XAUUSD trade ideas
4/21 Gold Trading StrategyGood morning, everyone! A brand new week begins—wishing us smooth trades and great success ahead.
Looking back to last Thursday, our gold short strategy hit the mark perfectly. Prices dropped nearly $60 as expected, and we captured around $45 in profit from that move. Overall, we secured over $200 in profit space last week—an excellent performance.
Today, gold opened higher and continues to climb. Technically, bulls still have room to push higher, with 3360 as a key resistance level. However, judging by the current momentum, we may even see a test of 3400. That said, trading is about precision, not perfection. If prices approach 3380 and the upward momentum stalls, it may be time to watch for a pullback. On the other hand, if strength continues, holding some light long positions remains a relatively low-risk strategy.
Trading Strategy for Today:
📉 Sell in the 3380–3410 range
📈 Buy in the 3307–3280 range
🔁 Flexible trades between 3360–3330 / 3272–3315
GOLD (XAU/USD) Breakout Watch –Bullish Continuation or Pullback?🔍 Instrument Analysis: XAU/USD (Gold vs USD)
Timeframe: Likely 1H or 4H (based on candle structure)
Indicators:
EMA 50 (Red) – Current value: 3,365.25
EMA 200 (Blue) – Current value: 3,248.04
📈 Current Market Structure
Price: Trading at 3,433.62, in a strong uptrend with higher highs and higher lows.
Trend: Bullish, supported by price trading above both the 50 EMA and 200 EMA.
Key Zones:
Immediate Resistance: ~3,430 - 3,440 zone (currently being tested).
First Support Zone: ~3,315 - 3,330
Second Support Zone: ~3,250 - 3,270
🧠 Scenario Analysis
✅ Bullish Scenario (Primary Bias)
Price is attempting a break and retest of the resistance zone.
If a successful retest confirms it as support, next upside leg could target 3,480+.
Bullish continuation is favored as long as price holds above 3,385 (recent breakout level).
⚠️ Bearish Scenario (Secondary Bias)
If price fails to hold above 3,385, we may see a pullback to:
3,315 - 3,330 support area (reaction likely due to proximity to EMA 50).
A deeper retracement toward the 3,250 zone, aligned with EMA 200, which would be a critical level for bullish continuation or breakdown.
📊 EMA Insight
EMA 50 > EMA 200: Confirms bullish momentum.
The slope of both EMAs is upward, reinforcing current upward trend.
A test of the EMA 50 may offer a buy opportunity if structure holds.
🔔 Trade Outlook
Bullish bias remains intact above 3,385.
Look for bullish price action confirmation (bullish engulfing, pin bars, etc.) on retest of resistance-turned-support.
Monitor volume/activity around 3,385-3,400 for potential rejection or continuation clues.
Gold Potential Bullish Breakout (Potential HH formation)With with continued global tariff panic between USA and China, Gold price still seems to exhibit signs of overall Bullish momentum as the price action may form a prominent Higher High on the shorter timeframes with multiple confluences through key Fibonacci and Support levels which presents us with a potential long opportunity.
Trade Plan:
Entry : 3363
Stop Loss : 3278
TP 0.9 - 1 : 3439.5 - 3448
Safe-haven frenzy boosts gold pricesGold market analysis and operation suggestions (April 21) - Risk aversion frenzy boosts gold prices, 3400 mark is within reach
📌 Current market dynamics:
Affected by the US tariff policy and the continued rise in geopolitical risk aversion, gold continued its unilateral surge this week. Today, it opened higher again, strongly breaking through the historical high of 3357, and accelerated to above 3380. The bullish momentum is extremely strong. According to the recent trend, gold will either consolidate at a high level, and once it starts to rise, it often presents an explosive market of more than 100 US dollars on one side. Therefore, the psychological barrier of 3400 will most likely be tested today, and may even further challenge around 3430!
