XAUUSD path update as per Daily Timeframe as belowXAUUSD path update as per Daily Timeframe as below
XAUUSD trade ideas
GOLD On June 18, 2025, the U.S. Initial Jobless Claims came in at 245,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous 250,000 and in line with forecasts around 246,000.
Interpretation of the Data:
Current Level:
Claims are stabilizing near the highest levels seen in the past eight months but remain historically low overall, indicating the labor market is slowing but still relatively resilient.
Labor Market Momentum:
The slight decline suggests a modest easing in layoffs but also reflects a gradual loss of labor market momentum, consistent with softer hiring trends seen in recent months.
Seasonal and Technical Factors:
Some elevation in claims is attributed to seasonal factors such as summer school breaks allowing non-teaching personnel to claim benefits, and technical adjustments.
Impact on Markets and Fed Policy:
The Fed views stable but slightly elevated claims as a sign that the labor market is cooling but not weakening sharply.
This supports the expectation that the Fed will hold interest rates steady at 4.25%–4.50% in the June 18TH meeting while monitoring future data for signs of further labor market weakening or inflation pressures.
The data reduces immediate pressure for aggressive rate cuts but keeps the door open for gradual easing later in the year if the labor market softens further.
Federal Reserve June 2025 FOMC Decision and Market Implications
1. Federal Funds Rate Decision
The Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate steady at 4.25%–4.50% at its June 18, 2025 meeting, marking the fourth consecutive meeting with no change in rates.
2. FOMC Economic Projections
The Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), including the "dot plot," was released alongside the rate decision.
Key highlights:
Policymakers continue to project two 25-basis-point rate cuts in 2025, but the timing remains data-dependent and could shift if inflation or labor market conditions change.
The Fed’s economic outlook reflects slower growth, slightly higher unemployment, and persistent inflation risks compared to earlier in the year.
The median forecast for core PCE inflation in 2025 is 2.8%, with GDP growth expected at 1.7%.
The unemployment rate is projected to rise modestly, with the labor market showing signs of gradual cooling.
3. FOMC Statement Highlights
The FOMC statement emphasized a data-dependent approach, noting that while inflation is easing, it remains above the 2% target.
The committee acknowledged mixed economic signals: inflation is moderating, but labor market participation has declined and global uncertainties (tariffs, geopolitical tensions) persist.
The Fed reiterated its commitment to maintaining restrictive policy until there is greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward target.
4. FOMC Press Conference (7:30pm)
Chair Jerome Powell reinforced the Fed’s cautious stance, stating that the committee needs to see more evidence of sustained progress on inflation before considering rate cuts.
Powell highlighted that the timing and pace of future rate cuts will depend on incoming data, particularly regarding inflation and labor market trends.
The press conference also addressed external risks, including the impact of tariffs and geopolitical events on the economic outlook.
5. Market and Economic Implications
Bond Yields and Dollar: The decision to hold rates steady, combined with cautious forward guidance, is likely to keep the 10-year Treasury yield and the U.S. dollar relatively stable in the near term.
Rate Cut Expectations: Markets continue to price in the first rate cut for September 2025, but the Fed’s projections suggest a slower and more data-driven path to easing.
Key Risks: Upside risks to inflation (e.g., from energy prices or tariffs) and downside risks to growth (e.g., from labor market softening) remain central to the Fed’s outlook.
6. Summary Table
Federal Funds Rate 4.25%–4.50% (unchanged) No immediate change in borrowing costs
Rate Cut Projections 2 cuts in 2025 (data-dependent) First cut likely in September
Core PCE Inflation 2.8% (2025 forecast) Above target, supports cautious Fed
GDP Growth 1.7% (2025 forecast) Slower growth outlook
Unemployment Rate Gradual increase expected Labor market cooling
Conclusion
The Fed’s June 2025 decision reflects a steady, cautious approach amid persistent inflation and a gradually cooling labor market. The committee remains data-driven, with future rate cuts contingent on clear evidence of sustained progress toward its inflation and employment goals.
#GOLD # DXY
XAUUSD Hello Traders! 👋
What are your thoughts on GOLD?
