XAUUSD:06/06/2025 Update! Gold experienced a decline to 3314 following the release of unexpectedly strong NFP data. However, this decline is unlikely to lead to further price drops below 3314. This is primarily due to the ongoing turmoil within the president’s own political party, which is only just beginning to unfold and will likely intensify in the coming weeks.
Before making any trading decisions, it is advisable to conduct your own analysis. Additionally, the current price action has established an AB=CD pattern, where the price has successfully reversed from point ‘d’. This pattern suggests that waiting for the price to break out could be a prudent strategy for a safe entry.
Three targets have been reasonably set, with the potential to reach target two. However, the target three remains uncertain. The total potential profit from this idea is approximately 1300 pips.
It is also important to monitor the DXY closely. We recommend waiting for the price to complete its bullish correction before taking an entry on gold.
We sincerely hope that this analysis proves beneficial. Please consider liking, commenting, and sharing this post to encourage us to provide more such insights.
Best regards,
Team Setupsfx_
XAUUSDG trade ideas
Is 3500 gold still far away?
💡Message Strategy
Gold prices rose overall this week, with bulls showing strength. This was mainly due to the positive CPI data from the Federal Reserve, the escalation of tensions in the Middle East, the uncertainty of trade tariffs, and strong long-term support from fundamental demand, which led to the continued strong trend of gold prices.
As risk aversion rebounded, gold prices rose rapidly, hitting the upper track of the Bollinger Band, which also caused gold prices to rise by more than 3.6% this week.
📊Technical aspects
As geopolitical tensions in the Middle East intensify over the weekend, gold prices may continue to benefit from risk aversion next week, and gold prices are expected to target $3,500/ounce at the beginning of next week
The key support point is 3408. The current price has broken through and stabilized above 3400, and is expected to run above this level for a period of time. When the first market correction tests around 3420, you can continue to buy. Judging from the cycle operation, there is a high probability of a high-level oscillation market in the 3500/3400 range. Before the Fed's results are announced on Thursday, you can sell high and buy low in this range.
💰 Strategy Package
Long Position:3420-3430
Combined with the current tense situation, you can buy light positions at the opening price, and add positions to make up for the rise when the market falls back to the target point. Don't blindly chase the short position.
GOLD On June 18, 2025, the U.S. Initial Jobless Claims came in at 245,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous 250,000 and in line with forecasts around 246,000.
Interpretation of the Data:
Current Level:
Claims are stabilizing near the highest levels seen in the past eight months but remain historically low overall, indicating the labor market is slowing but still relatively resilient.
Labor Market Momentum:
The slight decline suggests a modest easing in layoffs but also reflects a gradual loss of labor market momentum, consistent with softer hiring trends seen in recent months.
Seasonal and Technical Factors:
Some elevation in claims is attributed to seasonal factors such as summer school breaks allowing non-teaching personnel to claim benefits, and technical adjustments.
Impact on Markets and Fed Policy:
The Fed views stable but slightly elevated claims as a sign that the labor market is cooling but not weakening sharply.
This supports the expectation that the Fed will hold interest rates steady at 4.25%–4.50% in the June 18TH meeting while monitoring future data for signs of further labor market weakening or inflation pressures.
The data reduces immediate pressure for aggressive rate cuts but keeps the door open for gradual easing later in the year if the labor market softens further.
Federal Reserve June 2025 FOMC Decision and Market Implications
1. Federal Funds Rate Decision
The Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate steady at 4.25%–4.50% at its June 18, 2025 meeting, marking the fourth consecutive meeting with no change in rates.
2. FOMC Economic Projections
The Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), including the "dot plot," was released alongside the rate decision.
Key highlights:
Policymakers continue to project two 25-basis-point rate cuts in 2025, but the timing remains data-dependent and could shift if inflation or labor market conditions change.
The Fed’s economic outlook reflects slower growth, slightly higher unemployment, and persistent inflation risks compared to earlier in the year.
The median forecast for core PCE inflation in 2025 is 2.8%, with GDP growth expected at 1.7%.
The unemployment rate is projected to rise modestly, with the labor market showing signs of gradual cooling.
3. FOMC Statement Highlights
The FOMC statement emphasized a data-dependent approach, noting that while inflation is easing, it remains above the 2% target.
The committee acknowledged mixed economic signals: inflation is moderating, but labor market participation has declined and global uncertainties (tariffs, geopolitical tensions) persist.
The Fed reiterated its commitment to maintaining restrictive policy until there is greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward target.
