XAUUSDK trade ideas
Gold market analysis and trading strategiesGold market analysis and trading strategies
Core view: Super sweeping market continues
Large cycle pattern: Gold is in a sweeping stage, lacking trend direction, similar to the long-term shock after the peak in 2011 (lasting nearly 20 months).
Current fundamentals (geopolitical conflicts, inflation data, Fed policy expectations) support this violent fluctuation.
Short-term characteristics: straight upward, frequent V-shaped reversals, rhythm control is more important than direction judgment, and we need to be vigilant against sudden news-induced surges and plunges.
Review of major influencing factors
China-US negotiations: No specific details have been announced, but the market's sensitivity to trade relations still exists.
US CPI data: slightly lower than expected, Trump called on the Fed to cut interest rates by 1%, strengthening easing expectations, which is good for gold.
Middle East situation: The United States evacuated its citizens from Bahrain and Kuwait, the Iran-Iraq crisis escalated, and the geopolitical risk premium pushed up gold prices.
Technical analysis
1. Daily level
Pattern: The big positive line broke through the key resistance level of 3360 points, confirming the short-term bullish momentum.
Support level: 3360-3345-3320
Resistance level: 3390-3395.
Potential path: If it stands above 3360, it may rise to 3400+ (target 3415, 3440); if it falls below 3350-45, the risk of a pullback will increase.
2. 4-hour level
Trend: MACD golden cross, trading volume enlarged, moving averages are bullishly arranged, support level: 3369 (MA5), 3350 (MA60).
Key points: 3360-65 is the watershed between long and short positions. If it holds, the upward trend will continue.
3. Hourly chart
Short-term signal: MACD golden cross, but STO is overbought, be wary of a high pullback. 3362 is the direct support level, and a breakout of this level may lead to a pullback to 3348-50.
Trading strategy recommendations:
Long strategy
Active long orders: enter the market in the 3360-65 area, stop loss of $5 (fall below 3360), target 3375-3388-3395-3405.
Steady long orders:
Long orders at 3345-3350, stop loss at 3339, target above 3360.
Short order strategy:
Short-term pullback: short light positions when stagflation in the 3396-3400 area, stop loss 3405, target 3380-3360.
Trend short orders: layout in batches in the 3413-3430 area, stop loss set above 3440, target 3400-3380 (need to match the top pattern).
Could the Gold reverse from here?The price is reacting off the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 3,390.28
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension.
Stop loss: 3,426.28
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 100% Fibonacci projection.
Take profit: 3,343.57
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
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Gold is rising, beware of a pullback.Since last Friday, the daily line has shown an alternating trend of yin and yang. In the three trading days this week, the lows and highs have been rising continuously, which shows that the short-term trend is strong. Today's intraday trend also illustrates this point. At present, gold has risen directly to the 3388 line, directly refreshing the intraday high again.
From the hourly chart, we must be careful of the possibility of gold diving. From the previous rules, each rise is about 45 US dollars. This time it also started from 3340-3345, and the increase was close to 45 US dollars. Moreover, each time the rise is completed, the dive callback is 35 US dollars. Therefore, once it starts to fall from 3385-3390, it is very likely to reach 3350-3355.
In terms of short-term resistance, pay attention to the 3400 pressure level above; the support level is around 3340. the support level pays attention to the vicinity of 3340.
Operation strategy:
Short at 3385, stop loss at 3395, and profit range is 3360-3350.
XAU / USD 30 Minutes ChartHello traders. Taking a quick look at the 30, we can see my area of interest marked on the chart. Let's see if we bounce off and move back up, move down and stay trading in the range or push back down to the area marked. I am waiting patiently and I am in no hurry to force or rusha trade. We have big new here in under an hour in the US. I am just watching for now. Big G gets my thanks. Be well and trade the trend.
XAUUSD is on fall (rising wedge pattern is on break)H1 & H4 Timeframe
It's time to fall of gold and break of parallel channel. Range area is invalidated and H4 candle close below 3335-3338.
What possible scenario we have?
As H4candle closes below 3335 although last but not least 3325 is the point If that's area break 3325( where we have trendline and lower area of Rangbound) then we'll have proper break of falling wedge channel and I will see gold at 3290-3280 milestone.
#XAUUSD
GOLD 3HR CHARTRelationship Between Gold, Dollar (DXY), Bond Prices, and 10-Year Bond Yields
GOLD ,early sell dropped price from 3328.9 to 3304 .the 3304 align with the ascending trendline and currently trading at 3320.break and close of the demand floor will push for more sell to around 3270-3268
1. Gold and the Dollar (DXY)
Gold is priced in U.S. dollars, so there is a strong inverse relationship between gold prices and the dollar index (DXY).
