Market Structure AnalysisMarket Structure Analysis
HH (Higher High) and HL (Higher Low) labels indicate the prior uptrend structure.
The recent price action shows consolidation and potential trend reversal or correction.
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Highlighted Zones
Supply Zones (resistance): Marked in light teal rectangles near the top of price action (e.g., around 3,400).
Demand Zones (support): Marked below the current price (e.g., around 3,360 and lower near 3,320).
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Ch0CH (Change of Character)
A “Ch0CH” label is marked — this typically signals a potential shift in market structure (e.g., from bullish to bearish).
This is further supported by the price breaking below a previous higher low.
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Trade Setup
Red Zone: Indicates the stop-loss region.
Green Zone: Indicates the take-profit target.
A short (sell) position is implied here, expecting price to drop from the current level to the lower demand zone.
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Projected Price Path
A dotted white line projects a potential bearish move, with a minor retracement before continuation down to ~3,328.
XAUUSDG trade ideas
After breaking KEY DAY yesterday, it is very likely ATH in weekGold prices are being directly affected by the Israel-Iran tensions, the risk of trade conflicts due to the new US tariff policy, and concerns about slowing global economic growth. However, gold prices suddenly fell in the context of improving risk appetite of investors as they get used to the "new normal".
Daniel Pavilonis, senior commodities broker at RJO Futures, commented that if this rally starts to lose momentum, it could be a double top pattern for gold. Giving advice to investors, according to Mr. Pavilonis, they should start considering reducing their gold position at this time if they missed the opportunity to take profits at $3,509. When gold is peaking, investors see other markets moving higher, such as silver, platinum and palladium.
Best regards, StarrOne !!!
GOLD/USD Price fails to break above, showing strong selling 1. Supply Zone (Top-Right):
Multiple bearish reactions.
Price fails to break above, showing strong selling pressure.
2. Demand Zone (Lower-Mid):
Previous bullish reaction zone.
Price is currently testing this demand area again for a potential long setup.
3. Liquidity Zones:
Equal lows and equal highs suggest liquidity resting below and above, potential for stop hunts before real move.
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📌 Trade Setup
Entry: Long trade initiated from demand zone.
Stop Loss: Tightly placed below the refined demand zone.
Take Profit: Extended to prior structure highs near the supply zone.
Risk-Reward: Approx. 1:4+ — strong RRR (Risk-to-Reward Ratio), indicating disciplined execution.
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🔧 Technical Tools Used
Imbalance Zones: Highlighted areas where price moved too quickly (FVG - Fair Value Gaps).
Mitigation Blocks: Zones where previous supply/demand has been mitigated, aligning with institutional concepts.
Refined OBs (Order Blocks): Marked for sniper entries.
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🎯 Professional Insights
This chart demonstrates smart money concepts: price respecting refined institutional levels and reacting to liquidity zones.
The bullish setup from demand aligns with a potential market reversal or deeper pullback in a larger bearish leg.
The trader is executing with precision, aiming for maximum efficiency in entry and risk control.
Patience Before the Break: Gold Chart Signals Rally Toward 3,450 Technical Breakdown of the Chart
Key Concepts Used:
BOS (Break of Structure): Indicates a confirmed bullish break in market structure (around June 13).
MSS (Market Structure Shift): Marks a transition from bullish to bearish structure, which aligns with the swing high on June 14.
BSL (Buy-side Liquidity): Liquidity targets marked above recent highs (~3,420 and ~3,450).
Turtle Soup Setup: A classic fakeout reversal pattern, suggesting a stop-hunt below recent lows before a bullish move.
$$$: Liquidity Pool: Shows accumulation below before a breakout upward.
Bullish Case as Implied by the Chart
The chart suggests:
A liquidity sweep occurred at the recent low ("turtle soup").
Price is now rebounding from a demand zone, supported by bullish order flow.
If structure holds, price may:
Break above the minor high at ~3,410–3,420 (first BSL).
Continue upward toward ~3,450+ (second BSL), potentially reclaiming full bullish momentum.
Key Levels to Watch:
Zone Price Range Type
Demand 3,380–3,388 Support Zone
Target 1 ~3,420 Buy-side Liquidity
Target 2 ~3,450 Final BSL Target
If price breaks below the 3,380 zone with momentum, the bullish thesis weakens.
Summary:
Short-Term Trend: Bullish if support holds.
Liquidity Grab Complete: Signs of a reversal from turtle soup setup.
Upside Targets: 3,420 and 3,450.
