XAUUSD trade ideas
Gold in a Range — Caution for BuyersHey traders and investors!
On the daily timeframe, gold remains in a sideways range (marked by black lines).
The seller's initiative is still active and hasn't reached its target yet.
A seller zone has formed — highlighted by a red rectangle on the chart.
It’s better to look for buy setups around 3260 and 3201-3167.
This analysis is based on the Initiative Analysis concept (IA).
Wishing you profitable trades!
Daily Analysis: 09‑05‑2025Spot gold closed yesterday with a 1.75% loss, settling at 3,306, following the announcement of a trade agreement between the United States and the United Kingdom. President Trump also stated that significant trade talks with China are expected to take place at the end of the week, with a potential 145% reduction in tariffs—developments that could impact the markets and increase volatility at the start of next week.
This morning, gold is showing a slight upward bias, though price action for the remainder of the day is likely to remain sideways and limited.
Technically, the levels of 3,334 and 3,360 are seen as potential resistance, while 3,310 and 3,287 act as key support levels in case of a pullback.
GoldXAUUSD
- Ascending Triangle in Short Time Frame
- Change of Characteristics
- Completed " 12345 " Impulsive Waves
- Falling Wedge as an corrective pattern in Long Time Frame
- Fibonacci Level - 50.00% / 61.80%
GOLD H8 Update: Bulls will target 3600 USD🏆 Gold Market Mid-Term Update
📊 Technical Outlook Update
🏆 Bull Market Overview
▪️pullback looks complete now
▪️3000/3200/3400/3600 USD key S/R
▪️Reversal at 3200 USD
▪️Resistance near 3400 USD
▪️Bulls maintain strategic advantage
▪️Target for BULLS 3600 USD
▪️short-term dips are possible
▪️focus on buying dips
⭐️Recommended strategy
▪️BUY/HOLD accumulate dips
▪️TP BULLS 3600 USD
🏦Fed Outlook: Mixed data fuels speculation on policy shift. Analysts see gold’s pullback as a new buying opportunity.
🌏Asian Demand: China and India remain key forces in price direction, alternating as major buyers.
📦Tariff Watch: Ongoing U.S.-China trade tension continues to weigh on risk sentiment, keeping gold in play.
🛑Geopolitics: No major updates on Iran-U.S. talks, India-Pakistan, or Russia-Ukraine ceasefire yet. These remain key risk triggers.
XAUUSD NEXT MOVE Price fails to break 3,340–3,360 resistance.
2. Rejection leads to another drop toward 3,280 support.
3. Weak bounce or no bounce from the support zone.
4. Breakdown and continuation to the downside.
15 min long entrypoint XAUUSDThis is a long position that I just take.
Use risk and management and lets see How is will go.
GOLD FED CAUTIOUS WAIT AND SEE APPROCH
1. Inverse Correlation Between Gold and the Dollar (DXY)
Gold and the U.S. dollar typically share a strong inverse relationship: when the dollar strengthens, gold becomes more expensive in other currencies, reducing demand and lowering gold prices, and vice versa.
Currently, gold’s 30-day correlation to the DXY stands at around -0.68, confirming this inverse link.
However, this relationship has been somewhat disrupted recently due to factors like central bank buying and geopolitical tensions, which have supported gold even amid a strong dollar.
2. Impact of Interest Rate Differentials and Federal Reserve Policy
Gold is sensitive to real interest rates (nominal rates minus inflation). Higher real rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold, typically pressuring prices downward.
The Fed’s recent decision to hold rates steady at 4.25–4.5% led to a slight dip in gold prices from session highs around $3,400 to about $3,371 per ounce, illustrating gold’s sensitivity to U.S. monetary policy.
Despite this, gold remains resilient near all-time highs (~$3,500/oz), supported by ongoing trade uncertainties, geopolitical risks, and central bank demand.
Markets expect possible Fed rate cuts later in 2025, which historically have supported gold rallies. For example, every 25 basis points of rate cuts have been associated with roughly a 3.5% rise in gold prices.
3. Geopolitical and Trade Tensions Supporting Gold
Trade tensions (e.g., U.S. tariffs on China, EU, Canada) and geopolitical uncertainties have increased gold’s safe-haven appeal, at times overriding the typical negative impact of a stronger dollar or higher rates.
Central banks, especially China, continue to accumulate gold aggressively, structurally supporting prices.
