XAGUSD01 trade ideas
Silver looking like a good buy on technicals, $34 targetI am putting on a small silver position, it really likes to bounce off the up sloping resistance line that is in orange, also indicated by the orange circles where it previously bounced. Good luck and please do your own research. Not financial advice.
SILVER: Move Up Expected! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse SILVER together☺️
The market is at an inflection zone and price has now reached an area around 29.921 where previous reversals or breakouts have occurred. And a price reaction that we are seeing on multiple timeframes here could signal the next move up so we can enter on confirmation, and target the next key level of 30.271.Stop-loss is recommended beyond the inflection zone.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
Reaction of Gold and Silver to the Increasing Fear FactorBy Ion Jauregui – ActivTrades Analyst
Gold, historically relegated to the background of investment strategies, is now emerging as a first-rate asset. This change is due to factors such as rising inflation, the implementation of aggressive tariff measures, and the geopolitical tensions that have intensified in recent years. The war in Ukraine and the consolidation of strategic alliances among Russia, China, and the BRICS countries have contributed to placing gold at the center of attention, demonstrating that its safe-haven nature is more necessary than ever.
One of the key elements in this transformation is the adoption of Basel Three regulations. This agreement, by classifying gold as a “tier one” asset, equates its value and security with that of US Treasury bonds. It is expected that, after its implementation in Europe in 2026, the same measure will be extended to US banks in 2027, which will increase institutional demand and further consolidate gold as a secure reserve in times of uncertainty.
Tariff policies, driven in part by decisions such as those of the Trump administration, generate inflation and increase economic uncertainty. Such a scenario forces banks and large investors to rethink their strategies, seeking in gold a refuge against the devaluation of other assets. The convergence of these factors suggests that the price of gold could reach, or even exceed, levels of $4,000 – it is even projected to reach $4,500 – as the increasing money supply pushes the valuation of the metal.
The Duality of Silver: Industry and Investment
Unlike gold, silver possesses a duality that makes it both an essential raw material for industry and an investment asset. While approximately 70% of annual silver production is allocated to industrial and manufacturing processes, the remainder is used in bars, coins, and ETFs. This characteristic creates inherent volatility, as movements in the economy directly affect its industrial demand.
During periods known as “fear trades,” when economic uncertainty spikes, silver tends to behave as a proxy for gold. Historically, compressions in the Gold/Silver Ratio (GSR) have been observed during these episodes, which in some cases have driven silver to experience abrupt price movements. Furthermore, the growing concern about market scarcity—due to a deficit between production and demand that could exceed 200 million ounces this year—adds another layer of complexity to the scenario.
Regulatory uncertainty exacerbates the situation: faced with the possibility of governmental interventions to “normalize” prices—for example, by banning ETFs or other forms of investment—silver could experience temporary declines. However, these interventions could be offset in the medium term by accumulated demand from investors eager to protect their assets in an environment of increasing instability.
Investor Strategy: The Pyramid Approach
There are a variety of experts who suggest that the strategy to navigate this volatile environment is the pyramid approach in investments in precious metals. At the base of this pyramid are the physical assets: the acquisition of gold and silver in the form of bars or coins represents the first line of defense against uncertainty and inflation. Gold, due to its role as a store of value, offers stability, while silver—with all its potential for revaluation in “fear trades”—adds dynamism to the portfolio. On top of this base, investment is complemented by mutual funds, ETFs, and stocks of mining producers and developers. Solid producers have historically generated the majority of returns, while developers, with high growth margins, offer opportunities to leverage market movements. This diversified structure helps manage risk and capitalize on both the stability of gold and the explosive potential of silver in times of tension.
Speculative Strategy
As throughout history there have always been speculators in the market, and derivatives trading is just one way to speculate, this type of trading obviously has a shorter time frame than that of the investor, but it facilitates quick entry and exit in the metals market. It clearly minimizes the risk of prolonged exposure, and the potential profits tend to be higher as well as the risks, due to leverage when trading with derivatives.
Silver Analysis (Ticker AT: SILVER)
Observing the silver chart, since Valentine’s Day, in February of last year, the asset has been climbing its price until October 2024, when its ascent stalled. Later, in the last week of March, the asset attempted to push its price above the highs established at $34,845 without success. After the “Trumpazo” tariff move triggered last Friday, its value fell back to $28,314, and this week we see how it has held the support at $28,768 and seems to have halted its decline. At this moment, the RSI is highly oversold at 33.38%, its current Point of Control (POC) is located around $30,556—a price it touched in yesterday’s session. The crossover of the 50-day moving average above the 100-day moving average occurred on January 31 on the daily chart, so if this trend does not change, it will continue supporting this expansion over the 200-day average. It is very likely that the precious metal will return to a recovery path, but this is highly dependent on the situation that may arise with gold as a reserve asset. If this price is not supported and the averages cross downward, we could see a correction to the price zone of $27,198. However, it should be noted that this support has been touched twice and it could be tested again at some point if the downward pressure continues.
