DeGRAM | GOLD reached the resistance line📊 Technical Analysis
● Twin rejections inside the 3 300-3 340 supply, exactly where the purple retest line and rising-channel ceiling intersect, have carved a lower high and completed a bearish flag.
● RSI confirms negative divergence and the candle body is back below the 3 284 pivot, favouring a slide toward the channel median at 3 172 and, if broken, the floor/September swing low near 3 100.
💡 Fundamental Analysis
● Upbeat US second-estimate GDP and stronger durable-goods orders pushed 2-yr Treasury yields above 5 %, raising gold’s carry cost, while WGC logs a sixth straight week of ETF outflows and the PBoC reportedly paused reserve buying in May.
✨ Summary
Short below 3 300; objectives 3 172 → 3 100. Invalidate on a sustained close above 3 350.
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XAUUSD trade ideas
5/26 Gold Trading SignalsGood afternoon everyone!
I just returned from a weekend trip and apologize for the late update today — thank you all for your patience and continued support!
Gold has shown mild downward movement in a one-sided consolidation pattern today. This is a technical pullback after reaching a key resistance zone, reflecting selling pressure at higher levels. Today is Memorial Day in the U.S., which explains the low volatility and reduced trading volume.
🔎 Technical Outlook:
Once gold reached around 3360, it entered a significant resistance zone. If bulls intend to maintain the current uptrend, then the support around 3272 will be a critical level during this pullback. Before that, we should also keep an eye on 3322, 3318, and 3298.
On the 2-hour chart, a bearish divergence has formed, which needs to be resolved, possibly through sideways consolidation or a further pullback.
🗞 Fundamental Outlook:
The news is relatively quiet today, but important economic data and speeches will begin tomorrow, which may trigger larger market moves.
📈 Today’s Trading Plan:
📉 Sell in the 3352–3368 zone (resistance area)
📈 Buy in the 3292–3272 zone (support zone)
🔁 Flexible intraday levels to watch:
3348 / 3332 / 3323 / 3312 / 3305 / 3296
Stay flexible and manage risk accordingly. If you have any questions or want to discuss your trading strategy, feel free to reach out. Wishing everyone a smooth and profitable session!
GOLD(XAUUSD): Very Bearish Pattern📉GOLD formed a notable head and shoulders pattern at a significant daily/intraday horizontal resistance.
A bearish breakout from its horizontal neckline indicates strong selling pressure.
It is likely that the price will continue to decline, potentially reaching the 3219 level.
Gold Rejection in Focus – Will Bears Take Control?As anticipated from recent price action, gold’s latest movement may be signaling weakness and could act as a key trigger for short sellers. This is why I anticipate increased short-selling activity ahead. The bearish outlook is still intact. However, a rebound from resistance followed by rejection could once again attract sellers, setting the stage for a move toward the 3,180 support zone, which aligns with the upper boundary of the descending channel.
That said, failure to stay below this level could invalidate the bearish scenario and increase the likelihood of a pullback toward the upper line of the channel.
Before considering any short positions, look for clear bearish confirmation signals—such as a bearish engulfing candle, strong wick rejections from resistance, or rising sell volume.
Please note, I will not get involved without proper confirmation.
May 30, 2025 - XAUUSD GOLD Analysis and Potential OpportunitySummary:
Today is the final trading day of May — expect potential volatility as institutions may close monthly positions.
👉 Main plan: BUY on pullbacks to support around 3300–3305, as long as it holds.
Range trading between 3288–3325 is possible — trade high sell / low buy.
🔍 Key Levels:
• Resistance: 3350 / 3332 / 3325 / 3315
• Support: 3305 / 3300 / 3288 / 3276 / 3265 / 3250
📉 Macro Strategy:
• SELL if price breaks below 3305 → target 3300, 3295, 3288, 3276
• BUY if price holds above 3325 → target 3332, 3337, 3345, 3350
💬 If this plan helps, drop a like to show support — it keeps me motivated to share more! 🙌
GOLD 1. Gold and Dollar Index (DXY) Correlation
Gold and the US dollar (DXY) typically have a strong inverse correlation.
When the dollar strengthens, gold tends to weaken because gold becomes more expensive for holders of other currencies, reducing demand. Conversely, a weaker dollar supports gold prices by making it cheaper internationally.
However, during periods of geopolitical tension or market stress, both gold and the dollar can rise simultaneously as safe-haven assets.
In 2025, gold has shown resilience despite some dollar strength due to inflation concerns and central bank purchases.
2. Gold and Current Interest Rates / 10-Year Bond Yield
The current US 10-year Treasury yield is approximately 4.41% to 4.54% (latest data from May 21 to May 30, 2025).
Interest rates and bond yields have an inverse relationship with gold prices, primarily through the impact of real interest rates (nominal yield minus inflation).
Rising nominal yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold, typically pressuring gold prices.
However, if inflation expectations rise faster than nominal yields, real yields can remain low or negative, supporting gold demand.
Recent Fed concerns about stagflation and inflation have kept real yields low, supporting gold prices despite elevated nominal yields.
3. Gold and Bond Prices
Bond prices and yields move inversely: when bond prices rise, yields fall, and vice versa.
Rising bond prices (falling yields) generally support gold prices, as lower yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold.
Conversely, falling bond prices (rising yields) tend to pressure gold.
As of late May 2025, bond prices have been relatively stable but with some downward pressure reflecting inflation and fiscal concerns.
4. Carry Trade Advantage Related to Gold
Carry trade involves borrowing in low-interest-rate currencies and investing in higher-yielding assets or currencies.
Gold carry trades involve borrowing gold at low leasing rates and investing the proceeds in higher-yielding instruments.
The carry trade advantage depends on the interest rate differential and gold lease rates; low gold lease rates and high interest rate differentials favor carry trades.
Changes in interest rates and bond yields influence carry trade flows indirectly by affecting currency valuations and the cost of financing gold positions.
When interest rate differentials widen in favor of a currency, that currency strengthens, which can pressure gold prices denominated in that currency.
Summary Table
Factor Current Status (May 2025) Correlation with Gold Key Notes
Dollar Index (DXY) Around 98.4, testing key support Inverse Dollar strength pressures gold, exceptions in crises
US 10-Year Treasury Yield ~4.41% - 4.54% Inverse (via real yields) Higher nominal yields pressure gold unless inflation rises faster
Bond Prices Slight downward pressure Positive Rising bond prices support gold by lowering yields
Interest Rates (Fed Funds) Fed funds ~4.25%, markets pricing cuts later in 2025 Inverse Rate hikes increase opportunity cost of gold
Carry Trade Advantage Dependent on currency yield differentials Indirect Wider differentials can strengthen currencies, impacting gold
Conclusion
Gold prices remain inversely correlated with the US dollar and real interest rates.
Despite elevated nominal 10-year yields (~4.4%), gold is supported by low or negative real yields due to inflation concerns.
Bond price movements, reflecting yield changes, also influence gold indirectly through opportunity costs.
Carry trade dynamics, driven by interest rate differentials, affect currency strength and thus gold prices, with low gold lease rates enhancing carry trade profitability.
Monitoring DXY trends, inflation-adjusted yields, and central bank policies is essential to understanding gold’s near- and medium-term price movements.
#GOLD #DOLLAR
Gold trading I deaHi traders I shared this gold set up yesterday in my X according to my view selling pressure it's going to continue towards demand zone but I can't tell if it's gonna breakes down or what but am expecting it to sell a bit as shown in the chart and I always trust my work with patience n get amazing results please do risk smart n manage to grow accordingly this is not a gambling,am expecting everyone to not missing any set up I send smaller time frame or long trust the process,only trump can break my set up into peaces if not I trust my work n I can see all the best to my friends let's eat.
Selling pressure, gold price falls below 3300⭐️GOLDEN INFORMATION:
Gold prices continued to retreat during Wednesday’s North American session, slipping below the $3,300 mark after reaching an intraday high of $3,325 earlier. The pullback, amounting to a 0.27% decline, came as traders absorbed the implications of the latest Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting minutes.
During the May 6–7 policy meeting, the Fed opted to leave interest rates unchanged, highlighting growing uncertainty surrounding the economic impact of proposed tariffs. Officials maintained a cautious stance, citing heightened risks of both inflation and unemployment—potential consequences of trade disruptions.
The minutes also reflected concerns over stagflation, with policymakers noting that “the Committee may face challenging trade-offs if inflation proves more persistent while growth and employment expectations deteriorate.”
⭐️Personal comments NOVA:
The downtrend line remains intact, gold prices are trading around below 3300. The tariff backdrop remains largely unchanged.
⭐️SET UP GOLD PRICE:
🔥SELL GOLD zone : 3311- 3313 SL 3318
TP1: $3300
TP2: $3290
TP3: $3280
🔥BUY GOLD zone: $3205- $3207 SL $3200
TP1: $3218
TP2: $3230
TP3: $3248
⭐️Technical analysis:
Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable SELL order.
⭐️NOTE:
Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well
- take the number of lots that match your capital
- Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account
- Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
Gold Drops to 3250 – Sell-the-Spike Strategy Still in Play🕰️ What Happened Yesterday
In yesterday’s analysis, I argued that the 3320–3330 zone should act as a strong sell zone, with a target down at the 3250 support.
Gold respected the plan perfectly: it dropped from the 3325 area straight into 3250 during the Asia session, hitting the target with precision(700+ pips)
At the time of writing, Gold is now bouncing, which is normal, trading around 3280.
❓ Correction Done or More to Come?
While the bounce to 3280 may look promising for bulls, my opinion remains unchanged: this is still a market to sell rallies, not to buy dips.
🔎 Why I Still Expect a Deeper Drop
- Old support becomes resistance – The 3280–3285 zone, once support, is now acting as resistance. That zone is currently being tested.
- Double resistance near 3300 – Just above, we have the psychological 3300 level, reinforced by the falling trendline coming from recent highs.
- Momentum still favors the downside – Unless bulls can reclaim and hold above 3300, this rebound is nothing more than a dead-cat bounce.
📉 Trading Plan
I remain in sell-the-spike mode. Any move into 3285 or 3300 is an opportunity to enter short, with stops above the trend line or yesterday's high.
If price breaks back below 3265, the probability increases for a new local low under 3250, probably to the next one around 3215.
✅ Final Thoughts
Yesterday’s setup worked perfectly — and the plan doesn’t change just because of a small bounce.
The market needs to prove it can break key resistance before shifting bias.
Until then, this remains a sell-on-strength market. Let the trades come to you. 🚀
Disclosure: I am part of TradeNation 's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
How to Trade Gold Market with the 50% Retracement CandleHey Traders so today wanted to show why you don't really need indicators to trade. Price action is the best way to trade imo because it's easier. For the most part indicators lag and can give you false signals. So if you are looking for a way to trade that does not involve indicators check this out.
So we can see that Gold is in a strong uptrend the strategy is wait until market pulls back to trendline and buy but what if you miss that pullback?
So you can still get in the uptrend look for a strong bullish candle like the one I highlighted on May 20. Then place an order to buy when the market pulls back to 50% of that candle. Measure it with the Fibonacci tool. Place your stop below the low of the candle or under support so that way you most likely won't get stopped out. Now this trade was textbook but not all of them are check out how as soon as it hit the 50% retracement of that candle market rocketed higher!
There you go simple way to trade and no need for complex indicators! This strategy works in all markets!
Always use Risk Management!
(Just in case your wrong in your analysis most experts recommend never to risk more than 2% of your account equity on any given trade.)
Hope This Helps Your Trading 😃
Clifford
XAUUSD - Will Gold Continue to Fall?!Gold is trading in its ascending channel on the 1-hour timeframe, between the EMA200 and EMA50. I expect the direction ahead for gold to be bullish and if it breaks the downtrend line, we can look for buying opportunities.
The U.S. dollar rose following a decision by the United States Court of International Trade to revoke tariffs imposed by Donald Trump. Since the Trump administration, there have been continual developments regarding tariffs, and this latest ruling, which blocks Trump’s retaliatory tariffs, has stirred uncertainty and confusion over its legal validity. The ruling also triggered a correction in gold’s upward trend.
According to the U.S. Constitution, the power to impose tariffs officially resides with Congress. However, since 1962, much of this authority has been delegated to the executive branch. Courts have historically upheld this delegation to the president, but this recent judgment casts doubt on the legitimacy of such executive powers.
The pressing question now is whether Trump can circumvent the ruling. Could he potentially ignore it or take counteraction? Any move by Trump in response would undoubtedly ripple through the financial markets.
Goldman Sachs has characterized the court’s decision as a new obstacle for Trump’s trade strategy, though it notes the ruling only applies to part of the tariffs.Analysts at the firm believe Trump may find legal or procedural means to work around the court’s decision, possibly introducing new strategies to maintain his tariff agenda.
Citing customs data, ING commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey reported that despite record-high prices, China’s gold imports reached their highest level in eleven months last month. Since the beginning of the year, gold prices have surged by more than 20%.
Total gold imports climbed to 127.5 metric tons, marking a 73% increase from the previous month. This sharp rise followed the People’s Bank of China’s issuance of new import quotas to select commercial banks in April. With a year-to-date gain exceeding 20%, gold hit an all-time high of $3,500 per ounce in April. Key drivers of this rally include geopolitical risk and sustained purchases by central banks.
