HelenP. I Gold may break support level and continue to move downHi folks today I'm prepared for you Gold analytics. Observing this chart, we can see how the price reached support 2, which coincided with the support zone and tried to break it, but failed and dropped below. Then Gold turned around and made an impulse up, broke firstly 3125 level first and then reached support 1 and broke it too. After this movement, Gold continued to grow and reached the trend line, after which it started to decline inside a triangle pattern, where it first fell below support 1, making a first gap. Next, Gold tried to back up, but failed and dropped to support 2, after which it started to grow. In a short time, XAU rose to support 1, broke it, and some time traded between this level. Not long time ago, it rose to the trend line, which is the resistance line of a triangle as well, and then fell to the resistance zone. So, I expect that XAUUSD will break the support level and then continue to fall, thereby exiting from triangle too. For this case, I set my goal at 3225 points. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
Disclaimer: As part of ThinkMarkets’ Influencer Program, I am sponsored to share and publish their charts in my analysis.
XAUUSD trade ideas
The Uncertainty of Gold Gold exhibited considerable uncertainty, as sellers pushed the price back to nearly its starting point this week. Is it profit taking? What do institutions know that we don't, as they increased their long positions this week? 81% of institutions are long. So, where the whales are is where I want to be.
Note: This is not advice. This is for educational purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Gold delivering excellent returnsTechnical analysis: As expected yesterday’s session local Higher High’s rejection pushed Gold aggressively towards my take Profit of #3,381.80 to form #1-session Low’s. Traders witnessed Technically driven slide after Fundamentally driven uptrend which I always look to utilize as Shorting is excellent way to make Profits on Gold (mostly Technically on the way down lately from Fundamental upside spikes) since there is lot’s more Technical pointers and traffic in Selling than Buying, as said Bull leaps are usually Fundamentally driven on Gold. Hourly 4 chart is approaching #7-session old Neutral Rectangle however Hourly 4 chart may shake off the last of it’s Neutral values and align with semi-Bullish Fundamental perspective which is approaching #3,400.80 benchmark and local Low's rejection may deliver Buying signal. DX rebounded strongly off it’s local Low’s and is now in the process of seeking the Resistance. (#1W) Weekly chart’s candle is near a (# +1.91%) close, effectively limiting the losses / however on the other side, Buying pressure is not so strong as it was past few Months and that’s why you witness such Low Volume movements and aggressive Bearish reversals. Monthly candle is now at (# -0.59%) and the goal is to rise further by closing, extending the Bullish continuity. That is why Traders should observe their gains / losses on a Monthly basis, as despite the Volatility on smaller timeframes as this one, the Medium / Long-term patterns always prevail.
My position: I have Sold Gold throughout yesterday's session from #3,395.80 towards #3,382.80 Support after #3,400.80 benchmark rejected the Price-action and that order delivered biggest Profit on single position in my entire Trading career if I may say (#124.000 Eur). I have re-Bought Gold twice on #3,342.80 and #3,346.80 and closed both orders on #3,354.80 which was excellent way to finish a session. Keep in mind that NFP is ahead on the calendar and keep in mind that I do expect upside surprise which may fuel more Selling action on Gold. However if NFP delivers downside surprise, I am confident that #3,400.80 benchmark will be tested on news aftermath.
XAU/USD) Bearish trand analysis Read The ChaptianSMC trading point update
Technical analysis for Gold (XAU/USD) on the 4-hour timeframe. Here's a breakdown of the key ideas and strategy behind it:
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Key Elements of the Chart:
1. Descending Channel Pattern:
Price is moving within a descending channel (downward sloping resistance and support lines).
The red arrows mark previous rejections from the upper boundary of the channel.
2. Supply Zone / Resistance Area:
Highlighted in yellow, the price has entered a supply zone (between 3,412.00 and 3,440.42), historically where selling pressure has emerged.
The analysis suggests sellers may dominate again in this zone.
