XAUUSD – Weak consolidation near 3,357, eyes on 3,443 retestYesterday, gold traded within the 3,344 to 3,371 USD range and closed at 3,368.75 USD (+0.72%). Despite the slight rebound, price action remains weakly consolidative within a broad ascending channel, repeatedly rejected at the 3,443 USD resistance area — where multiple FVGs (Fair Value Gaps) remain unfilled.
On the H4 chart, price is holding above the key confluence support at 3,357 USD, which aligns with the medium-term ascending trendline. If this level holds, a technical bounce back toward 3,443 USD is likely.
However, it's worth noting that recent upward moves have lost momentum near the upper FVG zones. Traders should wait for a clear confirmation signal — particularly a strong bullish candle at the current support — before considering entry.
XAUUSD trade ideas
GOLD Bullish Breakout from Falling Channel | Retest Entry Plan 📊 Analysis Summary:
Gold (XAUUSD) has broken out of a falling channel on the 1H timeframe with strong bullish momentum. After the breakout, price retested a minor bullish order block, providing a solid confirmation for potential continuation to the upside.
🔍 Technical Confluences:
Falling channel breakout
Bullish engulfing breakout candle
Retest of minor bullish order block (acting as support)
Clear bullish Break of Structure (BOS)
📌 Trade Plan:
Entry: 3365 (OB retest zone)
Stop Loss: 3345 (20 points below OB zone)
Take Profit 1: 3399 (Key intraday resistance)
Take Profit 2: 3451 (Swing high target)
📈 Risk-Reward: Approximately 1:4
📌 Expectation:
If the order block support holds, we can expect a bullish continuation toward 3400+ and possibly 3450 in the coming sessions.
Are you ready for the next wave of gold market?Gold fell back as expected after opening high. Today's strategy arranged long orders at 3350-3352, and successfully closed the market at around 3362 with profit. The subsequent three short orders also closed the market at a profit as expected. The points were perfectly predicted, and the long and short positions were perfectly grasped during the day. The strategic ideas were disclosed in advance and all were fulfilled.
At present, the overall trend of gold is still bullish, and it is in the adjustment stage in the short term. The large range this week is 3340-3405. Although there is a rebound, the upward pressure is still not small, and the gold price may continue the wide range of long and short fluctuations. Pay attention to the 3355-3340 area below. In terms of operation, long orders are arranged according to the strength of the retreat; pay attention to 3385 in the short term above. If it can effectively break through, look at 3395-3405. The strong pressure is still at the 3405 line. If it does not break, it will still fall under pressure. On the contrary, if it stabilizes, it is expected to hit last week's high.
Operation suggestion: When gold falls back to around 3355-3340, long orders can be arranged in batches, with the target at 3370-3380. Short orders will be adjusted according to the real-time market, please pay attention to the bottom 🌐 notification for specific points.
Opportunities only come to those who ambush in advanceAfter Trump announced that Israel and Iran had reached a comprehensive ceasefire agreement, the market's risk aversion sentiment cooled significantly, and the price of gold once plummeted by more than $30. Although the stability of the ceasefire agreement is in doubt, the rebound in risk appetite dominates the market trend, with stock markets rebounding, oil prices falling, and demand for safe-haven assets falling. Powell will deliver a semi-annual monetary policy testimony, and the market is paying attention to his statement on the timing of the July rate cut. At present, the internal differences of the Federal Reserve on interest rate cuts have intensified. If Powell sends a signal that the number of interest rate cuts this year is limited, it may strengthen the rebound of the US dollar and suppress gold prices; on the contrary, if the stance is dovish, it may ease the downward pressure on gold prices. In the short term, the fading of geopolitical risks and the warming of risk appetite are the main reasons for the decline in gold prices, but the weakening of the US dollar and the potential dovish tendency of the Federal Reserve still provide support. In the medium and long term, global economic uncertainty, geopolitical risks and expectations of the Federal Reserve's loose policy still constitute structural support for gold.
