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XAUUSD trade ideas

XAUUSD - gold waiting for the Federal Reserve meeting!Gold is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 1H time frame and is trading in its medium-term bearish channel. In the authentic failure of the support area, we can see the continuation of the gold decline and the demand zone. Within the zone of demand, we can buy with a suitable risk reward. If the resistance range is broken, you can sell in the supply zone. The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting is scheduled for today. According to a recent report by Crédit Agricole, it is expected that during the December meeting, the interest rate will be reduced by 0.25%, bringing it to a range of 4.25-4.50%. While this rate cut has largely been priced into the market, the Fed’s monetary statement may carry a hawkish tone. It is anticipated that the Federal Reserve will indicate slower rate cuts in 2025 due to resilient economic conditions and persistent inflation. Crédit Agricole predicts that Jerome Powell, the Fed Chair, will likely hint at pausing rate cuts early in 2025. Additionally, recent employment and inflation data from November suggest that the Fed is in a position to implement this rate cut. However, the risks associated with persistent inflation indicate that the rate-cutting cycle will progress more gradually. Crédit Agricole estimates that interest rate projections for 2025 could be revised to 3.625% and for 2026 to 3.125%. These figures represent reductions of 0.75% in 2025 and 0.5% in 2026, showing smaller decreases compared to earlier forecasts. According to the Financial Times, Israeli negotiators have met with mediators in Doha to discuss a ceasefire with Hamas and the release of hostages from Gaza. These talks are taking place ahead of Donald Trump’s inauguration in January. Both Israeli and U.S. officials remain cautiously optimistic about reaching an agreement, though disagreements over key details persist. The Israeli negotiating team arrived in Qatar on Monday, focusing on resolving major points of contention. It is expected that both sides will respond to a recent mediator proposal, which includes a six-to-eight-week ceasefire and the release of hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners. These discussions have intensified following Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. elections. Steven Witkoff, Trump’s envoy to the Middle East, has met with Benjamin Netanyahu and Qatar’s Prime Minister to advance the agreement. Despite progress, significant challenges remain, including disagreements over the number of hostages to be freed and the presence of Israeli forces in Gaza. While Hamas has softened its stance somewhat, substantial differences still exist. UBS, in its recent report, has projected that gold prices will reach $2,900 per ounce by the end of 2025. A key factor highlighted by UBS is the continued demand for gold from central banks, driven by the declining value of the dollar and diversification of reserves. UBS expects central bank gold purchases to remain strong throughout 2025, supporting elevated gold prices. Moreover, investor demand for gold as a hedge against geopolitical and policy uncertainties will play a significant role in maintaining high gold prices. UBS points to ongoing concerns about the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Middle Eastern tensions, and uncertain fiscal and trade policies under the incoming administration of Donald Trump. These factors could boost investment in gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Lower interest rates and a weaker U.S. dollar are additional factors that could drive gold prices higher. UBS predicts that interest rate cuts will continue and the dollar will weaken further, which will bolster demand for gold. In addition to gold, UBS has identified opportunities in copper and other transition metals. Global investments in power generation, energy storage, and electric transportation are expected to serve as long-term drivers of demand for these metals.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
Gold Price Today, December 24: Unexpected Reversal and DeclineHello everyone, Merry Christmas! Let's update the gold price for today: Gold is currently at $2,616 per ounce, down by $16 from the highest point of $2,629 per ounce during yesterday’s trading session. Gold is under pressure from the strengthening USD and rising U.S. bond yields, as investors await signals regarding the potential for U.S. interest rate cuts in 2025. In my view, the rate-cutting path may pause in January or March. At the moment, the USD Index has risen by 0.4%, reaching 108.08 points, which has reduced gold’s appeal. U.S. bond yields have also increased to 4.58%, attracting capital into bonds and decreasing the flow of funds into the gold market. As a result, the gold price continues to decline today. Looking at the technical chart, the EMA 89 has crossed below the EMA 34, indicating a clear downtrend. With resistance at $2,626, the price of gold has been pushed down to $2,610, and maintaining support at this level seems challenging. If there are no significant changes, the price is likely to break through the support and continue falling to the previous support level at $2,585. If this trend persists, gold could decline further and potentially break through the $2,585 support level.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Alisa_Rokosz
