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Silver / U.S. DollarSilver / U.S. DollarSilver / U.S. Dollar

Silver / U.S. Dollar

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XAGUSD trade ideas

XAGUSD - Silver, waiting for the release of the CPI index!Silver is in a 4 -hour timeframe, between EMA200 and EMA50, moving in its upside channel. If you continue the decline, we can see the channel floor failure and a limited support. Silver stabilization above the resistance range will provide us with silver climbing route to the supply zone, where we can sell at a proper risk. The U.S. employment report for December disrupted expectations regarding Federal Reserve policies, highlighting the Consumer Price Index (CPI) as a key market driver. Job creation surged by 256,000, significantly surpassing the forecast of 160,000, while the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%. This data triggered a sharp rise in Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield reaching 4.79%, the highest level since 2023. Higher yields increase the cost of holding non-yielding assets like silver, which could face headwinds if inflation accelerates. Markets now expect the Federal Reserve to hold off on rate cuts until at least June, a notable shift from earlier forecasts anticipating rate reductions in spring. A hotter-than-expected CPI report could further delay this timeline, strengthening the dollar and potentially putting pressure on silver prices. Silver’s industrial role continues to support its prices, driven by robust global demand in industries like solar energy and electronics.The production of solar panels, a major consumer of silver, remains a key driver, while geopolitical and inflationary risks have boosted silver’s appeal as an inflation hedge. Gold’s stability in a high-yield environment has indirectly supported silver as well. Amid stock market volatility, investors have turned to both precious metals. The S&P 500 has declined by 1% year-to-date. Additionally, concerns over tariffs and the fiscal policies proposed by President-elect Donald Trump have increased demand for safe-haven assets. Meanwhile, speculation around Trump’s potential policies, including tariffs and spending programs, has heightened market uncertainty. Markets are grappling with whether these measures will stoke inflation or negatively impact growth, creating mixed conditions for silver. Major global banks are revising their forecasts for Federal Reserve monetary policy. Bank of America has stated it no longer expects any rate cuts in 2025. The bank believes the Fed’s rate-cutting cycle has ended and sees the next move as more likely to be a rate hike. Citi has also updated its projections, announcing that it no longer anticipates a Fed rate cut in January. The bank now forecasts a potential rate reduction in May. Deutsche Bank has similarly noted that the Fed is unlikely to lower rates in the near term. The bank believes the Fed is currently in a wait-and-see mode, with future actions heavily dependent on incoming economic data. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs predicts the Fed will implement two 0.25% rate cuts in June and December, totaling 0.5% for the year. This marks a revision from its earlier forecast of a 0.75% reduction. Finally, Morgan Stanley has indicated that the likelihood of a near-term rate cut has diminished. However, the bank still considers a rate cut in March plausible due to an improving inflation outlook.
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
Elliott Wave View: Silver (XAGUSD) Double Three Correction in PrShort Term Elliott Wave view in Silver (XAGUSD) suggests cycle from 10.22.2024 high is in progress as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Down from 10.22.2024 high, wave (W) ended at 29.68 and wave (X) rally ended at 32.32 Wave (Y) lower is in progress and unfolding as another double three Elliott Wave structure in lower degree. Down from wave (Y), wave W ended at 28.73 as the 1 hour chart below shows. Up from wave W, wave ((w)) ended at 29.88 and wave ((x)) ended at 28.75. Wave ((y)) higher ended at 30.67 which completed wave X in higher degree. The metal has turned lower in wave Y. Down from wave X, wave (i) ended at 30.08 and wave (ii) rally ended at 30.37. Wave (iii) lower ended at 29.49 and wave (iv) rally ended at 29.75. The metal should extend lower in wave (v) to complete wave ((a)). Then it should rally in wave ((b)) to correct cycle from 1.10.2025 high for further downside. Near term, as far as pivot at 30.67 high stays intact, expect rally to fail in 3, 7, 11 swing for further downside.