Invalidation: Break and close below ~3,380
Excellent Profits throughout yesterday's sessionAs discussed throughout yesterday's session commentary: "I have engaged multiple re-Buy Scalp orders on #3,412.80 Bottom and closed them on #3,420.80 and engaged Swing order on #3,423.80 which was closed on #3,4335.80 which finalized last week in excellent way."
My position: As Gold delivered #3,388.80 - #3,392.80 Support zone test throughout yesterday's session, I have used that opportunity to Buy Gold with both Swing and Scalp orders (#3,388.80 Swing) and #4 aggressive Scalp orders from #3,390.80 towards #3,396.80 - #3,398.80 finishing the session in excellent Profit. I will not engage for today's session as Gold is Technically Bearish and Fundamentally Bullish which displays very mixed / unpredictable Trading as I will remain on sidelines, Highly satisfied with my results.
Keep in mind that as long as #3,377.80 Support is preserved, Bull structure is preserved and Price-action will push for #3,400.80 benchmark test or above. If however #3,377.80 gets invalidated and market closes below it, #3,352.80 benchmark will be tested.
XAUUSD Has follow ascending channel bullish now from supportXAUUSD Market Update
Gold is currently respecting the ascending channel and showing strong bullish momentum from the key demand zone at 3390.
📈 Technical Outlook (4H Timeframe):
✅ Holding firm within bullish structure
🎯 First target: 3490 – major resistance level ahead
💡 Watching closely for breakout confirmation or pullback opportunities.
📌 Trade smart. Stay informed.
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— Livia 😜
XAU/USD Bullish Continuation SetupThe chart illustrates a bullish market structure for XAU/USD, with price action currently trending upwards. Key technical observations:
Support Zone:
Price has recently bounced from a support zone around 3,399.710, indicating strong buying interest.
Bullish Projection:
A bullish continuation is expected. The chart outlines a potential scenario with a minor retracement towards 3,432.835 or 3,399.710, followed by a strong upward move.
Targets:
Immediate resistance is around 3,502.669.
If broken, price may aim for 3,550.351.
Final projected target lies near 3,680.000, which aligns with a historical supply zone.
Indicators:
The green enveloping bands suggest increasing volatility, with the price respecting the upper band, supporting bullish momentum.
Conclusion:
XAU/USD appears poised for a bullish breakout continuation. A potential pullback could offer a buy opportunity, targeting higher resistance zones as long as the structure remains intact
GOLDThe Federal Reserve is likely to interpret the June 2025 University of Michigan (UoM) consumer sentiment and inflation expectations data as mixed but cautiously encouraging, with implications for monetary policy:
Key Data Points
Consumer Sentiment: 60.5 (vs. 53.5 forecast, prior 52.2) – a sharp rebound to the highest level since mid-2023.
1-Year Inflation Expectations: 5.1% (vs. 6.6% prior) – a significant decline, nearing pre-tariff levels.
Fed Interpretation
Improved Consumer Sentiment:
The jump to 60.5 signals renewed optimism about the economy, likely driven by reduced trade tensions (e.g., tariff pauses) and stable labor markets. This aligns with recent upward revisions to April and May sentiment data.
The Fed will view this as a sign of economic resilience, reducing urgency for near-term rate cuts to stimulate growth.
Sharply Lower Inflation Expectations:
The drop to 5.1% (from 6.6%) aligns with the New York Fed’s May 2025 survey showing declining inflation expectations across all horizons.
This suggests consumers are growing more confident that the Fed’s policies (and tariff adjustments) are curbing price pressures, easing fears of a wage-price spiral.
Policy Implications:
Dovish Tilt Supported: Lower inflation expectations reduce the risk of entrenched price pressures, giving the Fed flexibility to cut rates later in 2025 if growth slows.
No Immediate Cuts Likely: Strong sentiment and a resilient labor market (unemployment at 4.2%) justify maintaining rates at 4.25–4.50% in July.
Focus on Tariff Risks: The Fed will remain cautious about potential inflation rebounds from Trump’s tariffs, which could add 1.5% to prices by late 2025.
Market Reactions
DXY (Dollar Index): Likely to dip modestly as lower inflation expectations boost rate-cut bets, but sentiment-driven growth optimism may limit losses. Key support at 98.00–98.20.
Bonds: 10-year yields may edge lower (toward 4.00%) on reduced inflation fears, though strong sentiment could cap declines.
Equities: Stocks (especially consumer-discretionary sectors) may rally on improved economic outlook.
