CHECK XAUUSD SIGNAL READ CAPTAINTrade Direction: Short (sell)
Entry Point: Around 3345.000 3342.000
Stop Loss: Around 3355.000
🎯 Target Levels
Take Profit 1:
3332.000
Take Profit 2:
3318.000
Last Target:
3300.000
XAUUSD trade ideas
Report - 17 jully, 2025Executive Notes – Summary
Tariffs Bring In $50bn+ for U.S.: Global partners mostly restrained; only China and Canada retaliated. EU delays action until Aug 1. → Bullish short-term for USD revenue and equities tied to U.S. industrial base; long-term inflation risk rising.
Trump vs Powell (Fed Chair): Trump floated firing Powell; market volatility followed. Odds hit 40%, fell after walk-back. → Bearish for DXY, bullish for XAUUSD and risk hedges.
China-Japan Espionage Flashpoint: Japanese executive jailed. U.S. and Japanese corporates face higher operational risk. → Negative FDI outlook for China, positive momentum for India, Vietnam.
EU–Mercosur Trade Deal at Risk: France demands safeguards on beef, sugar, poultry. Deal approval hinges on political concessions. → Watch agri-commodities (softs), BRL, and EU agri-lobby impacts.
ASML Profit Warning: Trump tariff fears cloud 2026 chip industry outlook; shares drop 11%. → Bearish on EU semis, capital goods.
Nvidia China Deal Revival: U.S. set to grant export licenses for AI GPUs; H20 shipments may resume. → Bullish for China AI adoption and semis; BABA, BIDU, NVDA in rebound territory.
Goldman & JPM Rally on IB Recovery: M&A/IPO flows return; +26% YoY IB fees. → Signals CEO confidence; bullish for dealmakers and sector ETFs (KCE, XLF).
Subsea Cable Ban on China: FCC to block Chinese tech in U.S.-linked subsea networks. → Signals rising digital Cold War; tech supply chains shifting westward.
Germany’s Allianz CEO Sounds Alarm: Warns of fiscal collapse by 2035 if welfare spending not reformed. → Supports hard-asset thesis; bearish EU fiscal stability perception.
Crypto Week & Stablecoin Push: Cantor-led SPAC to buy $4B BTC; U.S. fast-tracking stablecoin rules. → Bullish BTC, USDT dominance, and crypto-native banking platforms.
Full Strategic Macro & Market Analysis
President Trump’s aggressive tariff policy is achieving both economic and political outcomes ahead of the election: $64 billion in Q2 customs revenues and symbolic victory over hesitant global peers. According to Treasury data, tariffs have surged income by over $47 billion YoY. This influx comes with asymmetric retaliation: only China and Canada have meaningfully responded. The EU, under pressure from France’s agricultural bloc, has paused countermeasures, awaiting August 1 negotiations.
The market's muted reaction reflects the novelty of tariffs being treated as quasi-fiscal tools. Yet, the Yale Budget Lab’s finding of a 20.6% effective average tariff — the highest since 1910 — is an inflationary wildcard. UBS projects that core goods prices may push CPI above 2.3% until 2027 without policy reversal, eroding real incomes and squeezing margins across consumer sectors. As noted by Fed officials like John Williams, tariffs alone are lifting inflation by a full percentage point over the next 12 months.
At the same time, Trump’s remarks about firing Fed Chair Powell jolted Treasury and currency markets. The DXY fell nearly 0.9% intraday, while 2-year U.S. yields dropped to 3.90%, pricing in a potentially more dovish successor. This political volatility amplified market preference for inflation hedges and high-quality equity earnings.
Assets:
XAUUSD (Gold):
Trump’s Fed confrontation, rising CPI prints, and global legal-institutional instability support continued gold upside. Technical momentum remains bullish. If DXY dips below 103 and Powell uncertainty rises, gold could retest $2,450.
S&P 500 & Dow Jones:
Rotation continues. Industrials and financials (e.g., Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan) gain from tariff-driven reshoring and M&A revival. However, semis and global tech face drag from ASML warnings and U.S.–China tech decoupling. Dow holds better given dividend strength, but risk spikes if Powell is removed or tariffs push inflation past 3%.
USDJPY:
USD weakening bias persists on Fed risk, though yen gains are capped by geopolitical risk in Asia (e.g., Chinese jet near Japan, espionage cases) and Japan’s sluggish growth. A move toward 152 is possible if Powell exits or the Fed pivots dovishly.
