XAU/USD โ Endphase der Circle Wave 1 & Vorbereitung auf die KorrOANDA:XAUUSD
We are currently in the final stages of the yellow (Circle) Wave 1 on Gold.
We have just completed wave 4.
How do I identify wave 4? Simple:
๐ I drew a trendline, and once that trendline was broken, the trend of wave 3 was considered complete.
However, weโve now made a new low, which broke the low of wave 3 โ this could very well be our wave A of wave 4 โ ๏ธ.
Iโm expecting one more final low, potentially around 3252, or even as low as 3200.
But personally, I lean towards ~3252 as the likely target ๐ฏ.
After that, we should see a move upward into the yellow Fibonacci zone of wave 2 ๐ก.
The path from Circle 1 to Circle 2 will likely unfold as a corrective A-B-C structure to the upside ๐.
Following that, we hopefully get a clean five-wave impulse into our (Circle) Wave 3 ๐.
XAUUSDG trade ideas
XAUUSD โ Strong Bullish Reversal from Key Support XAUUSD โ Strong Bullish Reversal from Key Support
Chart Summary:
Gold (XAUUSD) has shown a clear reaction from a strong support zone near 3260, suggesting bullish momentum is gaining strength. The chart highlights multiple key market structure elements and confirms the potential for a bullish move.
Technical Highlights:
๐ป Strong Support Zone (3260โ3280):
Price tapped into a well-defined demand zone with historical significance, initiating a bullish response.
๐บ Resistance Zone (3460+):
A strong resistance level lies ahead. This area may act as a potential target for bulls.
๐ Break of Structure (BOS):
Multiple BOS marks on the chart indicate trend shifts and liquidity grabs. Most recent BOS aligns with potential reversal.
๐น Bullish Fair Value Gap (FVG):
A bullish FVG near mid-structure confirms institutional interest and adds confluence to the upside move.
๐ Target: 3,366.984 USD
Marked as the next probable short-term liquidity target. If momentum sustains, price may approach resistance above this.
Price Expectation:
If the current bullish momentum holds above the strong support zone, we may see a rally towards 3,366โ3,400 USD.
This move could be driven by:
Buy-side liquidity grab above prior highs
Breakout traders entering above BOS
Reaction to macroeconomic calendar (highlighted on the chart)
โ
Educational Takeaway:
This is a textbook example of:
Support-resistance flip
Liquidity concepts (Buy-Side Liquidity)
Fair Value Gaps usage
Volume Profile confluence
July 31, 2025 - XAUUSD GOLD Analysis and Potential OpportunitySummary:
The Fed held interest rates unchanged, and Powellโs remarks reduced the likelihood of a rate cut in September โ this is fundamentally bearish for gold. Until new fundamental developments emerge, the strategy remains: sell on rallies into resistance.
After reviewing the 4H chart, I see two possible scenarios:
Price continues down to 3245, pulls back to 3283, then resumes the drop toward 3245 or even lower.
Price pulls back immediately toward 3300, then resumes the downtrend toward 3245.
These are ideal cases โ I will still wait for clear confirmation before taking action.
๐ Key Levels to Watch:
โข 3323 โ Resistance
โข 3309 โ Resistance
โข 3300 โ Psychological level
โข 3283 โ Key resistance
โข 3268 โ Short-term support
โข 3260 โ Support
โข 3245 โ Major support
โข 3233 โ Support
๐ Intraday Strategy:
โข SELL if price breaks below 3268 โ target 3265, then 3260, 3255, 3250
โข BUY if price holds above 3283 โ target 3289, then 3295, 3300, 3305
๐ If you find this helpful or traded using this plan, a like would mean a lot and keep me motivated. Thanks for the support!
Disclaimer: This is my personal view, not financial advice. Always use proper risk control.