Conclusion
The Fed will likely view this data as validating its cautious stance: inflation expectations are cooling, but strong sentiment and labor markets argue against premature easing. A September rate cut remains the base case, contingent on continued disinflation and no tariff-driven price spikes. Traders should watch for June CPI (July 11) and Q2 GDP to confirm trends
#gold #dollar
Gold Final Leg? Mapping the Last Wave of the Current Bull CycleI expect gold to be entering the final bullish wave of its current long-term cycle, with an ultimate target in the $3,900–$4,050 range.
However, the first major resistance lies between $3,600 and $3,700, where I expect a potential pullback.
From there, a healthy correction toward $3,300–$3,400 is likely.
If strong buying momentum steps in at that support zone, we may see gold continue its rally toward the final target.
📌 Key Risk Level:
Pay close attention to the $3,300–$3,400 support.
If gold fails to hold above it, and closes decisively below, this could signal that $3,600 was already the final top of this bull cycle.
Stay cautious, and good luck to all fellow traders! 🟡📈
Gold: Monitor Middle East Developments Over the WeekendAmid escalating tensions in the Middle East, risk-off sentiment surged,
sending gold soaring past the 3414 resistance and peaking near 3450,
before retracing and rebounding off the 3414 support zone.
⚠️ While this was a high-volume breakout, it was news-driven,
so keep in mind:
📌 If tensions ease over the weekend, a pullback on Monday is highly likely
📌 If tensions escalate, another bullish run would be expected
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🔍 Technical Outlook:
🧭 4H chart: 9-count nearing completion — overbought signals building
🧭 2H chart: MACD showing early signs of a bearish crossover; potential divergence forming
🧭 1D chart: Breakout with volume confirms bullish trend, but risk of short-term correction remains
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📌 Key Price Zones:
🔺 Resistance: 3468 – 3487 – 3500
🔻 Support: 3414 (critical) – 3400 – 3392
⚠️ If broken, next downside targets: 3378 – 3367
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📈 Strategy Suggestions:
As we head into Monday:
✅ Consider selling on rallies if geopolitical tensions ease
✅ If tensions worsen, follow the momentum — but watch for reversal signs
Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar (XAUUSD) 4-Hour Chart4-hour price movement of Gold Spot (XAUUSD) against the U.S. Dollar, covering the period from late June to early July 2025. The current price is $3,381.09, reflecting a slight decrease of $7.09 (-0.21%) over the period. The chart includes candlestick patterns, with a highlighted consolidation zone and a recent downward trend. Key price levels such as $3,401.46, $3,389.38, and $3,340.00 are marked, indicating potential support and resistance zones.
GOLD ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone,
Great start tot he week with our chart idea playing out, as analysed.
We started today with our bullish target at 3318 hit, followed with ema5 cross and lock opening 3352. Rejection here will see lower open Goldturns tested for support and bounce and further cross and locks will confirm a continuation.
We will see levels tested side by side until one of the weighted levels break and lock to confirm direction for the next range.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 20 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
The swing range give bigger bounces then our weighted levels that's the difference between weighted levels and swing ranges.
BULLISH TARGET
3318 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3318 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGETS
3352
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3352 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3388
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3388 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3428
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3428 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3478
BEARISH TARGETS
3281
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3281 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
3254
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3254 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
3210
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3210 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
3179
3146
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
Gold is rising in the shock!
From the analysis of the 1-hour chart, pay attention to the long-short watershed of 3360-3365. If it stabilizes at this position, it is expected to further bottom out and rebound. The upper short-term resistance is around 3410-3420, and the support is 3377-3380. Rely on this range to see the wide range of long and short shocks during the day. In the middle position, watch more and do less, be cautious in chasing orders, and wait patiently for key points to enter the market. I will remind you of the specific operation strategy during the session, and pay attention to it in time.
Buy gold when it falls back to the 3375-3383 range, and continue to buy when it falls back to the 3360-3364 line. The target is 3415-3420, and continue to hold if it breaks;
THE KOG REPORT - UpdateEnd of day update from us here at KOG:
A good start to the week with the lower level holding as expected and giving us the tap and bounce for the longs which we wanted to target the 3330-35 level on. This is now completed and if preference is for higher, there is a higher hotspot which could be a possibility.
For the above reason, although we may get a RIP from around here it's on the flip with support now 3320, so the higher level is possible in the early session before a retracement which will be level to level for now, unless there is a clean reversal. If we hold that 3320-15 level it's very likely they will want to take this higher!
