Daily Analysis- XAUUSD (Wednesday, 9th July 2024)Bias: Bullish
USD News(Red Folder):
-Unemployment Claims
Notes:
- Daily no bottom wick form yet
- Waiting for liquidity grab and
retest 0.236 fib level
- Potential BUY if there's
confirmation on lower timeframe
- Pivot point: 3280
Disclaimer:
This analysis is from a personal point of view, always conduct on your own research before making any trading decisions as the analysis do not guarantee complete accuracy.
XAUUSDG trade ideas
Gold Intraday Trading Plan 7/10/2025Gold has been very choppy recently. It seems not having any clear direction. Although in weekly post I am bearish in short term, there is lack of momentum for it to go down. Currently it is traded within a channel indicated in the chart. I am going to trade on the channel top.
If the channel holds, I will sell around 3330, towards 3250. If the channel top is broken, I will buy upon retest, towards 3365.
Analysis and strategy of gold trend on July 9:
Core logic sorting
Bull-bear game intensifies:
Positive factors:
Risk aversion: Trump's tariffs on Japan and South Korea (effective on August 1) caused market anxiety, and the decline of US stocks supported gold.
Central bank gold purchases: The People's Bank of China has increased its gold holdings for 8 consecutive months, and long-term demand is stable.
Negative factors:
Stronger US dollar: The US dollar index rose to 97.67 (a one-week high), suppressing gold pricing.
Technical pressure: $3345 has become a strong resistance, and multiple highs and falls show that bulls are weak.
Market focus:
In the short term, pay attention to the persistence of risk aversion and the trend of the US dollar index. If the US dollar pulls back or geopolitical risks escalate, gold may break through the range.
In the long run, the weak US dollar (down 10% this year) and global loose policies still support gold.
Key technical signals
1. Daily level
Range oscillation: 3295-3345 US dollars are in a narrow range, and the moving average is glued together, and it is necessary to wait for a directional breakthrough.
Long-short watershed:
Break above 3345 → open upside space, target 3380-3400.
Break below 3295 → may test 3270-3260 support.
2. 4-hour level
Signs of pressure: double tops formed near 3345, MACD golden cross momentum weakened, if the dead cross is confirmed, the callback will be strengthened.
Key support: 3300 (psychological barrier), if it falls below, look to 3270.
3. 1-hour level
Short-term bearish: moving average diverges downward, K-line is under pressure from short-term moving average, and the rebound momentum is insufficient.
Today's operation strategy
1. Main strategy: short on rebound
Entry point: short with a light position in the 3330-3335 range, stop loss above 3345.
Target: 3280-3270 (if it falls below 3270, hold and look at 3260).
Logic: 3345 resistance is effective + strong US dollar + technical side is bearish.
2. Auxiliary strategy: short-term long on pullback
Entry conditions: 3270-3260 stabilizes (such as K-line closes long lower shadow or MACD bottom divergence).
Stop loss: below 3250, target 3295-3300.
Logic: lower edge support of range + risk aversion may be repeated.
3. Breakthrough strategy
Break above 3345: chase long, target 3360-3380, stop loss 3330.
Break below 3260: wait and see whether the decline accelerates, avoid counter-trend operations.
Risk warning
Sudden events: If the US stock market plummets or the trade conflict escalates, gold may quickly break through 3345.
US dollar fluctuations: pay attention to whether the US dollar index can stand firm at 97.5. If it falls back, it will ease the pressure on gold.
Data impact: US economic data (such as PPI, Fed speech) may disturb the market.
Summary
Short-term: Prioritize shorting below 3345, and strictly stop loss.
Mid-term: If it breaks through 3345, turn to long thinking, and if it breaks below 3260, wait and see.
Gold Trading Strategy | July 9-10✅Yesterday, gold prices briefly surged due to heightened safe-haven demand, but we remained skeptical about the sustainability of the rebound and continued to uphold our strategy of shorting at higher levels. As expected, gold eventually moved lower, breaking below the previous day's low and establishing a bearish continuation pattern. Our bearish outlook was confirmed by market action.
