Range-bound Trading amid Geopolitical and Policy GamesGold Market Brief: Range Bound Trading Amid Geopolitical and Policy Games
I. Core Drivers
- Geopolitical Hedge Cooling: Iran's signal to restart nuclear talks has weakened risk aversion, triggering intraday gold pullbacks, though Middle East tensions remain a wild card.
- Fed Policy Expectations: The Fed kept rates unchanged this week, with Powell's "data-dependent" stance fueling 60% odds of a September rate cut. Dovish signals may push gold above $3,400, while hawkish cues could drag it to $3,350.
II. Key Technical Levels
Supports:
- $3,380: 4-hour MA30 + June 17 low ($3,375.5), bolstered by the ascending channel lower 轨 (lower trendline).
- $3,350: Daily MA10 + June 12 congestion zone, a psychological pivot for policy betting.
Resistances:
- $3,400: Intraday high + 4-hour MA10 + descending trendline forming "triple resistance".
- $3,450: June 13 high converging with weekly Fibonacci 61.8% retracement ($3,448).
III. Short-term Outlook & Focus Points
- Range-bound Trend: Gold likely to oscillate between $3,350-$3,450, with breakthroughs hinging on escalated geopolitics or stronger rate cut bets.
- Catalyst Events: Monitor June 19 Fed meeting, June 21 CPI data, and Middle East developments as potential range breakers.
XAU/USD Trading Strategy for Today
buy@3370-3380
tp:3395-3405
sell@3395-3405
tp:3385-3375
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XAUUSD trade ideas
Lingrid | GOLD corrective Pullback Presents Potential Long EntryOANDA:XAUUSD is retracing from a double top inside the resistance area near 3450 but remains above the key 3375 support and the ascending channel structure. Price is testing the confluence of the upward trendline and prior breakout level, creating a possible bullish rebound setup. A successful bounce here could ignite momentum toward the 3450–3470 zone.
📈 Key Levels
Buy zone: 3370–3375
Sell trigger: loss of 3360 support
Target: 3450
Buy trigger: breakout above 3400 and hold with strong candle close
💡 Risks
A close below the upward channel could trigger deeper sell-off
Failure to reclaim 3400 may trap bulls in consolidation
Macro catalysts (Fed, CPI) could override local structure
Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩💻
Middle East tensions rise; gold may hit new highs next weekThe Middle East situation has continued to escalate over the weekend, indicating that gold may witness a rally at Monday's opening. On Friday morning, risk aversion surged rapidly, pushing the gold price to around 3,444, followed by a pullback. During the European session, the price quickly retreated to around 3,408 before rebounding—our strategy to go long near 3,410 at the time proved profitable. In the U.S. session, gold mounted a second rally, peaking at around 3,446 before entering a pullback and consolidation phase. However, from a fundamental perspective, the overall trend remains bullish; thus, buying on dips remains the primary trading approach.
From a 4-hour technical view, immediate support lies in the 3,405–15 range, with key support at the recent resistance-turned-support zone near 3,375–80. When gold pulls back, traders should focus on longing near these levels. The critical bullish pivot for short-term traders has shifted up to the 3,345–50 zone; as long as gold holds above this level on the daily time frame, the dip-buying strategy should be maintained.
XAUUSD
buy@3405-3415
tp:3340-3360
Investment itself is not the source of risk; it is only when investment behavior escapes rational control that risks lie in wait. In the trading process, always bear in mind that restraining impulsiveness is the primary criterion for success. I share trading signals daily, and all signals have been accurate without error for a full month. Regardless of your past profits or losses, with my assistance, you have the hope to achieve a breakthrough in your investment.
Analysis of the Short-Term Downtrend in Spot Gold Prices AgainstBased on the attached chart and extracted text information, here is a graphical analysis and trend determination of the spot gold price against the US dollar (Gold Spot / US Dollar).
Trend Analysis:
- General Trend: Based on the available data, there appears to be a short-term downtrend. The decline in price and confirmation of selling levels indicate strong selling pressure. However, this trend must be confirmed using other technical indicators.
