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XAUUSDG trade ideas

XAUUSD BATTLE PLAN — 16 JUNE 2025GoldFxMinds — Sniper Liquidity Execution 👋 Hello traders — we’re entering a highly tactical week where liquidity rotation dominates both sides of the board. This is no longer trend-following — this is liquidity chess. 🔎 Market Narrative Gold remains structurally bullish after a clean sequence of higher lows: 3120 → 3246 → 3448. Last week’s sweep above 3447 cleared weak hands, activated premium liquidity traps, and left price fully positioned inside extended premium expansion. Smart money continues rotating liquidity aggressively as markets prepare for this week’s heavy catalysts. With FOMC, Powell’s press conference, Fed projections, and Middle East tensions all unfolding, institutional positioning is building quietly beneath surface price moves. For us, this is not a moment to guess or force trades — this is the phase where patience and structure offer the only real edge. 🎯 GoldFxMinds Bias for 16 June 2025 🔼 Short-term: Price remains inside premium expansion, with open liquidity layers above 3450 → 3480 → 3505 still uncollected. We allow price to finish hunting late buyers before considering any premium exhaustion reactions. No blind shorting inside premium unless exhaustion signals confirm. 🔽 Medium-term positioning: Controlled pullbacks into 3368 and deeper recalibration zones offer the cleanest tactical long opportunities, aligned with higher timeframe bullish structure for potential future premium expansions. ❌ No aggressive directional conviction intraday: The current structure demands discipline, patience, and reactive execution — not early bias. 🔼 Premium Supply Zones (Sniper Calibrated) Price Zone Explanation 3450 – 3462 🔸 Premium inducement zone — early liquidity pocket where price may react mildly before sweeping deeper premium levels. 3480 – 3495 🔸 Liquidity collection extension — gap zone drawing in late buyers and liquidity build-up above recent highs. 3505 – 3515 🔸 Premium exhaustion — final sweep level for late liquidity grabs before potential higher timeframe recalibrations. 🔽 Demand Defense Zones (Sniper Calibrated) Price Zone Explanation 3410 – 3400 🔸 Micro pullback — short-term liquidity refill zone valid for scalps, not for strong swing positioning. 3368 – 3352 🔸 Tactical bullish recalibration — strong HTF OB + FVG combo, valid for tactical swing positioning with structure confirmation. 3308 – 3292 🔸 Institutional re-accumulation base — deeper liquidity recalibration where larger players likely step in for new expansions. 🎯 Execution Flow & Tactical Outlook We let liquidity fully expose itself before positioning: Above 3450: Expect continued liquidity sweeps. Monitor sharp reactions above 3480 for exhaustion setups — only trade short-side if clear rejection signals emerge. Into pullbacks: Minor dips toward 3410 offer quick reactive scalps only. The real positioning opportunities open inside 3368 and deeper zones, where recalibration offers cleaner entries aligned with HTF bullish structure. Discipline is key: No chasing. No prediction. Only reaction to clean liquidity behavior. 🧠 Trader’s Mindset for This Week We're facing one of the heaviest institutional risk weeks: 🏛 FOMC Interest Rate Decision → Major market-moving catalyst. 🏛 Powell’s Press Conference → Immediate tone-shifting potential. 📊 Fed Projections → Will influence short-term USD positioning. 📊 Retail Sales & Housing Data → Potential intraday volatility triggers. 🌍 Middle East Tensions → Underlying risk bid remains supportive for gold. Each event is fuel for liquidity displacement. We don't react emotionally — we position where liquidity delivers. 🚀 If this battle plan helps you stay fully locked — drop a 🚀, share your views, and follow GoldFxMinds for sniper liquidity updates throughout the week. Stay sharp — liquidity always moves first. — GoldFxMinds
TRADENATION:XAUUSD
by GoldFxMinds
1
Top 5 Most Effective Forex Trading StrategiesTop 5 Most Effective Forex Trading Strategies Used by Professional Traders Forex trading requires not just knowledge, but discipline and a clear strategy. So what are the most effective forex trading strategies that professional traders consistently use to achieve sustainable profits? Let’s explore the 5 most trusted strategies that have stood the test of time – helping you level up your skills and reduce risk in this trillion-dollar market. 1. Breakout Strategy – Catching the Wave When the Market Explodes A breakout occurs when price moves beyond a key support or resistance level after a period of consolidation. This usually signals the start of a new trend. Best for: Traders who love strong momentum. Pro tip: Confirm breakout with volume or candlestick patterns (e.g., engulfing). Caution: Avoid entering right after the breakout – wait for a retest. 2. Trend Following Strategy – Trade with the Market, Not Against It “Trend is your friend” – one of the most famous sayings in trading. This strategy helps traders ride the main trend, buying in uptrends and selling in downtrends. Recommended tools: MA 20, MA 50, RSI, MACD. Insider tip: Combine with pullback entries (enter when price retraces to dynamic support/resistance). 3. Price Action Strategy – Reading the Market Without Indicators Price Action focuses on interpreting pure price behavior, without relying on indicators. Many pro traders prefer this approach to understand market psychology in real time. Advantages: Clean, flexible, sharpens decision-making. Popular candlestick patterns: Pin Bar, Inside Bar, Fakey, Engulfing. 4. News Trading Strategy – For Quick Thinkers and Fast Hands When major news events like CPI, NFP, FOMC, or rate decisions hit the market, volatility surges. This creates both high-profit opportunities and high risks. Common tactic: Straddle – place Buy Stop & Sell Stop before news release. Risk warning: Watch out for slippage and widened spreads. 5. Fibonacci & Confluence Strategy – High-Probability Entries This strategy combines tools like Fibonacci retracement, trendlines, support/resistance zones, and moving averages to find high-probability entry points. Strength: Optimizes Risk: Reward ratio. Tip: Focus on Fib levels 0.382 – 0.618 (commonly used retracement zones). Conclusion: The Best Strategy is the One That Matches Your Style There’s no perfect strategy – but understanding and applying the one that best fits your trading style will help you avoid emotional decisions and build long-term consistency. Remember: Risk management – Emotional control – Systematic discipline = Long-term trading survival.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Henrybillion
