XAUUSD Where are we in the Wyckoff cycle?We are between Phase B and Phase C of a potential Distribution on the higher range (around $3400.
Here's the breakdown:
Buying Climax (BC) and Automatic Reaction (AR) are well-formed.
We are now waiting for the confirmation of the Secondary Tests and also a potential Upthrust Actions near the top around $3400 area.
Next logical sweep target will be Buy-side liquidity above PDH area.
Possibly creating Secondary test for confirmation.
Then it should trigger a markdown phase.
If distribution fails, Smart Money would invalidate the entire range with a full Breakout + Retest + Continuation above 3,400 but low probability without more volume or wars.
Two scenarios here:
Bearish (Higher Probability)
Idea: Wait for a Secondary Test or Lower High around the resistance/POI near 3,390–3,396
Entry: Short on rejection or bearish M5 structure break after tagging that area
SL: Above 3,400 (or 30-40 pips above ST candle wick)
TP1 = 3377 (gap close)
TP2 = 3360 (Daily Gap)
TP3 = 3338 (PDL retest)
🟩 Bullish (Only if invalidation happens)
Idea: If we break above 3400 clean and hold on retest, it means Phase D of Accumulation started instead.
Entry: Long on retest of 3400 as support
SL: Below 3400
TP: Trail it...
Stay reactive around 3,390–3,396 for short opportunity only if price shows signs of failure there.
By the time it took me to post this idea the price has already move up 100 pips.
Trade safely!!
XAUUSDG trade ideas
GOLD: Strong Bearish Sentiment! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse GOLD together☺️
The price is near a wide key level
and the pair is approaching a significant decision level of 3,368.04 Therefore, a strong bearish reaction here could determine the next move down.We will watch for a confirmation candle, and then target the next key level of 3,359.44..Recommend Stop-loss is beyond the current level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
Gold delivering excellent Scalp opportunities Fundamental analysis: Gold was among the losers (Short-term) of the Fed's decision this throughout yesterday’s session for then first time within #8-Month period. Valuable ground's given and #3,400.80 benchmark looks unreachable for at least this week’s borders. Fed kept rates unchanged, and signaled that current Rate would continue through #2025 to support the next phase of the economic recovery. Investors clearly show their interest to try riskier assets like equities and as long as DX is without a recovery (currently on steep Descending Channel), Gold will keep constantly deliver Bull spikes. Daily chart turned Neutral with Resistance level priced at #3,395.80 - #3,400.80 and if invalidated I expect historic upside potential of Gold (my estimations show even #3,452.80 and #3,500.80 in succession within #2 - #3 Month variance). Quarterly Investors will pressure on the Resistance based on Bullish Fundamental outlook on Gold. However with Gold’s Technicals critically Bearish, I won’t be surprised to see values below #3,352.80 benchmark tested and invalidated.
My position : I have monitored the Price-action from sidelines and spotted few patterns however didn’t engaged as my Profit range is already decent. However I spotted excellent post-Fed opportunity and Bought Gold aggressively on #3,363.80 and closed the order on #3,378.80 last night. I will continue Scalping current #3,357.80 - #3,395.80 range as it is excellent Trading lately.
Gold-----sell near 3393, target 3380-3366Gold market analysis:
Yesterday, gold was basically a repeated shock, the K line was repaired at one position, and buying and selling were back and forth around the M side of the suppression platform 3405. Yesterday, our analysis was completely in line with our expectations. Yesterday, we also repeatedly arranged 5 sell orders, arranging 3382 break sell, 3387 sell, 3393 sell, 3382 sell, 3377 sell. Today's idea is to continue selling. The daily line cannot determine the bottom of this wave of decline. There are data in European and American time today. I think we can rely on the 3405 platform to be bearish before the data. If 3405 breaks, we adjust our thinking to be bullish. Otherwise, we can sell repeatedly. Gold is oscillating in the short term. Try not to chase it and wait for it to rebound and suppress the position to sell. In addition, the daily moving average suppression position of the moving average is 3396-3363, which is also the main reason for its repeated game at this position. The weekly buying momentum is not dead yet. Be cautious of its rocket in the second half of the week.
In today's Asian session, we will first focus on the suppression of 3395. The risk of taking more is relatively large. The low point below is not stable. The Asian session fell to 3370 and rebounded quickly. From the perspective of the pattern, 3372-3366 is the support. The suppression position of the 1H hourly moving average is near 3395. Yesterday's US session rebounded at around 3396, and the hourly K suppression position was 3400. All the above are suppressed. In addition, the opening position today is also near 3393.
