XAUUSD , Bullish Setup , R:R 17Hello friends
I am back after a long time and I want to share the results of my efforts of several years with you.
Gold is starting a 5th wave of bullishness and yesterday it gave us the necessary confirmations by rejecting the previous ceiling. I have identified the best buying position for you now. With a reward to risk 17
Take advantage of this opportunity.
If you are interested in Elliott waves or work in this field at a professional level, contact me and share your analysis with me.
I hope we will all be profitable together.
XAUUSD trade ideas
POST-CPI CAPTION (TRADINGVIEW)🧩 POST-CPI CAPTION (TRADINGVIEW)
XAU/USD | 15min | Post-CPI Reaction Trade
Headline CPI came in slightly hot (+2.7% YoY), but core softened (+0.2% MoM). Expecting USD strength → bearish gold. Watching $3,371–3,380 for a short entry on CHoCH + volume rejection. Targets $3,350 → $3,337. Soft retrace + clean structure flip may open longs back to $3,400, but only on clear demand reaction.
#SMC #XAUUSD #CPI #LiquiditySweep #OrderFlow #SmartMoney
Gold price fluctuated upward today: target 3400 pointsGold price fluctuated upward today: target 3400 points
Fundamentals:
CPI data: US CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month in June (the largest increase since January), and the core CPI annual rate rose to 2.9%, which strengthened the market's cooling of the Fed's expectations for rate cuts (the probability of a rate cut in September fell to 53%).
US dollar index: rose to 98.70 (a three-week high), suppressing the attractiveness of gold.
Trump's tariff policy: plans to impose tariffs of "slightly above 10%" on several small countries, and the EU plans to impose retaliatory tariffs of US$84.1 billion on US goods, supporting the safe-haven demand for gold.
Technical aspects:
(1) Short-term trend (4-hour line)
Support level: 3320, if it falls below, it will fall to 3300 or even 3222.
Resistance level: 3350 (short-term pressure level), after breaking through, it is expected to challenge 3375-3400.
MACD and RSI: Showing a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, tending to fluctuate upward in the short term.
(2) Medium- and long-term trends (weekly chart)
The rising channel remains intact, the Bollinger Band opening widens, and the medium-term target is $3,400-3,700.
Today's focus
US June PPI data (if it exceeds expectations, it may further suppress expectations of interest rate cuts).
Speech by Fed officials (pay attention to policy direction).
Progress of the trade war (if the tariff conflict escalates, gold may receive safe-haven buying).
Summary and operational suggestions
Short-term:
Gold prices fluctuate in the 3300-3400 range, pay attention to the breakthrough of the 3320 support level and the 3350 resistance level.
Strategy:
Buy on dips (try to go long with a light position near 3330 points, with a stop loss below 3320 points).
Go long after breaking through 3350 (target 3375-3400).
If it falls below 3320, it may further correct back to the 3300-3250 area.
Gold is accelerating downward, pay attention to important supporThe U.S. inflation data for June was released overnight. The actual data showed that U.S. inflation rebounded slightly in June, but it did not exceed expectations. After the data was released, Trump made a speech at Truth A post on Social said that given the low consumer prices, the Fed should lower interest rates. He has been calling for a rate cut for some time, so the market still has some uncertainty about the timing of the Fed's subsequent rate cuts, but the probability is in September. The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged this month is high. The US dollar index is also supported and continues to rebound. Gold fluctuated higher from around 3344 in the morning of the previous trading day. During the European session, it refreshed the intraday high and touched the 3366 line under pressure and maintained repeated narrow consolidation. After the data was released, it first rebounded quickly to the 3360 line and then quickly fell back. After two repetitions, it finally moved downward. In the evening, it fell below the intraday low and once touched around 3320 and then stabilized and rebounded. The daily line closed with a middle shadow. Technically, the continuation of the previous convergence triangle after the break is currently returning to the downward channel again.
Pay attention to the pressure of 3342/44 during the day, and pay attention to the support near 3308 below. If it falls below 3308 again, it will return to the downward channel.