4. Summary of Dynamics
Stronger U.S. Dollar (DXY) Generally bearish for gold Negative correlation with gold price
Higher Real Interest Rates Bearish (higher opportunity cost) Fed rate hikes typically strengthen DXY
Fed Rate Holds or Cuts Bullish (lower opportunity cost) Cuts weaken DXY, support gold
Geopolitical/Tariff Uncertainty Bullish (safe haven demand) Can decouple gold from dollar strength
Central Bank Gold Buying Bullish (structural support) Independent of DXY
In essence:
Gold prices in 2025 are influenced by a delicate balance between Federal Reserve interest rate policy, the strength of the U.S. dollar, and geopolitical risks. While higher interest rates and a stronger dollar typically pressure gold, ongoing trade tensions, safe-haven demand, and central bank buying have helped gold remain near record highs. Future Fed rate cuts and easing inflation could further bolster gold, especially if the dollar weakens.
GOLD 1H CHART ROUTE MAP & TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEKHey Everyone,
Please see our updated 1h chart levels and targets for the coming week.
We are seeing price play between two weighted levels with a gap above at 3260 and a gap below at 3217. We will need to see ema5 cross and lock on either weighted level to determine the next range. EMA5 is lagging below 3306 so will need a close above and then below to confirm.
We will see levels tested side by side until one of the weighted levels break and lock to confirm direction for the next range.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
The swing range give bigger bounces then our weighted levels that's the difference between weighted levels and swing ranges.
BULLISH TARGET
3260
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3260 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGETS
3308
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3308 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3340
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3340 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3382
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3382 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGETS
3428
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3428 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGETS
3478
BEARISH TARGETS
3217
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3217 WILL OPEN THE BEARISH TARGETS
3174
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3174 WILL OPEN THE SWING RNGE
3126
3078
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3078 WILL OPEN THE SECONDARY SWING RANGE
SECONDARY SWING RANGE
3034 - 2979
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
Gold Intraday Trading Plan 5/9/2025Gold has broken 3360 yesterday and tested 3300. Currently in daily timeframe, it is still bullish. As long as it is above 3270, I am bullish on gold.
I have two strategies for buying orders today.
1. Buy from 3270
2. Buy if 3330 broken
We can target 3360 for today.
A CLEAR SELL SET UP ON XAUUSD(GOLD)XAUUSD IS currently trending down , uptrend is clearly broken .we are patiently waiting price to retest the trend and order blog for a potential sell opportunity.
XAUUSD: 8/5 Today’s Market Analysis and StrategyGold technical analysis
4-hour chart resistance level 3410, support level 3310
1-hour chart resistance level 3380, support level 3310
30-minute chart resistance level 3350, support level 3320.
Trump said that he would hold a "large press conference" at 10 a.m. Eastern Time tomorrow, and may sign a trade agreement with the UK. Therefore, the news affected the gold price.
Russia implemented a ceasefire from 0:00 on May 8 to 0:00 on May 11 local time. The temporary ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine and the repeated situation in the Middle East may support the gold price in stages due to the risk aversion demand.
Recently, affected by the news, the daily operation range of gold is very large. Today, we will first look at the 3320-3360 range of fluctuations in the short term. If it breaks through, follow the trend and strictly stop loss!
Buy: 3323 SL: 3318
Sell: 3355 SL: 3360
More free analysis daily sharing
Gold Narrative OverviewGold remains in a long-term and medium-term uptrend, while currently showing signs of a short-term pullback. Given this context, the most logical stance is to continue looking for buying opportunities. However, price has reached rather extreme levels after a sharp and uninterrupted rally in recent weeks. That’s why I lean toward the expectation of at least a temporary pause followed by a downside correction and the formation of a consolidation phase.
On the local timeframe, I anticipate that the price may continue to move lower through a consolidation, targeting the previous support level around 3,201. While short-term bullish impulses are still possible, I expect the broader move to be downward. This bearish setup would be invalidated if the price breaks above 3,380.
XAUUSD 15 MINUTEThe chart you've provided shows a 15-minute candlestick pattern for Gold Spot (XAU/USD) from OANDA. Here's a quick analysis:
Trade Setup: A short (sell) trade was placed after a rally.
Red Box: Indicates the stop-loss zone (above the entry point).
