XAUUSD: 30/4 Today’s Market Analysis and StrategyGold technical analysis
The resistance level of the four-hour chart is 3330, and the support level is 3260.
The resistance level of the one-hour chart is 3307, and the support level is 3275.
The resistance level of the 30-minute chart is 3300, and the support level is 3280.
The 4H cycle is a horizontal box operation. This week is a data week. The gold price is greatly affected by the news. Wait for the NFP data on Friday to break the box operation. Due to the recent market fluctuations, the entry position is very critical. For the time being, focus on the previous support of 3300 today. If the US market stands at 3300, it can be bullish to the 3320~3330 area. On the contrary, if it falls below the 4H and daily support of 3260 US dollars, it may touch the monthly support level of 3230~3200.
There are many news about the US market data today. Wait for the data to be released before trading! Avoid losses caused by increased liquidity during the news release.
Trading strategy:
Buy: 3265 SL:3260
Buy: 3300 SL:3295
Sell: 3330 SL:3335
Sell: 3260 SL:3265
Only provide trading direction, specific entry price, SL/TP need to wait for real-time liquidity confirmation
XAUUSD trade ideas
Gold prices fell at the beginning of this week
🌐Drivers
Gold prices fell slightly to $3,310 in early Asian trading on Monday, retreating from the record high set last week as signs of easing global trade tensions grew.
According to Reuters, U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins revealed on Sunday that the Trump administration is in daily consultations with China on tariffs. Rollins also stressed that agreements with several other countries are "very close" to being finalized.
"The news suggesting a possible partial exemption from retaliatory tariffs further boosted market sentiment and caused gold prices to fall below the $3,300 mark," said Tang Yuxuan, a strategist at JPMorgan Private Bank.
📊Commentary Analysis
At the beginning of this week, gold prices were mainly sideways, without much news impact, trading around 3,300 points, and gradually falling back.
🔷Technical side:
For the current gold, the 1-hour chart is fluctuating widely between 3,300-3,270, and is currently at $3,276.
✔Operational suggestions, keep short-term trading:
Bearish strategy:
If the gold price rebounds to the range of 3320-3330 US dollars, you can try to short, with a target of 3280 US dollars and a stop loss of 3335 US dollars.
Bullish strategy:
If the gold price falls to the support of 3260-3270 US dollars, you can go long with a light position, with a target of 3330 US dollars and a stop loss of 3275 US dollars.
💥Risk warning
Liquidity risk: The market may be bearish in early May, and price fluctuations may be amplified.
Policy black swan: Trump may suddenly make tariff policies or personnel changes at the Federal Reserve, causing violent market fluctuations.
Technical false breakthrough: There are a large number of stop-loss orders near 3350 US dollars, and you need to be wary of reversals after inducing more.
Summary:
This week, the gold market will be affected by geopolitics, Federal Reserve policies and the trend of the US dollar. The fluctuation range is expected to be between 3260 and 3350 US dollars. Investors need to pay close attention to key support and resistance levels and adjust their strategies flexibly.
Gold bottom wide range, bullish trend remains unchanged
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The international gold price opened at $3,350/ounce last Friday and closed at $3,315/ounce. The K-line entity fell by about $35/ounce throughout the day, and the daily K-line closed with a medium-yin line with a long upper shadow. Last Friday, the gold price fluctuated widely and finally closed down. On the one hand, it was because the risk aversion sentiment eased slightly, resulting in profit-taking of long positions; on the other hand, it was due to the oversold rebound of the US dollar, which put pressure on gold bulls.
Fundamentally, gold reached a record high last week, and then fell slightly under the influence of Trump's easing trade remarks and the Federal Reserve. According to FactSet data, gold has still risen by about 41% in the past year, and the return rate so far this decade is 113%. As investors prepare for further geopolitical and macroeconomic shocks, gold continues to be the asset of choice for investors seeking protection. According to the latest data, US gold ETFs experienced inflows exceeding 95% of historical levels in two weeks, followed by a single-day outflow that also exceeded 95% of historical levels. This "big in and big out" pattern has occurred 9 times in history, and the first 8 times almost accurately predicted that gold would usher in a correction, and the worst performance was usually concentrated in the next 2 months.
Technically, the monthly chart of gold showed a strong upward trend, technical indicators continued to rise, and the long-term bullish trend; the weekly chart closed at a high level with a long upper shadow cross, and the technical indicators were blunt at high levels, and the medium-term cautious pursuit of highs; the daily chart was stagnant and pulled back from highs, and the technical indicators began to fall, and the short-term correction was expected to continue; the 4-hour chart fell into a shock pattern, and the technical indicators were neutral, and the short-term waited for a breakthrough in the shock range. Overall, the price of gold remains bullish in the long term, with the midline expected to adjust downwards and a volatile trend in the short term.