DXY (Dollar Index):
Trump’s instability narrative, threats to Fed credibility, and rising CPI are weighing on the dollar. Watch for a decisive breakdown below 103, especially if ECB/BoE turn hawkish or U.S. deficit headlines worsen.
Crude Oil (WTI):
Supported by strong commodity complex (steel, copper, aluminum all up), tariffs on inputs, and stable OPEC+. Bullish bias into Q3, with demand steady and risk premia rising from China tensions and Middle East unrest.
Macro Risks
Fed Politicization: Powell’s premature dismissal could unravel market confidence in the U.S. rate regime. Bonds and USD would sell off; capital flight risk rises.
Persistent Inflation: Tariffs risk pushing CPI above 3% in 2025. Long-end yields will respond faster than the Fed.
Tech War Escalation: Subsea cable bans, Huawei exclusion, and AI chip controls could trigger further retaliation from China.
EU-Mercosur Breakdown: French farming veto could stall EU diversification efforts and strengthen protectionist politics in Europe.
Emerging Opportunities
U.S. Banks and Dealmakers: Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan gains point to a rebound in capital markets activity. KCE ETF, GS, and MS are prime exposure vehicles.
AI-Semiconductor Complex (Selective): Nvidia’s China deal reversal allows for a tactical rebound in NVDA, BIDU, BABA, despite broader export controls.
Bitcoin Accumulation Wave: Trump-aligned SPACs (Cantor Equity Partners 1, BSTR Holdings) are spearheading institutional BTC acquisition. Stablecoin legislation expected to favor U.S. dollar dominance.
Dividend-Centric Strategies: Payout increases from industrials (Costamare, ILPT) outnumber dividend cuts. Defensive dividend plays are outperforming growth narratives in volatile macro backdrops.
Possibilities:
XAUUSD (Gold)
Short-Term (1–4 weeks): Likely to stay elevated or push higher amid Fed independence concerns and strong CPI tailwinds. A sustained move above $2,400 opens a path to $2,450–2,480, especially if Powell’s status deteriorates or the DXY breaks 103.
Medium-Term (3–6 months): Remains supported by structural inflation and global de-dollarization themes (e.g., stablecoins, geopolitical risk in Asia, digital infrastructure war). Positioning may increase if the Fed turns more political.
S&P 500
Short-Term: High volatility. Earnings remain solid, especially in financials and industrials, but valuation compression risk persists if long-end rates stay above 5%. Potential 1–2% pullbacks on Powell uncertainty.
Medium-Term: Rotation-led upside possible if Fed stability is restored. But if tariffs worsen CPI and margins compress, we could see a multi-month consolidation. AI and industrial resilience may cap downside.
USDJPY
Short-Term: Expected to test downside near 152. Japanese yen gaining haven demand, and dovish Fed risk undermines USD strength. If risk sentiment worsens (China, Powell), JPY outperforms.
Medium-Term: Neutral-to-bearish. If the Fed resumes cuts or dollar confidence erodes, USDJPY could move sub-150. BOJ remains dovish, limiting gains beyond that.
DXY (US Dollar Index)
Short-Term: Under pressure. If Powell's removal gains traction or more tariffs fuel CPI, DXY may decisively lose 103 support. Temporary rebounds on safe-haven flows possible.
Medium-Term: Bearish bias forming. Stablecoin growth, Trump-led policy volatility, and global diversification efforts (e.g., EU trade deals) weigh on demand for USD assets.
Crude Oil (WTI)
Short-Term: Bullish tone holds. Supply-side support from OPEC+, tariffs lifting input costs, and solid U.S. industrial activity. Potential retest of $85/bbl.
Medium-Term: Risk of higher volatility. If global growth slows (China contraction or Fed missteps), oil could retreat to mid-$70s. But inflationary pressure remains net supportive.
Dow Jones Industrial Average
Short-Term: Outperforming due to resilient bank earnings, dividend momentum, and defensive bias. Likely to remain range-bound with modest upward drift unless Powell is ousted.
Medium-Term: Cautiously bullish. Dividend themes remain strong, and industrials benefit from tariff protection. But inflation and long-duration debt concerns could cap gains.