Gold has broken above a major resistance level, and price has closed firmly above this zone, signaling strong bullish momentum and a shift in market sentiment.
We expect a brief pullback in the short term, followed by a resumption of the upward move toward higher targets and new highs.
As long as price remains above the identified support level, the bullish outlook remains valid.
Is gold ready for its next leg up after the pullback? Share your thoughts below! 🤔👇
Don’t forget to like and share your thoughts in the comments! ❤️
Gold: Will It Hold or Be Manipulated?Gold: Will It Hold or Be Manipulated?
During this week, the picture of gold did not change much. The price found a strong support area near the 3375 level, and it seems that it will not decrease further without some major news.
The price of gold has recently been dominated only by the war between Israel and Iran, which is in its 6th day without any agreement yet between the US and Iran.
Today we have the FOMC meeting, but in my opinion, the decision that the FED may take regarding the interest rate has no impact on the price of gold, since Gold is a safe asset and the current situation is critical.
We may see speculative moves to lower gold during the FOMC, but under normal conditions, it should not fall given the current geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
It can only fall from any manipulation, because from a fundamental perspective, gold should rise or at least a long pause around our area may be needed.
Key target zones: 3420 | 3450 | 3470 | 3490
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
GOLD → Consolidation. Awaiting the FOMC meetingFX:XAUUSD is consolidating in the range of 3403 - 3373. The problem is that there is news ahead. FOMC and interest rate meeting. The market may react in any unpredictable way...
On Wednesday, the price of gold retreated from $3,400 as sentiment stabilized and investors focused on the upcoming Fed decision. Tensions in the Middle East remain high, but there is less panic in the markets. The Fed is expected to leave rates unchanged. The focus is on forecasts for rates, growth, and inflation. Dovish signals could support gold and weaken the dollar. If the Fed is more cautious due to oil and the conflict in the Middle East, the dollar could rise and gold could fall.
Technical nuances are irrelevant in this case, as price behavior depends on the market's interpretation of fundamental factors.
Resistance levels: 3403, 3420
Support levels: 3373, 3339
BUT! Technically, I would say that there is pressure from the bears. The price is compressing towards the support level of 3373.
The market remains unbalanced in favor of buyers, and it is logical that market makers will be interested in testing the trend support zone or the 3339 level (due to the liquidity pool) before continuing to rise (gold may continue to rise both if rates are lowered and if they remain at the same level. However, the tone of the Fed will play a major role here)
Best regards, R. Linda!
GOLD On June 18, 2025, the U.S. Initial Jobless Claims came in at 245,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous 250,000 and in line with forecasts around 246,000.
Interpretation of the Data:
Current Level:
Claims are stabilizing near the highest levels seen in the past eight months but remain historically low overall, indicating the labor market is slowing but still relatively resilient.
Labor Market Momentum:
The slight decline suggests a modest easing in layoffs but also reflects a gradual loss of labor market momentum, consistent with softer hiring trends seen in recent months.
Seasonal and Technical Factors:
Some elevation in claims is attributed to seasonal factors such as summer school breaks allowing non-teaching personnel to claim benefits, and technical adjustments.
Impact on Markets and Fed Policy:
The Fed views stable but slightly elevated claims as a sign that the labor market is cooling but not weakening sharply.
This supports the expectation that the Fed will hold interest rates steady at 4.25%–4.50% in the June 18TH meeting while monitoring future data for signs of further labor market weakening or inflation pressures.
The data reduces immediate pressure for aggressive rate cuts but keeps the door open for gradual easing later in the year if the labor market softens further.
#GOLD
GOLD 3HR PYTHUnemployment Claims Data Context
Forecast: 246,000
Previous: 248,000
The weekly initial jobless claims report is a key indicator for the Federal Reserve, signaling the current state and momentum of the U.S. labor market.
Fed Interpretation: Greater Than Forecast
Indication: A figure above 246,000 suggests the labor market is softening more than expected.
Fed Response:
The Fed would view higher-than-forecast claims as a sign of rising layoffs and potential weakening in employment growth.
