XAUUSDG trade ideas
GOLD falls sharply, fundamental analysis and technical positionOANDA:XAUUSD fell sharply below the $3,300/oz price level as Chairman Jerome Powell did not signal any rate cuts at his next press conference on September 16-17. He only said that “no decision has been made on September” and that “more data will be evaluated in the coming months.” Economic data undermined the case for a rate cut, while geopolitical play remained a potential support.
The Fed and Interest Rates
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged for a fifth straight meeting on Wednesday, defying persistent pressure from President Donald Trump and White House officials.
However, two members of the central bank's board dissented, a rare move in three decades that underscored growing divisions within the central bank over the impact of Trump's tariff policies.
At the meeting, the Fed kept its benchmark federal funds rate in a range of 4.25% to 4.5%, in line with policy through 2025. Last fall, the Fed cut rates by a total of 100 basis points.
However, Federal Reserve Board Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman opposed cutting interest rates by another 25 basis points, marking the first time since Alan Greenspan in 1993 that two board members have opposed a majority resolution at a meeting.
At the press conference, Chairman Jerome Powell did not signal a rate cut at the next interest rate meeting on September 16-17, saying only that “no decision has been made about September” and that “more data will be evaluated in the coming months.” Powell also noted that despite Trump’s call for a sharp 3% rate cut to reduce interest costs on US debt and stimulate the housing market, the Fed will continue to monitor the longer-term impact of tariffs on the path of inflation and economic recovery.
Market expectations for a Fed rate cut in September fell to 47% in Powell's speech.
Economic data
ADP jobs data beats expectations and is bearish
US ADP payrolls jumped 104,000 in July, beating market expectations of 75,000 and marking the biggest gain since March. The data showed continued strength in the labor market, reinforcing the Federal Reserve’s stance on keeping interest rates high. Meanwhile, the preliminary estimate of annual GDP growth in the second quarter came in at 3% (2.4% expected), and the core personal consumption expenditures price index rose 2.5% year-on-year (2.3% expected), indicating both economic resilience and inflation stability, further weakening expectations for a rate cut.
Keep an eye on the ISM manufacturing PMI and non-farm payrolls data on August 1. If the jobs numbers continue to be strong, this could reinforce the Fed’s dovish stance.
Geopolitical and Policy Plays
News of a 90-day extension of the US-China tariff deal has eased some safe-haven demand, but Trump’s August 8 deadline for a new Russia-Ukraine deal, coupled with tensions in the Middle East, continue to provide potential support for gold.
Continued purchases by central banks (such as China and India) are a positive signal in the medium to long term, but are unlikely to offset short-term pressure from the Federal Reserve’s policies.
Technical outlook for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold has been sold below the $3,300 level and now the $3,300 level has become the nearest resistance at present. For now, gold will be limited by the area of the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement with the original price point of $3,300, along with that it has formed a short-term downtrend with the price channel, the next target will be around $3,246 in the short term followed by the Fibonacci retracement level noted with readers in previous publications.
On the momentum front, the Relative Strength Index is operating below 50 and is far from the oversold zone (20-0), indicating that there is still plenty of room for downside ahead.
In addition, the gold trend will also be pressured by the EMA21, as long as gold remains below the EMA21, the current technical conditions continue to favor the downside.
For the day, the technical outlook for gold is bearish with notable positions listed as follows.
Support: 3,246 – 3,228 USD
Resistance: 3,300 USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3345 - 3343⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3349
→Take Profit 1 3337
↨
→Take Profit 2 3331
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3240 - 3242⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3236
→Take Profit 1 3248
↨
→Take Profit 2 3254
GOLD in 1HHello to all traders. 😎😎
I hope all your deals will hit their targets. 🎉🎉
On the first day of August, gold surged strongly due to news about tariffs imposed by Trump on imported goods. It gained nearly $60 in a single powerful candle.
Currently, I expect a pullback from the $2362–$2370 range down to around $2347–$2352, followed by a potential rebound back to $2370.
⚠️⚠️⚠️⚠️Don’t forget to apply proper risk management!
What Do You Think?