Green Box: Represents the take-profit zone (below the entry point).
Text "TARGET SUCCESSFUL": Suggests that the price moved downwards and hit the target profit level.
Entry Price: Around 3,357.
Target (Take-Profit): Near 3,332.556.
Stop-Loss: Near 3,368.
This trade was successful, as the price dropped and touched the take-profit zone, exiting before hitting the stop-loss.
Would you like help setting up a similar trade or analyzing another part of the chart?
Sell We have a high probability Sell Set up on GOLD, make sure to not go with more than 1%. When the price gives 1:1 RR make sure to go B.even. 1:2 take 80% and let it run.
GOLD The Target Is UP! BUY!
My dear followers,
I analysed this chart on GOLD and concluded the following:
The market is trading on 3358.8 pivot level.
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bullish continuation.
Target - 3377.5
Safe Stop Loss - 3352.1
About Used Indicators:
A super-trend indicator is plotted on either above or below the closing price to signal a buy or sell. The indicator changes color, based on whether or not you should be buying. If the super-trend indicator moves below the closing price, the indicator turns green, and it signals an entry point or points to buy.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Gold – False Break Signals More DownsideIn my commentary yesterday, I highlighted the importance of the 3360 support zone. While Gold initially found a bid around this level, the sharp reversal from the 3415 Asian session high suggests a failed breakout.
Key Observations:
• The quick rejection above 3360 now looks like a false break, reinforcing the bearish outlook.
• The recent high around 3415 appears to be a lower high following the 3500 ATH, confirming potential trend weakness.
• Given this structure, a drop back to at least the 3270 support zone seems highly probable.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
GOLD WILL DROP MORE !!HELLO TRADERS
As i can see Gold break 3300 levles which was expected a Strong Support Zone for a new ATH
but its rejected and now we had saw a Trade War Talks on Going with US and China to be compromise soon on Friday we saw NFP results was good for Dollar and now after closing markets under 3260 is a clear sign for us for a more incoming drop in precious metals Gold Long Term View is still bullsih but markets always not move in one direction so it a great trade ida with a very low Risk and higher Rewards we need ur Support and comments Stay Tuned for more Updates ....
Gold short: A Video Walkthrough on AnalysisOver in this video, I went through live on how I analyze the Gold Chart (I did not prepare before hand). Here, I propose that Gold has further to to fall and set 3 different targets and how I derived the targets.
Gold lower timeframe trade setup M3 trade setup little bit late but still market respecting our levels
Down nearly 2% on Wednesday, GOLD still rebounds quickly on riskOANDA:XAUUSD fell nearly 2% on Wednesday (May 7), mainly due to a stronger US dollar and optimism from upcoming trade talks between the United States and China, while the Federal Reserve's "standstill" also added pressure on gold prices. However, it was supported by escalating geopolitical risks.
On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) left the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%, citing increasing uncertainty about the economic outlook and rising risks to both maximum employment and price stability. “Uncertainties about the economic outlook continue to increase,” the FOMC said in its post-meeting statement. “The Committee is concerned about bilateral risks to its dual mandate and sees increasing risks to unemployment and inflation.”
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell maintained a neutral tone, saying the current policy stance was appropriate and the Fed was in no rush to adjust interest rates. He stressed that the Fed was prepared to act “quickly as needed” if circumstances changed, but warned that the Fed’s goals would not be fully achieved if tariffs remained in place.
Powell added that if either side of the dual mandate deviates too much, the Fed will evaluate which policy tool to use to achieve rebalancing.
When asked which mandate, inflation or employment, should receive more attention, he said it was too early to tell.
The market consensus remains that the Fed will not cut rates before July. In a higher interest rate environment, non-interest-bearing gold is often under pressure.
Big news on China-US trade talks
China and the US announced that US Treasury Secretary Besant and US Trade Representative Greer will travel to Switzerland to meet with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng.
The talks are the first since US President Donald Trump imposed comprehensive tariffs on China and have raised optimism that the two largest economies can reach a deal.
On Wednesday, a spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Commerce answered reporters' questions about the high-level economic and trade negotiations between China and the United States. The spokesperson said China has decided to cooperate with the United States. Vice Premier He Lifeng, as head of the China-US economic and trade negotiation delegation, will hold talks with his US counterpart, US Treasury Secretary Benson, during his visit to Switzerland. - Bloomberg -
India-Pakistan tensions spiral after attack, risk of further escalation fuels demand for safe havens
India's airstrike on Pakistan has stoked tensions, raising fears of a full-blown war between the two nuclear-armed nations.