This outcome increases concern about the durability of the economic expansion and may raise the likelihood of future interest rate cuts, especially if the trend persists.
The Fed would likely emphasize caution in its policy statement and may signal greater willingness to ease policy if labor market weakness continues.
Fed Interpretation: Less Than Forecast
Indication: A figure below 246,000 signals a stronger-than-expected labor market.
Fed Response:
The Fed would interpret lower-than-forecast claims as evidence that the labor market remains resilient, with fewer layoffs and ongoing job creation.
This outcome reduces the urgency for immediate rate cuts and supports the case for holding rates steady, especially if inflation remains above target.
The Fed is likely to maintain a cautious, data-dependent stance, awaiting further evidence before considering policy changes.
Federal Funds Rate Decision Outlook
Expected Outcome:
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold the federal funds rate steady at 4.25%–4.50% during the June 18, 2025 meeting.
Supporting Factors:
Inflation is moderating but remains above target.
Labor market data, including unemployment claims, shows stability without overheating.
Economic uncertainties, including trade policies, encourage a cautious approach.
Market Odds:
There is a near 100% probability of no rate change today, with markets focusing on the Fed’s forward guidance and economic projections for clues on future rate moves.
The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the current federal funds rate range of 4.25%–4.50%, reflecting a balanced approach amid moderating inflation and steady labor market conditions.
Market participants will closely watch the FOMC statement, economic projections, and press conference for any shifts in tone that could influence future rate expectations and market volatility.
GOLD Unemployment Claims Data Context
Forecast: 246,000
Previous: 248,000
The weekly initial jobless claims report is a key indicator for the Federal Reserve, signaling the current state and momentum of the U.S. labor market.
Fed Interpretation: Greater Than Forecast
Indication: A figure above 246,000 suggests the labor market is softening more than expected.
Fed Response:
The Fed would view higher-than-forecast claims as a sign of rising layoffs and potential weakening in employment growth.
This outcome increases concern about the durability of the economic expansion and may raise the likelihood of future interest rate cuts, especially if the trend persists.
The Fed would likely emphasize caution in its policy statement and may signal greater willingness to ease policy if labor market weakness continues.
Fed Interpretation: Less Than Forecast
Indication: A figure below 246,000 signals a stronger-than-expected labor market.
Fed Response:
The Fed would interpret lower-than-forecast claims as evidence that the labor market remains resilient, with fewer layoffs and ongoing job creation.
This outcome reduces the urgency for immediate rate cuts and supports the case for holding rates steady, especially if inflation remains above target.
The Fed is likely to maintain a cautious, data-dependent stance, awaiting further evidence before considering policy changes.
Federal Funds Rate Decision Outlook
Expected Outcome:
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold the federal funds rate steady at 4.25%–4.50% during the June 18, 2025 meeting.
Supporting Factors:
Inflation is moderating but remains above target.
Labor market data, including unemployment claims, shows stability without overheating.
Economic uncertainties, including trade policies, encourage a cautious approach.
Market Odds:
There is a near 100% probability of no rate change today, with markets focusing on the Fed’s forward guidance and economic projections for clues on future rate moves.
The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the current federal funds rate range of 4.25%–4.50%, reflecting a balanced approach amid moderating inflation and steady labor market conditions.
Market participants will closely watch the FOMC statement, economic projections, and press conference for any shifts in tone that could influence future rate expectations and market volatility.
GOLD 3HR LINE CHARTUnemployment Claims Data Context
Forecast: 246,000
Previous: 248,000
The weekly initial jobless claims report is a key indicator for the Federal Reserve, signaling the current state and momentum of the U.S. labor market.
Fed Interpretation: Greater Than Forecast
Indication: A figure above 246,000 suggests the labor market is softening more than expected.
Fed Response:
The Fed would view higher-than-forecast claims as a sign of rising layoffs and potential weakening in employment growth.
This outcome increases concern about the durability of the economic expansion and may raise the likelihood of future interest rate cuts, especially if the trend persists.
The Fed would likely emphasize caution in its policy statement and may signal greater willingness to ease policy if labor market weakness continues.