Conclusion: Fear as the Driving Force of the Market
The current environment, marked by geopolitical and economic uncertainty, has turned fear into a determining factor for the behavior of precious metals. Gold, now considered a first-rate asset and backed by measures such as Basel Three, is emerging as a safe haven with projections that could exceed $4,000. On the other hand, silver, despite its volatility and industrial use, acts as a proxy for gold during “fear trades,” where its abrupt movements offer opportunities for investors. In short, this context underscores the importance of a diversified strategy—combining physical assets and derivatives trading—to protect wealth and take advantage of potential revaluations when fear drives the market.
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Gold to Silver ratio: Gold price vs Silver priceGold to Silver ratio during Covid crash (1:120+) vs Tariff crash (1:100+). Over extended cup & handle Gold breakout could come down to $2700-$2800. Could undervalue silver goes up massively & outperform gold from here? It could in my opinion. It happens once in every 25 yrs since 1970.
XAGUSD Weekly Analysis – Double Top Formation & Breakdown🧱 Chart Pattern Identified: Double Top Formation
The chart displays a classic Double Top pattern, a bearish reversal structure typically found at the end of an uptrend. This pattern forms when price reaches a resistance level twice, fails to break above it both times, and eventually breaks the neckline/support level, confirming a shift in market sentiment.
🔍 Key Components of the Chart:
1. Resistance Level (Tops) – ~$34.25
The market formed two significant peaks around the same level — labeled Top 1 and Top 2.
This level has proven strong resistance, as price was rejected both times after testing this zone.
This zone is marked with a light orange rectangle and a horizontal blue line labeled "Resistance Level".
2. Support Level (Neckline) – ~$28.80
This level served as the neckline of the Double Top.
After the second top, the price sharply declined and is currently approaching this key support zone, highlighted again in light orange.
A clean break and close below this zone on the weekly timeframe will be a strong confirmation of the bearish reversal.
3. Trendline Break – Bearish Shift in Momentum
A rising black dashed trendline supported the prior uptrend.
Price action has now broken below this trendline with strong bearish momentum, indicating that buyers have lost control.
This trendline break adds confluence to the bearish setup, supporting the validity of the pattern.
4. Bearish Projection Target – ~$22.47
The target is projected using the height of the Double Top pattern.
Measured from the resistance level ($34.25) to the support ($28.80), the vertical distance is ~5.45 USD.
Subtracting this from the neckline gives us a projected target:
28.80 - 5.45 = ~23.35 (rounded down to ~22.47 for technical cluster support).
This target area is marked with a blue arrow and labeled "Target" near the horizontal support at $22.47.
5. Stop Loss – ~$34.25
The logical invalidation point is placed just above the resistance zone and the second top.
A move above this level would invalidate the double top pattern, signaling that bulls have regained control.
📈 Price Action and Candlestick Behavior
The strong bearish weekly candle that broke below the trendline shows a decisive shift in sentiment.
The candle's large body and long range confirm institutional selling interest.
Volume (if shown) would likely support the move, but even price structure alone is highly telling here.
🎯 Trading Strategy & Setup
Component Details
Entry On a confirmed break and retest of $28.80 support (neckline)
Stop Loss Above $34.25 (Top 2)
Target $22.47
Risk/Reward ~1:2 or better
Timeframe Weekly (Swing Trade)
Bias Bearish
🧠 Concluding Notes
This chart provides a high-probability bearish setup rooted in classical charting principles. The Double Top is one of the most reliable reversal patterns, especially when:
Formed after a prolonged uptrend (as seen here),
Confirmed with a trendline break,
Followed by strong bearish momentum toward the neckline.
Traders should monitor the support zone around $28.80 closely for a potential breakdown. If confirmed, the target near $22.47 becomes a realistic medium-term objective.
SILVER: The Market Is Looking Down! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse SILVER together☺️
The price is near a wide key level
and the pair is approaching a significant decision level of 29.788 Therefore, a strong bearish reaction here could determine the next move down.We will watch for a confirmation candle, and then target the next key level of 28.884..Recommend Stop-loss is beyond the current level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
Long SLVThis is a long term trade which may take longer time to develop and contingent on positive price action through key resistance levels.
First level to watch is the 30 handle, which is currently being tested. Break above 30 should take us close to the most recent high in Oct-2024, just below the 35 handle.
Assuming price action advances past the 35 handle, we'd likely see a quick move to new highs around the 52 handle.
Additional rate cuts in 2025, as well as increased deficit spending would likely be the fundamental monetary catalyst to drive prices higher.
Silver Tested Key Resistance LevelFenzoFx—Silver tested the $30.81 resistance level today. If this holds, the downtrend may resume, targeting $28.75 and possibly $27.73 if selling pressure persists.
A bullish reversal could occur if XAG/USD exceeds and stabilizes above $30.81.
