GOLD / XAUUSD TodayGOLD / XAUUSD Today change trend to long setup.
My first is on chart.
I remember today is Friday
XAUUSD trade ideas
US tariff deadline, GOLD expected to fluctuate very stronglyInvestors will be keeping an eye on tariff news from Washington this week as the temporary suspension of punitive import duties is set to expire. If trade tensions do not escalate further after Wednesday’s deadline, that could be good for the market, while downside risks are also a negative for OANDA:XAUUSD in particular.
News Around US Tariffs
To avoid higher tariffs, negotiators from more than a dozen major US trading partners are racing against time to negotiate with the Trump administration, trying to reach a deal before July 9. Trump and his team have continued to apply pressure in recent days.
Trump announced a deal with Vietnam to lower the 20% tariffs he had promised on many Vietnamese exports, while talks with Japan, the United States’ most important ally in Asia and sixth-largest trading partner, appeared to be stalled, even as Washington hinted it was close to a deal with India.
In data
Nonfarm payrolls data released Thursday showed the U.S. added 147,000 jobs in June, beating market expectations, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%.
Despite the slowdown in private-sector hiring, the overall strong report prompted markets to lower expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in July.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate cut has dropped sharply from 24% to 4.7%. Fed Chairman Powell reiterated that the central bank will not ease its stance until there are more signs of cooling in employment and inflation.
Personal Comments
The market is following a number of factors:
On the one hand, there is a countdown to Trump's "final blow" on tariffs, and on the other hand, the non-farm data has poured cold water once again. As the Fed's stance fluctuates, the US Dollar faces a tug-of-war between long and short positions, while gold continues to stabilize technically or has had significant price increases. July 9 of this month could be a key moment to really test the sustainability of gold in this recovery.
Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
Gold has recovered significantly over the past week, since finding support from the $3,250 area, but the temporary recovery is still limited by the EMA21 followed by the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level.
However, sustained price action above the $3,300 raw price point should be viewed as a positive signal as it helps gold stabilize within the price channel.
If gold rises and breaks above the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, it will be eligible to continue rising with a short-term target of around $3,400 rather than a horizontal resistance of $3,430.
The indecision sentiment is shown by the RSI activity, which is mostly moving around the 50 level. RSI above 50 is considered a positive signal, while RSI below 50 is considered a negative signal, but gold is currently in the middle of this point.
Overall, gold has not yet had a short-term trend, but in the long-term, gold prices are still in an upward trend, which is noted by the price channel.
Finally, the notable positions will be listed as follows.
Support: 3,300 – 3,292 – 3,250USD
Resistance: 3,350 – 3,371 – 3,400USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3334 - 3332⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3338
→Take Profit 1 3326
↨
→Take Profit 2 3320
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3275 - 3277⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3271
→Take Profit 1 3283
↨
→Take Profit 2 3289
GOLD: Next Move Is Down! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse GOLD together☺️
The recent price action suggests a shift in mid-term momentum. A break below the current local range around 3,358.00 will confirm the new direction downwards with the target being the next key level of 3,349.30.and a reconvened placement of a stop-loss beyond the range.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
Trump blasted Powell again. Interest rates remain unchanged.Information summary:
Trump blasted Powell on Wednesday, saying that the current interest rate is "at least 3 percentage points higher" and once again accused Fed Chairman Powell of "making the United States pay an extra $360 billion in refinancing costs each year." He also said that "there is no inflation" and that companies "are pouring into the United States," and urged the Fed to "cut interest rates."
During the U.S. trading session, gold also showed a significant rebound momentum, rebounding from a low of 3285 to above 3310 in one fell swoop. As of now, gold has stood above 3320.
Market analysis:
From the daily chart:
It can be seen that the first suppression position above gold is currently at 3325, followed by around 3345. Gold did not close above 3320 on Wednesday, which means that even if gold is currently above 3320, as long as today's daily line closes below 3320, it is still in a bearish trend. On the contrary, if the closing price today is above 3320, then the subsequent test of the suppression position near 3345 may be further carried out.
Secondly, from the 4-hour chart, the current suppression position above 4 hours is around 3330-3335. Therefore, today we should focus on this position. If we cannot stand firm and break through the range suppression here in the 4-hour chart, we may retreat again in the future. The key support position below is around 3310, which is the opening price today. If the price is to retreat, it is likely to fall below 3310. But it may also remain above 3310 for consolidation.