Pressure 3393, 3400, 3405, support 3382, 3370, and the watershed of strength and weakness in the market is 3382.
Fundamental analysis:
In the previous fundamentals, we have been paying attention to geopolitical factors. The situation in the Middle East has indeed changed the way gold and crude oil are traded. Today we focus on the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, and there is also a speech by Chairman Powell during the US session.
Operation suggestions:
Gold-----sell near 3393, target 3380-3366
Golden investment opportunity emerges!Market news:
In the early Asian session on Wednesday (June 18), spot gold fluctuated in a narrow range and is currently trading around $3,380 per ounce. As the "safe haven king" in the global financial market, international gold has shown resilience in bottoming out and rebounding under the dual drive of recent geopolitical and economic uncertainties. The rise in London gold prices is inseparable from the fueling of tensions in the Middle East. The conflict between Iran and Israel has entered its fifth day, and geopolitical risks continue to heat up, injecting strong momentum into safe-haven assets.Although geopolitical risks have pushed up the safe-haven demand for gold, the strong performance of the US dollar has significantly suppressed gold prices. Against the backdrop of escalating conflicts in the Middle East, the dollar's renewed support and the Federal Reserve's cautious attitude have become important factors limiting the upward trend of international gold prices. Investors need to pay close attention to the Fed's policy guidance, the trend of the US dollar and the latest developments in the Middle East. In addition, the initial value of the annualized total number of US building permits in May and the annualized total number of US new home starts in May will also be released on this trading day, and investors also need to pay attention.
Technical Review:
Gold bottomed out and rebounded, and adjusted widely and fluctuated fiercely. The daily chart closed with a positive cross line, and the RSI indicator's central axis 50 value flattened. The price dropped to the MA10 daily average line of 3366 and rebounded sharply, reaching 3396 in the Asian session. The short-term four-hour chart moving average is glued together, and the RSI indicator's central axis is adjusted. The hourly chart Bollinger Bands are closed, and the moving averages are glued together. Technically, gold maintains a wide range of fluctuations and short-term participation.The intraday trend and the weekly chart's high point gradually move downward, which shows that the control of selling in the market is gradually increasing. Although the gold price failed to continue the buying trend at the beginning of the week, it does not mean that buying is completely dominant, especially before the announcement of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on Thursday this week, the market still has strong uncertainty about the future trend!
Today's analysis:
After gold bottomed out, it began to fluctuate again, but the overall trend is still selling. The gold rebound is still under pressure at 3400 and began to fall back. In the short term, gold 3400 is still an important resistance. Gold continues to sell at high prices before it effectively breaks through 3400. Today’s market is once again blocked when it hits a high point. The current intraday high is around 3396. The market has been operating under the pressure of 3400 in the past two days, and there is no sign of the market standing above 3400. Therefore, the 3400 barrier is still an effective pressure point. As long as it does not break through and stabilize at 3400 today, the rebound is an opportunity for us to sell!
Operation ideas:
Short-term gold 3365-3370 buy, stop loss 3356, target 3390-3440;
Short-term gold 3390-3400 sell, stop loss 3408, target 3370-3350;
Key points:
First support level: 3363, second support level: 3346, third support level: 3333
First resistance level: 3400, second resistance level: 3408, third resistance level: 3420
Analysis of the latest gold market trend on June 18:
📌 News analysis
Expectations of the Fed's rate cut continue to affect the market
The market's expectations for the Fed's rate cut in 2025 have increased, the US dollar index remains weak, and gold has gained support.
Key points of attention: This week's Fed interest rate decision and Powell's speech, if dovish signals are released (such as hinting at a rate cut in September), gold may rebound; if hawkish (postponing the rate cut), gold prices may be further under pressure.
The situation in the Middle East has escalated, and risk aversion has increased
After Israel attacked Iran's state TV station, Iran threatened "the largest retaliation in history", and the fire on the tanker in the Strait of Hormuz has exacerbated geopolitical risks.
Potential impact: If the conflict expands (such as Iran blocking the Strait or directly counterattacking), gold may rise rapidly; if the situation eases (negotiation signals), safe-haven buying may weaken.
US economic data and market sentiment
If recent US economic data (such as retail sales and unemployment rate) are weak, it may strengthen expectations of rate cuts and benefit gold; if the data is strong, it may suppress gold prices.
📊 Technical Analysis
🔹 Daily level: Bearish, but key support needs to be paid attention to
Trend review: Gold price fell after a high rise at the beginning of the week, falling below the 3400 mark and closing with a large negative line, indicating that bears are dominant.
Key signals:
The 5-day moving average turned downward, suppressing the rebound of gold prices in the short term.
