As long as the gold price is above 3400, continue to go long.As long as the gold price is above 3400, continue to go long.
As shown in Figure 4h.
I clearly show the trend of gold prices through the split chart.
1: The ABC span forms the golden ratio, indicating that if the gold price continues to rise out of control in the future, it will rise to the range of 3700-4000.
2: The blue triangle angle is a convergent triangle in the upward trend, which is a strong triangle. The probability of bullishness next week is high, and the possibility of breaking through and returning to the range of 3450-3500 is very high.
3: We need to consider the most unlikely possibility, that is, the worst expectations and results.
If the gold price breaks through 3450 and it is a false breakthrough, there may be an expectation of a sharp decline: 3365-3330-3270.
Operation strategy:
As shown in the figure:
1: Pay attention to the 1-2 path and defend the 3-4 path.
2: Wait for low prices to find long opportunities
3: As long as the gold price is above 3400 points, only participate in the long strategy.
4: Gold price fluctuation range: 3400-3450
5: Two test pressure areas for intraday short-term short selling: 3450 and 3500
6: Strong support area: 3400--3365--3330-3270, these points can be used as support points and stop loss ranges for future attempts to go long.
XAUUSDG trade ideas
Buy 3424, close during Asia open on Monday.This is a fundamentally based idea. I´m expecting GOLD will gap during weekend, diue to possible Iran "retaliation" atack during weekend(this night). The most likely target is 3500-3520. You can open your position now at 3424. Very important, you HAVE TO, control your position during Asia open on Monday and do not be greedy. Expecting very sharp pullback (do not trade it). Control your size, take it as educational idea with very small size. Wishing you good luck.
I´m not a signal service. If you want to trade signals, please contact one of the signalist commenting this idea, help them finance their life from signal services. I do not do this service. My suggestion is rely on your own trading decisions, not somebody else. You will save a lot of money.
XAU/USD GOLD SELL SIGNAL Entry Point: 3431🔺 USDJPY BUY TRADE SETUP 🔺
📍 Entry: 143.700
🎯 Targets:
1️⃣ 144.500
2️⃣ 145.500
🏁 Final Target: 146.000
📈 Bullish trend remains intact
🕵️♂️ Price bounced from support zone
🔍 Momentum confirming upward strength
🛠️ Clean entry with structured risk setup
🛑 Stop-loss placed below key support
⚖️ Risk/Reward ratio aligns with strategy
⏳ Patience required as price develops
📊 Suitable for short to mid-term outlook
💼 Always manage your risk wisely
📆 Valid as of June 13, 2025
🔔 Watch for economic news impacting USD/JPY
📌 Review setup regularly – adapt if needed
📢 Trade what you see, not what you feel
📈 Stay disciplined, trade smart!
Stick to shorting gold and aim for the target area.Gold has not broken through 3400 after accelerating its rise, and the upper suppression effect still exists; currently gold is fluctuating in a narrow range below 3390, showing signs of stagflation to a certain extent. Therefore, the accelerated rise of gold is not for the short-term impact of 3400, but for a deep retracement, eliminating more scattered funds in the market by sweeping up and down.
So in the short term, I think it is difficult for gold to continue to break upward under the suppression of the resistance area near the short-term high of 3402, but to test the lower support area of 3375-3365 before breaking upward. So I have shorted gold as scheduled according to the short trading plan mentioned above, and aimed at the lower target area of 3375-3365.
At present, our short position has made a certain profit, but I still look forward to profiting from gold hitting TP! Let us look forward to gold falling back to the target area as expected!
BEST XAUUSD M30 BUY SETUP FOR TODAYGold (XAU/USD) is showcasing strong bullish momentum after breaking above the key resistance zone near $3,404, now acting as fresh support. 🔄 The price formed a bullish structure with clean higher highs and higher lows on the 30-minute chart, confirming buying strength. 🟣 The marked demand zone around $3,392–$3,404 is critical—if price retests and holds this level, we can expect a continuation toward $3,420 and beyond. 🚀📌 Traders should watch for bullish confirmations on pullbacks to this zone for potential long setups. 🧠⚡
Gold Formation as Growing trendXAUUSD (Gold) Price Analysis
Gold is currently testing trend support, undergoing a deep correction amid a complex fundamental backdrop. Several key factors are influencing market sentiment:
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East Comments from the Federal Reserve Former President Trump's expressed desire for lower interest rates These developments are contributing to market uncertainty, which typically supports gold as a safe haven.