📊 Technical analysis:
✅ Daily level:
Moving average system: MA5-MA10 maintains golden cross upward, showing a standard bull market arrangement
Bollinger band: The upper track continues to open, without any signs of closing, and there is still room for growth
K-line structure: Continuous large positive lines with large volume, no peak signal, and going long with the trend is still the main tone
✅ Weekly level:
Three consecutive positive lines are strong upward, MACD red column is enlarged, and bulls are obviously in control
No peak signal, any pullback can be regarded as a new buying opportunity
🎯 Key support and resistance:
Support level: 3370 (today's gap), 3357 (previous high support)
Resistance level: 3400 (psychological barrier), 3430 (next target)
🔥 Today's US trading strategy:
1⃣ Aggressive long orders: Go long directly when the price falls back to around 3370, stop loss at 3360, target 3385-3400 (hold to see 3430 if it breaks)
2⃣ Steady long orders: If it falls back to 3357 (previous high support), you can arrange long orders for the second time, stop loss at 3347, target 3380-3400
3⃣ Be cautious with short orders: The current market sentiment is extremely bullish, and the risk of going against the trend is extremely high. Avoid blindly guessing the top!
💡 Trading reminder:
Gold is currently in an extremely strong market, and any pullback is an opportunity to go long
Pay attention to the breakthrough of 3400. If it stands firm, it may accelerate to hit 3430-3450
Strictly stop loss to avoid the risk of violent fluctuations caused by sudden news
🚀 Conclusion: Trend is king, follow the trend and buy low!
Trade talks improve and confidence returns🔔🔔🔔 Gold news:
➡️ Gold prices declined as improved risk sentiment weakened demand for safe-haven assets. Optimistic U.S. macroeconomic data released on Thursday supported the USD, limiting gains for the precious metal.
➡️ On Friday, the U.S. dollar showed signs of recovery as market sentiment remained upbeat due to positive developments in trade negotiations. According to Reuters, the Trump administration appeared to be making progress in preliminary trade talks with Asian allies South Korea and Japan.
Personal opinion:
➡️ The sellers are gaining the upper hand thanks to optimistic news, and the buyers are resting due to little news affecting the upward momentum of gold prices.
The analysis is based on resistance - support levels and Pivot points combined with EMA to come up with a suitable strategy.
Personal plan:
🔆Price Zone Setup:
👉Buy Gold 3281 - 3284
❌SL: 3277 | ✅TP: 3289 - 3294 – 3300
👉Sell Gold 3369 - 3372
❌SL: 3377 | ✅TP: 3365 - 3360 – 3355
FM wishes you a successful trading day 💰💰💰
Gold Technical Analysis🔹 Price Structure:
Price is in a short-term downtrend channel.
Currently trading at $3,336, heading towards a major support zone around $3,315–$3,310.
RSI at 36.6 is nearing oversold territory – indicating downside momentum slowing.
🔹 Key Zones:
Support: $3,315 (major support with bounce potential)
Resistance: $3,380 (target if support holds)
Breakdown target: $3,290 (if major support breaks)
🔹 Price Action Possibilities:
🔁 Bounce Scenario: Price touches major support, RSI bounces, and price rallies back to $3,380 (drawn with the up arrow).
🔻 Breakdown Scenario: Price fails to hold support and drops toward $3,290 (red arrow path).
Gold: Profit on Open, Focus on Key Zones Congrats to everyone who followed my long positions before last Thursday’s market close!
Gold opened higher today, bringing us the first profit of the new week — a great start with accurate direction!
Currently, gold is facing selling pressure near the historical high around 3360. On the 1H chart, technical indicators look solid. Once the pressure is absorbed, there’s a good chance the price may reach new highs today.
However, be cautious: If the upward trend weakens or stalls, there’s a risk of a double top formation — a bearish sign for the bulls.
📌 Key zones to watch today (as marked in the chart):
Support: Around 3308
Resistance: Around 3369
With price at elevated levels, a breakout above resistance often leads to a pullback to retest previous support, so adjust strategies flexibly.