✅In terms of price structure, although gold saw a moderate rebound during the latter part of the U.S. session, the momentum was weak, indicating that strong resistance remains overhead. The market continues to exhibit a bearish tone, so today’s strategy remains unchanged—waiting for a rebound to resume short positioning.
✅Technical Analysis:
🔸Daily Chart: Gold remains in a state of high-level consolidation with signs of momentum exhaustion. Yesterday’s price action saw resistance near the 3345 level once again, followed by a pullback. Although it temporarily broke below 3300, the price later recovered, reflecting a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. The candlestick pattern shows alternating bullish and bearish candles, lacking sustained direction, and no clear single-sided trend has emerged yet.
🔸4H Chart: Gold continues to trend lower in a step-like, descending pattern. The recent high at 3345 marks a lower high, and current resistance is forming near the downtrend line and the midline of the Bollinger Bands—around 3333 and 3320. Price action suggests high probability of rejection in this zone. We recommend continuing to short near resistance, with the next target at the 3255 level. The overall structure remains a slow, choppy downtrend.
🔸1H Chart: The bearish trend persists with new local lows being formed. Moving averages are aligned in a clear downtrend formation with strong bearish momentum. After breaking below 3313 yesterday, a minor rebound failed to hold, confirming 3313 as a key resistance level. Now, early trading is facing pressure near 3315, suggesting a good area to look for short entries.
🔴Key Resistance Zone: 3315–3320
🟢Key Support Zone: 3287–3275
✅Trading Strategy Reference:
🔻Short Strategy:
🔰Enter short positions in the 3313–3315 area in multiple entries.
🔰Stop loss: 8–10 USD
🔰Target: 3300–3285, with potential extension toward 3275 if support is broken.
🔺Long Strategy:
🔰Consider long positions in the 3275–3278 range with staggered entries.
🔰Stop loss: 8–10 USD
🔰Target: 3290–3300, with further upside potential toward 3305 if resistance breaks.
🔥Note: Trading strategies are time-sensitive. For more accurate and real-time Trading Signals, feel free to contact me directly.
7.9 Latest gold trend analysis and operation layout📰 News information:
1. Federal Reserve meeting minutes
📈 Technical Analysis:
Our decision to close our positions at 3305 yesterday was undoubtedly a very strategic one. After reaching a high of around 3310 last night, it began to fall. At the same time, I also gave VIP members the news that it might fall back to around 3300. Since the opening, the lowest point has reached around 3285. The overall trend is still under our control.
At present, gold will still usher in technical corrections in the short term. The current price of 3293-3290 support can be considered for long positions. If the European session continues to fall below the low, you can try to go short during the NY session. If the European session continues to maintain sideways consolidation, you can consider retreating and going long during the NY session. As long as the key support of 3250 below is held, gold will maintain its consolidation trend in short-term trading. On the contrary, once it falls below 3250, gold may directly touch the 3200 mark. Focus on the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting, which may further influence the trend of gold.
🎯 Trading Points:
BUY 3293-3290-3285
TP 3305-3310-3320
In addition to investment, life also includes poetry, distant places, and Allen. Facing the market is actually facing yourself, correcting your shortcomings, facing your mistakes, and exercising strict self-discipline. I share free trading strategies and analysis ideas every day for reference by brothers. I hope my analysis can help you.
Analysis of the latest gold trend next week:
Analysis of gold news: Friday (July 4) coincided with the US Independence Day holiday, and gold prices were in a narrow range of fluctuations. Strong employment data not only pushed up the US dollar and US bond yields, but also significantly weakened the market's expectations of the Federal Reserve's early rate cuts, which greatly reduced the attractiveness of gold. At the same time, the US Congress passed the Trump administration's massive tax cut and spending bill, further injecting complex variables into the economy. There will be no key data to watch today. Due to the US Independence Day, all markets will close early, which will limit the fluctuation range of gold prices.