🔍 Technical Outlook
Support Zone: 3350
Resistance Levels: 3400 and 3420
Before further upside, a retest of the 3350 support zone is possible. You can see more details in the Chart Ps Support with like and comments for more analysis.
The latest gold trend analysis and strategy on June 19:
I. Fundamental analysis
1. Global macro environment:
As a safe-haven asset, gold's price fluctuations are affected by multiple factors, including:
Macroeconomic policies (such as interest rates, inflation expectations)
Geopolitical tensions
Market risk sentiment and capital flows
2. The core factors currently affecting gold trends:
Federal Reserve interest rate decision:
The result of this interest rate decision is in line with market expectations;
But Powell delivered a hawkish speech after the meeting, suppressing the market's optimistic expectations for interest rate cuts this year;
As a result, the price of gold quickly fell from around $3,395 to around $3,362, showing a short-term negative effect;
Overall, the Fed's hawkish stance puts some pressure on gold.
Geopolitical risks (Middle East situation):
The conflict between Israel and Iran continues to escalate, and market risk aversion has increased;
It supports gold and limits its downside space.
Holiday impact:
The U.S. market closed early for the "Juneteenth" holiday;
Market trading volume is expected to shrink, and the volatility may be limited in the short term.
2. Technical analysis
1. Daily analysis:
Brief summary of gold trend this week:
Monday: A sharp drop after a high opening;
Tuesday: A cross positive line was closed, showing a shock correction;
Wednesday: The price of gold continued to fluctuate after the Fed's decision, and the lowest price of gold reached $3,362.
Analysis of key technical indicators and points:
Support level:
$3,362 is the low point of this decline;
This point coincides with the 10-day moving average (3,360), forming a strong support;
If this position is maintained, gold may maintain a volatile trend;
If it falls below, the next support is the 20-day moving average: around 3,350.
Resistance level:
The first resistance is the 5-day moving average: $3,390;
The stronger resistance above is at $3,405, which is a concentrated pressure point;
If it breaks through 3,405, it is expected to rise further to $3,430.
2. 4-hour chart analysis:
The current structure has not changed significantly:
The lower track of the Bollinger band has not opened, the support of 3360 is effective, and the structure is bullish;
But the continuous rebound has not broken through the pressure point of the middle track of the Bollinger band, indicating that the medium-term is still a weak and volatile pattern;
If the short-term gold price can break through the suppression level of 3405 US dollars, it is possible to start a new round of rise, with the target pointing to the high point of 3430 US dollars.
Intraday trading suggestions:
Maintain the "high-altitude and low-multiple" operation idea;
Wait for the price to appear a confirmation signal near the key support or resistance level before entering the market;
Currently, it is recommended to be bullish above the support level of 3360.
III. Operation strategy suggestions (short-term)
1. Short order strategy (high-altitude):
Entry range: 3385-3383 US dollars;
Stop loss: 3390 US dollars;
Target: 3370-3365 US dollars.
2. Long order strategy (low long):
Entry range: 3365-3367 USD;
Stop loss: 3359 USD;
Target: 3375-3385 USD.
IV. Summary
Gold is currently in a long-short game and a weak shock pattern;
The hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve suppresses gold, but geopolitical factors provide support for it;
From a technical perspective, 3360 is the key support point and 3405 is the key resistance point;
Short-term thinking is mainly based on shock thinking, and the operation is recommended to maintain the high-altitude low-multiple strategy in the range;
Follow-up focus:
Whether 3360 is effectively maintained;
Whether 3405 is successfully broken through to confirm the trend direction.
Report June 19, 2025U.S. Policy, Federal Reserve, and Market Sentiment
The Federal Reserve's latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and Chair Powell’s post-meeting comments reinforce a resolutely cautious tone, emphasizing economic uncertainty and inflation fragility. The FOMC maintained the federal funds rate at 4.50%, while the updated dot plot reveals increased divergence: 10 members favor two or more rate cuts, while seven now favor no cuts in 2025, up from four in March.
