Today's gold price: short again after falling below 3300Today's gold price: short again after falling below 3300
This will be my last participation in the market this week and my last belief.
Sell: 3295-3300
Stop loss: 3325
Target: 3250-3220-3200
The repeated fluctuations in the past two days are really heartbreaking. Even as a professional trader, I feel exhausted.
This week is another dull week. Trump's changes in instructions caught people off guard.
But trading is like this, always back and forth, and many times, we can't fully control it, but are controlled by it.
In order to seize as many time periods as possible that can control the fluctuations in gold prices, I often maintain a rhythm, trade only a few signals a day, and only trade in specific time periods that I can understand.
And strictly control stop loss and take profit, and use one month's data to calculate all my profits and losses.
After talking about mentality, let's analyze the price of gold:
Fundamental core:
Policy repetition and risk aversion
The US federal court ruled to suspend Trump's tariff policy, but the federal appeals court subsequently agreed to suspend the implementation of the ruling. Policy uncertainty leads to fluctuations in market risk aversion demand.
The White House said it would explore other legal ways to levy taxes, which exacerbated expectations of policy chaos and strengthened the attributes of gold as a safe-haven hedge tool.
Economic data and Fed policy
Weak employment data: As of the week ending May 24, the number of first-time unemployment claims in the United States surged by 14,000 to 240,000 (expected to be 230,000), suggesting a weak labor market and the probability of a rate cut in September rose to 84.4%.
Minutes of the Fed meeting: Keep interest rates unchanged, but acknowledge the risk of stagflation with "inflation and unemployment coexisting", and policy differences have intensified.
Geopolitical risks and long-term support
The situation in the Middle East (Israel may attack Iran's nuclear facilities) and the continued conflict between Russia and Ukraine have limited the decline in gold prices due to geopolitical premiums.
Central banks around the world have strong demand for gold purchases: China's gold imports in April hit an 11-month high. In 2024, global central banks will purchase more than 1,000 tons of gold, which will support gold prices in the long term.
2. Key technical points
Support level:
Short-term: 3280-3290 (4-hour Bollinger band middle track + psychological barrier).
Medium-term: 3250 (50-day moving average, if it falls below, it may fall to 3217).
Resistance level:
Short-term: 3335-3340 (previous high pressure area).
Breakthrough target: 3350 (opening the channel to 3400).
Key events:
US core PCE data for April: If inflation is lower than expected (previous value 2.8%), expectations of interest rate cuts will increase, which is good for gold; if it exceeds expectations, gold prices may fall below 3250 points.
Sudden change in geopolitical situation: Israel's attack on Iran's nuclear facilities may cause the gold price to surge 5% in a single day, breaking through 3,400 points.