FX_IDC:XAGUSD
by Elliottwave-Forecast
XAGUSD BULLISH FOR 90000 PIPSFundamental Drivers Global Economic Uncertainty: Historically, silver and gold are seen as safe-haven assets in times of economic stress. A significant crisis like a major recession, geopolitical tension, or even the collapse of major financial institutions could drive demand for precious metals. Inflation Concerns: High inflation or fears of currency devaluation could lead to a rush toward silver as a store of value. Central banks printing money or high fiscal deficits can also push investors into commodities. Interest Rates & Monetary Policy: If the Federal Reserve or other central banks turn dovish (cut interest rates) or increase money supply, it could weaken the USD, making silver more attractive as an alternative asset. Supply-Demand Imbalances: If there's a disruption in silver mining or an increase in industrial demand (e.g., for solar panels or electronics), this could push the price higher. 2. Technical Analysis Factors Long-term Trend: A breakout from key resistance levels, for example, if XAG/USD surges above a long-established trendline or a key psychological level (like $30, $40, etc.), could signal the beginning of a strong uptrend. Chart Patterns: Certain chart formations like a cup-and-handle, inverse head and shoulders, or large-scale triangles could indicate a breakout on the horizon. Fibonacci Retracement & Extension: If silver has recently been in a corrective phase, a Fibonacci extension could project higher levels, perhaps supporting the idea of a major move. Momentum Indicators: If indicators like RSI (Relative Strength Index) or MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) are signaling bullish momentum, it could support your forecast. 3. Market Sentiment & Speculation Retail & Institutional Interest: If there's a sudden surge in investor interest in silver, either from retail traders or institutional investors, this could cause rapid price appreciation. Silver, being a relatively small market compared to gold, can see sharp moves when investor interest spikes. Media Coverage: Sometimes, speculative hype driven by news outlets or social media can push prices in a strong direction, especially if traders are anticipating further gains. 4. Geopolitical/Global Events Pandemic, War, or Crisis: Major global events often cause investors to flock to precious metals. For example, during the COVID-19 pandemic, we saw substantial moves in precious metals as central banks worldwide engaged in massive monetary stimulus. 5. Supply Chain Disruptions & Physical Demand If there were disruptions in the global supply chain, it could lead to higher physical demand for silver, especially from industries that require it for manufacturing purposes (e.g., electronics, solar energy).
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by LORDOFTHETRADERS
XAGUSD - Silver on the verge of a big week?!Silver is trading in its ascending channel on the 4-hour timeframe, between the EMA200 and EMA50. If the correction continues, we could see a break of the channel bottom. A consolidation above $30.8 would provide a path for silver to rise to the supply zone, where we can sell at a risk-reward ratio. According to the annual report by StoneX Financial, silver has been highlighted as one of the top-performing metals among both precious and industrial metals in 2025.Benefiting from its dual nature as a monetary and industrial asset, silver is set to gain from rising gold prices and strong industrial demand. In the report, Rhona O’Connell, Head of Market Analysis at StoneX, and Natalie Scott-Gray, Senior Base Metals Analyst, forecasted that silver, alongside copper and tin, will outperform other metals in 2025. Despite strong performance in 2024, with a 22% growth, silver is expected to continue its upward trajectory in 2025 as the top-performing metal. This projection is based on robust market fundamentals and promising future prospects that have attracted the attention of investors. Part of this growth stems from the long-term outlook for the solar industry, although new U.S. government policies might slow this trend. Investment in silver is expected to remain strong, potentially even outpacing gold. While gold is predicted to peak this year, silver is anticipated to keep growing, with a price target of $33 by the end of 2025. Copper and tin have also garnered attention due to their critical roles in the transition to green energy and digitalization. On the other hand, aluminum has been identified as a metal requiring cautious investment. The report notes that silver has historically been recognized as a precious metal due to its history as a form of currency and its use in jewelry. According to the authors, “Silver’s relationship with gold has always played a key role in its price behavior, but in reality, this relationship is more complex.” They added, “Throughout much of last year, silver behaved like a precious metal during bullish trends and like a base metal during bearish ones. Statistical analysis confirms this. During U.S. economic recessions, silver’s price performance and correlation with gold and copper show that, more often than not, silver traded more in line with copper than gold. In inflationary periods, the opposite was true.” StoneX attributes this to two primary reasons. They explained, “Firstly, the nature of silver’s supply, which is predominantly derived as a byproduct of base metals or from industrial scrap, prevents it from having a clearly defined equilibrium price in the market. Secondly, a small group of investors sees silver as an accessible way to capitalize on gold’s price volatility.” They highlighted that “President-elect Trump’s suggestion that Mexico and Canada could face tariffs was enough to unsettle the market, even if these were likely negotiating stances rather than definitive decisions. Mexico accounts for approximately 25% of U.S. silver imports, and Canada accounts for 10%. Just the idea of such tariffs was enough to drive silver prices higher. However, as is often the case with silver, this movement was short-lived. This metal remains one of the most vulnerable to rapid and reactive price swings and should always be approached with caution.” They concluded, “Silver will continue to respond to any significant activity in the gold market and will also see further transitions this year due to the ongoing fundamental investment deficit growth. While it may face headwinds from European recession and potential oversupply of solar cells, its long-term outlook remains bright, likely continuing to attract investors and speculative funds.” Meanwhile, Lee Hardman, an analyst at MUFG Bank, noted that the depreciation of the dollar, following Trump’s statement that he would “prefer” not to impose new tariffs on China, might be limited. He argued that Trump is still likely to implement higher tariffs. Trump has called for lower interest rates and a weaker dollar to support the U.S. economy. However, his policies of higher tariffs, stricter immigration controls, and tax cuts, if enacted, “are likely to bolster U.S. yields and the dollar for a longer period.” In an interview with Fox News, Trump stated that he “prefers” not to impose new tariffs on China, suggesting the possibility of a trade deal.