Powell emphasized the Fed’s uncertainty surrounding the inflation trajectory, particularly in light of tariff-driven price risks following President Trump’s April 2 “Liberation Day” trade measures. These tariffs are still working through the supply chain, with Powell stating that “someone will have to pay,” referencing the complex interplay between manufacturers, exporters, and consumers. He admitted the Fed is “trying to be humble” in forecasting outcomes, underscoring a deep uncertainty around pass-through pricing effects.
Despite this cautious stance, Powell refrained from giving any rate-cut timeline. Markets are now pricing in September as the earliest plausible cut, contingent on whether inflationary momentum fades or the labor market begins to deteriorate more visibly.
The chair also pushed back against political pressure from the White House. President Trump demanded up to ten rate cuts, blaming Powell for inflating federal debt costs. Powell defended the Fed’s independence, suggesting data not political rhetoric will guide the path forward. Analysts note that the central bank’s reluctance to preemptively cut is due in part to a “generationally bad inflation episode,” which undermined confidence in the Fed’s control mechanisms.
Escalating Iran–Israel Conflict: Strategic Implications
Geopolitical risk has intensified following reports that President Trump approved U.S. strike plans on Iran, though has yet to issue a final order. The build-up of U.S. forces in the Mediterranean and Arabian Seas, including two carrier strike groups and three destroyers, signals operational readiness.
Israeli strikes have reportedly hit Iran’s Arak heavy-water facility and a site in Natanz linked to nuclear weapons development. Iran has retaliated, with missile fire hitting Beersheba and causing civilian casualties. With over 639 deaths reported in Iran and 24 in Israel, the risk of a broader regional war is elevated. U.S. embassies are preparing evacuation flights from Israel, further confirming military escalation risks.
The market implication is clear: safe-haven flows are returning. Oil prices remain bid near $75.10 (WTI) despite small declines, and gold is holding near $3,385, reflecting hedging against a supply disruption scenario.
Global Macro Conditions: Bonds, Asia, and FX
Bond markets are showing stabilization as investors balance Fed indecision with long-term value. Capital Group noted that bonds are “again fulfilling their role as portfolio stabilizers.” The steepening curve combined with attractive yields is drawing long-term interest in IG credit and U.S. sovereigns, especially at the 5–10Y part of the curve.
Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) saw a strong bid during the latest 5Y auction, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 4.58, the highest since July 2023. The 10Y JGB yield dropped 4bps to 1.415%, and the 20Y yield to 2.36%, as Middle East risk spurred demand. Analysts noted that despite talk of BoJ tightening, demand-side dynamics remain favorable for JGBs.
Meanwhile, Asian currencies are consolidating as traders digest both the Fed's message and regional instability. The Korean won, Singapore dollar, and Australian dollar were mostly unchanged overnight, although the Thai baht weakened sharply amid political instability in Bangkok following a coalition breakdown.
Asian investors have also begun diversifying away from USD assets, according to DBS strategists. This includes buying back into Singapore and Hong Kong fixed income, compressing local interest rates and contributing to dollar softness in Asia.
Commodities & Energy Outlook
Oil prices are modestly lower in Asia’s early trading due to position adjustments, but support remains due to Middle East tensions. Brent trades at $76.34, and WTI at $75.10. ANZ Research notes the market remains “very sensitive” to additional escalation in the Iran-Israel conflict. A U.S. military strike on Iranian nuclear infrastructure would likely trigger further price spikes, possibly pushing crude above $80 in the short term.
As, gold and silver remain well supported as hedges, particularly given the uncertain rate path and geopolitical risk.
XAUUSDThe latest COT report shows a strong increase in gold long positions, with large speculators adding to bullish exposure. This indicates growing institutional confidence in gold's upside potential.