2
Gold trading strategy june 13Yesterday's D1 candle was bullish, confirming the continuation of the uptrend. Following that uptrend, the Asian session saw a strong price increase to a high of 3443. If there is still confirmation from the h4 candle above 3397, today will still be a bullish candle with a large amplitude at the end of the day. After reaching a monthly high, Gold is in a bearish correction at the end of the Asian session. This correction will last until it touches the support level of 3397, which is a good BUY signal. The target for BUY signals will be 3364 and this area will have a profit-taking reaction from Buyers, causing the price to fall. Gold may touch the pre-ATH level of 3394 and there will be a reaction. On the other hand, there is a sweep to 3376, which is considered a daily support zone and you can buy in this area. Support: 3398- 3376 Resistance 3464-3495
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by VHT_Trader
6
The Fed’s decision may guide the direction of gold 💡Message Strategy Gold prices fell more than 1% as traders locked in profits after hitting an 8-week high, with attention turning to the Fed's policy decision and diplomatic signals from Iran. The move puts gold on track to form a bearish closing price reversal pattern, suggesting further consolidation if no new safe-haven demand emerges. Safe-haven demand stagnates as Israel-Iran tensions ease Geopolitical risks from the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict have been one of the key drivers of gold's recent gains. However, as reports emerged that Iran was willing to restart nuclear talks through an Arab intermediary, market reaction became muted. These developments led to a more than 3% drop in crude oil prices and eased inflation concerns. Despite the continued tensions in the Middle East, the change still limited further gains for gold. U.S. Treasury yields were almost flat on the day, reflecting a decline in the market's urgent demand for traditional safe-haven assets. A weaker dollar failed to support gold's gains The U.S. dollar index (DXY) fell to 97.685, just above last week's multi-year low. Bearish sentiment persists, and new short positions may curb any rebound. Gold's failure to rise despite a weaker dollar indicates overall hesitation in the market. Analysts pointed out that the lack of safe-haven inflows into the dollar and U.S. Treasuries highlights that traders are more focused on upcoming central bank guidance than geopolitical factors. Fed outlook will dominate short-term price action Traders are now awaiting the Fed’s decision on Wednesday, with expectations that interest rates will remain unchanged, but forward guidance will be key. Gold could face new pressure if Fed Chairman Powell turns hawkish or suggests that interest rates will remain high for a long time. Any signs of policy normalization could boost the dollar and weaken gold’s appeal. However, a dovish tone or concerns about the persistence of inflation could strengthen support for gold near technical key levels. Gold price forecast: If the $3310 range support is effective, the bullish trend remains 📊Technical aspects From a technical perspective, gold is testing a key support area. A drop to around $3,380 could trigger new buying; if this level is lost, it will further test the $3,350 support level. On the upside, resistance is close to $3,450, and if bullish momentum resumes, the all-time high of $3,500.20 is still possible. For now, the forecast maintains a cautiously bullish tone, provided that the $3,310 support level remains solid and the Fed avoids turning hawkish. 💰 Strategy Package Long Position:3375-3380 Short Position:3410-3420
TVC:GOLD
by TheodoreSilas
2
XAUUSD Sniper Plan – June 18, 2025Hey GoldMinds! 💛 After a messy reaction to today's Retail Sales miss, Gold continues to coil inside a premium range. With FOMC projections, rate statement, Powell’s press conference, and Unemployment Claims lined up next — volatility is far from over. Here’s our refined tactical plan 👇 🌍 Macro & Geopolitical Context • US Retail Sales disappointed — signaling cracks in consumer demand, potentially weighing on the USD. • Unemployment Claims up next — job market weakness could add pressure on USD if claims increase. • FOMC day: Expect massive liquidity sweeps during economic projections, rate decision, and Powell’s press conference. • Geopolitical tensions persist — no ceasefire in Middle East conflicts (Israel–Iran), and Russia–Ukraine remains unstable. Safe haven bids may still support gold on dips. 