GOLD recovers strongly, market will wait for US CPI dataOANDA:XAUUSD rebounded strongly in Asian trading on Wednesday (June 11) after a sharp decline in the New York session on Tuesday. The current gold price is around $3,341/ounce, up nearly $20 on the day.
Traders are awaiting the release of the latest US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for May. Estimates suggest that prices are likely to rise as US households feel the impact of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. As a result, the Federal Reserve is likely to remain in a wait-and-see mode, keeping interest rates in the range of 4.25%-4.50%."
Economists expect the US CPI to rise to 2.5% year-over-year in May from 2.3%, and the core CPI to rise to 2.9% year-over-year from 2.8%.
OANDA:XAUUSD rose in Asian trade on Wednesday, even as the US and China said they had agreed on a plan to ease trade tensions during talks in London.
According to Bloomberg, easing between the world's two largest economies would be negative for safe-haven assets like gold, and the lack of a decline in gold prices suggests investors are waiting for more developments.
Gold prices have risen more than 25% this year as US President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff policies have changed geopolitical dynamics, prompting central banks to buy gold to divest from US assets.
Bloomberg also said investors are looking ahead to Thursday’s US Treasury bond auction and weak demand could boost gold’s appeal as a safe haven.
Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, after receiving support from the confluence of the EMA21 with the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement, the important support area noted by readers in the previous editions, gold has recovered once again.
The short-term upside target remains unchanged at $3,371 of the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement.
Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) rising from 50 is also a good signal for bullish momentum, and the large gap between the overbought area and the RSI shows that there is still a lot of room for upside ahead.
During the day, as long as gold remains above $3,292, it remains bullish in the short term with targets of $3,371 in the short term, more than the raw price point of $3,400. The positions will also be listed as follows.
Support: $3,300 – $3,292 – $3,250
Resistance: $3,371 – $3,400
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3376 - 3374⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3380
→Take Profit 1 3368
↨
→Take Profit 2 3362
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3249 - 3251⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3245
→Take Profit 1 3257
↨
→Take Profit 2 3263
XAUUSDG trade ideas
XAU/USD 1H – Clean Impulsive Setup UnfoldingGold has completed a clean Wave (2) correction, bottoming at $3,292.30, respecting both structural demand and fib confluence. Price is now showing early signs of Wave (3) development to the upside.
📌 Key Structure:
Wave (1) High: $3,403.30
Wave (2) Low: $3,292.30 (confirmed higher low structure)
Market is now consolidating slightly above the 0.5 fib level ($3,324.45), with bullish structure still intact.
📈 Technical Confluence:
Price is holding the internal bullish trendline
RSI is neutral but building potential upside momentum
Price action is forming higher lows, indicating strength post-correction
🎯 Next Bullish Targets:
$3,366.08 (0.236 fib level of Wave (2) correction)
$3,403.30 (Wave (1) high retest)
Final Wave (3) extension zone: $3,445 – $3,500
📉 Invalidation Level:
A break and close below $3,292.30 would invalidate this Wave (2) bottom and open the door for a deeper correction.
✅ Bias:
Bullish, as long as price holds above the 0.618 – 0.705 fib zone. A strong push from this area could confirm the next leg of Wave (3).
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Lingrid | GOLD Weekly Market Analysis: Consolidation ContinuesTVC:GOLD has developed a double top pattern, marking a significant shift from the previous consolidation phase. The recent rejection from the $3,400 resistance zone has created a bearish reversal structure that's now testing critical support levels. 4H chart reveals a clear double top formation with peaks around $3,400, followed by a decisive breakout below the flag pattern that previously suggested continuation. This technical deterioration represents a major shift in market structure, with the upward trendline now serving as resistance rather than support.
Current price action at $3,309 sits dangerously close to the key support level at $3,245. A break below this zone would likely trigger accelerated selling toward the major support area around $3,120, representing the bottom of the recent consolidation range. Previous weekly highs (PWHs) around $3,354 now serve as immediate resistance, with the double top peaks at $3,400 representing the more significant barrier. Any recovery attempts will likely face selling pressure at these levels, creating a challenging environment for bullish momentum.
