Valid or fake out? - [1H] formationHere is what I noticed—let me know if this aligns with your perspective or if you see something different.
📌 Wave Structure Alignment
Wave A → C → E show corrective declines within the contracting triangle.
Wave B → D retrace in a controlled manner, respecting contraction limits.
Price tightening near 3392 - 3360, signaling absorption before a breakout move.
📌 Fibonacci Relationship Check
Wave A retraced ~38.2% - 61.8% of the previous impulse move.
Wave B & C followed standard corrective depths (~50% - 78.6%), aligning with expected fib levels.
Wave E represents the final squeeze (~38.2% - 61.8% of Wave D), acting as a breakout trigger.
📌 Liquidity Positioning & Institutional Play
Bullish Breakout Potential: A strong push above 3417 could activate momentum toward 3440 - 3510, but only if absorption transitions into expansion.
Bearish Breakdown Risk: If price rejects 3392, expect a liquidity grab driving price into 3303 - 3370 range.
💡 Verdict: What to Watch Next
The triangle structure appears valid, following typical Fibonacci relationships and smart money positioning. However, the breakout direction remains uncertain—monitor liquidity behavior closely before confirming entry.
📌 Key Levels in Play
🔹 3378 Retest: A crucial resistance zone—failure to reclaim suggests strong sell pressure.
🔹 Break Above: If buyers absorb selling pressure, the move could extend past 3385 pivot, favoring bulls.
🔹 Failure to Hold: A rejection at 3378 could induce fast liquidation, sending price toward 3363 and below.
🔥 Smart Money Perspective
Institutions may test 3378 multiple times before deciding the next move.
If absorption strengthens , price may lean bullish.
If rejection dominates , expect a fast downward sweep into 3339 - 3326 range.
The liquidity game is in play—what’s your take on this setup? Anything you’d fine-tune based on current order flow? 🚀🔥 Would love to hear your perspective!