From a technical perspective, the gold daily moving average system is in an intertwined state, and the forces of bulls and bears are relatively balanced. The current short-term resistance above is around 3320-3333, which is an important psychological level. If an effective breakthrough is achieved or the upside space is opened, the support below will focus on the 3285-3295 line, which is the lower edge of the May oscillation platform. If it falls below, the pressure of the correction may increase. The loss of the middle track in the 4-hour chart further confirms the short-term weak structure and provides technical support for the downward trend. It is recommended to go long on the pullback near 3285-3295. At present, gold continues to fall in line with the trend.
Gold bottomed out and rebounded, continue to go longAffected by the situation in the Middle East, gold opened high and fell again on Monday, just like last Monday. At present, it has fallen back to the 3352-3355 line and fluctuated. Although it is under short-term pressure, the bull channel has not been broken, and the retracement is still a long opportunity. The support below is 3340-3345, and the short-term resistance is 3380-3385. It is only a matter of time before it breaks through. The key suppression is still in the 3400-3415 area. In terms of strategy, continue to arrange long orders around the retracement, be cautious in chasing orders in the middle oscillation zone, and wait patiently for key position signals. The specific points are subject to the bottom 🌐 notification.
Gold suggestion: arrange long orders around 3340-3350, and the target is 3370-3380.
Gold Ready to Shine Again? Watch This Battle Zone Closely!Gold is consolidating above the 50% retracement (3372) after defending key structure at 3368–3378. Bullish momentum is building as Silver continues to lead, and the US Dollar (DXY) weakens post-FOMC. If buyers step in here, we could see a clean breakout toward 3415–3450 and beyond. But if 3368 breaks, the bull case is temporarily invalidated.
🧭 Technical Highlights:
✅ Support Zone: 3368–3378 (Fibonacci + bullish order block)
✅ Resistance Targets: 3395, 3415.84, 3451.84, 3470+
🔄 Silver Divergence: XAGUSD broke higher → leading XAU bullishly
🔼 Bias: Bullish (as long as 3368 holds)
🌐 Fundamental Drivers:
🏦 Fed dot plot turns dovish – Only 1–2 cuts, but no hikes planned; supports gold upside.
⚔️ Middle East tensions rising – Iran vs. Israel/US rhetoric keeps risk premium high.
📉 DXY weakens after Powell avoided hawkish tone; real yields remain capped.
💬 Silver outperforming on safe-haven + industrial hedge flows.
💡 Trading Plan Summary:
Buy Zone: 3372–3380
TP Zones: 3395, 3415, 3450+
Invalidation: Close below 3368
Confirmation: Break and close above 3395 with volume = signal to scale in
🔔 Keep an eye on:
US Jobless Claims, SNB & BoE Decisions
DXY 98.70 key level
Silver reaction near 36.70–37.20
Bearish Technicals prevailedTechnical analysis: Despite the strong Bearish candle sequence on the DX (few percents down), Gold remains on losses however above my Support for the session as the U.S. session approaching and geo-political tensions resurfacing. However, #3,395.80 is new Resistance zone made by the Hourly 4 candlestick configuration. Gold is pulling back again after it failed to break above it’s Resistance variance (#3,388.80 - #3,395.80 - #3,402.80) on the Hourly 4 chart, while #3,352.80 benchmark configuration is protecting the eminent downtrend. This sequence is similar to the September #24 - #28 pattern when a Double Bottom was made before the strong rebound. Also current Gold's impulse and rejection was Highly correlated with the side Swings on the Bond Yields market, happening on Hourly basis. As discussed, Gold is Trading within Descending Channel and that fractal is Buying back every dip and postponing the downtrend and pointing me that Gold should be timed for consolidation session (regarding Short-term). I am looking to complete a full oscillation towards #3,327.80 if #3,342.80 - #3,352.80 gives away, in the same time my main point of interests. I am expecting recovery however within #1 - #3 sessions if DX extend the Selling sequence and remain with a Daily chart proportions decline. My practical suggestion would be to wait for a break-out and then make a move, since at the moment - there is a clash between Bearish Technicals on Gold and Fundamental war escalation uncertainty which could make Investors park their capital from Gold into more riskier assets - and vice versa. Consequently the current consolidation and another Bearish wave should come as no Technical surprise, only if Fundamentals do not arise Buyers of the market.