Why do you always miss the real opportunities?Judging from the current gold trend, gold rose to a high of around 3368 and then entered a narrow range of fluctuations. Our previous long plan failed to continue to hold at the high level. Although some brothers may feel regretful, the market is always full of variables. We must flexibly adjust our thinking according to market changes. At present, there is a need for a retracement on the technical side. This retracement is not a trend reversal, but provides space for subsequent bullish momentum. Overall, the bullish trend is still dominant, but the current price is approaching the important pressure area of 3370-3385. The short-term carrying capacity has weakened, and it is not advisable to chase highs blindly. It is recommended to be cautious at high levels in operations. In the short term, it can be given priority to try to intervene with short positions in batches in the 3370-3385 area, waiting for a technical correction. If it subsequently retraces to the key support area of 3350-3335 and stabilizes, you can consider the long position layout again and continue to participate in the main bull trend.
Gold operation suggestion: short in batches in the 3370-3385 area, with the target at 3355-3350. If it falls back to the 3350-3335 area and stabilizes, consider entering a long position at the right time.
Gold Surges on Non-Farm Data; 3330 Key Next WeekGold was strongly boosted by the significantly bullish non-farm payroll data, surging sharply like a rocket ๐, with gains that completely "wiped out" all the weekly losses. The current gold trend, as if injected with super momentum, has completely broken the previous long-short stalemate. Starting from the 3300 level, it has been breaking through obstacles all the way up to 3350. At present, 3330 is like a critical "battleground" โ๏ธ fiercely contested by both long and short sides.
This week, when gold was still "lingering" below 3300, I emphasized repeatedly that a rebound was inevitable โ we just needed to stay calm and wait for the opportunity. As it turns out, our judgment was spot on, and we successfully took profits around 3340, reaping good gains ๐ด. Now, gold prices are oscillating back and forth in the 3340-3350 range. Based on a comprehensive analysis of the current trend, I boldly predict that gold is likely to pull back to around 3330 next week, so everyone can prepare in advance ๐ค
โก๏ธโก๏ธโก๏ธ XAUUSD โก๏ธโก๏ธโก๏ธ
๐ Sell@ 3350
๐ TP 3330 - 3320 - 3310
๐ Buy@ 3300 -3310
๐ TP 3320 - 3330 - 3340
Daily updates bring you precise trading signals ๐ When you hit a snag in trading, these signals stand as your trustworthy compass ๐งญ Donโt hesitate to take a lookโsincerely hoping theyโll be a huge help to you ๐ ๐
GOLD trades in narrow range after 4 sessions of sharp declineOn Tuesday (July 29), in the Asian market, the spot OANDA:XAUUSD traded in a narrow range after yesterday's sharp decline, and the current gold price is around 3,315 USD/ounce.
The OANDA:XAUUSD fell to its lowest level in nearly 3 weeks on Monday, mainly due to the trade agreement reached between the United States and the European Union over the weekend, which boosted the Dollar and risk sentiment.
The previous report released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the number of US JOLTS jobs unexpectedly increased in May, reaching the highest level since November last year.
The number of JOLTS job vacancies in the US in May was 7.769 million, far exceeding the forecast of all economists surveyed.
Looking back at the data in April, the number of JOLTS job vacancies also showed an unexpected increase.
The JOLTS jobs report is a closely watched labor market data by the Federal Reserve.
In addition, the Conference Board of America's Consumer Confidence Index for July is scheduled to be released on the same day and is expected to be 95.8, compared to the previous value of 93.0.
The fundamental pressure that gold is under
OANDA:XAUUSD came under pressure yesterday and fell to a near three-week low, mainly due to the trade deal between the United States and the European Union (EU) over the weekend, which boosted the Dollar and risk sentiment. Moreover, US President Trump announced โglobal tariffsโ of 15% to 20% on most countries, a change from his previous statement last week.
The deal reached by U.S. President Donald Trump and the European Union late last week will impose a 15% tariff on EU goods, half the rate Trump had threatened, easing fears of a wider trade war.
The U.S. and Japan also reached a deal last week, and U.S. and Chinese officials resumed talks in Stockholm, Sweden, this week with the goal of extending the tariff deadline by 90 days.
Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
Gold has been on a four-day losing streak, a decline that threatens bullish expectations as its current position gradually deprives it of any room for further upside.
Specifically, gold has recovered from the psychological level of $3,300 but the actual recovery is not significant, while it is under pressure from the EMA21 which is currently the closest resistance.
On the other hand, gold has fallen below both the long-term and short-term trend channels. If it continues to sell below the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level, this will confirm a break below the psychological level of $3,300, then the downside target will be around $3,246 in the short term, rather than $3,228.