🧭 Bias: Tactical Neutral → Bearish • Price remains capped under 3415–3445 supply • EMAs are showing indecision: H1 trapped between EMA 5–21, H4 leaning weakly bullish • RSI on most TFs is neutral → market waiting for event catalyst • Structure suggests bull trap risk if 3415 holds 🔑 Key Sniper Zones 🔻 Sell Zones 1️⃣ 3405 – 3415 → H1-H4 OB + FVG + sweep confluence → Premium liquidity pocket — ideal trap for reactive sellers → Watch M15 for rejection confirmation 2️⃣ 3430 – 3445 → Upper inducement + clean OB + imbalance → Only valid if price spikes irrationally post-FOMC → Stronger reversal setup likely here 🟡 Pullback Monitor Zone 3390 – 3398 → No trade zone — watch for signs of rejection or continuation → Could act as short-term resistance before deeper moves 🟢 Buy Zones 1️⃣ 3365 – 3380 → Bounce zone with clean confluence: FVG, OB, previous HL → Best used for reactive entries after wick flushes → Key pivot zone with HL structure → OB + FVG combo, ideal for tactical long bounces with M15/M30 confirmation 2️⃣ 3335 – 3345 → Deeper structure retracement zone → Contains H4 OB, imbalance + golden Fibo pocket → Most reactive buy zone post-event volatility 🧠 Battle Plan Recap • If price fails to break 3415, we prepare for further bearish continuation • Bounces expected at 3365–3380 — confirmation needed • Final long setup lives at 3335–3345 — cleanest buy zone if FOMC triggers selloff • 3390–3398 is not for entries — only reaction monitoring • FOMC + Claims = high risk day → trade only sniper zones ✨ Final Notes Volatility creates traps. Structure gives clarity. We don’t predict — we react to the third move. 👇 Found this valuable? Hit the 🚀, follow for more sniper plans, and comment your bias! Let’s trade like pros, not guessers — GoldFxMinds 🧠✨
TRADENATION:XAUUSD
by GoldFxMinds
1
June 19 XAUUSD Setup — FOMC Aftershock or Bull Trap? Hey traders 👋 After yesterday’s FOMC fireworks and a weak reaction to initial retail sales data, gold broke structure into 3363 and is now floating below key resistance. Price is compressing under the previous H1 lower high, and liquidity continues to build on both sides — perfect conditions for engineered spikes. Let’s break it down clearly. 🌍 Macro & Sentiment Yesterday’s FOMC left rates unchanged, but Fed tone leaned hawkish. Retail Sales and Unemployment Claims disappointed — slight downside pressure on the dollar. Geopolitical front remains tense: no ceasefire in Gaza, Iran-Israel rhetoric escalates, and Russia-Ukraine conflict is ongoing. Liquidity is king — and gold is being boxed for the next big move. 📉 Bias & Structure Daily: Compression after FOMC, lower high remains in control. H4: Bearish break below 3380, EMA21 hovering above price. H1: Trendline structure broken, EMA5/21 forming bearish cross, RSI below 50. Fibo: H1 drawn from 3452 to 3363 — key golden zone at 3405–3415. 🎯 Bias: Tactical Bearish under 3415 — looking for short-term bounces or premium traps to sell. 🧠 Sniper Zones 🔻 Sell Zones 1️⃣ 3405 – 3415 → Key golden zone + EMA21 + FVG → Monitor M15/M5 rejection for continuation sells 2️⃣ 3435 – 3445 → Premium OB trap zone → If price spikes irrationally, this becomes the extreme reversal area 🔺 Buy Zones 1️⃣ 3365 – 3380 → Golden buy zone — real fib confluence → Already tapped today, but any clean retest may offer reactive bounce trades 2️⃣ 3335 – 3345 → Extreme flush zone — only valid if deep dump occurs → Watch for exhaustion and M15 reversal confirmation 🔻 Emergency Buy Zone: 3305 – 3292 🧠 Why this zone? ✅ H4 untested Order Block + FVG (June 11 candle). ✅ 78.6% Fibonacci retracement (H1 swing from 3452 → 3363). ✅ RSI likely to print oversold. ✅ Deep discount structure — potential final inducement for reversal. 🔔 Important: This is a backup zone, not for blind entries. It only becomes active if 3335 breaks with conviction (full candle body close + volume). Look for M15/M5 confirmation (divergence + price action signal) before engaging. 🔄 Flip Zone 3390 – 3398 → Volume zone from FOMC + OB test → If reclaimed cleanly, may flip intraday bias short-term 📌 Battle Notes Gold tapped 3363 today, reacting mildly. If price retraces toward 3405–3415, I’ll watch for shorts — but no early entries. Below 3365, watch for another bounce or setup around 3345. Flip zone remains indecisive until confirmed with volume. 🧭 Plan Recap → Bearish under 3415 → Pullback into 3405–3415 = short setup → Retest 3365–3380 = bounce watch → Flush into 3335 = reversal zone → 3435+ = irrational spike trap 🧠 Stay sniper. Wait for price to come to your zones — and execute only on confirmed reactions. — 🚀 If this helped bring clarity, tap that 🚀, leave your bias in the comments, and hit FOLLOW for real structure-based trading. 🟨 Disclosure: I am part of TradeNation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles. — GoldFxMinds 🧠✨
TRADENATION:XAUUSDShort
by GoldFxMinds
1
Fed Rate Decision: Gold's 3,400 Threshold as Bull-Bear DivideToday, the market has consolidated in a range throughout the day, with neither price direction nor volatility breaking through the range. However, our trading approach proved accurate: short positions were initiated near 3,400 during rebounds, and long positions were entered near the key level of 3,370 during pullbacks. Investors following our strategy have achieved profits from both directions. With limited price movement currently, the Fed's interest rate decision due to land in an hour will become the core variable dominating the market trend for the rest of the month. Currently, gold prices continue to trade below the 3,400 threshold, maintaining a weak market structure. The 3,400 level serves as a key watershed between bulls and bears, and the validity of its breakthrough will determine the trend inflection point: if prices effectively hold above 3,400 after the data release, it indicates that gold will break out of its weak pattern, with the potential for an accelerated rally ahead. Conversely, if prices remain suppressed below 3,400, it is highly likely to trigger further downward exploration. It is recommended to closely monitor the breakthrough signal at the 3,400 threshold after the data release, using this as the operational basis for trend switching. XAUUSD buy@3370-3380 tp:3400-3420-3450 Investment itself is not the source of risk; it is only when investment behavior escapes rational control that risks lie in wait. In the trading process, always bear in mind that restraining impulsiveness is the primary criterion for success. I share trading signals daily, and all signals have been accurate without error for a full month. Regardless of your past profits or losses, with my assistance, you have the hope to achieve a breakthrough in your investment.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by EvanField
