GOLD: Still in breakout, first down closing day!Hello everyone and welcome back to my channel, I don't share very often, also because I try to put many informations and details in what I describe.
First of all, as always, this is not a trade recommendation, neither a forecasting to know what the market is going to do or which direction is going to take.
My job, as a trader, is taking best trade setups, regardless the direction and what other people think. Guessing is 50/50, taking best trade setup is 90/10 😉
Gold.. is apparently in an interesting situation and today, is the only market I'm going to follow, and potentially be looking for a setup after major red news release at 10am NYT.
It can actually setup either for a short scenario, going to complete the 3 days pump and dump from Monday, or keep going higher considering the overall strong uptrend. But let's analyse both the scenarios, having a deeper look.
Little premise, January was a trending month, so I don't expect crazy shorts all in during a couple of days...
Previous week, beginning of the month, the market kept pushing higher, placing a little lower low on Thursday, stops eventually are placed below that level and in the future can be a level where the market can retest (stopping everybody still holding long positions).
Monday, the market broke through the weekly high, closing in breakout (This is what I consider a pump day)
Tuesday, Asian session pushed higher, placing the "all time high" and strongly reversing back inside the range of Monday, closing eventually as a first red day.
Today, Wednesday, the market is consolidating into the Tuesday's LOD, and as well the weekly breakout level, that's why this market can be pretty tricky and is important to identify the right setup.
SHORT SCENARIO
As I previously said, this can be a pump and dump in 3 days, and the first red day, up high into the "all time high", can be the beginning of a short move.
Obviously this market can blow off with news at 10am (look picture)
or it can start the retest of the current weekly high, consolidating up high for better filling and stronger market for a short move during the upcoming days ( we still have Thursday and Friday)
LONG SCENARIO
But very important, the market is still trending higher, Tuesday place a higher high and the consolidation down low, above the last weekly level, can be preparing for a bullish major move, today, and/or during the next days.
So.. how will I take advantage of it?
The days is keep going, news are on schedule, what I will do is:
1. Waiting for news to be released
2. After the news:
- Is the market setting up for a long trade? (buy low opportunity), then I will be targeting the current HOW
- Is the market setting up for a short trade? (sell high opportunity), then I will be targeting the current LOW and if the market keep blowing off, I would be willing to target as well the Thursday's low.
During the NY session I will be updating this post :)
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Thanks and have a good trading day!
Gianni
