SILVERFactors Affecting Silver’s Trade Directional Bias Next Week
Fed Policy and Rate Cuts:
Market Expectations: Two Fed rate cuts in 2025 are priced in, but uncertainty over timing (e.g., June vs. earlier) may cause volatility.
Impact: Delayed cuts → USD↑, silver↓; Accelerated cuts → USD↓, silver↑.
Industrial Demand:
Supply-Demand Imbalance: A projected 149M oz deficit in 2025 due to high demand for solar, electronics, and EVs.
Supply Risks: Q1 production growth (+15.4% YoY) has eased short-term pressure, but long-term deficits support prices.
Safe-Haven Demand:
Geopolitical Risks: Trade wars (Trump’s April 2 tariffs) and Middle East tensions could boost silver as a hedge.
Gold’s Influence:
Gold-to-Silver Ratio: At 88:1, below historical peaks, suggesting silver may outperform gold if the ratio normalizes.
Conclusion
Bearish Bias Likely Next Week:
Resistance Test: Silver faces strong technical resistance at overbought territory, favoring profit-taking.
Fed Uncertainty: Delayed rate cuts or USD strength could pressure prices toward $32.50.
Upside Catalysts: A break above strong supply roof or geopolitical escalation (tariffs) may trigger a rally to a new all time high