GOLD Fundamentals Affecting Gold Prices and Correlation with U.S. Bond Yields
Key Factors Driving Gold Prices
Safe-Haven Demand:
Geopolitical tensions (e.g., U.S.-China trade wars, Russia-Ukraine conflict) and economic uncertainty drive investors to gold as a refuge, pushing prices to record highs
Declining confidence in traditional safe havens like the U.S. dollar and Treasuries amplifies gold’s appeal .
Central Bank Policies:
Aggressive gold purchases by central banks (e.g., China, Russia,india ) to diversify reserves and hedge against sanctions underpin demand, removing significant supply from markets .
The Federal Reserve’s cautious rate policy (steady at 4.25–4.50% in 2025) and subdued real interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold
Gold thrives when real rates (nominal rates minus inflation) are low or negative. Despite moderating inflation, real yields remain depressed, sustaining gold’s attractiveness .
Expectations of stagflation (rising inflation + weak growth) historically favor gold over bonds .
U.S. Dollar Weakness:
A 9% decline in the USD Index (2025) makes gold cheaper for foreign buyers, boosting demand .
Central banks’ shift away from dollar reserves further pressures the currency, indirectly supporting gold .
Supply-Demand Dynamics:
Stagnant mining output (annual growth: 2–3%) and rising extraction costs constrain supply, while ETF inflows and industrial/jewelry demand add upward pressure .
Gold’s Correlation with U.S. Bond Yields
Traditionally, gold and bond yields exhibit an inverse relationship: higher yields (from rising rates) increase the opportunity cost of holding gold. However, recent dynamics have disrupted this pattern:
2024–2025 Anomaly:
Concurrent rises in gold prices and Treasury yields occurred due to:
Geopolitical Risks: Tariffs, trade wars, and conflict-driven inflation fears spurred demand for both gold (as a hedge) and bonds (as yields rose on inflation expectations) .
Bear Steepening: Long-term yields outpaced short-term ones, reflecting expectations of prolonged inflation or growth, which gold historically offsets .
Example: In March 2025, gold hit $3,500/oz as 10-year yields rose to 4.37% amid tariff escalations .
Mechanisms Behind the Shift:
Inflation Hedge: Gold’s role as an inflation hedge outweighs yield-driven opportunity costs when investors anticipate sustained price pressures .
Loss of Confidence in Traditional Assets: Eroding trust in the U.S. dollar and Treasuries (due to fiscal policies and trade tensions) drives simultaneous demand for gold and higher bond risk premiums .
Summary Table
Factor Impact on Gold Prices Impact on Bond Yields Correlation Shift (2025)
Geopolitical Risks ↑ (Safe-haven demand) ↑ (Inflation expectations) Positive (Both rise)
Central Bank Gold Buying ↑ (Demand surge) – –
Subdued Real Rates ↑ (Lower opportunity cost) ↓ (If nominal rates lag) Inverse (Gold ↑, Yields ↓)
USD Weakness ↑ (Cheaper for non-USD) Mixed (Trade deficit risks) –
Inflation Expectations ↑ (Hedge demand) ↑ (Compensation for inflation) Positive (Both rise)
Conclusion
Gold prices in 2025 are propelled by geopolitical uncertainty, central bank accumulation, and inflation hedging, while their correlation with U.S. bond yields reflects a complex interplay of stagflation fears and shifting investor confidence. The traditional inverse relationship has been disrupted by tariffs and macroeconomic instability, creating periods where both assets rise simultaneously. For investors, gold remains a critical hedge in portfolios exposed to equity volatility or dollar depreciation, even amid elevated bond yields.
Key Levels to Watch:
Gold: Resistance at $3,700/oz (Goldman Sachs 2025 target) .
10-Year Treasury Yield: Support at 4.25%, resistance at 4.50% .
This dynamic underscores gold’s evolving role in a multipolar economic landscape where traditional asset correlations are increasingly volatile.