My position: As my Profit quota for the week / Month is already acquired, I will not take any more orders for today's session. I lean of course more to Bearish side Intra-day, however even if I engage, will be Scalp order rather than positioning myself for #10 - #20 point move.
The golden storm is coming again, are you ready?Gold rebounded after falling back to 3333 in the first wave, and then rebounded to 3357 in the second wave before falling again, breaking through the previous low of 3333 and accelerating down to 3316. Currently, the short-term trend has stabilized in the 3316 area, which is also the support level for multiple rebounds in the previous period. After continuing to fall today, it has not broken through. We have arranged long orders in the 3316-3317 area in advance and have taken profits near 3331. Gold rebounded after stepping back again. Our long order plan is still in position. If the subsequent rebound breaks through the 3333 line, it is expected to further rise to the 3340-3348 area. We will try to short in this area.
In the short-term structure, the upper resistance focuses on the 3340-3348 area, and the lower support focuses on the 3310-3315 area. 3300-3305 is the watershed between the strength of long and short positions in the short term. The daily level is still under pressure as a whole, and the main idea of high altitude continues.
Gold operation strategy: short gold when it rebounds to around 3340-3348, target the 3330-3320 range.
Gold Cooling After Spike – $3375 Key Level to WatchBy analyzing the gold chart on the 4-hour timeframe, we can see that after surging to $3450 amid the Iran–Israel conflict, gold faced a pullback following a liquidity sweep above that level.
Currently, gold is trading around $3392, and after a potential correction down to $3375, I expect to see further upside movement.
⚠️ Stay cautious — gold remains highly volatile and sudden moves are likely!
Gold Outlook: Bullish Bias Builds🧠 Combined Market Intelligence Report
Focus Asset: XAU/USD (Gold/USD)
Current Price: $3,381.65
🌍 Macro Overview: Key Weekly Market Themes
🏦 Central Bank Policy Divergence
Federal Reserve: Held rates steady; Powell struck a more cautious tone. Seven members now forecast no cuts in 2025. Rate cut probability softened early in the week, then revived after Fed Governor Waller hinted at a possible July cut.
Swiss National Bank (SNB): Cut rates to 0.00%, surprising markets and signaling potential for negative rates if needed.
Bank of Japan (BOJ): Maintained rates at 0.50%, slowed bond tapering, signaled caution amid trade and inflation uncertainty.
ECB & BOE: Mostly neutral/dovish tones. ECB may cut in 6 months; BOE remained split.
🧩 Implication: Diverging monetary paths and policy uncertainty support demand for neutral reserve assets like gold.
⚔️ Geopolitical Risk: Israel-Iran Conflict
Markets opened bullish on gold due to de-escalation signals from Iran, but risk-off sentiment returned midweek after:
Trump’s “unconditional surrender” demand
Iran’s “irreparable damage” threat
Reports of possible U.S. strikes
By Friday, Trump hit “pause” for 2 weeks of diplomacy.
🧩 Implication: Geopolitical tension is unresolved. Gold remains a top safe-haven hedge as military conflict risk persists.
📉 Macro Data Weakness
U.S. Retail Sales: -0.9% (vs. -0.4% expected)
U.S. Industrial Production: -0.2%
Philly Fed Manufacturing: -4.0
UK Retail Sales: -2.7% m/m
Eurozone Wage Growth: 3.4% y/y (missed expectations)
Australia Jobs: -2.5k (vs. +15k expected)
🧩 Implication: Global slowdown signals strengthen gold’s appeal as a defensive and inflation-hedging asset.
