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XAUUSD trade ideas

Gold Slips as Ceasefire Eases SafeHaven Demand Bearish Below3339Gold Drops on Israel-Iran Ceasefire Gold prices declined as safe-haven demand eased following President Trump’s announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. Despite the pullback, gold remains up nearly 23% year-to-date, supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainty driven by Trump’s tariffs, and robust central bank purchases. Market Focus: All eyes are now on U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony, which may offer fresh insights into potential near-term interest rate cuts. Technical Outlook: Gold remains under bearish pressure as long as it trades below the 3329–3339 pivot zone. A confirmed 4H candle close below 3329, or especially 3309, would further validate downside momentum toward the support range. Support Levels: 3302, 3281, 3256 Resistance Levels: 3364, 3393 A clear break below 3302–3281 would open the path toward deeper bearish continuation.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by SroshMayi
2
GOLD ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone, Once again our levels deliver the magic!! Yesterdays update, we stated that we got the move into 3393 just like we analysed for the first level of swing and that we will now look for ema5 to cross and lock 3372 or 3393 to confirm direction. 🔄 Update: No ema5 lock above 3393 confirmed the rejection into 3372 followed with ema5 cross and lock opening the full swing range test into 3353. We got the test and the perfect bounce back into 3372. A move into 3393 will complete the full swing range. We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up. We will continue to buy dips using our support levels, taking 20 to 40 pips. As stated before, each of our level structures gives 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back-test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid-term swings and trends. 🌀 The swing ranges give bigger bounces than our weighted levels - that's the difference between the two. BULLISH TARGET 3440 - DONE EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3340 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGETS 3463 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3463 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 3483 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3483 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 3508 BEARISH TARGETS 3418 -DONE EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3418 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET 3393 - DONE EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3393 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE 3372 - DONE 3353 - DONE EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3353 WILL OPEN THE SECONDARY SWING RANGE 3330 3306 As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it! Mr Gold GoldViewFX
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Goldviewfx
18
Gold price short term recovery 3366⭐️GOLDEN INFORMATION: Kansas City Federal Reserve President Jeff Schmid stated on Wednesday that the central bank has sufficient time to assess the impact of tariffs on inflation before making any decisions regarding interest rates. His remarks suggest a cautious approach and align with Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments from the previous day. Chair Powell reaffirmed the view that there is no urgency to alter monetary policy, emphasizing a patient, data-driven approach as the Fed monitors economic developments. This less dovish tone from Fed leadership may help cap downside pressure on gold in the near term. Meanwhile, money markets are fully pricing in two rate cuts by the end of 2025, with a September move seen as more probable than one in July—although expectations for a July cut have slightly increased since last week. ⭐️Personal comments NOVA: Gold price recovered and continued to accumulate, pay attention to the GAP 3366 area at the beginning of the week, selling pressure is still maintained. ⭐️SET UP GOLD PRICE: 🔥SELL GOLD zone: 3366- 3368 SL 3373 TP1: $3358 TP2: $3345 TP3: $3330 🔥BUY GOLD zone: $3303-$3301 SL $3296 TP1: $3315 TP2: $3328 TP3: $3340 ⭐️Technical analysis: Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable BUY order. ⭐️NOTE: Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well - take the number of lots that match your capital - Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account - Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Nova-Scalper
1
USD under pressure ahead of PCE—gold holds $3,300The euro has reached its highest level since October 2021, driven in part by commitments from European leaders to increase NATO defence spending. The swing factor for the euro dollar in the shorter term is the possibility of US rate cuts. Critical for this will be US inflation data, starting with tomorrow's PCE report. If tariffs fail to significantly lift inflation, the case for a July rate cut strengthens—adding further pressure on the dollar. That weakness is also supporting gold. XAUUSD is above $3,300. Recent price action has formed a potential symmetrical triangle on the daily chart—a structure that can precede a breakout. A move above $3,400 could signal renewed bullish momentum.
