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XAUUSD trade ideas

XAU/USD Trendline Breakout (30.07.2025)The XAU/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Trendline Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours. Possible Long Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position around Trendline Of The Pattern. Target Levels: 1st Resistance – 3360 2nd Resistance – 3377 🎁 Please hit the like button and 🎁 Leave a comment to support for My Post ! Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI_TA_TRADING Thank you. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:XAUUSDLong
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
31
Potential Reversal After Complex CorrectionThe current movement of gold (XAUUSD) is estimated to be forming part of wave ii of wave (c) of wave under the black label scenario. This implies that XAUUSD has the potential to undergo a deeper correction, targeting the 3,073–3,184 range. However, under the alternative red label, the price action appears to be developing a triangle pattern as part of wave of wave 4. In this scenario, XAUUSD still holds the potential for further upside toward the 3,394–3,438 area, which also coincides with a Fibonacci cluster zone, serving as a critical resistance region.
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by herdityawicaksana
1
Gold short – Head and Shoulders Setting Up on 15min?There’s a potential head and shoulders pattern forming on the 15-minute chart. 📌 What I’m watching for: A 15min candle close back inside the neckline range Lower volume on the right shoulder vs. the left (to confirm weakening momentum) 🧠 Trade Idea (Short bias) 🎯 Entry: 3380.9 ❌ Stop Loss: 3388.0 ✅ Take Profit 1 (50%): 3358.9 ✅ Take Profit 2 (50%): 3346.3 ⚖️ Risk/Reward: 3.8R This setup lines up with my trading method that focuses on structure, volume, and clean risk/reward. 🤔 What are your thoughts on gold today? Are we about to roll over — or will bulls push through resistance?
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDShort
by GTradingMethod
2
SELL THE RALLIES ON GOLD 🟡 Gold Daily Time Frame Analysis 🔍 Market Structure Overview Gold has been consolidating in a broad range near its all-time highs, indicating a bullish exhaustion. This prolonged sideways movement is characteristic of a distribution phase, often preceding a potential trend reversal. The current price action lacks strong directional momentum, as buyers appear exhausted near record highs. The distribution pattern implies that institutions may be preparing to offload long positions and potentially build short positions for a future bearish move. --- 🟥 Red Rectangle – Resistance Zone (Potential Distribution Area) Price has repeatedly tested this zone without a successful breakout. This zone likely contains heavy sell-side liquidity and institutional supply. Key Resistance Levels within this zone: $3,400 $3,425 $3,480 This repeated failure to break higher reinforces the possibility of a trend reversal from this area. --- 🟦 Blue Rectangle – Minor Support (Liquidity Engineered Zone) Gold is reacting to this minor support zone, showing temporary buying interest. This may indicate that institutions are building liquidity, luring in buyers to drive price back toward the red zone. Once sufficient liquidity is accumulated, smart money may offload remaining long positions into resistance, and initiate a bearish trend. Key Support Levels: $3,300 – immediate minor support $3,200 $3,100 $3,000 – major psychological and technical support --- 📈 Institutional Price Behavior This price behavior aligns with Wyckoff Distribution Theory, where: Price consolidates near the top Demand weakens Institutions offload to late buyers Downtrend begins after liquidity sweep or Upthrust (UTAD) --- 🧠 Conclusion Gold’s ranging structure near ATH suggests we may be in a distribution phase. The reaction to the minor support implies a liquidity-building move to draw price back to resistance before a potential markdown phase (bearish trend) begins.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by enwemadufranklyn1989
2