Which scenario do you think is happen? **Share your thoughts!** ⬇️
Don't forget that this is just an analysis to give you an idea and trade with your own strategy. And don't forget the stop loss🛑🛑🛑
❤️❤️❤️The only friend you have in financial markets is your stop loss❤️❤️❤️
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Be Happy , Ali Jamali
GOLD Forming Bullish Pattern Read DescriptionGold is showing bullish momentum after a weaker-than-expected NFP report, which undermines the USD strength and increases demand for safe-haven assets like gold. With softer labor data, the market is now pricing in potential Fed rate cuts in the coming months, supporting upside pressure on gold.
Technical Analysis:
Price has respected the support zone and is now forming a bullish structure. If price holds above 3362, bullish momentum is expected to continue a Next targeting 3400 and 3419 – Strong resistance zone from recent highs
You May find more details in the chart.
Trade wisely best of luck Buddies.
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Gold Price Outlook: Bearish Trend DevelopingGold has broken below key top resistance, indicating potential for continued downside movement.
The US Dollar's recent rise has slowed amid renewed concerns about the US-China trade truce and profit-taking ahead of this week’s key employment data, following already strong GDP and ADP reports. While the dollar remains supported overall, uncertainty is capping its momentum, indirectly adding short-term volatility to gold.
The price action suggests a bearish breakout from key resistance zones. Momentum is building toward the downside, indicating the market could continue lower unless strong support levels hold. A potential bearish flag or breakdown structure is forming, and if confirmed, we may see a decline toward next support zones.
📍 Key Levels to Watch:
Resistance: 3310 / 3320
Support: 3269 / 3240
If gold remains below the broken resistance and fails to reclaim 3320, the bearish pressure is likely to continue. Watch upcoming employment data as it could add volatility and confirm the direction.
You may find more details in the chart.
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THE KOG REPORT THE KOG REPORT:
In last week’s KOG Report we said we would be looking for a price to attempt the higher level red box sitting around the 3370-75 region and if not breached, we felt an opportunity to short would be available from that region. We said if that failed and the move commenced, we would be looking at a complete correction of the move back down into the 3330-35 region, where we would then monitor price again in anticipation of a long from there or the extension level of 3310 which was also a red box short target (move complete). As you can see from the above, not only did we get that higher red box, we rejected, completed the move downside and then our traders managed to get that long trade all the way back up into the Excalibur target, red box targets and the hotspots shared in Camelot.
A decent week again, not only on Gold but also the numerous other pairs we trade, share targets on and analyse.
So, what can we expect in the week ahead?
For this week we can expect more ranging price action, but due to the previous range from last week being so tight, it looks like we’ll see a breakout coming in the latter part of the week unless there is news to bring us unexpected volume.
We have the key level below 3335-40 support and above that resistance and a red box sitting at 3375-80. This is the region that needs to watched for the break, and if broken we should hit the range high again at 3400-10. However, if rejected, we could again see this dip to attack that lower order region 3310-6 before attempting to recover.
Last week we wanted to see that curveball and although we did see some aggressive price action, I think we will see something extreme for this week. It’s that lower level 3310-6 that is a key region for bulls, if broken we can see a complete flush in gold taking us down into the 3250’s before we start the summer run. That for us would be the ideal scenario going into the month end, but, we’ll play it how we see and as usual, we go level to level and update any changes as we go along.
KOG’s Bias for the week:
Bullish above 3340 with targets above 3355, 3361, 3368, 3372 and above that 3385
Bearish below 3340 with targets below 3335, 3330, 3322, 3316, 3310 and below that 3304
RED BOX TARGETS:
Break above 3350 for 3355, 3361, 3367, 3375 and 3390 in extension of the move
Break below 3340 for 3335, 3330, 3320, 3310 and 3306 in extension of the move
Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
GOLD (XAUUSD): Detailed Support & Resistance Analysis
Here is my fresh support & resistance analysis for Gold.
Vertical Structures
Vertical Resistance 1: Rising trend line
Horizontal Structures
Support 1: 3327 - 3344 area
Support 2: 3246 - 3275 area
Resistance 1: 3431 - 3451 area
The price is currently coiling on a trend line.