Fed Interpretation: Less Than Forecast
Indication: A figure below 246,000 signals a stronger-than-expected labor market.
Fed Response:
The Fed would interpret lower-than-forecast claims as evidence that the labor market remains resilient, with fewer layoffs and ongoing job creation.
This outcome reduces the urgency for immediate rate cuts and supports the case for holding rates steady, especially if inflation remains above target.
The Fed is likely to maintain a cautious, data-dependent stance, awaiting further evidence before considering policy changes.
Federal Funds Rate Decision Outlook
Expected Outcome:
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold the federal funds rate steady at 4.25%–4.50% during the June 18, 2025 meeting.
Supporting Factors:
Inflation is moderating but remains above target.
Labor market data, including unemployment claims, shows stability without overheating.
Economic uncertainties, including trade policies, encourage a cautious approach.
Market Odds:
There is a near 100% probability of no rate change today, with markets focusing on the Fed’s forward guidance and economic projections for clues on future rate moves.
The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the current federal funds rate range of 4.25%–4.50%, reflecting a balanced approach amid moderating inflation and steady labor market conditions.
Market participants will closely watch the FOMC statement, economic projections, and press conference for any shifts in tone that could influence future rate expectations and market volatility.
GOLD 3HR OANDA Unemployment Claims Data Context
Forecast: 246,000
Previous: 248,000
The weekly initial jobless claims report is a key indicator for the Federal Reserve, signaling the current state and momentum of the U.S. labor market.
Fed Interpretation: Greater Than Forecast
Indication: A figure above 246,000 suggests the labor market is softening more than expected.
Fed Response:
The Fed would view higher-than-forecast claims as a sign of rising layoffs and potential weakening in employment growth.
This outcome increases concern about the durability of the economic expansion and may raise the likelihood of future interest rate cuts, especially if the trend persists.
The Fed would likely emphasize caution in its policy statement and may signal greater willingness to ease policy if labor market weakness continues.
Fed Interpretation: Less Than Forecast
Indication: A figure below 246,000 signals a stronger-than-expected labor market.
Fed Response:
The Fed would interpret lower-than-forecast claims as evidence that the labor market remains resilient, with fewer layoffs and ongoing job creation.
This outcome reduces the urgency for immediate rate cuts and supports the case for holding rates steady, especially if inflation remains above target.
The Fed is likely to maintain a cautious, data-dependent stance, awaiting further evidence before considering policy changes.
Federal Funds Rate Decision Outlook
Expected Outcome:
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold the federal funds rate steady at 4.25%–4.50% during the June 18, 2025 meeting.
Supporting Factors:
Inflation is moderating but remains above target.
Labor market data, including unemployment claims, shows stability without overheating.
Economic uncertainties, including trade policies, encourage a cautious approach.
Market Odds:
There is a near 100% probability of no rate change today, with markets focusing on the Fed’s forward guidance and economic projections for clues on future rate moves.
The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the current federal funds rate range of 4.25%–4.50%, reflecting a balanced approach amid moderating inflation and steady labor market conditions.
Market participants will closely watch the FOMC statement, economic projections, and press conference for any shifts in tone that could influence future rate expectations and market volatility.
GOLD 1HRUnemployment Claims Data Context
Forecast: 246,000
Previous: 248,000
The weekly initial jobless claims report is a key indicator for the Federal Reserve, signaling the current state and momentum of the U.S. labor market.
Fed Interpretation: Greater Than Forecast
Indication: A figure above 246,000 suggests the labor market is softening more than expected.
Fed Response:
The Fed would view higher-than-forecast claims as a sign of rising layoffs and potential weakening in employment growth.
This outcome increases concern about the durability of the economic expansion and may raise the likelihood of future interest rate cuts, especially if the trend persists.
The Fed would likely emphasize caution in its policy statement and may signal greater willingness to ease policy if labor market weakness continues.
Fed Interpretation: Less Than Forecast
Indication: A figure below 246,000 signals a stronger-than-expected labor market.
Fed Response:
The Fed would interpret lower-than-forecast claims as evidence that the labor market remains resilient, with fewer layoffs and ongoing job creation.
