XAUGBP•••As today marks the beginning of a new month( December ).There seems to be low volatility in the market... so we should trade with care .
XAUGBP trade ideas
XAU?GBP LONG TradeGod_1.708OANDA:XAUGBP
Long.
I called xauusd short to 1800 in Aug and smashed all my targets. check the linked idea below.
this is the reversal of that.
Will Gold goes for a hike lower?Gold did its thing in 2020, the worse financial year since WWII, and I have to say it was nothing impressive. Investors pilled up in foreign stocks and digital assets, gold resembles more and more a pure commodity than a monetary safe heaven.
Currently is hitting the 200ma, and for me it will keep going down, perhaps to retest lower levels, after that a long consolidation.
'Gold looks tired and out of energy', capital is slowly leaving Gold towards other greener pastures IMO.
2021 will be worse for Gold than 2020.
XAUGBP - Long (be cautious)Confluences:
1) XAUGBP has broken out of what looked to be a descending triangle pattern
2) Price closed above 20/50/100 EMA after thursdays rally and held above this on friday
3) XAUUSD rise will give positive sentiment to gold (correlation)
4) Biden victory
5) GBP weakness seen all of last week
6) Linked to point 5 - Brexit uncertainty / news releases stating significant differences still exists between UK / EU / rumours biden is pressuring Boris to backdown or else there will be no trade deal
The only difficulty with this trade is the RRR - just below the bottom of the previous descending triangle pattern is a sensible place for a SL - however this gives a potential for a -2.4%. I feel I may miss out on this trade by waiting for price to come down further before initiating a long to give better risk setup
XAUGBP Long I wrote details in chart but I have to say
Because of RSI H4 ; 70 . it need to rest or maybe retracement so be patient and wait for good entry in Lower time Frames and candlesticks Formations
GBP is falling right now . You can find it in A
and market sentiment
i have an idea that XAU is going to touch 2040usd this year again Easily
my strategy is based on
1 : support resistance lines
2 : fibonacci levels
3 : harmonic pattern (Gartley in h4 time frame )
4 : harmonic pattern (Ab=Cd in H4 time frame )
5 : trend line trading
6 : channel Trading
7 : following Trend
8 : market sentiment
9 : daily indicators (Rsi 54 + ... )
Gold to make a cycle low around September 7thLooking for gold to put in a cycle low around September 7th before a strong move higher.
Will be looking for longs inside the green rectangle early September.
Keep an eye open this is a nice opportunity I think.
XAUGBP Settles at 30 minute POC. Augurs well for bullish moveThe clear "P" shape of the profile and recent news of high profile investors selling banks and buying gold miners suggest quite a strong opening this week in gold.
I find the GBP gold price to be less prone to being pushed around by competing trading strategies that can muddy the USD gold price.
Significant upside to above GBP1580 while unlikely, cannot be ruled out this week, on my read.
🥇What would you rather hold the GBP or a shiny gold rock? Above is a 13 year chart of the price of gold in GBP(£), each bar on the chart represents 1 month of price action for gold.
The first part of this post talks about the price action of gold vs GBP over the 13 years, the second half states the bull/bear cases for gold going forward, it would be great if you add your own bull/bear cases so we can get a discussion going.
Gold from 2007-2020
Gold’s last bull market started to pick up speed at the start of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis.
The Bank of England started QE1 and cut rates down to 1% all the way from as high as 7.5% in 1998 - many of us are too young to remember rates that high, me included :).
QE (inflating money supply) and cutting rates debases the GBP because there’s more in supply, and we receive less interest reducing the desirability to hold it.
These two factors combined with uncertainty and fear during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008 drove gold to a record high of £1,112 per ounce.
In September 2011 gold made an ATH.
After the GFC many banks were restructured (bailed out), we were told that QE would come to an end and that QT (quantitive tightening) would start, along with an increase in interest rates once the economy got back on its feet.
A reduce in money supply (QT) and an increase in interest rates is bearish for gold, because why hold a shiny rock when you can hold GBP that pays interest?
This put gold into a bear market from September 2011 – January 2016.
After the GFC interest rates still 0.25% and not near the 5% levels before GFC of 2008, but we all believed it would happen in due course and jumped on the next bull market (2011-2020).
Nothing really happened until February 2016 - Brexit.