XAUUSD Flag m15 The flag pattern in the 15-minute timeframe for gold is a strong continuation pattern, and if it’s currently forming with a bullish setup, it could provide an excellent opportunity for a Buy trade. Here's how to approach it: Steps for Analysis and Trade Execution: Identify the Pattern: Previous Trend: The trend before the flag should be bullish (flagpole). Correction Phase: A small, downward-sloping channel (the flag itself). Breakout: Look for a breakout above the flag's resistance. Confirm the Breakout: Check if volume increases during the breakout. Ensure the breakout candle is strong (a large body with small or no wicks). Entry Point (Buy): Enter the trade after the price breaks above the flag’s resistance. You can also wait for a pullback to the broken resistance (now acting as support) for a safer entry. Stop Loss Placement: Place your stop loss below the recent swing low or beneath the flag’s support line. Take Profit (Target): Measure the length of the flagpole and project it upward from the breakout point to determine your target
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by imodaresi
World gold prices slightly decreased as the USD increasedHowever, the precious metal is under some pressure as the dollar index rose sharply and US Treasury yields rose slightly. The Conference Board reported on Monday that its US consumer confidence index fell to 104.7, down from a revised 112.8 in November. The reading was weaker than expected, with economists predicting the index would be largely unchanged. “Expectations that consumer confidence would continue to recover were not realized in December, as the index fell back to its two-year average,” said Dana Peterson, chief economist at the Conference Board. Gold is struggling to find its way amid the holiday lull, said James Hyerczyk, an analyst at FX Empire. “The Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance and forecast of fewer rate cuts in 2025 are keeping gold under pressure. The precious metal will face key support tests during the holiday week
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FalCol_TradingMaster
12.23 Technical Analysis of Gold Short-term OperationsLast week, the gold market opened at 2650.3 at the beginning of the week, then rose slightly to 2664.7, then fluctuated and fell. The weekly line reached a low of 2582.6, then rose at the end of the trading day, and finally closed at 2622.8, and then the market closed in a hammer-like pattern with a long lower shadow. After this pattern ended, the weekly line was rubbed and consolidated. In terms of points, today's decline to 2610, stop loss at 2600, and the target is 2635 and 2640.
TVC:GOLDLong
by AIan_Gold
1
WHAT MOVES LIES AHEAD OF GOLD?FUNDAMENTAL VIEW It’s a quiet week on the economic calendar as the holiday spirit takes center stage, but gold remains in focus. What moves lie ahead for the precious metal? From a fundamental perspective, the FED’s recent 25bps rate cut, paired with a cautious stance on future rate changes, has influenced gold prices. Furthermore, softer U.S inflation data for November has also weakened the dollar and lowered Treasury yields. Hence providing support for gold. This week, markets will keep an eye on U.S. consumer confidence data later today at 7 PM GMT+4. Tomorrow, December 24, 2024, key releases include Core durable goods, durable goods, new home sales, and the Richmond manufacturing index. On Thursday, the weekly unemployment claims are expected, with a forecast of 218K. These and other economic indicators could impact gold prices, given their inverse relationship with the dollar. TECHNICAL VIEW On the daily timeframe, the price is struggling and currently trading below the 50 period EMA at $2,640.493, showing a -28% decrease today after a brief uptick during the Asian session, following significant losses last week. The price is currently leaning bearish, with a potential target at $2,582.181. If this level is broken, the next support targets could be $2,553.488 and $2,489.954. Alternatively, if bullish momentum takes over, the price could rise to $2,655.962, followed by $2,722.389 and then $2,787.129.
CFI:XAUUSD
by CFI
XAUUSD For incoming weekXAUUSD is currently taking a breather after the sharp downward push caused by the FOMC. Personally, I believe it will end up closing the candle that initiated the move after the FOMC, around 2636.80, where I’ve marked the respective order block, to absorb all the liquidity generated during its decline, before resuming its bearish trend. Remember that nothing is certain in the financial markets, and this is just my personal analysis. Keep in mind that the price could still rise further to take more liquidity (Everything is up in the air depending on what happens next). Let me know your thoughts in the comments!!
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by ScoccaMarco_