This outcome reduces the urgency for immediate rate cuts and supports the case for holding rates steady, especially if inflation remains above target.
The Fed is likely to maintain a cautious, data-dependent stance, awaiting further evidence before considering policy changes.
Federal Funds Rate Decision Outlook
Expected Outcome:
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold the federal funds rate steady at 4.25%–4.50% during the June 18, 2025 meeting.
Supporting Factors:
Inflation is moderating but remains above target.
Labor market data, including unemployment claims, shows stability without overheating.
Economic uncertainties, including trade policies, encourage a cautious approach.
Market Odds:
There is a near 100% probability of no rate change today, with markets focusing on the Fed’s forward guidance and economic projections for clues on future rate moves.
The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the current federal funds rate range of 4.25%–4.50%, reflecting a balanced approach amid moderating inflation and steady labor market conditions.
Market participants will closely watch the FOMC statement, economic projections, and press conference for any shifts in tone that could influence future rate expectations and market volatility.
Gold within known rangeTechnical analysis: Descending Channel on Hourly 4 chart was discontinued as there was an attempt on the same chart to develop Ascending Channel and extend the Intra-day’s relief rally above #3,402.80 benchmark. My action plan remains intact as I will continue operating with Scalp Sell and Buying orders as long as #3,362.80 - #3,402.80 zone holds (so far it hasn't been crossed again to the upside or downside) and reversal towards #3,417.80 Resistance in extension if #3,402.80 benchmark gets invalidated. Consider the Lower High’s Upper zone test on the Daily chart’s scale, while Hourly 4 chart turned Bearish on my key indicators sessions ago. As expected, yesterday's session Daily candle closed below the #3,395.80 Resistance, widely above both of the Daily chart’s MA’s, turning flat for the session (isolated within Neutral rectangle however). That is a strong indication that the market is attempting to Price the Bottom here (temporary or not), which just so happens to be a Lower High's Lower zone within Daily chart’s Ascending Channel. It is no surprise that today's Hourly 4 chart’s candle is attempting to engage Bearish sequence so far and since its on Bearish Technicals (invalidated Ascending Channel), I consider it the most optimal re-Buy entry for a Short-term recovery back towards #3,288.80 - #3,392.80 Resistance belt or above (representing last week’s High’s).
My position: Even though I mentioned remaining on sidelines, I used #3,388.80 - #3,392.80 as an excellent re-Buy zone and closed my set of Scalping orders within #3,393.80 - #3,398.80 and remained off for the session. It is indeed clash of Bearish Technicals and War news (Fundamentally Bullish) as I will keep my Trading activity to minimum, protecting my capital for now.
GOLD 30MIN Unemployment Claims Data Context
Forecast: 246,000
Previous: 248,000
The weekly initial jobless claims report is a key indicator for the Federal Reserve, signaling the current state and momentum of the U.S. labor market.
Fed Interpretation: Greater Than Forecast
Indication: A figure above 246,000 suggests the labor market is softening more than expected.
Fed Response:
The Fed would view higher-than-forecast claims as a sign of rising layoffs and potential weakening in employment growth.
This outcome increases concern about the durability of the economic expansion and may raise the likelihood of future interest rate cuts, especially if the trend persists.
The Fed would likely emphasize caution in its policy statement and may signal greater willingness to ease policy if labor market weakness continues.
Fed Interpretation: Less Than Forecast
Indication: A figure below 246,000 signals a stronger-than-expected labor market.
Fed Response:
The Fed would interpret lower-than-forecast claims as evidence that the labor market remains resilient, with fewer layoffs and ongoing job creation.
This outcome reduces the urgency for immediate rate cuts and supports the case for holding rates steady, especially if inflation remains above target.
The Fed is likely to maintain a cautious, data-dependent stance, awaiting further evidence before considering policy changes.
Federal Funds Rate Decision Outlook
Expected Outcome:
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold the federal funds rate steady at 4.25%–4.50% during the June 18, 2025 meeting.
Supporting Factors:
Inflation is moderating but remains above target.
