GOLD What Next? SELL!
My dear friends,
Please, find my technical outlook for GOLD below:
The price is coiling around a solid key level - 3263.7
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Pivot Points Low anticipates a potential price reversal.
Super trend shows a clear sell, giving a perfect indicators' convergence.
Goal - 3249.1
Safe Stop Loss - 3271.6
About Used Indicators:
The pivot point itself is simply the average of the high, low and closing prices from the previous trading day.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
XAUUSDG trade ideas
Hanzo : Gold15m : Reversal Zone / Next Move is Confirmed🆚 Gold – Hanzo’s Strike Setup
🔥 Timeframe: 15-Minute (15M)
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💯 Main Focus: Bearish After Retest at 3354
We are watching this zone closely.
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👌 Market Signs (15M TF):
• Liquidity Grab + CHoCH at 3350
• Liquidity Grab + CHoCH at 3400
• Strong Rejections seen at:
➗ 3325 – Major support / Key level x5 Retest
➗ 3360 – Proven resistance
Gold Analysis: China - U.S Tariffs Talks and NFP ImpactGold Analysis: China - U.S Tariffs Talks and NFP Impact
Earlier today, China's Ministry of Commerce said it signaled a possible easing of tensions in the US-China trade war. Talks are still ongoing and this is creating a softer environment for gold to cool off from its strength.
On the other hand, today we also have the NFP data and, in relation to the data, the market is expected to anticipate a possible rate cut by the FED during the upcoming meeting, as well as new comments regarding their upcoming decisions.
This could be a strong reason why the GOLD continues to lose its bullish momentum.
However, do not forget that it moves up and down in a strange way most of the time. The current situation is bearish and nothing has changed so far. Even if the NFP data will be in line or less than expectations, I do not think that GOLD should rise for this reason. This is gold, it moves when you least expect it to happen
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
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Learn KEY PRINCIPLES of Technical Analysis in Gold Forex Trading
In the today's article, we will discuss the absolute basics of trading - 3 key principles of technical analysis in Forex & Gold Trading.
1️⃣History Repeats
History tends to repeat itself in the Forex market.
Certain trends are cyclical and may reemerge in a predictable manner, certain key levels are respected again and again over time.
Take a look at the example:
Silver perfectly respected a historical horizontal resistance in 2011 that was respected in 1980 already. Moreover, the price action before and after the tests of the underlined zone were absolutely identical.
2️⃣Priced In
All relevant information about a currency pair: economical and political events, rumors, and facts; is already reflected in a price.
When the FED increased the rate 26th of July by 25 bp, EURUSD bounced instead of falling. Before the rate hike, the market was going down on EXPECTATIONS of a rate hike. The release of the news was already price in.
3️⃣Pattern DO Work
Some specific price models can be applied for predicting the future price movements.
Technicians strongly believe that certain formations - being applied and interpreted properly, can give the edge on the market.
Depending on the trading style, different categories of patterns exist: harmonic patterns, price action patterns, wave patterns, candlestick patterns...
Above, I have listed various price action patterns that are applied by many traders and investors as the main tool for analyzing the financial markets.
If you believe in these 3 principles, you are an inborn technician!
Study technical analysis and learn to apply these principles to make money in trading.
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Gold is expected to fall below 3300, continue to short gold!Fundamentals:
1. Pay attention to whether the geopolitical conflicts escalate, including the situation between India and Pakistan, Russia and Ukraine, and the situation between the United States and Iran, etc.
Technical aspects:
Although the gold price gradually rebounded after hitting 3320 points, the current rebound momentum is relatively weak. The gold price has turned from strong to weak, and the short-term "M"-shaped top structure formed by 3435 points and 3414 points above has suppressed the upward space of the gold price. Therefore, we still focus on shorting gold after the rebound. First, we focus on the resistance area of 3355-3365 points above. If the gold price rebound fails to successfully break through this area, the gold price will fall again and is expected to continue to fall to around 3280 points.
