Bearish Price Supporting on XAUUSD.The idea is simple still there is no strong Bullish Argument formed now price forming all the Bearish Argument . Short with Confirmation Better to wait to confirm 4H FVG and short.
XAUUSDK trade ideas
Continue the bearish trend.After the opening of gold, bullish and bearish forces fiercely contended, with prices falling first and then rising. After finding support at the key level of 3293, they rose again. During the Asian session, prices broke through the early session high of 3320 and surged toward 3330. However, the rally significantly slowed down after reaching this area, exposing signs of fatigue in bullish momentum. Technically, a top divergence signal has emerged. It is recommended to use the 3333-3343 range as resistance and lay out short positions on rallies. The first support below to monitor is 3305. If this level is breached, it may retest the early session low of 3293 from which the rally originated. During the US session, special attention should be paid to the risk of a breach of 3293, which could trigger a new downward trend.
Humans need to breathe, and perfect trading is like breathing—maintaining flexibility without needing to trade every market swing. The secret to profitable trading lies in implementing simple rules: repeating simple tasks consistently and enforcing them strictly over the long term.
Trading Strategy:
sell@3330-3340
TP:3305-3310
GOLD - where is current support? What's next??#GOLD.. perfect move as per our last idea regarding gold with fundamental support of Israel attacked.
Now market have 3410-11 as immediate supporting area and if market sustains above that then we can expect further push to upside.
Good luck
Trade wisely
GOLD
GOLD complete sell on lock zone
check previous post
Federal Reserve Interpretation of May CPI Data
Key CPI Figures (May 2025)
Headline CPI:
MoM: 0.1% (vs. 0.2% forecast, prior 0.2%).
YoY: 2.4% (vs. 2.5% forecast, prior 2.3%).
Core CPI (ex-food/energy):
MoM: 0.1% (vs. 0.3% forecast, prior 0.2%).
YoY: 2.8% (vs. 2.9% forecast).
Fed’s Likely Interpretation
Cooling Inflation Momentum:
The softer-than-expected MoM and core CPI prints suggest inflation is moderating, particularly in goods categories like gasoline (-2.6% MoM) and autos. Shelter inflation (3.9% YoY) also cooled slightly, a critical factor for the Fed.
Annual CPI (2.4%) remains above the Fed’s 2% target but shows progress from pandemic-era peaks.
Tariff Impact Delayed:
The data reflects limited immediate pass-through from Trump’s April tariffs, which are expected to raise prices by ~1.5% over time. The Fed will remain cautious, as tariff effects could materialize in late 2025, complicating the inflation trajectory.
Labor Market Resilience:
Despite softer inflation, unemployment held at 4.2% in May, and wage growth stayed elevated (3.9% YoY). This gives the Fed flexibility to prioritize inflation containment over premature easing.
Policy Implications:
Near-Term Hold: The Fed is almost certain to keep rates at 4.25–4.50% in June, aligning with its "higher for longer" stance.
Dovish Tilt for 2025: Markets now price a ~75% chance of a September cut (up from ~55% pre-CPI). The Fed may signal openness to easing if inflation continues trending toward 2% and tariff impacts remain muted.
Market Reactions
Bonds: 10-year Treasury yields to 4.12%, reflecting bets on future rate cuts.
Dollar: The DXY dipped to 98.50 but stabilized as traders weighed Fed caution against global risks.
Equities: Nasdaq and S&P 500 rallied on reduced stagflation fears.
What’s Next?
June 12 PCE Data: The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge will confirm whether disinflation is broadening.
Federal Reserve Interpretation of June 12 Economic Data
Key Data Points
PPI (Producer Price Index) MoM: 0.1% (vs. 0.2% forecast, prior -0.5%).
Core PPI (ex-food/energy) MoM: 0.1% (vs. 0.3% forecast, prior -0.4%).
Unemployment Claims: 248K (vs. 242K forecast, prior 247K).
Fed’s Likely Interpretation
1. Subdued Producer Inflation
Cooling Input Costs: Both headline and core PPI rose 0.1% MoM, below expectations, signaling muted producer-side inflation. This follows prior declines (-0.5% headline, -0.4% core), suggesting persistent disinflationary pressures in supply chains.
Implication: Weak PPI supports the Fed’s view that inflation is moderating, reducing urgency for rate hikes. However, the Fed will remain cautious about potential tariff-driven price spikes later in 2025.
2. Labor Market Softening
Rising Jobless Claims: Claims increased for the second straight week (248K vs. 242K forecast), aligning with May’s softer ADP and NFP reports. The 4-week average now sits at 243K, the highest since September 2023.
Implication: A cooling labor market supports arguments for rate cuts to avoid over-tightening, but the Fed will seek confirmation in future reports (e.g., June NFP).
3. Policy Outlook
September Rate Cut Odds: Markets now price a ~70% chance of a September cut (up from ~65% pre-data). The Fed is likely to hold rates steady in July but may signal openness to easing if disinflation broadens.
Balancing Risks: While PPI and claims data lean dovish, the Fed remains wary of premature easing given:
Sticky Services Inflation: CPI services ex-energy rose 4.1% YoY in May.
Tariff Uncertainty: Trump’s tariffs could add 1.5% to inflation by late 2025.
Market Reactions
Bonds: 10-year Treasury yields fell 3 bps to 4.09%, reflecting rate-cut bets.
DXY: Dollar index dipped to 98.30, pressured by dovish Fed expectations.
Conclusion
The Fed will view today’s data as reinforcing the case for rate cuts in 2025, but policymakers will likely wait Q2 GDP before committing. While PPI and jobless claims suggest easing inflation and labor momentum, the Fed’s cautious stance on tariffs and services inflation means a September cut remains the baseline scenario, contingent on sustained disinflation.
July Meeting: Likely a hold, but the Fed’s updated dot plot could hint at 2025 cuts.
Tariff Watch: Delayed price pressures from tariffs remain a wildcard, keeping the Fed data-dependent.
Summary
The Fed will view May’s CPI as encouraging but insufficient to justify imminent rate cuts. While inflation moderation supports a dovish pivot later in 2025, policymakers will demand more evidence of sustained disinflation and clarity on tariff impacts before easing.
#gold
GOLD H1 Intraday Chart Update For 12 June 2025Hello Traders
First of all we have US CPI High Impact event due today
now market is try to testing 3400 Psychological level once it will pass 3380-86 strong resistance zone and once market will break 3400 it will move towards 3423
3350 Psychological level remains in focus for a while due to retesting RBS zone
overall 334050 zone remain solid Buying Zone for now
Also keep an eyes on US CHINA Tariff news
Middle east tensions are remains watchable for now
Disclaimer: Forex is Risky
Will gold surge and then fall after CPI?Judging from the 4-hour gold chart, gold maintains an overall volatile upward trend, so I think the data may be an opportunity to arrange short orders at highs. Although the price of gold has risen rapidly after the data was released, it should be noted that it has shown obvious signs of pressure in the volatile trading concentration area of 3380-3390. Since the current bullish momentum is not enough to effectively break through this key resistance level, the decline of gold prices after rising is in line with technical logic. Specific operation suggestions are to follow the trend of low-long and high-short trading strategies. From the current situation, I suggest that gold rebounds to around 3380-3385 to arrange short orders.
Operation strategy:
1. It is recommended to short gold near the rebound of 3380-3385, with a stop loss at 3393 and a target of 3360-3340;
Elliot wave 15 min$OANDA: XAUUSD
>>According to Elliott Wave theory, Wave 3 is continuous, and gold will rise to the 3350 level
>>2297 is a support level. If the daily candle closes below it, gold may further decline to the level of 2262
GoldCurrent Price Level:
The current price is around $3,304.00.
This is marked as the Entry Point for a potential long position.
Support and Resistance Zones:
Support Zone: Around $3,293.00, highlighted in red, indicating the stop-loss level to minimize loss.
Resistance Zones: Several profit-taking levels are identified at 3,318.00∗∗,∗∗3,318.00**, **3,318.00∗∗,∗∗3,335.00, 3,360.00∗∗,and∗∗3,360.00**, and **3,360.00∗∗,and∗∗3,392.00.
After achieving 1st TP. shift stop to entry
The short-term tug-of-war for gold is starting
Gold prices continued their decline last Friday and stabilized and rebounded. Yesterday, gold prices fell back to the 3,300 mark, then slowly rose to the 3,338 mark, and fell back after encountering resistance, which is in line with the technical consolidation rhythm.
- China-US trade negotiations: The US has released signals that it is willing to relax export restrictions, and the market is waiting for the results of the negotiations, which may affect risk sentiment.
- US May CPI data: Inflation changes will provide key guidance for the Fed's policies.
- The current trend is weak, but the downside is limited. Buy on dips and avoid large-scale shorting.
- Today, it is recommended to wait and see, and wait for the negotiation results to become clear before entering the market to reduce volatility risks.
🔥Sell gold area: 3330-3348 SL 3352
TP1: $3320
TP2: $3310
🔥Buy gold area: $3295-$3305 SL $3290
TP1: $3320
TP2: $3330
The golden direction after non-agricultural
💡Strategy Review
Gold fell sharply from a high on Friday. We insisted on high shorts. Although gold seemed to rebound strongly, it quickly fell back under pressure at 3375. Gold continued to short at 3370 and fell before the non-farm payrolls. Gold was bearish on the US non-farm payrolls. Gold continued to short at 3365 and finally fell sharply. Gold continued its two consecutive wins at high altitudes on Friday.
Although gold has not reached our second target, it has fallen perfectly to our first target, and there is also room for profit of $70.
So what will be the trend of gold in the future?
At present, the short trend of gold is still strong. If it continues to fall below 3290 after opening, there will be a lot of room for further decline.
📊Technical aspects
The gold 1-hour moving average has formed a dead cross downward, so gold still has downward momentum. After the gold 1-hour high box oscillation, gold finally fell below the box, indicating that the gold short position is better.
Then the bottom of the gold box has now formed resistance, and the short-term 3340 line of gold has formed resistance to gold. If gold is under pressure at 3340 at the beginning of next week, then gold can continue to be short.
💰 Strategy Package
Short Position：3330-3340
XAUUSD Sell Setup Analysis (June 9)**## 🟣 **XAUUSD Sell Setup Analysis (June 9)**
### 🔹 **Entry Zone:** 3320–3323
Price is entering a short-term **supply zone** or resistance band — potentially a previous H1/H4 reaction point.
---
### ✅ **Reasons for the Sell:**
1. **Resistance Retest (H1/H4)**
* 3320–3323 acted as support-turned-resistance earlier.
* Price bounced off this area previously → now offering a clean retest zone.
2. **Wick Rejection / Exhaustion Signs**
* On lower timeframes (M15–M30), price shows wicks and slowing bullish candles near 3320, suggesting weakness.
3. **Bearish Divergence Potential**
* Possible divergence on RSI or MACD if price spikes above 3320 while momentum slows.
4. **Short-Term Overbought Conditions**
* Following a rally into 3323, price may correct downward to clear liquidity below.
---
### 🎯 **Target Zones (TPs):**
| TP | Level | Logic |
| ------- | ----- | --------------------------------------------- |
| **TP1** | 3317 | Minor intraday low / structure break zone |
| **TP2** | 3312 | Pre-breakout base from earlier H1 candles |
| **TP3** | 3305 | Key demand zone — possible reaction area |
| **TP4** | 3299 | Stronger support, possible daily bounce level |
---
### ❌ **STOP LOSS: 3328**
This is a solid SL zone:
* Just above the local highs and outside most false breakouts
* Keeps your R\:R clean (1:2 to 1:4 range depending on TP)
---
### 📊 **Summary:**
| Element | Value |
| -------------- | ----------- |
| Direction | **Sell** 📉 |
| Entry Zone | 3320–3323 |
| Stop Loss | 3328 |
| TP1 | 3317 |
| TP2 | 3312 |
| TP3 | 3305 |
| TP4 | 3299 |
| R\:R Potential | Up to 1:4 |
---
GOLD
The Federal Reserve is likely to interpret the June 2025 University of Michigan (UoM) consumer sentiment and inflation expectations data as mixed but cautiously encouraging, with implications for monetary policy:
Key Data Points
Consumer Sentiment: 60.5 (vs. 53.5 forecast, prior 52.2) – a sharp rebound to the highest level since mid-2023.
What is UoM consumer sentiment? The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI), often referred to as UoM Consumer Sentiment, is a widely followed monthly survey that measures how optimistic or pessimistic American consumers feel about the overall economy and their financial situation.
Key Details:
Purpose: It measures consumer attitudes toward current and future economic conditions, including personal finances, business conditions, and purchasing intentions. Since consumer spending accounts for about 68% of the U.S. economy, the index is a valuable leading indicator of economic activity.
Methodology: The University of Michigan conducts telephone and web surveys of a representative sample of U.S. households (around 500–1000 respondents), asking about their financial health, short-term and long-term economic outlook, and expectations for inflation and interest rates.
Components:
Current Conditions Index — consumers’ assessment of the present economic situation.
Consumer Expectations Index — consumers’ outlook for the economy over the next 6–12 months.
Release Schedule: Preliminary data is released mid-month, with a final report at month-end.
Significance:
Reflects consumer confidence and spending intentions.
Helps forecast economic growth and inflation trends.
Influences financial markets and policy decisions.
Summary
The UoM Consumer Sentiment Index is a key measure of how confident consumers feel about the economy, which in turn signals their likely spending behavior and economic outlook. Higher sentiment typically suggests stronger consumer spending and economic growth, while lower sentiment indicates caution and potential economic slowdown.
1-Year Inflation Expectations: 5.1% (vs. 6.6% prior) – a significant decline, nearing pre-tariff levels.
Fed Interpretation
Improved Consumer Sentiment:
The jump to 60.5 signals renewed optimism about the economy, likely driven by reduced trade tensions (e.g., tariff pauses) and stable labor markets. This aligns with recent upward revisions to April and May sentiment data.
The Fed will view this as a sign of economic resilience, reducing the urgency for near-term rate cuts to stimulate growth.
Sharply Lower Inflation Expectations:
The drop to 5.1% (from 6.6%) aligns with the New York Fed’s May 2025 survey showing declining inflation expectations across all horizons.
This suggests consumers are growing more confident that the Fed’s policies (and tariff adjustments) are curbing price pressures, easing fears of a wage-price spiral.
Policy Implications:
Dovish Tilt Supported: Lower inflation expectations reduce the risk of entrenched price pressures, giving the Fed flexibility to cut rates later in 2025 if growth slows.
No Immediate Cuts Likely: Strong sentiment and a resilient labor market (unemployment at 4.2%) justify maintaining rates at 4.25–4.50% in July.
Focus on Tariff Risks: The Fed will remain cautious about potential inflation rebounds from Trump’s tariffs, which could add 1.5% to prices by late 2025.
Market Reactions
DXY (Dollar Index): Likely to dip modestly as lower inflation expectations boost rate-cut bets, but sentiment-driven growth optimism may limit losses. Key support at 96.891 weekly floor will be watched.
Bonds: 10-year yields may edge lower (toward 4.00%) on reduced inflation fears, though strong sentiment could cap declines.
Equities: Stocks (especially consumer-discretionary sectors) may rally on the improved economic outlook.
Conclusion
The Fed will likely view this data as validating its cautious stance: inflation expectations are cooling, but strong sentiment and labor markets argue against premature easing. A September rate cut remains the base case, contingent on continued disinflation and no tariff-driven price spikes.
(2)The Federal Reserve will interpret —Core PPI m/m: 0.1% (vs. 0.3% forecast, prior -0.2%), PPI m/m: 0.1% (vs. 0.2% forecast, prior -0.2%), and Unemployment Claims: 248K (vs. 242K forecast, prior 248K)—as further evidence of a cooling but not collapsing labor market and subdued inflation pressures.
Fed’s Likely Interpretation
1. Producer Price Index (PPI)
what is PPI? PPI stands for Producer Price Index. It is an economic indicator that measures the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. Essentially, it tracks inflation at the wholesale or producer level, reflecting how prices for goods and services change before they reach consumers.
Key points about PPI:
Published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Measures price changes from the perspective of producers/sellers, unlike the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures prices from the consumer’s viewpoint.
Includes thousands of indexes across industries and product categories, covering goods and some services.
Used to forecast inflation trends and as a tool for contract escalations and economic analysis.
Often considered a leading indicator of consumer inflation since producer prices tend to influence retail prices over time.
In summary, the PPI helps gauge inflation pressures early in the production process before they
Inflation Remains Subdued: Both headline and core PPI came in below expectations, confirming that producer-side inflation pressures remain mild. This follows a period of outright declines, indicating no broad-based resurgence in input costs.
Tariff Pass-Through Still Limited: While the Fed is alert to potential tariff-driven inflation later in 2025, current PPI data shows businesses are not yet passing higher costs on to consumers in a meaningful way.
2. Unemployment Claims
Labor Market Softening: Initial jobless claims held at 248K, above expectations and at an eight-month high. The four-week moving average also rose, and continuing claims increased to 1.956 million, marking the third consecutive weekly rise. This signals a gradual loosening of the labor market, with more people remaining unemployed for longer periods.
No Immediate Crisis, But Trend Is Clear: The persistently high claims numbers are moving beyond seasonal noise and indicate a structural shift toward weaker hiring.
3. Policy Implications
Supports Dovish Shift: The combination of softer producer inflation and a weakening labor market strengthens the case for the Fed to consider rate cuts later in 2025.
No Immediate Rate Cut: The Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged at its June meeting, but this data increases the likelihood of a cut by September, especially if upcoming CPI and labor data confirm these trends.
Cautious Messaging: The Fed will remain cautious due to the risk of tariff-related inflation later in the year, but current data gives them more flexibility to pivot if growth and employment weaken further.
Conclusion
The Fed will see this data as validating a cautious, data-dependent approach: inflation is contained, and the labor market is softening. While no immediate rate cut is expected, the probability of a cut by September has increased, especially if disinflation and labor market weakness persist.
(3)The Federal Reserve will likely interpret the May 2025 CPI data as signs of moderating inflation but with persistent underlying pressures, leading to a cautious but patient policy stance:
What is cpi??? The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a key economic indicator that measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a representative basket of goods and services. It reflects inflation as experienced by consumers in their day-to-day living expenses.
Key Points about CPI:
What it Measures: The CPI tracks price changes for a broad range of items including food and beverages, housing, apparel, transportation, medical care, recreation, education and communication, and other goods and services.
Data Collection: The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) collects about 80,000 price quotes monthly from retail stores, service establishments, rental units, and doctors' offices.
Purpose: It is widely used to monitor inflation, adjust income payments like Social Security, and guide monetary policy decisions by central banks.
Calculation: CPI is a weighted average of prices, reflecting consumer spending patterns, and is updated periodically to account for changes in consumption habits.
Inflation Indicator: The annual percentage change in CPI is a common measure of inflation, indicating how much prices have increased or decreased over a year.
Summary
CPI provides a snapshot of how much prices for everyday goods and services are rising or falling, helping policymakers, businesses, and consumers understand inflation trends and make informed decisions.
The headline CPI rose 0.1% month-over-month, less than the 0.2% expected and down from April’s 0.2% increase, indicating a slowdown in price growth.
The year-over-year CPI increased 2.4%, slightly above April’s 2.3%, but still close to the Fed’s 2% target, showing inflation is near but not fully anchored.
The core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose 0.1% MoM, below the 0.3% forecast and April’s 0.2%, suggesting easing price pressures in most sectors except shelter and some services.
Shelter costs rose 0.3% in May and remain a key driver of inflation, while energy prices declined 1.0%, helping to temper headline inflation.
The Fed will note that tariffs imposed by the Trump administration have not yet significantly pushed up consumer prices, but remain a risk factor that could elevate inflation later in 2025.
Labor market data remain resilient, with unemployment steady at 4.2% and moderate job growth, supporting economic strength but complicating the Fed’s inflation fight.
Policy Implications:
The Fed is expected to hold interest rates steady at 4.25–4.50% in its upcoming June meeting, maintaining a "wait-and-see" approach to assess how tariffs and inflation evolve.
Markets have limited expectations of a rate cut this month but the price in a ~75% chance of a cut by September, contingent on further inflation easing and labor market developments.
The Fed will remain cautious about premature easing given inflation’s stickiness in services and potential tariff pass-through, but the data support a gradual path toward rate cuts later in 2025 if disinflation continues.
In summary: The Fed will see May’s CPI data as encouraging but not definitive evidence of inflation control, justifying a cautious hold on rates in June while preparing markets for possible easing later this year if inflation and labor data continue to improve.
(4)The Federal Reserve will interpret the May 2025 labor market data—Non-Farm Employment Change of 139K (above the 126K forecast), Unemployment Rate steady at 4.2%, and Average Hourly Earnings up 0.4% MoM (above the 0.3% forecast)—as evidence of a resilient but slowing labor market, which supports a cautious approach to monetary policy.
Detailed Interpretation:
Employment Growth Slightly Above Expectations
The addition of 139,000 jobs, exceeding the forecast of 126,000, indicates that job creation continues.
Growth is uneven across sectors, with healthcare and leisure showing strength while government and trade-related sectors have seen declines, reflecting ongoing structural adjustments and policy uncertainties.
Unchanged Unemployment Rate at 4.2%
The stable unemployment rate suggests that the labor market remains relatively tight, consistent with "maximum employment" goals.
However, underlying data show some signs of weakening, such as rising initial jobless claims in late May, which the Fed will monitor closely.
Wage Growth Accelerates Slightly
Average hourly earnings rose by 0.4% MoM, above expectations, signaling persistent wage pressures that can feed into inflation.
Year-over-year wage growth ticked up to 3.9%, reinforcing concerns about labor cost-driven inflation.
Overall Fed View
The Fed sees the labor market as a relative bright spot amid broader economic uncertainties, including trade tensions and slowing GDP growth.
The data suggest the economy is slowing but not collapsing, allowing the Fed to maintain a cautious, data-dependent stance.
Given persistent wage growth and resilient employment, the Fed is likely to hold interest rates steady at the upcoming meetings but remains open to cuts later in 2025 if labor market softness intensifies and inflation continues to moderate.
Conclusion
The Fed will likely interpret this labor market report as supporting a steady policy stance in the near term, balancing ongoing inflation concerns from wage growth against signs of slowing employment gains. Rate cuts remain on the table for later in 2025, contingent on further labor market weakening and sustained inflation declines..
Summary of the three economic data leads the rate hold for now, but cut likely any time soon on the data approach.
#gold #dollar
GOLD Technical analysis.This chart describes a bullish trade setup on Gold (XAU/USD) on the 1-hour timeframe.
Analysis:
Entry Zone: Price is expected to retrace down into the demand zone (around 3360.79) before moving up.
Support Area: The green zone marks a bullish order block or demand zone where buyers previously stepped in.
Target: If price respects the demand zone, the projected target is near 3500.00.
Stop Loss: Placed below the demand zone, around 3337.19, ensuring a favorable risk-reward ratio.
Trade Plan Summary:
Wait for the price to tap into the demand zone before entering a buy trade, targeting the next liquidity area near $3500. If price fails to hold that zone, the trade idea becomes invalid.
GOLD Will Move Higher! Long!
Please, check our technical outlook for GOLD.
Time Frame: 2h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 3,423.03.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 3,467.03.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Gold on the Rise – Will It Break New Highs?Hey traders! What’s your view on XAUUSD?
Yesterday, gold surged over 400 pips and the rally hasn't slowed down. Price is now hovering around $3,428, right below a key resistance above the all-time high.
Why the spike? US CPI came in lower than expected, boosting hopes for a Fed rate cut. The dollar weakened, tensions in the Middle East grew, and central banks are buying gold aggressively.
Personally, I expect a breakout. What about you – will gold pull back or continue its climb?
Drop your thoughts in the comments!
GOLD/USD Bullish Breakout ConfirmationGOLD/USD Bullish Breakout Confirmation 🚀📈
📊 Technical Analysis Overview:
The chart illustrates a bullish breakout above a well-defined resistance zone around $3,390–$3,400. Price action has decisively closed above this resistance, suggesting strong bullish momentum.
🔍 Key Observations:
🟦 Support Zone:
Marked clearly between $3,250–$3,280, this level has held firm multiple times (highlighted with green arrows and orange circles), confirming buyer interest and market structure.
🟦 Resistance Turned Support:
The previous resistance zone around $3,390–$3,400 has now potentially turned into a new support. Price retesting this zone and holding would further validate the breakout.
📈 Future Projections:
The chart anticipates a retest-pullback-continuation scenario:
Pullback to new support 📉
Bullish continuation toward $3,460+ 🎯 if support holds.
✅ Bias:
Bullish as long as price remains above the $3,390 zone. Break and hold below would invalidate the bullish setup.
📌 Strategy Tip:
Look for confirmation on the lower timeframes (e.g., bullish engulfing or pin bar) on the retest before entering long.
Possible to sellFrom my analysis gold possible to going downward because it creating falling wedge pattern
XAUUSD BUYS PROJECTION Hello everyone yup lately I’ve been slacking off on the charts and haven’t taken a Gold trade since we took a loss tho I have been trading other pairs but nothing like Gold so I’m back and fully active and will be giving my all to XAUUSD only and will be updating you guys so this is my buy projection for Gold I will be waiting for a breakout of the 3,400 zone and also wait for a good pullback with our confirmation to take buys to the last ATH we in this game to win it so let’s watch how the chart plays out and will be updating y’all if am taking any entry….
Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD | June 11, 2025Currently, the price is moving sideways within a channel.
🔍 Wave Structure Analysis:
Looking closely at the wave patterns inside this price channel, we can clearly see a series of 3-wave structures developing. Previously, we also observed what appears to be an abc corrective pattern (black), which leads me to suspect that we might be forming a triangle structure as the beginning of a wave 1 sequence (12345 in green).
It seems that wave 4 has already completed, and the price is currently in wave 5. Structurally, wave 5 may take the form of a 3-wave move, and the key confirmation we want to see is a break above 3349, signaling that the top of wave 5 is in place.
☄️ Typically, once a wave 1 triangle completes, the market tends to enter a sharp and deep corrective move in the form of a zigzag.
🎯 Potential Target Zones (based on Fibonacci + Volume Profile):
Target Zone 1: 3352 – 3355
Target Zone 2: 3362 – 3365
⚡️ Momentum Outlook :
D1 Momentum: Starting to turn bullish, suggesting the current correction is nearing completion and we could see a bullish week ahead.
H4 Momentum: Currently in overbought territory – I expect the price to break above 3349, followed by a momentum reversal on H4, which could provide a great SELL opportunity at the upper targets.
H1 Momentum: Is about to turn bearish, indicating a short-term pullback may occur. If this correction fails to break below 3315, the price may be completing wave 5 as a 3-wave structure. In that case, we should wait for H1 momentum to turn bullish and then bearish again to confirm wave 5 completion.
📌 Trading Plan :
🔻 SELL Zone: 3352 – 3355
⛔️ Stop Loss: 3369
🎯 TP1: 3334
🎯 TP2: 3307
XAUUSD: Analysis June 11Positive signals in US-China trade negotiations put pressure on gold. However, escalating geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel and Russia and Ukraine have limited the decline of gold. Today, the market focuses on CPI data released today. If the data is released above expectations, it may force the FED to keep interest rates high for a longer period of time, thereby causing gold prices to decrease. On the contrary, if the data is released below expectations, gold will be supported to increase.
From a technical perspective.
The gold sell signal 3340 - 3342 in the US session last night had a very good profit. Gold declined below 3320 but then increased again and moved steadily above this support zone, indicating that the gold's upward momentum may continue.
Gold rebounds and repairs, is it a shock or a bull market?📰 Impact of news:
1. Geopolitical situation
2. Impact of the US dollar trend on gold
📈 Market analysis:
At the gold hourly level, after the pressure in the Asian session in the morning, it directly fell to the vicinity of 3302. The big Yin effectively lost the lower track of the descending flag consolidation channel. The original 3318 line was the confirmation of the channel counter-pressure point, which happened to be the 61.8% split resistance level at that time. At the same time, it lost the middle track. Therefore, we gave a trading idea of looking at the rebound under pressure and continuing to decline in the European session. As a result, the market directly took a V-shaped wash-up and once pulled up to the vicinity of 3342.
The European session fluctuated strongly and rose. Before and after the US session, it took advantage of the retracement to lure the short position, and there is still the possibility of a second pull-up space. Therefore, in the subsequent retracement support level, pay attention to two positions, one is 3322-3324, and the other is the 61.8% division support level of 3318. If it stabilizes, there is a high probability that there will be a second upward space, pointing to 3348. If the pressure here cannot be overcome, the bottom will continue to oscillate back and forth. At that time, it will fall back to see if a secondary low point can be formed to further stabilize the support. If it goes straight through and stands on it, 3293 may already be the short-term low.
On the whole, I still hold short orders before the effective breakthrough of 3345, but at the same time, as the gold price rebounds and moves upward, the short-term support level is temporarily expected to be 3325-3320.
🏅 Trading strategies:
SELL 3335-3345
TP 3325-3315
BUY 3325-3330
TP 3350-3360
If you agree with this view, or have a better idea, please leave a message in the comment area. I look forward to hearing different voices.
TVC:GOLD FXOPEN:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD FX:XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD
#GOLD Buy 3315.85#GOLD Buy 3315.85
SL 3309.85
TP 3317.85
TP 3325.85
TP 3339.85
Trade at your own risk
Protect your capital
The Wizard 🧙♂️ SWFX
XAUUSD (LONG)
Fib retracment level extreme reached.
Mitigation level price rejected there
Weekly pivot level.
