Hellena | GOLD (4H): SHORT to 38.2% Fibo lvl 3143.50.Dear colleagues, I expect a correction in the coming week. Wave “V” has started its development and now I think that wave ‘1’ of medium order is completing its development and I think that the correction in wave “2” will last until the area of 38.2% Fibonacci level 3143.50.
There are two possible ways to enter the position:
1) Market entry
2) Pending limit orders.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
XAUUSDG trade ideas
XAUUSD 1H CHART PATTERN Upon examining the gold price action on the 1-hour chart, it's evident that the market recently achieved a fresh high, reaching up to $3245. This upward move indicated strong bullish momentum at that point. However, shortly after hitting this level, the price experienced a noticeable correction. This retracement not only pulled the price lower but also suggested a potential shift in the market structure, indicating that bullish strength may be weakening.
Currently, all eyes are on the $3214 level, as it appears to be a key support-turned-resistance zone. If the price remains suppressed below this threshold and fails to regain momentum above it, it could confirm a bearish continuation pattern. Should this scenario play out, we can anticipate further downside movement in the short term.
The next possible support levels, or downside targets, to watch for in sequence are $3190, $3178, $3156, and eventually $3140. These levels may act as areas of interest for traders looking for potential bounces or further breakdowns, depending on overall market sentiment and price behaviour near each zone.
XAUUSD 30M CHART PATTERNThis chart is a trading setup for CFDs on Gold (XAU/USD) on a 30-minute timeframe, published on April 16, 2025. Here’s a breakdown of what the chart suggests:
Trade Setup Overview:
Current Price: Around 3,291.990.
Trade Type: Sell/Short Position.
Stop Loss: Around 3,298.648.
Take Profit Levels:
First TP: Near 3,266.833.
GOLD (XAU/USD) at ATH – Two Key Scenarios to WatchGold has reached ATH, and we're currently testing a critical resistance zone. Look at my previous published post, perfectly played out and we're just getting started.
📈 Scenario 1: If the 1H candle body breaks above resistance with a confirmed close, we’re likely to see a push toward the $3,300 level before a potential pullback toward $3100
📉 Scenario 2: If we fail to break resistance, a pullback toward the $3,100 zone is expected before a bounce back to $3,350.
Wait for a retest confirmation on the 1H candle body closure before taking any position.
Updates will be published!
XAUUSD - Liquidity Grab Before Pullback? | Key Zones MarkedGold (XAU/USD) is approaching a critical liquidity zone around the $3,330 level, which aligns with a strong Fibonacci extension area and previous structural highs. Price has shown an impressive recovery after hitting support below $3,000, triggering a bullish rally that reached our TP at $3,270 following a successful SL re-entry.
The price is currently tapping into a liquidity zone, with expectations of short-term rejection signals forming on the 1H time frame.
If we start to see 1H candle rejections or bearish divergence, we can anticipate a possible pullback towards the $3,140-$3,180 zone, which is a confluence of previous resistance turned support and a Fibonacci retracement level.
📌 Patience is key—wait for proper price action confirmation before entering shorts.
GOLD ( XAU/USD) likely to move up from here Take this with a grain of salt. I am no expert, and this is not financial advice.
Technical Analysis (TA):
As we look at the hourly (1hr) timeframe, we can see a strong upward movement followed by a temporary consolidation creating a bullish pennant pattern suggesting a trend continuation. A conservative target puts us at around $3,350 per troy ounce of gold, but we could go as high as $3,494.63 to be exact.
Fundamentals Analysis (FA):
Macroeconomic Uncertainty: I can go into great detail about what is happening, but I would be writing an essay the size of 10 pages, and I don't want to do that now, so here is a quick and simple overview:
Tarrif War between the United States of America and China (as well as other countries) could lead to economic slow downs as well as poor revenue's for companies.
Start-ups are dead. As of today, there has been an alarming rate of start-ups which has been failing and unable to secure funding, and yes I am aware start ups fail all the time and funding dries up, just at the current rate it is scary how many are actively failing where a year back they were alive and well with bright futures and investment potential, investors are running to safe havens such as GOLD to keep their funds safe.
Central banks are expected to pause or even cut rates, which is typically bullish for gold, as lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.
Geopolitical Tensions: War War War :(
How Momentum Divergence Reveals Hidden Market Strength and WeaknMost traders watch price action closely: candlesticks, moving averages, trendlines. But there’s a deeper, less obvious layer of information that often signals shifts in direction before price confirms it: momentum.
📌 Quick overview – what you'll learn:
What momentum divergence is (clearly explained)
How it helps predict potential trend shifts
Practical ways to spot and trade divergences
📈 Price vs Momentum: They're Not the Same!
Momentum doesn't simply track price direction. Instead, it measures the strength behind price movements.
Rising prices, falling momentum often signals upcoming bearish reversals.
Falling prices, rising momentum often hints at bullish reversals building beneath the surface.
These subtle divergences are powerful because they reveal hidden market shifts before everyone else notices them.
⚠️ How to Spot Momentum Divergence (Simple Steps):
Step-by-step:
- Find clear price swings:
Clearly defined highs/lows on your chart.
- Check momentum indicators (RSI, MACD, CCI, etc.):
Does the indicator agree or disagree with the price action?
- Spot divergence:
Bullish divergence: Price makes lower lows, indicator shows higher lows.
Bearish divergence: Price makes higher highs, indicator shows lower highs.
- Confirmation:
Always wait for price confirmation like a reversal candle or break of a trendline.
🔥 Why Momentum Divergence Works:
Divergence highlights hidden accumulation or distribution by smart money.
Helps you anticipate reversals before price confirms.
Filters out weak moves and helps you avoid fake breakouts.
📊 Real Example (XAUUSD – April 2025):
Recently in Gold:
Price was dropping steadily, reaching new lows.
Meanwhile, RSI showed clear higher lows – classic bullish divergence.
Result: Price exploded significantly shortly after momentum divergence appeared clearly.
🧠 Trading Tips to Remember:
Divergence signals are stronger near key support/resistance zones.
Use momentum divergence with your existing strategy for confirmation, not isolation.
Always define your risk clearly (set stops above/below recent highs/lows).
🚩 Common Pitfalls to Avoid:
Trading divergence without confirmation: always wait for the market to show its hand.
Ignoring the bigger picture: check higher timeframes for stronger signals.
Overtrading: not every divergence leads to a reversal; quality beats quantity.
🚀 Your Action Plan for Next Week:
Pick one momentum indicator and identify at least 3 divergences on your favorite assets.
Monitor how they play out.
Note down what works best in your trading journal.
💬 Question for you:
What’s your go-to momentum indicator when spotting divergence? RSI, MACD, CCI, or something else? Drop a comment below!
Happy trading!
TrendGo Team
RSI 101: Revealing the Special Characteristics of RSIWhy does RSI have support and resistance levels at 40 and 60?
Why does divergence happen between RSI and price?
What is RSI momentum?
All the characteristics of RSI (that I know) will be explained here.
Formula and Meaning
If you are using TradingView, you probably already know what RSI is and what "overbought" and "oversold" mean. So, I won’t repeat it here. Instead, I’ll dive deeper into the true nature of RSI, giving you a different perspective.
You can skip the mathematical formula of RSI, it’s already discussed everywhere online. Just remember this ratio table:
Here’s how I explain the table:
At RSI = 50, the average gain equals the average loss (I'll call this the buy/sell ratio). This is a balanced point. Buyers and sellers are equally strong.
At RSI ~ 60 (66.66), the buy/sell ratio = 2/1. Buyers are twice as strong as sellers.
At RSI ~ 40 (33.33), the buy/sell ratio = 1/2. Sellers are twice as strong as buyers.
At RSI = 80, the buy/sell ratio = 4/1. Buyers are four times stronger.
At RSI = 20, the buy/sell ratio = 1/4. Sellers are four times stronger.
The formula shows that when RSI reaches 80 or 20, the buyer or seller is extremely strong — about four times stronger — confirming a clear trend.
At these levels, some Trading strategies suggest placing a Sell or Buy based on the overbought/oversold idea.
But for me, that’s not the best way. The right approach is: when a trend is clearly formed, we should follow it.
I'll explain why right below.
Look at this chart showing RSI changes with the buy/sell ratio:
When RSI > 50:
When RSI < 50:
You can see that the higher RSI goes, the slower it climbs, but the high buy/sell ratio makes price move up faster.
Similarly, when RSI goes lower, it drops slower but price drops faster.
That’s why at overbought (RSI=80) or oversold (RSI=20) areas, you need to be careful. Even a small RSI moving can lead to big price changes, easily hitting your stop loss.
On the other hand, if you follow the trend and wait for RSI to pull back, you will trade safer and more profitably.
RSI Key Levels
Here are some special RSI levels I personally find useful when observing FX:XAUUSD :
(These levels are relative. They might vary with different timeframes or trading pairs. Check historical data to find the right ones for you. On bigger timeframes like M15 or above, the accuracy is better.)
RSI = 20
When RSI hits 20, sellers dominate. This confirms a trend reversal to bearish.
RSI = 80
When RSI hits 80, buyers dominate. This confirms a trend reversal to bullish.
RSI = 40
This is a sensitive level. Sellers start gaining the upper hand (sell/buy = 2/1).
If buyers lose 40, they lose their advantage.
So RSI >= 40 is "buyer territory". In an uptrend, RSI usually stays above 40.
RSI = 40 acts as support in an uptrend.
RSI = 60
Same idea. RSI <= 60 is "seller territory".
RSI = 60 acts as resistance in a downtrend.
40 and 60 are considered the key levels of RSI.
Now you guys know why RSI has support/resistance around 40/60!
RSI Range
As you know, RSI moves between 0 and 100.
Since RSI >= 40 is buyer territory, we can see the relationship between price and RSI:
When RSI stays above 40, price tends to move in an uptrend:
When RSI stays below 60, price tends to move in a downtrend:
When RSI stays between 40 and 60, buyers and sellers are balanced, and price moves sideways in a box:
When RSI is moving, It creates a RSI Range.
Whenever the trend switches between the three states — uptrend, sideways, and downtrend — a Range Shift is formed.
At first, RSI moves in 40-60 range, price moves sideways. A strong price move pushes RSI to 80. Later, RSI stays above 50, helping price grow strongly. When momentum fades, RSI returns to 40-60 and price moves sideways again.
Note:
RSI reflects Dow Theory by showing the stages of accumulation, growth, and distribution.
And as you see, when RSI touches key levels, the trend often pulls it back.
RSI Momentum
Price momentum means how fast price changes.RSI momentum represents the change in the strength between buying and selling forces.
When RSI > 50:
If price falls, RSI shows high momentum — RSI drops fast but price drops slowly.
If price rises, RSI shows low momentum — RSI rises slowly but price rises fast.
For example, at first RSI is above 50.
Price drops from (a) to (b) by 44 units, RSI drops from (Ra) to (Rb) by 25 units.
Later, RSI drops from (Rb) to (Rc) (also 25 units) but price drops from (b) to (c) by 73 units.
When RSI < 50:
If price falls, RSI has low momentum — RSI drops slowly but price falls fast.
If price rises, RSI has high momentum — RSI rises fast but price rises slowly.
RSI and Price Divergence
Divergence happens when price and RSI move in opposite directions:
Price goes up but RSI goes down, or vice versa.
Why does divergence happen?
In a strong downtrend, price forms a bottom at point (1), and RSI drops to level (r1).
When a price pullback happens, price pushes up to a peak at point (2), and RSI also bounces back to level (r2).
Because the downtrend is strong, after completing the pullback (1-2), price continues to make a lower bottom at point (3).
At this point, remember the behavior of RSI momentum when RSI is below 50:
It takes a large price drop (from 2 to 3) to cause a small RSI drop (from r2 to r3).
Meanwhile, even a small price increase (from 1 to 2) causes a large RSI rise (from r1 to r2).
Since the distance (1-2) is smaller than (2-3), but the RSI move (r1-r2) is bigger than (r2-r3), divergence is created.
Divergence shows that the current trend is very strong, not a complete signal of a trend reversal.
(I might share with you how to spot a complete RSI reversal signal in future posts.)
As shown in the example above, after forming bottom (5) and creating a bullish divergence between (3-5) and (r3-r5), price still kept dropping sharply while RSI kept rising.
In these areas, if you keep trying to catch a reversal just based on divergence, you will likely need to DCA or cut your losses many times.
That’s why the most important thing in trading is always to follow the trend.
RSI Exhaustion
RSI Exhaustion happens when RSI keeps getting rejected by a resistance or support zone and can’t break through.
After a strong downtrend, RSI recovers but stalls around the 5x zone.
It tries many times but fails, showing buying power is weakening.
Then the downtrend continues:
Exhaustion near high or low RSI levels creates stronger divergences than exhaustion in the middle range:
Double or triple tops/bottoms on RSI (M or W shapes) basically indicate RSI exhaustion.
RSI Can Identify Trend Strength
In an uptrend:
If RSI pulls back to a higher level before going up again, the trend is stronger.
The pullback should not fall too deep (below 40).
Example:
First rally: RSI drops to 60 before rising again → strong rally (273 units).
Second rally: RSI drops to 50 before rising again → weaker rally (94 units).
Same idea for a downtrend:
If RSI pullbacks to 50 then drops again, the downtrend is stronger than if it pullbacks to 60.
RSI Support and Resistance
Besides 40-60 acting as support/resistance, RSI also reacts to old tops and bottoms it created.
Why does this happen?
RSI is calculated from closing prices.
On a higher timeframe, the candle close price is a high/low or support/resistance price on lower timeframes.
When RSI moves in a trend on a higher timeframe, it maintains a buy/sell ratio, forcing lower timeframe RSI to oscillate within a range.
Example:
On H4, RSI stays above 40 → uptrend.
It makes H1 RSI move between 30-80.
Sharp RSI tops/bottoms react even stronger because they show strong buying/selling forces.
Summary
When looking at the price chart, we can see that price can rise or fall freely without any defined boundaries.
However, RSI operates differently: it always moves within a fixed range from 0 to 100.
During its movement, RSI forms specific patterns that reflect the behavior of price.
Because RSI has a clear boundary, identifying its characteristics and rules becomes easier compared to analyzing pure price action.
By studying RSI patterns, we can make better assumptions and predict future price trends with higher accuracy.
I have shared with you the core characteristics of RSI, summarized as follows:
Besides overbought (80) and oversold (20), RSI respects 40 and 60.
40 is support level in an uptrend. 60 is resistance level in a downtrend.
In an uptrend, RSI stays above 40.
In a downtrend, RSI stays below 60.
An RSI Range-Shift leads to a trend change.
RSI Divergence shows strong trends.
Double or triple tops/bottoms show RSI exhaustion → potential reversals.
The higher the RSI level, the slower it moves, but the faster the price rises.
The lower the RSI level, the slower it moves, but the faster the price falls.
A strong uptrend can be identified when RSI moves within a higher range or shows continuous bearish divergences.
A strong downtrend can be identified when RSI moves within a lower range or shows continuous bullish divergences.
RSI reacts to its old tops and bottoms.
Sharper RSI peaks show stronger selling.
Sharper RSI bottoms show stronger buying.
In the next parts, I’ll show you how to apply these RSI's Characteristics to trend analysis, multi-timeframe analysis, and trading strategies, that you might have never seen before.
I trade purely with RSI. Follow me for deep dives into RSI-based technical analysis and discussions!
GOLD NEXT MOVE (expecting a mild correction now)(11-04-2025)Go through the analysis carefully and do trade accordingly.
Anup 'BIAS for the day (11-04-2025)
Current price- 3232
"if Price stays below 3250, then next target is 3222, 3200, 3170 and 3130 and above that 3270 ".
-POSSIBILITY-1
Wait (as geopolitical situation are worsening )
-POSSIBILITY-2
Wait (as geopolitical situation are worsening)
Best of luck
Never risk more than 1% of principal to follow any position.
Support us by liking and sharing the post.
It is critical to grasp the entry point when stepping backYesterday, the technical aspect of gold opened in the Asian session and immediately ushered in a strong bullish pull-up. The European session broke through and stood above the 3300 integer mark and entered a strong shock consolidation. The US gold price fluctuated repeatedly and stabilized above the 3300 integer mark and ushered in an accelerated pull-up. Finally, the gold price broke through the 3320 mark in the early morning and continued to rise to around 3350 and closed strongly. The daily K-line closed with a shock break and a long positive, and the daily increase reached 120 US dollars. The overall technical form has completely entered the rhythm of bullish squeeze. At present, all technical aspects are overbought, and short-term technical indicators are distorted. The overall rise logic is greatly affected by the external risk aversion sentiment. The bullish momentum still exists, and the retracement continues to look for opportunities to go long. However, it is worth noting that Friday is Good Friday, and today's weekly close will lead to profit-taking in the market.
From the 4-hour analysis, today's lower support focuses on 3310-3305, and focuses on the important support of 3293-90. This position is also the watershed between the strength and weakness of the bulls and bears during the day. Be cautious about chasing more at high levels. I will prompt you with specific operating strategies during the session, so please pay attention in time.
Gold operation strategy: 1. Go long when gold falls back to 3310-3305, and add to long position when it falls back to 3288-93. The target is 3345-3350.
XAUUSD Volatility in Focus: Caution Advised for PullbackCurrently, I estimate that XAUUSD is nearing the end of wave iii of wave (v). I present two potential scenarios:
In the black label scenario, XAUUSD may continue its upward movement to complete wave iii, with a projected target in the 3,372–3,410 range.
However, under the red label scenario, there is a possibility of a short-term correction toward the 3,284–3,301 area before resuming the uptrend toward the same target zone.
Traders should closely monitor price action, as increased volatility is likely in the near term.
GOLD short-term analysis, buy setupFrom a macro perspective, the daily chart gold price has formed a lasting upward trend since the low of $2536, with the highest price at $3357.8, which is significantly higher than all major moving averages, indicating that the long-term bullish momentum is still strong. The MACD indicator golden cross pattern on the daily chart continues to develop, indicating that the long-term trend momentum is still upward.
This year, the upward trend cannot be changed. If there is a callback squat or sideways consolidation, it is a bullish opportunity; then once it continues to rise today, the retracement above 3315 is a buying opportunity. As for where the target is, the monthly chart is calculated to be around 3444, which is also the target of the next stage.
Gold has been crazy recently, and gold bulls have been rising all the way. Every day when I wake up and open it in the past two days, it is a new high. The strength of gold bulls is very strong.
The 1-hour moving average of gold continues to form a golden cross with upward bullish divergence. It is difficult for the strong gold bulls to have a big correction. After gold began to fall back and fluctuate near 3315 yesterday, the gold US market continued to break upward directly, so the short-term 3315 of gold formed support again, and gold fell back to 3315 and continued to buy on dips.
Before there are no particularly obvious signs of a sharp decline, buying on dips has become our only choice, and it is also the best and safest choice! While looking at the bulls, pay attention to the opportunity to fall back. Unless the strength is suddenly strong at that time, don't easily chase the high position. Wait patiently for the opportunity to fall back. How long can the gold bulls be crazy? Don’t guess the top when it goes up, no one knows this. Since gold is so crazy, all we have to do is follow it. It is difficult for gold to fall sharply before there is a large-scale short signal!
Key points:
First support: 3315, second support: 3294, third support: 3246
First resistance: 3360, second resistance: 3377, third resistance: 3386
Operation ideas:
Buy: 3317-3320, SL: 3308, TP: 3340-3350;
Sell: 3387-3390, SL: 3398, TP: 3370-3360;
XAU/USD - Potential TargetsDear Fellow Traders,
How I see it:
Gold has the potential for a small correction
My "BULLISH" targets in case "Confluence of Support" holds -
* TP1; TP2 & TP3 as indicated.
My "BEARISH" target in case "Confluence of Support" are breached -
* TP1 as indicated.
Feel free to ask if anything is unclear.
Thank you for taking the time to study my analysis.
GOLD(XAUUSD) -Weekly Forecast,Technical Analysis & Trading IdeasMidterm forecast:
2772.38 is a major support, while this level is not broken, the Midterm wave will be uptrend.
We will close our open trades, if the Midterm level 2772.38 is broken.
OANDA:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD
Technical analysis:
A peak is formed in daily chart at 3167.60 on 04/03/2025, so more losses to support(s) 3000.00, 2955.00, 2879.11 and minimum to Major Support (2772.38) is expected.
Take Profits:
2833.00
2879.11
2955.00
3000.00
3057.40
3100.00
3167.60
3200.00
__________________________________________________________________
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Now, it's your turn!
Be sure to leave a comment; let us know how you see this opportunity and forecast.
Have a successful week,
ForecastCity Support Team
GOLD Bull Market Price Target is 7 500 USD accumulate on dips🏆 Gold Market Long-Term Update 12/24 months
📊 Technical Outlook Update
🏆 Bull Market Overview
▪️2weeks/candle price chart
▪️Gold Bull market in progress
▪️1976/1979 650% gains - Bull Market 1
▪️1999/2012 650% gains - Bull Market 2
▪️2016/2027 650% gains- Bull Market 3
▪️Price Target BULLS 7500 USD
▪️650% gains off the lows
▪️will hit in 2026/2027
⭐️Recommended strategy
▪️BUY/HOLD accumulate dips
▪️BUY/HOLD physical gold
▪️BUY/HOLD GLD/GDX
Trade Summary: XAU Gold Buy Setup 17/04/2025Trade Summary: XAU Gold Buy Setup
Entry Price: $3220
Target: $3590
Stop Loss: $3150
Time: 05:18 PM
Timeframe: 4-Hour (H4)
Technical Setup: Price is forming a Higher High structure with a strong retracement, followed by another bullish push—suggesting potential trend continuation.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Trading involves risk, and you should do your own analysis or consult with a financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
GOLD Analysis: Will buyers push toward 3,230?OANDA:XAUUSD continues to trade within a clearly defined ascending channel, with price action consistently respecting both upper and lower boundaries. The recent price action suggests buyers are currently in control, indicating the potential for continued upside.
Given the strength of the current bullish momentum, there is a strong likelihood that price may break above the key resistance zone. If that happens, it could come back to retest the level as support before continuing higher. A successful retest would reinforce the bullish structure and open the door for a potential move toward the 3,230 target, which aligns with the channel’s upper boundary.
However, if price fails to break above the resistance zone, it could signal weakening bullish momentum and open the door for a deeper pullback toward the lower boundary of the ascending channel.
Always confirm your setups and manage your risk accordingly.
Best of luck!