4. FOMC Press Conference (7:30pm)
Chair Jerome Powell reinforced the Fed’s cautious stance, stating that the committee needs to see more evidence of sustained progress on inflation before considering rate cuts.
Powell highlighted that the timing and pace of future rate cuts will depend on incoming data, particularly regarding inflation and labor market trends.
The press conference also addressed external risks, including the impact of tariffs and geopolitical events on the economic outlook.
5. Market and Economic Implications
Bond Yields and Dollar: The decision to hold rates steady, combined with cautious forward guidance, is likely to keep the 10-year Treasury yield and the U.S. dollar relatively stable in the near term.
Rate Cut Expectations: Markets continue to price in the first rate cut for September 2025, but the Fed’s projections suggest a slower and more data-driven path to easing.
Key Risks: Upside risks to inflation (e.g., from energy prices or tariffs) and downside risks to growth (e.g., from labor market softening) remain central to the Fed’s outlook.
6. Summary Table
Federal Funds Rate 4.25%–4.50% (unchanged) No immediate change in borrowing costs
Rate Cut Projections 2 cuts in 2025 (data-dependent) First cut likely in September
Core PCE Inflation 2.8% (2025 forecast) Above target, supports cautious Fed
GDP Growth 1.7% (2025 forecast) Slower growth outlook
Unemployment Rate Gradual increase expected Labor market cooling
Conclusion
The Fed’s June 2025 decision reflects a steady, cautious approach amid persistent inflation and a gradually cooling labor market. The committee remains data-driven, with future rate cuts contingent on clear evidence of sustained progress toward its inflation and employment goals.
#GOLD # DXY
XAU / USD ANALYSIS [Bullish Bias]Gold continues to show strong bullish momentum, supported by key technical levels and favorable market structure. Price action remains constructive above the major support zone, indicating potential for further upside.
I'm closely monitoring the following levels for a high-probability long setup:
Demand Zone / Support Level:
Entry key level: 3375 - 3370
As long as gold holds above this support, the bias remains bullish with potential for a continuation toward higher resistance levels. A break and sustained move above the entry zone would confirm bullish strength and could trigger the next leg up.
Risk management remains key waiting for clear confirmation before entering is advised.
#GOLD, #FOREX , # VeloraFXReal
BTCUSD GOING LONG AFTER A SHIFT IN MOMENTUM ✅ Analysis: Gold has successfully broken its last high (Break of Structure), signaling a potential shift in momentum. I’m looking for a pullback or retest of this break to enter a long position and ride the upward move.
✅ Target: Next key resistance or liquidity area above.
✅ Stop Loss: Just below the last low to minimize risk.
It Wasn’t on a Chart. It Was in My JournalYou don’t become consistent by learning more setups. You become consistent by learning more about yourself.
✍️ The Day I Started Journaling, I Stopped Guessing
I used to chase charts like they owed me something.One moment I was confident. The next, I was doubting everything, not because the market betrayed me, but because I wasn’t keeping track of who I was becoming .
Then I started journaling.
Not just logging wins and losses, but writing what I felt, what I saw, where I rushed, and why I broke my own rules. It changed everything.
What Journaling Gave Me (That Charts Alone Couldn’t)
1. Clarity Over Chaos
Every trade became a lesson. I stopped reacting and started reviewing.
2. Accountability Over Emotion
Writing “I entered out of fear of missing out” hits different when you see it five times in a row. I couldn’t lie to myself anymore.
3. Discipline Over Drama
No more revenge trades. No more “just one more” trades. Journaling made me pause, and that pause saved me more than any setup ever could
It’s Not Just a Journal. It’s a Mirror.
Most traders document price. Few document themselves. And yet that’s where the edge lives, not in more indicators, but in more self-awareness.
My Advice to Any Trader Trying to Break Through
Don’t just journal for results . Journal to understand who you are in the market. Your wins will mean more, and your losses will teach more. And if you're consistent with it, your growth won’t just be measurable. It’ll be undeniable.
The best setups won’t save you if your mindset is undisciplined.And the best mentors can’t help you if you don’t study your own patterns.
Journaling isn’t just about logging trades.It’s about documenting your evolution as a trader, from reactive to intentional, from hopeful to professional. So, if you’re serious about growth: Don’t just screenshot your wins, start writing your journey. That’s where the edge really begins.
Gold is expected to hit 3410-3420 againBecause of the news that Iran hopes to ease the hostile relationship with Israel, gold fell sharply in the short term, then rebounded after touching 3383, and quickly recovered above 3390. From this point of view, the buying support below is strong, and the market sentiment is still high, which limits the downside of gold, and the support of 3390-3380 area is still valid.