However, as long as it falls below 3310, I think the low point near 3285 may be refreshed, so pay attention to this.
Operation strategy:
Steady trading waits for 3310 to fall and break through to short, and the profit range is 3385 or even lower.
Aggressive trading can short near 3340, with a stop loss of 3350.
gold long viewbuy gold now regret later.. here my view bullish flag for gold.. Now market react on fresh zone 4h. Careful if breakout below.
GOLD continues to recover, tariff war changes unpredictablyInternational OANDA:XAUUSD continued to rise, boosted by a slight decline in the US Dollar and US Treasury yields. At the same time, investors are closely monitoring the developments in trade negotiations as US President Trump expands the tariff war.
As of the time of writing, spot OANDA:XAUUSD increased by 0.3% to 3,333 USD/oz. The general weakness of the US Dollar, the decline in US Treasury yields and renewed concerns about the escalation of the trade war have helped stabilize gold prices.
On Thursday evening (July 10) local time, US President Donald Trump once again increased pressure on trading partners. He announced that he would impose a 35% tariff on imported goods from Canada, and the USD/CAD exchange rate rose sharply in the short term.
Trump posted on his social media platform Truth Social that a 35% tariff would be imposed on imported goods from Canada, effective from August 1, 2025.
It is still unclear whether the current exemptions for goods traded under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) will be extended or terminated.
Due to the impact of escalating trade tensions, spot gold prices also rose by more than 10 dollars in the short term at the beginning of the Asian trading session on Friday, and the current high price of gold has reached around 3,336 USD/ounce.
In an interview with NBC News on Thursday, Trump said he was also considering imposing a flat tariff of 15% to 20% on most of his trading partners, adding that the exact tariff rate was being worked out. The current flat tariff rate is 10%.
Trump sent letters to trading partners this week, announcing that the new tariffs would take effect on August 1 if they could not negotiate more favorable terms. He is expected to send letters to European Union member states soon.
Trump sent the first batch of tariff letters to 14 countries, including Japan and South Korea, on July 7, with tariffs ranging from 25% to 40%. He also said he would send more similar letters this week.
Minutes from the Fed's June 17-18 meeting showed that only a "few" Fed officials thought a rate cut was possible as early as this month, while most preferred to hold off until later in the year due to inflation concerns caused by Trump's tariffs.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted unanimously to leave interest rates unchanged at its June meeting. The next policy meeting is scheduled for July 29-30.
Markets will focus on progress in Trump's tariff negotiations, key US economic data and speeches by Federal Reserve officials later in the day for fresh trading direction for gold prices.
Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
Gold has had 2 sessions of recovery from the area around the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement, but the temporary upside momentum is still limited and does not qualify for a new bullish cycle.
In the short term, the EMA21 with the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement will act as the nearest resistance, if gold takes the price action to break above the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level it will qualify for a new bullish cycle with the target then being around $3,400 in the short term, more so than $3,430.
On the other hand, with the current neutral trend, once gold is sold below the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level again, it will have conditions to decline, and the target then is around 3,246 USD in the short term, more than the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level.
The RSI index is hovering around 50, also showing that the market sentiment is still hesitant to have a specific direction.
During the day, the sideways trend of gold prices will be noticed by the following positions.
Support: 3,300 - 3,292 USD
Resistance: 3,340 - 3,350 - 3,371 USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3388 - 3386⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3392
→Take Profit 1 3380
↨
→Take Profit 2 3372
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3296 - 3298⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3292
→Take Profit 1 3304
↨
→Take Profit 2 3310
Gold Breaks Free, Ready to Ride the WindGold may ride the wind upward after breaking out of its consolidation structure, opening a path of potential upside.
