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XAUUSD trade ideas

Will Upcoming Data Determine the Next Gold's Direction?Macro approach: - Gold retreated this week, reversing early gains to trade near four-week lows amid renewed US dollar strength and caution ahead of the Fed's policy decision. - The retreat was mainly pressured by stronger-than-expected US economic data and a tentative revival in risk appetite, offsetting pockets of safe-haven demand. - Key drivers included robust US GDP growth for 2Q, a bounce in consumer confidence, and the Fed's steady rates with a more hawkish tone, suggesting cuts may be further out. - Meanwhile, recent US-EU and US-China trade deals eased some global uncertainty, damping gold's appeal as a hedge.  - Market participants also eyed the labor market's continued cooling, but resilient consumer spending further buoyed the dollar. - Gold may remain volatile, with potential upside if upcoming US PCE inflation and NFP reports disappoint expectations. Any escalation in trade tensions or signals of Fed policy easing could renew support for gold prices. Technical approach: - XAUUSD fluctuated within the range of 3285-3560, which is below the broken ascending trendline. The price between the two EMAs awaits an apparent breakout to determine the next trend. - If XAUUSD breaks below the support at 3273, confluence with EMA78, the price may plunge to retest the following support at 3167. - On the contrary, remaining above the support at 3273 may lead XAUUSD to retest the resistance at around 3560. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
ICMARKETS:XAUUSD
by DatTong
2
Gold Faces Strong Rejection Below $3,365 – Bearish Wave Ahead?Gold is currently trading around $3,359, showing signs of exhaustion after climbing from the $3,248 low. The chart illustrates a textbook scenario of channel rejection after testing the upper boundary of the descending wedge and failing to break above the $3,365–$3,392 resistance zone. Price is now hovering just below the diagonal black trendline, indicating a potential lower high formation and setting up for another bearish wave. 📌 Key Technical Highlights Resistance Zone: $3,365–$3,392 This area marks the confluence of the black long-term trendline, the top of the descending purple channel, and the previous high at $3,392. Price attempted a "Possible Retest" as annotated on the chart and is now starting to pull back—showing signs of bearish rejection. Bearish Scenario (Blue Arrows): Multiple downward arrows show likely bearish paths if the current resistance holds. Key short-term targets: $3,337, $3,320, $3,303, Strong support at $3,293–$3,248 Further downside may test extension levels toward $3,220–$3,200 by early August if momentum builds. ⚠️ Bearish Confirmation Criteria Failure to close above $3,365 (black trendline) Breakdown below $3,337 followed by $3,320 Strong selling pressure supported by fundamentals (e.g. USD strength, Fed hawkish stance) ✅ Invalidation / Bullish Outlook A decisive breakout and close above $3,392.73 would invalidate the bearish structure. In that case, targets would shift toward: $3,412, $3,434, $3,490 (long-term trendline intersection) However, today's U.S. CPI (Consumer Price Index) release adds a layer of volatility and potential trend disruption, making this a high-risk trading day. 📊 CPI News Impact – What to Watch High CPI (Stronger than forecast): - Increases expectations of further Fed tightening → strengthens USD → bearish for gold - Likely scenario: sharp drop toward $3,337 → $3,320 → $3,293 Low CPI (Weaker than forecast): - Signals disinflation → weakens USD → bullish for gold - Possible breakout above $3,365 → retest of $3,392 → if broken, target $3,412 and $3,434 Neutral or as expected CPI: - Likely leads to whipsaw — fakeout on both sides - Caution advised — wait for candle close confirmations post-news Note Please risk management in trading is a Key so use your money accordingly. If you like the idea then please like and boost. Thank you and Good Luck!