Trading strategy:
Consider shorting gold after gold rebounds to the 3355-3365 area, target price: 3340
GOLD/USD showing short-term corrections during the downtrendPrice Action Overview
Current Price: $3,389.030
Change: -47.536 (-1.38%) at the time of the snapshot.
Recent High: Around $3,453
Support Levels:
$3,370.793
$3,236.478
$3,201.685
Resistance Levels:
$3,393.756
$3,453.443
Technical Indicators & Patterns
Price Zones:
A red shaded area near the top indicating a strong resistance zone.
Multiple green shaded boxes below suggesting prior demand zones (support).
Trade Markers:
"B" = Buy signals (e.g., on May 3–4, where a rally followed)
"R" = Resistance/reversal points
"T" = Possibly a target or technical level
Volume Spikes:
Notable spike on April 23 (2.619M) and another smaller one around April 30 (568.623K).
Price Movements:
Recent Rally: A sharp upward movement from early May, rising from support near $3,200 to resistance at ~$3,450.
Corrections: Several pullbacks marked (-0.80%, -0.95%, etc.), showing short-term corrections during the downtrend and consolidation phases.
Percentage Gains/Losses:
Ranges from minor gains (0.67% to 1.19%) to losses (e.g., -0.95%) across various candles, highlighting short-term trading opportunities.
RSI 101: The Secret of RSI’s WMA45 Line and How to Use ItIn my trading method, I use the WMA45 line together with RSI to help spot the trend more clearly.
Today, I’ll share with you how it works and how to apply it — whether you're doing scalping or swing trading.
Why WMA45?
WMA (Weighted Moving Average) is a type of moving average where recent prices are given more importance.
WMA45 simply means it takes the average of the last 45 candles (could be 45 minutes, 45 hours, or 45 days depending on your chart).
Because it moves slower than RSI, it helps reduce the “noise” and gives you a better idea of the real trend.
This idea is not new — many traders have tested RSI strategies also use this line. I just applied and adjusted it in my own way.
👉 How to set it up on TradingView (very simple):
What WMA45 Tells You
Trending
This line shows you the overall direction of the market:
📉 If WMA45 is going down, the price is likely going down.
📈 If WMA45 is going up, the price is likely going up.
Also, the steeper the line, the stronger the trend is:
Looking at the example above, the WMA45 line starts from the same level in two different phases, but the slope is different. The steeper line shows a larger price range.
This happens because the price was more volatile, which caused the RSI to move more sharply, and that, in turn, made the WMA45 slope steeper.
In multi-timeframe analysis, when the trend on the higher timeframe is strong (shown by a steep WMA45 line), the RSI on the lower timeframe will usually move within a tighter range and react more accurately to key levels.
If you’re not sure what these key RSI levels are, check out my previous post here:
For example, in a strong downtrend on H1, RSI on M5 might not even reach 50:
✅ What does this mean for trading?
Use WMA45 on higher timeframes to define trend bias.
On lower timeframes, watch RSI responses at key zones for optimal entries.
When holding positions, WMA45 helps determine whether to stay in the trade.
Moving Sideways
Here’s something important to note: when WMA45 is flat, RSI will keep crossing back and forth over it.
Depending on where WMA45 is flat, RSI tends to move within that range and creates different sideways price patterns. Here are the main types:
Around 50 → price moves in a box: According to RSI theory, the 50 level is the balance between buyers and sellers. RSI fluctuating around this causes price to move sideways in a rectangular box range.
Above 50 → price goes up in a rising channel: Above 50 is where buyers dominate sellers. RSI operating in this zone will continually create bullish candles pushing the price upward.
Below 50 → price goes down in a falling channel: Below 50 is where sellers dominate buyers. RSI in this zone will consistently form lower highs and lower lows, pushing the price downward.
Trend Reversal of WMA45
WMA45 is calculated from the average of 45 candles, so it's almost impossible for it to reverse direction suddenly. When it's sloping (trending), it takes time for RSI to fluctuate enough to "flatten" it before it can reverse.
As shown in the example, after WMA45 slopes up, before it turns downward, RSI must cross back and forth through it to reduce the steepness => flatten it => then reverse.