Key technical signals:
Daily level:
Range fluctuations: Gold prices repeatedly tested in the 3320-3360 range, the Bollinger band narrowed, and the MACD kinetic energy column shrank, indicating that the market was in a wait-and-see mood.
Key support/resistance:
Support: 3320 (5-day moving average), 3300 (psychological barrier + Bollinger lower track).
Resistance: 3350-3360 (non-agricultural starting point + daily middle track).
4-hour level:
Short-term bottoming signs: After the non-agricultural data, the gold price fell to 3322 and then rebounded, forming a double bottom prototype, but it needs to break through 3350 to confirm the reversal.
RSI is neutral (around 50) and may maintain a narrow range of fluctuations in the short term.
2. Next week's market deduction
1. Baseline scenario (oscillation and consolidation, 60% probability)
Trend: The gold price fluctuates in the 3320-3360 range, waiting for CPI data to guide the direction.
Operation strategy:
Short-term high-sell and low-buy:
Long order: Long at around 3320-3325, stop loss 3305, target 3350.
Short order: Short at 3350-3360 under pressure, stop loss 3370, target 3320.
2. Bullish breakthrough scenario (30% probability, CPI data required)
Trigger conditions: CPI is lower than expected (such as below 3.2%), the market re-bets on interest rate cuts, and the US dollar weakens.
Trend: After breaking through 3360, it may test 3380 (200-day moving average) or even 3400.
Operation strategy:
Break through and chase long: Follow up after stabilizing 3360, target 3380-3400.
3. Bearish breakout scenario (10% probability, need continued strength of the US dollar)
Trigger conditions: CPI is stronger than expected (such as more than 3.5%), and the Fed's hawkish remarks suppress expectations of rate cuts.
Trend: After breaking below 3300, it may test 3260 (June low).
Operation strategy:
Break through and follow short: After breaking below 3300, chase short, target 3260.
III. Trading strategy and risk management
Short-term trading (suitable for intraday positions)
Shock strategy: Buy high and sell low in the range of 3320-3360, with strict stop loss (10$-15$).
Breakout strategy: Wait for CPI data and follow the trend. If it breaks through 3360, chase longs or if it falls below 3300, follow shorts.
Mid-term layout (pay attention to the trend after CPI)
If CPI is positive: set up long orders at 3330-3340, with a target of 3400.
If CPI is negative: set up short orders at 3350-3360, with a target of 3260.
Risk warning
Liquidity risk: Speech by Fed officials (such as Powell) may trigger short-term sharp fluctuations.
Geopolitical risk: Sudden conflicts or banking crises may trigger safe-haven buying, breaking the technical logic.
4. Summary and key points
Core range: 3320-3360 (maintain the idea of oscillation before breaking through).
Long-short watershed:
Breaking through 3360 → opening up space to 3400.
Breaking through 3300 → opening a downward trend to 3260.
BullsSince hitting 3360+ Gold has formed a channel(flag) on which it has been declining on. Main goal is the 71 -79 retracement region before we get back to buys towards new all time highs.
Currently we at the lower end of the channel giving a buy opportunity towards the 1hr FVG @3325-3330 where we will also look for more sells and target 3280 -3274 (the 71 -79 retracement region).
NB don't force the market and watchout for major news
Gold Price Setup: Bullish Continuation or Rejection? 🧠 Chart Analysis (XAU/USD – 1H):
Key Structure Highlights:
CHoCH (Change of Character) zones marked both up and down indicate a battle between bulls and bears.
Recent bullish CHoCH followed by a fair value gap (FVG) retest suggests potential continuation to the upside.
Price recently bounced strongly from demand zone, shown by the green arrows and strong candle reaction.
Ichimoku Cloud:
Price is trying to break back above the Kumo (cloud), a sign of bullish momentum building.
However, resistance is still present with the Kijun and Tenkan lines converging.
FVG (Fair Value Gap):
The current price is attempting to fill and break above the FVG zone.
A successful breakout above this area confirms bullish intention.
Fibonacci Levels:
Price is hovering around the 0.5 - 0.618 retracement zone, often a strong reversal or continuation point.