Trading Advice:
Focus on support/resistance flips
Prioritize sell high, buy low within the zone
Manage risk and avoid chasing price blindly
XAUUSD H2 Idea, Aligned with weekly view XAUUSD& SILVER—Risk-On Mood Pressures Prices, Fed Easing Eyed
- Gold and silver prices experienced downward pressure during Friday’s Asian trading session, as a resurgence in risk appetite prompted investors to move away from safe-haven assets. Gold (XAU/USD) fell from an early high of $3,370 to $3,316, while silver (XAG/USD) dipped near $33.44, though it maintained support above $33.18.
- This shift in sentiment was influenced by positive developments in U.S.–China trade relations. Reports indicated that Beijing is considering suspending its 125% tariff on select U.S. goods, and President Trump confirmed ongoing negotiations, with the White House noting progress.
- Additionally, stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data contributed to the decline in precious metal prices. Durable goods orders surged 9.2% in March, surpassing expectations and bolstering the U.S. dollar, which in turn weighed on gold.
Despite these factors, the outlook for gold and silver remains influenced by expectations of Federal Reserve monetary policy. Investors are closely monitoring upcoming U.S. economic indicators, such as the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, for further clues on potential Fed easing.
XAUUSD Price Compression: Ready to Roar or Retreat?The 15-Min chart of XAUUSD is showcasing a classic symmetrical triangle pattern, characterized by converging trendlines—a series of lower highs forming the descending resistance (red zone) and higher lows creating the ascending support (green zone).
This price compression is typically seen before a major breakout, as the market consolidates and traders await a decisive move
Key Highlights:
🔻 Resistance Zone (Red):
Price repeatedly rejects the downward-sloping resistance line.
Each lower high is marked with red arrows, confirming seller dominance at those levels.
Also aligned near the 200 EMA (red line), which adds dynamic resistance.
🟢 Support Zone (Green):
Buyers have consistently stepped in at rising lows, forming a steady uptrend base.
This support is acting as a launchpad, compressing the price within the triangle.
Positioned near the 50 EMA (blue line), reinforcing this support region.
📈 EMAs (Trend Context):
50 EMA below 200 EMA indicates the broader trend remains bearish.
However, price consolidating near both EMAs suggests a potential trend shift if resistance breaks.
Breakout Scenarios to Watch:
✅ Bullish Breakout Potential:
A confirmed candle close above the resistance zone with volume may ignite a rally.
Immediate upside target levels: $3,360, $3,390, and potentially $3,420+.
Would indicate short-term trend reversal and fresh bullish momentum.
❌ Bearish Breakdown Risk:
A break below the ascending support line could trigger aggressive sell-offs.
Downside target levels: $3,290, $3,260, and deeper toward $3,210.
Would validate continuation of the prior downtrend.
📊 Trading Strategy Suggestions:
Breakout traders may wait for a confirmed candle close outside the triangle (with volume).
Range traders can look for bounce trades near support and rejections at resistance until breakout occurs.
Use tight stop-losses due to narrowing range and likely sharp post-breakout volatility.
Consider risk-reward ratio minimum 1:2 when targeting breakouts.
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Disclosure:
I am a participant in TradeNation's Influencer Program and receive a monthly compensation for utilising their TradingView charts in my market analysis.
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Gold price retracement, target 3250?Gold price retracement, target 3250?
As shown in the figure:
Gold price plummeted as expected. Although our short position failed to make a profit, we successfully avoided the risk of liquidation.
The increase in half a month reached an astonishing 500 points, and it fell back by nearly 200 points in less than two days.
However, from the overall structure, it is also a normal retracement point.
Obviously:
Strong support level: 3310-3320 (traders who have not changed their bullish thinking can use this area as a stop loss support level)
Strong pressure level: 3390-3400 (traders who hope to continue to be bearish can use this area as a stop loss pressure level)
I personally think: Without destroying the original bullish trend, the final expectation of this sharp decline will stay around 3250. After that, there will be a reversal and continue to return to the bullish trend.
Judging from the current trend.
I still maintain a bearish attitude.
My strategy:
Look for shorting opportunities in the 3380-3360 range, stop loss: 3390, target: 3320. If it can successfully break through 3320, the next target is 3250.