5
DeGRAM | GOLD kept the rising channel📊 Technical Analysis ● Price rejected the channel roof near 3 435 again, carving a small evening-star and slipping back under the May trend-median 3 370 — a repeat of April/May fades. ● Bearish RSI divergence plus a break of the micro up-sloper (last three sessions) tips for a rotation toward the lower rail/3 295 support; loss of that opens the April pivot at 3 225. 💡 Fundamental Analysis ● Sticky US retail-sales and hawkish Fed comments keep 2-yr yields near 4.8 %, firming the DXY, while CFTC data show specs cutting longs for a second week — limiting bid depth. ✨ Summary Sell rallies 3 410-3 430; sustained trade below 3 366 targets 3 295, stretch 3 225. Short view void on an H4 close above 3 450. ------------------- Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with a like. Thanks for your support!
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by DeGRAM
2
Adjusted down 3385 at the beginning of the week⭐️GOLDEN INFORMATION: Gold prices (XAU/USD) climbed toward $3,445 during the early Asian session on Monday, marking their highest level in over a month as mounting tensions in the Middle East and growing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut bolstered demand for safe-haven assets. Despite stronger-than-expected US economic data on Friday, investors remained focused on geopolitical risks. The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index for June jumped to 60.5, well above the consensus forecast of 53.5 and May’s reading of 52.2. However, markets largely shrugged off the data. Instead, attention turned to the escalating conflict in the Middle East, where Israel’s recent strike on Iran has intensified fears of broader regional instability. In response, Iranian authorities warned they would “respond firmly to any adventurism,” reinforcing gold’s appeal amid global uncertainty. ⭐️Personal comments NOVA: At the beginning of the week, gold prices adjusted slightly down, returning to the liquidity zone of 3385, before continuing the uptrend. ⭐️SET UP GOLD PRICE: 🔥SELL GOLD zone: 3462- 3464 SL 3469 TP1: $3450 TP2: $3440 TP3: $3430 🔥BUY GOLD zone: $3390-$3388 SL $3383 TP1: $3400 TP2: $3410 TP3: $3422 ⭐️Technical analysis: Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable SELL order. ⭐️NOTE: Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well - take the number of lots that match your capital - Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account - Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Nova-Scalper
4
THE KOG REPORT - UpdateEnd of day update from us here at KOG: Yesterday we wanted that up move, then the tap of the low and the long which worked well from the red boxes which are now on the chart. Focus was on the news today and we had not 1, not 2, but 3 active targets and a hotspot. Target was hit on the release, hotspot reacted and we got a nice short down to complete 2 short targets to end the day. We would say resistance here is now the 3330 region which if held should give us an undercut low into that lower red box to potentially stretch those wick chasers out a little. That wick however is concerning, Gold doesn't like leaving them behind! As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
20
GOLD The Federal Reserve is likely to interpret the June 2025 University of Michigan (UoM) consumer sentiment and inflation expectations data as mixed but cautiously encouraging, with implications for monetary policy: Key Data Points Consumer Sentiment: 60.5 (vs. 53.5 forecast, prior 52.2) – a sharp rebound to the highest level since mid-2023. What is UoM consumer sentiment? The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI), often referred to as UoM Consumer Sentiment, is a widely followed monthly survey that measures how optimistic or pessimistic American consumers feel about the overall economy and their financial situation. Key Details: Purpose: It measures consumer attitudes toward current and future economic conditions, including personal finances, business conditions, and purchasing intentions. Since consumer spending accounts for about 68% of the U.S. economy, the index is a valuable leading indicator of economic activity. Methodology: The University of Michigan conducts telephone and web surveys of a representative sample of U.S. households (around 500–1000 respondents), asking about their financial health, short-term and long-term economic outlook, and expectations for inflation and interest rates. Components: Current Conditions Index — consumers’ assessment of the present economic situation. Consumer Expectations Index — consumers’ outlook for the economy over the next 6–12 months. Release Schedule: Preliminary data is released mid-month, with a final report at month-end. Significance: Reflects consumer confidence and spending intentions. Helps forecast economic growth and inflation trends. Influences financial markets and policy decisions. Summary The UoM Consumer Sentiment Index is a key measure of how confident consumers feel about the economy, which in turn signals their likely spending behavior and economic outlook. Higher sentiment typically suggests stronger consumer spending and economic growth, while lower sentiment indicates caution and potential economic slowdown. 