Upside targets lie near the 0.786 retracement (3352) and ultimate target at 3391, a major resistance level.
Risk Management:
Trade setup shows an excellent Risk:Reward ratio.
Stop-loss placed just below the last structure low.
Potential downside to 3290–3258 if breakout fails.
🟢 Possible Next Move:
Bullish Scenario: If price clears the FVG and breaks above 3353, expect continuation to 3391.
Bearish Rejection: If rejected at FVG/0.618 level, watch for a drop back to 3290 or even 3259.
XAU/USD 15M CHART PATTERNHere's a structured summary of your XAUUSD (Gold/USD) trade setup:
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📈 Trade Setup: BUY XAUUSD
Entry: 3333
Stop Loss: 3320 (13 pips below entry)
---
🎯 Take Profit Levels:
1. TP1: 3340 (7 pips gain)
2. TP2: 3350 (17 pips gain)
3. TP3: 3370 (37 pips gain)
---
⚖ Risk/Reward Ratios (Approx):
TP1: ~0.54 : 1
TP2: ~1.31 : 1
TP3: ~2.85 : 1
---
✅ Comments:
You’re targeting scaling out profits as the price climbs, which is a sound risk management approach.
Stop loss is tight, so you may get stopped out easily on volatility unless you're trading with confirmation (e.g., bounce from support or bullish candlestick setup).
Consider monitoring macroeconomic events or news that could affect gold prices (like CPI, NFP, Fed speeches).
Would you like help with setting this up in a trading platform or calculating position size based on your risk?
GOLD SETUP UPDATE - CLEAN BREAKOUT & RETEST PLANGold just broke out of a falling wedge pattern with a clean 5-wave completion.
Now it's pulling back — we prepare for two potential scenarios:
🔹 Scenario A:
If price retests the lower trendline (around 3,315–3,320) and gives a strong rejection, we look to buy targeting:
→ 3,345
→ 3,359
🔹 Scenario B:
If it skips the retest and continues to rally — we follow the breakout momentum.
✅ EMA ribbons are still holding bullish.
✅ MACD histogram flipped green — showing buyer pressure coming in.
🚫 Invalid if price breaks below 3,307 or 3,296.
Time to cut and reassess if that happens.
💡 Reminder: Wait for confirmation. Don’t FOMO.
Plan your trade — ride the structure, not the hype.
#GoldAnalysis #TechnicalSetup #ForexTrading #PriceAction #FaizIsmail
XAU/USD Eyes Key Resistance Amid Fresh Tariff Fears🟡 TVC:GOLD Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Eyes Key Resistance Amid Fresh Tariff Fears
OANDA:XAUUSD Spot gold (XAU/USD) is recovering from intraday lows near $3,296, now trading around $3,330 as fears over renewed U.S. tariffs fuel safe-haven demand. President Trump has begun issuing formal letters announcing fresh import tariffs—25% on South Korea, additional measures on Japan, and a 10% universal tariff on countries aligning with BRICS. With the 90-day tariff pause expiring August 1 and no trade progress in sight, geopolitical and economic uncertainty continue to support gold’s floor.
📉 Technical Structure
XAU/USD remains within a descending channel on the 1H chart, with price currently approaching the $3,338–$3,340 Resistance Zone 1. A clean breakout above the upper channel boundary could trigger a move toward the broader $3,364 Resistance Zone 2. Conversely, failure to break above Resistance Zone 1 would keep the bearish channel intact, with downside targets toward the $3,302–$3,305 support zone.
📌 Key Technical Zones
Resistance Zone 1: $3,338–$3,340
Resistance Zone 2: $3,364
Support Zone: $3,302–$3,305
Channel Structure: Bearish unless broken to the upside
📘 Strategy Summary
XAU/USD is showing signs of short-term recovery, but remains technically capped unless it breaks through $3,340 resistance. As long as the descending channel holds, rallies may be sold into. A confirmed break above $3,340 could shift bias toward $3,364, while rejection may reopen the path to $3,305 and potentially lower.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed financial advisor before making trading decisions.
