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XAUUSDK trade ideas

July 3, 2025 - XAUUSD GOLD Analysis and Potential OpportunityAnalysis: Today, the NFP report will be released during the US session. Before Asian trading even began, the market saw a sharp downward move. It’s possible that both the Asian and European sessions will remain range-bound until the data release provides a clear direction. Until then, treat 3342–3365 as the primary range and focus on selling near resistance and buying near support within this zone. 🔍 Key Levels to Watch: • 3375 – Resistance • 3365 – Resistance • 3358 – Resistance • 3352 – Resistance • 3342 – Important support • 3337 – Support • 3328 – Key support • 3310–3312 – Intraday key support zone • 3300 – Psychological level 📈 Intraday Strategy: • SELL if price breaks below 3342 → target 3337, then 3333, 3328, 3322 • BUY if price holds above 3348 → target 3350, then 3352, 3355, 3358 👉 If you want to know how I time entries and set stop-losses, hit the like button so I know there’s interest — I may publish a detailed post by the weekend if support continues! Disclaimer: This is my personal opinion, not financial advice. Always trade with caution and manage your risk.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Ombabibi
XAUUSD – Bullish Flag Pattern on the Hourly Chart📌 XAUUSD – Bullish Flag Pattern on the Hourly Chart Gold completed a strong upward move last week and then entered a corrective phase forming a classic bullish flag pattern with a descending channel. 🟡 Currently, price is consolidating within the pattern boundaries. As long as it holds the support area around 3,325, the favored scenario is a continuation of the bullish trend upon an upward breakout. 🎯 Technical target after breakout: 3,419, based on the flagpole height. 📉 In case of a downside break, the scenario will be reassessed. 🔍 This analysis is for educational purposes only and not a trading recommendation.
ICMARKETS:XAUUSDLong
by saal_eliyahu
Report - 2 jully, 2025US Fiscal Policy & Political Outlook: Donald Trump’s sweeping tax and spending bill — dubbed the “big, beautiful bill” — took a major step forward with its razor-thin Senate passage (51-50), thanks to Vice President JD Vance’s tie-breaking vote. The bill extends Trump’s first-term tax cuts, slashes healthcare and social welfare spending, and increases military and border security budgets. It also proposes eliminating taxes on tips and overtime, aiming to galvanize Trump’s core voter base. While the bill now moves to the House, it faces strong opposition even among Republicans. Fiscal hawks are deeply concerned about the bill’s projected $3.3 trillion addition to the deficit over the next decade (according to the Congressional Budget Office). Moderates object to Medicaid cuts, which threaten care for low-income Americans. The House vote will be crucial; if it passes before July 4 as Trump desires, it will mark a major policy victory — but at significant fiscal cost. From a market perspective, this bill’s passage heightens concerns over US debt sustainability, already a major factor in the dollar’s ongoing weakness. Bond investors are bracing for increased Treasury issuance, adding upward pressure to yields despite recent dovish signals from the Fed. Global Trade Dynamics & Tariff Strategy: Simultaneously, the White House is pursuing narrower, phased trade deals as Trump’s July 9 tariff deadline looms. While originally promising 90 trade agreements in 90 days, officials are now prioritizing small, targeted “agreements in principle” to avoid immediate trade shocks. Countries agreeing to narrower deals will escape the harshest “reciprocal” tariffs, maintaining a baseline 10% levy while negotiations continue. This two-track approach reflects both Trump's negotiating style and the complexity of global supply chains. Meanwhile, the EU is hardening its stance, demanding immediate tariff reductions and threatening retaliatory measures on €95 billion of US goods if talks fail. Japan, on the other hand, has stood firm on protecting its rice farmers, refusing to sacrifice domestic agricultural interests for tariff relief. These developments underscore the fragility of global trade flows. Investors should monitor sectors sensitive to tariffs (automotive, electronics, agricultural exports), as policy swings could impact earnings forecasts and supply chain costs. Monetary Policy & Central Bank Positioning: On monetary policy, Fed Chair Jay Powell hinted that a July rate cut is “not off the table,” softening his earlier stance. This flexibility follows Trump’s intensifying pressure for lower rates. Powell emphasized that decisions would remain “data-dependent,” highlighting strong jobs data and manufacturing strength as key considerations. Markets reacted by trimming near-term rate cut bets, with two-year Treasury yields rising. Nonetheless, longer-term expectations still price in multiple cuts by end-2026, supporting a softer dollar and equity gains in large US multinationals. In Europe, ECB policymaker Klaas Knot expressed surprise at the limited economic fallout from aggressive rate hikes, describing the current 2% policy rate as “neutral.” This sets the stage for potential stability in eurozone rates, with the ECB maintaining a vigilant eye on energy prices and trade war risks. Switzerland & EU Relations: Brexit Echoes: Switzerland’s agreement to secure continued access to the EU single market illustrates the tension between sovereignty and economic integration. The new framework would require Bern to adopt EU rules dynamically and contribute €375 million annually to the EU budget — sparking strong domestic debate reminiscent of Brexit tensions. Although offering improved market access (e.g., rejoining Horizon Europe and Erasmus), the deal weakens Switzerland’s direct democracy tradition by mandating rule adoption without a formal vote. The referendum scheduled by 2027 will be pivotal, with risks of economic isolation if rejected. For investors, stability in Swiss-EU ties is critical for sectors such as finance, pharmaceuticals, and industrial exports. A breakdown could disrupt supply chains and reduce Swiss competitiveness. China & Hong Kong Equity Divergence: Hong Kong’s equity market (+20% YTD) is decisively outpacing mainland China’s flat performance. The rally is fueled by flows into tech giants like Tencent and Alibaba, while A-shares lag due to weak consumer sentiment, deflationary pressures, and property market struggles. Mainland retail investors — who dominate A-share turnover — remain cautious amid falling home prices and tepid stimulus measures. Beijing’s conservative policy approach, possibly influenced by US trade tensions, is delaying more forceful intervention. For global investors, Hong Kong presents near-term upside due to its tech focus and valuation attractiveness, but mainland exposure demands caution until broader economic stimulus materializes. Bond Markets & Yield Dynamics: Gilt markets rallied after Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey suggested potential slowing of gilt sales (quantitative tightening), easing supply pressure. Similarly, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s comments on restraining long-term debt issuance supported a rally in US Treasuries, with 30-year yields dipping to two-month lows before rebounding. Global long-duration bonds remain volatile, driven by fiscal policy risks (like Trump’s tax bill) and evolving central bank guidance. Investors should remain tactical, using duration exposure as a hedge but preparing for abrupt shifts in issuance strategy or inflation surprises. Health & Science Innovation: On the science front, a landmark Nature Genetics study highlighted stark differences in how cancer drugs damage healthy blood cells genetically. These findings could pave the way for more personalized chemotherapy, with fewer long-term side effects, especially in children. Such innovations support the thesis of accelerating healthcare sector breakthroughs, reinforcing bullish sentiment for biotech and specialized pharma companies. Market overview: US equities extended gains, with the S&P 500 reaching new highs, while European stocks lagged amid trade war uncertainty. Gold rose above $3,330/oz on renewed safe-haven demand, while Brent crude held around $67/bbl after Middle East tensions eased.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by Buranku
How do we plan before ADP and NFP?📰 News information： 1. ADP data, for reference of tomorrow's NFP data 2. Interest rate cuts and Powell's dovish comments 3. Geopolitical impact on the gold market 📈 Technical Analysis： The market will continue to fluctuate before the ADP data, and the market will continue to rise after the adjustment. In the 4H cycle, the upper rail of the pressure is temporarily suspended, and the Bollinger Bands also close. This is why I emphasize the need to pay attention to the 3323 support line below. At present, gold rebounded, I think it will touch 3348 at most, that is, it rebounded to 50%. Therefore, before the ADP data, I still hold the position of 3340-3350 for shorting, and find support for long at 3325-3315 below. I have marked the pattern of head and shoulders bottom in the figure. I have been engaged in spot, futures, foreign exchange and other transactions for many years. My analysis ideas can be referred to by brothers 🎯 Trading Points： SELL 3340-3350 TP 3330-3325-3315-3295 BUY 3323-3315-3305 TP 3340-3350-3360-3375 In addition to investment, life also includes poetry, distant places, and Allen. Facing the market is actually facing yourself, correcting your shortcomings, confronting your mistakes, and strictly disciplining yourself. I hope my analysis can help you🌐. TVC:GOLD OANDA:XAUUSD FX:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD FXOPEN:XAUUSD
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Allenbrowser-3
XAUUSD-Major Reversal Ahead?14-Years Cycle complete in April2025 Description: Gold (XAUUSD) has completed a significant 14-year cycle with the recent peak near $3,485 in April 2025, following a similar 12-year rally pattern that previously ended in August 2011. The price is now showing signs of exhaustion: RSI on the monthly chart is extremely overbought (85.91), matching historical reversal levels. Strong Fibonacci confluence at 1.0 extension ($3,485) suggests a possible cycle top. Historical symmetry: Prior major top in 2011 came 12 years after the breakout in 1999 — this move mirrors that with a 14-year cycle.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Aryanasif1