At the same time, price is resting on a well-respected support zone, aligning perfectly with the bullish COT bias. This confluence strengthens the case for a potential rebound or breakout move.
xau/usdTRADE 3 i did get into this trade buyt published late..,. i belive gold to still be bullish i do think a break out wil have to occur soon but again im always wrong with gold but just love to trade it..... but i think a retest at a higher level is going to happen lets seee rememebr gold is always going to gfet more expensive so this is always going to stay a bullish run in the long term
Long Trade Setup: XAUUSD 🟡 Trade Setup: XAUUSD (Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar)
Timeframe: 1H
Bias: Bullish Reversal
Type: Liquidity Trap Breakout
Instrument: Gold / USD
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🧠 Step 1: Market Context
Gold has been in a downtrend, forming consistent lower lows. Recently, it broke below a key support level, making it appear like further downside is coming. However, price has since moved sideways, suggesting loss of bearish momentum.
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🎯 Step 2: Liquidity Trap Detected
This breakdown below support seems to be a false move, possibly engineered to:
Trigger stop-losses below the previous low
Attract sellers expecting further downside
Create sell-side liquidity for institutions
This pattern is known as a liquidity trap or stop hunt.
---
📏 Step 3: Confirmation from Price Action
A descending trendline breakout is visible on the 1H timeframe.
Price broke out, retested the trendline, and is now showing bullish candles.
This signals potential accumulation and trend reversal.
---
💼 Step 4: Trade Details
Entry: 3,393.73
Target (TP): 3,500.41
Stop Loss (SL): 3,351.50
Risk to Reward Ratio: ~2.5:1
This trade offers a solid risk-managed setup, ideal for intraday to short-swing traders.
---
🔍 Step 5: What to Watch For
Watch for bullish continuation above 3,400.
If price closes above 3,420, breakout buyers may join in.
If price drops below 3,375, exit and reassess.
---
📌 Summary
This trade banks on the idea that smart money is accumulating positions while retail traders are trapped short. The risk-reward ratio is favorable, and technical signals align for a potential upside move.
XAUUSD, Gold analysis, Liquidity trap, Stop hunt, Trend reversal, Technical analysis, Gold breakout, Smart money move
#XAUUSD #Gold #Breakout #LiquidityTrap #TechnicalAnalysis #SmartMoney
#Forex #TradingView #GoldAnalysis #PriceAction #TrendReversal #RiskReward
XAU/USD bullish Outlooks New Treends 3367 to 3410 / 18/6/2025---
Hi guys, this is my overview for XAUUSD
Feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments 👊
Some days ago, price declined to $3220 level and then started to grow, and soon reached $3380 level and even broke it.
Then price started to trade inside a wedge, where it once started to decline and in a short time declined to the support line of the wedge.
After this, Gold rose and broke $3220 level again and continued to move up in the wedge, where it also made two gaps before.
Price rose to $3380 level and traded very close to this level for some time, but later corrected to the support line.
Next, price made a strong impulse, breaking $3380 level and exiting from the wedge as well, and continued to grow.Recently, Gold started to fall, so I think that it will fall to the support area and then bounce up to $3500.
🟢 Trade active:
Price has reached the support area. In my view, it might trade inside this zone for some time and then start to grow again.
❤️ If this post is useful to you, you can support me with like/boost and advice in comments.
XAU/USD 18 June 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 23 April 2025
Price has now printed a bearish CHoCH according to my analysis yesterday.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,500.200.
Note:
The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively.
Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Following previous high, and printing of bearish CHoCH, price has pulled back to an M15 supply zone, where we are currently seeing a reaction. Therefore, I shall now confirm internal high.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
The remainder of my analysis shall remain the same as analysis dated 13 June 2025, apart from target price.
As per my analysis dated 22 May 2025 whereby I mentioned price can be seen to be reacting at discount of 50% EQ on H4 timeframe, therefore, it is a viable alternative that price could potentially print a bullish iBOS on M15 timeframe despite internal structure being bearish.
Price has printed a bullish iBOS followed by a bearish CHoCH, which indicates, but does not confirm, bearish pullback phase initiation. I will however continue to monitor, with respect to depth of pullback.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to continue bearish, react at either M15 supply zone, or discount of 50% internal EQ before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,451.375.
Note:
Gold remains highly volatile amid the Federal Reserve's continued dovish stance, persistent and escalating geopolitical uncertainties. Traders should implement robust risk management strategies and remain vigilant, as price swings may become more pronounced in this elevated volatility environment.
Additionally, President Trump’s recent tariff announcements are expected to further amplify market turbulence, potentially triggering sharp price fluctuations and whipsaws.