India launched missiles at nine locations in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir early on May 7 in response to a shooting that killed 26 tourists in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, two weeks ago. The Indian Ministry of Defense said its forces struck facilities used by "terrorist groups" to carry out the Pahalgam attack.
The Indian Air Force has mobilized many modern weapons, including Rafale multi-role fighters carrying SCALP-EG stealth cruise missiles and AASM Hammer extended-range guided bombs and cruise missiles. The target coordinates were provided to the forces participating in the campaign by Indian intelligence agencies.
Images released by the media show the moment the series of missiles crashed into the target, creating large fire circles and violent explosions. Pakistan said at least 26 people were killed in this attack. -According to Vnexpress -
Gold is an asset that often benefits first when market risks appear, and India is also a leading gold-using country in the world.
Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
After yesterday's decline, gold continues to receive support from the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement area with horizontal support at $3,350 as noted by readers in yesterday's edition and it is now also aiming for a target of $3,430.
Once gold breaks $3,430 it will be in a position to continue its rally with a target of around (all-time high) in the short term.
Technical factors are completely bullish, from the short-term trend noted by the rising price channel and the long-term trend from the rising price channel. On the other hand, the nearest support is also the EMA21.
The relative strength index RSI is still quite far from the 80 level and the overbought area, indicating that there is still room for growth ahead and gold is likely to continue to increase in terms of momentum in the coming time.
During the day, the main bullish outlook for gold prices in terms of technology will be noted again by the following levels.
Support: 3,371 – 3,350 USD
Resistance: 3,430 – 3,500 USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3440 - 3438⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3444
→Take Profit 1 3432
↨
→Take Profit 2 3426
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3350 - 3352⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3346
→Take Profit 1 3358
↨
→Take Profit 2 3364
GOLD WEEKLY CHART MID/LONG TERM ROUTE MAPHey Everyone,
Quick update on our weekly chart idea, it's been playing out beautifully, helping us track the move down and catch the move back up.
The weekly chart structure is unfolding in line with prior analysis. Price action reached the upper boundary of the ascending Goldturn channel and temporarily broke above it; however, the EMA5 remained confined within the channel, validating the upper trendline as dynamic resistance.
A sustained EMA5 breakout above the channel would have confirmed a potential continuation of the breakout. Currently, price is consolidating within the Goldturn channel, with the 3189 level acting as immediate support. The channel half line of the channel may serve as a stronger swing support area, though price may not retest this level immediately. As the channel continues its upward trajectory, the midline will also rise, potentially aligning with price in future upward movements.
This is the beauty of our Goldturn channels, drawn using weighted averages instead of pure price action. This unique approach helps us clearly identify fake-outs and real breakouts, cutting out much of the noise that usually confuses traders.
Moving forward, we’ll focus on smaller timeframes (1H and 4H) to buy dips off the weighted Goldturns, aiming for clean 30–40 pip moves. Ranging markets are perfect for this style, allowing us to capitalize on quick moves without getting caught in the chop of larger swings.
Thanks again for all your likes, comments, and follows, we really appreciate the support!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
Gold Rally Running Out of Steam? PRZ May Trigger Drop!Gold ( OANDA:XAUUSD ) has hit the targets as I shared with you in yesterday's idae . Will this uptrend of the past 5-6 days continue?
Gold seems to have broken through the Resistance zone($3,387-$3,357) and has been moving in an Ascending Channel for the past 5 days .
In terms of Elliott Wave theory , Gold appears to be completing microwave 5 of the main wave 3 . The end of the main wave 3 can be at the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) .
Also, expect to see a clear Regular Divergence(RD-) between Consecutive Peaks at the Resistance zone($3,434-$3,406) .
I expect Gold to start declining from the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) and at least to the lower line of the ascending channel . This analysis is against the main trend, so pay more attention to money management .
Note: If Gold touches $3,448(Stop Loss(SL)), we can expect more pumps.
Note: If Gold falls below $3,342, we can expect a deeper decline than expected.
Gold Analyze ( XAUUSD ), 1-hour time frame.
Be sure to follow the updated ideas.
Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy; this is just my idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
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