1-Year Inflation Expectations: 5.1% (vs. 6.6% prior) – a significant decline, nearing pre-tariff levels. Fed Interpretation Improved Consumer Sentiment: The jump to 60.5 signals renewed optimism about the economy, likely driven by reduced trade tensions (e.g., tariff pauses) and stable labor markets. This aligns with recent upward revisions to April and May sentiment data. The Fed will view this as a sign of economic resilience, reducing the urgency for near-term rate cuts to stimulate growth. Sharply Lower Inflation Expectations: The drop to 5.1% (from 6.6%) aligns with the New York Fed’s May 2025 survey showing declining inflation expectations across all horizons. This suggests consumers are growing more confident that the Fed’s policies (and tariff adjustments) are curbing price pressures, easing fears of a wage-price spiral. Policy Implications: Dovish Tilt Supported: Lower inflation expectations reduce the risk of entrenched price pressures, giving the Fed flexibility to cut rates later in 2025 if growth slows. No Immediate Cuts Likely: Strong sentiment and a resilient labor market (unemployment at 4.2%) justify maintaining rates at 4.25–4.50% in July. Focus on Tariff Risks: The Fed will remain cautious about potential inflation rebounds from Trump’s tariffs, which could add 1.5% to prices by late 2025. Market Reactions DXY (Dollar Index): Likely to dip modestly as lower inflation expectations boost rate-cut bets, but sentiment-driven growth optimism may limit losses. Key support at 96.891 weekly floor will be watched. Bonds: 10-year yields may edge lower (toward 4.00%) on reduced inflation fears, though strong sentiment could cap declines. Equities: Stocks (especially consumer-discretionary sectors) may rally on the improved economic outlook. Conclusion The Fed will likely view this data as validating its cautious stance: inflation expectations are cooling, but strong sentiment and labor markets argue against premature easing. A September rate cut remains the base case, contingent on continued disinflation and no tariff-driven price spikes. (2)The Federal Reserve will interpret —Core PPI m/m: 0.1% (vs. 0.3% forecast, prior -0.2%), PPI m/m: 0.1% (vs. 0.2% forecast, prior -0.2%), and Unemployment Claims: 248K (vs. 242K forecast, prior 248K)—as further evidence of a cooling but not collapsing labor market and subdued inflation pressures. Fed’s Likely Interpretation 1. Producer Price Index (PPI) what is PPI? PPI stands for Producer Price Index. It is an economic indicator that measures the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. Essentially, it tracks inflation at the wholesale or producer level, reflecting how prices for goods and services change before they reach consumers. Key points about PPI: Published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Measures price changes from the perspective of producers/sellers, unlike the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures prices from the consumer’s viewpoint. Includes thousands of indexes across industries and product categories, covering goods and some services. Used to forecast inflation trends and as a tool for contract escalations and economic analysis. Often considered a leading indicator of consumer inflation since producer prices tend to influence retail prices over time. In summary, the PPI helps gauge inflation pressures early in the production process before they Inflation Remains Subdued: Both headline and core PPI came in below expectations, confirming that producer-side inflation pressures remain mild. This follows a period of outright declines, indicating no broad-based resurgence in input costs. Tariff Pass-Through Still Limited: While the Fed is alert to potential tariff-driven inflation later in 2025, current PPI data shows businesses are not yet passing higher costs on to consumers in a meaningful way. 2. Unemployment Claims Labor Market Softening: Initial jobless claims held at 248K, above expectations and at an eight-month high. The four-week moving average also rose, and continuing claims increased to 1.956 million, marking the third consecutive weekly rise. This signals a gradual loosening of the labor market, with more people remaining unemployed for longer periods. No Immediate Crisis, But Trend Is Clear: The persistently high claims numbers are moving beyond seasonal noise and indicate a structural shift toward weaker hiring. 3. Policy Implications Supports Dovish Shift: The combination of softer producer inflation and a weakening labor market strengthens the case for the Fed to consider rate cuts later in 2025. No Immediate Rate Cut: The Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged at its June meeting, but this data increases the likelihood of a cut by September, especially if upcoming CPI and labor data confirm these trends. Cautious Messaging: The Fed will remain cautious due to the risk of tariff-related inflation later in the year, but current data gives them more flexibility to pivot if growth and employment weaken further. Conclusion The Fed will see this data as validating a cautious, data-dependent approach: inflation is contained, and the labor market is softening. While no immediate rate cut is expected, the probability of a cut by September has increased, especially if disinflation and labor market weakness persist. (3)The Federal Reserve will likely interpret the May 2025 CPI data as signs of moderating inflation but with persistent underlying pressures, leading to a cautious but patient policy stance: What is cpi??? The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a key economic indicator that measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a representative basket of goods and services. It reflects inflation as experienced by consumers in their day-to-day living expenses. Key Points about CPI: What it Measures: The CPI tracks price changes for a broad range of items including food and beverages, housing, apparel, transportation, medical care, recreation, education and communication, and other goods and services. Data Collection: The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) collects about 80,000 price quotes monthly from retail stores, service establishments, rental units, and doctors' offices. Purpose: It is widely used to monitor inflation, adjust income payments like Social Security, and guide monetary policy decisions by central banks. Calculation: CPI is a weighted average of prices, reflecting consumer spending patterns, and is updated periodically to account for changes in consumption habits. Inflation Indicator: The annual percentage change in CPI is a common measure of inflation, indicating