Your next bullish confirmation will be its breakout.
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XAUUSD H4 Outlook – August 4, 2025Structure is bullish — but supply is layered. Precision now matters more than bias.
—
Gold is trading at 3362, sitting right inside the heart of a key structural zone. After a strong breakout from 3285–3260, price reclaimed imbalance, broke internal structure, and powered higher into premium. The trend is bullish — but we’ve just stepped into stacked supply.
Let’s break down every zone that matters now, from top to bottom:
🟥 3360–3375 – Valid H4 Supply Zone
This is the first active supply block — the origin of the last bearish leg. It holds a clean OB + imbalance and is currently being tested for mitigation.
We're inside it right now. This zone is critical:
→ If price breaks and holds above it, continuation is likely
→ If we reject here, it confirms sellers are defending their level
🟥 3385–3398 – Internal Supply Trap
A secondary supply zone built from previous order flow.
If bulls push through 3375 without rejection, this is the next area to watch for weakness.
This zone often creates fake breakouts, especially when momentum slows. RSI is already showing signs of exhaustion approaching this level.
🟥 3420–3440 – HTF Supply Trap
This is the top — the last unmitigated supply on the weekly.
It's not in play yet, but if bulls break above 3398 decisively, this is where the bigger trap could form.
Any long into this zone must be backed by strong structure and continuation candles — otherwise, it’s a liquidation magnet.
🟫 3322–3310 – Flip Reentry Zone
If we reject from current supply, this is the first high-probability reentry for bulls.
It’s where the last CHoCH confirmed, and it aligns with EMA confluence and minor imbalance.
Buy setups from here must be confirmed on M15/M30 — no blind longs.
🟦 3285–3260 – Breaker Demand Base
The true origin of the bullish move.
This zone caused the structural flip — clean OB, FVG stack, and liquidity sweep.
If price returns here, it becomes a must-hold for bullish continuation. One of the best sniper zones for longs.
🟦 3222–3205 – Final Demand Layer
Deep structure zone holding imbalance + previous HL base.
Only comes into play if 3260 fails. A break below this would shift bias to neutral or bearish on H4.
🎯 Bias Summary
✔️ H4 bias = bullish
✔️ Price is inside 3360–3375 supply
✔️ EMA 5/21/50 aligned, but RSI is elevated
⚠️ This is not a breakout — it’s a test zone
🔁 Execution Plan
📍 Rejection from 3360–3375 → sell scalp toward 3322
📍 Clean break of 3375 → watch for next short at 3385–3398
📍 Failure of 3398 → HTF draw toward 3430–3439
📍 Pullback toward 3322–3310 → potential long zone
📍 Clean drop to 3285 → high-RR buy area
📍 Break below 3260 → only valid demand left is 3222
—
This is not the time to chase. It’s the time to stalk.
You’re in premium. Supply is active. Let structure decide — you just execute with clarity.
—
Which zone are you watching for your next move?
Comment your bias below 👇🏼 Smash the ❤️ if this brought clarity, and follow GoldFxMinds to trade with precision every day.
Disclosure: Chart based on Trade Nation feed (TradingView).
Gold trend analysis!From the price level of 3368 and above, gold is expected to pull back at least until the Stochastic on the M30–H1 timeframes reaches oversold levels.
After that, a bullish continuation is likely, pushing the price up to around 3400.
This area will be a critical decision point — determining whether the market will continue its uptrend or reverse into a downtrend.
If the H4 chart prints a reversal candlestick pattern, it would indicate the beginning of a bearish trend, which could potentially lead to a downward movement of up to 20,000 points.
XAUUSD Daily Outlook – August 4, 2025We’re not in breakout. We’re deep in premium — and supply is stacked.
—
Gold is now trading at 3362, sitting right inside the first valid daily supply zone — the same block between 3355 and 3375 that caused the last rejection. The bullish rally from 3272 was clean: liquidity sweep, CHoCH, imbalance filled, HL confirmed. Bulls did their job. Now they’re walking straight into pressure.