#XAUUSD – H1 High Probability Setup
📊 **#XAUUSD – H1 High Probability Setup** 🔍
If you recall our **morning analysis**, we clearly mentioned that price is likely to **mitigate the zone below 3300** —
and as expected, **price tapped into 3296**, which aligned with both the **H1 Order Block** and **Golden Fibonacci zone** 🎯📉
---
📈 **Current Setup in Progress:**
We're now watching for a **bullish H1 candle close above 3353** 🔼
Once confirmed, we’ll execute a **layered buy strategy**:
🔹 **50% entry at activation** (above 3353)
🔹 **30% on retracement** (if price dips 50–60 pips below entry)
🔹 **Remaining 20%** if price dips **70+ pips** below entry zone
---
🛡️ **Stoploss:** 3338–3337 (slightly wide due to structure)
This is why we **scale into the trade** — for **better risk management** and **position control** ✅
🎯 **Minimum Target:** 100–150 pips
🏁 **Extended Target (Optional):** 3396 – for those who can hold with conviction 📊💰
---
🧠 *Follow structure, manage risk, and trust the plan. High probability setups don’t need to be rushed.*
Gold is probably gonna buy from support level back to resistanceAfter gold buys off from support, it’s gonna retest the resistance and finally break out from the support to give a clear down trend.👑
July 11, 2025 - XAUUSD GOLD Analysis and Potential Opportunity📝 Analysis:
Strong bullish momentum continues. During the Asian session, the plan is to buy on pullbacks to support.
Key resistance at 3345 — if it holds, short setups may offer good risk-reward.
🔍 Key Levels to Watch:
• 3375 – Resistance
• 3365 – Resistance
• 3350 – Midpoint resistance
• 3345 – Intraday key resistance
• 3330 – Key support
• 3322 – Support
• 3315 – Support
• 3307 – Intraday key support
• 3300 – Psychological level
📈 Intraday Strategy:
• SELL if price breaks below 3330 → watch 3327, then 3322, 3315, 3308
• BUY if price holds above 3330 → watch 3337, then 3345, 3350, 3355
👉 If you want to know how I time entries and set stop-losses, hit the like button so I know there’s interest — I may publish a detailed post by the weekend if support continues!
Disclaimer: This is my personal opinion, not financial advice. Always trade with caution and manage your risk.
Elliott Wave Update – Is Wave 2 Complete?OANDA:XAUUSD
We're currently in an ABC correction following our Wave 1.
Potentially, Wave C is already completed, which would mean that Wave 2 has found its top.
❗ Why do I say potentially?
Because there's still a chance we could see a higher high before the real drop begins.
However, based on the current structure, I believe the top is in ✅
⚠️ Key Confirmation – White Trendline
📉 If we break below the white trendline, it confirms the end of Wave 2.
Then I expect a 5-wave move down:
➡️ (1) - (2) - (3) - (4) - (5)
📈 If the trendline holds, we might still see a higher Wave 2 before reversal.
📏 Fib Zones are marked on the chart for confluence and targets.
Let’s see how price reacts in the coming hours. A confirmed breakdown would set the stage for the next impulse ⚡
Gold 30Min Engaged ( Bullish Entry Detected )Time Frame: 30-Minute Warfare
Entry Protocol: Only after volume-verified breakout
🩸Bullish Break : 3305
➗ Hanzo Protocol: Volume-Tiered Entry Authority
➕ Zone Activated: Dynamic market pressure detected.
The level isn’t just price — it’s a memory of where they moved size.
Volume is rising beneath the surface — not noise, but preparation.
🔥 Tactical Note:
We wait for the energy signature — when volume betrays intention.
The trap gets set. The weak follow. We execute.
Gold Analysis – Multi-Timeframe OutlookOn the Monthly timeframe, we’ve now seen a clear triple wick rejection, signaling potential downside momentum. After multiple failed attempts to break above the $3,400 level, price action has begun to retrace.
Looking at the 1H timeframe, we’ve broken below the upward trendline, and price continues to push lower. This reinforces the bearish sentiment for now.
That said, if we see a break and close above $3,330, I’ll be watching for a potential retest of the previous trendline near the $3,364 level. Conversely, a break below $3,283 could open the door for further downside toward the $3,247 level.
Heading into Friday, with no significant USD news on the calendar, I’m expecting low volatility and potential sideways movement.
Trade Ideas:
• Sell zone: $3,325 – $3,330
• Buy zone: $3,308 – $3,313
As always, risk management is key — only risk 1–2% of your capital per trade.
Good luck and stay disciplined!