ICMARKETS:XAUUSDShort
by SibiSh
Gold Awaits Fed Rate Decision – Key Levels & Volatility AheadGold is currently trading near $3,332, showing a minor recovery after recent downward momentum. The price action on the 1-hour chart highlights a short-term ascending structure, which often acts as a corrective move rather than a strong bullish trend. The market previously saw significant selling pressure from above $3,355–$3,360, creating a short-term supply zone. Unless the price breaks and holds above this zone, the overall momentum remains bearish. The chart also shows a projected price path where gold could push slightly higher toward $3,355, meet resistance, and potentially reverse downward again. Key support lies at $3,320, and if this breaks, we could see gold testing $3,290–$3,280 levels, aligning with the black trend line support. However, if bulls manage to break above $3,360, it would signal potential upside continuation toward $3,380–$3,400. Key Points - Key Resistance Levels: $3,355 and $3,360 (critical supply zone). - Key Support Levels: $3,320 (short-term), followed by $3,290–$3,280 (major trendline support). - Expected Short-Term Move: Possible push toward $3,355 → rejection → decline back toward $3,320 and possibly $3,290. Bullish Breakout Scenario: A strong close above $3,360 could push price toward $3,380–$3,400. Overall Bias: Bearish while trading below $3,360. 4hr Chart Price remains under pressure below the descending trendline. A small pullback toward $3,345–$3,350 is possible, but as long as price stays under this resistance, the bias remains bearish with potential downside targets around $3,300–$3,280. Key Levels: - Resistance: $3,350 → $3,381 → $3,394 - Support: $3,324 → $3,281 → $3,254 Today’s FOMC interest rate decision is a key driver for Gold. Here’s the quick analysis: - If Fed Hikes Rates or Maintains Hawkish Tone: - Strong USD likely → Gold could face more selling pressure. - Key support zones: $3,324 – $3,300, then $3,281 and $3,254. - If Fed Pauses or Turns Dovish: - Dollar weakens → Gold may bounce toward resistance zones. - Upside levels: $3,355 – $3,360 and higher toward $3,381 – $3,394 (Fib levels). Expect high volatility; $3,300 is a critical support to watch. A dovish Fed may give Gold short-term relief, but a hawkish stance could accelerate the downtrend. Note Please risk management in trading is a Key so use your money accordingly. If you like the idea then please like and boost. Thank you and Good Luck!
ICMARKETS:XAUUSDShort
by SibiSh
Gold Bulls Charging to 3305 But What’s Waiting There?Gold has recently taken support from the lower levels and has also shown a Break of Structure (BoS) to the downside. Currently, there is Imbalance and Internal Draw on Liquidity (IDM) resting around the 3305 level. The market appears to be moving upward to mitigate that imbalance. It's important to closely monitor this zone, as once the market reaches and fills this area, there is a high probability of a potential rejection or bearish move from that level
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TradeCraft_FX
Gold 31 July – Bearish Bias Holds, Watching Supply ZonesGold (XAUUSD) Analysis – 31 July Market structure is now aligned across both higher and lower timeframes: H4: Bearish M15: Bearish This alignment strengthens the probability of trend-continuation setups in favor of the dominant downtrend. 🔄 Current Market Behavior: The M15 chart is currently in a pullback phase, retracing toward its previous lower high and approaching a key supply zone. 📍 Key Supply Zones to Watch: Zone 1 – Immediate Supply Zone (3299 – 3305) • First area of interest where price may react. • If respected and followed by M1 confirmation, a short setup could be initiated. • Watch for signs of exhaustion or sharp rejection. Zone 2 – Higher Supply Zone (3326 – 3332) • If the first zone fails, this becomes the next high-probability area. • Well-aligned with the broader bearish structure — expect stronger reaction potential. • Suitable for cleaner high RR short trades if price reaches this level. ✅ Execution Plan: • Observe how price behaves inside the marked zones. • Only plan short entries after M1 confirmation — this adds precision and prevents premature entries. • Stay patient. Let the market come to you and reveal intent before acting. 📌 Summary: Bias: Bearish Structure: H4 and M15 both support downside bias Zones in Focus: – Primary: 3299–3305 – Secondary: 3326–3332 Execution: Wait for confirmation before entering. Risk-Reward: Maintain 1:3 RR minimum (e.g., 40 pip SL, 120 pip TP). Let the structure guide your setups — not impulse. 📘 Shared by ChartIsMirror
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ChartIsMirror
Technical Analysis - Gold (XAU/USD) - 4H ChartI’ve dissected the market using Elliott Wave theory and uncovered key signals that most overlook. Here's my breakdown: ## 📌 **Setup Overview* I'm tracking a complex wave structure that hints at the final stage of a corrective pattern, setting the stage for a potential bullish rebound. ## 🎯 **Entry Strategy** I’ve identified a prime buy zone around **3,350USD**—just above current market levels. This isn’t just a number—it's where price action and wave theory converge. High-probability setup with a tight stop. Above 3,380 ## 🧭 **Projected Move** While I’m eyeing short-term upside, the larger wave pattern suggests the potential for a deeper correction targeting the **3120.000 USD** area. I’m preparing for both scenarios to stay ahead of market sentiment. ---
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Elrouby