OANDA:XAGUSDShort
by Ali_PSND
XAGUSD POSSIBLE TRADE SETUPPotential Trade Setup on XAGUSD The price just got rebounded from a very strong resistance, just to go back and retest the range bottom (support) zone, although the Trend remains bearish and the set Trendline keeps the price on the lower part of the market. The price is developing, and I am waiting for a retest of the previously broken support and used as resistance before I look for a SHORT trade. A BUY opportunity is at the top above the weekly Low at $30.953. You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Trade Responsibly! ❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
FOREXCOM:XAGUSDShort
by Adefxc
XAGUSD - Silver Awaiting Higher Numbers?!On the 4-hour timeframe, silver is above the EMA200 and EMA50 and is moving within its ascending channel. If the correction continues, we could see the channel bottom. A consolidation above $31 will provide us with a path for silver to rise to the supply zone, where we can sell with a risk-reward ratio. South West Pinnacle Exploration Ltd JV has announced plans to commence exploration for copper, gold, and silver in Block 22B in Oman. The company has signed a concession agreement for this block, which is believed to hold significant potential for further mineral discoveries. Despite some challenges, Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, holds a more optimistic view on silver due to its dual role as a monetary and industrial metal. He stated, “In 2024, increased industrial demand contributed to a physical deficit in the silver market. Sectors such as electronics and renewable energy, especially photovoltaic (solar) technologies, played a major role in driving this demand.” Hansen predicts that steady industrial demand will keep silver in a supply deficit heading into 2025. This deficit could be further exacerbated by rising financial or “paper demand” through financial instruments like exchange-traded funds (ETFs). (“Paper demand” refers to financial transactions without physical backing, such as futures, options, or ETFs, as opposed to physical commodity purchases.) Hansen also forecasts that silver will continue to outperform gold, expecting the gold-to-silver ratio to decline from the current level of 88 to around 75. His positive outlook on silver aligns with his broader perspective on the commodities market, where he sees greater potential for metals linked to the electrification of the global economy compared to those tied to construction. He elaborated: “Among industrial metals, we maintain our long-term positive outlook on those that support the energy transition, particularly copper and aluminum. These metals are crucial for investments in power grids and the rapid expansion of renewable energy installations, including electric vehicles, solar panels, and wind turbines. On the other hand, we see limited potential for metals like iron ore and steel, which are heavily reliant on construction sector demand.” Meanwhile, trade tensions between the United States and China, which escalated early in Trump’s presidency, appear to be easing. Many major companies, including Nike, Amazon, and Apple, stand to suffer significant losses if tariffs are increased. On the other hand, China has indicated that it is prepared to take retaliatory measures against any new tariffs, which could push Trump toward negotiation rather than confrontation. In response to Trump’s threat of imposing new tariffs on Chinese goods, China’s Ministry of Commerce stated: “China is willing to work with the United States to promote the sustainable and healthy development of economic and trade relations.”
OANDA:XAGUSDShort
by Ali_PSND
SILVER Will Go Up! Long! Here is our detailed technical review for SILVER. Time Frame: 8h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The price is testing a key support 30.469. Current market trend & oversold RSI makes me think that buyers will push the price. I will anticipate a bullish movement at least to 31.385 level. P.S Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
FOREXCOM:XAGUSDLong
by SignalProvider
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