Looking for catalysts - Gold Outlook July 7 - July 11, 2025All about last week you can find here:
FX_IDC:XAUUSD Gold is currently seeking fresh catalysts this week. 🧐
While the economic calendar appears light for this time of year, a lack of economic data doesn't mean nothing is happening. Geopolitical events, especially tariff wars or other flashpoints, remain significant. Are there increasing signs for peace in the Middle East between Israel and Hamas? 🕊️
This week Gold could take advantage from an exisiting reversal head and shoulders pattern and painting pitchfork in the chart shows possibillities for Upside targeting $3400.
## Geopolitical News Landscape 🌍📰
Israel / Iran ⚔️🛑☢️
After fierce clashes in June, a **ceasefire** began June 24. 🇮🇷 Iran's Supreme Leader reappeared July 6, claiming victory 🎤. Tehran has now **banned IAEA inspectors** ❌🔍. Over 900 Iranians reportedly killed ⚰️.
🔮 Outlook: ⚠️ Nuclear tensions growing, diplomacy frozen 🧊. Regional powers remain on high alert 🚨.
India / Pakistan 🗻🔫🕌
Tense calm in Kashmir 😐. India launched its sacred **Amarnath Yatra** 🕉️ under heavy security 🛡️. Pakistan killed 30 militants near the Afghan border ⚔️, while China 🐉 admitted sharing intel 📡.
🔮 Outlook: Diplomatic track stays open 🕊️, but **border flare-ups** and water disputes 💧 remain volatile 🔥.
Gaza Conflict 💣🏘️🕊️
Israel launched deadly airstrikes ✈️, including one on a beach café ☕🏖️ killing 22. Dozens more died 💔. IDF admitted accidental strikes on aid sites 🚚❌. U.S.-led talks seek a **60-day truce** 🤝.
🔮 Outlook: Ceasefire possible 🛑, but **humanitarian crisis** worsening 🚨🩺. Trust remains fragile 💔.
Russia / Ukraine ⚔️
Zelenskyy 🇺🇦 and Trump 📞 discussed new air defense aid 🎯. Russia answered with **massive drone strikes** on Kyiv 🚁🔥. NATO boosts arms shipments 🔫 and backs Ukraine’s domestic weapons production 🏭.
🔮 Outlook: War grinds on ⚙️. No peace in sight, with **global stakes** rising 📈.
U.S. / China Trade War 💼📦🔥
With new tariffs looming 📆💣, Treasury said “multiple deals” are near 🤝. Trump claimed a **partial deal with China** 🐉, though tariffs remain high 📊.
🔮 Outlook: More piecemeal deals 🍰, but a **full-scale trade reset** looks unlikely before elections 🗳️.
🌍 Global Trade War 📉🚢💸
Trump’s shifting tariffs 🎯 hurt global growth 🌐. Markets hit record highs 📈 but investment chills ❄️. The 💵 dollar had its sharpest 6-month drop 📉 in decades.
🔮 Outlook: Businesses remain cautious ⚠️. **Supply chains** reroute 🔄. No global rebound without clarity 🔍.
Trump vs. Powell 💥🏛️📉
Trump demanded Powell’s resignation ❌📉, accusing him of weak rate policy 📊. Powell held firm 🧊, citing inflation risks 📈. Trump eyes replacements 👀🪑.
🔮 Outlook: Fed independence 🏛️ under fire 🔥. **Rate policy** may get politicized ahead of 2025 elections 🗳️.
📈 U.S. Inflation 🛒💰🧾
Inflation slowed to 0.1% 🐢, but tariffs raised prices on appliances 🔌 (+4.3%) and toys 🧸. Fed projects 3% inflation by year-end 📊.
🔮 Outlook: As **tariffs bite** 🦷, inflation likely to climb 📈. Fed stays cautious 🧐 on cuts.