This vote debased the GBP and started the new bull market in gold vs GBP.
In June 2016 gold received another leg up as BoE started to talk about re-starting QE (QE2), which it did so in August 2016.
The BOE managed to raise interest rate from 0.25% to 0.75% by August 2018 which kept gold in line, investors expected more rate hikes in the coming years and kept hold of their GB.
The UK could not sort out a deal for Brexit and the GBP was debased again compared to the price of gold in June 2019.
Fast-forward to March 2020 and the lockdown happened, BOE then cut interest rates back to 0.25% and starts QE infinity – then gold took off.
This where we are now, gold at an ATH around £1,5000 and what looks like QE to never stop with interest rates staying low for longer is the central bank mantra at the FED/ECB/BOE.
What is going to happen next? Here are my bull and bear cases for gold vs GBP, again feel free to share your own below.
Bull cases for gold?
* If interest rates keep moving lower to negative, investors are going to move out of GBP and into gold. UK government bonds for the 2 year and 5 year gilts are currently negative, this is an indicator that negative interest rates are around the corner. If you’re going to be charged -0.05% for bank deposits, there’s less reason to hold GBP.
* If the UK cannot get a good deal with the EU/USA, fewer countries are going to want to hold or trade in GBP, creating less supply for the GBP causing it to weaken further.
* More QE and government programs means more GBP needs to be put into circulation. This will further devalue the GBP. The current bailouts for companies, furlough scheme, bounce back loans etc increase government debt, which needs to be paid by taxation or inflation (money printing).
If you think universal basic income is coming, or governments will need to support businesses and people for an ongoing amount of time, this is bearish for GBP and bullish for gold.
Bear cases for gold?
The bear cases are the opposite of bull cases.
* If we get a great trade with the EU/USA and other nations, they will want to trade in GBP, increasing the demand and purchasing power.
* If we don’t need more QE and can quickly raise interest rates to pre 2008 levels (5%~), people are going to get out of gold and back into GBP as it pays great interest.
* If the UK can reduce its debt and not grow it to the point of no return
* A v-shape recovery.
For me, gold is the goalkeeper in my portfolio and stocks are the strikers.
Stocks pay dividends and give me a stake in a profitable business, if I can pick the right one that has growth potential I can make an income via dividends and growth through price.
Gold does not return that, but it does provide safety against the debasement of the GBP, and currently plays a better role in protection than bonds.
I also like the fact that gold is outside of the monetary system which I think is broken, I like that safety over bonds (buying debt) and that gold has a 7,000+ year history of being used as money.
The current price of gold looks way over-extended right now, but the entire chart looks bullish, I will be looking to add on a meaningful 10-30% pullback in the coming months, but not at this price.
XAUGBP at 30 Minute Profile's POC Looking at the XAUGBP market to give some clues as to the resolution to the standoff in XAUUSD. Price has come back to the POC at 1508 only to see the trading volume just lower puch the POC down a tad. Maybe nothing but could give a clue that further downside in XAUUSD may be afoot.
Gold (GBP) daily- Up Channel, within Upchannel. Gold (GBP) daily- Up Channel, within Upchannel.
Futher deatils about Up and Down channels:
thepatternsite.com
LONGDo we test long on this pair? What do you think?.
You have to be careful and analyze the price action before making the decision. We must think that nobody knows what will happen. I'm just trying to put the odds in my favor. Then the price will do what it has to do. So let's see what happens.
Gold coming buying opportunityI think Gold is going to revisit the 1300 level in GDP, I am looking to enter longs between 1300-1320. Any unexpected event in the economy favouring Gold can put this off.
I think if the market sells off hard into a deeper bear market, it could take Gold with it too, in that case the Gold could deep lower than 1300, which would be an amazing opportunity, however due to extreme central banks intervention, I see a controlled descent, which would favour Gold IMO.
Gold in GBP terms reached PRICE and TIME alignment.Gold in GBP terms reached PRICE and TIME alignment. Speculative short positions look attractive at this intersection.
XAUGBP 1D shortXAUGBP the price can't break though the resistance point (1391.092) so the market is going short
Next entry for a Gold position in GBPThis is a possible area for an entry in the Gold run, IMO Gold ain't gonna go lower that that, it is just taking a break from the last 2 days run. The next coming months will be all about Gold.