Falling correction, shorting in European session📰 News information：
1. Beige Book of Federal Reserve's economic situation
2. European and American tariff trade negotiations
📈 Technical Analysis：
Currently, gold continues to consolidate around 3340, and the daily MACD indicator is stuck to the zero axis. Two consecutive days of negative bars also indicate that the overall trend of gold is weak and volatile. The hourly Bollinger Bands are closing, with the upper band located near 3352. The corresponding positions of the upper pressure middle band and SMA60 are basically at 3335-3350, but it is expected to gradually decline over time. On the whole, there are no particularly clear trading signals at present. Both bulls and bears have certain opportunities. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being. Pay attention to the 3342-3352 area above. If the bearish trend is confirmed in the future, you can consider shorting when it rebounds here, with the target at 3330-3325. If gold retreats directly to 3325-3320 and gains effective support again, you can consider going long.
🎯 Trading Points：
SELL 3342-3352
TP 3330-3325
BUY 3325-3320
TP 3340-3350
In addition to investment, life also includes poetry, distant places, and Allen. Facing the market is actually facing yourself, correcting your shortcomings, facing your mistakes, and exercising strict self-discipline. I share free trading strategies and analysis ideas every day for reference by brothers. I hope my analysis can help you.
FXOPEN:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD FX:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD
Gold Chart Triangle PatternThis structure currently favors a contracting triangle, now developing the E wave of the pattern. It remains valid as long as the price stays above 3246.550. A safe trade setup would be to wait for a breakout above the D wave.
Gold breast analysis (read caption) Hi trader
Good current price: 3336
Gold is break supporter zone gold now target 3320 and 3310
And stop loss 3346
Please like comments and follow thank you
It is expected to fluctuate and fall before CPI data📰 News information：
1. Focus on tomorrow's CPI data
2. Bowman's speech at the Federal Reserve
3. Tariff information outflows and countries' responses to tariff issues
📈 Technical Analysis：
The 1H chart shows that the gold price continued to pull back last night and then fluctuated at the bottom, and continued the rebound trend this morning. The key pressure level is the top and bottom conversion level. The current rebound in gold is only a secondary confirmation of the top structure at the 30-minute level. After reaching 3365, it has shown signs of short-term pressure. In a volatile market, if the price begins to consolidate horizontally, it may indicate the end of this round of volatile upward trend, and it will enter a downward phase later. Considering the market sensitivity before the release of CPI data, it is recommended to focus on the volatile decline trend. After today's rebound, it is necessary to focus on the 3365-3368 area as a short-selling range, and the long-short defense position is set at yesterday's intraday high of 3375. The support below focuses on the 3350-3340 range.
🎯 Trading Points：
SELL 3358-3368
TP 3345-3333
In addition to investment, life also includes poetry, distant places, and Allen. Facing the market is actually facing yourself, correcting your shortcomings, facing your mistakes, and exercising strict self-discipline. I share free trading strategies and analysis ideas every day for reference by brothers. I hope my analysis can help you.
FXOPEN:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD FX:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD
Gold recently tapped into key liquidity zones✨ Gold Market Update – Key Insights You Need to Know ✨
Gold recently tapped into key liquidity zones—specifically the highs of the previous day and the previous week. After grabbing liquidity at those levels, the market closed below them, signaling a potential shift in momentum.
🔻 What could be next?
This price behavior suggests we might see further downside in the short term, possibly targeting the Fair Value Gap (FVG) below. If that area is reached, the market may find support and stage a rebound, potentially triggering a strong bullish move from that zone.
📊 What to watch for:
Price reaction around the FVG
Confirmation of support before entering any long positions
Volume and structure shifts on lower timeframes
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always Do Your Own Research (DYOR) and manage risk wisely.
XAUUSD – Topping Out, Correction Pressure MountsGold prices are stalling after approaching the key resistance at $3,381, precisely at the upper boundary of the short-term ascending channel. The bullish momentum is fading as the USD and U.S. bond yields remain firm, supported by stable jobs data and a lack of clear rate guidance from the Fed.
Additionally, the World Gold Council (WGC) has warned of medium-term correction risks if geopolitical tensions ease or the dollar continues to strengthen — prompting buyers to stay cautious. In the near term, XAUUSD may pull back toward the $3,295 support zone before the market defines its next direction.
Gold Strategy: Long in 3320-3330 & TargetsDuring Friday’s (July 18th) US trading session, spot gold traded in a narrow range with a downward bias 😔, currently hovering around 3350.05. Thursday saw spot gold stage a heart-stopping "deep V" move 😲! Driven by the dual catalysts of the US June retail sales surging 0.6% (beating expectations) and initial jobless claims dropping to 221,000, the US Dollar Index once spiked to a monthly high of 98.95, instantly slamming spot gold to an intraday low of 3309.82. Surprisingly, however, gold prices then staged a strong rebound, closing at 3338.86 with a mere 0.25% decline.
This "fake dip" pattern reveals a deep-seated contradiction in the current market – while economic data temporarily supports dollar strength, investors’ inflation concerns triggered by tariffs are forming an "invisible buying force" for gold 💪. The concurrent rise in the dollar and US Treasury yields has indeed weighed on gold prices, yet robust buying interest emerges at every dip window. Behind this phenomenon lies shrewd capital quietly positioning itself. When the 10-year US Treasury yield climbed to a monthly high of 4.495%, gold refused to fall further – this divergence signals significant market 分歧 over the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory 😕.
Gold Trend Analysis:
Gold remains in a bullish trend 👍. From the daily chart perspective, gold continued its strong upward momentum today, closing with a positive candle. Technically, the MACD bullish energy bars have started to expand, and the KDJ is in a golden cross heading upward, indicating that the overall price is in a strong phase. As long as gold doesn’t break below 3320, the market is expected to continue its upward trajectory, potentially targeting 3375-3400. If it fails to break through, gold may see a minor short-term pullback. If the pullback doesn’t break 3330, gold is likely to gather momentum again to attack 3375; a break below would shift focus to the 3310 support level. As long as 3310 holds, gold remains in a bullish rebound structure. Next week’s broad range is expected to be 3375-3310.
On the 4-hour chart, the KDJ indicator, after being oversold, has started to turn upward and is now in a golden cross. Notably, this upward move has been accompanied by clear medium bullish candles, making KDJ a more reliable indicator here – the potential for continued bullish candles remains high 😃. The MACD fast line is turning upward at a high level, on the verge of another golden cross, with green energy bars continuing to contract and poised to turn red by inertia. Overall, gold’s current trend is either consolidating or rising. Given the clear bullish bias, we can consider firmly going long first, and only observe the possibility of shorting when KDJ approaches the upper 100 level and the MACD fast/slow lines are about to cross.
Focus on buying on pullbacks. The short-term support levels lie at 3330-3320 – as long as these levels hold, they present buying opportunities. If gold rises during the US session, watch whether 3365 and 3375 are broken; a failure to break through could bring pullback space, offering opportunities for short-term short positions.
Gold Trading Strategy 😎: Go long decisively once on the first pullback to the 3320-3330 range 😏, with targets looking at the 3350-3360 range – just wait for profits to roll in 💰!
🚀 Buy @3320 - 3330
🚀 TP 3340 - 3350
Accurate signals are updated every day 📈 If you encounter any problems during trading, these signals can serve as your reliable guide 🧭 Feel free to refer to them! I sincerely hope they'll be of great help to you 🌟 👇
XAU/USD Forms Bearish Continuation Triangle – Future Downside
XAU/USD (4H) | FX | Gold Spot vs US Dollar
🔴 SHORT BIAS
📅 Updated: July 18
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🔍 Description
Gold is trading within a bearish contracting triangle, suggesting a continuation move to the downside after the recent corrective bounce. Price is currently approaching the key 3,371–3,376 resistance zone, which aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and upper triangle boundary.
This resistance confluence could mark the termination of the (E) wave of the triangle, paving the way for a larger downward thrust. A confirmed break below 3,302 would open the door toward 3,221 as the next major target.
The structure also leaves room for a minor internal triangle (a)-(b)-(c)-(d)-(e) pattern within the broader range, reinforcing the bearish setup.