Technical View 📐📈
Analysis Period: May 25 - June 6, 2025 | Forecast: June 7-11, 2025
1. ICT (Inner Circle Trader) Methodology Analysis 🧠
Market Structure
Higher Timeframe Bias: The chart shows a clear bullish market structure with higher highs and higher lows from the major low around 3,250. 🐂
Current Structure: Price is in a consolidation phase after reaching highs near 3,370, showing potential distribution. ⚖️
Key ICT Concepts Identified:
Fair Value Gap (FVG): Multiple gaps visible during the strong rally from 3,250 to 3,370. 💨
Order Blocks: Significant demand zone around 3,250-3,260 level (major accumulation area). 📦
Liquidity Zones:
Buy-side liquidity above 3,370 (recent highs). 💸
Sell-side liquidity below 3,320 (recent consolidation lows). 📉
Market Maker Models: Classic accumulation-manipulation-distribution pattern visible. 🔄
Session Analysis:
London Session: Shows strong directional moves. 🇬🇧
New York Session: Continuation of trends with increased volatility. 🗽
Asian Session: Consolidation and range-bound behavior. 🌏
2. Gann Analysis 🧙♂️
Gann Angles & Time Cycles:
Primary Trend: 1x1 angle supporting the bullish move from 3,250. ↗️
Resistance Angles: 2x1 and 3x1 angles providing resistance around current levels. 🚧
Time Cycles:
7-day cycle showing completion around June 2-3. 🗓️
14-day cycle suggesting potential reversal window June 7-9. ⏳
Gann Price Levels:
Major Support: 3,250 (1/8 level). 🛡️
Current Resistance: 3,370 (7/8 level). 🛑
Next Target: 3,400 (full octave completion). 🎯
Geometric Relationships:
Price squared relationship suggests 3,380-3,400 as natural resistance. 📐
Time-price balance indicates consolidation period before next major move. 🕰️⚖️
3. Fibonacci Analysis ✨
Retracement Levels (from 3,250 low to 3,370 high):
23.6%: 3,341.6
38.2%: 3,324.2
50.0%: 3,310.0
61.8%: 3,295.8
78.6%: 3,265.6
Extension Levels:
127.2%: 3,402.6
161.8%: 3,444.2
200.0%: 3,490.0
Current Analysis:
Price has respected the 23.6% retracement level multiple times. ✅
Strong support confluence at 38.2% level (3,324). 💪
Extension targets suggest potential move to 3,402-3,444 range. 🚀
4. Institutional Levels Analysis 🏦
Psychological Levels:
3,300: Major round number providing support. 💯
3,350: Mid-level resistance. 📊
3,400: Next major psychological target. 🎯
Institutional Order Flow:
Accumulation Zone: 3,250-3,280 (heavy institutional buying). 💰
Distribution Zone: 3,350-3,370 (profit-taking area). 💸
Breakout Target: 3,400+ (next institutional objective). ⬆️
Volume Analysis:
High volume on the initial move up from 3,250. 📈
Decreasing volume during consolidation (typical distribution pattern). 📉
Volume expansion needed for breakout confirmation. 💥
5. Cycle Timing Analysis ⏰
Short-Term Cycles:
3-day cycle: Currently in compression phase. 🤏
7-day cycle: Completed around June 2-3. ✅
14-day cycle: Due for completion June 7-9. ⏳
Medium-Term Cycles:
Monthly cycle: Bullish momentum phase. ⬆️
Quarterly cycle: In expansion phase. 🌟
Cycle Projection:
Next major cycle turn expected June 7-9. 🔄
Potential for either breakout or correction during this window. 🤞
6. FORECAST: June 7-11, 2025 🔮
Primary Scenario (60% probability): Bullish Breakout 🚀
Target 1: 3,400-3,410
Target 2: 3,440-3,450
Catalyst: Break above 3,370 with volume. 💥
Timeline: June 7-9 initial move, June 10-11 extension.
Secondary Scenario (35% probability): Corrective Pullback ⬇️
Target 1: 3,320-3,325 (38.2% Fibonacci)
Target 2: 3,300-3,310 (psychological support)
Catalyst: Failure to break 3,370 resistance. 🚫
Timeline: June 7-8 decline, June 9-11 consolidation.
Low Probability Scenario (5% probability): Deep Correction 📉
Target: 3,280-3,290 (61.8% Fibonacci)
Catalyst: Major risk-off sentiment. 😱
Timeline: Extended throughout the week.