Although the bullish momentum of gold has weakened relatively due to the retracement in the short term, as long as gold remains above 3380, it still maintains a strong upward structure; and the retracement only exacerbates the short-term shock trend. Gold is still likely to maintain a shock upward structure and try to touch the 3410-3420 area again. Once gold breaks through 3420 strongly, it is expected to hit the area near 3450 again.
So for short-term trading, I still hold a long position in gold, and there is still a certain profit now. I have to say that if gold can reach the 3410-3420 area as expected, our profits will increase significantly!
GOLD 1H CHART ROUTE MAP UPDATE & TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEKHey Everyone,
Please see our updated 1h chart levels and targets for the coming week.
We are seeing price play between two weighted levels with a gap above at 3318 and a gap below at 3281. We will need to see ema5 cross and lock on either weighted level to determine the next range.
We will see levels tested side by side until one of the weighted levels break and lock to confirm direction for the next range.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 20 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
The swing range give bigger bounces then our weighted levels that's the difference between weighted levels and swing ranges.
BULLISH TARGET
3318
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3318 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGETS
3352
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3352 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3388
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3388 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3428
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3428 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3478
BEARISH TARGETS
3281
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3281 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
3254
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3254 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
3210
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3210 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
3179
3146
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
Weekly Gold Outlook: Signs of Trend Reversal EmergingGold is beginning to show clear signs of a potential bearish phase. The current uptrend is weakening, and a new center of gravity has formed around 3319 on the weekly timeframe. Price is currently moving higher to complete Phase 2, which often precedes a new trend cycle.
A weekly close below 3320, especially after sweeping the upper liquidity zone near 3495, would confirm the start of Phase 3 — historically a trend continuation setup. This suggests that gold could enter a deeper correction phase, potentially resetting for the next bullish leg.
Projected Downside Targets:
Target 1: 3100
Target 2: 3056
Target 3: 2960
Extended Bearish Target: Below 2760 (Accumulation zone for the next uptrend)
This cycle is unfolding on the weekly timeframe, so it may take time to fully develop.
Key Resistance Zones (Sell Interest Areas):
3525–3548: Current resistance zone with signs of profit-taking by large players
3606: Next resistance level
3688: Strong upper resistance where institutional selling interest could intensify
These zones are critical supply areas, and market participants are already showing signs of booking profits around these levels.
GOLD On June 18, 2025, the U.S. Initial Jobless Claims came in at 245,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous 250,000 and in line with forecasts around 246,000.
Interpretation of the Data:
Current Level:
Claims are stabilizing near the highest levels seen in the past eight months but remain historically low overall, indicating the labor market is slowing but still relatively resilient.
Labor Market Momentum:
The slight decline suggests a modest easing in layoffs but also reflects a gradual loss of labor market momentum, consistent with softer hiring trends seen in recent months.
Seasonal and Technical Factors:
Some elevation in claims is attributed to seasonal factors such as summer school breaks allowing non-teaching personnel to claim benefits, and technical adjustments.
Impact on Markets and Fed Policy:
The Fed views stable but slightly elevated claims as a sign that the labor market is cooling but not weakening sharply.
This supports the expectation that the Fed will hold interest rates steady at 4.25%–4.50% in the June 18TH meeting while monitoring future data for signs of further labor market weakening or inflation pressures.
The data reduces immediate pressure for aggressive rate cuts but keeps the door open for gradual easing later in the year if the labor market softens further.
#GOLD
Gold falls back to bullish trendAnalysis of gold trend:
This week, after gold opened at 3450, it gradually fell to 3365, with a range of 100 US dollars. Although the main force of the two trading days was a decline, the bullish trend remained unchanged. In an uncertain environment, there is still a chance of a big rise in the future. From the 4-hour gold chart, gold has continuously appeared in the form of a negative line, and the price continues to run below the short-term moving average, and the short-term moving average forms a downward resistance. It suggests that the bears may continue the downward trend. However, the lower track of the Bollinger band provides some support, so at the 4-hour level, the bears are dominant and gold may continue to extend downward.