XAUUSDGold (XAUUSD) has been undeniably one of the most rewarding instruments to trade this year. Whether that be longs or shorts. Well, after the latest drop let’s be clear on one thing…. There is another big one to come. There is a 4 year cycle of behaviour to not be ignored. Question, what happened this time in the Gold charts 4 years ago? If you know the answer then you need to be setting up for sells. Of course there have been many highs made this year and some are anticipating a new ATH before the drop. It is possible based on price action in 2025. If history is to repeat itself, the open of Asian Session tonight (030825) could see a continuation up of the explosion up of Friday (010825). This should result in the sweeping out of stop losses of any sells that have been held over the weekend. The closure of the sells will create buying pressure sending price further up to retest at least the most significant swing high. At and from this level and a few more above, we can look out for sustained selling to break below 3300 and beyond. It is just theory at this point but should be taken into account. Potential sell areas: 3368-3370 3378-3380 3400-3405 3412-3416 3428-3430 3433-3438 3444-3450 Of course risk management is key. But from the highest point that price reaches early next week could be the start of a very good sell. All entry zone me should have an initial 1:2RR while holding partial sells with extended TPs as far as 3233,3217,3198,3159,3099. Good luck 🤞 This is not financial advice and should be taken with a pinch of salt.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by Squeeezy-Trader
2
Gold – Party’s Over… or Just Getting Started?Yesterday was… interesting, but honestly, not that surprising. Price shot up to 3385 like it was chasing the last drink at a party. The real question now is: what happens after the party? Because today, the confetti’s still in our hair, but someone has to clean up this mess. This analysis will go deeper than usual, because we’ve got geopolitical drama on the horizon that could seriously shake up the price of gold. The Setup – Trend or Just a Power Nap? Gold is taking a breather – not the end of the trend, just a little post-party nap. The 1-hour EMAs are still pointing upwards, but there’s a slight hesitation showing. Watch the 50 EMA (the orange one) – that might be the judge and jury for gold’s fate. If price breaks below, we could see a quick visit to the 3340 zone. Trend strength? Still strong at 41. Translation: The party isn’t over yet. But on the 1-hour chart, this bullish move is starting to lose steam – trend strength is above the horizon but flattening. What’s more, our short line is sneaking up toward the horizon too… if price dips further, that line might peek above. That’s a classic “trend fatigue” signal – like a boxer taking a breather between rounds. Yesterday RSI punched through the overbought zone, then promptly got smacked down from 3385. Now it's calmly drifting lower. Currently, RSI is below the 4-hour RSI-EMA, which is a shortish sign… but hey, we never enter trades based on RSI alone, right? 😉 Bonus: That Fair Value Gap (FVG) Gold left us a beautiful FVG on the chart – like bulls sprinting so fast they spilled their coffee on the carpet. This created a “gap” around 3300–3340. Markets hate mess. They’re perfectionists. And they often go back to clean up spilled coffee before moving on. This gap will likely be filled – the only question is: when? Will we get it today? Not likely. But hang tight… we’re not done. 🔮 My Take… Today I expect a gentle slide. Price feels drawn to 3355 like a moth to flame. 3340 looks like solid support, if price decides to keep sliding. Do I think we’ll fill the entire FVG today? Nah. There’s not enough momentum behind this right now. But there’s a wild card: the Geopolitical Joker. If Israel launches a full-on ground offensive in Gaza, that’s like tossing a boulder into a calm lake. War = Uncertainty = FEAR. And fear drives money into gold like it’s a medieval castle during a dragon attack. When fear hits, RSI doesn’t matter. FVG? Forget it. EMAs? Irrelevant. Money flees risk assets (stocks, crypto) and dives headfirst into the safety of gold. Two Battle Plans Ahead: 1. The Cleaning Crew Scenario: No geopolitical drama yet. Price slides gently, fills part of the FVG, maybe tests 3340. If we reach 3330, gold might chill there, gather strength at the 3315 support, and maybe bounce for a new bullish run. 2. The Iron Dome Scenario: The news hits. Boom. Fear skyrockets. Gold ignores all technicals, skips the cleaning, and rockets toward 3400, maybe even 3440. No questions asked. What Would I Do Today? Time for the sniper strategy. No chasing the herd. No standing in front of a speeding train. We wait for clear signals. Buying now? Risky – price might retrace. Shorting