GOLD recovers after many days of declineOANDA:XAUUSD has recovered after several days of declines. Investors will focus on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on Wednesday, which is expected to cause significant market volatility. Gold hit a three-week low of $3,301 an ounce on Monday, before recovering somewhat on Tuesday after falling for a fourth straight day as the dollar erased some of its earlier gains, boosting demand for the precious metal. Falling US Treasury yields and a weak US jobs report also prompted investors to buy gold. Data released by the U.S. Labor Department on Tuesday showed the number of jobs added fell in June after two straight months of gains. The number of jobs added in June fell to 7.44 million from a revised 7.71 million in May. The median forecast of economists in a survey was 7.5 million. Focus on the Federal Reserve's decision The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision at 01:00 IST on Thursday; Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will hold a press conference on monetary policy at 01:30 IST on the same day. The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged, with the focus on whether Fed Chairman Powell's speech will provide any clues about the timing or pace of future rate cuts. The market sees a very low chance of a rate cut in July and a roughly 40% chance of another rate cut in September, up from about 10% last month, according to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool. Investors will be closely watching the statement and Fed Chairman Powell's remarks at his post-meeting press conference for fresh clues on the timing of the next rate cut. - If Powell opens the door to a rate cut in September, citing the recent trade deal as a reason to ease uncertainty, US Treasury yields could fall immediately, paving the way for gold prices to rise. - On the other hand, if Powell avoids committing to a rate cut at this meeting, citing recent rising inflation data, gold prices could fall. Gold typically performs well in low-interest-rate environments because it does not pay interest and its appeal increases when returns from other assets decline. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD Gold has recovered from the key $3,300 price point and is holding above $3,310, which is also the nearest support. However, the current recovery is not technically enough to create a short-term uptrend, or conditions for a sustained price increase. In terms of position, gold is under pressure with the 21-day EMA as the nearest resistance at around $3,340 – $3,350. If gold falls below the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level, it will be eligible to open a new downtrend with a target of around $3,246 in the short term, more than the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level. On the other hand, RSI is below 50, and the current 50 level acts as momentum resistance in the short term. If RSI slopes down, it will signal bearish momentum with more downside ahead. For gold to qualify for bullish expectations, it needs to at least push price action above EMA21, then retrace back to the price channels and finally break above the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level to confirm bullish conditions. The upside target could be towards $3,400 in the short term, more like $3,430 – $3,450. For the day, the technical outlook for gold prices tends to lean more towards the downside, with the following notable points listed. Support: 3,310 – 3,300 – 3,292 USD Resistance: 3,340 – 3,350 – 3,371 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3376 - 3374⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3380 →Take Profit 1 3368 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3362 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3280 - 3282⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3276 →Take Profit 1 3288 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3294
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Xayah_trading
2
How to seize the key turning points in the gold market?The market is ever-changing, and following the trend is the best strategy. When the trend emerges, jump in; don't buy against it, or you'll suffer. Remember not to act on impulse when trading. The market is a haven for all kinds of resistance, so don't hold onto positions. I'm sure many people have experienced this: the more you hold onto positions, the more panic you become, leading to ever-increasing losses, poor sleep, and missed opportunities. If you share these concerns, why not try following Tian Haoyang's lead and see if it can open your eyes? I'm always here for you if you need help, but how can I help you if you don't even offer a hand? Gold did not fall below 3280 during the day on Friday and started to fluctuate in the range of 3280-3300. The non-farm payroll data was bullish, and it directly broke through the pressure of 3315, and then broke through the important pressure of 3335 again. As of now, it has reached a high near 3355. The non-farm payroll data market has almost been exhausted. Next, we will focus on the technical form adjustment. At present, you can consider light shorting in the area near 3355-3370. After all, chasing long is risky, and the technical side needs to be adjusted. If your current operation is not ideal, I hope I can help you avoid detours in your investment. Welcome to communicate with me. Based on the 4-hour chart, short-term resistance is near 3355-3365, with a focus on the key resistance level of 3370-3375. Short-term buy orders should be taken if a rebound continues. I'll provide detailed trading strategies at the bottom of the page, so stay tuned. Gold operation strategy: Short gold in batches when gold rebounds to 3355-3370, with the target being the area around 3340-3335. Continue to hold if it breaks through.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Trade-Daniel
Gold non-farm payrolls are bullish, long and short positions ana Rather than envying the fish by the river, it's better to retreat and weave your net. We often envy the wealth others can earn by investing in the gold market. We often watch them enthusiastically investing, but we ourselves are afraid to enter the market. The two major factors that drive the market, technology and news, are a topic of constant debate among investors. To navigate the market, one must master the art of attack and defense to remain rock-solid while remaining at the forefront. As the saying goes, trust me, and I will reward you with profits! Gold Data is Bullish! The positive non-farm payroll data sent gold soaring, with gains completely erasing all of the week's losses. Currently, gold's trend has reversed the stagnant bullish and bearish trend. After breaking through the 3300 mark and rising all the way to 3348, it shows no signs of stopping. A further test of the 3370 level is not out of the question! Due to the strong bullish data, if you don't immediately chase longs or place a breakout long order during the first wave, you'll likely have little chance of a pullback. Therefore, you should remain aggressive in your trading strategies. We recommend a pullback to the 3332-30 level to continue the bullish trend. Upward pressure is expected at 3372-75! The market fluctuates violently, and more real-time entry and exit points are mainly based on Yulia's real-time guidance!