#GOLD#XAUUSD#DOLLAR
XAUUSD trade ideas
xauusd 1hHello dear traders
According to the analysis based on logarithmic lines,
Gold has these two scenarios when the market opens on Monday and it should 100% hit this line and range drawn on the one-hour time frame, and these scenarios will coincide with important news sooner.
Trade candles or important points with candlestick confirmations and pullbacks.
Good luck❤
GOLD VIEW TODAY..
AronnoFX will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of
reliance on the information contained within this channel including
data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals.
If you like this idea, do not forget to support with a like and follow.
Traders, if you like this idea or have your own opinion, please feel free command me.
Gold V-shaped reversal? How to solve the short order quilt🗞News side:
1.PPI has fallen for three consecutive months
2. Russia-Ukraine talks are ongoing
3. Powell says the era of long-term low interest rates is over
📈Technical aspects:
Gold rebounded from oversold in the European session, hitting a low of 3120 before pulling back and rising. After a second retracement to confirm 3130, it made a V-shaped reversal. Currently, gold is still testing the 3190-3200 resistance line. Before breaking the resistance range, gold may still usher in a second bottom detection
🎁SELL 3190-3200, SL 3210, TP 3170-3160
If you agree with this view, or have a better idea, please leave a message in the comment area. I look forward to hearing different voices.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD FXOPEN:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD FX:XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD
GOLD: Short Trading Opportunity
GOLD
- Classic bearish pattern
- Our team expects retracement
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Sell GOLD
Entry - 3330.6
Stop - 3337.3
Take - 3316.6
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
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Gold Price Forecast: Bullish Breakout Targets $3360 ResistanceThis 1-hour chart of Gold (XAU/USD) highlights a bullish breakout from a consolidation zone, supported by a strong rebound from prior support levels. After testing resistance around $3,300, the price shows renewed upward momentum, aiming for the projected target of $3,360. The green shaded areas indicate bullish impulsive moves, while the red zones highlight temporary corrections. Key support and resistance levels are clearly marked, providing traders a technical roadmap for potential price action ahead.
Key Points – Gold (XAU/USD) Analysis:
1. Bullish Momentum: Price is trending upward, gaining +1.05% recently.
2. Resistance Break: Cleared key resistance near $3,300.
3. Target: Upside target set at $3,360.
4. Support Zone: Strong demand seen around $3,160–$3,180.
5. Higher Lows: Consistent higher lows indicate strong buying pressure.
6. Previous Rejection Flipped: Past resistance now acting as support.
7. Short-Term Outlook: Bullish bias remains valid above $3,300.
XAUUSD Market OutlookMy current bias on XAUUSD remains bullish, as we are targeting the lower high (LH) around the 3,438 level. However, the market is currently in a pullback phase within the LH & LL. Price has entered an OTA level within a Daily Fair Value Gap (FVG), ranging between 3,370 and 3,333. This presents a potential opportunity for short setups as we move towards the 3,251 level.
On the 4-hour timeframe, there's a valid FVG Breaker near our Fibonacci-based OTA level, aligning closely with the 3,251 support zone. This is a key area to watch for bullish confirmations. Any long positions should ideally be considered from this zone.
Important Note:
When trading gold, patience and discipline are essential. Only act on clear, confirmed setups that align with your strategy. Quality over quantity always wins in the long run.
XAU / USD 1 Hour ChartHello traders. Although I did not take the trade, my bottom sell line from my last post was spot on. $3303 would have been a great entry. Either way, glad the analysis was right on. We have news here tomorrow in the U.S. and it will be a Friday. Let's see how the overnight sessions play out. BIg G gets a shout out. I missed the trade due to me watching Bitcoin and Ethereum charts and being thankful throughout the day. Be well and trade the trend. Let's see if resistance forms and we keep moving down or do we now range for a while as the big moves are over for the day?? Patience is key when waiting for a good set up. Thanks so much.