in this bullish mess + geopolitical tension? Market suicide. Patience is key. If price just chops sideways while everyone holds their breath over the headlines… entering a trade now could backfire spectacularly. Not financial advice – just a gold-obsessed human sharing thoughts. What about you? Will gold clean up the mess, or will the fear-fueled stampede into gold send us sky-high? And now… for my fellow gold-hunters, the same analysis in Hungarian, because some things just hit harder in your mother tongue A tegnapi nap érdekes volt, de lehetett rá számítani. Most az a kérdés mi jön a buli után mert 3385-ig felnyomták az árat. A mai elemzés kicsit részletesebb lesz mert vannak geopolitikai hírek ami nagyon befolyásolhatja az arany árát. A jelenlegi megpihenés még nem a trend végét jelenti, csak rápihenés a tegnapi bulira. Konfetti még a hajakba, de rendetlenséget hagytak, így a takarítás ideje jött el. Az EMA-k az 1 órás charton felfelé trendet mutatnak, de ott is látszik egy kicsi megtorpanás. Az 50-es EMA (narancssárga) lehet az a pont, ami eldönti az arany sorsát. Ha átszakítjuk, akkor jöhet a 3340-es szint. Arena TrendIQ: A trenderő még mindig erős. 41-es értékkel mutatja, hogy itt nincs vége a bulinak. Jelenleg a felfelé menő trend kezd gyengülni az 1 órás charton de még a horizont felett van. Ami érdekes hogy a short vonalunk is megközelítette a horizontot. Ha még lejjebb fog ereszkedni az ár akkor mennyire befigyel horizont fölé. Arena RSI: Tegnap is benéztünk a túlvett szint felett azóta szépen csorog lefelé ami látszik a charton is. Felszúrt 3385-ig túlvett szint megvolt majd kapott egy pofont és lefelé vette az irányt. Jelenleg a 4 órás RSI-EMA alatt van, ami önmagában shortos jel, de csak RSI-re nem lépünk be pozícióba. Mit látunk még? Azt hogy hagyott nekünk egy szép FVG-t az aranyunk. A bikák annyira siettek felfelé, hogy "kiöntötték a kávét" a szőnyegre. Ez a grafikonon egy üres terület, egy "rés", amit az árfolyam otthagyott maga után (kb. a 3300-3340 közötti zónában). A piac pedig perfekcionista, utálja a rendetlenséget és a foltokat. Nagyon gyakran visszatér, hogy feltakarítsa maga után kiöntött kávét, és még tovább menne. Ezt hívjuk Fair Value Gap (FVG) betöltésnek. Számíthatunk rá? Hogy a viharba ne... De nem ma! 🔮szerintem... Ma finom lecsorgás lesz a piacon. A 3355-ös szint vonzza most az árfolyamot. A 3340-es sáv jó támasznak ígérkezik, ha tovább szeretne lefelé menni. Szerintem ma nem tölti be a teljes FVG-t, mert nincs mögötte ebben a pillanatban azaz erő, ami odáig levinné az árat. És van itt még valami, ami totál áthúzhatja a szép finoman lecsorgás elméletét, ami nem más, mint a Geopolitikai Joker. Ha Izrael valóban megindítja a szárazföldi hadműveletet, az egy hatalmas kő a tóba dobva. A mechanizmus: Háború és bizonytalanság = FÉLELEM. A félelem pedig a befektetőket a legősibb menedékbe, az aranyba hajtja. Ilyenkor nem számít az RSI, az FVG, vagy a mozgóátlag. A pénz a kockázatosabb eszközökből (pl. részvények, kripto) az aranyba menekül. Az arany ilyenkor olyan mint a viharban a stabil, masszív kőház. Amikor kint dörög az ég és villámlik, mindenki oda akar bejutni, biztonságba. Most van két forgatókönyvünk tehát, így a helyzet ravasz és furfangos. A technikai kép egy kisebb, egészséges visszahúzódást, a "takarító hadműveletet" valószínűsíti. A fundamentális kép pedig ennek az ellenkezőjét. A Takarító Brigád Forgatókönyv: A geopolitikai helyzet nem szól bele azonnal. Az árfolyam szépen lecsorog, hogy feltöltse az FVG egy részét, de a 3340-ig totál egészséges lenne. Ha meg lesz a 3330 ott erőt gyűjthet esetleg az alatta lévő 3315-ös támaszon és onnan indulhatna egy új stabilabb emelkedésnek. A Vaskupola Forgatókönyv: Jön a hír... A félelem-faktor az egekbe szökik. Az arany ignorál minden technikai szintet elfelejti a takarítást és azonnal kilő célba véve a 3400-as, majd a 3440-es szinteket. Én mi tennék ma? A legjobb stratégia most a "lesben álló mesterlövése". Nem rohanunk a csorda után és nem is állunk a vonat elé. Megvárjuk, amíg a piac dönt. A jelenlegi szintről vásárolni kockázatos a visszahúzódás miatt. Shortolni pedig egy ilyen bikás trendben és geopolitikai helyzetben öngyilkosság. Várjunk a jelekre, mert ha csak simán oldalazás lesz se le, se pontosan azért mert mások is figyelnek a háttérre, akkor nagyon megszívhatjuk. Ez nem befektetési tanács, csak egy aranyrajongó véleménye. Ti hogyan látjátok? Jöhet a takarítás, vagy a menedék aranyban most mindent visz?