In terms of short-term operations during the day, focus on the long opportunities in the 3294 area below and defend on 3279. Focus on the short opportunities in the 3215 area on the top and defend on 3221. Each target will look at the 15-20 US dollars space.
Hello traders, if you have better ideas and suggestions, welcome to leave a message below, I will be very happy
Gold delivering side SwingsTechnical analysis: After today’s E.U. session excellent Bearish Short-term opening and clear Technical Selling signal, Fundamentals didn't managed to distort (as seen many times lately) Technical proper trend and from a clear #3,327.80 and main Support mild-aggressive break-out, Gold didn't recovered and tested #3,200.80 benchmark with almost #50-point Intra-day spread in Bear direction. Personally, reason behind it was market speculators pulling the DX (# +0.27%) back towards the Resistance zone, preventing further downtrend on #4-session horizon. Gold is on decline again driven by known factors and keeping almost (# +9.02%) gains comparing on Monthly (#1M) chart which strongly affected Technical values. That not much Buyers expected today’s mini Selling scenario - confirms the small Buying Volume where Gold is unable to reverse from current psychological benchmark. Sellers appear in good health off Swing once Support is now turned in Resistance at #3,327.80. Further Selling from current Price-action draws in Support at #3,252.80 (June #29 spike similarities) which is by my estimations really hard to reach since I can't count out that Gold is still on a Bullish perspective and I see this downside spike as an good re-Buy point as cycle is showcasing / every similar decline on Gold was just another accumulation zone for new Bullish multi-Month uptrend extension. What’s also interesting to mention that Gold soared even though DX was soaring as well, indicating elemental Volatile trend on Gold and almost all market classes. While Weekly chart’s (#1W) Price-action showcases that Gold is less likely heading for Lower levels, Fundamental side flow will reveal the major move (and how DX will digest it). I am enjoying current Price-action suitable for both Buyers and Sellers of the market and monitor DX to position yourself properly.
Gold depends on GDP numbersTechnical analysis: Gold naturally found Buyers as Buying pressure is evident on the charts from DX on Selling sequence. It is important to note that #3,300.80 is new / old Resistance, which was near Weekly High’s as Price-action could find strong rejection there and deny the Buying response in extension. If broken, Price-action will be calling for #3,327.80 extension once again which represents local Top's for current fractal. I will engage my orders accordingly and wait for suitable entry even though I have closed my order ahead of the final push above the Resistance. However, Gold re-tested and was again rejected on the Hourly 4 chart’s Support keeping the Bullish bias alive. The Engulfing candle Bearish reversal candle on Hourly 1 chart succeeded at rejecting the Price-action and catching already the #32% Fibonacci level. I expect the last Daily chart’s candle to test again the #3,272.80 former Resistance now turned to Support when DX finds the Support zone and engages relief rally.
My position: As mentioned above, Gold is ranging and Scalpers are getting most of the returns out of this Price-action. I will await GDP numbers and only then make my move.
XAU / USD 2 Hour ChartHello traders. Just a quick post about my marked areas of interest on the chart. When I take a trade, I scalp trade. Just looking to grab some quick pips and use the same formula I learned. As I am using a high leveraged account, as soon as I am 30 pips in profit, I close 75% of the trade's profit, move my stop loss to break even ( my entry point so no loss) , and I leave the runner ( the remaining 25% of the trade) running. Let's see what the overnight sessions bring and I will post tomorrow. Big G gets my thanks. I hope this post helps someone out and makes sense. Trade smart and trade safe. Be well and trade the trend.
Gold Short: H&S and Wave 3 downOver here, I've labelled all the waves breakdown as well as drawing a tilted head-and-shoulders. I believe that we are going into a wave 3 (minute degree) that is supported by the formation of the right shoulder.
I expect the neckline to be broken which will then goes down to the first resistance provided by the lower blue trendline.
The next resistance in green will be our first TP target. This is where we can choose to reduce the position, or to adjust the stop loss down in order to ride the position. As the lower target cannot be seen without squeezing the chart and causing the waves breakdowns to be unclear, I will update again when that happens.
The stop loss is above the right shoulder.
Good luck!
Gold nears a big breaking pointGold prices have pulled back from the high reached on 22 April and, more importantly, are nearing a break from the recent period of consolidation. Gold is forming a descending triangle, which could provide clues about the direction prices will take.
Typically, a descending triangle is considered a bearish continuation pattern. In this instance, gold has been drifting lower along a downtrend formed intraday on 22 April. Gold is approaching this downtrend line again, having failed to break above it on two previous attempts. A break above this line would be bullish and may sharply increase gold prices, with initial resistance around $3,370 per troy ounce, followed by the recent highs near $3,470.
However, if the pattern is a descending triangle, gold may not break out above the downtrend line. Instead, it could break below support at $3,260, which currently forms the triangle's base. A break below this support could initially send gold back towards $3,210, although the larger risk is a more profound decline down to $2,975.