BLACKBULL:XAUUSD
by BlackBull_Markets
Extra, pre market — June 25, 2025Global financial markets mounted a broad-based relief rally as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East eased significantly following a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. The U.S.-brokered truce, while fragile, has triggered a visible return to risk appetite across equity, fixed income, and currency markets. U.S. President Donald Trump, despite playing a central role in halting the conflict, publicly rebuked both Israel and Iran for violations, urging Israel via Truth Social to “BRING YOUR PILOTS HOME, NOW!” This unusual stance appears to have stabilized sentiment across asset classes, at least for now. U.S. equity markets responded favorably to the geopolitical de-escalation. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged by +507.24 points (+1.2%) to close at 43,089.02, while the Nasdaq 100 added +334.19 points (+1.5%) to end at 22,190.52. The S&P 500 rose +67.01 points (+1.1%), settling at 6,092.18 (Screenshot_1.png). The Russell 2000 also climbed +1.1%, driven by renewed confidence in domestic cyclicals. Volatility sharply dropped, with the CBOE VIX Index falling -11.9% to 17.48, indicating a lower perceived risk premium. Sector rotation was pronounced. Technology (XLK) led with a +1.8% gain to $247.24, closely followed by Financials (XLF) at +1.5%, and Communications (XLC) at +1.3%. In contrast, Energy (XLE) sank -1.3% to $84.91, weighed down by falling oil prices, and Consumer Staples (XLP) edged down slightly by -0.1% (Screenshot_1.png). Investors appeared to rotate out of defensive sectors into higher-beta growth plays, signaling a risk-on tone. The sector divergence was matched by style factor dispersion. On a relative basis, Private Equity (PSP/SPY) outperformed all other factors with a +1.2% daily move, followed by IPOs (IPO/SPY) at +0.9% and Hedge Funds (GURU/SPY) at +0.6% (Screenshot_6.png). Among equity styles, Small-Cap Growth (IJT/SPY) posted a +0.6% relative return, while Value (IVE/SPY) and Low Volatility (USMV/SPY) underperformed at -0.3% and -0.6% respectively. This points to growing investor confidence in higher-risk, higher-reward assets, likely fueled by reduced macro stress. The relief was also evident in global bond markets. U.S. Treasury yields declined modestly as demand for duration returned. The 10-year yield (US10Y) closed at 4.298%, down from earlier June highs, while the 2-year (US2Y) yield dropped to 3.797% (Screenshot_5.png). European yields followed suit: Germany’s 10Y Bund yield dropped to 2.144%, and the UK Gilt yield hovered at 4.475%. Notably, Japanese 10Y yields have increased to 1.404%, up 22.88% YTD, signaling shifting monetary dynamics in Asia. Credit markets remained resilient. On a year-to-date basis, Local Emerging Market Bonds (EMLC) are outperforming with an 11.3% return, followed by USD Emerging Market Debt (EMB +6.9%), and Convertibles (CWB +5.2%). U.S. Corporate bonds continued to benefit from carry and spread compression, with High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) both showing solid inflows and positive performance (Screenshot_4.png). Fixed income appears to be balancing carry with renewed duration appeal amid easing geopolitical risk and softer Fed expectations. Commodities, particularly energy, experienced sharp reversals. WTI Crude Oil (CL1) and Brent Crude (CO1) fell 6.0% and 6.1% respectively, closing at $64.37 and $67.14 (Screenshot_7.png). This move reflects the de-escalation in the Strait of Hormuz risk and was compounded by Trump's call to "DRILL, BABY, DRILL!!!"—signaling a political push for increased U.S. production. Gold, meanwhile, retreated slightly to $3,328.22 (-0.1%), though remains up 28.4% YTD, having benefited from haven flows during the height of the conflict. Silver saw a similar retreat to $35.74 (-0.5%), though retains a +23.6% YTD gain. In foreign exchange, the U.S. dollar weakened across major pairs as safe-haven demand declined. The EUR/USD rose to 1.1606 (+8.5% YTD), while the GBP/USD reached 1.3612 (+7.6% YTD). In contrast, the USD/JPY fell to 145.75, marking a -8.7% YTD decline (Screenshot_10.png). The reversal in dollar strength aligns with broader global reflation trades and a moderation in Fed hawkishness, supported by Chair Powell’s comments that the U.S. economy remains “solid” and that tariff impacts may be more muted than feared. On a global equity level, YTD returns tell a diverse story. Latin America continues to dominate, with Argentina (ARGT +54.2%), Brazil (EWZ +22.6%), and Mexico (EWW +22.0%) leading gains (Screenshot_9.png). Among developed markets, Canada (EWC +27.5%) and Germany (EWG +18.7%) outshine, whereas Turkey (TUR -25.2%) and India (PIN -0.75%) lag meaningfully. In Asia, South Korea (EWY +14.8%) and Taiwan (EWT +13.6%) saw notable performance, bolstered by strength in tech exports and domestic policy easing. Looking ahead, the sustainability of this rally depends on several unresolved variables. First, the Middle East ceasefire, while currently holding, is inherently fragile. Any renewed hostilities could spike volatility and reverse energy price trends rapidly. Second, the Fed remains in a delicate position. Markets are currently pricing in a prolonged pause, but Trump’s pressure on the central bank and shifting economic data could alter expectations quickly. Finally, watch for China’s re-entry into Iranian oil markets following Trump’s announcement that Beijing “can now continue to purchase oil from Iran.” This move could reignite trade friction or trigger secondary sanctions, especially if EU or U.S. energy security concerns are heightened. In conclusion, the combination of geopolitical relief, Fed ambiguity, and a rotation into riskier assets has created a fertile environment for short-term bullish momentum. However, macro fragility persists. Investors should remain tactically optimistic but structurally cautious, especially in sectors sensitive to energy prices and interest rates. Keeping a diversified allocation across risk assets, commodities, and high-quality fixed income remains advisable in this unpredictable macro regime.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by Buranku
XAUUSD Sell Setup – 4H Timeframe📍 Entry: 3,328 ❌ Stop Loss: 3,351 🎯 Take Profit 1: 3,273 🎯 Take Profit 2: 3,217 🎯 Take Profit 3: 3,151 --- 🧠 Trade Analysis: The market has reacted strongly from a key resistance zone, forming a potential bearish structure on the 4-hour timeframe. Current price action suggests seller strength and a shift in momentum toward the downside. This setup offers a well-defined short opportunity with a clear stop loss and three take profit levels. The risk-to-reward ratio is favorable for swing traders targeting medium-term moves. Confirmation of bearish continuation can strengthen this idea. Monitor price behavior and volume closely near entry level. --- ⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Use proper risk management and conduct your own research before executing any trade.
FXOPEN:XAUUSDShort
by Mr_Chartist
4
The downward trend is strong.The easing of the situation in the Middle East weakens the demand for safe havens The direct trigger for the decline in gold prices was the news that Israel and Iran announced a ceasefire. This news quickly cooled the market's risk aversion, and the attractiveness of gold as a traditional safe-haven asset weakened. In the past few weeks, the military confrontation between Israel and Iran once pushed up the safe-haven buying of gold, but with the conclusion of the ceasefire agreement, the market quickly turned to risk preference mode, global stock markets rose, and the US dollar fell. This change in market sentiment directly led to the decline in gold prices. This decline will still intensify, pay attention to your trading orders, I will continue to update this article, I wish you a smooth trading.
PYTH:XAUUSDShort
by J-Prof
1
Opportunities only come to those who ambush in advanceAfter Trump announced that Israel and Iran had reached a comprehensive ceasefire agreement, the market's risk aversion sentiment cooled significantly, and the price of gold once plummeted by more than $30. Although the stability of the ceasefire agreement is in doubt, the rebound in risk appetite dominates the market trend, with stock markets rebounding, oil prices falling, and demand for safe-haven assets falling. Powell will deliver a semi-annual monetary policy testimony, and the market is paying attention to his statement on the timing of the July rate cut. At present, the internal differences of the Federal Reserve on interest rate cuts have intensified. If Powell sends a signal that the number of interest rate cuts this year is limited, it may strengthen the rebound of the US dollar and suppress gold prices; on the contrary, if the stance is dovish, it may ease the downward pressure on gold prices. In the short term, the fading of geopolitical risks and the warming of risk appetite are the main reasons for the decline in gold prices, but the weakening of the US dollar and the potential dovish tendency of the Federal Reserve still provide support. In the medium and long term, global economic uncertainty, geopolitical risks and expectations of the Federal Reserve's loose policy still constitute structural support for gold. From a technical perspective, the gold daily moving average system is in an intertwined state, and the forces of bulls and bears are relatively balanced. The current short-term resistance above is around 3320-3333, which is an important psychological level. If an effective breakthrough is achieved or the upside space is opened, the support below will focus on the 3285-3295 line, which is the lower edge of the May oscillation platform. If it falls below, the pressure of the correction may increase. The loss of the middle track in the 4-hour chart further confirms the short-term weak structure and provides technical support for the downward trend. It is recommended to go long on the pullback near 3285-3295. At present, gold continues to fall in line with the trend.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TP_Daniel
Report - 25, June 2025Ceasefire Fragility and Unprecedented Presidential Posture President Donald Trump has publicly rebuked both Israel and Iran in an attempt to preserve a ceasefire brokered after 12 days of escalating conflict. His unfiltered criticism — including an unusually blunt quote characterizing both sides as having “fought so long... they don’t know what the fuck they’re doing” — signals rising frustration with maintaining stability in a region long considered a geopolitical powder keg. While initially celebrating the ceasefire and claiming victory over Iran’s nuclear capabilities, Trump’s stance shifted dramatically in response to renewed missile exchanges. Notably, after Iran fired three missiles post-ceasefire (causing no casualties), Israel retaliated by targeting an Iranian radar station, prompting a direct command from Trump via social media: “ISRAEL. DO NOT DROP THOSE BOMBS… BRING YOUR PILOTS HOME, NOW!” Despite ongoing minor violations, both sides have reportedly heeded Washington’s demands, with Israel claiming its military objectives were fulfilled. The ceasefire currently holds, but remains vulnerable to provocation or miscalculation. Strategic Realignment: U-Turn on Iran Sanctions and Oil Trade In a major policy reversal, Trump has authorized China to resume importing oil from Iran — effectively dismantling months of sanctions enforcement against Chinese refiners and shipping intermediaries. This shift is tied to two strategic aims: Stabilize energy markets post-conflict to mitigate inflationary spikes. Incentivize Iran's continued adherence to the ceasefire. However, this decision directly contradicts Trump’s earlier "maximum pressure" stance and introduces credibility risk for U.S. sanctions policy. Analysts remain cautious, noting that formal sanction relief has not been legislatively confirmed. If sustained, this move could: Provide Tehran with critical cash flow (~1.5M bpd exports) Reduce U.S. leverage in future nuclear negotiations Empower China in energy diplomacy as a balancing counterweight NATO Dynamics: Trump Demands 5% Defense Spending Trump’s NATO agenda has drawn both praise and backlash. In a leaked message, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte credited Trump with forcing European nations to commit to raising defense spending to 5% of GDP: “You will achieve something NO American president in decades could get done.” While major powers like Germany, France, and the UK are reportedly complying, Spain has refused — risking a public rift. Trump has cast doubt on Article 5 commitments by questioning its interpretation, though he reiterated support for allies “as friends.” This episode illustrates the dual nature of Trump’s strategy: A transactional, cost-focused defense model Willingness to weaponize public embarrassment for leverage Market Response: Relief Rally, Oil Retreats, and Risk-On Rotation Markets cheered the ceasefire with a strong rotation into risk assets and away from geopolitical hedges: Brent crude fell 5.8% to $67.37/barrel, reflecting de-escalation and confidence in uninterrupted Strait of Hormuz access. S&P 500 hit its highest level since February, rising 1.1%. Nasdaq jumped 1.4% on renewed tech appetite. Stoxx Europe 600 gained 1.1%, while FTSE 100 lagged (flat) due to energy exposure (BP –4.8%, Shell –3.7%). Currency and bond markets responded accordingly: USD Index –0.5% as safe-haven demand waned GBP surged to $1.365, highest since 2022 Gold fell 1.6% to $3,314/oz — its sharpest drop in a month US 10-year Treasury yields rose to 4.30%, on stronger economic sentiment and Powell’s congressional testimony
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by Buranku
Gold Pullback to Resistance – Bearish Setup in PlayOANDA:XAUUSD is staging a modest technical rebound after a strong breakdown, currently retesting the confluence zone of resistance and EMA on the 1H chart. This area around 3,351 USD marks a key selling region where bearish momentum may resume. On the macro front, traders are eyeing the upcoming Core PCE data — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. A higher-than-expected reading could boost the US dollar and reinforce downward pressure on gold prices. Technically, the recent breakdown followed by a retest of structure suggests bearish continuation. If gold fails to break above resistance, it may drop first toward the 3,304 USD zone (TP1) and potentially extend to the key support near 3,250 USD (TP2). All eyes should be on how price reacts to resistance. A confirmed rejection could offer a high-probability short opportunity.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Edward_TradingFX
1
XAUUSD 1H | Harmonic AB=CD | Sentiment Reversal in PlayGold has formed a clean Harmonic AB=CD Pattern, with price currently sitting at the PRZ (Potential Reversal Zone). This aligns with technical expectations for a possible bullish shift. 🗓️ The recent sharp sell-off in Gold was heavily influenced by the ongoing Iran-Israel conflict, triggering fear, panic, and speculative selling. Despite Gold's fundamentally bullish bias as a safe-haven asset, market sentiment overpowered fundamentals in the short term. 🔍 On the 30min LTF, we have a crystal-clear Bullish Divergence on RSI, adding further confluence that downside momentum is weakening, and a corrective reversal may unfold from this area. Bias: ✅ Harmonic AB=CD complete — PRZ active ✅ LTF Bullish Divergence (30m) confirmed ✅ Price action showing exhaustion at key support ✅ Expecting potential bullish reaction and relief rally ⚠️ As always, waiting for confirmation with proper risk management. Market remains sensitive to geopolitical headlines. 💡 DYOR — Do Your Own Research before executing trades.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by awaisulabdeen
DeGRAM | GOLD dipped below the supply zone📊 Technical Analysis ● Price has broken the inner rising-trend support and is sliding inside a fresh descending channel; the current pull-back is stalling in the 3 350-3 365 supply zone, where the old trend-line and a June distribution block overlap, printing consecutive lower highs. ● The channel’s width and the purple flag just completed project to 3 295 support (May pivot + mid-channel); a close beneath it exposes the outer rail / March swing low around 3 245. 💡 Fundamental Analysis ● Hawkish Fed comments have pushed 2-yr yields back above 4.8 % and lifted the DXY, while CFTC figures show a third straight week of long liquidation, curbing bullion bids. ✨ Summary Fade 3 345-3 360; sustained trade under 3 320 targets 3 295 ➜ 3 245. Short bias void on an H1 close above 3 365. ------------------- Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with a like. Thanks for your support!
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by DeGRAM
3
XAUUSD Daily Sniper Plan – Monday, June 23, 2025Current Price: 3368.76 Trend: Bearish on H4 | Corrective on H1 | Weak Bullish Attempt on M15 Market Context: Gold is consolidating under EMA pressure after FOMC. Price is pinned inside a key flip zone, awaiting Monday’s fundamental triggers. 🔸 HTF Overview (D1, H4, H1) 📰 Macro + Economic Context – Week of June 23–28: This is a high-impact week for USD with Fed speeches, inflation, and growth data. Monday opens with caution: Monday, June 23 🟠 FOMC Member Waller Speaks 🔴 Flash Manufacturing & Services PMI 🟠 Existing Home Sales Tuesday, June 24 🔴 Fed Chair Powell Testifies 🟠 CB Consumer Confidence 🟠 Richmond Manufacturing Index Wednesday, June 25 🔴 Powell Testimony (Day 2) 🟠 New Home Sales Thursday, June 26 🔴 Final GDP q/q 🔴 Unemployment Claims 🟠 Durable Goods Orders 🟠 Pending Home Sales Friday, June 27 🔴 Core PCE Price Index 🟠 Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment 📌 Monday is lighter in impact, but PMI data and Waller’s speech may spark the week’s directional bias. Avoid trading blindly into PMI spikes. H4 Structure & Bias: Bearish trend intact: Lower High = 3418, Lower Low = 3311 EMAs (21/50/100) aligned downward — price capped below 3380 RSI still under 60 = no bullish momentum Rejection zone remains valid at 3406–3420 (H4 OB) Strong demand expected at 3340–3352 and extreme at 3310–3288 🔸 LTF Precision (M30, M15) Price compressing around 3365–3372 RSI around 56 → indecision No bullish HH above 3380 = still within bearish control EMA flattening → prepare for trap setups around NY open 🧭 Trade Scenarios 🔻 Sell Zone – 3406–3420 H4 OB, FVG top, liquidity above 3405 Entry: 3412 SL: 3426 TP1: 3312 TP2: 3288 TP3: 3265 🧠 Wait for sweep or strong bearish reaction — no early entries. ⚠️ Flip Zone – 3360–3380 No-trade zone: EMA cluster + mid-FVG Only use for confirmations, not entries 🟢 Buy Zone – 3340–3352 OB + demand + Fib retracement Entry: 3348 SL: 3334 TP1: 3448 TP2: 3472 TP3: 3490 🟢 Buy Zone – 3310–3288 Below LL sweep (3311) Deep liquidity + OB demand Entry: 3298 SL: 3280 TP1: 3365 TP2: 3405 TP3: 3440 📍 Key Structural Levels – June 23 Level Type Role 3460 Bull Trap Limit Irrational spike area 3445 FOMC Unfilled wick – trap zone 3426 Sell Zone Risk protection above OB 3418 H4 LH Confirmed bearish structure 3410 OB Midpoint Micro-rejection inside OB 3395 Previous HH Inducement target 3384 FVG Top Minor LTF rejection 3360–3380 ⚠️ Flip Zone MA/FVG compression – avoid entries 3352 OB entry edge Buy Zone 1 upper limit 3340 OB base Buy Zone 1 key level 3311 H4 LL Confirms bear structure 3300 Round Level Psychological + liquidity 3288 OB base Final demand structure zone 3265 Final TP Bearish extension only ✅ Final Action Plan 📉 Stay bearish below 3380 unless a clean HH + OB support forms ⚠️ Avoid trading inside 3360–3380 flip zone during NY PMI data 🛒 Longs valid only from 3340 or 3310 with confirmation (RSI, PA, OB) 🧠 Focus on structure integrity and clean OB rejections only 💬 Will you fade the 3412 OB or wait for the sniper bounce at 3348? 🔔 Follow and 🚀@GoldFxMinds for premium breakdowns, macro updates, and real-time sniper execution guidance. 🔹 Disclosure: As part of Trade Nation’s Influencer Program, we receive monthly compensation for using their charts. GoldFxMinds
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by GoldFxMinds
XAUUSD Daily Sniper Plan – June 24, 2025“Snipers wait. Structure tells the story.” Hello traders! The market is stuck between the FOMC high at 3452 and the confirmed low at 3340. Price is compressing under H1 supply and above a key liquidity pocket. Here's your full plan with all sniper zones — now including a decision zone for intraday confirmation. 📰 Macro + Fundamental Context Powell Testimony + multiple FOMC speeches today → high potential for dollar-driven volatility. Inflation concerns and hawkish tone expected → short-term gold bearish pressure unless structure reclaims 3415+. Smart money likely hunting liquidity both below 3340 and above 3400. 🔸 HTF Structure Summary (D1 → H4 → H1) D1: Consolidation between 3452 and 3340. No new BOS. H4: LL formed at 3340. LH not confirmed. Market is compressing under resistance. H1: CHoCH + BOS confirmed. Current price sits in mid-range. 🔍 Sniper Entry Zones 🟥 Sell Zone 1: 3382–3395 H1 supply zone with previous rejection. Includes order block + FVG. Valid for new short entries if price returns and rejects. 🟥 Sell Zone 2: 3406–3420 High-risk spike zone from FOMC. Only valid during fast, news-driven price movement. Not a default entry unless confirmed rejection. 🟨 Decision Zone (Flip Area): 3360–3372 This is the key intraday flip level. If price stays below, sell zones remain valid. If price closes above, short bias is invalid and market may aim higher. Use this zone to confirm bias before entering from either side. 🟩 Buy Zone 1: 3335–3345 Strong demand under equal lows. OB + small imbalance on M15. Valid for intraday long setups if confirmed with bullish price action. 🟦 Buy Zone 2: 3305–3285 H4 demand zone with major liquidity below. Deep reversal area — only valid if price breaks 3340. Smart money may be waiting here. 📌 Key Levels Summary Zone Type Price Range Explanation 🔺 Premium OB 3450–3480 Daily supply zone 🟥 Sell Zone 1 3382–3395 Active H1 supply 🟥 Sell Zone 2 3406–3420 FOMC wick inducement 🟨 Flip Zone 3360–3372 Decision area — confirm bias 🟩 Buy Zone 1 3335–3345 Demand under equal lows 🟦 Buy Zone 2 3305–3285 H4 demand + deep liquidity 📣 Final Notes 📌 The market is at a critical moment. The flip zone (3360–3372) will decide tomorrow’s control: bear continuation or deeper retracement. Watch price at the zone. Let the structure speak. Trade only where the logic is clean. 👁 Good luck in the market tomorrow, traders! — GoldFxMinds 🟨 Disclosure: I am part of TradeNation’s Influencer Program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in educational work.
TRADENATION:XAUUSD
by GoldFxMinds
Gold Take All Stop losses,Are You Ready To Sell To Get 300 Pips?Here is my 1H Gold Chart and this is my opinion , the price opened this week with massive wick to upside to take all stop losses and then moved to downside very hard and aggressive , we have a very good Res that we sell from it last week 3377.00 , it`s still strong and forced the price many times to respect it so it still my fav level to sell it again today if the price touch it and give me a good bearish price action to confirm the entry and we can targeting 300 pips at least . if we have a daily closure above my res then we will think about buying instead of selling , but until now i`m looking to sell it from the level i mentioned .
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by FX_Elite_Club
11
Report - June 24, 2025Geopolitical Flashpoint: U.S.–Iran–Israel Conflict Reaches Temporary Pause After weeks of escalating military engagement, President Trump has declared a phased cease-fire between Iran and Israel, effective June 25. While Israel has not officially confirmed, both sides reportedly agreed to halt attacks if met with mutual restraint. Iran launched 14 missiles toward Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar on Monday in retaliation for the U.S. bombing of its nuclear sites; 13 were intercepted with no casualties. This symbolic attack was designed as a “face-saving” gesture, avoiding a broader conflict or disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil chokepoint. Market Impact: Oil dropped sharply (WTI -7.2%, Brent -6.8%) as war premium unwound. Equities rallied (S&P 500 +1%, Dow +0.9%) on relief from escalation. Risk-off unwound modestly with global equities rising in Asia (Nikkei +1.1%, Hang Seng +1.8%). Strategic Implications: A durable cease-fire is far from guaranteed. Israel may not comply long-term. Iran’s restraint signals desire for diplomatic off-ramp, supported by Qatari mediation. U.S. avoided further retaliation, citing the limited scope of Iran’s action as justification. Trump’s Pressure on the Fed and the ‘Powell Trap’ President Trump has intensified attacks on Fed Chair Jerome Powell, demanding sharp rate cuts (targeting 1–2%). With inflation still near 2.6% Core PCE and tariffs starting to filter through consumer prices, the Fed risks its credibility if it yields to political pressure. Fed Dynamics: Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller (Trump appointees) support July cuts due to labor concerns. Powell testifies before Congress this week, expected to defend central bank independence. Market Reaction: 10-Year yield fell to 4.32%, 2-Year to 3.83%. FedWatch: 22.7% chance of July cut, up from 14.5% pre-Iran strike. Strategic Outlook: Fed faces a no-win scenario: cut and risk inflation, or hold and face political firestorm. Political pressure ahead of Powell’s February 2026 term expiry is rising—Trump may be shaping a post-Powell Fed regime. U.S. Housing Market Update: Rising Inventory, Stalled Buyers May existing-home sales rose +0.8% MoM (vs. -1.3% est.) but remain near record lows (4.03M annualized). Inventory rose +6.2% MoM, +20.3% YoY, yet affordability remains a major obstacle. Median price: $422,800 (near record), +1.3% YoY. Mortgage rates >6.5%, limiting buyer participation. Price cuts surged (1 in 4 listings), showing seller capitulation. Homes are sitting longer (27 days on market vs. 24 a year ago). Implications: Affordability gap persists: $100k income now affords just 37% of listings vs. 65% in 2018. Selective regional strength: Midwest/Northeast stronger than Sunbelt/Southwest. Energy Sector: Fragile but Stabilized for Now Iran’s deliberate avoidance of energy infrastructure has led to a collapse in crude prices post-spike. However, risks remain: Strait of Hormuz still vulnerable; closure would cut ~20% of global oil supply. WTI pulled back to $75.67, Brent at $78.89—still ~10% higher than pre-June levels. Trump publicly pressuring oil markets to keep prices low, signaling political discomfort with oil shocks during re-election year. Energy Equities: Exxon -2.6%, Halliburton -6.8% — oil-linked stocks lagged. European oil names may rally if prices stay elevated: 7.8% EPS boost with +20% oil (Panmure).