When the DXY strengthens, gold becomes more expensive for holders of other currencies, reducing demand and pushing gold prices down.
Recently, gold prices dipped about 0.4% to around $3,294/oz as the DXY shed 0.3%, reflecting a cautious market awaiting U.S.-China trade talks and reacting to stronger U.S. jobs data that tempered expectations of Fed rate cuts.
2. Gold and 10-Year Bond Yields
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield and gold generally have an inverse relationship. Rising yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold, making bonds more attractive.
However, both gold and bond yields can rise simultaneously during inflationary periods or economic uncertainty, reflecting inflation expectations and safe-haven demand.
Recent data shows yields near 4.5%, with gold holding elevated levels above $3,300 and attempted 3328 on monday before dropping due to inflation concerns and geopolitical risks, despite some downward pressure from rising yields.
3. Gold and Bond Prices
Bond prices move inversely to yields; when yields rise, bond prices fall.
Falling bond prices (rising yields) often signal inflation or risk concerns, which can boost gold as an inflation hedge.
Yet, rising yields also raise the opportunity cost of holding gold, which can cap gold’s upside. This dynamic explains why the correlation between gold and bond yields has weakened recently, sometimes showing near-zero correlation .
4. Macro and Market Drivers
Inflation and Safe-Haven Demand: Persistent inflation and geopolitical tensions (e.g., U.S.-China trade talks) support gold demand despite dollar strength and rising yields.
Central Bank Buying: Central banks remain significant gold buyers, underpinning long-term price support.
Economic Data and Fed Policy: Strong U.S. jobs reports reduce expectations of Fed rate cuts, pushing yields up and dollar strength, which can pressure gold short term.
Conclusion
Gold prices in June 2025 are influenced by a complex interplay of factors: a slightly weaker dollar recently has supported gold, but rising 10-year Treasury yields and falling bond prices exert downward pressure. Inflation concerns and geopolitical risks continue to underpin gold’s appeal as a safe haven and inflation hedge. The usual inverse relationship between gold and bond yields has weakened recently, reflecting evolving market dynamics and the balance between inflation expectations and real yields.
#gold #dollar
XAUUSD.market target 3380 entry point 3304stop loss 3312Let's break it down:
- Entry Point: 3304
- Target: 3380 (76-point gain)
- Stop Loss: 3312 would be a stop loss above the entry, but you put 3312, that would be 8 point stop loss if it was above 3312. Since 3312 is above 3304 that would mean its 8 point risk.
You're expecting XAUUSD (Gold) to rise from 3304 to 3380. Potential reward: 76 points
Potential risk: 8 points
Risk-reward ratio looks favorable! Let's see how it unfolds!
GOLD Breakout or Fakeout? Thief’s Guide to Safely Rob the Move!🏆 XAU/USD Master Plan: Loot the Bullish Rally Before the Bearish Trap!💨💰
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📈 ENTRY ZONES (4H TIMEFRAME)
BUY: Sneak in at Market Maker’s Buy Zone (Pullback Entries Only!).
SELL: "The vault’s wide open!"—Ambush bearish traps at risky highs (Red Zone).
🛑 STOP-LOSS (THIEF RULES)
Hide your SL at:
Past key lows OR nearest swing low (4H).
Adjust based on your risk, lot size, & robbery multiplier.
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XAUUSD:Sharing of the Trading Strategy for Next WeekAll the trading signals this week have resulted in profits!!! Check it!!!👉👉👉
Gold Market Analysis:
Despite minimal deviation between Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) release and prior figures, gold prices accelerated below the key support level of 3333 during the U.S. session after a period of bearish consolidation. Technical structure suggests further downside potential: the weekly opening gap at 3292 remains unfilled, serving as the first target for bearish continuation. A decisive break below this level could open space toward 3280–3272, with 3280 identified as a strong support zone.
Monday Focus: Prioritize rebound shorting, targeting initial support at 3304–3298.
Key Threshold: Long positions may be considered on failure to breach 3292, with a focus on gap closure dynamics.