TVC:GOLDLong
by jiqeu1
Gold Alert: Key Levels for Potential Sell Setup!Good morning, my friends 🌞 Here’s today’s gold analysis. I'm expecting a decline in gold prices, specifically from the 3,383–3,420 level. Once a correction starts around that zone, my target will be 3,310. Gold has been riding a strong uptrend, and if we reach those levels, I’ll be expecting a pullback and opening a sell position accordingly. Please set your stop loss based on your personal margin preferences. Your likes and support are my biggest motivation for continuing to share these analyses. Thank you to everyone showing appreciation 🙏
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TraderTilki
7
GOLD Weekly Idea💡Why Gold Pulled Back - Gold pulled back today after hitting $3439.04, just below resistance at $3451.53. Traders took profits ahead of key Fed and trade headlines. Right now, it’s trading around $3414.48, down 0.50%. - The dip came after the U.S.-Japan trade deal eased geopolitical tension, cutting safe-haven demand. Plus, U.S. bond yields are climbing (10-year at 4.384%), which adds pressure on gold. Support is building at $3374.42, with stronger buying interest expected around $3347.97 and the 50-day moving average at $3336.40 — a key level bulls want to defend. Short-term looks a bit weak, but as long as gold holds above the 50-day MA, the bullish trend remains intact. Longer-term, weakness in the dollar, central bank gold buying, and concerns about Fed independence could push prices higher. 🔍Watching the Fed’s July 29–30 meeting next
FX:XAUUSDShort
by GOLDFXCC
Is the uptrend complete? Will there be a pullback?On the last trading day of this week, gold prices soared, rising nearly $56, driven by the non-farm payroll data. The rally began at 3300 and peaked near 3356. The price has now retreated slightly, fluctuating around 3345. The current uptrend has repeatedly tested the resistance level near 3355 but has failed to break through. The RSI indicator hovered around 76.8, indicating a gradual flattening of the upward trend. The 3355 high is likely the end of this uptrend. As this is the last day of a major data week, Quaid believes the current uptrend is complete. Consider a light short position around 3350-3355. The current low has yet to be confirmed, and the pullback is likely to end around 3335. However, we cannot rule out the possibility that the price will remain within the upward channel with slight fluctuations on the last trading day of the week.
FX:XAUUSD
by quaid_2
GOLD BUY TRADE IDEA • Price Action Context: • Recent bearish leg shows a clear shift from premium to discount territory. • Market is approaching a higher timeframe demand zone around $3,277 – $3,299 (highlighted red zone). • Notable inducement below recent lows suggests engineered liquidity to fuel a potential reversal. • Current Market Structure: • After a deep retracement, price is expected to tap into the discount zone, where institutional buy orders may be resting. • Anticipated bullish reaction following a liquidity sweep of the lows and demand mitigation. • Smart Money Flow: • Inducement ➝ Liquidity Grab ➝ Demand Tap ➝ Bullish Reaction setup in play. • Internal structure likely to shift bullish after a sweep, potentially forming a higher low and aiming for a BOS (Break of Structure) on the upside. • Upside Target: • Short-term target area: $3,360 – $3,380. • Possible continuation toward premium if internal structure confirms strength. 🧠 Smart Money Narrative: 1. Induced sell-off below structure for liquidity collection. 2. Approaching major POI (Point of Interest) in discount. 3. Anticipated entry point for institutions to buy gold at value. 4. Reversal expected toward premium imbalance areas.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by RayForexlyfe
NFP Friday - XAUUSD Prediction - August 2025#NFP Friday + New Month 👇 - Still leaning bearish on TVC:GOLD - New month = re-positioning flows - Watching 3225–3250 zone (Fib 38/50 confluence) - Clean pullback setup near Psy level & untested orders News Prediction: - Labor market still holding up, I’m thinking NFP prints closer to 130k–150k, not that 110k estimate - Yes, tech & retail saw some layoffs, but not enough to tank the whole report - Adapt if wrong, execute if right. No stress #XAUUSD #Gold #NFP #Dollar #NFPFriday #XAUUSD #Gold #NFP #JobsReport #Dollar #Macro #Trading #MarketOutlook #NFPFriday
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by JOHNDOUGHFX