Gold's Zigzag Retreat: Shorts' Comeback LoomsOn Friday, gold rebounded slightly and regained the $3,330 mark during the North American trading session. However, it showed an overall volatile trend throughout the week and closed near the middle band of the Bollinger Bands at $3,325.54. The market interpreted the US-UK trade agreement as an "empty-shell agreement". Coupled with Trump's tariff remarks ahead of the upcoming high-level talks among major economies over the weekend, the risk aversion sentiment has risen again, providing support for the gold price.
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Judging from the current market structure, during the upward trend that started from $3,200, gold has not experienced an obvious central consolidation and has accumulated strong retracement momentum. Combining with the small-scale trend, the current adjustment is more likely to unfold in the form of a falling zigzag pattern or a rectangular consolidation pattern rather than a strong breakout, as the weekly resistance level has not been effectively digested and there has been no new positive driving force in the market.
Next week, we need to be cautious about blindly chasing long positions and especially give up the illusion of "breaking through the previous high". In the short term, the probability of a retracement is much higher than that of a continuous unilateral upward movement.
XAUUSD
sell@3330-3340
tp:3300-3280
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XAUUSD trade ideas
Gold's Bull Market Ends as It PlungesToday's opening saw the success of the first Sino-US negotiation. This news instantly wiped out the bulls. Some of the previous gains came from the uncertainty of tariffs. Now that risk aversion has subsided, it has directly suppressed the market. There is an oversold rebound demand around 3200. You can enter the market in batches at 3200. Pay attention to the MA5 moving average of 3260 for upper resistance. As long as the price below does not break 3200 today, you can enter the market in batches and gradually move up.
Gold high diving reverses againThe support below is maintained at the integer level of 3200. Once this position continues to break, it will be possible to confirm the falling mode and it is very likely to set a new low. The pressure above is maintained near the previous high of 3212 in the European session. The previous high is very likely to suppress the European session again. If the European session continues to set new lows, the US session is likely to continue to fall. At present, we have two operating ideas. The ideal point is to wait for gold to continue to rebound and short around 3202-05, with the target at 3180-3150. After breaking 3150, you can continue to rebound and short. On the whole, the short-term operation of gold is recommended to be mainly short on rebounds, supplemented by long on pullbacks. The short-term focus on the upper side is the 3202-3212 resistance line, and the short-term focus on the lower side is the 31120-3110 support line.
Gold Sniper Zones - XAUUSD May 12 Monday🔍 Key Intraday Demand Zones (Potential Bounce Areas)
🔵 3220–3200
Current area of interest with short-term absorption signs
May serve as temporary reaccumulation base if bulls defend this area
Ideal zone for intraday reaction → confirmation required before acting
🔵 3180-3165
Strong historical reaction level
Previously held structure before rally
If price breaks below 3209, this is likely where buyers will re-enter aggressively
🔺 First Major Intraday Resistance Zones
🔴 3240–3255
First clean lower high zone
Recent bearish pressure originated here
Any bounce toward this area may face sharp rejection
🔴 3275 - 3290
Former structure base, now flipped
Watch for potential NY spike into this region → rejection likely without a confirmed breakout
🧠 Final Words:
Gold isn’t in freefall. It’s moving between precision zones that traders either recognize — or get wrecked by.
At this stage:
Below 3209 = bearish pressure likely continues toward 3170s
Above 3255 = watch for liquidity sweeps and false confidence
🎯 Stay with structure. Ignore the noise. Let the market earn your entries.
Drop a 🚀 Follow, comment, and share with your trading crew — if this helps your trading; let’s build a sharp Gold team
📌 Important Notice!!!
The above analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always compare with your plan and wait for confirmation before taking action.
Gold market analysis referenceThe short-term market is still affected by geopolitical factors, the easing of the Russian-Ukrainian war, and the consensus reached between Trump and China on the tariff war. These factors are all bearish for gold. Gold has fallen rapidly in the short term and continued to fall yesterday. Yesterday's decline was more than one hundred US dollars, which has changed the short-term upward trend. It will still be the main market for bears in the future. The downward trend of gold prices since 3439 is still continuing. If it falls below the previous low, that is, 3200, the decline will be further expanded and will run towards the target of 2909 in our previous analysis. Everyone can pay attention to this. Gold opened low and went low this week, and it rebounded near the previous low. Now at the four-hour level, a downward trend channel is formed from 3500 to 3440. The current support below the gold price is near 3164. This is the condition that it can fall below the previous low of 3200 before it can continue to push down.
