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GOLD / US DOLLAR GRAMGOLD / US DOLLAR GRAMGOLD / US DOLLAR GRAM

GOLD / US DOLLAR GRAM

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XAUUSDG trade ideas

Gold Trading Strategy | July 7-8✅ Key Resistance Zone: $3340–$3345 🔴 Daily Resistance: $3345 is the neckline of a typical “M-top” pattern. On July 7, gold prices surged to $3342 before quickly retreating, indicating strong selling pressure at this level. A valid breakout has not yet occurred. 🔴 4H Chart Resistance Band: The $3338–$3340 zone overlaps with both the 20-day and 60-day moving averages, forming a confluence with the daily resistance. This creates a key short-term ceiling, and unless it's broken, further upside will likely be capped. ✅ Key Support Zone: $3300–$3310 🟢 Weekly Pivot Zone: $3311 is a medium-term pivot level. A daily or weekly close below this level could confirm the start of a broader downward trend. 🟢 Psychological Support: $3300 is a major round-number support and also represents the average cost basis for many short-term long positions. On July 7, the price rebounded after touching a low of $3306, showing that buyers are still active around this level. 🟢 Major Support Band: The $3290–$3295 zone includes the 60-day moving average and previous horizontal support. A breakdown here could trigger technical selling, opening the path toward $3280–$3260. ✅ Trading Strategy 🔰 Break above $3345: Go long, target $3365–$3370, stop loss at $3330. 🔰 Break below $3295: Go short, target $3280–$3260, stop loss at $3310. 🔰 If price stays in $3300–$3340 range: Focus on selling at highs and buying at lows. Favor short-side setups unless resistance is broken. Stop loss at $3350. ✅ Gold remains within a $3300–$3340 trading range, with a short-term technical consolidation pattern. A breakout could be triggered by upcoming policy headlines or geopolitical events (e.g., trade negotiations). ✅ Suggested approach: Use a “light position + key-level stop-loss” strategy. Watch for a breakout above $3345 or a breakdown below $3295 to shift from range trading to trend-following. ✅ Bias remains bearish unless the $3345 resistance is convincingly broken. Until then, rebounds are likely to be short-lived technical corrections—prefer to sell into strength.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by GoldTradingMasterHub
Gold’s Last Push🧠 MACRO OUTLOOK FOR GOLD 1. 📉 Central Bank Rate Sentiment (Macro Risk Bias: Neutral to Bullish Gold) Central Bank Meeting Probable Move Cut Probability Hold Probability Fed Jul 30 Hold 4.7% 95.3% ✅ RBA Jul 8 Cut 94% ❗ BoE Aug 7 Cut 80.8% ❗ ECB Jul 24 Hold 9.3% 90.7% ✅ BoC Jul 30 Hold 26.5% 73.5% ✅ RBNZ Jul 9 Hold 16.9% 83.1% ✅ ✅ Most majors (Fed, ECB, BoC, RBNZ) are expected to hold — gold-friendly ❗RBA and BoE rate cuts ahead — mildly bullish for gold 2. 💸 FED CUT PROJECTION (Through End of 2025) Jul: 93.3% chance to HOLD Sep: 73.1% chance of CUT Oct: 55.9% chance of CUT Dec: 69.9% chance of CUT 🟡 Progressive rate cuts expected by year-end, favoring a longer-term bullish trend on gold ⚙️ VOLATILITY & IMPLIED RANGE (XAUUSD) Implied Volatility: 14.09% Range Estimate Value 1SD High 3355.38 2SD High 3385.78 3SD High 3414.87 🔺 1SD Low 3267.56 2SD Low 3237.73 3SD Low 3209.36 ✳️ Key Resistance: 3385–3415 🛑 Key Support: 3237–3209 Current price at 3336.6 sits mid-range, slightly bullish 📰 FUNDAMENTAL NEWS REACTION (NFP & GOLD) Date NFP Actual vs Forecast Gold Reaction Jul 3 144k vs 126k forecast (Hot) 🔥 -200 ticks Jun 6 139k vs 126k (Hot) 🔥 +36, -104 ticks May 2 177k vs 138k (Hot) 🔥 -105 ticks 🔴 Gold reacted bearishly to strong NFP — Jobs > Forecast = USD strength → Gold weakness 🔍 MARKET FLOWS (MOC) Index Buy Sell Net NASDAQ 345M -86M +258M ✅ MAG7 113M -41M +72M ✅ S&P 500 1055M -1041M +13M DOW 30 106M -168M -62M ❌ 🟢 Risk-on sentiment visible from large NASDAQ & MAG7 inflows 🟡 Caution on S&P 🔴 DOW weak This supports a mild bearish pressure on gold short-term due to risk appetite. ✅ CONCLUSION (For Gold Traders) 🔻Short-Term Outlook (This Week): Bearish bias due to recent strong NFPs + net equity inflows Rate cuts are delayed (Fed holding in July) Expect gold to retest 1SD/2SD lows around 3267–3237 if USD strength persists 🔺Mid-Term Outlook (Q3-Q4 2025): Dovish tilt from major banks (RBA, BoE, Fed by Sep-Dec) supports long-term gold upside Key upside potential into 3385–3415 area if dollar weakens and yields drop
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FaithdrivenTrades
XAUUSD: New-Week Technical Bias (Market Open)Multi-Timeframe Structural Outlook: Higher Timeframes (Monthly, Weekly, Daily): Broad structure remains bullish within an Ascend Sequence, though notable Monthly Price Cap Rejections indicate overhead resistance slowing momentum. Daily & 4H Technical Picture: Value Compression Phase (VCP): Price compresses within 3500 – 2956, with consolidation occurring above mid-range, favoring upside continuation probability. 4H Internal Structure: Aligns with daily compression, showing structural respect of higher lows, maintaining bullish pressure. Above mid-range VCP compression typically signals a breakout potential above 3500. Liquidity Mechanics & Risk Zones: Upside: Early-week bullish lean remains valid, targeting a break and sustained acceptance above 3500, confirming continuation of the Ascend Sequence. Downside Invalidations: A decisive breakdown below Order Clustering Zones (OCZ) and anticipated Trap Vectors (TV), leading price into/below the VCP range low (2956), would signal bearish vulnerability and invalidate bullish continuation. Summary: Early-week bullish bias preferred while price holds above mid-range compression. Breakdown below OCZ & VCP range low triggers trend deterioration signals.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Olamitrades1
Gold – July 11 | H4 & M15 Aligned, Higher Highs in Sight🟡 Gold – Higher Highs in Sight | July 11 Analysis As outlined in our July 10 analysis ( Gold – H4 OB Held, BoS Confirmed ), price retested the 3313–3310.5 POI and continued upward in alignment with the broader bullish structure. Gold is now trading around 3330–3335 , and both H4 and M15 remain in clear uptrends — forming a consistent sequence of higher highs and higher lows . This post is intended purely for educational and structural observation — not as trading advice or encouragement to enter trades. Please use your own strategy, confirmation methods, and risk assessment before taking any action. 🔄 Structure Alignment ✅ H4: Bullish continuation ✅ M15: Trend aligned, forming HH–HL structure 🟢 Bias: Long-only setups (based on structure) 🔍 Key Supply & POI Zones 📌 3345–3346: → Strong supply zone → If price breaks above, we expect a new higher high 📍 If retracement occurs before breaking 3346: → Watch 3319.5–3321.5 (M15 POI) → Valid only if respected with M1 confirmation (ChoCh + BoS) 🎯 Trade Plan (Educational Observation) 🛑 No shorts — structure does not support counter-trading 🕒 Monitor: For price to revisit the 3319.5–3321.5 zone ✅ If respected + M1 confirms → structure favors long 🎯 Target: Move above 3346 , continuing the bullish sequence 🧠 Final Thoughts Price structure remains in strong alignment — but the key is confirmation, not prediction. Wait, observe, and only act within your own defined process. 📖 Trade the structure, not the emotion. When the trend aligns, hesitation costs more than waiting. 📘 Shared by @ChartIsMirror
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ChartIsMirror
Gold continues to short Life is like a thread. As long as today continues and as long as there is hope for tomorrow, we will always be at the starting point and on the road to running. Don't be afraid of the long road, don't complain about the lack of scenery on the roadside, don't despair at any time, just keep running, the bumps under your feet are the cornerstones of our life, and perhaps the turning point is just around the next corner! Gold, on the eve of the US market yesterday, the shorts repeatedly touched the lower support of 3282, but ultimately lacked the momentum to make a final push, which led to a reverse reversal in the US market and a continuous rebound effect. As of the morning of the day, the highest reached near 3326, and the daily line also closed at the bald small positive line of the lower lead. The current upper pressure is maintained at the previous 3330 line. This position will also be related to the continuity of the long and short positions in the later period, and the highest in the morning will also be maintained near this position. For the European market, this position is even more important. Once it continues to break through, the US market will likely continue to rise, and it can also be used as the position of the long and short watershed in the short term, and the recent trend continuity is extremely high. , most of them are maintained in the range of shock operation, and the support below will be maintained at 3310, which is also the key defensive point of the European session. Although the daily line is currently closed at a small positive line, it is still obviously insufficient in power, and the multi-hour line is also maintained in the downward channel without a breakthrough. In the short term, it is still in a bearish situation overall. If there is no breakthrough for a long time, it may continue to fall in the later period. If gold rebounds near the morning high, it can continue to short. If the European session breaks through strongly, it needs to adjust its direction before the US session. If gold rebounds near 3325-26, it can be shorted. The target is around 3310-00, and the loss is 3335! Gold rebounds near 3325-26 during the day, and the target is around 3310-00, and the loss is 3335.