The Bollinger Bands closed, indicating that the market has entered a shock consolidation phase. If it falls below 3350, it may accelerate downward to 3300.
Support level: 3360-3350 (if it stabilizes, it may rebound); resistance level: 3400-3410 (if it breaks through, it may test 3450).
🔹 4-hour level: Bearish, but there may be a rebound correction in the short term
Short-term moving average suppression (5-day and 20-day moving averages are glued at 3404-3409) constitutes strong resistance.
MACD crosses, but Stoch is oversold, and may correct and rebound in the short term, but if it fails to break through 3400, it may continue to fall.
Key support: 3360-3350 (if it falls below, it may drop to 3330-3300).
🔹 1-hour level: Weak shock, pay attention to the rebound strength
MACD crosses and shrinks, Stoch moves downward, and it is still weak in the short term.
Upper pressure: 3412 (MA60+MA30), if it fails to break through, it may continue to fall.
🎯 Today's operation strategy
📉 Short-term trading ideas: short-selling on rebounds is the main method, and long-selling on pullbacks is the auxiliary method
✅ Short-selling opportunities (selling at highs):
Entry area: 3395-3405 (if the rebound is blocked)
Target: 3360-3350
Stop loss: above 3410
✅ Long opportunities (buy low):
Entry area: 3360-3350 (if it stabilizes and rebounds)
Target: 3380-3400
Stop loss: below 3345
⚠️ Key risk warnings:
Market volatility may intensify before the Fed's decision. It is recommended to operate with a light position and strictly stop loss.
If the situation in the Middle East deteriorates, it may trigger a rapid rise in gold. Pay attention to real-time news.
📌 Summary: Gold is short-term dominant, but the key support (3360-3350) still has the possibility of a rebound. In terms of trading, it is recommended to take high-short as the main idea and low-long as the auxiliary idea, focusing on the Federal Reserve’s decisions and geopolitical trends.
GOLD Unemployment Claims Data Context
Forecast: 246,000
Previous: 248,000
The weekly initial jobless claims report is a key indicator for the Federal Reserve, signaling the current state and momentum of the U.S. labor market.
Fed Interpretation: Greater Than Forecast
Indication: A figure above 246,000 suggests the labor market is softening more than expected.
Fed Response:
The Fed would view higher-than-forecast claims as a sign of rising layoffs and potential weakening in employment growth.
This outcome increases concern about the durability of the economic expansion and may raise the likelihood of future interest rate cuts, especially if the trend persists.
The Fed would likely emphasize caution in its policy statement and may signal greater willingness to ease policy if labor market weakness continues.
Fed Interpretation: Less Than Forecast
Indication: A figure below 246,000 signals a stronger-than-expected labor market.
Fed Response:
The Fed would interpret lower-than-forecast claims as evidence that the labor market remains resilient, with fewer layoffs and ongoing job creation.
This outcome reduces the urgency for immediate rate cuts and supports the case for holding rates steady, especially if inflation remains above target.
The Fed is likely to maintain a cautious, data-dependent stance, awaiting further evidence before considering policy changes.
Federal Funds Rate Decision Outlook
Expected Outcome:
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold the federal funds rate steady at 4.25%–4.50% during the June 18, 2025 meeting.
Supporting Factors:
Inflation is moderating but remains above target.
Labor market data, including unemployment claims, shows stability without overheating.
Economic uncertainties, including trade policies, encourage a cautious approach.
Market Odds:
There is a near 100% probability of no rate change today, with markets focusing on the Fed’s forward guidance and economic projections for clues on future rate moves.
The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the current federal funds rate range of 4.25%–4.50%, reflecting a balanced approach amid moderating inflation and steady labor market conditions.
Market participants will closely watch the FOMC statement, economic projections, and press conference for any shifts in tone that could influence future rate expectations and market volatility.
XAUUSD H1 I Bearish Reversal Off the 50% FibBased on the H1 chart, the price is approaching our sell entry level at 3408.11, a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fib retracement.
Our take profit is set at 3375, an overlap support that aligns with the 50% Fib retracement.
The stop loss is set at 3441.66, a multi swing high resistance.
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gold on buy#XAUUSD price holds on 3398 for buy continuation.
Above 3398 will take bullish which will breakout 3406, entry 3398, SL 3384, TP 3406-3425.
If price breakout 3406 and H1 closes above there then bullish will continue till 3425, but reverse and closure below 3402 down will drop the price more.
XAUUSD Buy ForecastXAUUSD New Forecast👨💻👨💻
This is my personal trade and not in anyway a mandatory setup.