If it can smoothly fall back to the 3240-3260 range, I will regain my confidence in going long and continue to try the long idea.
Will the price of gold collapse today? NoWill the price of gold collapse today? No
When an avalanche occurs, no snowflake is innocent
When gold falls, no long player is innocent
As shown in the four-hour cycle:
In order to make everyone feel the changes in trends and emotions more intuitively,
I have drawn almost all the center dividing lines.
The current gold price is approaching $3,500,
The trend line has changed from 1-6 lines, and the rise has been out of control.
But the more this trend continues in the short term, the more it means that the rise in gold prices has deviated from the fundamentals.
It is more like a product of emotional catalysis.
Everything will reverse when it reaches the extreme.
Such a trend indicates that a wave of selling is coming.
I am not asking you to short,
but reminding you to be alert to the super waterfall callback that may occur at any time.
We have made a profit of nearly 500 points from 3,000 points to now. As a professional trader, I have only made less than 200 points in the past two weeks.
This means that I am always worried about the huge pressure brought by high-level selling.
At present, no matter from the perspective of structure, support level, increase, volume, ratio, angle, channel and other indicators, the price of gold has completely exceeded the expected rise.
Yesterday I expected it to rise to 3450 points, and today it is close to 3500 points.
Next, I think waiting is the wisest choice.
Of course, you can try to short with a light position near 3500. Please keep a light position and set a stop loss.
Current support level: 3400-3440--3470
Old rules:
As long as the price of gold is higher than 3440, there is only one choice: continue to go long, wait for a decent waterfall as much as possible, and then go long at a low price.
If you have a different opinion, you can leave me a message and we will discuss it together
Gold continues to rise on risk aversionThe bullish trend structure of gold remains unchanged. Don't guess where the top is. From 2600 points at the beginning of the year to 3382 points now, the increase is more than 780 US dollars.
Stimulated by the news, the price of gold has continuously refreshed historical highs this year. In the short-term trend, the correction last Thursday stopped at 3283! The central banks of many countries continue to increase their gold reserves, providing medium- and long-term support for gold prices, indirectly increasing the attractiveness of gold, and causing gold to rise straight at the opening of the Asian session!
In addition, the US government's strengthening of financial supervision has caused the market to worry about the independence of the Federal Reserve. The uncertainty of trade negotiations, the tense situation in the Middle East, the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, etc., continue to drive funds to flow to gold. From many perspectives recently, gold is still bullish in the long term. For our intraday layout, we still wait for the opportunity to fall back and go long. Pay attention to the top and bottom conversion position of 3357 in the Asian session, and buy in with a small adjustment back!
Gold has been rising wildly recently under the stimulus of risk aversion. In this emotional market, you can only trade with the trend, because gold keeps hitting new highs and no one knows where it will rise. However, don't enter the high position easily. After the volatility increases, the amplitude of each callback is also large. Wait patiently for the opportunity to enter.
Key points:
First support: 3367, second support: 3348, third support: 3333
First resistance: 3386, second resistance: 3400, third resistance: 3415
Operation ideas:
Buy: 3357-3360, SL: 3348, TP: 3380-3390;
Sell: 3403-3405, SL: 3414, TP: 3380-3370;
Crazy gold, follow me and make moneyThis week, the market focused on three major issues: Trump's tariff policy, the US-Iran nuclear negotiations and the Fed's interest rate decision. The tariff policy directly pushed up inflation expectations, weakened the purchasing power of the US dollar, and at the same time aggravated the market's risk aversion, which was doubly good for gold. If the US-Iran nuclear negotiations achieve a breakthrough, it may ease the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and suppress the demand for gold as a safe haven in the short term, but in the long term, if the negotiations are repeated or no substantive agreement is reached, gold is still expected to gain support. In terms of the Fed's interest rate decision, if it maintains a dovish stance, it will further suppress the dollar and support gold.