XAUUSD Expecting bullish Movement Gold is showing potential for a bullish reversal from the key support zone between 3390 to 3395. Price has formed a base in this range, and if it holds, we may see an upside breakout above the descending trendline
Buy Zone: 3390 – 3395
First Target: 3355.50
Second Target: 3380.50
A successful breakout and hold above the trendline resistance could trigger a move toward our short-term targets. Watch for bullish confirmation before entering. Manage risk accordingly
7/16: Will Gold Reclaim 3350 or Fall to 3250?During today’s session, gold briefly broke through the 3352–3358 resistance zone, but due to news-driven pressure during the pullback, bullish momentum weakened, and the price retreated to the MA60 support level on the daily chart.
Given the significant retracement, there is a possibility that a short-term bottom may form during the upcoming Asian session, potentially leading to a retest of the 3337-3343/3352-3358 resistance area:
If the price breaks above this zone and holds above it after a pullback, the bullish trend could resume;
However, if it fails to break through or is rejected again, caution is warranted, as this could signal a larger-scale downtrend on the weekly chart, possibly targeting the 3250 area.
XAUUSD H1 ANALYSISGold price sticks to modest intraday gains around the $3,360 region heading into the European session and remains close to a three-week high touched the previous day. The US Dollar eases from a multi-week top amid some repositioning trade ahead of the crucial US consumer inflation figures, which is seen as a key factor acting as a tailwind for the commodity.
GOLD: Target Is Up! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse GOLD together☺️
The in-trend continuation seems likely as the current long-term trend appears to be strong, and price is holding above a key level of 3,363.43 So a bullish continuation seems plausible, targeting the next high. We should enter on confirmation, and place a stop-loss beyond the recent swing level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
XAU/USD(20250715) Today's AnalysisMarket news:
Sources said that after Trump's latest trade tax threat, the European Central Bank will discuss a more negative scenario next week than expected in June. The ECB is still expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its meeting on July 24. Discussions on rate cuts are still postponed to September.
Technical analysis:
Today's buying and selling boundaries:
3353.05
Support and resistance levels:
3386.70
3374.12
3365.96
3340.13
3331.97
3319.40
Trading strategy:
If it breaks through 3353.05, consider buying in, the first target price is 3365.96
If it breaks through 3340.13, consider selling in, the first target price is 3331.97
XAU / USD 1 Hour ChartHello traders. Here is my Happy Monday scalp trade thoughts. Area of interest is marked. Let's see if we can catch a few pips if the times all align. Big G gets my thanks. Be well and trade the trend. I will post / update if I take a trade. It's only Monday so I am in no hurry to force or rush a trade. Thank so much.
Gold prices are under pressure at $3,380 todayGold prices are under pressure at $3,380 today
Safe-haven demand rises
Trump announced that he will impose a 30% tariff on EU and Mexican goods from August 1, and a 20% to 50% tariff on Canada, Japan, Brazil and other countries. The market is worried about the escalation of the trade war, pushing up gold prices.
Gold prices soared to $3,374 in the Asian session today (the highest since June 23).
Fed policy expectations
The minutes of the June FOMC meeting showed that there were differences within the Fed on the issue of interest rate cuts, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in July was 93.3%. Market expectations for interest rate cuts have cooled, limiting the rise in gold prices.
US dollar trend
Last Friday, the US dollar index closed up 0.3% at 97.85, approaching the 98 mark, which puts pressure on gold in the short term.
3. Technical analysis
Short-term trend
Support: $3,340-3,350 (21-day moving average), $3,326 (50-day moving average).
Resistance level: $3377 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement level), $3400 (psychological barrier).
MACD golden cross formed, indicating that there is still room for growth.
Key observation points
If the gold price stands above $3377, it may challenge $3400;
If it falls below $3340, it may test the support level of $3320-3300.
Comprehensive analysis from the current sentiment:
Day trading ideas: Try to go long at a low price, and treat it with a volatile long-term idea. Today's gold price is likely to break through 3380, and today's target is likely to be 3400+
Fourth, pay attention to the market outlook
Trump issued a policy statement on Russia today (may involve new sanctions).
US June CPI data (released on Tuesday, affecting the Fed's policy expectations).
Subsequent development of the trade war (the EU and Mexico may take countermeasures).
Xausd techinical analysis.This chart is for Gold Spot vs. the U.S. Dollar (XAU/USD) on the 1-hour timeframe, and it illustrates several smart money concepts. Here's a breakdown of the key components and what they suggest:
Key Elements on the Chart:
1. BOS (Break of Structure):
Marked in orange and red text.