RSI is pointing down, below 50 and still far from the 20-0 area, also showing that in terms of momentum, gold is also under pressure and there is still a lot of room for decline ahead.
For gold to be eligible for an increase, it needs to at least bring price activity back above the EMA21, back inside the price channels. On the current daily chart, the technical conditions are more inclined towards the possibility of a decrease.
Notable positions will be listed as follows.
Support: 3,310 - 3,300 - 3,292 USD
Resistance: 3,340 - 3,350 - 3,371 USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3355 - 3353โก๏ธ
โ โ Stop Loss 3359
โTake Profit 1 3347
โจ
โTake Profit 2 3341
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3285 - 3287โก๏ธ
โ โ Stop Loss 3281
โTake Profit 1 3293
โจ
โTake Profit 2 3299
Potential bearish drop?The Gold (XAU/USD) has reacted off the pivot and could drop to the 1st support.
Pivot: 3,306.31
1st Support: 3,239.07
1st Resistance: 3,357.09
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
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GOLD for todayHello to all traders. ๐๐
I hope all your deals will hit their targets. ๐๐
Based on yesterdayโs analysis (link in the caption), we can expect gold to make a small upward move towards the 3335โ3345 zone to collect sell orders in that area, and then potentially drop with more strength.
As you can see on the chart, the previous bearish move was strong, while the recent bullish move from yesterday until now has been slow and weak.
๐๐ The main reason for expecting this drop is the break of a key trendline on the 4H timeframe.
Iโve marked the entry point and stop-loss in red, and the targets in blue on the chart.
๐ Donโt forget to apply proper risk management!
โ Important: If a 1H candle closes above 3350 without giving us a valid entry beforehand, this analysis will be consideredย invalid.
What Do You Think?
Which scenario do you think is more likely to happen? **Share your thoughts!** โฌ๏ธ
Don't forget that this is just an analysis to give you an idea and trade with your own strategy. And don't forget the stop loss๐๐๐
โค๏ธโค๏ธโค๏ธThe only friend you have in financial markets is your stop lossโค๏ธโค๏ธโค๏ธ
Please support me with your โ
' like'โ
and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ๐๐
Be Happy , Ali Jamali
Gold - Sell around 3345, target 3320-3301Gold Market Analysis๏ผ
Gold has been in a correction over the past two days, with repeated ups and downs, generally trending towards a low and then a rebound. Yesterday, we insisted on selling at 3320, 3326, and 3328, but the profits weren't significant. The daily chart doesn't clearly indicate stabilization or a reversal of trend. Looking at the longer-term trend, I still insist on buying if 3345 breaks. If it doesn't break, we can hold on to the bearish trend. We previously mentioned that 3300 is support on the daily and weekly charts. A technical rebound and correction after selling below this level is inevitable and a normal technical correction. Furthermore, starting Wednesday, big data will be released one by one, and the market is waiting for the data to guide its direction. The weekly chart is also confused and directionless. We're just small investors; we need to follow, not speculate. The 5-day moving average on the daily chart has dipped below 3335, a level that has been retested multiple times in the Asian session. The current correction range is 3300-3335, with resistance around 3345-3343. The daily chart closed positive again, suggesting that the support below may be difficult to break in the short-term Asian session, and a significant decline is unlikely. We anticipate continued correction pending the ADP results.
Support is 3311 and 3301, resistance is 3345, with minor resistance at 3335. The dividing line between strength and weakness is 3335.
Fundamental Analysis:
Today, focus on the ADP employment data and the EIA crude oil inventory data. The US interest rate results are the highlight, along with the speech.
Trading Recommendation:
Gold - Sell around 3345, target 3320-3301
8/4: Watch Support at 3343โ3337 and Resistance at 3372โ3378Good morning, everyone!
Last Friday, gold rallied strongly, driven by a combination of favorable economic data and bullish technical signals, decisively breaking above the 3337โ3343 resistance zone. During the subsequent pullback, price action remained firm above 3337, followed by a secondary upward move.
From a technical standpoint, the structure suggests the potential for continued upward consolidation, with the possibility of filling the gap near 3396. However, significant resistance remains between 3372 and 3378 โ failure to break through this zone decisively may result in a short-term pullback before further gains.
Key levels to watch:
Initial support: 3348 and 3337โ3343 zone
Major support: 3312โ3300 zone (a break below could signal deeper downside risk)
Trading Strategy:
Focus on intraday setups around these critical areas. Look for buy opportunities on dips as long as support holds, while remaining cautious of sharp pullbacks near strong resistance.
**#XAUUSD H5 Higher Timeframe Analysis**
๐ **#XAUUSD H5 Higher Timeframe Analysis**
What we witnessed today was a **tremendous recovery in Gold ๐ก** after **3โ4 consecutive bearish sessions ๐**.
๐
**Todayโs candle** has **completely flipped the weekly structure**, turning a fully **bearish weekly candle into a bullish one ๐** โ thanks to the **NFP data** that came in **favor of Gold and against the Dollar ๐ตโ**.
๐ However, price is now approaching a **critical confluence zone**:
* ๐งญ A **long-running trendline** (since April)
* ๐ด An **H4 Bearish Order Block**
* ๐ The **Fibonacci Golden Zone (0.50โ0.618)** at **3362โ3372**
๐ **From this level, we have two possible scenarios:**
1๏ธโฃ **Sharp Rejection ๐ป:**
Price may **reverse sharply** from the 3362โ3372 zone and **resume the bearish trend**.
2๏ธโฃ **Breakout & Trap Theory ๐บ:**
If price **sustains above this zone**, it may signal that the recent **3โ4 day drop was a fake breakdown**, designed to **trap sellers** and grab liquidity for a **further upside move**.
โ
**Confirmation will come if we get an H4โH6 bullish candle close above the trendline** and back inside the **buying zone of 3375โ3390**.
๐ **A breakout above the triangle pattern** will likely lead to a **strong bullish continuation ๐๐**.
Gold non-farm payrolls are bullish, long and short positions ana
Rather than envying the fish by the river, it's better to retreat and weave your net. We often envy the wealth others can earn by investing in the gold market. We often watch them enthusiastically investing, but we ourselves are afraid to enter the market. The two major factors that drive the market, technology and news, are a topic of constant debate among investors. To navigate the market, one must master the art of attack and defense to remain rock-solid while remaining at the forefront. As the saying goes, trust me, and I will reward you with profits!
Gold Data is Bullish!
The positive non-farm payroll data sent gold soaring, with gains completely erasing all of the week's losses. Currently, gold's trend has reversed the stagnant bullish and bearish trend. After breaking through the 3300 mark and rising all the way to 3348, it shows no signs of stopping. A further test of the 3370 level is not out of the question!
Due to the strong bullish data, if you don't immediately chase longs or place a breakout long order during the first wave, you'll likely have little chance of a pullback. Therefore, you should remain aggressive in your trading strategies. We recommend a pullback to the 3332-30 level to continue the bullish trend. Upward pressure is expected at 3372-75! The market fluctuates violently, and more real-time entry and exit points are mainly based on Yulia's real-time guidance!
XAU/USD Analysis โ Critical Breakout Zone Approaching 30M Chart๐ XAU/USD Analysis โ Critical Breakout Zone Approaching (30-Minute Chart)
๐ Technical Overview:
Chart Type: 30-minutes
Indicators: Ichimoku Cloud
Key Structures: Supply & Demand Zones, CHoCH, BOS, Trendlines, Triangle Formation
๐ Key Market Observations:
๐ข Demand Zone (Support) ~ $3,300 โ $3,310
This area has been tested multiple times and has shown strength in absorbing selling pressure.
A bullish triangle formation is converging into this zone, suggesting a potential breakout point is near.
๐ด Supply Zone (Resistance) ~ $3,375 โ $3,390
Repeated price rejection from this zone marks it as a strong institutional-level resistance.
Price needs a clean breakout and volume confirmation to push through this level.
๐ Break of Structure (BOS) & Change of Character (CHoCH):
BOS and CHoCH levels are clearly marked, showing a trend shift from bullish to bearish (post-supply test).
The last CHoCH aligns with a lower high, reinforcing bearish dominance unless invalidated.
๐ Symmetrical Triangle Formation:
Price is squeezing between higher lows and lower highs, coiling before a significant breakout.
Two scenarios are outlined:
Bullish Breakout: Clear move above triangle resistance โ test of supply.
Bearish Breakout: Breakdown โ revisit demand zone or even drop toward $3,280โ$3,270.
โ๏ธ Ichimoku Cloud:
Price is currently testing the lower boundary of the Ichimoku cloud.
A bullish breakout into/above the cloud may act as confirmation of a reversal attempt.
๐ก Potential Trade Setups:
โ
Bullish Case:
Trigger: Break and close above $3,335 with volume.
Target 1: $3,375 (Supply Zone)
Target 2: $3,440 (Extended Target)
Invalidation: Rejection from triangle top and close below $3,310.
โ Bearish Case:
Trigger: Break and close below $3,310 (triangle breakdown).
Target 1: $3,280
Target 2: $3,260
Invalidation: Bullish breakout of triangle and flip of previous CHoCH level.
Gold price analysis week 32The recently released Nonfarm data has become an important catalyst, officially breaking the previous bearish wave structure and shaping a completely new uptrend for gold prices. Breaking above the wave 1 peak at the 3315 area is a clear confirmation signal that the downtrend has ended.
In that context, the trading strategy for next week should prioritize buying orders. This rally has the potential to push gold prices to historical peaks if the bullish momentum is maintained with stable trading volume.
Specific trading strategy:
Important support zone: 3333 โ 3315
Short-term resistance zone: 3373 โ 3416
XAUUSD Technical AnalysisTechnical Analysis โ Symmetrical Triangle with Retest
Current Market Situation
The chart shows a symmetrical triangle pattern, which is a continuation pattern often followed by strong directional movement.
The price has broken below the triangle, signaling a potential bearish move.
Currently, the price is in the retest phase of the broken triangle, which is an important area to confirm the bearish trend before continuing downward.
Key Zones
Retest Zone (Pullback): Located between current price and 3,374, which is a strong resistance area.
Targets (TP):
TP1: 3,322.97
TP2: 3,285.87
TP3: 3,262.59
Possible Scenarios
โ
Bearish Scenario (Preferred):
If the price holds below the retest zone, we expect a continuation to the downside towards:
Target 1: 3,322.97
Target 2: 3,285.87
Target 3: 3,262.59
โ Bullish Scenario (Alternative):
A daily close above 3,374 will invalidate the bearish scenario and may trigger a reversal.
Conclusion
The market shows a strong technical indication of a bearish continuation after confirming the retest.
Any daily close above 3,374 would cancel the bearish scenario.
It is recommended to monitor price action closely in the retest zone for confirmation before entering trades.
Gold long: Completion of Cycle degree Wave 4Hello, in this video, I go through Gold Elliott Wave structure on a cycle level (again) before zooming in on the latest 5-waves structure that is Cycle level wave 4. I talk about using existing broken trendlines and how that allows me to determine the strength of a move when there are false breakouts, whether to the upside or the downside.
Lastly, I discuss on how to trade this on the short-term using lower timeframe and price action. Most importantly, where to set the stop and the rationale for it.
Good luck!
Gold Price Analysis July 29๐ XAUUSD ANALYSIS โ IS THE CORRECTION OFFICIALLY STARTING?
Gold has officially broken out of the bullish wave structure and left the rising price channel โ an important technical signal that the bearish correction trend has been activated. This development opens up the possibility of retests of the broken trendline, and if that happens in today's session, this could be a good opportunity to look for SELL entry points in the new trend.
๐ Short-term trading strategy:
Potential selling zone: 3343 โ 3345
Downside target: 3283 first, followed by the strong liquidity zone around 3250
Confirmation of bearish force: Price continues to maintain below the 3375 area โ which will act as an important resistance level. Only when the daily candle closes back above this zone will the uptrend be re-established.
โ
Reverse buying strategy if there is a strong support signal:
Buy trigger zone: Observe the price reaction around the 3285 area - there needs to be a clear bearish rejection signal (pin bar/bullish engulfing candle...)
Deeper buying zone: 3251 - where liquidity is concentrated and there is a possibility of bottom-fishing demand appearing.