KOG’s bias of the week:
Bearish below 3336 with targets below 3306✅, 3299✅, 3297✅, 3285 and 3275
Bullish on break of 3336 with targets above 3345, 3350, 3355, 3367 and 3376
Red boxes:
Break above 3310 for 3320, 3332, if held above 3335, 3347 and 3362 in extension of the move
Break below 3306 for 3299✅, 3295✅, 3285, 3280 and 3264 in extension of the move
As always, trade safe.
KOG
Current Gold Trend Analysis and Trading RecommendationsOn Friday, the strategy of going long on gold at relatively low levels was once again precisely fulfilled. The morning strategy clearly suggested opening long positions within the range of 3400 - 3410. As expected, the price of gold once again surged to around the 3445 level, and profits were successfully secured once more.
The hourly chart of gold shows a volatile upward trend. Driven by risk aversion in the early morning, it surged rapidly but fell back for correction after hitting resistance at 3444 during the European session. Before the U.S. session, it stabilized at 3412 and rallied again. The previous large bearish candlestick was more of a minor shakeout—after washing out floating chips, it has now regained its upward momentum.
Maintain a strongly bullish approach for now. The 3415-3410 range forms a key support zone, and long positions can be continued above this level. Upper resistance remains at 3445-3450; a valid breakout could lead to further gains toward 3475 and beyond. However, be aware that a sustained rally may trigger a pullback due to overbought indicators or divergences. For operations, consider going long near support and exercise caution when chasing highs near resistance
XAUUSD
buy@3405-3315
tp:3430-3450
Investment itself is not the source of risk; it is only when investment behavior escapes rational control that risks lie in wait. In the trading process, always bear in mind that restraining impulsiveness is the primary criterion for success. I share trading signals daily, and all signals have been accurate without error for a full month. Regardless of your past profits or losses, with my assistance, you have the hope to achieve a breakthrough in your investment.
Current Gold Trend Analysis and Trading RecommendationsOn Wednesday, the morning strategy suggested going long on gold at 3,375-3,365, perfectly seizing the pullback low and rebounding to the 3,400 level as expected. Today, there is also the Fed interest rate decision. Before the data release, short positions can be taken if the 3,400-3,405 level remains unbroken. If the 3,405-3,410 level is broken, we will continue to be bullish. Gold is in short-term oscillation, so try not to chase the market. Wait for a good entry opportunity. The upper level has also been repeatedly contested recently, and the Fed data is likely to break the range after its release.
For gold, continue to adopt an oscillating approach. In the 4H cycle, it is operating below the middle band. The short-term range is 3,405-3,365. If it breaks above 3,405, it can continue to target 3,420 and 3,450. Conversely, if it breaks below 3,365, it can fall to 3,350. In operation, prioritize long positions with short positions as a supplement, and adjust the strategy when a breakout occurs.
XAUUSD
buy@3370-3375
tp:3390-3400-3420
sell@3395-3400
tp:3380-3370
Investment itself is not the source of risk; it is only when investment behavior escapes rational control that risks lie in wait. In the trading process, always bear in mind that restraining impulsiveness is the primary criterion for success. I share trading signals daily, and all signals have been accurate without error for a full month. Regardless of your past profits or losses, with my assistance, you have the hope to achieve a breakthrough in your investment.
XAUUSD Buy Idea using EMA/ Purple Shift Zone Strong rejection observed at 3375 on both the 1H and 4H timeframes . This level aligns with the EMA200 on the 1H and EMA50 on the 4H, providing solid confluence for a potential buy setup.
Next target: 3402.
If price breaks above this level, a move towards 3420 is possible- Final target is around 3500 but who knows when we'll get there.
A cross of the Yellow Line (EMA5) above the Red (EMA13) would add further confirmation for the long, where I may consider adding to the position.
Let’s see how the price action develops. Good Luck
Just My Idea!
Gold: silence on the charts—because the real money already movedThe gold market isn't reacting — it's confirming. The Israeli strikes on Iran? That’s the trigger. But the move started earlier. Price was already coiled, already positioned. All the market needed was a headline. And it got it.
Price broke out of the accumulation channel and cleared $3,400 — a key structural level that’s acted as a battleground in past rotations. The move from $3,314 was no fluke — it was a textbook build: sweep the lows, reclaim structure, flip the highs. Volume spiked exactly where it needed to — this wasn’t emotional buying. This was smart money pulling the pin.