GOLD/USD followed by a move downward toward the green zone.Market Structure: Complex, but indicative of a potential bearish continuation after a corrective bullish move.
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Key Elements in the Chart
1. Order Blocks (OB)
Highlighted in green and red rectangles at the top.
The green OB marks a significant supply zone, which price previously respected and may revisit before continuation.
Red blocks represent mitigation or reaction zones—potential areas where smart money may re-enter short positions.
2. Break of Structure (BOS)
Clearly labeled in the lower-middle section of the chart.
Indicates a significant bearish shift in market structure.
Confirms that previous bullish trend has been invalidated or is under threat.
3. Trendline Support
A thick blue zone labeled “TRENDLINE” shows historical support that aligns with bullish order blocks.
Acts as a confluence zone where previous price reactions occurred.
4. Projected Price Path
The dotted path and gray arrow suggest a bearish forecast.
Expected retracement into supply zones (red boxes), followed by a move downward toward the green zone.
5. Fibonacci Tool & Risk Zones
Red shaded area on the top right signifies entry to stop-loss range for shorts.
Green shaded area at the bottom right likely shows take-profit target, aligning with a discount price zone.
6. Price Levels
Current price around $3,294.48 (SELL) / $3,294.56 (BUY).
Key levels and zones are actively monitored for reaction:
Resistance near $3,400–$3,420
Support zone around $3,120–$3,140
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Professional Outlook
Bias: Bearish
Setup: Waiting for price to retrace into supply zone (OB) and enter short with confirmation.
Confluence Factors:
Break of structure
Supply zones overhead
Trendline support already tested
Clear bearish order flow
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Intraday volatility,there is still chance to go long on pullback🗞News side:
1. The situation in Israel escalates
2. Initial jobless claims data
📈Technical aspects:
Influenced by recent news, gold showed a volatile rebound trend. Gold continued to rise in the early Asian session, r OANDA:XAUUSD eaching a high of around 3345. The 3290-3300 level below has absolute support in the short term. As long as it does not fall below 3290, you can go long at 3290-3300. In the 4H cycle, the Bollinger opening and the moving average diverge upwards. The upward momentum is sufficient, and it is not easy to guess the top. Pay attention to the 3310-3300 line of support below, and pay attention to the suppression of the 3340-3350 area above. If the gold price stabilizes at 3350, it is expected to further explore the resistance of 3360-3370. If the European session falls into volatility, maintain the range of high selling and low buying, and consider going long when it retreats to the support level of 3320-3310.
If you agree with this view, or have a better idea, please leave a message in the comment area. I look forward to hearing different voices.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD FXOPEN:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD FX:XAUUSD
GOLD Trade Plan – Breakout or Pullback?Price is consolidating below key resistance at 3,324.5 after a strong bullish move.
✅ Scenario 1: Breakout Buy
If price breaks and closes above 3,324.5, I will look for a continuation long toward the next resistance at 3,342 – 3,344.
✅ Scenario 2: Pullback Buy Opportunity
If price rejects 3,324.5 and pulls back to the 3,314 – 3,316 zone (EMA support), I’ll wait for bullish confirmation to enter.
❌ A breakdown below 3,304 will invalidate the current bullish structure.
Trend remains bullish. Focused on long setups only.
The latest gold operation strategyFrom a technical perspective, gold has been strong recently. Spot gold closed at $3,289.54 per ounce on Tuesday, and further broke through $3,300 in early trading on Wednesday, reaching a high of $3,304.06, a new high in more than a week. In the short term, gold prices need to break through the key resistance level of $3,370 to open up further upside space; $3,150 has formed a solid support below. If there are new variables in the geopolitical situation or economic data, gold prices may even challenge the $3,400 mark. Based on the current trend, the trading idea on Wednesday is clear: wait for the price to fall back and continue to intervene in long orders around 3,300, and maintain a bullish strategy.