7. Key Assumptions & Risk Factors 🤔
Bullish Assumptions:
Continued institutional accumulation at current levels. 🏦
Breakout above 3,370 with confirming volume. ⬆️
Favorable macroeconomic backdrop for gold. 🌍
Weakness in USD supporting gold prices. 💵
Geopolitical tensions maintaining safe-haven demand. 🕊️
Bearish Risk Factors:
Profit-taking at psychological 3,400 level. 🤝
Stronger USD due to economic data. 💹
Reduced safe-haven demand. 📉
Technical failure at key resistance levels. 🚧
Central bank policy shifts. 🏛️
8. Trading Recommendations 💡
Entry Strategies:
Bullish Setup: Buy on pullback to 3,340-3,345 with stop below 3,320. 🎯
Breakout Play: Buy break above 3,372 with stop below 3,350. 🚀
Conservative: Wait for retest of 3,324 support area. patiently 🧘
Risk Management:
Position Size: Limit to 2-3% of portfolio per trade. 📏
Stop Loss: Always use stops below key support levels. ⛔
Take Profit: Scale out at Fibonacci extension levels. 💰
Key Levels to Watch:
Immediate Resistance: 3,365-3,370 🛑
Support: 3,340-3,345 🛡️
Breakout Level: 3,372 🚀
Major Support: 3,320-3,325 💪
9. Conclusion ✅
The XAUUSD chart presents a constructive bullish setup with multiple confluences supporting higher prices. The completion of various cycles around June 7-9 suggests a potential catalyst for the next major move. While the primary bias remains bullish targeting 3,400+, traders should remain alert to the possibility of a corrective pullback to test lower support levels. 🧐
The institutional accumulation pattern, combined with favorable Gann angles and Fibonacci projections, supports the bullish thesis. However, proper risk management is essential given the potential for volatility around key psychological levels. ⚠️
Please take the time to let me know what you think about this. 💬
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This is just my personal market idea and not financial advice! 📢 Trading gold and other financial instruments carries risks – only invest what you can afford to lose. Always do your own analysis, use solid risk management, and trade responsibly.
Good luck and safe trading! 🚀📊
GOLD EYES 3,360 BREAKOUT – IS THIS THE BUY SETUP?Gold is currently trading around $3,355, up 18 pips from yesterday. The bullish momentum is fueled by rising trade tensions as Trump imposes 35–50% tariffs on Canada and Brazil, along with a weakening USD and falling U.S. bond yields.
Technically, gold maintains a clear uptrend with higher lows. The $3,360 zone is now a key breakout level — if breached, price could surge toward $3,432. As long as gold holds above $3,250, the bullish structure remains intact.
What’s your move — breakout or pullback?
GOLD Massive Short! SELL!
My dear friends,
My technical analysis for GOLD is below:
The market is trading on 3353.5 pivot level.
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation.
Target - 3343.00
Recommended Stop Loss - 3359.88
About Used Indicators:
A pivot point is a technical analysis indicator, or calculations, used to determine the overall trend of the market over different time frames.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Overall Trajectory BullishEntering long positions on XAU/USD based on a confirmed 3-Drive pattern on the H4 timeframe, aligning with confluence from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement zone.
As long as price stays and holds above 3200 I will remain bullish, if there is a close below 3200 then my analysis will be subject to change. Strong resistance will be at 3400 if it holds then the target is 3641 with a minor pullback at 3548.
How to seize gold trading opportunitiesNews:
On Friday (July 11) in the Asian time zone, US President Trump posted a "tariff change" on social media, announcing that a 35% tariff would be imposed on all Canadian goods from August 1, a 10 percentage point increase from the current rate. This decision was like a thunderbolt, instantly igniting the market's risk aversion sentiment, and the spot gold price soared, reaching a high of $3,344 per ounce during the session. Although Trump extended the tariff agreement to August 1, which once suppressed the gold price, he subsequently stated that it would not be extended after the expiration, and launched further tariff attacks after the expiration, announcing a new 50% tariff on copper imports from the United States and a 50% tariff on goods from Brazil, which increased concerns about tariff risks and pushed the gold price to rebound from the bottom;
Gold trend analysis:
The market is fluctuating repeatedly now, and it is possible to rise or fall, but under the bullish trend, the main force is still rising. Therefore, this week's trading is to fall back and do more at a low price. Whether it is the previous 3285, 3304, or 3317, there are good profits. Although it is temporarily unable to break out of the bullish volume, at least the trend remains unchanged, and there will definitely be a large upward space in the future. Today is Friday, and we still pay attention to the possibility of bullish volume. This Monday has been emphasizing that if it rises during the week, it will look at the 3345 high point. If 3345 breaks, there are still 3365 and 3400 above. Friday will see whether this idea is realized.