3. Price Action Projection:
Expected to reject from the supply zone, possibly forming a lower high.
Price is projected to break the short-term upward trendline, then fall sharply.
4. Target Points:
First target: 3,206.96 – likely aligned with a minor support level or Fibonacci retracement.
Second target: 3,085.56 – near the lower boundary of the descending channel.
5. EMA 200 (3,238.55):
Price is currently above the 200 EMA, but the projection anticipates a breakdown below it, confirming further bearish sentiment.
6. RSI Indicator:
RSI is at 67.56, near overbought territory, suggesting limited upside and a possible correction.
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Trade Idea Summary:
Bias: Bearish
Entry Zone: Between 3,412 – 3,440 (supply zone)
Confirmation: Rejection at the trendline + RSI divergence
Targets:
TP1: 3,206.96
TP2: 3,085.56
Invalidation: Break and hold above 3,440.42 (channel breakout)
Mr SMC Trading point
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Risk Management Note:
Ensure stop-loss is placed above the resistance zone (e.g., around 3,450) to mitigate false breakouts. Monitor fundamentals like upcoming US economic data, as they can heavily impact gold.
Pales support boost 🚀 analysis follow)
Gold: aligning with USDThe price of gold returned to its alignment path with the US Dollar during the previous week. This might be treated as one of the first indications that the tensions and uncertainties among investors are slowly fading. In line with US Dollar mixed weekly moves, so the price of gold has its mixed trading week. The week started around the level of $3.355, but for the rest of time was traded mostly to the downside, ending the week at the level of $3.287. The lowest weekly level was achieved on Thursday, shortly touching the $3.252 level.
The RSI also moved in a mixed manner, mostly between levels of 57 and 52. However, there was no change with MA50 and MA200 lines, which are still moving as two parallel lines with an uptrend. This represents one of the longest streaks of MA lines as parallel lines, where the MA50 became the support line for gold minimums on a daily chart.
For the week ahead charts are showing increased probability for further correction of the price of gold, but only till the level of $3.250. This level was also shortly tested on Thursday, and might be tested for one more time. Just in case that this level is breached further to the downside, then the next support line would be around $3,2K. At this moment, charts are showing decreased probability for such a move. A short term reversal from current levels is also probable, but not above the $3.360. This level would mark another testing of highs reached during the previous week.
Gold Bearish Outlook | Short Opportunity AheadGold has just tested a major resistance zone at $3,390–$3,400 and faced a sharp rejection, forming a possible double top. The price is still respecting the parallel ascending channel, but current momentum suggests a bearish move could be underway.
🔍 Key Technical Levels:
Resistance: $3,390 – $3,400 (strong rejection zone)
Support: $3,282 (watch for reaction here)
Channel Structure: Price is still within an ascending channel
📉 Possible Scenarios:
1. Bearish Scenario:
If the price breaks below $3,340 and sustains momentum, we could see a drop to $3,282 support — a key level to watch for a potential bounce or further breakdown.
2. Bullish Scenario (less likely short-term):
If bulls regain control, watch for a breakout above $3,400, confirming upside continuation.
💡 Trading Idea:
Currently leaning bearish unless we see a confirmed breakout above resistance. Short setups could be considered on lower timeframes with targets near the support level.
💬 Let me know what you think — will gold break down or bounce back? 👇
👍 Like & follow for more trade ideas and updates!
#XAUUSD #Gold #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction #TradingView #Forex #Commodities
Gold Drops Toward 12-Hour and Daily Support LevelsFollowing the break of the bullish trend on the 8-hour timeframe and a subsequent pullback to the 4-hour resistance zone — confirmed by a breakdown on the 2-hour timeframe — we expect the price to move toward the 12-hour and daily support zone around the 2982 level.
Disclaimer: You are responsible for your own trades. Do not risk more than 2% of your account on a single setup.
6/6 Gold Trading StrategyAfter a short rebound, gold is now hovering near key resistance levels.