📊 Technical Outlook for XAU/USD (Gold)
🔹 Current Price: $3,381.65
🔸 Key Indicators (1D)
Indicator Value Signal
RSI 55.65 Slightly bullish (>50)
Stochastic %K / %D 51.23 / 53.33 Neutral zone
Williams %R -44.18 Mid-range, no strong signal
Bollinger Mid-Band 3,381.55 Price = BB midline (balance point)
Keltner Mid-Channel 3,381.94 Matching price (consolidation)
📍 Key Price Levels
Support: $3,360 → $3,345
Resistance: $3,410 → $3,430
Breakout Point: Close above $3,410 confirms upside momentum
Breakdown Point: Close below $3,360 confirms renewed selling pressure
📈 Forecast for Gold (XAU/USD) – Next 1–5 Days
🔮 Fundamental Bias: 🔼 Mildly Bullish
Unresolved geopolitical tension = sustained safe-haven flows
Global economic softness = pressure on real yields
Mixed Fed tone, SNB cut = supportive macro backdrop for gold
📉 Technical Bias: 🔁 Neutral to Bullish
RSI above 50, price above major midlines = buyers still in control
Consolidation at key pivot level ($3,381) suggests accumulation, not exhaustion
If price breaks above $3,410 and sustains, rally toward $3,430–3,460 is likely
If price breaks below $3,360, watch for a retest of $3,345–3,330 support zone
🎯 Final XAU/USD Forecast Summary
Time Frame Direction Price Targets Confidence Risk Catalyst
1–2 Days 🔁 Sideways-to-Bullish $3,390 → $3,410 Moderate News on Fed, Trump-Iran
3–5 Days 🔼 Bullish $3,430 → $3,460 High Breakout + geopolitics
Bearish Case 🔽 If < $3,360 $3,345 → $3,330 Moderate Peace deal + strong USD
⚠️ Trade Considerations
If bullish breakout (> $3,410) → potential swing trade toward $3,460
If failed breakout (< $3,360) → reversion trade toward $3,330
Avoid aggressive positions until volatility picks up, as current setup is range-bound with breakout potential.
The Support and Resistance outlined in green and red are the respective support/resistance for this pair currently for 1M-1Y timeframes!
No Nonsense. Just Really Good Market Insights. Leave a Boost
TradeWithTheTrend3344
GOLD ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone,
Great start to the week with our chart idea playing out to perfection once again!!
We started with our Bullish target at 3440 hit followed with no ema5 cross and lock confirming the perfect rejection, showcasing the accuracy of our levels. This rejection went onto hitting our Bearish target, followed with ema5 cross and lock opening 3393, which was also hit perfectly.
We will now look for ema5 lock below 3393 to open the swing range or failure to lock below will see the upper Goldturns tested again.
We will see levels tested side by side until one of the weighted levels break and lock to confirm direction for the next range.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 20 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
The swing range give bigger bounces then our weighted levels that's the difference between weighted levels and swing ranges.
BULLISH TARGET
3440 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3340 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGETS
3463
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3463 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3483
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3483 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3508
BEARISH TARGETS
3418 -DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3418 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
3393 DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3393 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
3372
3353
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3353 WILL OPEN THE SECONDARY SWING RANGE
3330
3306
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
THE KOG REPORT - UpdateEnd of day update from us here at KOG:
Although many were anticipating a strong move upside on the open, we stuck to our guns and the algo which gave us the bias level as bearish below. Although we wanted a little bit higher, this worked well today with nearly all our bearish below target being completed again in one day apart from the remaining 3380.
For this reason, we'll stick with the plan for now with resistance now being the 3406 level which if held can force us down further into the level given before a potential RIP. With FOMC around the corner, we can expect some choppy and ranging price action tomorrow so tread carefully on the markets if you're less experienced.
KOG’s bias of the week:
Bearish below 3465 with targets below 3425✅, 3420✅, 3410✅ and 3406✅
Bullish on break of 3465 with targets above 3477, 3485, 3492, 3495 and 3503
Red Boxes:
Break above 3435 for 3443, 3448, 3465 and 3476 in extension of the move
Break below 3420 for 3410✅, 3406✅, 3397✅, 3385✅ and 3380 in extension of the move
As always, trade safe.