Does this align with Dow Theory? It represents the phases: Trend > Sideway > Trend. Sideway is when the WMA45 line is flattened.
✅ What does this mean for trading?
After a trend forms, if you want to enter a counter-trend trade, patiently wait for WMA45 to flatten to confirm the previous trend has ended.
Dynamic Support and Resistance
In addition to being a trend indicator for RSI, WMA45 also serves as a dynamic support/resistance level for RSI.
You will often observe RSI reacting when it encounters the WMA45 line.
In an uptrend, WMA45 acts as support for RSI.
In a downtrend, WMA45 acts as resistance for RSI.
Notably, if the reactions occur at higher RSI values, the resulting price support is stronger. Conversely, if reactions happen at lower RSI values, the price is pushed down further.
In the above example, in the first reaction around RSI 60s, RSI dropped by 9.6 points and price dropped by 12 points. In the second reaction at RSI 40s, RSI dropped similarly, but the price dropped by 25 points.
✅ What does this mean for trading?
You can use WMA45 as an entry zone for your trade: Wait for reactions with WMA45 on the higher timeframe, then switch to a lower timeframe to find a trade entry.
Use WMA45 as a take-profit or stop-loss level: For a short trade near WMA45, you can stop out if RSI crosses above it.
When monitoring these reactions, pay attention to the number of reactions—more reactions require more caution in trading.
Some Trade Setups Using WMA45 and RSI
1. Intraday trading
Trend: Follow the trend on the H1 chart.
Entry zone: At WMA45 of H1.
Entry confirmation: 2 methods:
On M5: when WMA45 of RSI is already flattened, and RSI has crossed above WMA45.
On M5: when a divergence appears in RSI.
2. Scalping
With the RSI’s reaction to WMA45, even on smaller timeframes (M1, M5), you can scalp when RSI touches WMA45.
When WMA45 has a slope and RSI returns to touch it, you can enter a trade with SL behind the candle close (10–20 pips to avoid stop hunts and spread), and TP to the nearest peak.
As mentioned, the first touch gives the best reaction.
My trading system is entirely based on RSI, feel free to follow me for technical analysis and discussions using RSI.
GOLD (XAUUSD): Your Plan to Buy
The recent fundamentals pumped Gold prices again.
The market is currently trading above a significant
daily resistance.
To confirm a validity of a breakout and to avoid a trap,
I suggest paying close attention to a minor horizontal
range on a 4H time frame.
Your signal to buy will be a 4H candle close above 3388.
It will confirm a breakout and increase the chances that the price will go up.
Goal will be 3435
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XAU/USD (Gold) H1 Breakout (29.04.2025)The XAU/USD Pair on the H1 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 3158
2nd Support – 3025
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Gold Bears Back in Control – Targeting 3270 AgainIn my analysis yesterday, I noted that after the false break above 3370 resistance, there was a high likelihood of a reversal, potentially driving Gold back down to the 3270 support zone.
Market Reaction:
• As expected, Gold turned lower after retesting the broken 3370 support, now acting as resistance.
• The price dropped nearly 1000 pips, which has become the new norm for daily Gold fluctuations lately.
W hat’s Next?
• With the current rebound, the 3370 zone should once again act as a barrier.
• The strategy remains to sell rallies, targeting a fresh test of the 3270 support zone.
Until this support is broken, expect very volatile moves, but the broader trend remains bearish
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XAU/USD..gold 15M chart pattern..Im planning a gold (XAU/USD) trade based on a trend line breakout strategy. Here's a breakdown of your setup:
**Trade Summary:**
- **Action:** SELL GOLD
- **Entry Price:** 3384
- **Target 1 (TP1):** 3352 (-32 points)
- **Target 2 (TP2):** 3322 (-62 points)
- **Strategy:** Trend line breakout (likely a breakdown below support).
### Key Considerations:
1. **Confirmation:**
- Ensure the trend line breakout is confirmed (e.g., a close below the trend line with momentum, high volume, or candlestick patterns like a bearish engulfing).
- Watch for retests of the broken trend line (now resistance) for added validity.