how much prices have increased or decreased over a year. Summary CPI provides a snapshot of how much prices for everyday goods and services are rising or falling, helping policymakers, businesses, and consumers understand inflation trends and make informed decisions. The headline CPI rose 0.1% month-over-month, less than the 0.2% expected and down from April’s 0.2% increase, indicating a slowdown in price growth. The year-over-year CPI increased 2.4%, slightly above April’s 2.3%, but still close to the Fed’s 2% target, showing inflation is near but not fully anchored. The core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose 0.1% MoM, below the 0.3% forecast and April’s 0.2%, suggesting easing price pressures in most sectors except shelter and some services. Shelter costs rose 0.3% in May and remain a key driver of inflation, while energy prices declined 1.0%, helping to temper headline inflation. The Fed will note that tariffs imposed by the Trump administration have not yet significantly pushed up consumer prices, but remain a risk factor that could elevate inflation later in 2025. Labor market data remain resilient, with unemployment steady at 4.2% and moderate job growth, supporting economic strength but complicating the Fed’s inflation fight. Policy Implications: The Fed is expected to hold interest rates steady at 4.25–4.50% in its upcoming June meeting, maintaining a "wait-and-see" approach to assess how tariffs and inflation evolve. Markets have limited expectations of a rate cut this month but the price in a ~75% chance of a cut by September, contingent on further inflation easing and labor market developments. The Fed will remain cautious about premature easing given inflation’s stickiness in services and potential tariff pass-through, but the data support a gradual path toward rate cuts later in 2025 if disinflation continues. In summary: The Fed will see May’s CPI data as encouraging but not definitive evidence of inflation control, justifying a cautious hold on rates in June while preparing markets for possible easing later this year if inflation and labor data continue to improve. (4)The Federal Reserve will interpret the May 2025 labor market data—Non-Farm Employment Change of 139K (above the 126K forecast), Unemployment Rate steady at 4.2%, and Average Hourly Earnings up 0.4% MoM (above the 0.3% forecast)—as evidence of a resilient but slowing labor market, which supports a cautious approach to monetary policy. Detailed Interpretation: Employment Growth Slightly Above Expectations The addition of 139,000 jobs, exceeding the forecast of 126,000, indicates that job creation continues. Growth is uneven across sectors, with healthcare and leisure showing strength while government and trade-related sectors have seen declines, reflecting ongoing structural adjustments and policy uncertainties. Unchanged Unemployment Rate at 4.2% The stable unemployment rate suggests that the labor market remains relatively tight, consistent with "maximum employment" goals. However, underlying data show some signs of weakening, such as rising initial jobless claims in late May, which the Fed will monitor closely. Wage Growth Accelerates Slightly Average hourly earnings rose by 0.4% MoM, above expectations, signaling persistent wage pressures that can feed into inflation. Year-over-year wage growth ticked up to 3.9%, reinforcing concerns about labor cost-driven inflation. Overall Fed View The Fed sees the labor market as a relative bright spot amid broader economic uncertainties, including trade tensions and slowing GDP growth. The data suggest the economy is slowing but not collapsing, allowing the Fed to maintain a cautious, data-dependent stance. Given persistent wage growth and resilient employment, the Fed is likely to hold interest rates steady at the upcoming meetings but remains open to cuts later in 2025 if labor market softness intensifies and inflation continues to moderate. Conclusion The Fed will likely interpret this labor market report as supporting a steady policy stance in the near term, balancing ongoing inflation concerns from wage growth against signs of slowing employment gains. Rate cuts remain on the table for later in 2025, contingent on further labor market weakening and sustained inflation declines.. Summary of the three economic data leads the rate hold for now, but cut likely any time soon on the data approach. #gold #dollar
BLACKBULL:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
4
Gold Breaks $3400 – Targets $3500 Amid Tensions (READ)By analyzing the gold chart on the lower timeframe, we can see that today, following Israel's missile and airstrike attacks on Iran, gold experienced a sharp rally. As anticipated last night, gold finally managed to break through the strong $3400 resistance, surging over 600 pips to reach $3447. Currently, gold is trading around $3438, and given the escalation in geopolitical tensions, I expect further upside movement. The next potential targets are $3449, $3469, and possibly $3500. ⚠️ Due to ongoing conflict and extreme volatility, it's advised to avoid trading or proceed only with minimal risk exposure. Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by ArmanShabanTrading
2