Technicals are loaded:
— Holding above $3,396–3,398 (0.618 Fibo + demand re-entry zone)
— All major EMAs (including MA200) are now below price
— RSI strong, no sign of exhaustion
— Candles? Clean control bars — breakout, retest, drive
— Volume profile above price = air pocket — resistance is thin to nonexistent up to $3,450+
Targets:
— $3,447 — prior high
— $3,484 — 1.272 extension
— $3,530 — full 1.618 expansion — key upside target
Fundamentals:
Middle East is boiling. Iran is ready to retaliate. Israel is already escalating. In moments like these, gold isn't just a commodity — it's capital preservation. The dollar is rising — and gold still rallies. That means this isn’t about inflation, or rates. It’s about risk-off. Pure, institutional-level flight to safety.
Tactical view:
The breakout is done. Holding above $3,396 confirms the thesis. Pullbacks to that zone? Reloading points. While gold remains in the channel and momentum is clean, the only side that matters right now — is long.
When price moves before the news — that’s not reaction. That’s preparation. Stay sharp.
How to trade the Fed's interest rate decision!In nearly an hour, the Fed will announce the Fed's interest rate decision and a summary of economic expectations;
In nearly an hour and a half, Powell will hold a monetary policy press conference.
If the Fed's policy statement or the latest forecast shows a dovish tendency, it may resume the downward trend of the US dollar, thereby supporting the upward trend of gold; and the recent mild inflation and weak employment data in the United States may prompt the Fed to soften its previous assessment, thereby strengthening expectations of interest rate cuts and providing support for gold prices.
From the current technical structure, gold maintains a volatile and anxious market during the day, and there is no clear direction in the short term, but gold is currently always below 3400, and the overall market is still in a weak trend; but gold has repeatedly touched the 3375-3365 area and can quickly recover, proving that there is still strong buying support below; in fact, it stands to reason that if gold is really weak, it should have continued to fall and touched the 3360-3350 area, but gold did not touch the area as expected, but used sideways trading to exchange time and space, and there was no sign of any downward breakthrough, so gold is likely to choose an upward direction.
In addition, the Middle East geopolitical crisis, global economic uncertainty, intensified trade frictions and rising inflation expectations will all provide structural support for gold. So if gold does not fall below the 3365-3355 area today, we will be bullish on gold first; but if gold cannot break through the 3410-3420 area in one fell swoop during the rise, then we need to be careful of the trend of gold rising and then falling.
As for how to trade the news next: the Federal Reserve interest rate decision. The above are my trading ideas and opinions, you can read them carefully and use them as a reference! If you still want to trade news after careful consideration, please be sure to set SL during the transaction to protect your account to the greatest extent!
Safe-Haven Demand Expected to Push Gold Prices Toward 3500Last week, intensifying conflict between Israel and Iran triggered a strong wave of risk-off sentiment in the markets.
As a result, we saw sharp rallies across major safe-haven assets and crude oil.
Over the weekend, tensions continued to escalate and even showed signs of further expansion.
Under such circumstances, it's clear that heightened geopolitical risk will continue to support gold prices.
However, 📍$3500 remains a major resistance zone at the moment.
If gold spikes to this level intraday, it’s very likely we’ll see a short-term pullback —
Whether due to profit-taking, cautious positioning by sideline capital, or selling pressure from trapped shorts above 3490,
⚠️ this kind of correction is a natural market reaction — driven by human nature.
Even with strong risk-off demand in place, after a $200 rally,
the market is still subject to volatility from profit-taking behaviors.
🔑 Trading Strategy for This Week
As long as tensions in the Middle East persist,
🎯 the primary bias remains bullish.
However, the entry point is crucial.
💡 Important notes:
Avoid chasing price after sudden spikes caused by breaking news.
Those spikes are not ideal buy zones — instead, look for short-term selling opportunities at those highs.
Once the price pulls back, assess the retracement level and key supports before looking to buy the dip.
We are now within a historically high price range,
which means any rally could trigger profit-taking from earlier longs.
While the overall trend may still head higher,
⚠️ you need to carefully evaluate the size of potential pullbacks and whether your account can withstand the associated risks.
📊 Technical Levels to Watch:
Resistance: 3450-3455 (minor), 3468-3474 (previous high), and 3487-3499 (major historical high)
Support: 3420–3410 zone, and the deeper 3400–3386 range
Stay alert, trade wisely, and remember — in volatile geopolitical environments,
timing and discipline are more important than ever.