In the broader metals sector, China’s refined copper production in April reached a new monthly record, rising 9% year-on-year to 1.25 million metric tons, even as processing fees remained low. Meanwhile, lead production declined by 1% from the previous year to 664,000 tons, while zinc output edged up by 0.3% to 576,000 tons.
According to the International Aluminium Institute, global aluminum production in April remained flat compared to the prior month, averaging 201,100 metric tons per day. However, on a year-over-year basis, output increased by 2.24%.
XAU/USD on the 45-minute timeframeSupport Zone Rejection (around 3,250 USD):
Price sharply reversed after testing a key support area (highlighted with a circle).
Volume increased at the reversal point, signaling strong buyer interest.
Break Above Minor Resistance (~3,280 USD):
Price has broken above the immediate resistance level with strong bullish momentum.
A bullish candle has closed above this zone, indicating a potential continuation.
Next Target Resistance Zones:
First Target: Around 3,320 USD, which aligns with a previous structural high and supply zone.
Final Target: Around 3,345–3,350 USD, representing a major resistance zone and previous swing high.
Trade Plan:
Entry: Above 3,280 (already in motion).
Target 1: 3,320
Target 2: 3,345–3,350
Stop Loss: Below 3,260 (below recent low and support zone)
Bullish Structure:
Higher low has been established.
Momentum is supported by volume confirmation
GOLD: Bullish Continuation & Long Signal
GOLD
- Classic bullish pattern
- Our team expects retracement
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Buy GOLD
Entry - 3282.5
Stop - 3274.1
Take - 3298.4
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
Market next move 🔻 Disruption to Bullish Thesis
1. Resistance Zone Near Target
The "Target" area might align with a previous resistance level (historically where price has reversed or consolidated).
If price hits that zone, it could stall or reject, rather than break through.
2. Bearish Volume Divergence
While the candles are green and pushing upward, volume is not increasing significantly.
Lack of strong buying volume can suggest a weak rally — potentially a bull trap.
3. Trend Context: Larger Downtrend
The chart shows a strong prior downtrend before the recent small upward push.
This move could be a dead-cat bounce or retracement within a broader bearish move.
4. Fundamental Risk: USD Strength
If the US Dollar Index (DXY) strengthens due to macroeconomic data or Fed commentary, gold (USD-denominated) typically drops.
The calendar icons suggest upcoming US economic data, which could disrupt gold’s movement.
5. Candle Structure Shows Exhaustion
The current bullish candles are smaller compared to previous strong red ones.
This may imply momentum exhaustion before reaching the target.
Hanzo / Gold 30min Path ( Confirmed Breakout Zones )🆚 Gold
The Path of Precision – Hanzo’s Market tactics
🔥 Key Levels & Breakout Strategy – 30 M TF
————-
☄️ Bullish Setup After Break Out – 3315 Zone
Price must break liquidity with high volume to confirm the move.
💯 Reasons : / 2025 Retest of 3315
- 09 / May ( Wick's + Rejections )
- 21 / May ( Break + Pump )
- 22 / May ( Break + Retest )
- 23 / May ( Break + Pump )
- 27 / May ( Break + Retest )
👌 3315 key level
Volume is High
Volume And the most Cluster Area
and also have solid HVN Volume
—————-
☄️ Bearish Setup After Break Out – 3283 Zone
Price must break liquidity with high volume to confirm the move.
💯 Reasons : / 2025 Retest of 3283
- 12 / May ( Bearish Retest )
- 20 / May ( Wick Retest at same point )
- 21 / May ( Wick Retest And Pump )
- 22 / May ( Wick Retest at same point )
- 27 / May ( Wick Retest And Pump )
Hanzo / Gold 30min Path ( Confirmed Breakout Zones )
XAUUSD Bearish Breakdown| Trend Reversal Bearish Setup Price has broken below the rising channel, showing early signs of a potential bearish reversal.
Key Resistance: 3364
Current Price: 3334
Support Levels to Watch:
3282 (first support)
3250 (major target)
If price fails to reclaim the channel and retests 3364 without strength, we could see a deeper drop below 3282. A bounce from 3282 might offer short-term buy setups, but momentum favors bears for now.
Trade Plan:
Short below 3325 with SL above 3364
Target: 3282, extended to 3250
Let me know your thoughts! Are you bullish or bearish here?
#technicalanalysis #priceaction #tradingview #USD #bearishsetup