For now, however, gold is also finding support at its 10-day exponential moving average (EMA), representing another critical level. A breakdown is unlikely if gold can hold above this moving average. Conversely, if gold slips below the 10-day EMA, it could confirm a short-term shift in trend and indicate further downside potential. Additionally, the relative strength index (RSI) is signalling a potential momentum shift, dropping below 70 and showing signs of bearish divergence.
Written by Michael J Kramer, founder of Mott Capital Management
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Gold Reaching Final Wave – Potential Reversal Ahead
Description:
Gold appears to be completing a five-wave Elliott structure with the current move approaching wave (v). The price has now entered a key Fibonacci resistance zone between $3,444 and $3,675, corresponding to the 0.586–0.618 levels.
This area may act as a potential reversal zone, especially with confluence from previous highs and long-term trendlines.
📉 Correction Scenario: If a top forms here, we may see a multi-month correction targeting:
TP1: $2,971 – $2,693
TP2: $2,200 – $2,000 (long-term support zone)
⚠️ Risk Note:
This could be the final leg of the bull run. Risk-reward no longer favors aggressive long positions unless there's a confirmed breakout with high volume.
📌 Monitoring price action around this resistance will be crucial. A sharp rejection here may trigger the beginning of the next corrective phase.
#Gold #XAUUSD #ElliottWave #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingView
XAU/USD Bearish Breakdown Below Resistance – Eyes on 3238Gold (XAU/USD) has broken below the key support-turned-resistance zone around 3294–3300, indicating strong bearish momentum on the 1H timeframe. Price has failed to hold above the previous consolidation zone and is now trending downward.
Key Levels:
• Resistance: 3300 – 3307
• Support 1: 3293
• Support 2: 3277
• Target Support: 3238
Analysis:
The recent bearish breakout below the horizontal support zone, confirmed by a strong bearish candle, suggests a potential continuation of the downtrend. If price remains below 3294, we can expect a move toward the next support level at 3238.
Bias: Bearish
Timeframe: 1H
Confirmation: Retest of 3294–3300 zone as resistance and continued lower lows.
Risk Management:
Ensure proper stop-loss placement above 3307 and manage position sizing carefully due to potential volatility around key support zones.
Gold (XAU/USD) Takes a Breather – Is a Breakout Brewing?Gold remains in a tight consolidation on the 4-hour chart after its historic run to $3,431. Price is trapped in a clear rectangle between ~$3,280 and ~$3,360:
📦 Sideways range suggests indecision after the massive bull run
🔵 50 SMA holding as dynamic support
📉 MACD is flat but trying to cross higher
📊 RSI hovering near neutral at 50 – neither overbought nor oversold
Watch for a break above $3,360 to reignite bullish momentum toward record highs. A break below ~$3,280, however, could signal deeper mean reversion toward trendline or the 200 SMA near ~$3,140.
Patience is key — the next move could set the tone for May.
-MW
Gold Intraday Trading Plan 4/29/2025In my weekly forecast, I expected initial drop for first few days of the week and reverse at the last few days. However, yesterday 3270 was proven to be a strong support, which was tested four times for the past few days. This means correction is over, we have entered another bull's ride.
I am looking to buy from 3320-3330.
1st target 3370, if broken, it will open door for 3500 or even another ATH.
It is advisable to adopt a short-selling approach.Today, gold opened and rebounded to a maximum of around 3,336 before falling back. As of now, gold has touched the bottom again, with the lowest point reaching around 3,368 before rebounding. In our actual trading, we directly entered a long position at around 3,280 - 3,283. The long position has now been closed with a profit at around 3,394. Currently, although the price of gold has rebounded after hitting the bottom, everyone should not think that this rebound means a change in the trend. The overall trend is still to take short positions on rebounds
If your current gold trading performance is not satisfactory and you hope to avoid detours in your investment, you are welcome to communicate and exchange ideas with us!
XAUUSD 28/4/25We're continuing with the same bias we held last month. Right now, gold is probably the easiest pair to trade. Any system that signaled a buy would’ve performed well over the past six months. Price has been trending strongly, making gold one of the most consistently gaining assets.
We're anticipating this momentum to continue, especially as there's a cluster of highly liquid lows surrounding the low formed on Friday. If that low is swept, I expect a clean push to the upside—one that should be relatively easy to follow. Should we get that move, our targets remain the intermediate highs and the long-term high already marked on the chart. We're watching for price action to deliver a clear expansion.
Of course, a deeper pullback is also fine. If our system gives us a long signal, we’ll take it—regardless of the recent COT data showing a reduction in gold long positions. Those positions are still relatively high compared to other assets, so the upward trend is still likely to continue for now.
Remember, fundamentals heavily influence gold’s price action, especially news tied to the USD this week. Stick to your trading plan, manage your risk, and let Orion lead the way.