At the opening of today's market, the gold price directly rose to break through the new high of 3396, and accelerated after breaking the previous high, setting a new historical high again. Both the monthly and weekly charts show a perfect upward trend, and the technical indicators continue to rise. Both the long and medium lines are bullish. At present, the upper resistance is 3396-3400, and the lower support is 3354-3349. The evening operation is recommended to be long on the callback, and the rebound is supplemented by high short.
Operation strategy 1: It is recommended to rebound 3396-3403 short, stop loss 3410, and the target is 3380-3360.
Operation strategy 2: It is recommended to pull back 3355-3350 long, stop loss 3343, and the target is 3380-3400.
Elliot Wave B then C on 4hrTo confirm a low is in and Wave B’s final leg is starting:
✅ 15M CHoCH – Price must break previous lower high (LL > HL shift).
✅ Bullish volume surge on breakout.
✅ Higher low retest (entry zone).
✅ RSI breaks above 50.
This would line up with a reversal inside your 4H Demand/Reaction Block, adding confluence from both timeframes.
Gold trend picks directionGold fell by 230 USD in a row on the daily line. Currently, 3500 is under short-term pressure. Today, we will focus on the continuity of the decline. It directly rushed from 3288 to 3310 in 5 minutes after opening. Yesterday, it hit the lowest point of 3258 above the 0.5 division of 2956-3500. This position is temporarily supported and rebounded, but whether the adjustment is over is still uncertain. It depends on the intraday closing pattern. If today's closing can stand above the MA5 daily moving average resistance of 3358 again, then there will be signs of the end of the downward adjustment, and the next day must be accompanied by a positive line. Pull up; on the contrary, if it closes below the 5-day MA, then there is a high probability that the 10-day moving average position will continue to decline, and then the 50-division position 3228 is further down, which happens to be the starting point of the big positive on April 16. This is likely to be the end point of this round of adjustment, or there will not be much room to go down, because from the standard wave pattern, it cannot fall below the first wave high, which is 3167, which is also the current middle track; therefore, either 3228 will stabilize on dips, or somewhere in the 3228-3167 area will stabilize, and then finally return to the bullish trend and pull up
The short-term 4-hour middle track 3380 has been lost and has become a key counter-pressure point. As long as it does not stand above it again, it will maintain a downward correction. After breaking 3292 below, the 66-day moving average of 3260 will be the loser or loser; the 1-hour K-line is under pressure from ma10 and ma5 and continues to fall. After yesterday's consolidation and pull-up, the K-line has now re-run above ma10, and the macd has formed a golden cross below the zero axis. This wave of 200 US dollars of rapid decline has almost corrected most of it. If it continues downward for another wave, or with the help of bottom divergence, it will slowly brew a short-term bottom; today's gold rebound focuses on the resistance below 3367, below the extreme middle track of 3380, and it is still bearish if it cannot withstand the pressure. If the strong support of 3260 or 3245-28 is stable, we will start to consider bottom-fishing.
XAU/USD "The Gold" Metal Market Heist Plan (Swing/Day Trade)🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟
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Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the XAU/USD "The Gold" Metal Market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes long entry. Our aim is the high-risk Red zone area. It's a Risky level, overbought market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bearish robbers are stronger. 🏆💸"Take profit and treat yourself, traders. You deserve it!💪🏆🎉
Entry 📈 : "The heist is on! Wait for the MA breakout (3400) then make your move - Bullish profits await!"
however I advise to Place Buy stop orders above the Moving average (or) Place buy limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe most recent or swing, low or high level for Pullback entries.
📌I strongly advise you to set an "alert (Alarm)" on your chart so you can see when the breakout entry occurs.
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📍 Thief SL placed at the nearest/swing low level Using the 2H timeframe (3280) Day / Swing trade basis.
📍 SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take.
🏴☠️Target 🎯: 3700 (or) Escape Before the Target
🧲Scalpers, take note 👀 : only scalp on the Long side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰.
💰💵💸XAU/USD "The Gold" Metal Market Heist Plan (Swing/Day Trade) is currently experiencing a Bullish trend.., driven by several key factors.☝☝☝
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⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏
As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions,
we recommend the following:
Avoid taking new trades during news releases
Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits
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