Above this zone, things don’t get easier — they get trickier.
Just a bit higher, we have an internal supply trap between 3398 and 3412. It’s a reaction zone built from imbalance and inducement — not strong enough to hold a reversal on its own, but perfect to fake out breakout buyers. If price pushes through 3375 and enters this pocket, snipers should be watching carefully for early signs of weakness.
And finally, at the top of the current structure sits the HTF supply trap at 3430–3439 — the last weekly wick, the macro reversal zone. That level is sacred. If price makes it there, either we’ll see full-blown expansion… or a violent reversal born from overconfidence.
So what do we do now?
We wait.
If price starts to reject from this 3355–3375 supply with bearish intent, we target the flip reentry zone at 3318–3328 — the previous CHoCH break and dynamic EMA cluster. That’s your first intraday long trigger if bulls want to come back strong.
If that breaks, next is the demand base at 3287–3267, the origin of this entire bullish move. Below that? Imbalance support near 3225 — the final line before structure shifts.
—
🟥 Valid Supply Zone → 3355–3375
🟥 Internal Supply Trap → 3398–3412
🟥 HTF Supply Trap → 3430–3439
🟫 Flip Reentry Zone → 3318–3328
🟦 Demand Base → 3287–3267
🟦 Imbalance Support → 3225–3205
—
This isn’t a breakout. It’s a build-up inside premium.
The smartest move today might be no move — until structure speaks.
—
Are you watching for the rejection? Or the breakout trap?
Let us know your bias below 👇🏼
Tap that ❤️ if this gave clarity, and follow GoldFxMinds to stay ahead of every key level — no noise, just structure.
—
With sniper calm and strategic clarity,
GoldFxMinds 💙
Disclosure: Analysis based on Trade Nation TradingView chart feed.
Gold breaks price channel, officially starts falling✏️ OANDA:XAUUSD price has officially broken the bullish wave structure and broken the bullish channel. A corrective downtrend has begun to form. If there is a pull back to the trendline today, it is considered a good opportunity for sell signals.
The liquidity zone 3250 is the target of this corrective downtrend. The 3283 zone also has to wait for confirmation because when the market falls and the momentum of the decline, the number of FOMO sellers will be very strong. The opposite direction is when closing back above 3375, Gold will return to the uptrend.
📉 Key Levels
SELL zone 3343-3345
Target: 3250
BUY trigger: Rejection candle 3285
Buy zone: 3251
Leave your comments on the idea. I am happy to read your views.
Potential Reversal After Complex CorrectionThe current movement of gold (XAUUSD) is estimated to be forming part of wave ii of wave (c) of wave under the black label scenario. This implies that XAUUSD has the potential to undergo a deeper correction, targeting the 3,073–3,184 range.
However, under the alternative red label, the price action appears to be developing a triangle pattern as part of wave of wave 4. In this scenario, XAUUSD still holds the potential for further upside toward the 3,394–3,438 area, which also coincides with a Fibonacci cluster zone, serving as a critical resistance region.
Gold Next Move (Read description). Hello, Traders.
As you saw we have achieved our target at last ideas.
This week gold is running in down trend, today it has touched the price 3268 and then gold pumped.
As you see guys, gold has breakout the last support area and its support became resistance.
Gold has changed the character according to H1 and there is break of structure (BOS).
The trend is bearish, so gold needs to fall, it can fall till 3351.
Comment positive feedbacks, Thanks.
GOLD awaiting confirmation of a bullish zone formation.Gold has confirmed support at 3310, with the price rebounding and returning to the buying side. We are now awaiting confirmation of a bullish zone formation.
Gold remains under pressure ahead of key market-moving events, including the US GDP data release and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. However, the pause in Dollar strength is offering some support to the gold price. As long as the price holds above this level, the bullish scenario remains valid. A sustained move above this zone may open the path toward the next resistances: 3360 / 3385 we can expect Growth more.
You May find more Details in the Chart.
Trade wisely best of Luck Buddies.
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How to Find Liquidity Zones/Clusters on Any Forex Pair (GOLD)
You need just 1 minute of your time to find significant liquidity zones on any Forex pair and Gold.