Labor market data, including unemployment claims, shows stability without overheating.
Economic uncertainties, including trade policies, encourage a cautious approach.
Market Odds:
There is a near 100% probability of no rate change today, with markets focusing on the Fed’s forward guidance and economic projections for clues on future rate moves.
The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the current federal funds rate range of 4.25%–4.50%, reflecting a balanced approach amid moderating inflation and steady labor market conditions.
Market participants will closely watch the FOMC statement, economic projections, and press conference for any shifts in tone that could influence future rate expectations and market volatility.
Weekly Analysis on GOLDAs of the moment i am current on a buy trade position. Looking forward for next week trading session. If price run in my favor then that's the time i will manage this trade and look for possible scale in position.
Geopolitical Hedging vs Monetary Policy: Gold Trading TipsGold prices continued this week's correction trend during Friday's Asian trading session, once falling near the one-week low. Although there was a slight rebound afterward, the overall trend remained in a weak adjustment pattern. This correction was mainly affected by the hawkish attitude of the Federal Reserve. At this week's policy meeting, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged, and the dot plot showed that only two rate cuts are expected by the end of 2025, while the rate cut expectations for 2026 and 2027 have been postponed. Even so, the US Dollar Index fell after hitting a weekly high, which provided some support for gold prices. In addition, growing trade concerns and escalating tensions in the Middle East have enhanced safe-haven demand, limiting the decline in gold prices.
From the 4-hour chart of gold, the current bullish momentum is dominant, and the resistance near 3375-3380 is clear. The pullback of gold prices has not broken through the upward channel for the time being, and the medium-to-long-term upward structure remains intact. If the Middle East conflict escalates or trade risks intensify, it may trigger a rebound and repair rally in gold prices. The daily chart closed in a doji star pattern, with prices retesting the middle 轨 of the Bollinger Bands, maintaining a volatile downward rhythm. The hourly chart shows significant downward characteristics, and a bearish strategy can be maintained before the resistance is broken. The resistance range is 3375-3380, and the support range is 3340-3345.
XAUUSD
sell@3070-3075
tp:3360-3350
Investment itself is not the source of risk; it is only when investment behavior escapes rational control that risks lie in wait. In the trading process, always bear in mind that restraining impulsiveness is the primary criterion for success. I share trading signals daily, and all signals have been accurate without error for a full month. Regardless of your past profits or losses, with my assistance, you have the hope to achieve a breakthrough in your investment.
Gold Sell Setup – 18/06/2025📉 Gold Sell Setup – 18/06/2025 📉
Chart shows a clear descending channel formation on the XAUUSD pair.
🔸 Sell Limit Zone: 3411 to 3414
🔸 Stop Loss: 3425
🔸 Expected Reaction: Price is currently at the upper boundary of the descending channel, suggesting potential resistance and reversal.
🟡 RSI is approaching overbought territory, adding confluence for a possible bearish move.
⚠️ Note: Wait for proper rejection confirmation before executing the trade. Trade safe!
GOLD → Bear pressure. Area of interest: 3340–3306FX:XAUUSD continues to decline under pressure from sell-offs. However, the situation is interesting overall, as there is conflicting data and unexpected price behavior is surprising the market...
On Tuesday, gold is trying to regain the $3,400 level after pulling back from highs, but it is still facing selling pressure and returning to $3,377. The market reaction to the $3,377 level is quite weak, and if the price starts to stick to support, this will lead to a further decline. The dollar is strengthening as a safe-haven currency, holding back gold's growth. The markets are focused on the outcome of the Fed and Bank of Japan meetings, as well as US retail sales data. Any dovish signals from the Fed could support gold and weaken the dollar.
Technically, on D1, gold is returning below the 3382 level (selling zone) and testing 3377. The reaction to the false breakout of support is weak, and the price is forming a pre-breakdown consolidation relative to 3377. There are clear areas of interest that could lure the price before the news. For example, 3343, 3306, 3245.
Resistance levels: 3382, 3403.