The range performance in the 4-hour chart is obvious. On Tuesday, it fell sharply to 3365, which is just the support point of the lower Bollinger track. The performance of weak fluctuations is temporarily below the H4 Bollinger middle track. The range in the short term is 3405-3365. If it breaks 3405 upward, then the 4-hour chart becomes stronger and 3450 can be seen above. This possibility is very high because the market will have performance news at any time. However, if it falls below 3365, there is still a possibility of going to 3350 in the daily cycle. Therefore, there is actually no absolute certainty for gold in this cycle. For the intraday market, it is recommended to accumulate in the short term. In the case of no new lows, the 3370 support is an opportunity to go long. If it does not break 3405 above, it is necessary to break 3405 in the short term to get out of the trend strength.
Gold operation strategy:
1. Short gold rebounds near 3395-3393, stop loss 3403, target 3370-3364;
2. It is recommended to buy gold when it falls back to around 3370, with a stop loss of 3360 and a target of 3390-3400;
15.06.2025Gold has recently dazzled markets, surging past $3,400 per ounce, propelled by a potent mix of geopolitical tension and a softer U.S. dollar. Key levels to watch for the next week Support at 3380, Resistance at 3460. the Renewed Middle East tension could drive the price to the new highs at 3660 on the downside fail of 3380 will bring the price back to 3260 .
Gold June 18, 2025As of today, global financial markets are grappling with synchronized pressures from weak equity sentiment, elevated Treasury yields, central bank guidance, and commodity driven inflation expectations. The backdrop is heavily influenced by geopolitical volatility, a wave of global economic prints (Japan, Eurozone, and the U.S.), and FOMC projections signaling that the Federal Reserve remains cautious despite signs of inflation easing.
In Japan, economic data pointed to a mixed recovery. The Reuters Tankan Index declined from 8 to 6, reflecting some weakness in manufacturing sentiment. However, Core Machinery Orders YoY posted a robust +6.6% vs. 4.0% forecast, while Exports contracted -1.7% and Imports plunged -7.7%, reducing the trade deficit significantly to -637.6B yen from -893B. These readings signal that despite external weakness, Japanese internal machinery demand remains resilient.
Turning to Europe, the eurozone’s inflation data supports a growing disinflation trend. Headline CPI fell to 1.9% YoY from 2.2%, and Core CPI came in at 2.3% YoY vs. 2.7% prior. MoM readings for all CPI measures printed 0.0%, reinforcing that price momentum has stalled. The ECB’s Elderson and Lane both acknowledged this trend, setting the tone for a more dovish summer if wage data aligns.
In the United States, today's schedule was dense with economic catalysts. Housing data was relatively firm: Building Permits came in near expectations (1.42M) and Housing Starts rose to 1.35M, up 1.6%. The labor market remains tight, with Initial Jobless Claims at 246K and the 4-week average holding steady at 240K. These numbers suggest continued economic resilience but not acceleration. The MBA Mortgage Rate stands at 6.93%, continuing to weigh on affordability. The EIA’s oil stock report showed a moderate -2.3M draw in crude, alongside a surprise +1.5M build in gasoline inventories, reflecting downstream bottlenecks more than demand weakness.
The FOMC kept rates at 4.50% as expected, but the new dot plot projects only one cut in 2025, compared to the two previously expected. The Fed’s projections still assume inflation gradually moderating but highlight the risk of delaying easing into late Q4. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for Q2 was unchanged at 3.5%, supporting the narrative of a soft landing without the urgency for rate relief.
Equity markets reacted negatively to this macro landscape. The Dow fell -299 points (-0.70%), the S&P 500 lost -50.3 points (-0.83%), and the Nasdaq 100 dropped -218 points (-1.0%). The VIX spiked 12% to 21.40, pushing back into risk-off territory. All 11 S&P sectors closed lower, with Technology (-1.72%), Healthcare (-1.66%), and Consumer Discretionary (-1.72%) leading the decline. Energy (XLE) was the most resilient sector, closing flat as crude prices held firm. On a YTD basis, Technology still leads at +23.7%, followed by Communications (+25.4%) and Real Estate (+12.7%), but momentum is clearly weakening.
Equity factor performance confirmed the defensive tone. All core size/value/growth matrices were negative, with small-cap value and growth both down -1.1%. Among qualitative factors, only Buybacks (+0.3%) and IPOs (unchanged) showed stability. Private equity, quality, and hedge fund proxies all underperformed. Momentum and low volatility outperformed slightly intraday, which often precedes late cycle rotations into capital preservation.