PYTH:XAUUSD
by Katsumi-Nohara
1
Gold is under pressure. Can the upward trend continue?On Thursday, gold rose rapidly in the European session, reaching around 3397, but failed to successfully break through the 3400 integer mark; it currently fell back slightly and fluctuated around 3375. Judging from the 4-hour chart, the price is currently running close to the middle track of the Bollinger band; since the market opened this week, the gold price has continued to run above the middle track of the Bollinger band. Despite the slight decline, it has remained within the upward trend channel and has continuously set new highs. The current upward pressure position remains at 3390-3400, and the key support level is around 3370, which is also the crossover position of the current MA5, 10, and 20 moving averages. The RSI indicator remains above its midline, indicating that bullish momentum remains. Quaid believes that as long as the price remains above 3370 in the US session, any pullback will be a sign of accumulating upward momentum. Gold still has the trend of hitting the 3400 integer mark. Trading strategy: Go long near 3370, stop loss at 3360, profit range 3380-3390-3400. Short near 3400, stop loss at 3410, profit range 3375-3365-3355.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by quaid_2
1
Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD August 6, 2025📊 ________________________________________ 🔍 Momentum Analysis • D1 Timeframe: Daily momentum is showing signs of a potential bearish reversal. However, we need to wait for today’s candle to close to confirm the signal. While waiting for confirmation, price may still experience a minor upward move on lower timeframes, but the current bullish momentum is weak and unlikely to extend far. • H4 Timeframe: Momentum is also preparing to reverse. We need to observe the current H4 candle for confirmation. Notably, the reversal signal is forming just below the overbought zone, suggesting there may be one more upward push before a potential decline. • H1 Timeframe: Momentum is approaching the oversold zone. It may take 1–2 more bearish candles before a short-term bullish rebound occurs. ________________________________________ 🌀 Elliott Wave Structure Update Yesterday’s bullish move was disappointing — instead of pushing directly to the 3402 or 3419 target zones to complete Wave 5, price only broke slightly above 3385 before reversing. This behavior complicates wave analysis by introducing conflicting possibilities. We currently consider two main scenarios: Scenario 1: Wave 5 is not yet complete • Given that D1 momentum is preparing to reverse downward, it’s unlikely that the current move is Wave 1 of Wave 5. A more likely scenario is that Wave 3 of Wave 5 has completed and price is currently in Wave 4. • The current corrective structure has stopped at the 0.382 Fibonacci level. As long as price remains above 3370 (the 0.5 Fib level), this strengthens the case for a Wave 4 retracement before another leg up in Wave 5. • Since bullish strength appears limited, we now focus on two main target zones for Wave 5: 3395 and 3402, instead of the previous high at 3419. Scenario 2: Full 5-wave structure is complete – now in correction • If the 5-wave pattern has already finished, the current decline marks the beginning of a corrective phase. • With current momentum conditions, this is still a viable scenario. However, due to the remaining upside possibility, we recommend waiting for today’s D1 candle to confirm momentum before taking any trade. ________________________________________ 📌 Trade Plan For experienced traders: • Wait for price to reach the 3395–3402 zones. • Look for reversal signals in those areas to enter short positions. Suggested trade plan for newer traders: • Sell Zone: 3395 – 3398 • Stop Loss: 3408 • Take Profits: o TP1: 3385 o TP2: 3370 o TP3: 3349 ________________________________________ ✅ Note: This trade plan should be reassessed after today’s D1 candle closes for confirmation of the momentum shift.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by WavePoint_FX
1
From Execution to Adaptation: Enter Dynamic ProbabilitiesIn the previous article , we looked at a real trade on Gold where I shifted from a clean mechanical short setup to an anticipatory long — not because of a hunch, but because the market behavior demanded it. That decision wasn’t random. It was based on new information. On structure. On price action. It was based on something deeper than just “rules” — it was about recognizing when the probability of success had changed. That brings us to a powerful but rarely discussed concept in trading: 👉 Dynamic probabilities. ________________________________________ 📉 Static Thinking in a Dynamic Market Most traders operate with static probabilities — whether they realize it or not. They assign a probability to a trade idea (let’s say, “this breakout has a 70% chance”) and treat that number as if it’s written in stone. But markets don’t care about your numbers. The moment new candles print, volatility shifts, or structure morphs — the probability landscape changes. What once looked like a clean setup can begin to deteriorate. Conversely, something that looked uncertain can start aligning into high-probability territory. Yet many traders fail to adapt because they’re emotionally invested in the original plan. They’ve already “decided” what the market should do, so they stop listening to what the market is actually doing. ________________________________________ 🧠 Dynamic Probabilities Require Dynamic Thinking To trade dynamically, you must be able to update your internal odds in real time. This doesn’t mean constantly second-guessing or overanalyzing — it means refining your bias based on evolving context: • A strong breakout followed by weak continuation? → probability drops. • Price holding above broken resistance with clean structure? → probability increases. • Choppy pullback into support with fading volume? → potential reversal builds. It’s like playing poker: you might start with a good hand, but if the flop goes against you, your odds change. If you ignore that and keep betting like you’ve got the nuts, you’re not being bold — you’re being blind. ________________________________________ 📍 Back to the Gold Trade In the Gold trade, the initial short was based on structure: broken support turned resistance. The entry was mechanical, the reaction was clean. All good. But then: • Price came back fast into the same zone. • Sellers failed to defend it decisively. • The second leg down was sluggish, overlapping, and lacked momentum. • Compression began to form. That’s when the probability of continued downside collapsed — and the probability of a reversal increased. The market had changed. So did my bias. That’s dynamic probability in action — not because of a feeling, but because of evolving evidence. ________________________________________ 🧘‍♂️ The Psychological Trap Many traders intellectually accept the idea of being flexible — but emotionally, they cling to certainty. They fear being “inconsistent” more than they fear being wrong. But in a dynamic environment, consistency of thinking is not about repeating the same action — it’s about consistently reacting to what’s real. True consistency is not mechanical repetition. It’s mental adaptability grounded in logic. ________________________________________ 🧠 Takeaway If you want to trade professionally, you must upgrade your mindset from fixed-probability execution to fluid-probability reasoning. That doesn’t mean chaos. It means structured flexibility. Your edge isn’t just in spotting patterns — it’s in knowing when those patterns are breaking down. And acting accordingly, before your PnL does it for you. Disclosure: I am part of TradeNation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
TRADENATION:XAUUSDEducation
by Mihai_Iacob
1
GOLD Forming Bullish Pattern Read DescriptionGold is showing bullish momentum after a weaker-than-expected NFP report, which undermines the USD strength and increases demand for safe-haven assets like gold. With softer labor data, the market is now pricing in potential Fed rate cuts in the coming months, supporting upside pressure on gold. Technical Analysis: Price has respected the support zone and is now forming a bullish structure. If price holds above 3362, bullish momentum is expected to continue a Next targeting 3400 and 3419 – Strong resistance zone from recent highs You May find more details in the chart. Trade wisely best of luck Buddies. Ps: Support with like and comments for better analysis.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MrMartin_11
9
XAUUSD XAU/USD SHORT BIAS (at $3396) – Expecting a Sharp Decline Thesis: Gold is currently overextended at $3396, showing signs of exhaustion after a strong rally. Technical indicators and macroeconomic conditions suggest an imminent correction. Reasons for Bearish Outlook: 1. Overbought Conditions – RSI and momentum oscillators are at extreme highs; a retracement is statistically likely. 2. Strong Resistance – Price approaching a historical supply zone; failed breakouts are common at this level. 3. Dollar Strengthening – If DXY gains strength due to Fed policy, gold could see downward pressure. 4. Bond Yields Rising – Higher yields reduce gold’s appeal as a non-yielding asset. Target Zones: • Immediate target: $3310–$3290 • Deeper support: $3225–$3190 Risk: If gold breaks and holds above $3420, the short thesis may be invalidated.
ICMARKETS:XAUUSDShort
by HavalMamar
Gold may paint a false breakdown of supportGold is testing local resistance at 3325 with a touch. It is also touching the lower boundary of the channel. Thus, the price is stuck in the range between 3325 and 3320. A return of the price to the upward channel may attract buying activity. In this case, we can expect growth to 3375 or to the channel resistance. The trend is upward. If gold does not fall but returns to the channel, we will see a false breakdown of support. According to statistics, all the strongest movements begin after false breakdown
FX:XAUUSDLong
by AndeWave
3