TVC:GOLDShort
by jiqeu1
Gold prices converge, 3300-3330 range breaks?Gold prices converge, 3300-3330 range breaks? The following current events may become catalysts for gold price changes: Trump announced on social media that August 1 is the deadline for "reciprocal tariffs" and mentioned that he plans to impose a 200% tariff on medicines and a 50% additional tax on copper. The market quickly digested the expectation of escalating trade conflicts. The market expects that Trump may threaten to increase tariffs to force other countries to make concessions, but may eventually extend the deadline. If the breakdown of negotiations triggers risk aversion, gold prices may hit $3,400; if a small agreement is reached, gold prices may fall back to $3,300. Focus: July 11 US CPI data: will verify inflation stickiness and affect the direction of real interest rates. If CPI is lower than 2.8%, it may strengthen expectations of interest rate cuts and boost gold prices; if it is higher than 3.0%, it may suppress gold performance. Fed policy signal: The minutes of the June FOMC meeting released on July 11 may provide more details about the internal differences in the interest rate decision. In addition, Powell's recent statement shows that he is cautious about interest rate cuts. If this position continues, gold prices may temporarily fall into a volatile pattern. Optimistic scenario (probability 30%): The United States and Japan reach a small agreement, and the price of gold falls back to $3,300; Pessimistic scenario (probability 50%): The breakdown of negotiations triggers risk aversion, and the price of gold hits $3,400; Extreme scenario (probability 20%): Trump restarts tariffs on China, triggering the price of gold to hit the previous high of $3,450. Technical analysis: As shown in the figure: 4-hour cycle Gold prices converge, range oscillation: 3,300-3,330 This range will determine the direction of the next trend of gold prices. As the oscillation space becomes narrower and narrower, it is expected that a new round of market will break out today or at the latest this Friday. The author believes that if the bullish tone of the macro trend remains unchanged, the price of gold may still break upward. There is a high probability that the high of $3,400 will be hit again this week. Of course, we must respect all possible scenarios. Intraday trading strategy: Long strategy: Buy: 3310-3315 Stop loss: 3295 Target: 3330-3350-3400 Short strategy: Sell: 3325-3330 Stop loss: 3335 Target: 3315-3310-3300-3285-3250 The market is currently volatile, but the focus of gold price trading is on trends rather than prices. When emotions strike, the direction of making money is the key.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by louisa111222
GOLD PULLS BACK TO TREND LINE AND RE-ENTERS BUY ZONE!Hey Traders so looking at Gold right now seems like we are consolidating at 3310 looking for direction. However I think the trend is still up because if you look close at support levels 3240 it has rejected that level twice. Of course markets can flip on a dime when something unpredictable happens in this tariff driven environment so we still need to be cautious. Seasonally Gold Rises in the Summer from a historical standpoint. But watch out to see what happens at todays FED meeting. So if your Bullish this is the place to buy cautiously consider small position on an aggressive entry and put stop below 3230 which looks like it could be good level. Or if conservative wait until after FED meeting to see how market reacts off this level and they buy again on a pullback if market reacts positive. However if Bearish I would wait for a daily close and break below 3215 or 3200 before considering selling. Good Luck & Always use Risk Management! (Just in we are wrong in our analysis most experts recommend never to risk more than 2% of your account equity on any given trade.) Hope This Helps Your Trading 😃 Clifford
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by TradeTheIndex
Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar - 1h Analysis (OANDA)Price Overview Current Price: 3,286,190 24h Change: +15,525 (+0.47%) Recent High/Low: High: 18,286,420 Low: 12,284,465 Order Block (OB) Analysis Profit Targets: Multiple profit levels are identified, with the highest at 3,339,000 and the lowest at 3,279,000. The price is currently between the 3,286,190 (current) and 3,279,000 (next profit level), suggesting a potential pullback or consolidation. Entry & Stop-Loss: Entry: 3,270,000 Stop-Loss (S/L): 3,270,000 (same as entry, indicating a break-even or tight risk strategy). Key Levels (USD) Resistance: 3,350,000 (major) 3,339,000 (immediate) Support: 3,286,190 (current level) 3,279,000 (next profit target) 3,270,000 (critical support & entry) Market Sentiment Bullish Bias: Price is above the entry point (3,270,000) and showing a 0.47% gain. Caution: Profit-taking may occur near 3,330,000–3,339,000. A break below 3,270,000 could invalidate the bullish setup. Actionable Insights If Long: Hold for targets up to 3,339,000, but monitor for rejection at resistance. If Neutral: Wait for a break above 3,330,000 (confirmation) or below 3,270,000 (reversal signal). Risk Management: Tight stop-loss at 3,270,000 protects against downside.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Tdawly_Official
XAUUSD ANALYSIS💸GOLD💸 📉 Trend Overview • Prior Structure: Market was in a strong downtrend, shown by descending highs and lower lows. • Break of Structure: Price broke out of the descending trendline, indicating a potential bullish reversal or at least a deeper correction. • Current Structure: The market is consolidating after an impulsive bullish move, forming a range or re-accumulation. ⸻ 🔍 Key Observations ✅ Break of Downtrend • Price has clearly broken the descending trendline — first sign of bullish strength. • After the break, price created a higher high and pulled back — confirming a market structure shift. 📌 Fair Value Gap (FVG) & Buy Zone • FVG identified below current price — this is often a liquidity gap where institutions may return to mitigate orders. • The Buy Zone aligns with the FVG — making it a high-probability demand area. • Price could wick into this zone before making the next bullish leg. 🧱 Range Formation • Multiple touches at resistance (marked by “X”) indicate price is currently accumulating liquidity. • Consolidation within a clear range suggests build-up before breakout. ⸻ 📈 Possible Scenarios 🟩 Bullish Case • Price revisits the Buy Zone / FVG area. • Bullish reaction from this zone can lead to a break above the consolidation range. • First target: previous high / top of the chart projection (marked with an arrow). • Extended target: Implied liquidity above the highest resistance zone. 🟥 Bearish Invalidations • A clean break below the Buy Zone and failure to react at the FVG suggests: • Weak bullish momentum. • Potential return to lower lows. ⸻ ✅ Confluences Supporting Longs • Market Structure Break. • FVG + Demand Zone alignment. • Trendline breakout. • Range liquidity building up. • Higher low formation. ⸻ 🕵️‍♂️ What to Watch For • Bullish engulfing or reversal pattern in the Buy Zone. • Breakout candle with volume above consolidation. • Retest of broken structure for confirmation.
CAPITALCOM:GOLDLong
by Brehayne_
XAUUSD - Liquidity Sweep & Smart Money Play | Dual Setup BreakdoFOREXCOM:XAUUSD Liquidity Sweeps Smart Money Concepts (SMC) Trendline Liquidity Demand/Order Blocks Risk-Reward Structure 🔻 First Trade Idea – Short Position (Sell Setup) 🧠 Psychology & Liquidity Insight: The market formed equal lows before a sudden rally which attracted retail traders. Price created a bearish structure with lower highs, signaling weakness. A strong liquidity sweep occurred by breaking trendline liquidity twice (as shown by red lines), targeting early buyers' stop losses. A supply zone (red box) was respected near 3337, providing an ideal entry point for shorting. 📉 Trade Logic: Entry: Near 3336.93 (Supply Zone) SL: Above 3344.14 (Liquidity Sweep zone) TP: 3328.62 / 3325.64 (Targeting demand imbalance & internal liquidity) R:R: Approx. 1:2+ 🔺 Second Trade Idea – Long Position (Buy Setup) 🧠 Psychology & Liquidity Insight: After the initial selloff, price taps into the demand zone (blue box) created by the last impulsive move. Internal liquidity is built again near 3328–3330, where retail traders expect a continued fall — ideal for smart money to reverse. Price is expected to accumulate and reverse with a strong rally toward the upper liquidity resting above 3344. 📈 Trade Logic: Entry: Near 3328.62 (Demand Zone Tap) SL: Below 3325.64 TP: 3344.14 (Major Liquidity Target) R:R: Over 1:3 – a high-quality reversal play. 🎯 Why This Trade Setup is Powerful: ✅ Both trades are liquidity-driven, not just indicator-based. ✅ Incorporates smart money logic and price structure. ✅ Clear risk-to-reward, validated by price behavior and institutional order flow.