KOG
UPDATE 26th June 2025 Consolidation Phase Consolidation Phase still running.
It have a potential to retest a lower support.
During this consolidation period, we will continue to monitor any fluctuations ( war, geopolitic, US economic, etc ) that will affect the movement of gold prices.
So becareful at support level / key level.
Goodluck !
If you agree...click Boost
Gold Drops Sharply – Breaks Below the $3,300 Support📊 Market Overview:
Gold has plunged to $3,290/oz, breaking the key psychological level of $3,300 as the US dollar strengthened and Treasury yields ticked higher. Market sentiment has turned defensive ahead of Friday’s US PCE inflation data, with expectations that the Fed may maintain its hawkish stance for longer.
📉 Technical Analysis:
• Key Resistance: $3,310 – $3,325
• Nearest Support: $3,285 – $3,272
• EMA09: Price is currently below the 9-period EMA, confirming short-term bearish momentum.
• Candlestick / Volume / Momentum:
o H1/H4 charts show a series of long bearish candles, with rising volume → strong selling signal.
o RSI is approaching oversold levels (~28), MACD remains in a widening bearish divergence → downward pressure is still dominant.
📌 Outlook:
Gold is in a clear downtrend and may extend its decline toward $3,285 – $3,272 unless a reversal is triggered by weaker-than-expected PCE data or renewed geopolitical tensions. In the near term, any technical rebound is likely to offer sell opportunities rather than a trend reversal.
💡 Suggested Trade Setup:
🔻 SELL XAU/USD
• Entry: $3,300 – $3,305 (on technical retracement)
• 🎯 TP: $3,285 – $3,272
• 🛑 SL: $3,315
🔺 BUY XAU/USD (high risk)
• Entry: $3,272 – $3,277 (short-term bottom catching)
• 🎯 TP: $3,295 – $3,305
• 🛑 SL: $3,262
Gold Outlook–24 June: Can Geopolitical Tensions Shift the Trend?📊 MACRO INSIGHTS:
🔸 Iran–Israel Ceasefire Update: Though both sides have referenced a ceasefire agreement, real conditions on the ground tell a different story. Iran has expressed conditional agreement, demanding Israel to halt operations first. However, Israeli forces claim missile attacks from Iran are still ongoing...
🔸 Escalation Despite Diplomatic Moves: Despite former President Trump’s announcement of a peace deal, Iran responded with renewed missile activity — intensifying market uncertainty...
🔸 Currency Sentiment: Asian currencies are mostly strengthening amid conflicting signals from the Middle East, reflecting cautious optimism across emerging markets...
📉 GOLD PRICE TECHNICAL STRUCTURE:
🔸 Gold experienced a significant drop during the early Asian session, forming a visible price gap near the 334x region...
🔸 On the H1 timeframe, a potential correction is underway. Price may retest 3325 or dip as low as 3287 before resuming bullish momentum. If support at 3290 holds or breaks, it could become a key signal for trend confirmation going forward...
🔐 KEY ZONES TO MONITOR:
🟥 Resistance Areas: 3366 – 3394 – 3409 – 3450
🟩 Support Levels: 3333 – 3325 – 3316 – 3293
🎯 POTENTIAL TRADE SETUPS (Price Action Bias):
🟢 Bullish Opportunity #1
📍Entry: 3286–3288
🎯Targets: 3305 → 3322 → 3345
🛑Stop Loss: 3282
🟢 Bullish Opportunity #2
📍Entry: 3296–3294
🎯Targets: 3305 → 3322 → 3345
🛑Stop Loss: 3292
🔴 Bearish Setup #1
📍Entry: 3383–3385
🎯Targets: 3375 → 3362 → 3340
🛑Stop Loss: 3389
📌 Heads-up: Keep an eye on today’s Fed commentary and any new political statements – both could bring unexpected volatility to gold prices...