- Price Range: The chart indicates a broad price range between approximately $3,000 and $3,500 over the past several months. This indicates significant volatility in the price of gold.
Support and Resistance Levels:
- Support Levels:
- The $3,219.944 level represents an important support level.
- The $3,100 and $3,000 levels may also act as support levels if the downtrend continues.
- Resistance Levels:
- The $3,353.820 level (the current buy level) could act as an immediate resistance level.
- Higher levels in the $3,400-$3,500 range represent potential resistance levels if the trend reverses.
- Monitoring Support Levels: The aforementioned support levels should be monitored to identify potential buying points in case of a bounce.
Based on the available data, there is a short-term downward trend in the spot gold price against the US dollar, starting from these areas:
- Entry price of the deal: $3,355.00
- Stop loss price for the trade: $3,381.00
- Target price for the deal TP1: $3,320.00
- Target price for the deal TP2: $3,280.00
- Target price for the deal TP3: $3,219.00
Potential Gold LongWith Volatile Markets and constant War Developments
XAU/USD has experienced higher than NORMAL volatility.
Given price can RESPECT this short term trendline, we may have a Target of 3,500 in sight.
2 weeks of Bullish Momentum now followed by a beautiful retracement & Strong Wicks below.
SL - 3,355
TP 1 - 3,440
TP 2 - 3,470
TP 3 - 3,496
Gold out look Daily Timeframe Analysis
Gold continues to respect its medium to long-term bullish structure on the daily timeframe. Despite the ongoing geopolitical tensions and war-driven headlines, price action has experienced a corrective pullback from the key resistance area near 3430.
Importantly, gold appears to be forming a minor bullish channel within a broader consolidation zone suggesting that price is currently in a range-bound correction phase nested inside a higher-timeframe uptrend. The channel structure reflects healthy consolidation, not a trend reversal.
Chart Reference: Daily Chart
3-Hour Timeframe (Intraday Structure)
The 3H chart shows price recently reacting from the bullish channel support, confluenced with a demand zone and the Fibonacci golden zone indicating a strong technical base. A new fresh demand zone has been created as a result of this reaction.
Price is currently holding above the minor intraday structure at 3365.
If this level holds, short-term targets are 3377 – 3380.
A confirmed break and retest above 3380 opens up the next leg toward 3400 – 3404 resistance.
Chart References:
Fundamental Backdrop
A combination of macroeconomic and sentiment-based indicators support the bullish bias:
COT (Commitment of Traders) data shows institutional positioning remains net long on gold.
Retail sentiment is skewed towards short, which historically supports upside moves.
Seasonal bias for gold typically favors strength during mid-to-late Q2.
US economic indicators show signs of cooling:
Manufacturing PMI & Services PMI have slowed.
Retail sales remain soft.
Inflation readings suggest disinflationary pressure.
These factors collectively weaken the US dollar, adding upside pressure to gold.
Downside Risk / Bearish Scenario
If price fails to hold above 3365 and decisively breaks below the current channel, we could see a deeper correction toward the 3300–3280 area of interest which aligns with a major support, daily bullish trendline, and longer-term reaccumulation zone.
15-Minute Timeframe (Microstructure Insight)
On the 15M chart, gold rallied from the channel base and demand zone, but has since entered a consolidation phase between 3365 and 3372. A Fair Value Gap (FVG) lies just beneath the 3365 pivot — suggesting the potential for a liquidity sweep before any continued move to the upside.
This setup is often a precursor to an aggressive expansion move, particularly during high-volume sessions (London/New York overlap).
Summary
Bias: Bullish (while above 3365)
Immediate Support: 3365
Short-Term Targets: 3377 → 3380 → 3404
Key Resistance: 3430
Bearish Invalidations: Below 3365
XAUUSD Trading Signals: Buy Dips at 3335-3345 Amid Bear Trap💡 Trading Framework In-Depth Analysis:
The Fed's policy statement failed to stir volatility (markets had fully priced in dovish expectations 💨);
Weekly market pattern: Asian sessions consistently saw rallies 📈, followed by profit-taking pullbacks in subsequent sessions 📉;
Tactical entry logic: Use intraday highs in Asian trading as resistance references for long positions 🎯.