Gold Analysis and Trading Strategy | July 7✅Gold opened weakly during the Asian session today, with prices dropping nearly $40 in early trading—likely due to technical selling pressure from above. The rebound once again failed to break the key 3345 resistance level, which serves as the neckline of the previous “M-top” pattern formed at the 3365 high. This level has become a clear resistance zone. If gold continues to struggle below this line, the short-term trend remains biased toward consolidation with a bearish tone.
✅ 4-Hour Chart Structure:
Since retreating from the 3365 high, multiple rebound attempts have been capped around the 3345 area. Last Friday, a second rally failed at the mid-Bollinger Band and closed lower, forming a local double-top pattern. This morning’s rebound to 3342 was again rejected, confirming continued downward pressure in this area.
✅ 1-Hour Chart Structure:
After the release of last week's non-farm payrolls data, gold formed a short-term double top. After breaking the neckline, the rebound lacked momentum, reaffirming that sellers dominate near resistance. In the short term, bearish pressure remains in control.
✅ Key Technical Levels:
🔴Short-term Resistance: 3325–3330
🔴Major Resistance Zone: 3345 (M-top neckline)
🔴Strong Resistance: 3365 (M-top peak)
🟢Short-term Support: 3305
🟢Critical Support: 3295
🟢A break below 3295 could open further downside toward 3275 or even 3246
✅Intraday Trading Strategy:
🔻 Short Position Strategy:
Consider layering into short positions around the 3325–3330 area. Stop-loss: 8–10 $
Targets: 3310–3300; if 3300 breaks, watch for a move toward 3295
🔺 Long Position Strategy:
If price pulls back and stabilizes around 3295–3298, consider layering into long positions. Stop-loss: 8–10 $
Targets: 3305–3315; if 3315 breaks, look for a move toward 3325
✅Strategy Summary & Outlook:
Gold remains in a broad high-level consolidation phase, with frequent short-term shifts between bullish and bearish sentiment. We recommend a range-trading approach—selling on rallies and buying on dips—while closely monitoring whether the 3345–3350 resistance zone is breached. This key area will likely determine the directional breakout this week.
✅Maintain disciplined risk management, avoid chasing moves, and stay alert to intraday momentum shifts.
Gold rebounded from the bottom. Is the decline over?Gold prices faced selling pressure in today's Asian market. The price fell from 3343 to around 3320 in the early Asian session. The European price continued to fall, reaching a low of around 3296, and then rebounded upward. The current price is fluctuating around 3320.
Most investors will focus on the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting to be released on Wednesday to get guidance on the trend.
From the hourly chart, the upper pressure position is constantly being corrected. The current average pressure value is around 3330-3335. At the same time, this position is also the watershed between long and short positions in the previous dense area. The price may rebound to this position again. The lower support level is in the range of 3300-3290.
Quaid believes that the current market is still showing a downward trend, and the price may fall back below 3300 again.
Operation strategy:
Short around 3330, stop loss 3340, profit range 3310-3300, sustainable ownership after breakthrough.
Gold short-term shock operation ideas
💡Message Strategy
Current Price and Context
Gold is trading around $3,310 and continues to retreat as traders remain cautious amid heightened macroeconomic uncertainty. While some safe-haven demand remains, a stronger dollar and weakening confidence among safe-haven buyers put gold under selling pressure. Concerns about global trade policy and tightening monetary policy continue to weigh on gold's short-term outlook.
Key Drivers
Geopolitical Risks: Trade tensions and global uncertainty have again sparked cautious sentiment, which has provided limited support for gold, but the absence of major conflicts has left it lacking direction.
U.S. Economic Data: Strong labor market data and upcoming inflation data supported the dollar, curbing gold's upward momentum.
FOMC Outcomes: The Fed remains cautious and does not signal an immediate rate cut; high yields reduce the appeal of non-interest-bearing assets such as gold.
Trade Policy: While tariffs have been a concern, flows between risk and safe-haven assets have been mixed as there has been no new escalation.