A BOS indicates a shift in market structure. The first BOS (left side) shows a bullish shift, while the BOS at the top may signal a potential bearish shift.
2. OB (Order Block):
Highlighted with purple boxes and labeled "OB".
These are institutional supply/demand zones where price is likely to react.
The most recent OB at the top appears to be a supply zone, as price touches it and drops afterward.
3. FVG (Fair Value Gap):
A small orange box labeled "FVG".
This is an imbalance area where price moved too quickly, potentially getting filled later. It's a sign of inefficiency in price action.
4. Support Zone:
Marked in yellow and purple at the bottom of the chart.
This is a demand zone where price previously reversed, and it may act as a magnet for future price action if bearish pressure continues.
5. Bearish Arrow (Projection):
A red arrow suggesting price may drop from the OB zone
My B.B.C.This Big Beautiful Chart or B.B.C.™ shows possible extensions for this wave, when extending into all time highs there's not a lot to go on, but the 1.618 fib extension is my go-to. Paired with RSI and trend channels you can start to get an idea of where resistance and pullbacks may be.
RSI has bearish divergence so it appears we are losing investor confidence at this price level, upper movement to the next level will require some powerful news like rate cuts or more tariffs. Canada and Mexico produce 330 tonnes of gold annually while the USA produces 160 so these tariffs could very well lift the price even higher like they did with copper
GOLD Remains BullishPrice made a HH at 3365, confirming structure shift back to bullish. The last HL is at 3305, making it the protected level for bulls.
H4 OB: 3305–3322 (origin of the recent impulsive leg — ideal pullback zone)
Supply Zone: 3432–3445 (next unmitigated supply target)
Bullish if price pulls into demand zone and holds, expect continuation to 3432+
H1 OB: 3325– 3335 (potential re-entry zone)
Watch for reaction on pull back
M15 Micro bullish flow is intact; price is consolidating around 3360
Breakout Buy: M15 BOS above 3365 with retest = entry trigger
🟢Entry Zone: 3325– 3335
SL: Below 3305
TP1: 3365
TP2: 3432
TP3: 3445
Gold trend analysisGold trend analysis: Tariff war adds fuel to the fire, 3400 becomes the life and death line for bulls and bears!
🔥 New fundamental variables: Trump's tariff stick triggers risk aversion
Trump suddenly announced a 30% tariff on the EU and Mexico (effective on August 1), and the risk of a global trade war soared
The EU fought back strongly, Mexico vowed to defend its sovereignty, and the market worried about repeating the 2018 "trade war → supply chain chaos → inflation rebound" script
Gold benefits from double benefits: safe-haven attributes + anti-inflation attributes are strengthened at the same time, but be wary of the "America First" policy's suppression of the US dollar
📌 Key technical form: 3250-3400 large box has not yet been broken
Bull market bottom line: Below 3300 is the institutional cost area, and the Fed's interest rate cut expectations support the bottom
Bear market fortress: 3400 gathers a large number of option obstacles, and a strong catalyst is needed to break through (such as a comprehensive escalation of the trade war) (war)
Current position: 3365 points are at the upper edge of the box, and the long-short decisive battle is imminent
⚠️ Monday Operation Reminder
Beware of "buy expectations and sell facts": the market has partially digested the tariff risk, beware of the decline after the good news is realized
Data bomb: If the US CPI exceeds expectations on Wednesday, it may weaken the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the gold price may be under pressure
🎯 Two scenarios
Trade war escalation scenario (probability 40%)
EU/Mexico counterattack → risk assets plummet → gold price hits 3400 points
Strategy: Break through 3385 points to chase more, target 3420-3450 points
Thunderstorm but smaller scale scenario (probability 60%)
Both sides compromise at the last minute → risk aversion subsides → gold price falls back to 3320 points
Strategy: Break through 3340 points and short, target 3300-3280
💡 Ultimate suggestion
Spot investors: Buy in batches in the 3250-3300 range, ignoring short-term fluctuations.
Leveraged traders: Strictly abide by the principle of "breakthrough chasing up/breakthrough selling", and stop loss must be set!
Attention everyone: Volatility will increase this week, and reducing positions by half is the rule of survival.
(Remember: gold performs well in turbulent times, but Trump's tweets are more dangerous than the Fed!)💣