📊 Technical Validation & Risk Anchors
⚠️ Key Warning: Geopolitical bullish signals ignored → classic "bear trap" characteristics (bear trap 🚫);
⏳ Timing Strategy: Asian session highs form ideal resistance levels—recommend entering on pullbacks to the 38.2% Fibonacci support level 🎯.
⚡️⚡️⚡️ XAUUSD Precision Trading Signals ⚡️⚡️⚡️
🚀 Long Entry Range: 3335-3345 (stop loss can be set below 3325)
🚀 Take-Profit Target Range: 3360-3370 (partial profit-taking at first target 3360 recommended)
📢 Service Value-Added Notes
✅ Core trading signals updated daily in the morning (validated across 4-hour/daily double-timeframes);
✅ Refer to signal logic at any time during trading for sudden situations 🧭 (with historical win-rate statistics attached);
🌟 Wishing you smooth trading Next week — seize pullback opportunities to position 👇
Gold analysis - Bullish outlook in play!Hey traders! 👋
Let’s break down what’s happening on Gold (XAU/USD).
On the higher timeframe, Gold remains in a strong bullish trend. Price is currently rising from the May 14th low and appears to be targeting the all-time high around 3500.120.
Zooming in, we can see a minor pullback unfolding, likely a setup for the next leg higher. I’ve marked the minor low (A) and minor high (B) to define our current dealing range. Connecting these with a Fibonacci retracement, price has tapped into the discount zone, showing signs of potential accumulation.
On the lower timeframe, there’s a clear market structure shift, suggesting momentum could soon flip back to the upside.
📌 My plan:
Buy now at 3354
Stop Loss: 3312.11
Take Profit Targets:
– TP1: 3400.00
– TP2: 3452.00
– TP3: 3501.14
⚠️ Note: There's still a possibility of a deeper dip toward 3031, so I’m factoring that into my risk management.
What’s your take on this setup? Drop your thoughts in the comments below. Let’s discuss!
XAU/USD) Back support level Read The captionSMC trading point update
Technical analysis of XAU/USD (Gold Spot vs U.S. Dollar) – 2H Timeframe:
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XAU/USD Bearish Rejection from Resistance – Short-Term Sell Setup
Key Observations:
1. Rejection from Upper Channel & Resistance Zone:
Price was rejected sharply after touching the upper boundary of the ascending channel and the newly established resistance zone (~3400–3420).
A strong bearish candle confirms selling pressure at the top.
2. Support Retest in Progress:
The price is currently descending toward the EMA 200 and the KYY support zone (approximately 3343–3348).
The previous bounce originated from this level, making it a significant retest zone.
3. EMA 200 as Confluence:
The 200 EMA (currently at 3346.92) aligns with the support zone, increasing the likelihood of a bounce or at least temporary pause in bearish momentum.
4. RSI Bearish Signal:
RSI has dropped below 50, confirming a momentum shift toward the downside.
Still above oversold territory, suggesting more downside room.
---
Trade Idea:
Bias: Bearish (Short-Term)
Entry Zone: Around 3390–3400 (confirmed rejection area)
Target Zone: 3348 – 3343 (KYY support + EMA 200)
Stop Loss: Above 3425 (just above resistance zone)
Mr SMC Trading point
---
Summary:
Gold has faced a clear rejection at a key resistance zone within an ascending channel, and is now targeting the EMA 200 and previous structural support. Short opportunities could be considered toward the 3343–3348 zone, with RSI and price action supporting the move.
Please support boost 🚀 this analysis)
XAUUSD EXPECTATIONS UPSIDE MOVES🔍 Key Observations:
1. Current Price: 3353
2. Previous Demand Zone / Order Block:
The area between 3347–3354 is a clear H4 order block/demand zone, which price has tapped multiple times and is currently reacting from.
3. Support Confirmation:
This zone has acted as a support multiple times in the past.
Price wicked below it but immediately pushed back above → indicating buyer interest.
4. Market Structure:
Price made a higher high near 3445.
Now it's making a retracement or pullback into the order block zone.
If this zone holds, we could see a reversal to the upside.
---
🔮 Expectations:
If 3347–3354 holds:
Expect a bounce back up toward 3375, 3400, and possibly 3440+.
GOLD Sell Setup – Bearish Reversal from Supply ZoneGold (XAUUSD) is trading within a well-defined supply zone around the 3369 – 3370 area. After multiple failed attempts to break above this resistance, price is showing signs of reversal. The structure indicates a bearish move is likely, especially if the market sustains below the sell zone.
---
🔍 Technical Analysis:
Sell Zone: 3369 – 3370
The price has entered a strong resistance zone and is currently rejecting this level, indicating selling pressure.
Stop Loss: 3428.42
A break above this level would invalidate the bearish bias.
Take Profit Levels:
TP1: 3324.81
TP2: 3246.26
TP3: 3167.64
Target Zone: Around 3120, which aligns with a previous demand area on the chart.
Market Behavior:
The lower highs and resistance rejection pattern on the 4H chart suggests weakness in bullish momentum. If price breaks below the most recent support, it may trigger acceleration toward lower targets.
---
📌 Trade Plan:
Enter short positions around 3369
Set SL above 3428
Aim for stepwise profit-taking on each support break
Risk-to-reward ratio remains favorable with proper lot size
---
Conclusion:
Gold is respecting a critical resistance zone, and a bearish continuation is expected if price holds below it. Patience and confirmation on lower timeframes will strengthen the setup. Ideal for swing traders targeting medium-term downside.
Precise short orders in 3370-3375 area are launched!Gold has been volatile recently, with intraday fluctuations ranging from 1 to 200 US dollars, which greatly increases the difficulty of operation for retail investors. On the surface, there are many opportunities, but there are only a few real big market opportunities. If you miss the rhythm, you can only watch your funds shrink. Remember that risk management is crucial.
From the 4-hour analysis of gold, there are repeated resistances from bulls before the downward break; once it breaks down, the market will go further down, and the focus below is 3340. The upper short-term is 3370-3380, and the important resistance is 3400. Only by breaking through the bulls can the rebound continue. In terms of operation, sell high and buy low, and pay attention to the breakthrough!
There are too many long orders accumulated at the current high level of gold, and the market will not rise sharply easily. The current international situation is so tense, and gold is still slowly declining. In this situation, it is difficult to rebound sharply.
Operational suggestions: For short orders above, focus on the layout of the 3370-3375 area, strictly set a stop loss, target more than 20 points, control risks, and follow the trend.
Analysis of the Latest Market Trends of Gold's LowThe gold price experienced a sharp decline after a gap-up opening on Monday this week, followed by a doji doji bullish candle for sideways correction on Tuesday, and a generally range-bound trend on Wednesday. However, after the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision was announced on Wednesday, the gold price dipped to around 3,362, where the low point coincided with the support from the 10-day moving average. Technically, the role of the 10-day moving average support at 3,350 has now become a key focus. If this support holds effectively, the gold price is expected to maintain a consolidative pattern. In terms of upper resistance, the 5-day moving average currently at around 3,390 will act as a suppression for the gold price's upward movement, with further resistance contingent on the breakthrough of 3,405.
The 4-hour chart shows no significant changes either, as the lower Bollinger Band has not widened, indicating strong support at 3,360, which still suggests a bullish trend. Notably, however, during the consecutive rebounds, the gold price has failed to break through the resistance of the middle Bollinger Band, implying a relatively weak mid-term range-bound trend for gold. For intraday trading, a strategy of "shorting at highs and longing at lows" is recommended, pending a breakout from the trend momentum to create trading space. Intraday, long positions are favored above the support at 3,350.
