Bullish bounce off major support?XAU/USD has bounced off the support level which is an overlap support and could rise from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 3,265.39
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level.
Stop loss: 3,121.15
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 145% Fibonacci extension.
Take profit: 3,344.54
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
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XAUUSDG trade ideas
GOLD DAILY CHART ROUTE MAPHey Everyone,
Following up on our previous Goldturn channel post – the recent price action has played out exactly as anticipated. We saw a clean rejection at the channel top around 3433, with price failing to lock above and confirming that resistance is still very much in control at the range ceiling.
This rejection was perfect and it led to a decisive move back down into the 3272 Goldturn support. This level is now acting as a critical pivot. From here, we’re watching closely for one of two outcomes:
1. Bounce Scenario: If price holds and we see a supportive reaction from 3272, particularly with no EMA5 cross and lock confirmation, we will look for long opportunities to slowly ascend the channel again. Expect a grind with testing of in-between levels as structure develops.
2. Breakdown Scenario: If 3272 fails to hold, we expect the next key test to occur at the channel’s midline – a level that has acted as support. A further breakdown would likely target 3106, our next Goldturn support zone, for potential reversal setups.
This price action continues to validate the effectiveness of the Goldturn channel structure keeping us grounded and responsive rather than reactive.
We remain focused on level to level trading, guided by the channel and supported by EMA5 confirmations for directional analysis.
Key Levels to Watch:
Resistance: 3433
Support: 3272 (current test), 3106 (if breakdown continues)
Stay patient and let price confirm. The best trades continue to come from structure respecting reactions, not from chasing.
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
Gold in a Shifting Macro Landscape Fundamentals First: Why is Gold Falling While DXY is Too?
Normally, gold and the U.S. dollar share an inverse relationship (which means, when DXY weakens, gold rises). But recently, this correlation has broken down, and that divergence is a loud macro signal.
What’s Happening:
Trade Deal Optimism:
Headlines suggest the U.S. is nearing a resolution with China and other partners. With reduced geopolitical tension, investors are reallocating from safe-haven assets like gold into risk-on trades like equities and crypto.
Iran-Israel Ceasefire:
The temporary cooling of conflict has revived risk appetite. Traders are rotating out of war hedges (like gold and oil) and into tech, growth, and EM plays.
Real Yields Still Elevated:
Despite a softening Fed narrative, U.S. real yields remain positive, keeping pressure on non-yielding assets like gold. The fact that gold couldn't rally even as the 10-year note softened post-Moody's downgrade could be telling.
My Perspective:
This is the first clear signal in months that geopolitical hedging may have peaked. When gold decouples from its safe-haven narrative despite macro uncertainty, that often precedes a structural rotation phase, especially if institutional flows favor equities.
Technical Breakdown
Gold has broken below its 50-day SMA at $3,322 and is trading in the lower third of its 3-month range. While the daily candles show increasing selling pressure, especially on lower highs (a sign of weakening bullish momentum)
RSI : Falling toward 40, with no bullish divergence yet.
Support Level : $3,176: Previous swing low
Resistance Level : $3,444: previous swing high
What This Move Might Be Telling Us
When gold sells off on dollar weakness and geopolitical calm, the market isn’t just relaxing. It is rotating. The de-grossing of gold-heavy hedges: Some hedge funds may be taking profit on gold-heavy exposure from Q1’s rally.
Rise of risk appetite despite cracks: Markets are forward-pricing trade peace and earnings resilience, possibly too early. Gold might not be in trouble, but it’s on the bench. Unless something reignites fear (e.g., Fed policy mistake, Middle East flashpoint, or economic shock), capital may stay elsewhere.
XAUUSD – Clear Sideways Movement in a Narrow Price ChannelXAUUSD is moving within a parallel price channel, fluctuating between the 3,320–3,345 zone. Both the EMA 34 and EMA 89 are running flat and close together, indicating a balanced market with no strong momentum in either direction.
Recent highs and lows have formed within a narrow range, reflecting indecision from both buyers and sellers. The latest bounce also stalled at the channel resistance, lacking the strength to break out.
As long as price remains below 3,345 and above 3,320, the sideways trend is likely to continue. During this phase, a range-trading strategy is preferred – selling near the top, buying near the bottom – while waiting for a clear breakout to determine the next directional move.
XAU/USD Struggles Below 3366, Bearish Pressure Remains ActiveXAU/USD Tests Supply Zone – Watching 3365 for Bullish Continuation
Gold is climbing amid global uncertainty and U.S. tariff concerns ahead of the July 9 deadline. But strong resistance is still in play.
The price is now testing the 1H–2H supply zone and has pushed past the pivot (3347–3352). A clear 4H close above 3365 will confirm bullish continuation.
Until then, upside remains capped. If price fails to sustain above 3365, a drop back toward 3328 and 3295 is likely.
Key Levels:
Resistance: 3352 – 3365 – 3400
Support: 3328 – 3295 – 3285
Pivot Zone: 3347–3352
Gold (XAUUSD) Signals Bullish Trend ResumptionGold (XAUUSD) has exhibited a robust rally since its low on May 15, 2025. The metal formed a five-swing motive sequence that culminated in wave 1 at 3452.50 on June 16, 2025. This five-swing structure, characteristic of an impulsive Elliott Wave pattern, signals potential for further upside. The subsequent pullback in wave 2 appears to have completed at 3246.15, as illustrated in the accompanying 1-hour chart. The internal structure of wave 2 unfolded as a double-three Elliott Wave corrective pattern. Specifically, from the wave 1 peak, wave ((w)) declined to 3340.18. A corrective rally in wave ((x)) followed to 3398.35. The final leg, wave ((y)), concluded at 3246.15, marking the completion of wave 2 in the higher-degree structure.
Gold has since resumed its upward trajectory in wave 3. However, to confirm the bullish outlook and eliminate the possibility of a double correction, the price must decisively break above the wave 1 high at 3452.50. From the wave 2 low, wave (i) advanced to 3296.85. A shallow pullback in wave (ii) followed to 3274.41. Wave (iii) then propelled the metal to 3358.02. Based on the current structure, gold is expected to rally further in wave (v) to complete wave ((i)). Subsequently, a corrective pullback in wave ((ii)), likely unfolding in a 3, 7, or 11-swing structure, is anticipated from the June 30 low before the metal resumes its upward trend. In the near term, as long as the pivot low at 3246.15 remains intact, gold is poised to extend higher, supported by the impulsive momentum of the ongoing wave 3.
GOLD - at CUT n REVERSE Area? holds or not??#GOLD.. market palced around 3317 18 as day low so far but hour closed above 3323 that was our area.
so keep close our region that is around 3320 to 3323
that is our ultimate region for now and if market hold it in that case we can expect bounce again
NOTE: below 3320 we will go for cut n reverse on confirmation.
good luck
trade wisely
Maintain range fluctuations during the day?Gold has maintained a volatile pattern recently. As the US market is closed today for Independence Day, the market volatility is expected to be limited, but the volatile market will continue, but the volatility range may change. Yesterday's gold price fell mainly due to the news, and this decline usually does not last too long. From a technical point of view, gold prices are supported near 3310-3300, which is the key support level today. It is worth noting that on Wednesday, gold prices were under pressure in the 3340-3350 area, and on Thursday, prices formed support in this range, indicating that the area is forming a top-bottom conversion. Therefore, 3340-3350 has become an important pressure level today. It is expected to fluctuate in the 3300-3340/3350 range during the day. The impact of news on gold prices is usually short-term. When the fundamentals and technical directions are consistent, price fluctuations will be more obvious. When the two are inconsistent, price fluctuations will weaken, but will not change the technical trend. The rebound pattern established at the beginning of the week is still valid. After a short-term shock, gold prices are expected to re-stand above 3345 and continue to maintain the rebound trend.
GOLD 4H CHART ROUTE MAP UPDATE & TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEKHey Everyone,
Please see our updated 4h chart levels and targets for the coming week.
We are seeing price play between two weighted levels with a gap above at 3301 and a gap below at 3242. We will need to see ema5 cross and lock on either weighted level to determine the next range.
We will see levels tested side by side until one of the weighted levels break and lock to confirm direction for the next range.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 20 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
The swing range give bigger bounces then our weighted levels that's the difference between weighted levels and swing ranges.
BULLISH TARGET
3301
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3301 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGETS
3370
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3370 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3429
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3429 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3499
BEARISH TARGETS
3242
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3242 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
3171
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3171 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
3089
3171
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3171 WILL OPEN THE SECONDARY SWING RANGE
3089
3001
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
GOLD BROKEN WEDGE|LONG|
✅GOLD was trading in an
Opening wedge pattern and
Now we are seeing a bullish
Breakout so we are bullish
Biased and we will be expecting
A further bullish move up
LONG🚀
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
I win when I don't postLets see how it goes.
The consolidation that occurred because of the U.S holiday has led to giving buyers more power.
If not, I have a Stop Loss in place. We either win or we lose.
5th wave analysis + Market Structure support zone + Heads & shoulder(4H Timeframe) - we are currently in the right shoulder.
Risk what you can afford to lose
Check the trend Given the price behavior within the current resistance range, possible scenarios have been identified. It is expected that after some fluctuation within the current resistance range, a trend change will take place and we will witness the beginning of a downtrend. With consolidation above the resistance range, an uptrend will be likely.
Gold accumulates and moves above 3350⭐️GOLDEN INFORMATION:
Gold prices declined by 0.80% on Thursday after a robust US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report boosted the US Dollar, dampening expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut at the upcoming July meeting. At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading at $3,332, after reaching an intraday high of $3,365.
June’s employment data significantly outperformed forecasts and even surpassed May’s figures, reinforcing the resilience of the US labor market. Notably, the Unemployment Rate edged closer to the 4% mark, underscoring continued labor market strength. The upbeat report casts doubt on Wednesday’s softer ADP private-sector jobs data, which had shown a 33,000 drop in hiring.
⭐️Personal comments NOVA:
Gold price accumulates and recovers around 3350. Friday has no important news and bank holiday in US session, short-term recovery
⭐️SET UP GOLD PRICE:
🔥SELL GOLD zone: 3365- 3367 SL 3372
TP1: $3355
TP2: $3342
TP3: $3330
🔥BUY GOLD zone: $3311-$3313 SL $3306
TP1: $3325
TP2: $3338
TP3: $3350
⭐️Technical analysis:
Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable BUY order.
⭐️NOTE:
Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well
- take the number of lots that match your capital
- Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account
- Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
#XAU/USD SELL TRADE SETUP [SHORT]In this analysis we're focusing on 2H timeframe. As we know, Gold is moving in a strong bearish trend. The best selling zone is 3295 - 3305 key levels area. If gold encounters rejection from this zone, we can anticipate a potential decline in price towards its targeted levels.
Target 1:3260
Target 2:3250
Target 3:3240
Wait for a retracement to sell with strong confirmation and proper risk management.
#GOLD 2H Technical Analysis Expected Move.
7/4: Trade Within the 3313–3346 RangeGood morning, everyone!
Yesterday’s intraday trades delivered solid profits. Since the U.S. market will be closed today, news-driven volatility is expected to be limited. Therefore, today’s trading focus will primarily revolve around technical setups.
Current structure:
Key support: 3321–3316
Immediate resistance: 3337–3342, followed by 3360
If support holds and resistance breaks, a potential inverse head-and-shoulders pattern may form on the 4H chart, with the next target near 3380
If support breaks, focus shifts to the 3303–3289 support zone
Given the likelihood of range-bound price action today, the suggested intraday range is 3313–3346, with a preference for selling near resistance and buying near support.
If an upside breakout occurs, consider using the MA20 on the 30-minute chart as a guide for pullback entries.
June Nonfarm Data: Gold PlungesThe US June nonfarm payrolls data is out: 147,000 jobs were added, exceeding the expected 106,000 and the previous 139,000, with slight upward revisions to the prior two months’ figures. The unemployment rate dipped from 4.2% to 4.1%, beating the forecast of 4.3%. While the US economy slows, the job market remains robust. 🌟
Post-data release, market bets on a July rate cut have evaporated, with the probability of a September cut dropping to around 75%. US stock futures extended gains, Treasury yields rose across the board, the US Dollar Index surged, and gold plunged nearly $40 in a short squeeze—signaling an unexpected major bearish hit to gold. Weng Fuhao advises trading with the trend, focusing on shorting on rebounds. 😲
Gold, jolted by the nonfarm data, slid sharply in the short term before a minor rebound, with bearish signals across all timeframes. The data triggered an immediate breakdown, shifting the short-term trend to downward: on the 3-hour chart, moving averages formed a death cross, MACD showed a death cross with expanding volume, and gold prices fell below the Bollinger Band lower track, confirming a clear bearish momentum. 📉
🚀 Sell@3355 - 3345
🚀 TP 3335 - 3325 - 3315
Accurate signals are updated every day 📈 If you encounter any problems during trading, these signals can serve as your reliable guide 🧭 Feel free to refer to them! I sincerely hope they'll be of great help to you 🌟 👇
Inside My Gold Mind: Weekend Trade Log📌 Market Context / Bias
The majority of bullish price action on VELOCITY:GOLD occurred early in the week — specifically between Monday and Tuesday. From midweek through Friday, the market entered a period of consolidation, showing signs of compression.
Interestingly, despite positive economic data that favoured the USD, GOLD remained steady and resilient. This suggests underlying bullish pressure and potential accumulation.
My current bias is bullish going into the new week — with expectations of a price expansion to the upside.
🔍 Higher Timeframe Analysis
Weekly Candle: Shows early bullish expansion followed by consolidation — classic sign of absorption or reaccumulation.
Draw on Liquidity: Equal highs remain above, acting as a magnet for price.
FVGs: Price traded into a daily FVG earlier in the week and closed above it.
Order Block: Price respected a previous Bullish Order Block during Thursday’s retracement, reinforcing possible support.
🧩 Lower Timeframe Confluence
1H–4H: Price is forming relatively equal highs above the current range — potential liquidity targets.
Intraday Structure: No major shift to bearish order flow was confirmed; compression suggests a possible continuation move once expansion begins.
🧠 Fundamental Insight
Despite hawkish or strong USD fundamentals, GOLD held its ground. This divergence often precedes a strong move — likely driven by risk sentiment, upcoming Fed commentary, or global macro drivers.
🧠 Trade Plan Preview
Stay tuned for my daily updates where I’ll share:
My bias for the day
Market structure breakdown
Intraday trade plan (entry, targets, and session model)
⚠️ Reminder:
Trade with due diligence. This is not financial advice. Always align entries with your personal model and preferred session.
Thanks for your support!
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⚠️ Disclaimer
This content is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice.
All trading involves risk. You are solely responsible for your own decisions, so always conduct proper research and due diligence before taking any trades.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trade responsibly.
May your final trades of the week be precise and profitable.
XAUUSD - Trading Plan 4-Hour Analysis and ProjectionThis 4-hour candlestick chart of Gold against the US Dollar highlights key Wyckoff market phases and technical levels that frame the current market structure. The analysis identifies significant points including the Buying Climax (BC), Upthrust (UT), Second Test (ST), and Automatic Reaction (AR), which mark essential phases of accumulation and distribution.
Multiple Dow swing counts (Dow-1, Dow-2, Dow-3) are annotated with various colors, illustrating the market’s internal structure and momentum shifts. The chart shows a failed upthrust after distribution, signaling a likely bearish pressure following the attempt to push prices higher.
The current price action indicates a potential retracement to the support zone near the Automatic Reaction level, followed by possible continuation up to recent highs. The plan suggests watching for a minor pullback around area A, after which a bullish move is expected to resume, targeting higher resistance levels as indicated by the projected price movement arrows.
This trading plan emphasizes careful observation of price reactions around key support and resistance levels derived from Wyckoff methodology phases, aiming to capture potential bullish continuation or prepare for bearish scenarios if support fails.
==============
Dow Theory & Wyckoff
GOLD BEARS ARE STRONG HERE|SHORT
GOLD SIGNAL
Trade Direction: short
Entry Level: 3,341.95
Target Level: 3,259.01
Stop Loss: 3,396.95
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 12h
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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Gold Holds Above 3342 Ahead of Key U.S Data –Bullish Bias IntactGold Rises as Market Awaits Key U.S. Economic Data
Gold prices are pushing higher as investors position ahead of today’s major U.S. economic releases, including NFP and unemployment figures. Expectations of weaker data are supporting bullish sentiment.
Technical Outlook (XAU/USD):
Gold maintains a bullish structure as long as it trades above 3,342.
→ A push toward 3,365 is likely
→ A 1H close above 3,365 would open the path toward 3,375
However, if price closes below 3,342 on the 1H chart, bearish momentum may build, targeting 3,331 and 3,320
Key Levels:
• Resistance: 3,365 / 3,375 / 3,390
• Support: 3,341 / 3,331 / 3,320