The upward trendline breach is another bearish development, as this line had provided support throughout the entire rally from the cycle lows. Its violation suggests a potential shift in the primary trend structure, though the major support at $3,120 remains intact. However, the major support confluence around $3,120 could provide a lifeline for bulls. This level represents multiple technical factors including previous significant lows and the bottom of the recent consolidation range, making it a natural area for buying interest to emerge.
The current setup suggests gold is entering a more challenging phase where rallies may be sold rather than bought. The shift from continuation to reversal patterns indicates a potential change in market sentiment that could persist until major support levels are tested and either hold or break decisively.
Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩💻
XAU/USD (Gold) – Short Setup Within Ascending Channel🕒 30-Minute Chart | 🗓️ June 12, 2025
Gold is trading within a well-defined ascending parallel channel, respecting both upper and lower bounds consistently. Currently, price has:
🔹 Rejected the upper boundary of the channel.
🔹 Formed a possible double-top or liquidity sweep, suggesting a potential short-term top.
🔹 Entered a supply zone, marked in red, where selling pressure has re-emerged.
🔹 A strong bearish engulfing move indicates sellers are regaining control.
🎯 Trade Idea:
Entry : Near 3,385–3,390 USD (supply zone rejection)
Target : Lower boundary of the channel around 3,324–3,318 USD
Stop Loss : Just above the recent high (~3,413 USD)
📌 Volume Profile: Visible volume nodes show heavy activity near 3,375 USD and 3,360 USD, which might act as interim support.
📉 Bearish bias until price either :
Breaks below the mid-channel zone (~3,360 USD), or
Reclaims and holds above the red supply zone.
🧠 Watch for reactions at key support levels – if buyers return, it could signal a channel continuation instead of a full breakdown.
XAUUSD waiting for my next buycorrection continues i already sold at 3399 and took profit at 3355, i closed it early because it s a sell trade and sell trades doesnt always hit the fibo levels, but still i am expecting price to drop around 3330-3325-3310 area i will buy there. to 35xx target dependin on where it ends.
DeGRAM | GOLD broke the wedge📊 Technical Analysis
● Price still respects the former channel roof (now support) at 3 315-3 320; every dip to this line (green arrows) printed a higher low, preserving the rising-wedge structure.
● A break of the local wedge cap at 3 350 would reopen the April supply/median target at 3 435; failure to pierce keeps the pull-back window open toward the lower grey band at 3 245, where the broader demand begins.
💡 Fundamental Analysis
● US ISM-services prices and NFP cooled, lifting September Fed-cut odds >70 % and capping real yields, while continued PBoC purchases offset ETF outflows, under-pinning bullion.
✨ Summary
Buy 3 305-3 320; confirmation above 3 350 targets 3 435, extension 3 500. Long bias void on an H4 close below 3 245.
-------------------
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Analysis of Today's Gold Market Trend and Trading IdeasYesterday, gold prices rose to $3,338 before pulling back, closing the daily chart with a doji star. Weekly and monthly charts suggest an adjustment is needed, but short-term momentum is lacking, keeping the market in consolidation. During today's Asian session, gold prices fell to $3,302 under pressure and stabilized.
In the 4-hour timeframe, the rebound to $3,338 confirmed the previous support-turned-resistance level, which also coincides with the resistance of the broken low and the middle band of the Bollinger Bands. The current range-bound pattern remains unchanged. Today's strategy is to stay bearish but avoid chasing short positions—enter short trades when the price rebounds and meets resistance. Focus on the $3,340 resistance level, with support at the $3,300-$3,290 range.
XAUUSD
sell@3335-3340
tp:3310-3290
Investment itself is not the source of risk; it is only when investment behavior escapes rational control that risks lie in wait. In the trading process, always bear in mind that restraining impulsiveness is the primary criterion for success. I share trading signals daily, and all signals have been accurate without error for a full month. Regardless of your past profits or losses, with my assistance, you have the hope to achieve a breakthrough in your investment.
Gold is under pressure!OANDA:XAUUSD
My analysis is very faster working like rocket!
Now the resistance target is 3402
Length: 178
Direction: up
Quality: good
Pattern price: 3365
A potential uptick in the US CPI is not enough to rescue the dollar, with XAUUSD prices poised for a rally towards 3,400 USD.
Note: Today market is volatile for 4 extreme upcoming news, 1 from gbp, 3 from usd, So we will stop here and watching for next perfect buy entry. Thanks all
Gold May See Minor Pullback After Testing $3400📊 Market Development:
Gold surged to approach the $3,400 mark after U.S. Unemployment Claims came in higher than expected. The weak labor data increased speculation of an earlier rate cut by the Fed, pressuring the USD and bond yields, which in turn supported gold prices.
📉 Technical Analysis:
• Key Resistance: $3,400
• Nearest Support: $3,365
• EMA: Price remains above EMA 09 → bullish bias intact
• Candle/Volume/Momentum: Long upper wick on H1 suggests profit-taking near $3,400; declining volume may signal weakening momentum.
📌 Outlook:
Gold may experience a short-term pullback if it fails to break above $3,400 and the USD strengthens in the New York session.
💡 Suggested Trade Setup:
🔻 SELL XAU/USD at: $3,395–$3,400
🎯 TP: $3,375
❌ SL: $3,406
🔺 BUY XAU/USD at: $3,365–$3,370
🎯 TP: $3,390
❌ SL: $3,355
XAUUSD Where are we in the Wyckoff cycle?We are between Phase B and Phase C of a potential Distribution on the higher range (around $3400.
Here's the breakdown:
Buying Climax (BC) and Automatic Reaction (AR) are well-formed.
We are now waiting for the confirmation of the Secondary Tests and also a potential Upthrust Actions near the top around $3400 area.
Next logical sweep target will be Buy-side liquidity above PDH area.
Possibly creating Secondary test for confirmation.
Then it should trigger a markdown phase.
If distribution fails, Smart Money would invalidate the entire range with a full Breakout + Retest + Continuation above 3,400 but low probability without more volume or wars.
Two scenarios here:
Bearish (Higher Probability)
Idea: Wait for a Secondary Test or Lower High around the resistance/POI near 3,390–3,396
Entry: Short on rejection or bearish M5 structure break after tagging that area
SL: Above 3,400 (or 30-40 pips above ST candle wick)
TP1 = 3377 (gap close)
TP2 = 3360 (Daily Gap)
TP3 = 3338 (PDL retest)
🟩 Bullish (Only if invalidation happens)
Idea: If we break above 3400 clean and hold on retest, it means Phase D of Accumulation started instead.
Entry: Long on retest of 3400 as support
SL: Below 3400
TP: Trail it...
Stay reactive around 3,390–3,396 for short opportunity only if price shows signs of failure there.
By the time it took me to post this idea the price has already move up 100 pips.
Trade safely!!
Hanzo / Gold 15 Min ( Accurate Tactical Break Out Zones )🔥 Gold – 15 Min Scalping Analysis (Bearish Setup)
⚡️ Objective: Precision Breakout Execution
Time Frame: 15-Minute Warfare
Entry Mode: Only after verified breakout — no emotion, no gamble.
👌Bullish After Break : 3345
Price must break liquidity with high volume to confirm the move.
👌Bearish After Break : 3326
Price must break liquidity with high volume to confirm the move.
☄️ Hanzo Protocol: Dual-Direction Entry Intel
➕ Zone Activated: Strategic liquidity layer detected — mapped through refined supply/demand mechanics. Volatility now rising. This isn’t noise — this is bait for the untrained. We're not them.
🩸 Momentum Signature Detected:
Displacement candle confirms directional intent — AI pattern scan active.
— If upward: Bullish momentum burst.
— If downward: Aggressive bearish rejection.
🦸♂️ Tactical Note:
The kill shot only comes after the trap is exposed and volume betrays their position.
Iran tensions rise: a setup brewing for gold and oil Geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran might fuel safe-haven demand for gold.
A break above $3,403 might open the door for a test of the May high at $3,437. However, price action over the last two sessions potentially indicates that buyers are reluctant to drive spot prices above $3,400.
At the same time, analysts are suggesting that oil could climb toward $120 if Israel takes military action against Iran. “I don’t want to say it’s imminent, but it looks like something that could very well happen,” President Trump said during a White House event.
Meanwhile, cooler-than-expected US CPI and PPI prints have potentially strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve could begin cutting interest rates by September, with a second cut possibly following before year-end.
ELLIOT WAVEOANDA:XAUUSD 4 HOUR
**According to the Elliott Wave theory, the ongoing pattern appears to be a double correction. Wave 3 of {Y} has been completed, and Wave 4 is currently in progress. A potential buying opportunity may arise between the levels of 3360 and 3350. **
**However, if gold breaks below the 3350 level, further downside movement is expected, with the next support zone likely between 3315 and 3297. **
**Furthermore, if gold breaks the critical level of 3250, it may extend its decline toward the 3215–3197 range.**
XAUUSD Analysis – From Bullish Momentum to Target🔍 Overview:
Gold has officially broken its ascending trendline, signaling a shift in market structure from bullish to bearish. This trendline acted as dynamic support for days, but its breakdown has opened the doors to potential downside movement. We're now in a phase where lower highs and lower lows are forming — a classic bearish signal.
📌 Key Levels & Price Zones:
🔻 Trendline Breakdown
A strong upward trendline was broken, confirming that bullish momentum has weakened. The trendline break was followed by aggressive bearish candles, signaling that sellers are gaining strength.
🔄 SR Interchange Zone (~3,322 – 3,330)
This area once acted as strong support and has now flipped to resistance. It’s a key level to watch for rejections or false breakouts. As long as the price stays below it, the bias remains bearish.
🔽 Mini Support Zone (~3,345 – 3,350)
A weak support area that could be retested. If price fails to hold above it, sellers will likely take over again.
⚠️ Minor CHoCH (~3,290)
This level marks the short-term structure shift. A breakdown here will confirm continuation to the downside. A short opportunity might present itself below this zone.
🌀 Next Reversal Zone (~3,275 – 3,280)
A potential demand area. Watch how the price reacts — this is where bulls might step in temporarily for a bounce or consolidation.
🚨 Major CHoCH (~3,265)
This is a critical support level. If it breaks, the entire bullish structure from early June is invalidated, opening the door to deeper retracement.
📈 Forecast Path:
Based on the price projection:
Expect lower highs to form.
If bearish momentum continues, we could see a breakdown below Minor CHoCH, targeting the Next Reversal Zone.
A clean break below 3,265 would signal a major trend change, confirming bearish control.
📊 Trade Ideas:
🔻 Short-Term Bearish Scenario:
Look for price to reject the SR Interchange or Mini Support zones.
Entry: After confirmation below 3,330
Targets: 3,290 → 3,275 → 3,265
SL: Above 3,350
🔼 Bullish Bounce Scenario:
If price reaches 3,275 and forms bullish confirmation (engulfing candle, divergence), we might see a short-term reversal.
Entry: On bullish candle close from support zone
Target: Back to 3,322 or higher
📅 Upcoming Events to Watch:
There are several U.S. economic data releases coming this week (marked on the chart). These can create sharp moves in XAUUSD, so manage your risk wisely.
✅ Final Thoughts:
Gold is at a key turning point. The breakdown from the trendline is significant, and structure now favors sellers — unless bulls reclaim critical levels. Wait for confirmation before entering, and always trade with proper risk management.
📌 Follow for more clean chart breakdowns, updates, and trade setups!
GOLD
GOLD complete sell on lock zone
check previous post
Federal Reserve Interpretation of May CPI Data
Key CPI Figures (May 2025)
Headline CPI:
MoM: 0.1% (vs. 0.2% forecast, prior 0.2%).
YoY: 2.4% (vs. 2.5% forecast, prior 2.3%).
Core CPI (ex-food/energy):
MoM: 0.1% (vs. 0.3% forecast, prior 0.2%).
YoY: 2.8% (vs. 2.9% forecast).
Fed’s Likely Interpretation
Cooling Inflation Momentum:
The softer-than-expected MoM and core CPI prints suggest inflation is moderating, particularly in goods categories like gasoline (-2.6% MoM) and autos. Shelter inflation (3.9% YoY) also cooled slightly, a critical factor for the Fed.
Annual CPI (2.4%) remains above the Fed’s 2% target but shows progress from pandemic-era peaks.
Tariff Impact Delayed:
The data reflects limited immediate pass-through from Trump’s April tariffs, which are expected to raise prices by ~1.5% over time. The Fed will remain cautious, as tariff effects could materialize in late 2025, complicating the inflation trajectory.
Labor Market Resilience:
Despite softer inflation, unemployment held at 4.2% in May, and wage growth stayed elevated (3.9% YoY). This gives the Fed flexibility to prioritize inflation containment over premature easing.
Policy Implications:
Near-Term Hold: The Fed is almost certain to keep rates at 4.25–4.50% in June, aligning with its "higher for longer" stance.
Dovish Tilt for 2025: Markets now price a ~75% chance of a September cut (up from ~55% pre-CPI). The Fed may signal openness to easing if inflation continues trending toward 2% and tariff impacts remain muted.
Market Reactions
Bonds: 10-year Treasury yields to 4.12%, reflecting bets on future rate cuts.
Dollar: The DXY dipped to 98.50 but stabilized as traders weighed Fed caution against global risks.
Equities: Nasdaq and S&P 500 rallied on reduced stagflation fears.
What’s Next?
June 12 PCE Data: The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge will confirm whether disinflation is broadening.
Federal Reserve Interpretation of June 12 Economic Data
Key Data Points
PPI (Producer Price Index) MoM: 0.1% (vs. 0.2% forecast, prior -0.5%).
Core PPI (ex-food/energy) MoM: 0.1% (vs. 0.3% forecast, prior -0.4%).
Unemployment Claims: 248K (vs. 242K forecast, prior 247K).
Fed’s Likely Interpretation
1. Subdued Producer Inflation
Cooling Input Costs: Both headline and core PPI rose 0.1% MoM, below expectations, signaling muted producer-side inflation. This follows prior declines (-0.5% headline, -0.4% core), suggesting persistent disinflationary pressures in supply chains.
Implication: Weak PPI supports the Fed’s view that inflation is moderating, reducing urgency for rate hikes. However, the Fed will remain cautious about potential tariff-driven price spikes later in 2025.
2. Labor Market Softening
Rising Jobless Claims: Claims increased for the second straight week (248K vs. 242K forecast), aligning with May’s softer ADP and NFP reports. The 4-week average now sits at 243K, the highest since September 2023.
Implication: A cooling labor market supports arguments for rate cuts to avoid over-tightening, but the Fed will seek confirmation in future reports (e.g., June NFP).
3. Policy Outlook
September Rate Cut Odds: Markets now price a ~70% chance of a September cut (up from ~65% pre-data). The Fed is likely to hold rates steady in July but may signal openness to easing if disinflation broadens.
Balancing Risks: While PPI and claims data lean dovish, the Fed remains wary of premature easing given:
Sticky Services Inflation: CPI services ex-energy rose 4.1% YoY in May.
Tariff Uncertainty: Trump’s tariffs could add 1.5% to inflation by late 2025.
Market Reactions
Bonds: 10-year Treasury yields fell 3 bps to 4.09%, reflecting rate-cut bets.
DXY: Dollar index dipped to 98.30, pressured by dovish Fed expectations.
Conclusion
The Fed will view today’s data as reinforcing the case for rate cuts in 2025, but policymakers will likely wait Q2 GDP before committing. While PPI and jobless claims suggest easing inflation and labor momentum, the Fed’s cautious stance on tariffs and services inflation means a September cut remains the baseline scenario, contingent on sustained disinflation.
July Meeting: Likely a hold, but the Fed’s updated dot plot could hint at 2025 cuts.
Tariff Watch: Delayed price pressures from tariffs remain a wildcard, keeping the Fed data-dependent.
Summary
The Fed will view May’s CPI as encouraging but insufficient to justify imminent rate cuts. While inflation moderation supports a dovish pivot later in 2025, policymakers will demand more evidence of sustained disinflation and clarity on tariff impacts before easing.
#gold
THE KOG REPORT - NFPQuick one today as we haven't had much time to put together the report.
Instead, the red box levels are shared below and the extreme red boxes are on the chart.
We have key level 3365 which needs to break as shown and key level 3345 which needs to break downside.
RED BOX TARGETS
Break above 3365 for 3366, 337, 3385, 3390, 3406 and 3420 in extension of the move
Break below 3350 for 3345, 3336, 3329, 3320, 3310 and 3298 in extension of the move
As always, trade safe.
KOG