From a technical point of view, all cycles are obviously bullish now. The daily line bottomed out on Tuesday, and Wednesday and Thursday were all small broken Yang rising. If it continues, we will first see whether the daily Bollinger middle rail 3345 pressure is broken. After the break, the big Yang closes high. This wave of rise may reach 3400. Therefore, the daily cycle has a lot of room for growth and should not be taken lightly. The H4 cycle needs to see whether today's rise can break 3345, because if it breaks 3345, there is a possibility of the upper rail opening. After the upper rail opens, gold will have a unilateral trend. Therefore, today's bullish target is 3345. If 3345 is not broken, there is still a possibility of a decline. If 3345 breaks, there will be 3365 and 3400 above. Here, it is clearly bullish and optimistic about the break of 3345. After determining the direction, the trading idea on Friday is also clear. It must be mainly long on the decline. The support below is 3320-3310. Don't chase more in the European session. Trade again if there is a decline.
Gold operation strategy: It is recommended to go long if it falls back to around 3315-3325, with the target at 3335-3345; it is recommended to consider shorting if it touches 3345 but does not break, with the target at 3335-3325.
Gold Weekly Report Conclusion: Continue to be bullishGold Weekly Report Conclusion: Continue to be bullish
I. Market Review This Week
Under pressure in the first half of the week: Affected by the strengthening of the US dollar, the gold price once fell below 3,300 points.
Rebound in the second half of the week: As the Trump administration announced new tariffs on Canada, market risk aversion increased, and the gold price rebounded to above 3,350 points and finally closed at 3,355 points.
Review of key influencing factors:
Federal Reserve policy expectations: The market still expects a possible rate cut in September, but some officials expressed hawkish views, resulting in short-term fluctuations in gold prices.
Geopolitical risks: US-Canada trade frictions and tensions in the Middle East support safe-haven demand.
Central bank gold purchases: The People's Bank of China has increased its gold holdings for eight consecutive months, and the global central bank's gold purchase trend has not changed.
II. Analysis of gold trend next week
1. Fundamental outlook
(1) Federal Reserve policy and US dollar trend
Next week, focus on the speech of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell (July 16) and US June retail sales data (July 17).
If retail data is weak, it may strengthen expectations of a rate cut in September, which is good for gold. On the contrary, if the data is strong, the US dollar may rebound, suppressing gold prices. The US dollar index (DXY) is currently around 104.5. If it falls below 104, gold may rise further. (2) Geopolitical risks: US-Canada trade friction: If the conflict escalates, safe-haven buying may continue to support gold prices. Middle East situation: Progress in Iran nuclear negotiations and Red Sea shipping safety are still potential catalysts. (3) Central bank gold purchases and institutional holdings: The global central bank's gold purchase trend has not changed. China, Poland and other countries are still increasing their holdings, which will support gold prices in the long term. ETF holdings: SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 5.3 tons last week, indicating that market sentiment has warmed up. Technical analysis: (1) Short-term trend (daily chart) Key support levels: 3300 (psychological support level), 3277 (trend line support level). Key resistance levels: 3373 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement level), 3400 (psychological barrier).
Moving average system: 50-day moving average (3330) provides support.
If it stands at 3350 points, it may challenge 3400 points.
MACD indicator: The fast and slow lines form a golden cross, the momentum column turns strong, and the short-term trend is bullish.
(2) Medium-term trend (weekly chart)
The rising channel is maintained, and the long-term trend is still bullish.
Key resistance: 3452 (previous high point), which may open up upward space after breaking through.
Key support: 3247 (61.8% retracement level), if it falls below, it may enter a macro adjustment.
III. Trading strategy for next week
1. Bullish scenario (breakthrough 3373 points)
Entry conditions: Stand firm at 3373 points, and the US dollar weakens.
Target: 3400→3452.
Stop loss: below 3340.
2. Bearish scenario (falling below 3300)
Entry conditions: falling below 3300 and the US dollar rebounding.
Target: 3277→3247.