The critical zone is around 3366 – if price breaks above this, the next upside targets are 3378–3388.
However, from a broader perspective, the 4H chart still shows an uncorrected bearish setup.
Without strong buying volume, the price may drop again — potentially below 3330, or even breach the 3300 level.
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📅 Key Data Releases Today:
🔹 NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls)
🔹 US Unemployment Rate
Both events are expected to bring high volatility, so manage your risk carefully.
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📊 My Intraday Trade Plan:
✅ Sell on rallies
🎯 Target: around 3330-3290
📌 Only if price reaches that support zone will I consider shifting to a bullish bias
Gold XAUUSD Short 5th May 2025Price is approaching a strong supply zone at 3384–3386, where we’ve previously seen aggressive selling. If we get clear signs of rejection from this level (e.g., wicks, bearish engulfing, or failure to break above), I’ll be looking to enter short positions.
The structure shows a potential lower high forming, and if confirmed, we could see continuation to the downside toward recent support levels.
📉 Trade Signal
Bias: Sell
Entry Zone: 3384–3386 (on rejection)
Stop Loss: Above 3395
Take Profit Levels:
– TP1: 3370
– TP2: 3360
– TP3: 3345
⚠️ Note: Trade only if rejection is confirmed in the zone (e.g., bearish PA or failed breakout on 5m–15m).
Gold (XAUUSD) Elliott Wave Outlook: Next Bullish Surge UnderwayGold (XAUUSD) has displayed a strong bullish trend since establishing a low on May 15, 2025, forming a sequence of higher highs that signals further upside potential. The rally from the May 15 low unfolded in a clear five-wave Elliott Wave structure, completing wave 1 at $3365.93. The initial advance, wave ((i)), peaked at $3252.05, followed by a corrective pullback in wave ((ii)) to $3153.47. The subsequent rally in wave ((iii)) reached $3345.40, with a minor dip in wave ((iv)) to $3278.79. A final leg, wave ((v)), concluded wave 1 at $3365.93.
Following the completion of wave 1, a corrective wave 2 developed as a double three Elliott Wave structure. From the wave 1 high, wave ((w)) declined to $3284.40, followed by a recovery in wave ((x)) to $3325.51. The subsequent decline in wave ((y)) bottomed at $3245.20, marking the end of wave 2. Gold then resumed its upward trajectory, initiating wave 3. Within this wave, wave ((i)) peaked at $3331.11, and a pullback in wave ((ii)) found support at $3271.09. The metal has since broken above the previous wave 1 high of $3365.93, confirming the start of wave ((iii)) and signaling further upside.
In the near term, as long as the pivot low at $3246 remains intact, pullbacks are expected to attract buyers in a 3, 7, or 11-swing corrective structure, supporting additional gains. Traders should monitor these levels for potential buying opportunities, with the bullish trend likely to persist as long as key support holds.
GOLD THE dollar index found support at the neckline of double bottom from April price action at 98,450 demand floor and immediately gold started tanking ,dollar crossed another majors supply roof and if it keeps the part to recovery into NFP and we get a favorable data print report ,GOLD will face sell pressure into 3200 or more.
on a flip side ,GOLD bulls could keep gains regardless of NFP data.
stay cautious on NFP.
GOLD falls then recovers slightly, markets eye jobs dataMainly due to the strengthening of the TVC:DXY , OANDA:XAUUSD have fallen sharply from a near four-week high, with a one-day drop of nearly $30 on Tuesday and a slight recovery in today's Asian trading session on Wednesday, June 4.
DXY rebounded from its lowest level in more than a month hit earlier in the session on Tuesday and ended the day up 0.6%, which put some minor pressure on gold in yesterday's session. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' Employment and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) released on Tuesday showed that total job vacancies in the United States reached 7.39 million in April, up from 7.2 million in March. Economists had expected job vacancies in the United States to be 7.1 million in April.