In fixed income, U.S. Treasury yields remained firm. The 2Y yield was at 3.956%, 10Y at 4.410%, and 30Y at 4.910%, maintaining a deeply inverted curve. This inversion continues to reflect recession hedging, although long-end yields are now rising on supply pressure. Treasury ETFs showed a modest recovery: TLT +1.22%, TLH +1.12%, and TIPs +0.52%, benefiting from short-covering after recent oversold levels. Investment-grade credit was strong: LQD +0.36%, Senior Loans +0.37%, and High Yield (HYG) was flat. Convertible bonds (CWB) remained under pressure at -0.50%, consistent with the growth unwind.
Globally, developed markets declined broadly. The U.K. (EWU -1.2%), France (EWQ -1.4%), and Germany (EWG -1.3%) fell in tandem, echoing weak eurozone demand. Japan (EWJ -0.82%) and Australia (EWA -0.92%) also pulled back. Emerging markets underperformed significantly: China (FXI -1.6%), Brazil (EWZ -0.70%), and South Korea (EWY -2.60%) declined on risk aversion and a stronger U.S. dollar.
Commodities provided a mixed signal. Crude oil spiked intraday, with WTI at $74.94 (+4.4%) and Brent at $73.71 (+4.6%), as geopolitical risk flared and stockpiles tightened. Heating oil rose +2.27%, while gasoline gained +1.34%. Natural gas added +0.81% on weather and storage expectations. Gold remained flat at $3,387.83, while silver outperformed with a +0.32% move. In agriculture, soybeans and wheat bounced, but corn (-0.88%) and sugar (-3.64%) slid on oversupply concerns.
Yields globally show differentiated behavior. The U.S. 10Y yield is 4.41%, Germany’s 10Y stands at 2.53%, and the U.K. 10Y trades at 4.56%. The yield spread between U.S. and Japan remains wide, supporting USD/JPY structurally. The U.S. 30Y yield has stabilized at 4.91%, while Japan’s 30Y is at 2.93%. This spread continues to support carry trades and reinforces the need for Japan to intervene if the yen weakens past 145.
All in all, markets are shifting into a cautious consolidation phase. The Fed's steady hand, modest disinflation in Europe, firm labor data, and rising real yields all point to a delicate balance. Investors should stay underweight long-duration bonds unless auction demand improves. Sector-wise, focus should remain on energy and defensives, while trimming growth and discretionary exposure. Commodities offer upside potential amid geopolitical risk, and real assets remain in favor.
GOLD Intraday Chart Update For 13 June 25Hello Traders,
First of all congratulations to all of you as 3430-40 zone GAP filled today but sad new is war scenarios resume
so advise for you is take limited risks
all eyes on 3450 Psychological level breakout, intraday expected range is 3400-3450 if markets break 3450 then it will move towards 3480
if market breaks 3400 successfully then it will move back towards 3370 or even 3355
Disclaimer: Forex is Risky
Can we look for longs in XAUUSD? Here's a multi-timeframe POVHello traders , here is the full multi time frame analysis for this pair, let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions , the entry will be taken only if all rules of the strategies will be satisfied. wait for more price action to develop before taking any position. I suggest you keep this pair on your watchlist and see if the rules of your strategy are satisfied.
🧠💡 Share your unique analysis, thoughts, and ideas in the comments section below. I'm excited to hear your perspective on this pair .
💭🔍 Don't hesitate to comment if you have any questions or queries regarding this analysis.
XAUUSD Expecting Selling movementPrice Level & Trend
Current price $3380
The market has been forming lower highs and lower lows, suggesting a bearish trend continuation
A yellow zigzag line projects a possible downward price movement path
Resistance Zone
A red rectangular zone marks a strong resistance area, previously tested multiple times and rejected
Price failed to break above this zone, reinforcing the bearish outlook
Support & Target Levels
Three significant horizontal support levels are marked
Level 1 $3,368
Level 2 $3,356
Final Target Zone Around $3344 $3344
The final target is emphasized with an orange Target label and arrow, indicating the expected destination for this bearish move
Projection
The chart anticipates short-term pullbacks retracements followed by further downside
This is visualized through the yellow zigzag pattern illustrating probable future price action
IS GOLD AT REVERSAL OR NEW HIGHS COMING ?Geopolitical tension raised between Iran & Israel which gives pump to gold so what do we expect now ? new highs of $3700 , $4000 or reversal ? in my opinion if gold doesn't breaks it's previous high with the body it might be a signal of LH & LL series.
Area to watch for reversal : $3468 - $3482
GOLD DAILY CHART ROUTE MAPHey Everyone,
Following up on our previous analysis, price action has continued to respect our Goldturn channel beautifully. After the strong move to 3272, we saw another push toward the channel top near 3433. However, just before completing the move, price was met with another sharp rejection, highlighting the strength of the range and the precision of our channel levels.