Gold is recommended to go long in the 3300-3305 area, stop loss at 3292, target at 3315-3330
Gold on miraculous recoveryTechnical analysis: Downtrend sequence on DX is what pushed Gold's value Lower as well aggressively while the Intra-day semi uptrend on Gold is what Buyers were expecting and planning ahead. #3,300.80 psychological mark is the next Technical Support on Daily chart and Naturally as long as it holds, the bias is upwards towards the #3,327.80 Resistance (and vice-versa if Support fractal is to be tested). If #3,300.80 is invalidated, Sellers will extend their momentum towards the #3,275.80 - #3,285.80 Symmetrical Support belt level (many similarities with April / June Low’s).
My position: If you took my #3,252.80 benchmark break-out to the upside call you are in excellent Profit by now. I have closed all my Buying orders and especially I am satisfied with Scalp Buying orders from #3,275.80 towards #3,282.80 - #85.80 multiple times. Keep in mind that as long as #3,300.80 benchmark holds, bias is to the upside with #3,327.80 Resistance in extension. Trade accordingly.
GOLD LONG LIVE TRADE AND BREAKDOWN 11K PROFITGold price awaits acceptance above $3,300 as buyers return
Gold price is extending its upswing into the third consecutive day in Asian trading on Wednesday. Buyers look to regain the $3,300 on a sustained basis amid persistent US Dollar weakness and heightened geopolitical tensions.
GOLD (XAUUSD) Setting Up for a Bullish Breakout | Demand ZoneGold has been consolidating within a clear range, but price action is now hinting at a possible explosive breakout. After a strong rejection from the 3,090–3,124 demand zone, bulls have regained control and are pushing toward the 3,287 resistance.
We’re seeing a classic accumulation pattern, with higher lows forming around a major volume node. This is also supported by the Supply and Demand Visible Range , highlighting intense historical interest in the current range.
Key Technical Levels:
Major Demand Zone: 3,090 – 3,124 (strong institutional interest)
Short-Term Support: 3,199
Breakout Resistance: 3,287 (multiple rejection wicks seen)
Target Zone / Supply Area: 3,410
Invalidation: Below 3,090 (if price closes beneath, bullish bias ends)
Trade Setup (1H Timeframe):
Entry Zone: 3,200–3,220
Target: 3,410
Stop Loss: Below 3,090
Risk-Reward Ratio: ~2.5R
Technical Confluences:
Strong demand zone marked by LuxAlgo’s Visible Range
Price bouncing off a key structure support
MACD and RSI on lower timeframes showing early bullish divergence (not visible here but recommended to confirm)
Low volatility squeeze = potential expansion move ahead
Macro Context:
Traders anticipating upcoming USD news (interest rate decisions or inflation data). If the dollar weakens, gold could surge.
Watch for US market session on May 21–23 for possible breakout volatility.
Strategy:
I’m personally waiting for a clean break and close above 3,287 with volume to confirm entry. If that happens, the path toward 3,410 opens up fast.
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What’s your take? Are you positioning long, or do you see a fakeout brewing? Drop your analysis below!
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#XAUUSD #Gold #Forex #TradingView #SwingTrade #LuxAlgo #SupplyDemand #Breakout #PriceAction #SmartMoney #VolumeProfile #RiskReward #MarketStructure #USD #TechnicalAnalysis
Gold Price at Key Decision Zone: Breakout or Breakdown Ahead?Technical & Fundamental Analysis for XAUUSD (Gold/USD) – H4 Chart as of May 20, 2025
🧠 Technical Analysis:
Pattern Observed:
A symmetrical triangle pattern has formed, indicating a phase of consolidation.
Price is now squeezing at the apex of the triangle, suggesting an imminent breakout.
Two possible breakout paths are illustrated:
Bullish breakout targeting the $3,382 level.
Bearish breakdown targeting the $3,058 level.
Key Levels:
Resistance: $3,382.45 (marked as a potential bullish target)
Support: $3,058.08 (marked as a potential bearish target)
Current Price: ~$3,220
Price is testing the upper trendline of the triangle and is currently inside a small decision zone (highlighted in the purple rectangle).
Bias:
Wait for a confirmed breakout with strong volume and candlestick confirmation before entry.
Breakout above $3,240 could trigger a long position.
Breakdown below $3,200 could trigger a short position.
🌍 Fundamental Analysis:
Key Drivers to Watch:
US Economic Data (This Week):
FOMC minutes (upcoming)
US PMI data
Jobless claims
These could move USD and hence XAUUSD significantly.
Geopolitical Risks:
Any escalation in global tensions (e.g., Middle East, Russia-Ukraine) could increase safe haven demand for gold.
Interest Rate Outlook:
Fed is likely near or at the end of its hiking cycle.
Dovish signals = bullish for gold.
Hawkish Fed = bearish for gold.
Inflation Trends:
Sticky inflation supports gold.
Falling inflation weakens the bullish case for gold.
✅ Summary:
Direction Trigger Area Target Reason
Bullish Break above $3,240 $3,382 Triangle breakout + potential Fed pause
Bearish Break below $3,200 $3,058 Triangle breakdown + strong USD data
Gold price may fall to 3150 points todayGold price may fall to 3150 points today
Key technical points
Support level:
Short term: 3206-3210 US dollars (intraday low and psychological barrier).
Medium term: 3198-3200 US dollars (weekly trend line support).
Resistance level:
Above: 3245-3250 US dollars (high pressure area 4 hours ago).
Key breakthrough target: 3266 US dollars (upper track of daily Bollinger band).
Intraday short strategy: short at highs near 3245-3250
Target: 3220-3200 US dollars, stop loss set above 3260.
Intraday long strategy: stabilize in the 3200-3210 range, long at low prices
Target: 3245-3266 US dollars, stop loss set below 3190.
Macro strategy:
My view is based on a 4-hour cycle. Macro bearish gold prices to 3150. Try to short at high prices.
Fundamentals: The situation in the Middle East has escalated: Israel launched a large-scale ground offensive against Gaza, exacerbating the risk of regional conflict, while Trump's Middle East schedule has not clearly released a signal of easing, and the market is worried that the conflict may spread.
Russia-Ukraine negotiations are deadlocked: Russia-Ukraine negotiations failed to reach an agreement, Putin only sent a low-level delegation to attend the meeting, and Ukrainian President Zelensky expressed dissatisfaction with the progress of the negotiations. Geopolitical uncertainty supports the safe-haven properties of gold.
Moody's downgraded the US credit rating: The US sovereign credit rating was downgraded from "AAA" to "Aa1", triggering a surge in US bond yields (30-year yields exceeded 5%), and the US dollar credit premium was weakened, which indirectly benefited gold as an alternative asset.
Fed policy and economic data game
Interest rate cut expectations diverge: Although the weak US PPI data (down 0.5% month-on-month) and the slowdown in retail sales growth (0.1%) have strengthened expectations for interest rate cuts, Fed official Bostic stressed that more data is needed to support policy adjustments, and the probability of interest rate cuts this year is still low (the probability in June is 8.3%). The US dollar index rebounded to around 100.63, suppressing gold prices.
Stagflation risks loom: US GDP shrank by 0.3% month-on-month in the first quarter, but consumer spending remained resilient, and the contradiction between rising inflation expectations and slowing economic growth intensified, highlighting the anti-inflation properties of gold.
Trade policy and market sentiment
China-US tariff easing: Both sides partially canceled additional tariffs, and short-term risk appetite rebounded, but Trump plans to impose new tariffs on many countries in the next two weeks, and the market's concerns about repeated trade frictions remain.
Central bank demand for gold purchases weakened: Gold ETF holdings fell to the lowest level since March (SPDR holdings 918 tons), reflecting a cooling of short-term risk aversion, but long-term central bank gold purchases (more than 1,000 tons in 2024) and weaker US dollar credit still provide support.