Rebound means short, short-term pressure level focuses on the high point of 3265 as the watershed of strength and weakness. Gold failed to stand on 3265 in the short term, which means that the market is still in the rhythm of short-selling. Our layout during the day is also based on 3265. When the rebound reaches the top near the pressure level, we boldly short! In view of the release of CPI data in the US market, the current volatility of gold prices has slowed down, so it is recommended to keep an eye on it first. If the gold price touches 3270 after the release of the US market data, you can start to arrange short orders to look down at the key support position of 3200. After breaking the position, you can continue to look at the lower track of the downward channel analyzed in the morning near 3160. On the whole, today's short-term operation strategy for gold is to focus on rebound shorting and callback longing. The short-term focus on the upper side is 3265-3270 resistance, and the short-term focus on the lower side is 3200-3160 support. Friends must keep up with the rhythm.
Short order strategy:
Strategy 1: Short (buy short) 20% of the position in batches around 3265-3270 in the early trading of gold, stop loss 10 points, target around 3230-3210, break the position and look at the 3200 line
Long order strategy:
Strategy 2: When gold falls back to around 3200-3205, buy long positions in batches (buy up) of 20% of the position, stop loss 10 points, target around 3230-3250, break the position and look at 3290
XAU/USD: Go short on the rebound.The trend of the gold market yesterday was highly consistent with our strategy. The fluctuation range of the gold price within the day was clear. The lowest point touched was $3,216, and the highest point rose to $3,265. As a whole, it presented a typical rectangular oscillation pattern, which was in full accordance with the analysis and prediction we released over the weekend.
In terms of the trading strategy, within the oscillation range of $3,200 to $3,270, it is recommended to adopt the trading idea of selling on rallies. It is relatively prudent to place short positions after the price rebounds to a high level. However, going long at a low position requires caution as there is a certain degree of risk. Currently, we need to focus on the breakthrough of the key level of $3,215. If the gold price effectively breaks below $3,215 today, the support of the round number level of $3,200 may be challenged, and there may be a risk of losing this support level.
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Gold (XAU/USD) – Daily Analysis🌐 Geopolitical Context
After a long standoff, the United States and China have finally reached a preliminary agreement on tariff reductions, easing one of the largest trade tensions in recent years. This move is likely to reduce market uncertainty, making risk-on assets more attractive than traditional safe havens like gold.
🗺 Market Structure Overview
On the daily chart, we clearly see a double top formation starting to take shape, likely triggered by today’s market reaction to the US-China trade news.
🔻 This structure typically indicates a potential market reversal or at least a strong retracement,
as sellers step in at a previously defined resistance.
📉 Key Technical Levels
Double Top Resistance – Currently forming around the $3,500 level, a clear psychological barrier for buyers.
Supply Zones – Multiple layers of overhead supply are visible, likely to cap any further upside.
BULL OTE – Potential deep retracement zone if the market pulls back aggressively, located around $3,000 - $3,100.
50% Retracement – Sitting near $3,200, this level could act as an intermediate support if selling pressure increases.
📊 Short-Term Outlook
For now, gold seems poised for a potential pullback, especially if the double top confirms with a clear rejection. However, the broader trend remains bullish unless the price breaks below the supply zones and the BULL OTE.
XAUUSD - Could we see $3,200?Gold appears to be showing signs of exhaustion after its impressive rally to record highs near $3,500 per ounce, with recent price action forming a potential double top pattern. The downward-pointing arrow on the chart suggests bearish momentum is building, and with the price currently hovering around $3,326, we may be witnessing the early stages of a deeper pullback toward the lower support box around $3,200. This correction would represent a healthy consolidation within gold's long-term uptrend, allowing overextended technical indicators to reset before the next potential leg higher. Fundamental factors including potential profit-taking, a temporary strengthening in the US dollar, and positioning adjustments ahead of upcoming economic data could accelerate this move toward the $3,200 target in the coming weeks.
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Gold Price Analysis May 16Yesterday's D1 candle pulled back within the uptrend with a liquidity sweep to 3121. Today there is unlikely to be a sell-off and the price will continue to return in the uptrend.
Today, it is better to mainly look for retest points for BUY signals.
In the immediate future, 3198 is the first BUY zone that the Asia-Europe session can consider. When breaking this zone, buy entries may not carry long TP expectations. The Breakout zone of 3153 and the bottom zone of 3125 are two important supports to prevent the gold price from a downward slide.