2. **Risk Management:**
- Place a stop-loss (SL) above the trend line or a recent swing high (e.g., 3405–3415, depending on volatility).
- Risk-reward ratio: TP1 offers ~1:1 if SL is ~30 points, TP2 ~1:2.
3. **Targets:**
- TP1 (3352): Partial profit-taking level.
- TP2 (3322): Final target, possibly near a support zone (adjust based on price structure).
4. **Market Context:**
- Check higher timeframes (H4/Daily) for alignment with the downtrend.
- Monitor USD strength, yields, or geopolitical news impacting gold.
Would you like help refining the stop-loss or analyzing the chart structure further?
Learn the 4 Best Strategies to Maximize Your Profits in Trading
In the today's article, we will discuss 4 classic yet profitable forex and gold trading strategies.
1️⃣Pullback Trading
Pullback trading is a trend-following strategy where you open the positions after pullbacks.
If the market is trading in a bullish trend, your goal as a pullback trader is to wait for a completion of a bullish impulse and then let the market correct itself. Your entry should be the assumed completion point of a correctional movement. You expect a trend-following movement from there.
In a bearish trend, you wait for a completion of the bearish impulse, let the market retrace, and you look for short-entry after a completion of the retracement leg.
Here is the example of pullback trading.
On the left chart, we see the market that is trading in a bearish trend.
A pullback trader would short the market upon completion of the correctional moves.
On the right chart, I underlined the buy entry points of a pullback trader.
That strategy is considered to be one of the simplest and profitable and appropriate for newbie traders.
2️⃣Breakout Trading
Breakout trading implies buying or selling the breakout of a horizontal structure or a trend line.
If the price breaks a key support, it signifies a strong bearish pressure.
Such a violation will trigger a bearish continuation with a high probability.
Alternatively, a bullish breakout of a key resistance is a sign of strength of the buyers and indicates a highly probable bullish continuation.
Take a look, how the price broke a key daily resistance on a daily time frame. After a breakout, the market retested the broken structure that turned into a support. A strong bullish rally initiated from that.
With the breakout trading, the best entries are always on a retest of a broken structure.
3️⃣Range Trading
Range trading signifies trading the market that is consolidating .
Most of the time, the market consolidates within the horizontal ranges.
The boundaries of the range may provide safe points to buy and sell the market from.
The upper boundary of the range is usually a strong resistance and one may look for shorting opportunities from there,
while the lower boundary of the range is a safe place to buy the market from.
EURCAD pair is trading within a horizontal range on a daily.
The support of the range is a safe zone to buy the market from.
A bullish movement is anticipated to the resistance of the range from there.
Taking into considerations, that the financial instruments may consolidate for days, weeks and even months, range trading may provide substantial gains.
4️⃣Counter Trend Trading
Counter trend trading signifies trading against the trend.
No matter how strong is the trend, the markets always trade in zig-zags. After impulses follow the corrections , and after the corrections follow the impulses.
Counter trend traders looks for a completion of the bullish impulses in a bullish trend to short the market, and for a completion of bearish impulses in a downtrend to buy it.
Here is the example of a counter trend trade.
EURJPY is trading in a bullish trend. However, the last 3 bearish moves initiated from a rising trend line. For a trader, shorting the trend line was a perfect entry to catch a bearish move.
Such trading strategy is considered to be one of the most complicated , because one goes against the crowd and overall sentiment.
With the experience, traders may combine these strategies.
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Gold can correct to support level and then continue to move upHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Gold. After studying this chart, we can track the progression of Gold's price action from strong bullish momentum to its current consolidation. Initially, the market trended confidently inside an upward channel, with steady growth supported by the lower boundary of the channel and occasional corrections after touching the resistance line. Each pullback respected previous support zones, a strong signal of buyer control at the time. The most impulsive move came after the price exited the buyer zone, followed by a clean breakout above the resistance line of the channel. However, once the price entered the seller zone, we saw the momentum start to fade. A strong rejection occurred near the resistance level at 3370, which eventually triggered a series of lower highs and shifted the market into a more neutral, range-bound phase. Currently, Gold is trading inside a defined range between 3205 and 3370. The bottom of this range aligns perfectly with the buyer zone, which already acted as a strong support during the last decline. We can also observe the market beginning to show signs of reversal after tapping the zone again. Given the reaction from the support area and the structure of the range, I expect the price can bounce back and make another attempt to reach the 3370 resistance level, which is my TP1 for this scenario. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
Gold will continue to fall after correctionGold after exiting the consolidation, which is the basis of the H&S reversal pattern, and falling by 1.7% gold may form a correction to accumulate the potential to continue its fall
The correction allows to accumulate energy before the fall at the expense of those who were selling (collect sellers' stoplosses), those who are now buying (collect stoplosses after the reversal).