M15 Chart:
Gold Sell Setup – 18/06/2025📉 Gold Sell Setup – 18/06/2025 📉
Chart shows a clear descending channel formation on the XAUUSD pair.
🔸 Sell Limit Zone: 3411 to 3414
🔸 Stop Loss: 3425
🔸 Expected Reaction: Price is currently at the upper boundary of the descending channel, suggesting potential resistance and reversal.
🟡 RSI is approaching overbought territory, adding confluence for a possible bearish move.
⚠️ Note: Wait for proper rejection confirmation before executing the trade. Trade safe!
Key Event Today – FOMC Interest Rate DecisionAs risk-off sentiment cools, gold bulls failed to take control yesterday, resulting in a stalemate with the bears.
From the 4H chart perspective, bearish momentum currently appears stronger,
though bulls are not giving up easily.
Currently, price is rebounding off the 4H MA60 support,
with immediate resistance from the MA20 around 3405.
As time progresses, this resistance is likely to shift lower,
so for now, we’ll treat $3400 as the primary reference point.
For bulls to regain dominance,
they must hold steady above 3405,
and more importantly, protect the support at 3386–3378 during any pullback.
🔔 Key Event Today – FOMC Interest Rate Decision
Today’s trading will also be influenced by the Federal Reserve’s rate decision,
which, based on current expectations, is likely to weigh heavily on bullish sentiment.
📌 Strategy for Today:
Main Bias: Sell the rebound
Secondary Approach: Buy on pullbacks if strong support levels hold
Key support levels to monitor:
⚠️ 3382 zone (minor support)
🔻 Most critical: 4H MA60 around 3366
Stay cautious during the FOMC announcement window, and remember — in volatile markets, reacting with discipline is more important than predicting perfectly.
6/17 Gold Analysis and Trading SignalsGood morning!
Yesterday, gold opened with a gap-up and surged to around 3451, but failed to sustain above key resistance. After another failed attempt to break higher, prices gradually turned lower and finally broke below 3400, finding short-term support near 3382.
The primary driver of this decline was a waning of geopolitical risk sentiment, which had previously fueled the rally. Additionally, the market is now pricing in expectations that the Fed will keep rates unchanged, a factor that was likely preemptively reflected in price.
🔍 Fundamental Focus:
Today’s U.S. session will feature a key news release, which may prove decisive for gold’s next directional move. With yesterday’s advance pullback, market dynamics are likely to be more volatile today. We recommend caution, especially ahead of the announcement.
📉 Technical View:
Gold is currently in a post-decline consolidation phase.
The main resistance lies between 3430–3450, while 3415 on the 30-minute chart also presents a short-term cap.
For those entering long positions, target zones should remain conservative, ideally around 3412–3418, and then be adjusted depending on volume momentum and breakout structure.
📊 Weekly Structure Outlook:
The weekly chart shows that gold is at a key trend inflection point.
If no additional bullish catalysts emerge, the market is likely to develop into a bearish consolidation, with the next major downside target around 3200.
📌 Trading Plan (For VIP):
✅ Sell Zone: 3436–3466
✅ Buy Zone: 3347–3323
✅ Flexible Trade Zones: 3428 / 3415 / 3403 / 3392 / 3378 / 3362 / 3354
Falling below 3380,testing 3365,the low position remains bullish📰 Impact of news:
1. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East
2. Iran nuclear talks
3. Retail sales data
📈 Market analysis:
After rebounding to the 3400 line, gold encountered resistance and fell back to test the support level of 3380. Although it was very close to the point of 3405 we gave, I did not enter the trade because gold has been in the middle section in the short term and has not rebounded to the ideal point.
There are too many long orders at high levels in gold. The international situation is so tense that gold is still slowly declining, but the geopolitical situation is still continuing. In addition, the retail sales data is bullish. Then, as the trading strategy given at noon, it is expected to test the short-term support of 3365-3355 below. I will consider going long in this range
🏅 Trading strategies:
BUY 3365-3355
TP 3380-3390-3400
If you agree with this view, or have a better idea, please leave a message in the comment area. I look forward to hearing different voices.
TVC:GOLD FXOPEN:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD FX:XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD