GOLD: First Red DayHello traders and welcome back to my channel, as always, don't forget to leave me a like and a comment to support my work, I don't share too much because I constantly try to select best market's template with a great potential of success.
I strongly believe in quality above quantity!
If you have been following me since a while, you should remember that any of my analysis are not a forecast, I'm not interested in understanding and/or predicting what the market is going to do. Why?
Because guessing is literally 50/50 and is not part of my job.
Now, let's talk about GOLD.
I really like the current template and how the new month started, and to me, we can have a great opportunity to see a weekly pump and dump scenario setting up today with NFP or keep moving some more day into the new week.
To understand better the logic behind, let's analyse the market more deeply.
I didn't show in this chart the previous week, but you can have easily a look by yourself and you will realise that it started breaking down in a full week of down move, main reason today I would like to be looking for a short setup (if a short setup will be identified)
Monday, opening range of the week and the month, it was a clear pumping day, triggering long traders in the market and closing out of balance. The market now may be in place and other time frames are potentially involved in the market.
Tuesday, GOLD proceeded pumping higher, especially during the London session, triggering for the second time long traders in the market, and again closing out of balance.
Wednesday it kinda tap the weekly high, but most of all I can see the market consolidating. To me, it's a first sign of potential volume trap up high.
Thursday, the previous daily low was triggered, stopping eventually traders long from Wednesday, which they were trying to keep buying up high, and closing the day as a first red day, which potential can be a sell signal.
Today, Friday, the market is still inside the consolidation, and NFP can be very interesting in terms of completing this pattern, and I will be willing to take a sell high opportunity after the news.
Thesis:
- My main thesis is currently short, is a common weekly template of pump and dump if setup correctly
But obviously, I'm not here trying to predict, this is only the setup I'm looking for.
Yes, the market can keep going higher, in fact, I cannot exclude a scenario of breakout, pullback, continuation, on top of Monday high, which is the opening range of the week.
How do I know which direction is the market taking?
I don't know, until I will see a setup, either a pump and dump (and I will be lookingto short the dump and the weakness of the market).
Either if I can see a dump and pump, I would be willing to buy the strength on the frontside of the pump during NY session.
For better undressing, I will be sharing the intraday perspective during the NY session.
Gianni