>>> Trade XAG/USD at FenzoFx Decentralized Forex Broker.
Silver Holds Ground as Markets Eye Fed CutsSilver hovered around $30 per ounce on Monday, staying volatile as markets reacted to Trump’s escalating trade war. The metal dropped 16% over three sessions as recession fears sparked a broad selloff, with traders liquidating metals to cover losses. China retaliated with tariffs after the US imposed levies on all countries, with others expected to follow. Trump’s tariffs excluded copper, gold, energy, and certain minerals. Despite the slump, silver may regain support as markets bet on more Fed rate cuts this year.
Technically first resistance level is located at 30.90. In case of its breach 31.40 and 32.50 could be monitored respectively. On the downside, the first support is at 29.00. 28.40 and 27.50 would become the next support levels if this level is passed.
Silver Wave Analysis – 7 April 2025- Silver reversed from the support zone
- Likely to rise to resistance level 30.75
Silver recently reversed up from the support zone between the strong support level 28.80 (which formed Double Bottom at the end of December) and the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from this support zone stopped the previous sharp downward correction (2) from the end of March.
Silver can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 30.75 (the former monthly low from February, acting as the resistance after it was broken at the start of April).
Silver’s Deep Retrace: Long Setup with Bullish Potential I’ve entered a long trade on Silver (XAG/USD) after observing a deep retrace to the 0.7 Fibonacci level on the daily timeframe. The entry at $28.96 is positioned strategically based on historical support and the current technical setup.
The stop loss is set at $26.54 to mitigate risk, while the take profit target is $36.00, aligning with a potential bullish continuation. In the bearish scenario, a break below $27.50 will prompt a reassessment and tighter risk management. Conversely, on the bullish side, breaking above $32.50 will strengthen the case for holding towards the TP.
Silver’s price action showcases its potential for a significant bounce back, supported by current geopolitical and macroeconomic conditions.
Fundamentals:
1. Federal Reserve’s Hawkish Stance:
The Fed’s updated projections for rate cuts in 2025 have pressured silver prices, as a stronger dollar and rising Treasury yields (above 4.5%) diminish the appeal of non-yielding assets. However, easing inflation in the long term could rejuvenate demand for precious metals.
2. Geopolitical Tensions:
Although silver traditionally benefits from uncertainty, recent macroeconomic headwinds, such as concerns about tariffs under the new Trump administration and sluggish global economic recovery, have overshadowed its safe-haven status.
3. Industrial Outlook:
Challenges in the industrial demand for silver, particularly from China’s solar panel production slowdown, add pressure. However, as inflation stabilizes and geopolitical risks unfold, silver could regain its industrial and safe-haven allure.
Technicals:
• Entry: $28.96
• Stop Loss: $26.54
• Take Profit: $36.00
• Key Levels:
• Bearish Scenario: Manage position below $27.50.
• Bullish Case: Strength above $32.50 confirms upward momentum.
This setup leverages a confluence of technical retracement, macroeconomic factors, and the potential for a trend reversal. Stay sharp and pay yourself as the market unfolds.
Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
SILVER SENDS CLEAR BULLISH SIGNALS|LONG
SILVER SIGNAL
Trade Direction: long
Entry Level: 3,050.2
Target Level: 3,274.5
Stop Loss: 2,899.9
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 8h
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
Silver- sell on rallies (breaks major trend line support)
Trend line support- $31.95 (trend line joining $28.79 and $30.81)
Silver crashed more than 7% after Tariff announcement. It hit a intraday low of $31.40 and is currently trading around $31.65.
The gold/silver ratio climbed to 95.50, reflecting silver's relative weakness compared to gold.
Trading Strategy and Key Levels for Silver
The commodity is trading below short term (34 and 55 EMA) and long-term moving average (200- EMA) in the 4-hour chart. The near-term support is around $31.25 and any violation below will drag the commodity to $30.75/$30/$29.60/$29/$28.40. The immediate resistance is at $32.60 any breach above targets $33/$35/$36.
It is good to sell on rallies around $32 with a stop-loss at $32.60 for a TP of $30/$28.40.
#XAGUSD – Silver OutlookHere’s your refined and engaging version of the **#XAGUSD (Silver)** analysis, with improved grammar, flow, and added emojis for platforms like TradingView, Instagram, or Telegram:
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## ⚪ **#XAGUSD – Silver Outlook**
🔮 **What I'm Watching:**
Price is likely to **tap into the Daily Order Block** in the **$28.40–$29.00** area,
which aligns closely with the **0.50 Fibonacci retracement** level 📏.
📌 This zone could act as a **strong reaction point** for buyers.
🕵️ **What to Look For:**
If silver shows **bullish rejection signs** from this zone — ideally a **bullish H4 candle** forming right after tapping it —
then a **small buy setup** could be considered 🎯.
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📌 As always, wait for proper confirmation — don’t jump in blindly.
Want me to make a visual version for Instagram or share a lower timeframe setup next?
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