Potential bearish drop off major support?The Gold (XAU/USD0 has broken out of the pivot which acts as an overlap support and could drop to the 1st support which has been identified as an overlap support.
Pivot: 3,374.04
1st Support: 3,341.44
1st Resistance: 3,398.38
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Gold- Back to 3300 again?After Monday’s correction into the 3380 support zone, Gold entered a consolidation phase. Bulls attempted to push higher but failed to reclaim the 3400 resistance area.
❓ Is this just the beginning of a deeper leg down?
🔻 Why further downside is likely:
• Price broke decisively below the 3380 horizontal support just hours ago
• The market is now trading around 3365, confirming bearish momentum
• 3400 remains unbroken on the daily chart – keeping the downward pressure
📌 Trading plan:
As long as we don’t see a daily close above 3400, I’m selling rallies. A test of the 3300 level is very likely if current pressure continues.
Disclosure: I am part of TradeNation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
Gold Extends Decline Amid Easing Safe-Haven DemandGold continues its downward trajectory as safe-haven sentiment weakens. Geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel appear to be easing following a ceasefire agreement, reducing the perceived need for defensive assets such as gold.
At the same time, the market is reassessing its expectations regarding U.S. monetary policy. With the Federal Reserve unlikely to cut interest rates in the near term—and concerns about inflation resurfacing due to potential tax policy changes under former President Donald Trump—gold is facing a dual source of short-term pressure.
Investor sentiment is currently shifting toward riskier assets, as capital flows increasingly favor equities over gold. This risk-on environment has further eroded demand for traditional safe havens.
From a technical perspective, gold failed to break above the $3,350 level, signaling waning bullish momentum. This may indicate the onset of a short-term corrective phase.
On the political front, recent remarks by Donald Trump—including the possibility of a long-term diplomatic solution with Iran and discussions around replacing Fed Chair Jerome Powell—have introduced additional volatility into global financial markets.
Furthermore, according to market data I have reviewed, gold sales in the second quarter have shown signs of slowing. Buyers are becoming more cautious amid elevated price levels, while many investors are choosing to take profits, contributing to an increasingly two-sided market dynamic.
Despite this, I maintain a positive medium- to long-term outlook for gold. The U.S. dollar is currently at its weakest point in three and a half years, offering significant support. Notably, central banks managing over $5 trillion in assets are planning to increase their gold reserves within the next one to two years—a strong structural driver for gold’s long-term growth.
In summary, I believe gold is currently experiencing short-term corrective pressure due to a combination of geopolitical developments, interest rate expectations, and shifting investor sentiment. However, its long-term outlook remains solid, supported by a weaker dollar, global macroeconomic risks, and continued central bank accumulation.
GOLD 15M STILL LOOK WEAK AND READY FOR CORRECTION CONTINUATIONIm looking to sell this on 15m time frame
I wait for 1 of this scenarios to play out before i go in
First scenarios
-Possible RE-TEST 3341.50 AREA I have pending SELL here with SL 3350.50
Second scenarios
-Break of 3326.50 I will go in on BREAK OUT with SL 3335.50
I will prefer the first scenarios but let see what Market gave us today
Thanks and Holaaa
Happy Wednesday
Start going long on goldAlthough gold is under pressure and weak at present, gold still rebounded near 3295 under the influence of yesterday's major negative news, proving that there is still a large amount of buying funds below, limiting the retracement space of gold; and from 3295 to 3335, there is still a rebound space of $40, proving that gold is not extremely weak. Moreover, there is a gap left above, and there is a technical need to rebound to fill the gap;
In addition, yesterday gold fell sharply due to news, and there should be many longs trapped in the market. If gold is relatively stable, there may be self-rescue behavior of the trapped longs, so gold longs still have the opportunity to rebound to 3340-3350. At present, the main focus is on the short-term support area of 3315-3305, and we can moderately consider going long on gold in this area.