In the opposite direction, the Asian session resistance zone around 3254 also acts as an immediate barrier for the gold price increase. Break 3254 should not BUY until the 3288 zone before SELL Scalping can be done. The upper barrier of the Daily Frame is at 3320.
Bullish bounce off pullback support?XAU/USD has bounced off the support level which is a pullback support and could potentially rise from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 3,202.71
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Stop loss: 3,151.11
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension.
Take profit: 3,344.32
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
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GOLD Will Go Up! Buy!
Here is our detailed technical review for GOLD.
Time Frame: 12h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 3,242.49.
The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 3,415.14 level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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Gold Trade Plan 15/05/2025Dear Traders,
Gold reacted to the AB=CD zone as expected in the previous analysis and bounced up by 400 pips. Right now, we have two scenarios:
1-A further drop towards the 3040–3050 area.
2-The correction has ended, and wave 5 has started.
I will provide the next update soon.
f you enjoyed this forecast, please show your support with a like and comment. Your feedback is what drives me to keep creating valuable content."
Regards,
Alireza
Gold intraday trading plan 5/12/2025As explained in my weekly forecast, I am still bullish on gold. The current opening drop can be seen as a good buying opportunity. I will monitor the price action closely at 3270 level. As long as this level holds, I will buy towards 3370 today.
However, if 3270 is broken, gold may turn to bearish in short term.
Gold can correct to support line of channel and then start growHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Gold. In this chart, we can see how the price, after forming a triangle structure and breaking out to the upside, Gold entered a downward channel, where it has been consistently respecting both the resistance and support lines. Each bounce from the lower boundary of this channel signals local buyer interest, especially near the support level around 3060, which also overlaps with the buyer zone. Recently, the price rebounded from this support line, indicating a potential start of a bullish correction inside the channel. This move is consistent with past price behavior, strong impulses from the bottom boundary followed by gradual movement toward the upper resistance line. Given the structure and the ongoing bounce, I expect Gold can correct the support line of the channel, after which it turns around and starts to grow to the 3290 resistance level, which aligns with the upper boundary of the pattern and the beginning of the seller zone. That’s why my TP 1 is set at 3290 points - a reasonable technical target within the current channel formation. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
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Gold is also hesitating whether to break the position or not.
It is not unfair to say that gold fluctuates slowly.
I mentioned in my article yesterday that it depends on the closing level of gold. Different closings represent different meanings. 3235 was treated as the standard watershed on that day. As a result, gold fluctuated sideways in the afternoon despite the rebound of US stocks. In terms of the daily structure, it closed with a middle-yin candle with a lower shadow, and closed flat at 3235.
There is more than 200 points of pressure above, and it can close flat, which means that gold does have something. Of course, just closing flat does not completely mean that gold bulls are back. It can only be said that bulls are still in the market and have not completely fled. Then it is normal for gold to rebound after testing 3200 again and receiving support.
There are also reasons in terms of market sentiment. Judging from the main speculative sentiment report, it has been a long-term horizontal bullish trend. From the perspective of capital sentiment, global stock markets were soaring on Monday. The easing of the trade war between the world's two major economies encouraged funds to no longer simply entrench themselves in gold and began to bloom in multiple directions.
That being said, let's count them: 91% of retaliatory tariffs were canceled; 24% of reciprocal tariffs were suspended for 90 days; 20% of fentanyl tariffs were not mentioned; 10% of universal tariffs remained the same.
The current retained tariffs are still very high, and they will inevitably leave traces in the economy, such as stagflation effects such as price increases and economic slowdown. In this way, the temporary easing is actually still on the surface and has not really solved the fundamental differences that led to the dispute. The most important thing is that the US trade deficit with China still exists. It is impossible to reshape the sweater relationship between the two sides in the short term. Any disturbance during this period will directly affect the attitude of safe-haven funds.
Especially the CPI data released by the US market tonight, the expected value of the unadjusted CPI annual rate in April is the same as the previous value of 2.4%, and the monthly rate is relatively high.
At this time, there is a basic problem. April has entered the battle of tariffs. Throughout April, the market has regarded gold as a lifeline. For example, when you see that daily necessities are about to be taxed and raised in price, what will you do?
Right, so if nothing unexpected happens, inflation caused by tariffs will rise. The good thing is that in terms of energy in April, the price of crude oil is straight down, so it offsets part of inflation. In principle, the impact of this announcement should be small. As for the core data, I personally think that it will rise compared with the previous value, that is, no matter how it is collected, there will be a limited situation of favorable factors.