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📊 Technical Structure (4H)
✅ Bearish contracting triangle: (A)-(B)-(C)-(D)-(E)
✅ 78.6% Fibonacci + supply zone = ideal rejection point
✅ Internal triangle projection aligns with lower support test
📌 Downside Targets
Target 1: 3,302.47
Target 2: 3,221.78
🔻 Invalidation: Above 3,376.03
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📈 Market Outlook
Macro View: Rising real yields and cooling inflation reduce gold’s appeal
Fed Watch: Hawkish tone supports USD, weighing on XAU
Technical View: Structure favors downside break from triangle formation
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⚠️ Risks to Bias
Break and daily close above 3,376.03 invalidates triangle structure
Sudden risk-off sentiment or dovish Fed shift could boost gold demand
Sharp reversal in dollar strength
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🧭 Summary: Bearish Breakout Setup Forming
XAU/USD is completing a bearish triangle structure, with price sitting just below resistance. A rejection from the 3,371–3,376 zone can trigger a breakout lower, first toward 3,302, then extending to 3,221. As always, confirmation and tight risk control are key.
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XAUUSD M30 BUY SETUP FOR TODAYScenario:
Best buy zone for Gold as of now: 3327–3323 💰
Strong Order Block zone + Double Bottom pattern 📉📈
Let’s ride the 🚀 from here — follow proper risk management! 🛡️📊
Gold bullish breakout supported at 3308The Gold remains in a bullish trend, with recent price action showing signs of a continuation breakout within the broader uptrend.
Support Zone: 3308 – a key level from previous consolidation. Price is currently testing or approaching this level.
A bullish rebound from 3308 would confirm ongoing upside momentum, with potential targets at:
3387 – initial resistance
3400 – psychological and structural level
3435 – extended resistance on the longer-term chart
Bearish Scenario:
A confirmed break and daily close below 3308 would weaken the bullish outlook and suggest deeper downside risk toward:
3290 – minor support
3268 – stronger support and potential demand zone
Outlook:
Bullish bias remains intact while the Gold holds above 3308. A sustained break below this level could shift momentum to the downside in the short term.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
Gold 15-Min Chart Analysis Alert!Gold has successfully broken above the descending trendline, showing early signs of bullish momentum. Price has reclaimed structure and is now trading above the breakout level.
📌 Retest Zone:
We can expect a possible pullback towards the marked zone for a healthy retest before continuing the upward move.
🎯 Bullish Target:
As long as price holds above the support area, the bullish bias remains intact with targets around 3351+.
7/18: Watch 3343 Resistance, Guard Against Break Below 3323Good morning, everyone!
Yesterday, gold broke below the 3337 support after consolidating there, driven lower by bearish data, and eventually reached the 3323–3312 support zone. A rebound followed, and price has now returned above 3323, which also aligns with the daily MA60.
📌 Key Levels to Watch Today:
Resistance: 3343 / 3352–3358
→ A sustained break above 3343 opens the door for a potential move toward 3366 / 3372–3378;
Support: 3323 / 3312
→ If price remains capped below resistance and weekly close is under 3323, it will signal bearish structural pressure for the medium term.
📌 Trading Strategy:
Trade flexibly within the range of 3358–3343–3332–3323–3312
📌 Important Reminder:
If today’s closing price is below 3323, and you're planning to hold positions over the weekend, it’s safer to lean short. While we can’t predict weekend news, technically, bears have the upper hand, so risk control is essential.
Gold short term shortGold is still trading within the down channel as the market closes, shorts are valid until price hits 3310.
GOLD LONG SETUP Gold Bullish Long Setup
Startegy : FVG + MSS + BUY STRUCTURE
Where To Buy ?
3329 - 3320 Area FVG Buy
Targets : 3350 , 3355, 3360
Stop Loss Previous Low
Gold Opens at 3320’s — Bullish Momentum Eyes 3350’sGold market opens the week at 3320’s during the Asian Session, signaling a potential bullish momentum resurgence. Current sentiment aligns with a projected move towards the 3350’s, maintaining the bullish structure.follow for more insights , comment and boost idea
Gold (XAU/USD) Analysis – July 15, 2025As outlined in our previous analyses, we anticipated a potential reversal before gold could reach the $3400 zone.
We also noted that any upward movement followed by a solid rejection could offer a valid short (sell) opportunity.
📉 Yesterday’s market reaction to the CPI release, with a drop of nearly 500 pips, has now confirmed this bearish setup.
📌 Based on current price structure, the $3350–$3360 area appears ideal for seeking short entries.
🎯 All target levels previously mentioned remain valid and in play.
Onwards and upwards Clean 1:2 set up. Price failed to break support 3 times hence why my bias is long.