Support levels: 3377, 3339, 3320
The bearish structure will be broken if the price strengthens to 3403 and consolidates above that level. This will reinforce buyers' expectations, which could lead to growth. At the moment, I would expect two scenarios: price consolidation within 3377-3403. But technically, the chart shows that there is bearish pressure in the market. The price continues to storm the support level of 3377, which may not hold up against another retest. A break 3377 could lead to a fall to the areas of interest at 3339-3306.
Best regards, R. Linda!
Gold is challenging ATHGold meets resistance at 3,440 on Friday, despite a surge in geopolitical risks amid the Iran-Israel war. We expect the market to have a correction before rising to all-time highs.
The ideal ATH level is 3,650
What we want to see to achieve ideal level ?
The market rebounded from the POI level driven by a strong bull signal.
The market break and retest the last high at 3,500.
If the market reverses sharply after breaking 3,500, all the above scenarios will be invalid and a false breakout pattern will occur.
Fundamental level that you should pay attention:-
The Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision will be announced next week, and investors expect Powell to keep interest rates unchanged.
The Iran-Israel war could intensify geopolitical risks in the Middle East. If tensions escalate further, we expect gold price to surge.
The Federal Circuit will appeal Trump's tariffs as an abuse of presidential power on July 31, 2025
XAUUSD Long Setup – Retest of Broken Structure & Safe-Haven FlowGold has pulled back to retest a strong former resistance (now support) zone around $3,385–$3,390. This level aligns with a previous breakout and marks the neckline of an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern. The pair is now showing bullish structure with back-to-back continuation patterns (bull flags), suggesting further upside potential.
Given escalating geopolitical risk (Iran-Israel strikes, Trump-led evacuation urgency), slowing Fed cut expectations, and softening inflation-adjusted yields, gold remains in demand.
🔍 Technical Analysis:
Structure: Higher highs and higher lows maintained.
Support Zone: $3,385–$3,390 (retest zone) – bulls stepping back in.
Targets:
TP1: $3,451
TP2: $3,470
TP3: $3,495 (new local high)
Stop Loss: Below $3,369 (recent low)
Pattern Context: Bull flags continue to form and break bullish – reinforcing trend.
🧠 Fundamental Context (June 17):
Bullish Drivers:
Middle East escalation → safe haven bid surging (Iran missile launches, Israeli retaliation, US political chaos).
Fed on pause → real yields are subdued, favoring non-yielding assets like gold.
Convexity & bond volatility rising → investors hedging with hard assets (confirmed via CME sentiment reports).
Risks:
Sudden peace deal or ceasefire.
Unexpected US CPI spike → reawakens rate hike fears.
📅 Key Events to Watch:
Fed speeches (confirmation of dovish tone)
Any ceasefire or major diplomatic development
Oil movement (energy risk spillovers)
THE KOG REPORTTHE KOG REPORT
In last week’s KOG Report we said we would want the lower level red box to be tested and rejected in order to give us the move upside into that 3330-35 region where we wanted to monitor the price for the short. We managed to get a pin point move, however, we had to exit the short trades early due to the support level holding us up. We then continued to follow Excalibur and the red box indi’s which were suggesting higher pricing and by the end of the week we had completed all our bullish above target levels, plus Excalibur trade targets and LiTE again performed at 100% accuracy.
A phenomenal week in Camelot, not only on Gold but the numerous other pairs we trade, analysis and post on.
So, what can we expect from the week ahead?
For this week we can expect some gaps on open which is going to make it difficult due to skewed data. We will however stick with the red box levels and the tools we have to make a plan for the two scenarios we may see potential of.
Scenario one:
Price opens and gaps upside, we’ll be looking for the levels of 3455-60 for a potential reaction in price, if achieved, an opportunity may be available to short there back down into the 3450, 3443 and 3435 levels.
Scenario two:
If we do open and gap downside, we’ll look for the levels of 3430-23 to hold us up, and if achieved, an opportunity to long there back up into the 3450-5 level and in extension of the move 3465 may be available.