Note:
Follow proper risk management rules. Never risk more then 2% of your total capital. Money management is the key of success in this business...... Set your own SL & TP.
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GOLD - Bearish Continuation Story : Market formed a BEARISH DIVERGENCE on 1H time frame and then divergence played well as we can see market broke the neckline (HL) and then continued series of LH and LL (Dow Theory) TRIPLE TOP kind of formation can also be seen before it continued bearish divergence
Anticipate : I anticipate that market will continue series of LH and LL as there is no bullish divergence and no sign of reversal pattern.
Plan: We take our entry on the break of LL which is 3380 level, and then we continued to target TP1 and TP2 with our 1:1 & 1:2 R:R ratio.
once pending order is triggered, out Stoploss is defined which is slightly above the defined LH 3410 level.
Dear Followers, Keep following and like- if you want more (simple) analysis like these
GOLD Is Very Bullish! Buy!
Please, check our technical outlook for GOLD.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 3,327.72.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 3,385.41.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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XAUUSD is on bullish momentum H1 & H4 Timeframe Analysis
Gold is currently showing a bullish trend due to the ongoing Middle East crisis.if th Escalation between Iran & isreal became more tense then focus on buying gold on every DIP.
Bullish scanario:
I’ve identified my re-entry zones and plan to buy on every dip, focusing on scalping with buy positions only.
3380-3390 is the optimal buying area.
At moment 3410 is the buying area because the relative trend line matched at this place.
My target is the potential extension towards the $3480 milestone.
Bearish Scenario:
However, if gold closes the H4 below the $3380 level, I expect it to shift into a ranging market 3380-3330 and I will reassess my outlook towards 3355 1st then 3335 on second target.
#XAUUSD
Today's key gold price range: 3400-3450Today's key gold price range: 3400-3450
Today's gold price opened high and rose, eventually reaching around 3450, but it did not stay at the high level for too long and then fell back.
Based on the current fluctuations, we draw the following conclusions:
1: The market reaction is not as intense as imagined.
2: However, the reliability of the channel pressure at the macro level is more certain:
Super pressure: 3450
3: Next, the reliability of the support around 3400-3410 will be confirmed again
4: The gold price fluctuation range is maintained at: 3400-3450 range fluctuation
At present, as the gold price successfully stands above the 3400 mark, the market focus has shifted to whether the gold price will fall back and adjust.
From the intraday trend, gold opened high in the morning, briefly broke through last week's high, and then fell back quickly.
In the short term, the 3415-3410 area has become the most important support.
This area is not only the low point before the opening of the US stock market last Friday, but also the key line of defense for the long and short battles in the short term.
Before this area is effectively broken, the possibility of gold price rebound can be given priority;
1: Once the price falls below 3410, the 3400-3405 area should be focused on. This range is the key point for bullish breakthrough. If it can be held, the bullish idea can still be maintained;
2: If it unfortunately falls below, it means that the short-selling force is strengthened and the market may turn to the short side. In the future, we can further pay attention to the 3385-3375 and 3365-3355 areas. It is expected that these two points will become new support levels to accumulate strength for subsequent rises.
3: In terms of resistance, the upper 3450-3455 area constitutes strong resistance during the day. If there is no new positive news stimulation, it will be difficult for gold prices to break through this area in the short term.
4: In the long run, if the geopolitical situation between Israel and Iran further deteriorates and gets out of control, the market risk aversion will continue to rise, and gold bulls are expected to make another effort to break through the current high and gradually look to the 3470-3475 area, and then challenge the 3492 line and launch an impact on the new high of 3500.
The current Asian session shows a trend of opening high and closing low. Whether this trend is a prelude to a negative decline or a shock correction to accumulate momentum for subsequent rise, the trend during the European session will become the key basis for judgment.
Fundamentals:
On June 16, as June 2025 deepens, the global financial market is ushering in a critical week.
The Federal Reserve will announce its latest monetary policy decision on Wednesday (June 18), which will not only affect the future direction of the US economy, but also have a profound impact on global asset prices, the trend of the US dollar and investor sentiment.
Last Friday, Israel's military strike on Iran and the retaliatory missile attacks it triggered put pressure on global markets.
This incident has added new variables to the market, which is already full of uncertainty.
This week, the Federal Reserve's policy meeting, retail sales data and geopolitical situation will become the three core factors affecting the global market.
The Federal Reserve may keep interest rates unchanged, but its economic forecasts and future interest rate cuts will directly affect the market's judgment on the trend of the US dollar.
If the Fed sends a dovish signal, the dollar may be under pressure in the short term, but geopolitical risks and safe-haven demand may provide support for it.
On the contrary, if the Fed emphasizes inflation risks, the dollar may strengthen, but this may put pressure on US stocks and global risk assets.
Does gold break or not Looking like the pressure in trade and uncertainty will help lift gold into 2480’s and tempt a pullback and build up into 2528 and beyond.
Exciting stuff!
A pullback could mean a slippery slide to a diagonal support and some hefty by orders on more standard news.
Long here 120 units, tight stop loss at 3424oz. Will pickup in increments down to set buying zones or the long diagonal supports for the ride back up regardless. Will expect a choppy wave before readying a rip up though… have to be dramatic about something that’s going to happen regardless? It’s gold.
Gold (XAU/USD) Setup – June 16, 2025🔍 Watching for a bearish retracement
Gold is currently trading around 3432.83, but price action shows signs of weakness after a strong bullish impulse. We're now seeing consolidation near the top, and if momentum fades, I expect a retracement back to test key demand zones.
🎯 Target Zones for Retracement:
📌 3403.48 – First key level of interest (minor support)
📌 3391.97 – Stronger demand area
🟠 3386.58 to 3383.95 – Institutional order block / NDOG zone (June 13)
💭 My Bias:
Short-term bearish – I expect sellers to step in and push price down into one of these zones before bulls potentially return.
📆 Let’s see how the market reacts around these levels tomorrow. Will gold respect the zones and bounce? Or break deeper?
#Gold #XAUUSD #PriceAction #TradingView #MarketAnalysis #FX #SmartMoney #NDOG #OrderBlocks #LiquidityGrab
Sniper XAU/USD🎯 Setup Overview
Instrument: XAU/USD
Timeframes: Entry analyzed on M15, confirmation on M5–M1
Structure: Bullish — price making higher lows into the liquidity zone (equal highs)
📌 Entry Levels
Level Price (approx.) Notes
Sniper Entry 3,390.50 At the last higher low (HL) before reaching the liquidity zone (~3,445–3,450)
Stop Loss 3,384.50 Just below the HL — 6 pips (~$6), tight risk buffer
Take Profit 1 3,445 (liquidity sweep) First target at the sweep zone
Take Profit 2 3,500 (breakout extension) Additional profit zone if momentum continues
🛠 Entry Routine
M15 Chart: Observe the ascending HLs — last HL is our key area (~3,390.50).
Drop to M5: Watch for a bullish candle (e.g., bullish engulfing or rejection wick) forming near 3,390.50.
Enter Long once you see that bullish confirmation.
Set SL just below the HL at 3,384.50.
Scale Out / Take Profit:
Exit 50–75% at 3,445.
Move SL to breakeven.
Let the rest ride to 3,500 as momentum extends.
Gold price target of 3500 on Monday?Gold price target of 3500 on Monday?
Middle East is in turmoil again, tense situation
On Thursday and Friday, gold price took the opportunity to rise, forming a sharp upward trend, and is currently hovering around the previous pressure level of 3440;
1: Technical aspect: hovering around 3440 in the short term, but after the fermentation over the weekend, the probability of gold price hitting 3500 or even breaking through next week continues to increase.
2: Fundamentals: This is an important risk event over the weekend and also an important risk event in the near future; the current exchange of fire between Iran and Israel has inevitably intensified the trend of conflict and contradiction; there are too many uncertainties and interference factors in the future development direction of the situation;
1: The latest news is that Iran has sent ballistic missiles to Israel to respond; next week, the gold and crude oil markets may continue to be boosted by risk aversion, forming a strong upward trend;
2: Possible future trends:
A: The incident escalates directly; it has already occurred; proxy war; through the response to the incident, the forces such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthi armed forces in Yemen are reactivated to engage in multi-line confrontations and form a multi-line pincer attack on Israel;
B: The United States intervenes militarily, and neighboring countries indirectly participate in the war, forming two strong confrontations; the forces of all parties Powers are playing games behind the scenes; China and Russia use strategic containment, diplomatic mediation and other means;
Impact on the global market:
1: Breaking the balance of the crude oil market; if the Strait of Hormuz is completely blocked, there is a high possibility that oil prices will soar directly in the future;
2: The impact on the financial market and regional economy is great, and the financial markets of Iran itself and neighboring countries will face risks; at the same time, global risk aversion is further intensifying, and gold, as a natural safe-haven currency, is bound to become a support level;
Summary: On the disk, it is still bullish next week, and the main operation is to follow the trend;
At the same time, the war in the Middle East is still the core of the entire market; the support level on the disk is 3400-3300 points, and the only pressure level above is 3500 points;
The trend line begins to break through and stabilize near 3500, so just follow the trend!