The key takeaway here is that 3272 is still providing solid support, and the price remains well contained within our defined range between 3272 and 3433. This reaffirms our strategy of buying dips near the lower end of the range rather than chasing strength near the top.
We remain focused on trading within this range, using our weighted Goldturns to guide entries on the lower timeframes (1H and 4H). As long as the structure holds, we’ll continue to target quick 30–40 pip intraday moves while positioning ourselves for a potential breakout scenario when the time is right.
This is the beauty of our Goldturn channels, drawn using weighted averages instead of pure price action. This unique approach helps us clearly identify fake outs and real breakouts, cutting out much of the noise that usually confuses traders.
Keep an eye on how price behaves around 3272 and 3433. A clean break and close above the channel top would be significant but until then, range play remains our primary game plan.
Let’s stay patient and disciplined.
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
Will ASIA favor BULLS or BEARS?Two “if-this-then-that” scenarios
If price pushes above the recent swing high (~3 430–3 435)
→ Look for a move toward the 50% retracement zone at 3 415–3 416 (our next upside target).
If price drops below the recent swing low (~3 356–3 357)
→ It’ll likely slide down to the 21-day EMA at 3 342, which has acted like a magnet/bounce area.
Why the 21-day EMA matters
It’s sloping up beneath price (green trendline), so dips into it often spark fresh buying.
A buy-limit order around 3 342 gives you a low-risk entry with the trend still intact.
Overall bias
As long as gold stays above that rising trendline/21 EMA, the bulls remain in control.
Break the swing high → more upside.
Break the swing low → deeper pullback into support.
Gold Pulls Back After Testing Resistance📊 Market Overview:
Gold fell to a low of $3,374 earlier today after testing the $3,434 resistance late last week. The drop was primarily due to profit-taking near recent highs, alongside a mild recovery in the US dollar. Despite this pullback, the medium-term uptrend remains supported by expectations of upcoming Fed rate cuts and persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
📉 Technical Analysis:
• Key Resistance: $3,434 – $3,450
• Nearest Support: $3,374 – $3.360
• EMA: Price remains above both EMA 09 and EMA 20, suggesting a continuation of the short-term bullish trend.
• Candlestick / Volume / Momentum:
o RSI is holding around 61–63, no longer in overbought territory.
o MACD remains positive, though upward momentum has slowed.
o Bearish candles during the Asian session suggest lingering sell pressure near $3,430. A technical rebound from $3,374 is currently underway.
📌 Outlook:
Gold may consolidate between $3,370–$3,390 in the near term. If the $3,360 support holds, a rebound toward $3,420–$3,440 is likely. However, a stronger USD could increase downside pressure.
💡 Suggested Trade Strategy:
🔻 SELL XAU/USD at: $3,410 – $3,420
🎯 TP: $3,385
❌ SL: $3,430
🔺 BUY XAU/USD at: $3,374 – $3,378
🎯 TP: $3,400 – $3,420
❌ SL: $3,360
Continue to try to short gold,It's expected to touch 3355-3345 Gold has broken through 3380 twice, but recovered quickly, indicating that the bulls still have some defensive power. At present, gold has touched 3400 again; it can be seen that the bulls' potential defense is still good, but it is not enough to support the continued rebound of gold in the short term. Obviously, gold is still under pressure in the 3410-3420 area in the short term. If gold cannot break through this resistance area in the short term, gold may continue to maintain a volatile state and continue to seek strong support downward. Only after gold breaks through the 3410-3420 area, it is expected to continue to rise and touch the area near 3450 again.
When gold tested the support near 3380 several times during the day and tried to break through this area, after gold failed to break through the 3410-3420 area in the short term, I think gold will be more likely to choose a downward direction, or even continue to test the 3355-3345 area. Therefore, for short-term trading, before breaking through the 3410-3420 area, we should not chase gold too much, and we can try to short gold in this area appropriately.
I think these 2 scenarios can happen for gold to reach new ATHGold supported by Israel-Iran conflict, US intervention in focus
Gold's sharp rise came late last week after Israel struck multiple targets in Iran, including Tehran's nuclear facilities.
The attack sparked fierce retaliation from Iran, which launched a barrage of missiles at key Israeli targets, including the financial capital Tel Aviv. Some of the Iranian missiles were also seen penetrating Israel's "Iron Dome" defense system.
What do you think?
Best regards, StarrOne !!!