After the midday trading, gold once probed upward and has tested the resistance level of 3260. I just calculated gold. It is originally adjusted by fundamentals, so it is still treated as an adjustment, that is, rebound and open short, or break and follow up.
Secondly, draw a channel according to the four-hour chart, and combine it with Fibonacci. Pay attention to 77-91 in the middle track of the Bollinger Band. If a reversal signal appears in this range, you can consider entering the market based on the signal to see a decline. At that time, you need to pay attention to 3219 and 3207 below. If the integer level is broken, you can also consider further lowering the gold target to the range of 3160±10.
Hello traders, if you have better ideas and suggestions, welcome to leave a message below, I will be very happy
XAUUSD M15 | Bearish Reversal Based on the H4 chart, the price could rise toward our sell entry level at 3241, a pullback resistance.
Our take profit is set at 3211,79, a support level.
The stop loss is set at 3276.17, a swing high resistance.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
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XUA/USD) bullish trend analysis Read The ChaptianSMC Trading point update
Technical analysis chart for Gold Spot (XAUUSD) on the 4-hour timeframe. Here's a breakdown of the key ideas behind the analysis:
1. Trend and Structure:
The overall trend shows a bullish move followed by a correction and now a potential continuation upward.
A bullish breakout from a descending trendline suggests a shift in momentum from bearish to bullish.
2. Key Zones:
Order Block / Buying Zone (~3,280-3,310): A demand area where price is expected to find support and potentially bounce higher.
Support Level (~3,320-3,360): Price is currently above this level, suggesting buyers are in control.
Resistance Level (~3,440-3,495): Marked as a potential short-term ceiling; a breakout above this level may signal strong bullish continuation.
Target Point (~3,494): This is the projected take-profit level for a bullish move.
3. RSI Indicator:
RSI is around 63–64, close to overbought territory but not yet extreme. This suggests moderate bullish momentum without signs of immediate reversal.
4. Projected Move:
The chart outlines a possible retracement to the support or order block zone, followed by a bounce and a push toward the resistance level and target.
Mr SMC Trading point
Strategy Implication:
Buy on pullback to the support or order block zone.
Stop-loss could be placed below the order block (~3,280).
Take-profit around the target zone (~3,494).
pales support boost 🚀 analysis follow)
XAUUSD Daily Outlook – Monday, May 12, 2025🔍 Daily Structure Summary:
After rejecting from the ATH zone (3500), price formed a corrective wave, with a clean bullish reaction from 3284–3292, now confirmed on Daily.
Friday’s daily candle closed bullish, forming a strong wick rejection from demand, indicating buy-side interest around 3290.
EMAs show price still in a pullback phase, with EMA21 and EMA50 overhead acting as dynamic resistance (~3360–3380).
📌 Key Daily Zones & Levels
Zone / Level Description
3448–3500 🔺 Premium Supply Zone – major rejection area (same as Weekly top)
3380–3395 🔁 Daily FVG + EMA confluence – near-term resistance zone
3340–3360 🔁 Old support → new resistance – possible rejection if unconfirmed
3284–3292 ✅ Confirmed Demand – recent bounce and bullish PA
3250–3265 🔵 Last defense zone – if this breaks, 3220 may be exposed
3220–3235 🔵 Major Daily Demand – matches Weekly BOS and potential reversal zone
📈 Current Price Action Notes:
Price is pushing away from 3290, aiming toward 3340–3360, where we may see the first intraday test of resistance.
A clean break above 3360 would open space toward 3380–3395, where FVG and EMA50 could slow price.
If price fails to hold above 3290, it may revisit 3250–3265 for a deeper liquidity sweep.
🧠 Flow Outlook for Monday:
Bullish scenario:
Price holds above 3290 and forms higher low → potential to reach 3360–3380 intraday. If that breaks, we target 3395.
Bearish scenario:
If we reject below 3340 and lose 3290 again, price may head back toward 3250–3235 for stronger demand testing.