It’s a difficult one again as no one knows how the market is going to open and what is going to happen. So we’ll update traders as much as we can during the day and the week with KOG’s bias of the day and red box target levels
KOG’s bias of the week:
Bearish below 3465 with targets below 3425, 3420, 3410 and 3406
Bullish on break of 3465 with targets above 3477, 3485, 3492, 3495 and 3503
Red Boxes:
Break above 3435 for 3443, 3448, 3465 and 3476 in extension of the move
Break below 3420 for 3410, 3406, 3397, 3385 and 3380 in extension of the move
Many of our followers and traders have seen the power of the red boxes, Imagine this on your own TV screen, 4H for swing trading, 1H for day trading and 15min for scalping. Any pair on any chart 23hrs a day. Add to that the Knights indicator giving you swing points, key levels and retracement levels and our custom volume indicator telling you when to long, when to short and when to stand back from your trades.
LEARN AND GENERATE YOUR OWN SIGNALS. You don't need any of us to guide you.
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As always, trade safe.
KOG
Potential Scenarios (Neutral Outlook):1. Overall Trend (Short-Term):
From early June onward, the trend has shown a clear upward movement, especially after June 11, suggesting bullish momentum.
However, in the most recent candles (last 24–36 hours), there is a consolidation/sideways movement, potentially indicating a pause or reversal.
2. Key Support and Resistance Zones:
Resistance Zone: Around 3,460–3,470 (the recent high before price pulled back).
Support Zone: Near 3,380–3,390, previously tested before the last push upward.
3. Price Structure & Patterns:
There was a strong rally from June 11–13, followed by a pullback and consolidation.
This could be forming a bullish flag or pennant, which often precedes a continuation upward if confirmed by volume or breakout above resistance.
4. Recent Candlestick Behavior:
Current candles are small-bodied with wicks on both sides — this suggests indecision or low momentum, often found before a breakout or reversal.
🧭 Potential Scenarios (Neutral Outlook):
Bullish Continuation: A breakout above the recent high (~3,460) could resume the uptrend toward 3,500+.
Bearish Reversal: A drop below the 3,380 support area could trigger a correction toward 3,340 or lower.
📌 Note: Watch for upcoming economic events marked on the chart — especially those with the U.S. flag, as USD news often significantly affects XAU/USD.
HelenP. I Gold may correct to support zone and then rebound upHi folks today I'm prepared for you Gold analytics. After rebounding from the trend line, XAUUSD began to grow steadily within the rising structure, confidently pushing through local resistance and breaking above the previous support 2 area. This breakout was backed by strong bullish momentum, with the price clearly holding above the broken level, turning it into a support base. Following that surge, the price entered a short-term consolidation, trading within the upper boundary of the chart, just above the 3400 level. This area now acts as a crucial support zone, and the market is currently hovering slightly above it after a local peak. Given the strength of the recent impulse and the confirmation of previous resistance as support, I expect a brief correction to the support zone before a continuation of the bullish move. That’s why I set my current goal at 3470 points — the next potential resistance area where the price may encounter renewed selling pressure after the rally continues. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
Disclaimer: As part of ThinkMarkets’ Influencer Program, I am sponsored to share and publish their charts in my analysis.
Excellent Profits throughout yesterday's sessionAs discussed throughout yesterday's session commentary: "I have engaged multiple re-Buy Scalp orders on #3,412.80 Bottom and closed them on #3,420.80 and engaged Swing order on #3,423.80 which was closed on #3,4335.80 which finalized last week in excellent way."
My position: As Gold delivered #3,388.80 - #3,392.80 Support zone test throughout yesterday's session, I have used that opportunity to Buy Gold with both Swing and Scalp orders (#3,388.80 Swing) and #4 aggressive Scalp orders from #3,390.80 towards #3,396.80 - #3,398.80 finishing the session in excellent Profit. I will not engage for today's session as Gold is Technically Bearish and Fundamentally Bullish which displays very mixed / unpredictable Trading as I will remain on sidelines, Highly satisfied with my results.
Keep in mind that as long as #3,377.80 Support is preserved, Bull structure is preserved and Price-action will push for #3,400.80 benchmark test or above. If however #3,377.80 gets invalidated and market closes below it, #3,352.80 benchmark will be tested.