Monetary policy: Rising global bond yields and the Federal Reserve's wait-and-see attitude limit gold's gains in the short term.
📊Technical aspects
From the 4-hour analysis, the support line of 3290-3300 is concerned below, the short-term resistance above is concerned about 3315, and the suppression line of 3345-50 is focused on. The overall main tone of high-altitude low-multiple cycle participation remains unchanged. In the middle position, watch more and do less, and follow orders cautiously, and maintain the main tone of participation in the trend. Wait patiently for key points to participate. Pay attention to the specific operation strategy in time.
💰Strategy Package
Long Position:3290-3300,SL:3275,Target: 3330-3340
Short Position:3320-3330,SL:3305,Target: 3280-3290
New tariffs are coming. How should gold respond?📰 News information:
1. 90-day tariffs are about to expire
2. New unilateral tariffs
3. Geopolitical situation
📈 Technical Analysis:
On July 4th local time, there were constant turmoil in American politics and trade. Trump declared that the US government would send letters to trading partners that day to set new unilateral tariff rates, which would most likely take effect on August 1. He also revealed that the new tariff rates could soar to 70%. At the same time, Japan-US trade negotiations encountered obstacles, India planned to impose retaliatory tariffs on the United States, and the China-EU tariff war had also begun. At present, the news seems to be more favorable to the bulls.
From a technical point of view, gold closed higher last week, showing that there is still upward momentum this week. In the short term, we need to pay attention to the pressure in the 3365 and 3375 - 3380 areas, and the 3400 mark is a key position where bulls and bears are fighting fiercely. Before breaking through this position, we must be alert to the risk of falling back after a high rise. Pay attention to the support of 3310-3305 and 3295-3285 below. If effective support is obtained, we can consider going long. If it breaks, it may go to 3270-3260. Gold jumped to 3342 at the opening of the Asian session and then fell back. 3345 is the key in the short term. The news may affect its subsequent trend. In the short term, pay attention to the suppression of 3345 on the upper side, and further to the strong resistance area of 3365-3380. If there is resistance and pressure, you can short at a high level. The impact of recent news is erratic, so enter the market with caution and be sure to set TP and SL strictly.
🎯 Trading Points:
SELL 3330-3345
TP 3320-3310-3295
BUY 3310-3305
TP 3320-3330-3345
In addition to investment, life also includes poetry, distant places, and Allen. Facing the market is actually facing yourself, correcting your shortcomings, confronting your mistakes, and strictly disciplining yourself. I hope my analysis can help you🌐.
TVC:GOLD OANDA:XAUUSD FX:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD FXOPEN:XAUUSD
XAUUSD – Bearish Breakout Retest (TCB Strategy)🔍 Technical Overview:
Trend: Price has clearly broken below the rising channel.
Retest Zone: The grey box shows a bearish retest zone at 3,315–3,310, which price tapped before rejecting.
Current Support: Price is reacting at the 3,300 horizontal level (former demand zone).
Target Area: The blue box points to a possible TP zone around 3,263, aligned with previous structure support.
🔻 XAUUSD – Bearish Breakout Retest (TCB Strategy)
📅 Date: July 7, 2025
🕐 Timeframe: 1H
✅ Checklist Score: 95%
🔍 TCB Setup Breakdown:
Price broke below a rising channel and pulled back into a clean supply zone (3,310–3,315). NY session provided a strong rejection, aligning with structure shift and confirming short bias.
🎯 Entry: 3,310.00
🛑 Stop Loss: 3,316.50
🎯 Target: 3,263.47
📈 R-Multiple: Targeting ~+2.5R
🧠 Strategy: Trend → Countertrend → Breakout
📛 #TCBFlow #XAUUSD #GoldAnalysis #SmartMoneyConcepts #BreakoutRetest #TradingViewIdeas #GoldTrading #PriceAction #MarketStructure #NYSession #ForexStrategy #RiskReward #TrendlineBreak #SupplyDemand
Analysis of the latest gold trend next week:
Analysis of gold news: Friday (July 4) coincided with the US Independence Day holiday, and gold prices were in a narrow range of fluctuations. Strong employment data not only pushed up the US dollar and US bond yields, but also significantly weakened the market's expectations of the Federal Reserve's early rate cuts, which greatly reduced the attractiveness of gold. At the same time, the US Congress passed the Trump administration's massive tax cut and spending bill, further injecting complex variables into the economy. There will be no key data to watch today. Due to the US Independence Day, all markets will close early, which will limit the fluctuation range of gold prices.