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Trading Strategy:
buy@3350-3355
TP:3375-3380
sell@3375-3380
TP:3350-3355
Gold — Awaiting Clarity at the Neckline (FRL Setup)“Trading is capital management under uncertainty. The red horizontal zone is the zone of uncertainty. Neckline levels are rubicons — thresholds where the market becomes clear to us. Don’t fear uncertainty. Learn to wait for the moment when everything becomes clear.”
Right now, gold is forming an upward trend. But as we know, every trend consists of impulses and corrections — and each of those is a trend of its own.
According to Fractal Reversal Law (FRL):
• Every structure ends with a reversal pattern.
• A neckline is always strictly horizontal and defined by the last impulse’s top.
• The MA100 tells us the scale we’re working with — helping us select the right timeframe to confirm.
🔍 In this setup:
• A potential reversal pattern is forming.
• The neckline coincides perfectly with the MA100 — a strong alignment of structure and scale.
• We also see early signs of MACD divergence, suggesting loss of bearish momentum.
Neckline levels: 3400 for a Double bottom and 3300 for a Double top.
✅ What to wait for:
• A full-bodied candle close above the neckline (not just a wick).
• This signals the end of correction and potential beginning of a new impulse.
🎯 Target:
• Measure the height from the neckline to the bottom of the correction.
• Project it upward from the neckline to estimate the first profit target.
HelenP. I Gold can rise to resistance level and drop to $3325Hi folks today I'm prepared for you Gold analytics. After a steady climb, the price began to lose momentum and eventually corrected back to the trend line. This zone acted as dynamic support and initiated a new wave of upward movement. However, unlike the previous impulse, the price started consolidating within a symmetrical triangle, signaling indecision and weakening bullish pressure. Now the structure is tightening near the resistance zone, where the price has already been rejected multiple times. The market appears to be preparing for another interaction with the resistance level around 3430. Given the overall context, fading bullish energy, repeated rejections, and the triangle formation, I expect the price to test the resistance one more time before reversing downward. My goal is the trend line support, which aligns with 3325 points. This zone offers a logical area for the price to move next, especially considering the limited momentum above and the growing risk of breakdown inside the triangle. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
Disclaimer: As part of ThinkMarkets’ Influencer Program, I am sponsored to share and publish their charts in my analysis.
GOLD: Short Signal with Entry/SL/TP
GOLD
- Classic bearish formation
- Our team expects fall
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Sell GOLD
Entry Level - 3370.3
Sl - 3377.8
Tp - 3355.4
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
XAU/USD – Technical AnalysisThe chart reflects a sustained bearish phase within a well-defined descending channel, yet current price action suggests a potential trend shift may be underway.
🧠 Key Observations:
Price Compression Near Channel Support:
The market is testing the lower boundary of the descending channel, indicating possible exhaustion of selling momentum.
Ichimoku Cloud Analysis:
Price remains below the cloud, confirming bearish structure for now. However, cloud thinning ahead signals a weakening trend, which often precedes a reversal.
Projected Recovery Path:
A forecasted move is highlighted, suggesting a break above $3,360–$3,380, targeting the upper cloud resistance near $3,400. This level aligns with prior structure and volume interest.
Volume Profile (left):
Strong volume nodes align with support zones, reinforcing the potential for a bounce if momentum shifts.
📌 Strategy Insight:
While bearish momentum remains in control, signs of stabilization and potential reversal are emerging. Traders should wait for:
A confirmed break above the cloud, or
A bullish engulfing with volume support to validate long entries.
✅ Summary:
Trend remains bearish, but the setup shows early signs of accumulation and reversal. A breakout from the cloud and descending channel could trigger a shift toward $3,400+ in the near term. Monitoring phase active.
GOLD Under Pressure as Volatility Rises – Key Support in FocusGOLD – Overview
Gold remains under bearish pressure driven by ongoing geopolitical instability and uncertainty around recent U.S. economic data.
As long as the price trades below 3347, a corrective move toward 3322 is expected.
A 15-minute close below 3322 would likely extend the decline toward 3303, where a rebound may occur.
However, if the price reverses and stabilizes above 3347, this would support a move higher toward 3365 and 3379.