Beyond the Headlines - Gold Outlook June 16-20, 2025Beyond the Headlines: Gold's Ascent Amidst Global Shifts & Key Technicals 🌐🚀 Everything about the last week can be found here: OANDA:XAUUSD 💰📈 We all know what's going on, I believe. Israel struck Iran 💥, and this conflict will likely take a bit before things cool down. 🥶 --- ## Geopolitical News Landscape 🌍📰 ### Israel / Iran Since June 12, Israel launched "Operation Rising Lion," targeting Iranian nuclear sites like Natanz and Esfahan – over 128 killed, Iran claims. 🇮🇷 retaliated with missile and drone strikes on Haifa and Tel Aviv, killing at least 10. 🚀 **Outlook:** 🔥 Tensions are spiraling. Without urgent mediation, full-scale regional war remains a real risk. 💣 ### India / Pakistan Since the May ceasefire, few clashes have occurred. However, both navies increased readiness, signaling potential escalation at sea. 🚢 **Outlook:** ⚖️ Peace is fragile. A strategic dialogue is key to avoiding a renewed border or maritime conflict. 🙏 ### Gaza Conflict Between June 7–15, Israeli strikes killed at least 41 Palestinians, including 8 near an aid center in Rafah. Over 55,000 total deaths, and famine is looming. 💔 **Outlook:** 🆘 Gaza remains a humanitarian catastrophe. Global pressure for access and a ceasefire must intensify. 🕊️ ### Russia / Ukraine June 13–15: Russia returned the bodies of 1,200 Ukrainian soldiers in a rare POW swap gesture. 🤝 Fighting remains intense in Sumy and Toretsk; Russia hit a major oil refinery. 🏭 **Outlook:** 🕊️ While symbolic moves continue, no peace is in sight – battlefield outcomes will shape diplomacy. ⚔️ ### U.S. - China Trade War The U.S. hiked tariffs to 55% on key Chinese goods. 🇺🇸🇨🇳 responded with 10% on U.S. imports. Talks yielded a partial truce, but military-use rare earths remain unresolved. 💻 **Outlook:** 🔧 Tech remains the battleground. Without progress on critical materials, the trade war may deepen. 📉 ### Global Trade War The OECD revised global growth downward due to rising tariffs from the U.S. targeting 🇨🇳, 🇲🇽, 🇨🇦. Global trade volume is expected to shrink by 0.2–1.5%. 📉 **Outlook:** ⛓️ Supply chain disruption is spreading. Global trade will stay under pressure without coordinated policy. 🌍➡️🌍 ### Trump vs. Powell Trump labeled Powell a "numbskull" for not cutting rates, suggesting he might "force something" if re-elected. 🗳️ The Fed maintains policy independence ahead of a critical June decision. 🏛️ **Outlook:** ⚔️ Political pressure on the Fed is mounting. Expect more friction as the election cycle heats up. 🔥 ### U.S. Inflation CPI rose 2.4% YoY in May (from 2.3%); Core CPI held steady at 2.8%. Monthly growth was modest at 0.1%. Key rises were seen in healthcare and vehicle prices. 🚗🏥 **Outlook:** Inflation is stable but sticky. 🚦 The Fed will likely hold rates steady until clearer disinflation signals appear. 📊 --- ## Technical View 📐📈 ### Market Structure: Gold shows a clear **bullish market structure** with higher highs and higher lows. ⬆️ Recent price action suggests we're in a strong uptrend with institutional buying pressure. 🏦 ### Key Levels: * The chart shows a significant low around the **$3,245 area** (marked as "Low") which could act as a key institutional support level. 💪 * The current high near **$3,446** represents a potential institutional resistance zone. 🛑 * Look for potential **order blocks** around the **$3,380-$3,400 range** where price consolidated before the recent breakout. 🧱 ### Fair Value Gaps (FVG): There appear to be several gaps in the price action during volatile moves, particularly during strong rally phases. These could act as future support/resistance areas. 📉📈 ### Gann Analysis: The price movement shows strong adherence to Gann principles: * The rally from the low follows a steep angle, suggesting strong momentum. 🚀 * Key Gann angles would place support around the **$3,300-$3,320 zone**. 📐 * The current price near **$3,436** is testing natural resistance levels based on Gann square calculations. 📏 ### Fibonacci Levels: From the significant swing low to the current high: * 23.6% retracement: ~$3,395 📉 * 38.2% retracement: ~$3,370 📉 * 50% retracement: ~$3,345 📉 * 61.8% retracement: ~$3,320 📉 The golden ratio levels suggest key support on any pullback would be around the **$3,370-$3,345 zone**. ✨ ### Institutional Levels: * **Weekly/Monthly Levels:** The **$3,400** and **$3,450** areas appear to be significant institutional levels based on round numbers and previous price action. 🏦💰 * **Smart Money:** The accumulation pattern before the breakout suggests institutional participation. 🧠💡 ### Cycle Timing: Based on the timeframe (appears to be 30-minute bars from May 26-June 15): * We're seeing approximately **3-week cycles** in the major moves. 🗓️ * The current rally phase appears to be in its mature stage. 🌳 * The next potential cycle turn could be approaching, suggesting caution for new longs at current levels. ⚠️ --- ### Trading Considerations: * Watch for rejection at current levels near **$3,446**. 📉 * Key support confluence around **$3,370-$3,345** for potential re-entry. 🎯 * Volume and momentum divergences would be critical for timing any reversal. 📊🔄 Other indicators tend to show bullish scenario enhancements. 🚀 Gold has formed a ** Standard Bullish Flag pattern ** over a time from early April till today. 🚩🐂 Also, the structure of a ** reverse Head & Shoulders ** is existing and has broken the neckline! 🔄🗣️ Another indicator is an existing "** Ascending Bull Flag **." ⬆️🚩 Please take the time to let me know what you think about this. 💬 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- This is just my personal market idea and not financial advice! 📢 Trading gold and other financial instruments carries risks – only invest what you can afford to lose. Always do your own analysis, use solid risk management, and trade responsibly. Good luck and safe trading! 🚀📊
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Wick-Sniper
2
