XAUUSDG trade ideas
XAU/USD – Elliott Wave Update | Wave (2) in Progress)OANDA:XAUUSD
🔍 Wave Structure Overview
We’re currently in a
Prior impulse (likely 1-2-3-4-5) completed, forming (Circle) wave ①
Current correction unfolding as (A)-(B)-(C) in yellow
↳ Presently in wave (A) or transitioning into (B)
↳ Within (B), structure is forming as A-B-C
↳ Currently tracking 5-wave move from 4 to 5
📐 Fibonacci & Key Levels
Watching 61.8% retracement as a critical support zone ✅
This level also marks a high-probability TP area for short positions
Strong confluence:
🔹 Fibonacci retracement
🔹 Extension alignment (e.g. yellow fib extension to ~4403)
🔹 Trendline reaction expected
🧠 Trade Setup (Scenario-Based)
🔸 Scenario A – Early Entry:
Enter small long near 61.8% Fib zone
SL: Below last swing low
TP: To be refined once C-wave completes
🔸 Scenario B – Confirmation Entry:
Wait for break above red trendline
Add position
SL below Fib zone low
TP around Fibonacci extension / structure resistance (~4403)
⚠️ Key Considerations
Many positions will close in this zone → increase in selling pressure
Possible reversal zone → watch for confirmation (impulse or ABC)
Once wave (C) completes, we’ll likely see entry into a larger bearish move
📎 Conclusion
This is a high-probability reversal zone, supported by Elliott structure and Fib levels. I’m planning to scale in based on price action and confirmation.
📈 Stay flexible, manage risk, and watch the structure evolve.
Gold: ascending triangle sets up big opportunityGold has traded sideways for 93 days, but breakout traders should take note. A clear ascending triangle is forming, offering a high reward-to-risk setup. I walk through the key levels, breakout zone, and why this could lead to a 6x return. Bulls may be frustrated, but momentum is building. Are you ready?
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Bearish drop?The Gold (XAU/USD) has reacted off the pivot and could potentially drop to the 1st support, which is a pullback support that is slightly below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Pivot: 3,385.61
1st Support: 3,355.52
1st Resistance: 3,401.17
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Why emotionless trading is out (and what to do instead)Curious about what self-compassionate trading really means?
Let’s do a little thought experiment together. Imagine you just closed a losing trade. You’re feeling disappointed and unmotivated. You invite two friends over to your home and tell them what happened. Which friend would you rather talk to?
🙋🏽♀️ Friend 1 says:
"What a failure you are. Why were you even stressed out? That’s so silly. Couldn’t you see this trade was going to be a loss? You should just give up—what’s the point of trying? I don’t understand how you could mess up the way you did. Let’s spend the afternoon going through everything you did wrong."
...Or would you prefer:
🙋🏽♀️ Friend 2 who says:
"I can see you’re feeling sad and disappointed about that last trade. I’m really sorry it didn’t go your way. But you know what? Losses are a part of trading—we all go through them. You’ll have another chance tomorrow. I can tell you’re doing your best. Let’s do something kind for ourselves today, and tomorrow you’ll get back to it. Don’t give up—I’m proud of you for chasing your dreams."
🤔 So, who would you choose?
I know this little experiment might sound a bit dramatic—but be honest, wouldn’t we all prefer Friend 2 ? And isn’t Friend 1 sounding suspiciously like that inner critic of yours?
For the longest time, trading advice has told us to "get rid of emotions" and stay completely “stress-free.” I wish it were that simple…
The truth is, trying to trade without emotions is like talking to yourself like Friend 1 . Not only is it impossible —it also builds a harsh, critical inner dialogue that damages both your confidence and motivation.
The reality is: we don’t have full control over our thoughts and emotions. They show up whether we want them to or not. If we could choose our emotional state, we’d all stay calm and focused every time we trade. But that’s not how the human mind works.
Instead of fighting our emotions, we can learn to open up to them—without judgment.
Self-compassionate trading means treating yourself like Friend 2 . It’s about acknowledging when things are tough, and being kind to yourself when stress or anxiety shows up. It’s about replacing harsh self-talk with encouragement, warmth and understanding.
👩🏽🔬 Some people think self-compassion is soft, ”girly”, or even “too emotional.” But guess what? It’s backed by tons of solid research. Studies show that self-compassion helps reduce self-criticism and improve motivation. It’s also an effective tool for managing tough emotions and reducing stress and anxiety.
Self-compassionate trading is a win-win approach—it helps you stay grounded and resilient while building a meaningful trading journey. So why not give it a try? 👇
💡 Pro Tip:
Next time you close a losing trade, find yourself in a losing streak, or just feel anxious about your performance—ask yourself:
“What would I say to a good friend who’s going through the same thing?”
Then offer that same kindness and support to yourself.
Happy (self-compassionate) trading! 💙
/ Tina the Trading Psychologist
Gold Market Completes Bullish Wedge at 3439Gold market lures to 3439, completing the bullish wedge formation as anticipated.
A retracement is now setting in, with price action expected to sweep through 3391—a key zone that may determine the next leg of the trend.
Watch closely for confirmation at this level for a potential bullish continuation or deeper correction. follow for more insight , comment and boost idea
GOLD Analysis : SR Interchange , Reversal Zone + High Break🧠 Market Context & Structural Overview:
Gold has been trading within a clearly defined bullish structure after forming a rounded base pattern in early July, indicating accumulation by smart money. The market recently broke through a key horizontal resistance (previous swing high), marking a potential bullish continuation phase. However, we are now witnessing a pullback — a healthy corrective phase — that is currently testing multiple high-probability confluences.
🧱 Key Technical Zones Explained:
🔹 1. SR Interchange Zone – High Probability Reversal Area:
This area (roughly between $3,360 and $3,380) acted as previous resistance (supply) and has now flipped into support.
This is a textbook Support-Resistance Interchange (SR Flip) — a concept where prior resistance becomes new support.
Traders often look for entries here, especially when it aligns with other technical factors.
🔹 2. Curve Line Support – Dynamic Buyer Strength Indicator:
A curved trendline, often referred to as a parabolic support, has been respecting price structure for over two weeks.
Price is now sitting exactly on this support, signaling potential for another impulsive bullish leg if momentum builds.
🔹 3. Supply Zone Completed – Correction Phase Active:
The supply zone above (approx. $3,420–$3,440) has already been tapped and respected by the market.
This “completed” supply may now act as resistance unless broken with strong volume — we now watch how price reacts at the current pullback zone.
📊 What the Candles Are Telling Us:
The latest candles show some hesitation from sellers — wick rejections and smaller body candles hint at buyer interest at this level. However, confirmation is crucial. We want to see a bullish reversal pattern such as:
Bullish engulfing
Morning star
Pin bar (hammer)
Break and retest of minor resistance inside the SR zone
🔮 Scenarios to Watch:
✅ Scenario 1 – Bullish Continuation (Ideal Setup):
If a bullish reversal forms at this support zone:
Expect a potential rally back to the $3,420–$3,440 resistance area.
If this zone breaks with high volume, price could target the major supply zone near $3,465+, where we’ll need “Needed Volume” for a decisive break.
⚠️ Scenario 2 – Bearish Breakdown (Alternative View):
If the curve support and SR zone fail to hold:
Expect a drop towards $3,345 – $3,320 — where next structural support lies.
This would suggest a deeper retracement or range formation before bulls can regroup.
🧩 Strategy & Psychology:
“We want bullish pattern here.”
You’ve highlighted the importance of not entering impulsively. This is about trading with confirmation, not prediction. Waiting for a valid bullish pattern reduces risk and increases probability.
This is where smart traders win — waiting patiently for confirmation at a zone of confluence.
🧠 Learning Mindset – Why This Zone Matters:
Combines horizontal support, curved trendline, and broken structure retest.
This zone is the battleground between bulls and bears — whoever wins here will likely control short-term momentum.
Newer traders can study this as a classic example of multi-confluence trading, which combines price action, market structure, and dynamic trendlines.
XAU/USD – Current Wave Count & Potential ScenariosOANDA:XAUUSD
We are currently moving from (white) wave 3 to (white) wave 4.
So far, I am leaning towards the white count where the waves labeled (A), (B), (C) form a larger corrective wave A, which leads to wave B, and then to (white) wave 4.
Up to now, we have only completed (A) and (B).
Now, in the yellow bracket, we can interpret a 1-2-3-4-5 structure leading to (white) wave C 🟡.
Alternatively, one could interpret a triangle pattern (pink count):
Waves A, B, C, D, E, which would then form our wave 4.
In that case, we would expect bullish targets afterwards 🚀.
We need to watch closely if the price reverses or breaks through our yellow Fibonacci zone 🟡.
For now, we are primarily looking for upside potential 🔼.
From our yellow wave 2, we saw a downward push, which could theoretically be our yellow wave 1 leading into yellow wave 2 and the yellow Fibonacci zone — essentially a five-wave move from wave 2 to wave 3.
XAUUSD Analysis TodayHello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis
Gold short-term bearish
From the Bollinger daily line, as shown in the figure below, the gold price should still test the lower track of $3,280 in the future. The short-term upward trend line has also been broken, and this yellow line has now become a pressure.
From the moving average system, the daily line is chaotic, and the gold price goes up and down without order and rules to cross the moving average, so the daily moving average system has no reference significance. From the weekly line, the gold price has the need to step back on the 20-week moving average of $3,277 to $3,280.
So, if I look at the bearish, I can only see $3,277 to $3,280. No deeper decline can be seen, and no more signals appear. Therefore, shorting is relatively short. Or it is short within the daily Bollinger track, not structural short or trend short. Everything has a law, just oscillation.
So, I think that even if there is a short in the future, it is the end of the short. It is the right way to stop when you see good results. Even though the current gold price has fallen due to the short-term positive tariff negotiations between Trump, Japan and the European Union, the tariff level is still much higher than before, which will undoubtedly bring more uncertainty to future economic growth. Many other factors are not conducive to a sharp drop in gold prices. The overall situation is that the basic trend of gold price increases is intact.