📌 Summary of Levels (For May 12):
Type Price Zones Notes
Resistance 3448–3500 Premium HTF rejection zone
3380–3395 FVG + EMA confluence
3340–3360 Near-term intraday resistance
Support 3284–3292 Daily demand, bullish reaction confirmed
3250–3265 Key intraday demand & bounce zone
3220–3235 HTF daily demand + structure base
XAUUSD BULLISH OR BEARISH DETAILED ANALYSISXAUUSD is currently trading around 3250, consolidating within a well-defined bullish flag structure after a strong impulsive rally. This flag pattern on the 12-hour chart reflects healthy profit-taking and reaccumulation after a significant upward move. The current price action is respecting the lower boundary of the flag, and with growing volume on bullish candles, the setup suggests a high probability of a breakout to the upside, targeting the 3650 region.
From a macroeconomic perspective, gold remains in strong demand due to ongoing global uncertainties and persistent inflation concerns. The US CPI print remains sticky above 3%, keeping real yields under pressure and supporting gold's bullish bias. Furthermore, with the Fed expected to hold interest rates steady for longer, the market is starting to price in fewer rate cuts this year. This continues to undermine the USD and supports gold as a store of value. Additionally, rising central bank gold purchases and geopolitical risk premium are adding further tailwinds.
Technically, we are watching for a clean breakout above the upper flag resistance around 3280–3300. A breakout with volume confirmation would open the door toward the psychological 3400 level first, followed by a push toward the 3650 target area. Momentum indicators are turning up, and price is showing signs of basing just above previous support levels, adding confidence to the bullish continuation scenario.
Gold remains one of the strongest trending assets in 2025, and this consolidation is likely just a pause before the next leg higher. As global markets digest the impact of persistent inflation and macro volatility, precious metals like gold are likely to outperform. This flag formation provides a textbook continuation setup for traders looking to position with the broader trend.
Will gold continue to rise after breaking down?Technical analysis of gold: the daily cycle is constructed based on the M-head pattern. 3202 is the bullish defense position. If it cannot go up at the close, there will be further declines. A major technical breakdown has occurred. Pay attention to the change in thinking. If the adjustment is large, it may even reach 2900/3000. It rises quickly and falls just as quickly, but the long-term logic of gold's rise remains unchanged. It is also an opportunity to deploy more when it goes down, but the position needs to be observed by the market. It is difficult to predict at present. In the short term, rely on 3198 to do short selling. After breaking 3200, pay attention to shorting even if it rebounds. If it rebounds upward, go short at the golden section resistance of 3265.
After gold fell below 3202 in the US market, it rebounded to 3198 at its highest. This rebound was just an oversold rebound, and then continued to fall back. Although it has not refreshed the low point for the time being, the pattern has weakened and it is difficult to rise again. Weak shorts can hardly get past 3198. The short-term support below is 3140/3150. Gold 1 hour still continues to cross downward short positions, and the short-term strength is still there. The rebound still continues to give shorts opportunities. There is no obvious sustained upward momentum in the short term, so such a market is just a rebound. Gold rebounds in the US market and continues to be short.
Overall, today's short-term operation strategy for gold is to short on rebounds and to go long on pullbacks. The short-term focus on the upper side is 3202-3205 resistance, and the short-term focus on the lower side is 3150-3155 support.
Short position strategy:
Strategy 1: Short 20% of the position in batches near 3198-3202 in the early trading of gold, stop loss 10 points, target near 3180-3170, and look at 3150 if it breaks;
Long position strategy:
Strategy 2: Buy 20% of the position in batches near 3150-3155 when gold falls back, stop loss 10 points, target near 3170-3190, and look at 3200 if it breaks;
Downtrend - will gold price return to 3233?⭐️GOLDEN INFORMATION:
Gold price (XAU/USD) rebounded from an early Asian session drop to a multi-day low, reclaiming ground above the $3,300 psychological level in the past hour. The precious metal continues to draw support from persistent geopolitical uncertainties, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict, intensifying tensions in the Middle East, and renewed friction along the India-Pakistan border. That said, the upside appears constrained by improving risk sentiment, driven by renewed optimism surrounding a US-UK trade agreement and the launch of US-China tariff negotiations over the weekend.
⭐️Personal comments NOVA:
Gold prices are under great selling pressure as trade negotiations on tariffs are becoming more active. They may return to the 323x price zone and continue to accumulate.
⭐️SET UP GOLD PRICE:
🔥SELL GOLD zone : 3351- 3353 SL 3358
TP1: $3340
TP2: $3330
TP3: $3320
🔥BUY GOLD zone: $3232 - $3234 SL $3227
TP1: $3245
TP2: $3260
TP3: $3270
⭐️Technical analysis:
Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable sell order.
⭐️NOTE:
Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well
- take the number of lots that match your capital
- Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account
- Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account