OANDA:XAUUSD fell on Tuesday as a surprise rise in U.S. job vacancies boosted risk appetite and helped the dollar strengthen, according to Bloomberg. The rise in job vacancies encouraged investors to believe that the U.S. economy remains resilient despite the threat of U.S. President Trump’s tariff agenda.
Looking ahead, U.S. employment data, including Friday’s May nonfarm payrolls report, could help guide the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, Bloomberg said. Lower interest rates are generally good for non-interest-bearing gold.
Gold traders will be looking ahead to key employment data, including the ADP and nonfarm payrolls reports, to determine the Fed’s policy path.
In terms of technical structure, there are no changes to the chart or previous analysis so readers can review it in the previous publication.
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3412 - 3410⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3416
→Take Profit 1 3404
↨
→Take Profit 2 3398
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3299 - 3301⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3295
→Take Profit 1 3307
↨
→Take Profit 2 3313
goldhello everyone, gold has reached the support trendline, the price will likely correct to following resistance area as shown, price is still in downtrend direction but next week can show correction on bullish side.. weekly to 4hr tf, in 4hr corrected to support trend line, the price is still in uptrend direction at the moment the price corrected in htf due to nfp news...
good luck
Affected by tariffs, gold prices rebounded to above 3,300
Gold finally broke the calm of the past and resumed its upward trend. What happened? This is also thanks to President Trump, who imposed tariffs again over the weekend, and there was also news of air strikes. The combination of the two directly broke the calm of gold prices in the past.
So where can this wave of gold go? Technically, gold 1-hour cycle, maintained fluctuations around 3,348, and the support line is expected to be around 3,330.
Our strategy today is also very simple. As long as the gold price retests around 3,360-3,350, I will go short. Which specific position can stop profit? I will tell my VIP.
GOLD Impact of June 6 Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) Data on Fed Rate Decisions
Key Data Points
Non-Farm Employment Change: 139K (vs. 126K forecast, revised April: 147K from 177K).
Unemployment Rate: Steady at 4.2% (matches forecasts).
Average Hourly Earnings: 3.9% YoY (vs. 3.7% expected).
Labor Force Participation Rate: Declined to 62.4% (from 62.6%).
Fed Policy Implications
Labor Market Cooling but Resilient:
Job growth slowed (139K vs. 147K prior), with cumulative downward revisions of 95K for March and April. This signals moderation but avoids a sharp deterioration.
Stable unemployment rate (4.2%) and wage growth (3.9% YoY) suggest the labor market remains tight enough to sustain consumer spending but is losing momentum.
Inflation Concerns Persist:
Sticky Wage Growth: Elevated wage inflation (3.9% YoY) complicates the Fed’s inflation fight, particularly in services sectors.
Productivity-Sensitive Costs: Rising labor costs without productivity gains could pressure corporate margins and consumer prices.
Fed’s Balancing Act:
Near-Term Hold Likely: The Fed is expected to keep rates at 4.25–4.50% in July, prioritizing inflation control over labor market softness.
Rate Cut Odds Shift: Markets now price a ~55% chance of a September cut (up from ~40% pre-NFP), contingent on further cooling in inflation (June 11 CPI data critical).
Market Impact
DXY (Dollar Index): Minimal immediate reaction, but sustained labor market cooling could weaken the dollar if rate cuts gain traction.
Equities: Mixed signals (slower jobs vs. stable wages) may limit gains, though tech and growth stocks could rally on delayed Fed tightening.
Bonds: 10-year yields (4.40%) may edge lower if growth fears outweigh inflation risks.
Conclusion
The Fed will likely delay rate cuts until September unless inflation softens decisively. While job growth is slowing, persistent wage pressures and a stable unemployment rate justify a cautious stance. Traders should monitor June CPI (June 11) and Q2 GDP data for clearer signals.
Summary:
No July cut expected; September cut remains contingent on inflation easing.
DXY range-bound near 98.50–99.50 until CPI release.
stay cautious
#gold