Accumulate around 3400, Keep interest rate today⭐️GOLDEN INFORMATION: Gold prices slipped below the $3,400 threshold on Tuesday, weighed down by renewed strength in the US Dollar (USD), despite a worsening global risk sentiment. The resilience of the greenback limited gains in the safe-haven asset, though mounting tensions between Israel and Iran continue to offer underlying support. At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading at $3,380, down 0.05%. Although risk appetite remains subdued, gold has struggled to rally, as the US Dollar regains ground. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the currency against a basket of six major peers, climbed 0.46% to 98.58. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions intensified after US President Donald Trump abruptly departed the G7 summit in Canada on Monday in response to unfolding events in the Middle East. In a stark warning posted to his social platform, he urged, “Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran,” signaling a sharp escalation in the conflict that began last Friday. ⭐️Personal comments NOVA: Gold price is moving in accumulation zone below 3400 - 3365. Break and return above 3400, continue to accumulate. ⭐️SET UP GOLD PRICE: 🔥SELL GOLD zone: 3437- 3439 SL 3444 TP1: $3425 TP2: $3410 TP3: $3395 🔥BUY GOLD zone: $3338-$3340 SL $3333 TP1: $3346 TP2: $3355 TP3: $3370 ⭐️Technical analysis: Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable BUY order. ⭐️NOTE: Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well - take the number of lots that match your capital - Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account - Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Nova-Scalper
2
Gold could go to 3600A retest of 3435 does not lead to a pullback or reversal. The price is consolidating near the level, which indicates to us that the buyers are stronger in the moment. The fall of the dollar may support gold, leading to an overall rise not only to 3500 but also to 3600 Scenario: in the Pacific or Asian session, gold may try to break the 3435 resistance. Consolidation above this level will lead to growth and a retest of 3495 from which a small pullback (a logical reaction to the resistance level) may occur before continuing to grow in the medium term.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by AndeWave
3
Gold is on a riseHi traders, Last week gold went exactly as I've said in my previous outlook. After price came into the bullish 4H FVG it started the next impulse wave 3 (purple) up. So next week we could see a small correcton down and more upside. Let's see what price does and react. Trade idea: Wait for a small correction down on a lower timeframe to finish and trade longs again. If you want to learn more about trading FVG's & liquidity sweeps with wave analysis, please make sure to follow me. This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis. Don't be emotional, just trade your plan! Eduwave
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by EduwaveTrading
1
Gold’s in a Trap — And That’s Exactly Why You Should Be CarefulGold is stuck in a tight sideways range. It’s been bouncing between $3,370–$3,380 for two days now. Everyone sees it. Every trader watching gold knows this level acted as support — and judging by the candle shadows, buyers are getting aggressive here. So if you're purely technical — yeah, looks like a solid buy right now. But here’s the twist… ___________________________________________________________ I’m not buying. And I’ll tell you why — because it's too obvious. When something screams "buy" from every chart and every textbook, that’s when you pause and ask yourself: “Am I about to walk into a classic setup… or actually catch a real move?” Because history shows us — these textbook setups often play out like this: Motivation → Encouragement → Payback. (See Chart 2) It goes like this: Price breaks a visible high or low (Motivation) Traders jump in and get some pips(Encouragement) Then — brutal reversal (Payback) Only then will everything get off the ground, and it will be fast, so that the "unnecessary" passengers who were "dropped off" should not have time to return to this train. So why are they "unwanted"? Well, here's one possible answer: because retail tends to hold losing trades too long , but gets spooked early on winners. We’re wired that way. So what happens when everyone starts booking profits after a small bounce? You get limit sell orders piling up , slowing momentum — sometimes even flipping the trend. And then what do big players do? Then come back in — buying at higher levels, averaging their positions. Not the best case scenario.... Key Takeaway: ______________________ Here’s my advice — especially if you’re in this game long-term: 1. Avoid those super obvious setups everyone else is jumping into. 2. Instead of asking, "Why should I open a trade now?" Try asking: "Why shouldn’t I open a trade now?" p.s. If you liked this kind of deep-dive — follow along. We don’t just read charts. We read the market behind them. Conclusion: _________________________ 📍 Gold is testing a key zone — but don’t let the crowd pull you in. 🧠 The first quick impulse is often a trap 📈 Stay sharp, stay ahead.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by ClashChartsTeam
1
#XAUUSD[GOLD]:At Critical Level, Bullish Swing Is Very LikelyHey There Everyone, So, gold prices took a bit of a dip, hitting 3250 gold. But guess what? They bounced back like a rubber ball and reached 3332! And here’s the exciting part: they broke through that pesky bearish trend line. This means they’re probably going to retest that line to confirm the trend. Right now, it looks like they’re at a potential retest point, and that’s where things could get really interesting. If strong bullish volume comes in, the price could skyrocket! There are three possible targets here: 3332, 3362, and 3420. Now, here’s something important to keep in mind: next week, there are some big news and events coming up that could totally shake things up in the gold market. And let’s not forget about price manipulation. If someone tries to mess with the price, it could drop back to 3250 and then reverse course. So, it’s crucial to have backup plans in case of any unexpected twists. The US dollar is also going to be all over the place due to upcoming news, which could disrupt the gold market and other currencies. So, it’s best to trade cautiously today and next week. The price can be a bit unpredictable, so take your time to do your own analysis and assess your risk before making any moves. Good luck and trade safely! We wish you all the best in your trading journey! Cheers, Team Setupsfx_
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Setupsfx_
10