Stop loss: above 3320.
3. Oscillating strategy (3300-3373 range)
Buy low and sell high, pay attention to the competition around 3350.
Conclusion
Short term (next week): Gold prices may fluctuate in the range of 3300-3373, pay attention to the speech of the Federal Reserve and retail data.
Breakout direction: If it stands at 3350, it is expected to test 3400; if it falls below 3300, it may fall to 3277.
XAU/USD (Gold) Analysis : Structure analysis + Next Reversal📌 1. Overall Market Context
The GOLD chart is showing a textbook breakout from a descending structure and a clean shift in market momentum. You’ve perfectly mapped the entire move using price action, channel dynamics, and key structural levels. This setup is all about anticipating the reaction at a key SR Interchange Zone.
🛠️ 2. Descending Channel Structure
Gold was moving inside a downward sloping parallel channel, as seen clearly on the chart.
Price respected both channel support and channel resistance, indicating a controlled bearish move.
The tag “Channel Support” shows the final reaction before the breakout.
This pattern often signals a corrective phase, not a strong downtrend.
✅ 3. Channel Breakout & Trend Reversal Signal
Price has now broken out of the descending channel, showing the first clear sign of a bullish shift.
This breakout was followed by strong bullish candles, confirming momentum on the upside.
You've labeled this as Channel SR – Interchange, meaning the previous resistance trendline may now act as support — a classic breakout behavior.
📉 4. Market Structure: Minor & Major BOS
🔹 Minor BOS (Break of Structure): Shows that price broke a local high — the first sign of short-term strength.
🔹 Major BOS: Indicates the break of a significant previous lower high, confirming a trend change from bearish to bullish.
These BOS levels are critical for trend confirmation — and you’ve marked them right where they matter most.
🧠 5. Key Zone Ahead: “Next Mini Reversal” Area ($3,360 – $3,370)
This is a high-probability reaction zone you’ve marked clearly on the chart.
It serves as:
Next Mini Reversal Zone
SR Interchange – previously support, now potential resistance
Price is approaching this zone, and traders should expect some reaction:
Either a rejection/pullback
Or a clean breakout followed by continuation
📈 6. Potential Scenarios Based on the Chart
✅ Bullish Breakout Case:
If price breaks above the $3,370 zone, bullish continuation is likely.
Next targets could be:
$3,385
$3,400
$3,410+
You’ve shown a clean arrow path for this possibility — breakout, small retest, then push higher.
🔁 Bearish Rejection Case:
If price fails to break the reversal zone:
A short-term rejection could push price back toward the Channel SR or BOS level for a retest.
This would form a higher low, keeping the bullish structure intact.
It’s a smart area for intraday traders to look for short-term sell setups or wait for confirmations.
🔐 7. Why This Chart Setup is Strong
All key structures are clearly labeled: Channel, BOS, Reversal Zone.
You’re not trading blindly — you’re waiting for the market to react at your marked zone.
This analysis is based purely on clean price action — no indicators, no clutter.
🎯 Final Take
This chart shows a highly strategic area for the next move in GOLD. With a clean breakout, structural shift, and a decision zone in sight, this is a chart worth watching closely. Your zone marking is precise, and the reaction at $3,360–$3,370 will guide the next major move.
GOLD Wait For Breakout!
HI,Traders !
#GOLD has formed a Bullish Flag pattern
While trading in an uptrend As
we mentioned in a previous analysis
So we are bullish biased and
IF we see a bullish breakout
We will be expecting a
Further bullish move up !
Comment and subscribe to help us grow !
XAUUSD PRICE MIGHT DROP! Major resistance is at 3485.62I am still bearish in XAUUSD. I still anticipate a correction to occur in the market as price still finds it difficult to break the make a new high. Technically, I’ll be monitoring when price will resist the High one more time this coming week so as to gain a potential sell entry!
short sell on goldGold (XAUUSD) is approaching the 78% premium zone after sweeping internal liquidity, suggesting a potential reversal. This setup anticipates a smart money distribution move, with a sell entry around 3,335–3,340, stop loss above 3,348, and targets at 3,310 (TP1) and 3,290 (TP2). The expectation is that after grabbing liquidity, price will reject from premium and drop toward the equal lows where sell-side liquidity rests.
