XAUUSD Analysis – From Bullish Momentum to Target🔍 Overview:
Gold has officially broken its ascending trendline, signaling a shift in market structure from bullish to bearish. This trendline acted as dynamic support for days, but its breakdown has opened the doors to potential downside movement. We're now in a phase where lower highs and lower lows are forming — a classic bearish signal.
📌 Key Levels & Price Zones:
🔻 Trendline Breakdown
A strong upward trendline was broken, confirming that bullish momentum has weakened. The trendline break was followed by aggressive bearish candles, signaling that sellers are gaining strength.
🔄 SR Interchange Zone (~3,322 – 3,330)
This area once acted as strong support and has now flipped to resistance. It’s a key level to watch for rejections or false breakouts. As long as the price stays below it, the bias remains bearish.
🔽 Mini Support Zone (~3,345 – 3,350)
A weak support area that could be retested. If price fails to hold above it, sellers will likely take over again.
⚠️ Minor CHoCH (~3,290)
This level marks the short-term structure shift. A breakdown here will confirm continuation to the downside. A short opportunity might present itself below this zone.
🌀 Next Reversal Zone (~3,275 – 3,280)
A potential demand area. Watch how the price reacts — this is where bulls might step in temporarily for a bounce or consolidation.
🚨 Major CHoCH (~3,265)
This is a critical support level. If it breaks, the entire bullish structure from early June is invalidated, opening the door to deeper retracement.
📈 Forecast Path:
Based on the price projection:
Expect lower highs to form.
If bearish momentum continues, we could see a breakdown below Minor CHoCH, targeting the Next Reversal Zone.
A clean break below 3,265 would signal a major trend change, confirming bearish control.
📊 Trade Ideas:
🔻 Short-Term Bearish Scenario:
Look for price to reject the SR Interchange or Mini Support zones.
Entry: After confirmation below 3,330
Targets: 3,290 → 3,275 → 3,265
SL: Above 3,350
🔼 Bullish Bounce Scenario:
If price reaches 3,275 and forms bullish confirmation (engulfing candle, divergence), we might see a short-term reversal.
Entry: On bullish candle close from support zone
Target: Back to 3,322 or higher
📅 Upcoming Events to Watch:
There are several U.S. economic data releases coming this week (marked on the chart). These can create sharp moves in XAUUSD, so manage your risk wisely.
✅ Final Thoughts:
Gold is at a key turning point. The breakdown from the trendline is significant, and structure now favors sellers — unless bulls reclaim critical levels. Wait for confirmation before entering, and always trade with proper risk management.
📌 Follow for more clean chart breakdowns, updates, and trade setups!