Trading Strategy:
Sell@3350-3340
TP:3300-3280
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XAUMO Weekly Institutional Liquidity Map | Supply & Demand Weekly Institutional Liquidity Map | Supply & Demand | Stop Hunt Zones | Tactical Outlook
The market is entering a critical inflection zone this week. Institutional players are actively manipulating liquidity to build positions while retail gets chopped in both directions. Smart traders should focus on liquidity maps rather than signals. Here’s the full kill zone for this week:
📍 Liquidity Mapping
• Market remains under heavy distribution from prior highs.
• Institutional algorithms targeting lower liquidity voids for clean fills.
• Volatility expected to increase as macro uncertainty grows (Taco Trump risk factor).
🔴 Supply Zones (Institutional Sell Areas)
Major Supply Zone
3400 – 3450
Secondary Supply Zone
3320 – 3350
Expect liquidity spikes into these zones to trigger aggressive institutional short entries.
Look for reversal wicks, rejection candles, and volume spikes for confirmation.
🔪 Stop Hunt Zones (Liquidity Traps)
Upper Stop Hunt
3340 – 3360
Lower Stop Hunt
3280 – 3300
Algos will likely run stops above recent highs and lows to trap breakout traders.
These zones are perfect for fading failed breakouts.
🟢 Demand Zones (Institutional Buy Areas)
Primary Demand Zone
3200 – 3250
Extreme Demand Zone
3100 – 3120
Strong probability that institutional buy programs activate near these levels for mean-reversion plays.
Watch volume confirmation, order flow shifts, and reaction strength.
📈 This Week’s Tactical Playbook
• Bias: Short rallies into supply zones.
• Strategy: Fade stop hunts, ride momentum into demand zones.
• Risk Management: Tight stops above liquidity grabs; scale out at key liquidity pools.
#PriceAction #LiquidityZones #SupplyDemand #StopHunt #SmartMoney #InstitutionalTrading #KillZone #Forex #Futures #SPX #TradingViewIdeas
GOLD around 3,425-3,450 is sell for me, WAVE C is on making!I found a comprehensive Elliot Wave count on this entire movement.. The upward movement since the previous heavy drop on Gold is detected as B correction, which is extended to ABC-X-ABC.
And now i assumed that the B is over (or almost done) and we will head to WAVE C.
DON'T MISS IT!!
CHEEERRRSSS...!!!
XAU/USD 13 June 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 23 April 2025
Price has now printed a bearish CHoCH according to my analysis yesterday.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,500.200.
Note:
The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively.
Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
As per my analysis dated 22 May 2025 whereby I mentioned price can be seen to be reacting at discount of 50% EQ on H4 timeframe, therefore, it is a viable alternative that price could potentially print a bullish iBOS on M15 timeframe despite internal structure being bearish.
Price has printed a bullish iBOS followed by a bearish CHoCH, which indicates, but does not confirm, bearish pullback phase initiation. I will however continue to monitor, with respect to depth of pullback.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to continue bearish, react at either M15 supply zone, or discount of 50% internal EQ before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,444.495.
Note:
Gold remains highly volatile amid the Federal Reserve's continued dovish stance, persistent and escalating geopolitical uncertainties. Traders should implement robust risk management strategies and remain vigilant, as price swings may become more pronounced in this elevated volatility environment.
Additionally, President Trump’s recent tariff announcements are expected to further amplify market turbulence, potentially triggering sharp price fluctuations and whipsaws.
M15 Chart:
xau/usdTRADE 3 AS MUCH AS I HATE GOING AGIAST THE TREND IN GOLD I always get caught slipping i do belive that gold needs to have a reversal but im always wrong i would wait for gold to come lower in price range to pull the trigger on a buy just because gold is a mother FU********* and i do see gold is still bullish
Excellent session yesterdayTechnical analysis: Gold remains top tier safe-haven at the moment and prolonged weakness on DX isn’t going in Sellers favor. #3,357.80 (news aftermath) test way above #3,352.80 benchmark test sequence (Gold tests record High’s on Monthly basis) was quiet straightforward, where break of mentioned level has #3,400.80 psychological benchmark as an Buying Target to pursue. Gold didn’t appeared as underpriced since by my estimations, these are fair Technical values on Gold as this could be the first Month lately to close in hard gains. Downwards dynamics should start pressuring smaller charts however (Selling options will certainly appear) as current area should be Traded / Sold between local Top’s (what I successfully did).
My position: I have waited for Gold to Bottom out near #3,318.80 - #3,322.80 and aggressively Bought the Bottom which delivered spectacular returns (monitoring DX on Selling sequence which added significant Buying pressure). Keep in mind that Gold has #3,400.80 benchmark on the cards now as an decent possibility.
XAUUSD Top-down analysis Hello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.