Key technical signals:
Daily level:
Range fluctuations: Gold prices repeatedly tested in the 3320-3360 range, the Bollinger band narrowed, and the MACD kinetic energy column shrank, indicating that the market was in a wait-and-see mood.
Key support/resistance:
Support: 3320 (5-day moving average), 3300 (psychological barrier + Bollinger lower track).
Resistance: 3350-3360 (non-agricultural starting point + daily middle track).
4-hour level:
Short-term bottoming signs: After the non-agricultural data, the gold price fell to 3322 and then rebounded, forming a double bottom prototype, but it needs to break through 3350 to confirm the reversal.
RSI is neutral (around 50) and may maintain a narrow range of fluctuations in the short term.
2. Next week's market deduction
1. Baseline scenario (oscillation and consolidation, 60% probability)
Trend: The gold price fluctuates in the 3320-3360 range, waiting for CPI data to guide the direction.
Operation strategy:
Short-term high-sell and low-buy:
Long order: Long at around 3320-3325, stop loss 3305, target 3350.
Short order: Short at 3350-3360 under pressure, stop loss 3370, target 3320.
2. Bullish breakthrough scenario (30% probability, CPI data required)
Trigger conditions: CPI is lower than expected (such as below 3.2%), the market re-bets on interest rate cuts, and the US dollar weakens.
Trend: After breaking through 3360, it may test 3380 (200-day moving average) or even 3400.
Operation strategy:
Break through and chase long: Follow up after stabilizing 3360, target 3380-3400.
3. Bearish breakout scenario (10% probability, need continued strength of the US dollar)
Trigger conditions: CPI is stronger than expected (such as more than 3.5%), and the Fed's hawkish remarks suppress expectations of rate cuts.
Trend: After breaking below 3300, it may test 3260 (June low).
Operation strategy:
Break through and follow short: After breaking below 3300, chase short, target 3260.
III. Trading strategy and risk management
Short-term trading (suitable for intraday positions)
Shock strategy: Buy high and sell low in the range of 3320-3360, with strict stop loss (10$-15$).
Breakout strategy: Wait for CPI data and follow the trend. If it breaks through 3360, chase longs or if it falls below 3300, follow shorts.
Mid-term layout (pay attention to the trend after CPI)
If CPI is positive: set up long orders at 3330-3340, with a target of 3400.
If CPI is negative: set up short orders at 3350-3360, with a target of 3260.
Risk warning
Liquidity risk: Speech by Fed officials (such as Powell) may trigger short-term sharp fluctuations.
Geopolitical risk: Sudden conflicts or banking crises may trigger safe-haven buying, breaking the technical logic.
4. Summary and key points
Core range: 3320-3360 (maintain the idea of oscillation before breaking through).
Long-short watershed:
Breaking through 3360 → opening up space to 3400.
Breaking through 3300 → opening a downward trend to 3260.
XAUUSDHello traders,
The Gold trade I shared last week has just hit TP. Based on current market conditions, I believe gold may continue its downward movement for a while. Therefore, I’m still holding a bearish bias and have just activated a new sell trade, which I’d like to share with you as well.
🔍 Trade Details
✔️ Timeframe: 1-Hour (H1)
✔️ Risk-to-Reward Ratio: 1:3
✔️ Trade Direction: Sell
✔️ Entry Price: 3310.11
✔️ Take Profit: 3266.76
✔️ Stop Loss: 3324.51
🔔 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. I’m simply sharing a trade I’ve taken based on my personal trading system, strictly for educational and illustrative purposes.
📌 Interested in a systematic, data-driven trading approach?
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