Gold Weekly Summary and Prediction 6/8/2025In my last week's post, I mentioned that gold would potentially form an inverse head and shoulder pattern. In deed, the structure has been formed after last week's closing above 3300. In daily we also noticed that the trendline structure has been broken. Currently price is retesting the trendline. If daily candle respects the trendline, we would see a strong pushing on the price towards another ATH.
For next week's trading plan, I will closely monitor the trendline and 3280-3300 support. As long as this support holds, I am bullish on gold.
XAUUSDK trade ideas
ELLIOT WAVEOANDA:XAUUSD 4 HOUR
**According to the Elliott Wave theory, the ongoing pattern appears to be a double correction. Wave 3 of {Y} has been completed, and Wave 4 is currently in progress. A potential buying opportunity may arise between the levels of 3360 and 3350. **
**However, if gold breaks below the 3350 level, further downside movement is expected, with the next support zone likely between 3315 and 3297. **
**Furthermore, if gold breaks the critical level of 3250, it may extend its decline toward the 3215–3197 range.**
Long profit-taking,how to position gold before unemployment data📰 Impact of news:
1. Pay attention to the initial unemployment claims data
📈 Market analysis:
After being pulled down, the gold price quickly rebounded to around 3385, and the RSI showed a V-shaped reversal. It is not recommended to chase the rise at present. In the short term, pay attention to the upper resistance area of 3385-3395. If the gold price effectively breaks through this resistance area, it is expected to touch the 3400-3410 line. On the contrary, it encounters resistance and pressure at the 3385-3395 line, and may retreat to the 3370-3360 line in the short term.
🏅 Trading strategies:
SELL 3385-3395
TP 3370-3360
If you agree with this view, or have a better idea, please leave a message in the comment area. I look forward to hearing different voices.
OANDA:XAUUSD FX:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD FXOPEN:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD
Gold Weekly Chart May Form a Mid-Term Bearish Pattern (3142)Gold faced resistance near 3338 and has pulled back,
but the 2-hour chart still suggests that the rebound isn’t over yet, with short-term targets at 3340–3350.
—
📌 For Long Position Holders:
If you're stuck in long positions, consider adding near 3326–3316 support
to average down the cost and prepare for an exit on the next rebound.
⚠️ However, be mindful of your account risk —
If your position is deeply in the red or the account is under pressure, closing out early might be the smarter move.
—
📅 Key Focus This Week: Weekly Chart Signals Critical
🔸 Price is currently testing weekly MA10 — a break below it would target MA20 around 3142
🔸 On the daily chart, MA60 is at 3234, and if support near 3388 breaks,
combined with weak rebound volume, a bearish trend could be confirmed.
In that case, even the 3273 support may fail under bearish momentum.
—
📣 Bottom Line: The bullish setup isn’t invalidated yet,
but caution is crucial when trading long —
📉 If momentum fades, adjust your strategy quickly to protect capital.
Gold within my mentioned rangeTechnical analysis: Gold is Trading within my projected zones as I will constantly monitor the situation and will await for confirmation of a break-out or Trading my key reversal zones (either below the Hourly 4 chart’s Support or Daily chart Resistance). That is the plan and it is my belief that it is the most viable one to get the most of the current Price-action as I will continue Scalping (Swing orders not possible under such market setting). I still don’t have entry confirmation as Technically Gold is Trading on Ascending Channel but isolated within Rising Wedge, however both correlating assets are Trading on disappointing numbers so Bullish trend (spikes to the upside) are here to stay.
My position: So far I have Buy and Sell limits which are working greatly so far. I have Sold Gold throughout yesterday’s session from #3,348.80 and added more Selling orders on #3,337.80 break-out to the downside which delivered decent Profit.
Gold’s Week Ahead: Structure, Scenarios, and What to WatchChart Overview:
Gold (XAU/USD) is at a critical juncture. The recent action shows a completed three-wave correction, and price is now setting up for what could be a powerful motive wave. My primary scenario is a bullish move once the current structure matures, but I’m also tracking alternate counts—flat, triangle, and double zigzag—all of which still point to at least one more push higher.
Why This Count?
The leading diagonal (5-3-5-3-5 or 3-3-3-3-3) for wave 1 fits the textbook, with wave 4 overlapping wave 1—a classic Elliott Wave signature.
The three-wave correction appears complete, which often signals the start of a new impulsive sequence.
I’m watching for confirmation: a completed corrective pattern and a strong move off the lows.
What’s Next?
If the correction finishes and price holds above the wave 1 low, I’ll be looking for a long setup targeting the 100% or 1.618 extension of wave 1.
Invalidation is simple: if the wave 1 low breaks, the count is off and I’ll reassess.
I’ll wait for structure to complete before entering—patience is key.
GOLD - WAVE 4 CORRECTION TO $2,800 (UPDATE)If you remember on my last analysis I said we need to see Gold surpass $3,400 & CLOSE ABOVE the 0.365% zone, in order to confirm strong bullish intent. Otherwise, we’ll see a melt back down. Market didn’t close in the orange 0.365% zone, which of course led to a sell off on Thursday & Friday.
However, we still remain in bullish territory on an internal structure, as long as Gold is above $3,246 so let’s see who takes the reign!
Gold Weekly Summary and Forecast 6/14/2025
In my last week's post, I mentioned that the inverted head and shoulder has been formed and we should see price soaring up as long as 3300 holds. Indeed in this past week, after touching briefly 3300, price went through a few days of consolidation. I almost thought the trend has been reversed. However, I still followed my weekly instinct. And this week closes above 3400. We should see more price pump next week. I am expecting another ATH to at least 3600.
From 2D TF, gold respected the trendline well and I will look for buying opportunity from 3400 next week.
Gold Testing Channel Resistance – Bearish Reversal Expected Gold (XAU/USD) – 4-Hour Time Frame Analysis
Gold is trading within an upward parallel channel on the 4-hour chart, with price action consistently respecting both the support and resistance boundaries of the formation.
At present, Gold is approaching the upper boundary of the channel, currently trading around 3425, indicating a key resistance zone. A rejection from this level is anticipated, which could initiate a corrective move to the downside.
Entry 3425 (Resistance Zone)
Target 3340 (Support Zone)
Stop-Loss 3451
The technical setup favors a short position, with a favorable risk-to-reward ratio if the resistance holds. Traders are advised to monitor for confirmation signals before entry.
Bearish bias below 3451, with potential downside toward 3340.
XAUUSD Analysis todayHello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
The key resistance zone shows obvious suppression.Spot gold continued its upward trend, with the intraday high reaching $3,398.55 per ounce, hitting a new weekly high. This rally was not only boosted by the lower-than-expected U.S. inflation data but also closely related to the sharp escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Investors' expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September have intensified, and the risk of potential conflicts in the Middle East are jointly driving a surge in demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Affected by the moderate inflation data, the U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.4% on Wednesday, and in the early Asian session on Thursday, it dropped to 98.42, a new one-week low, nearing the six-week low of 98.35 set last week. The weakening U.S. dollar provided additional support for gold prices, as gold is priced in U.S. dollars, and a depreciating dollar typically pushes up gold prices. Meanwhile, after falling due to tariff shocks in the spring, U.S. stocks have gradually recovered, but uncertainties about the details of trade agreements have kept market volatility alive. The decline in U.S. Treasury yields has also created a favorable environment for rising gold prices. Focus on the resistance at the $3,400 level. Currently, the bullish momentum has not broken through this key resistance zone, and the technicals conform to the logic of "washing the market with a prior rise followed by a fall". In terms of operation, it is recommended to try shorting when resistance is encountered below $3,400. In the short term, observe the rebound momentum of gold prices. If it fails to effectively break through the $3,400 resistance area, seize the opportunity for shorting at highs.
Humans need to breathe, and perfect trading is like breathing—maintaining flexibility without needing to trade every market swing. The secret to profitable trading lies in implementing simple rules: repeating simple tasks consistently and enforcing them strictly over the long term.
Trading Strategy:
sell@3400-3390
TP:3370-3360
"Gold (XAUUSD) Possible Breakout Trap Forming-Big Reversal Move Gold has formed a potential breakout trap near key resistance levels. A false breakout could lead to a strong reversal targeting the 3200 support zone. Watching for RSI divergence and volume confirmation. Not financial advice — for educational purposes only.
Gold contained within a rangeTechnical analysis: Recovery continuation on Gold throughout one of the most Volatile weeks of #Q2 (at least for now), in configuration (which should be Technically Bearish for Gold) on the E.U. opening aftermath, where Bond Yields (# -1.10%) possibly reached the Bottom and are currently on aggressive takedown path at the moment, which is adding constant Buying pressure on Gold. Uptrend on Gold is stalled as news hit all market classes and trend Intra-day shift on both DX and Bond Yields on spiral downtrend may constantly accelerate Gold upwards and touch #3,332.80 - #3,342.80 Resistance zone. I will continue Trading Gold within well known range as long as DX is Trading on Neutral numbers. Fundamental events should appear as relief news (at least for Gold’s Buyers) and make DX break well defined Support fractal and Gold to gain (much more attractive for Investors which are and will be looking for safe-haven assets in High demand), but configuration went other way around, and not to calculate more, there is the rule which I mention constantly (what was the Support, becomes the Resistance and vice-versa), I am a bit surprised that Gold recovered this much without a catalyst and #3,342.80 Medium-term Resistance almost got tested and invalidated on multiple occasions will shift Gold from Neutral to Bullish on Short-term. I will monitor the situation and will await for confirmation of a breakout (either below the Hourly 4 chart’s Support or Daily chart Resistance).
My position: I have re-Sold Gold firstly on #3,327.80 and #3,338.80 throughout yesterday’s session and closed both of my orders on #3,324.80 which was tested on late U.S. session. Nothing new personally as I am Trading / continue operating within #3,302.80 - #3,342.80 Neutral Rectangle with my aggressive stronger Lot Scalping orders as I believe we might be contained within mentioned belt a while.
Analysis of gold price trend next week!Market news:
This week (June 2 to June 6), the spot gold market has become more volatile due to the interweaving of multiple factors. Spot gold prices fell more than 1% on Friday due to the impact of strong US employment data, but still recorded a 0.8% increase for the whole week, showing the game between safe-haven demand and the strengthening of the US dollar. The trade uncertainty caused by Trump's tariff policy, the continued increase in international gold holdings by global central banks, and the tense geopolitical situation provide support for London gold prices, while the solid US employment data pushed up US Treasury yields, weakened the Fed's expectations of rate cuts, and put pressure on international gold prices. The market continues to pay attention to geopolitical risks and trade uncertainties. Silver performed even better, hitting its highest level since 2012, and platinum and palladium also recorded weekly gains. The precious metals market as a whole was driven by speculative funds. The market's uncertainty about the Trump administration's steel and aluminum tariffs and fiscal policies has driven global central banks to increase their gold holdings. And the cautious attitude of Federal Reserve officials towards rate cuts is beneficial to long-term demand for gold. Next week, the US CPI data and the progress of trade negotiations will become the focus of the market. If inflationary pressure rises, it may further push up US bond yields and put pressure on gold prices; if the data is soft, it may rekindle expectations of interest rate cuts, which is good for gold. In addition, the progress of trade negotiations and geopolitical risks such as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will continue to affect market sentiment.
Technical Review:
From the perspective of this week's market, the high-rise and fall-down trend continued, and the low point was refreshed. The signal that gold is heading towards an extremely weak pattern is getting stronger and stronger, and selling has the capital to pierce 3300. From a technical perspective, on the weekly chart, this week's high-rise and fall closed with an inverted head, and the MACD indicator showed signs of a dead cross downward at a high level. The current pattern is conducive to continued selling! On the daily chart, two consecutive negative lines on the daily chart caused the price to run below the short-term moving average, and led to a downward trend near the 10-day moving average of 3330. The 5-day moving average also followed closely at around 3355. In addition, the upward momentum of other periodic indicators weakened, and the MACD indicator showed a dead cross downward pattern, so the daily chart should tend to be short. However, one thing is worth noting, that is, after the gold price rebounded at 3307 on Friday, the middle track of the Bollinger Band has moved up, which means that the buying defense has been strengthened. Therefore, while the daily line is biased towards selling, we must also pay attention to the strength of the bulls' counterattack.
Next week's analysis:
Next week's operation suggestion is to maintain the idea of selling as the main idea, supplemented by buying at low prices. For the upper resistance, pay attention to the 3328-3330 area first, and then pay attention to the 3345-3350 area. The former is regarded as the key to selling and exploring the low point, or even breaking the middle track of the Bollinger Band at 3295, which is also the low point of this week. The latter is a strong defense for selling in the short-term shock trend! In other words, selling below 3330 can complete the touch of the low point or new low next week in the short term, while selling below 3350 is still expected to test the new low, but the time period will be extended. As for the support below, focus on 3280. It is expected that it will be close to or touched at the beginning of next week, but whether it can break directly needs to be judged according to the actual trend, so it is best to wait for it to touch or break once before taking more. The 1-hour moving average of gold has formed a dead cross downward, so gold still has downward momentum. After the 1-hour high box of gold oscillated, gold finally broke through the box downward, indicating that gold is better sold. Then the bottom of the gold box has now formed resistance, and the short-term 3333 line of gold has formed resistance to gold. If gold is under pressure at 3333 at the beginning of next week, then gold can continue to be sold.
Operation ideas:
Buy short-term gold at 3277-3280, stop loss at 3268, target at 3310-3330;
Sell short-term gold at 3330-3333, stop loss at 3342, target at 3300-3280;
Key points:
First support level: 3300, second support level: 3280, third support level: 3261
First resistance level: 3330, second resistance level: 3348, third resistance level: 3375
Gold Wave Analysis – 13 June 2025- Gold recently broke resistance level 3400.00
- Likely to rise to resistance level 3500.00
Gold recently broke the resistance level 3400.00 coinciding with the resistance trendline of the daily Triangle from April.
The breakup of the resistance level 3400.00 accelerated the active impulse wave 3 of the intermediate impulse wave (5) from the middle of May.
Gold can be expected to rise to the next major resistance level 3500.00 (former monthly high from April. which stopped the previous impulse wave (3)).
GOLDThe Federal Reserve is likely to interpret the June 2025 University of Michigan (UoM) consumer sentiment and inflation expectations data as mixed but cautiously encouraging, with implications for monetary policy:
Key Data Points
Consumer Sentiment: 60.5 (vs. 53.5 forecast, prior 52.2) – a sharp rebound to the highest level since mid-2023.
1-Year Inflation Expectations: 5.1% (vs. 6.6% prior) – a significant decline, nearing pre-tariff levels.
Fed Interpretation
Improved Consumer Sentiment:
The jump to 60.5 signals renewed optimism about the economy, likely driven by reduced trade tensions (e.g., tariff pauses) and stable labor markets. This aligns with recent upward revisions to April and May sentiment data.
The Fed will view this as a sign of economic resilience, reducing urgency for near-term rate cuts to stimulate growth.
Sharply Lower Inflation Expectations:
The drop to 5.1% (from 6.6%) aligns with the New York Fed’s May 2025 survey showing declining inflation expectations across all horizons.
This suggests consumers are growing more confident that the Fed’s policies (and tariff adjustments) are curbing price pressures, easing fears of a wage-price spiral.
Policy Implications:
Dovish Tilt Supported: Lower inflation expectations reduce the risk of entrenched price pressures, giving the Fed flexibility to cut rates later in 2025 if growth slows.
No Immediate Cuts Likely: Strong sentiment and a resilient labor market (unemployment at 4.2%) justify maintaining rates at 4.25–4.50% in July.
Focus on Tariff Risks: The Fed will remain cautious about potential inflation rebounds from Trump’s tariffs, which could add 1.5% to prices by late 2025.
Market Reactions
DXY (Dollar Index): Likely to dip modestly as lower inflation expectations boost rate-cut bets, but sentiment-driven growth optimism may limit losses. Key support at 98.00–98.20.
Bonds: 10-year yields may edge lower (toward 4.00%) on reduced inflation fears, though strong sentiment could cap declines.
Equities: Stocks (especially consumer-discretionary sectors) may rally on improved economic outlook.
Conclusion
The Fed will likely view this data as validating its cautious stance: inflation expectations are cooling, but strong sentiment and labor markets argue against premature easing. A September rate cut remains the base case, contingent on continued disinflation and no tariff-driven price spikes. Traders should watch for June CPI (July 11) and Q2 GDP to confirm trends
#gold #dollar
GOLD The Federal Reserve is likely to interpret the June 2025 University of Michigan (UoM) consumer sentiment and inflation expectations data as mixed but cautiously encouraging, with implications for monetary policy:
Key Data Points
Consumer Sentiment: 60.5 (vs. 53.5 forecast, prior 52.2) – a sharp rebound to the highest level since mid-2023.
1-Year Inflation Expectations: 5.1% (vs. 6.6% prior) – a significant decline, nearing pre-tariff levels.
Fed Interpretation
Improved Consumer Sentiment:
The jump to 60.5 signals renewed optimism about the economy, likely driven by reduced trade tensions (e.g., tariff pauses) and stable labor markets. This aligns with recent upward revisions to April and May sentiment data.
The Fed will view this as a sign of economic resilience, reducing urgency for near-term rate cuts to stimulate growth.
Sharply Lower Inflation Expectations:
The drop to 5.1% (from 6.6%) aligns with the New York Fed’s May 2025 survey showing declining inflation expectations across all horizons.
This suggests consumers are growing more confident that the Fed’s policies (and tariff adjustments) are curbing price pressures, easing fears of a wage-price spiral.
Policy Implications:
Dovish Tilt Supported: Lower inflation expectations reduce the risk of entrenched price pressures, giving the Fed flexibility to cut rates later in 2025 if growth slows.
No Immediate Cuts Likely: Strong sentiment and a resilient labor market (unemployment at 4.2%) justify maintaining rates at 4.25–4.50% in July.
Focus on Tariff Risks: The Fed will remain cautious about potential inflation rebounds from Trump’s tariffs, which could add 1.5% to prices by late 2025.
Market Reactions
DXY (Dollar Index): Likely to dip modestly as lower inflation expectations boost rate-cut bets, but sentiment-driven growth optimism may limit losses. Key support at 98.00–98.20.
Bonds: 10-year yields may edge lower (toward 4.00%) on reduced inflation fears, though strong sentiment could cap declines.
Equities: Stocks (especially consumer-discretionary sectors) may rally on improved economic outlook.
Conclusion
The Fed will likely view this data as validating its cautious stance: inflation expectations are cooling, but strong sentiment and labor markets argue against premature easing. A September rate cut remains the base case, contingent on continued disinflation and no tariff-driven price spikes. Traders should watch for June CPI (July 11) and Q2 GDP to confirm trends.
#gold #dollar
XAUUSD is over bought on weekly Timeframe As we took buy on 1st attempt at 3435 towards 3460 although our TP is missed by 10 pips at 3448 .
-Currently market Is not crossing 3445 barrier
-Although this pump is because of War Escalation .
- if we narrow down weekly Timeframe Gold is over bought.
We're still focusing on buying on dips 3390-3380 will be my main area of buying.
Keep in mind we have to get confirmation 1st before buying.
All the enteries should be taken if All the rules are applied
#XAUUSD