Scenario: if the correction continues to the resistance 3260, it will be a key point from which we can consider the continuation of the fall. The signal for the fall will be the lack of opportunity to continue growth, i.e. false breakout and consolidation below 3260.
Gold XAUUSD Move 06.05.2025🔹 BUY-1: 3350–3355 Zone
Conditions to Enter:
Support must hold at the 3350–3355 zone.
Wait for a clear bullish M15 candle close above the support area to confirm strength.
Rationale:
This zone overlaps with a Fresh Demand Zone identified on your chart.
Entry here takes advantage of potential accumulation and demand absorption.
It's an early entry with a tighter stop loss (just below 3346–3350).
Ideal Setup:
Stop Loss: Below 3346.
Target: Near 3380–3400 zone or higher depending on momentum.
🔹 BUY-2: 3380–3385 Zone
Conditions to Enter:
Price must break above the 3380–3385 resistance zone.
Wait for a successful retest and bullish confirmation (engulfing/imbalance/M15 close above).
Rationale:
This is the breakout and retest trade mentioned on the chart.
Entering after confirmation reduces risk of a fakeout.
Aligns with institutional breakout behaviors.
Ideal Setup:
Stop Loss: Below the retest candle or previous structure (~3370 area).
Target: 3410–3430+ depending on R/R and momentum continuation.
Kindly show your support by follow, comment and share.
Gold Intraday Trading Plan 5/9/2025Gold has broken 3360 yesterday and tested 3300. Currently in daily timeframe, it is still bullish. As long as it is above 3270, I am bullish on gold.
I have two strategies for buying orders today.
1. Buy from 3270
2. Buy if 3330 broken
We can target 3360 for today.
Buying every dip on Gold / Fed sessionTechnical analysis: Wednesday’s session Inverted Hammer practically took Gold nowhere as Hourly 1 chart remained ranged within Higher High’s Upper and Lower zone, closing out last and this week on an expected positive note. The Monthly (#1M) candle remains on decent gains (# +11.57%) and the last two sessions on the second Highest Volume throughout April - May (this is translated to Gold’s cyclical behavior which I spotted lately when #2-High Volumed sessions are delivered, strong move follows). Despite the Higher High’s, it is clear that since the #3,400.80 local High’s, Gold undergoes a consolidation phase with equal demand and supply, which according to previous models is an Resistance zone preparation for the next leg Lower or Higher regarding Weekly chart (#1W). I remain idle until Fed announcement while Buying every dip last #2-session horizon.
XAU/USD (GOLD) TRADE PLAN 6/5/2025XAU/USD (Gold) Trading Outlook
The current price of XAU/USD around 3380 to 3375. We are anticipating a pullback towards the 3300 level, at which point we will look for long (buy) entry opportunities.
Key Resistance/Target Level:
TARGET 1: 3400
TARGET 2: 3450
TARGET 3: 3480
Key Support Levels:
SUPPORT 1: 3200
SUPPORT 2: 3150
This Strategy is based on the expectation of a price retracement, providing a more favorable risk-reward setup for long positions.
GOLD Trade Plan 08/05/2025Dear Traders,
after FOMC and After Powell's speech, we saw heavy fluctuations in gold. I expect the price to drop below the 3300 zone, which is a buying area, and from there, we could see a strong move toward the all-time high.
If you enjoyed this forecast, please show your support with a like and comment. Your feedback is what drives me to keep creating valuable content."
Regards,
Alireza