In this article, I will teach you how to identify supply and demand zones easily step by step.
Liquidity Basics
By a market liquidity, I mean market orders.
The orders are not equally distributed among all the price levels.
While some will concentrate the interest of the market participants,
some levels will be low on liquidity.
Price levels and the areas that will attract and amass trading orders will be called liquidity zones.
How to Find Supply Zones
To find the strongest liquidity clusters, we will need to analyze a daily time frame.
A liquidity zone that is above current prices will be called a supply zone.
High volumes of selling orders will be distributed within.
One of the proven techniques to find such zones is to analyze a historic price action. You should identify a price level that acted as a strong resistance in the past.
4 horizontal levels that I underlined on EURGBP influenced market behavior in the recent past.
The price retraced from these levels significantly.
Why It Happened?
A down movement could occur because of an excess of selling orders and a closure of long positions by the buyers.
These factors indicate a high concentration of a liquidity around these price levels.
How to Draw Supply Zone?
One more thing to note about all these horizontal levels is that they cluster and the distance between them is relatively small .
To find a significant liquidity supply zone, I advise merging them into a single zone.
To draw that properly, its high should be based on the highest high among these levels. Its low should be based on the highest candle close level.
Following this strategy, here are 2 more significant supply zones.
We will assume that selling interest will concentrate within these areas and selling orders will be spread across its price ranges.
How to Find Demand Zones
A liquidity zone that is below current spot price levels will be called a demand zone . We will assume that buying orders will accumulate within.
To find these zones, we will analyze historically important price levels that acted as strong supports in the past.
I found 3 key support levels.
After tests of these levels, buying pressure emerged.
Why It Happened?
A bullish movement could occur because of an excess of buying orders and a closure of short positions by the sellers. Such clues strongly indicate a concentration of liquidity.
How to Draw Demand Zones?
Because these levels are close to each other, we will unify them into a one liquidity demand zone.
To draw a demand zone, I suggest that its low should be the lowest low among these key levels and its high should be the lowest candle close.
Examine 2 more liquidity zones that I found following this method.
Please, note that Demand Zone 2 is based on one single key level.
It is not mandatory for a liquidity zone to be based on multiple significant levels, it can be just one.
We will assume that buying interest will concentrate within these areas and buying orders will be allocated within the hole range.
Broken Liquidity Zones
There is one more liquidity zone that I did not underline.
That is a broken supply zone. After a breakout and a candle close above, it turned into a demand zone. For that reason, I plotted that based on the rules of supply zone drawing.
Start Market Analysis From Liquidity
Liquidity zones are one of the core elements of forex trading.
Your ability to recognize them properly is the key in predicting accurate price reversals.
Identify liquidity zones for:
spotting safe entry points,
use these zones as targets,
set your stop losses taking them into consideration.
They will help you to better understand the psychology of the market participants and their behavior.
I hope that the today's tutorial demonstrated you that it is very easy to find them.
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GOLD REVERSALHello folks, most traders stop out on this idea right? lets get back to previous month opening price, for short idea stoploss above. 3440.
But If you can wait for LONG below. maybe in the next 2 days.
Goodluck. I prefer LONG? I will update once I see volumes on downtrend today or the next day.
I only see short today. the volume is declining/exhausted. I predict reversal atm.
ciao.. see the chart above.
this is not a financial advice.
trade it like its your own business.
GOLD 1H CHART ROUTE MAP UPDATE & TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEKHey Everyone,
Please see our updated 1h chart levels and targets for the coming week.
We are seeing price play between two weighted levels with a gap above at 3348 and a gap below at 3328 . We will need to see ema5 cross and lock on either weighted level to determine the next range.
We will see levels tested side by side until one of the weighted levels break and lock to confirm direction for the next range.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 20 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
The swing range give bigger bounces then our weighted levels that's the difference between weighted levels and swing ranges.
BULLISH TARGET
3348
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3348 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGETS
3369
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3369 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3397
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3397 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3422
BEARISH TARGETS
3328
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3328 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
3305
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3305 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
3289
3267
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX