Where to next with XAUUSD (GOLD) ?FX:XAUUSD
Monthly
So the big question is where is GOLD going next?! As shown on the Monthly chart GOLD has been extremely bullish throughout 2023/2024. My outlooks is mixed with current PA but mostly LONG GOLD, I can't see any real reason to short XAUUSD especially looking at this Monthly chart as we have dynamic support from the EMA's, strong bullish candles and consistent Higher highs however thorough analysis of the lower time frames is needed before any conclusions are met.
Weekly
Looking at the Weekly chart and candle close I would expect price to potentially pull back the slightest into structure to continue with its lovely trend of higher lows and higher highs. as demonstrated with arrow. I see this only happening with a breach & close below last weeks support at 2,708.62 along with LH and LL off structure (AOI) which will be shown on other charts.
Daily
Daily charts begin to decipher potential next moves as we have massive bearish engulfing nearly taking out the 2 before it. As shown Fridays price closed at an AOI which was a very significant level in the past weeks holding as strong resistance then support which took price much higher but as we can see the daily candle spiked through this level but did not close along with 10 EMA close dynamic support however the last daily candle especially closing below this AOI tells me we could definitely take the move lower if there is a bearish 4hr close somewhere around market open.
If price goes bearish and breaks both structure levels AOI then I see a deeper retracement into previous structure highs as shown below
4hr + Entry
4hr makes things clearer as explained before I wouldn't be making any moves until either a few 4hr closes at the beginning of market open or a daily close bullish or bearish, this is because we have EMA crossover to the downside and 50 EMA resistance but these can all be breached to the upside based on how gold has been moving and a close above 2,741.50 (4hr or daily) as shown with arrow heading to the upside.
the other option is price continues short term bearish based on ema confluence and PA along with structure resistance as shown after bullish pullback which failed and was engulfed. looking to the left price has already gone short from this AOI and if it does but doesn't reverse from the lower grey box AOI it will fall into Previous Structure highs as outlined.
Possible entries
I favour these in order. ;)