Therefore, the high point of $3345.30 has become the watershed between long and short positions. You can use this as the dividing line for long and short operations. There is nothing wrong with setting a loss above $3345.30 to short in batches. There is nothing wrong with placing a long position at 3346. The market trend is very uncertain, so it all depends on what order you want to make.
Daily gold analysisDaily gold analysis
A long position with the target and stop loss as shown in the chart
The trend is up, we may see more upside
All the best, I hope for your participation in the analysis, and for any inquiries, please send in the comments.
He gave a signal from the strongest areas of entry, special recommendations, with a success rate of 95%, for any inquiry or request for analysis, contact me
Gold 4H - channel breakout, looking for 3518 nextGold has formed a clean ascending channel on the 4H chart, broke out above resistance, and is now pulling back into the 3385–3390 zone. This area aligns with volume clusters - a perfect entry zone for bulls waiting on the sidelines.
If price holds this zone and prints a reversal candle with volume, the upside target remains at 3518 - the 1.618 Fibonacci extension and historical resistance. Volume increased during the breakout move, confirming interest. RSI still has room to go higher, supporting the bullish continuation.
Fundamentally, gold remains a safe-haven asset amid geopolitical tension, USD weakness, and potential Fed easing. Central bank accumulation further supports the bullish case.
Tactical setup:
— Entry zone: 3385–3390
— Trigger: candle confirmation + volume
— Target: 3518
— Invalidation: break below 3360 without buyer volume
If the plan plays out — gold might shine bright while bears squint in disbelief.
DeGRAM | GOLD will retest the channel boundary📊 Technical Analysis
● Fresh rejection at the blue resistance line (~3 435) pushed XAU back to the 3 355 mid-band, yet successive higher-lows (green arrows) keep price inside the May-origin rising channel.
● The pullback is probing 3 328-3 355 — confluence of the former flag roof and triangle top; holding this zone should launch another test of 3 400/3 435, with the channel crest targeting 3 500.
💡 Fundamental Analysis
● U-S S&P-Global PMIs softened, nudging 2-yr real yields to three-week lows, while cautious ECB rhetoric limits dollar gains — both supportive for gold.
✨ Summary
Long 3 328-3 355; above that aims 3 400 ➜ 3 435, stretch 3 500. Invalidate on an H4 close below 3 293.
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GOLD Weekly Idea💡Why Gold Pulled Back
- Gold pulled back today after hitting $3439.04, just below resistance at $3451.53. Traders took profits ahead of key Fed and trade headlines. Right now, it’s trading around $3414.48, down 0.50%.
- The dip came after the U.S.-Japan trade deal eased geopolitical tension, cutting safe-haven demand. Plus, U.S. bond yields are climbing (10-year at 4.384%), which adds pressure on gold.
Support is building at $3374.42, with stronger buying interest expected around $3347.97 and the 50-day moving average at $3336.40 — a key level bulls want to defend.
Short-term looks a bit weak, but as long as gold holds above the 50-day MA, the bullish trend remains intact. Longer-term, weakness in the dollar, central bank gold buying, and concerns about Fed independence could push prices higher.
🔍Watching the Fed’s July 29–30 meeting next
Gold: This Week's Analysis & StrategyThis week, the fluctuations have clearly moderated📉. Focus on a strategy of buying at lows and selling at highs as much as possible📈. Currently, the resistance around 3350 is prominent🚧, and 3300 acts as support below🛡️. If the decline continues, it may reach around 3285👇
We successfully took short positions last week 📉, and this week I recommend going long at lower levels 📈. Over the long term, gold remains in a bull market 🐂, but it will not repeat the frenzy seen in April; instead, it will maintain a steady upward pace ⬆️.
Market expectations for Fed rate cuts have been volatile so far this year 📊. At the start of the year, as Trump-related developments unfolded, market optimism faded 😐. Meanwhile, the de-dollarization trend fueled growing expectations of Fed rate cuts 💹. By early April, Trump’s reciprocal tariff measures—far more aggressive than expected—roiled global financial markets 🌍, triggering a surge in concerns about a U.S. recession ⚠️. Markets thus anticipated that the Fed would cut rates quickly to shore up the economy, with expectations for rate cuts within the year once exceeding 100 basis points 📉. However, shortly after, Trump announced a 90-day extension of the reciprocal tariffs, easing market pessimism 😌 and driving a strong rebound in U.S. stocks 📈. At this point, markets began worrying that his tariff policies could spark an inflation rebound 🔥, leading to a steady decline in rate cut expectations—currently, expectations for rate cuts this year have dropped to fewer than two 🔄.
Risk Warning ⚠️
Event Sensitivity: Outcomes of China-U.S. trade talks 🤝, the Fed’s statements , and nonfarm payroll data 📊 may trigger one-sided volatility. Positions should be adjusted promptly to avoid risks 🛡️
⚡️⚡️⚡️ XAUUSD ⚡️⚡️⚡️
🚀 Buy@ 3300 -3310
🚀 TP 3320 - 3330 - 3340
🚀 Sell@ 3350 -3340
🚀 TP 3330 - 3320 - 3310
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