Market Note:
Overall conditions remain highly volatile and unstable, with sharp intraday swings likely.
• Support: 3322 / 3303 / 3281
• Resistance: 3364 / 3379 / 3393
XAUUSD: 1H Chart Trend Continuation or Deeper Pullback?Established Uptrend Channel : The XAUUSD pair is trading within a well-defined, long-term ascending channel (highlighted by the red parallel bands), indicating a clear bullish trend with consistent higher highs and higher lows over the observed period.
Significant Support Confluence : The lower boundary of the ascending channel, particularly the area marked "Confluence Area for support" (green and orange shaded zone), has repeatedly acted as a strong demand zone where price has found support and reversed higher.
Current Corrective Phase and Deciding Point : Price is currently undergoing a short-term correction, forming a smaller, descending channel (white/grey box) within the larger uptrend. This area is labeled "Deciding Area to continue Higher," indicating that the immediate future direction is contingent on whether price breaks out of this smaller channel or continues within it.
Projected Pathways : The chart illustrates two immediate potential scenarios: a resumption of the primary uptrend (green dotted path) upon a successful breakout from the short-term descending channel, or a deeper retracement towards the major ascending channel's support (red dotted path) if the current corrective structure persists or breaks lower.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this chart is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. Trading and investing involve substantial risk and are not suitable for every investor. You should carefully consider your financial situation and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The creator of this chart does not guarantee any specific outcome or profit and is not responsible for any losses incurred as a result of using this information. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Use this information at your own risk. This chart has been created for my own improvement in Trading and Investment Analysis. Please do your own analysis before any investments.
XAU/USD Smart Money Setup | Daily Demand Holding SeenForex | ICT-Based Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is respecting the Daily Demand Zone after forming a clean sweep of short-term liquidity ($$$).
Price is showing signs of potential reversal after mitigation of demand and may target the ATH liquidity above.
Key Observations:
- Daily Demand Zone tested & holding.
- Short-term liquidity ($$$) taken below recent lows.
- FVG + Break in structure expected for confirmation.
- Possible move toward $3,500 ATH area if bullish order flow continues.
- Rejection zone: $3,370–$3,395 (Short-term supply).
💡 Patience is key. Wait for clear bullish confirmation before execution.
Strategy: ICT Smart Money | Liquidity Sweep | Order Block | BOS | FVG
Analyst: SeenForex
Date: June 19, 2025
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📈 Follow for more Smart Money setups – SeenForex 🔔
Gold | 4h Structural LookoutPEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD
📅 June 18, 2025
Chart Title: “Gold's Battle at the Midpoint – Compression Before Explosion”
Bias: Neutral-to-Bullish
Structure: Ranging with Bullish Channel
✳️ Technical Summary:
Gold continues to coil near the upper half of its multi-month structure, testing traders’ patience before a potentially explosive move. Current PA is forming a tight consolidation right beneath mid-channel resistance, suggesting a directional breakout is imminent — especially with the FOMC catalyst ahead.
📏 Key Chart Features:
Clear Rising Channel: Acting as medium-term trend guide
Major Consolidation: Identified around 3,330–3,380
Historical Boxes & Reaction Lows: Multiple orange circles show clear buying interest zones
Possible Long-Term Range: Defined between 3,123 and ATH zone (3,500)
EMA Support: Price currently holding both 15 & 60 EMAs
📈 Scenarios to Watch:
🔼 Bullish Breakout Path:
Trigger: Break and close above 3,400
Confirmation: Follow-through above consolidation +full body close
TP1: 3,460
TP2: ATH retest around 3,500–3,540
SL: Below 3,320 or lower trendline
Invalidation: Break below channel
🔽 Bearish Breakdown Path:
Trigger: Breakdown below 3,325 support
First Target: 3,250
Expansion Target: 3,123 – base of the macro range
Extreme Bear Target: 3,000 zone
SL: Above 3,400
Consolidation Zoom in:
#Xauusd #Gold #Trading #MJtrading #forex #Chart #chartanalysis #signal #freesignal