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Buranku
Extra infoGeopolitical Gold Risk: EU Alarmed Over U.S. Custodianship Rising geopolitical volatility and former President Trump’s escalating rhetoric against the U.S. Federal Reserve have sparked renewed European concerns over national gold reserves stored in the U.S., especially in Germany and Italy. Both nations hold the second and third-largest gold reserves globally (3,352 and 2,452 tonnes respectively), with a significant portion—over $245 billion in total—custodied at the New York Fed. Lawmakers and public advocacy groups across the political spectrum in both countries are urging repatriation of gold to domestic vaults, citing Trump’s erratic policy stances and potential interference with central bank independence. The Bundesbank continues to defend New York's strategic value, while Italy remains silent. A growing number of central banks globally are reportedly shifting or planning to shift gold home as a precautionary move. Japan’s Political Shifts: LDP Faces Voter Blowback Over Inflation Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) suffered a historic electoral defeat in Tokyo’s local assembly elections, signaling growing voter discontent over surging food prices and stagnant wages. The LDP lost 8 of its 30 seats, surrendering its top position to Governor Yuriko Koike’s regional party, Tomin First. With upper house elections on July 20, this loss raises risks of further political fragmentation. The populist right-wing Sanseito party gained seats for the first time, showcasing a shift toward fringe movements. PM Ishiba’s government also faces diplomatic and economic pressure as Trump threatens tariffs on Japanese imports. Tokyo’s results act as a warning sign that inflation and trade anxieties are materially influencing voter behavior. U.S.-Korea Defence Diplomacy: Rolls-Royce Eyes GE Replacement As South Korea reassesses its KF-21 fighter jet engine partner, UK officials are lobbying aggressively for Rolls-Royce to replace GE Aerospace, citing U.S. export restrictions that limit Seoul’s ability to sell jets internationally. The KF-21’s export prospects to Indonesia and the UAE are reportedly at risk due to American national security clauses. Rolls-Royce proposes a joint development model to de-risk the engine program. However, entrenched U.S.–Korea defense ties, including Hanwha’s integration with U.S. military platforms, complicate this pivot. The U.K. seeks not only defense industrial collaboration but strategic geopolitical alignment with Seoul as a hedge against U.S. protectionism. Energy Sector on Edge: Majors Withdraw Staff Amid Escalation Risks European energy giants BP, TotalEnergies, and Eni have begun evacuating foreign staff from Iraqi fields, citing risk of Iranian retaliation after U.S. strikes on Tehran’s nuclear facilities. Operations remain intact, but local authorities confirm precautionary withdrawals, with Total reportedly pulling 60% of its expats. Rumaila, Zubair, and southern Iraqi fields are proximate to Iranian territory and vulnerable to missile or proxy militia attacks. Analysts caution that Iran could exploit asymmetric tactics via regional militias, threatening key infrastructure without directly engaging U.S. forces. Shell, also present via Basra Gas, declined comment. The withdrawal underscores the fragile security balance as military posturing continues to escalate. Oil Markets Volatile: Trump Demands Surge in U.S. Production Following Brent crude’s spike to $81.40 and a subsequent intraday fall to $76.90, President Trump urged the Department of Energy to “DRILL, BABY, DRILL!!!” to stabilize prices. His public messaging emphasizes a fear that elevated oil costs play into enemy strategies, pressuring energy firms and OPEC+ to expand output. So far, Middle East supply has not been disrupted, and no damage to the Strait of Hormuz—which handles 21 million barrels/day—has been recorded. However, analysts from S&P, SEB, and RBC warn of continued upside risk if Iran or its proxies target tankers, refineries, or pipelines. Several tankers have already changed course or anchored to avoid chokepoints, signaling preemptive market caution. Financial Markets and Central Bank Tensions Trump’s repeated interventions into Fed policy, combined with tariff-driven inflation concerns, have created a highly politicized environment for monetary policy. He has publicly demanded immediate rate cuts to 1–2%, pressuring Powell amid signs of internal division among Fed governors. With inflation nearing the Fed's 2% target but geopolitical risks rising, Powell must testify to Congress this week and defend the institution's independence. A shift in Fed leadership post-2026 under a Trump administration may fundamentally reshape U.S. monetary credibility if dovish, politically loyal appointees take over. European Fixed Income Competition: Vanguard Cuts Fees As competition heats up in Europe’s bond ETF market, Vanguard has slashed fees on 7 of its 15 European fixed income ETFs. The changes reduce average expense ratios to 0.11%, part of a broader push to gain share from leaders like BlackRock and State Street. This move aligns with Vanguard’s U.S. fee overhaul earlier this year, aimed at democratizing access to fixed income. European investors increasingly demand lower-cost bond solutions as the bond market now exceeds equities in size, yet remains more opaque and less efficient. The fee cut should help catalyze inflows from cost-sensit
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by Buranku
Gold Holds the Line – Will It Break Above $3,500?Gold continues to maintain its long-term uptrend after a technical pullback toward dynamic support around $3,325, aligning with both the EMA34 and the rising trendline. If price rebounds from this zone and breaks above the key resistance between $3,460 and $3,500, a strong rally toward $3,600 could unfold in the medium term. However, upcoming U.S. economic data—including GDP and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, Core PCE—will be critical in determining whether gold has the momentum for a breakout or remains in consolidation. Are you holding gold, or waiting on the sidelines?
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Edward_TradingFX
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