FXOPEN:XAUUSDLong
by Jamtara_Trader
Trump Policy Shock & Fed Cut Buzz Ignite Gold🔥 Fundamental Drivers 📢 Trump Tariff Announcements (via Truth Social & WH releases): 25% tariffs on Japan and South Korea effective August 1. Targeted retaliatory threats for BRICS-aligned nations. Executive orders signed and trade letters sent. ➡️ Market reads this as risk-off & inflationary = Gold strength. 📉 Goldman Sachs Predicts Early Fed Rate Cuts: Fed terminal rate cut forecast lowered to 3.3-3.25%. Cuts expected to begin as early as September, citing: Softening labor data Weakening inflation trajectory ➡️ Rate cut bets weaken USD = gold demand spikes. 🧊 DXY Reaction: Dollar Index cooled after initial rise — confirms market shift away from USD haven toward gold hedging.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by FaithdrivenTrades
7/7: Key Zone – 3320 to 3350Good morning, everyone! Due to the U.S. market closure on Friday, price movement remained relatively subdued, and the week concluded with modest gains. As of this morning, gold opened higher but has since pulled back, and the price remains in a consolidation phase. Key technical levels for today: Resistance: around 3350 Support: near 3321 Short-term traders may focus on range-bound strategies between these levels. If a breakout occurs, follow the trend accordingly: If price breaks above and stabilizes above 3338, the market may shift its focus toward the 3400 psychological level; If price drops below and holds under 3332, there’s potential for a retest of the 3260 support zone. In terms of broader trend analysis, the MA20 and MA60 on the daily chart should be watched closely, as they currently serve as key dynamic resistance and support levels. Lastly, stay alert to any developments related to trade tariffs, as such news may significantly impact market sentiment and gold price direction.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by China_MsWang
WEEK PLAN|Will This Gold Rally Collapse Into a Liquidity Trap ? Gold remains trapped between high-liquidity resistance and a strong order block below. While short-term bullish structure is forming, the weekly outlook remains complex due to upcoming high-impact events from the Fed and US labour data. Expect volatility and traps in both directions. 🧠 Fundamental Context FOMC Meeting Minutes (Wed 9 July): Market will look for rate cut clues. Unemployment Claims (Thu 10 July): A stronger labour market = stronger USD = bearish for gold. FOMC Member Waller Speaks (Thu 10 July): Any hawkish tone could cap gold upside. 📊 Key Zones Zone Role Notes 3,387 – 3,439 Sell Zone High liquidity, weak highs, ideal reversal trap 3,240 – 3,260 Buy Zone Strong OB, liquidity sweep, aligned with trendline support 3,365 Weekly High May reject or break based on macro catalyst 🛠️ Trade Setups (Entry Zones as Requested) ✅ 1. BUY GOLD Entry: 3,346 – 3,344 Stop Loss: 3,340 TP1: 3,356 TP2: 3,366 TP3: 3,376+ (Open Target) Rationale: Scalping long off micro demand, aiming for a short-term spike above liquidity. ✅ 2. BUY GOLD SCALPING Entry: 3,291 – 3,289 Stop Loss: 3,285 TP1: 3,299 TP2: 3,310 TP3: 3,320+ (Open Target) Rationale: Buy on breakout momentum before hitting higher sell-side zones. ✅ 3. SELL GOLD Entry: 3,389 – 3,391 Stop Loss: 3,396 TP1: 3,381 TP2: 3,371 TP3: 3,361 (Open Target) Rationale: Fade the breakout — fakeout zone targeting liquidity void beneath. ✅ 4. SELL GOLD Entry: 3,349 – 3,351 Stop Loss: 3,355 TP1: 3,339 TP2: 3,329 TP3: 3,319 (Open Target) Rationale: Short off weak rally, playing potential rejection near intraday high. 📅 This Week’s Events Date Event Likely Impact 9 July FOMC Minutes Fed tone → volatility spike 10 July Jobless Claims (233K) Strong number = gold downside 10 July FOMC Waller Speech Additional risk-on/risk-off flows ⚠️ Trading Strategy Use H1–H4 confirmations (CHoCH, BOS, FVG) before entries. Avoid entries 1h before and after red news. Focus on 3,260–3,439 range as key decision area for the week.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by EliseLunaTraders