Gold falls back, is a bottom structure emerging?In terms of one-hour structure, this round of phased adjustment started from 3450 has not ended yet, but it will soon, especially the rapid rebound after the bottom of 3260 on Monday. This rebound has strong momentum. After bottoming out and rebounding, it is currently fluctuating around 3340, with a large overall span. This also shows that after the price has risen, the amplitude of the correction has increased, which means that the upward space is limited. This adjustment is likely to be over soon, but there is no definite bottom structure yet, so we need to wait for some time. Before going out of the definite bottom structure, based on the principle of following the trend, you can try to short with a light position. At present, in terms of the one-hour pattern, the key point is here at 3355, and it is currently falling back from this position to 3340. If it falls back to the 3320 area today and stabilizes above it, you can operate a long strategy. On the whole, Quaid suggests that the short-term operation strategy for gold today should be mainly long on pullbacks, supplemented by shorting on rebounds. Operation strategy: Short at 3345, stop loss at 3355, profit range 3330-3325. Long at 3320, stop loss at 3310, profit range 3340-3345.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by Quaid_1
Gold continues to rise slowly Gold weekly and monthly level: For the monthly level, many people think that the bull market is over when they see the continuous long upper shadow cross K, and they don’t think that it can’t even effectively lose the 5-day moving average, and it is still in a strong stage in the strong stage, and it is also running on the upper track of the upward channel, indicating that the bull market has yet to continue. If it directly pulls up and engulfs the high point of last month this month, a group of bearish people will be wiped out. It has always been emphasized that you should not underestimate the trend of the past two years, and don’t guess the top. This top will reach a height that everyone can’t imagine. Following the bull trend is the right choice. Holding on to the low-level bullish band bottom position in your hand is the happiest moment in the past two years and the most witnessing moment of strength; and the weekly level, as mentioned at the weekend, don’t look at the big negative last week and lose the lower track of the channel. It is also completely possible to directly come back with a big positive this week. Gold daily level, there has been a continuous positive breakthrough during the day. Once the closing confirms that the breakthrough is effective, it will continue to rise tomorrow and directly approach the lower track of the previous yellow channel. 340 0 line; then going forward, we have to fight for the last key pressure point, the 3500-3452 previous high trend connection line, which roughly corresponds to 3440. Once it breaks through here directly, 3500 will inevitably be unstoppable and move towards 3700; however, there is no need to be too anxious at the moment, be down-to-earth, and overcome the resistance level step by step, but you must try to look far ahead to see more clearly Gold hourly line level: From the opening to now, it has been rising slowly all the way, with a small negative in the middle, all positive, this kind of pull-up pattern must not be tested for shorts, and during the European session, it also broke through the upper rail resistance level of the 3335 downward channel, and there was a second pull-up in the US session; it just couldn't step back, and even the 10-day moving average didn't give a chance. If you want to step back and follow the long position, there is no chance for the time being, and going long directly seems more radical; you can wait patiently, be bullish, and don't go short; if you can confirm that it is above 3335 today, you can try to follow the bullish trend, and the upper resistance target is 3374
TVC:GOLDLong
by jiqeu1
Gold prices are gathering momentumThe key position of the four-hour gold chart dominates the short-term rhythm. At present, the 3300 resistance has completed the transformation to support, and the price remains stable above this position to maintain a short-term bullish pattern. The hourly chart shows that after a strong overnight close, the previous high has been broken in the morning session today. The gold price is expected to continue the offensive and test the core resistance area of ​​3360 at the daily level. The operation strategy is mainly to do more on the callback, focusing on the pressure performance after the price is above 3360. If a reversal K-line pattern appears, a short position can be arranged. Losing the 3300 support indicates the risk of a trend reversal. Focus on the two-way breakthrough signal of the 3300 support band and the 3360 resistance range during the day
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by JoyLouise53
7.2 Gold bulls continue to rise, bears come to an end temporarilFrom the 4-hour analysis, the upper focus is on the 3345 line of suppression, the lower short-term support focuses on the 3314-3316 line, and the key support of 3295-3301 line is focused on. The overall support is based on this range to maintain the main tone of low-multiple participation. In the middle position, watch more and do less, be cautious in chasing orders, and wait patiently for key points to enter the market. Gold operation strategy: 1. Gold 3316-24 line long, retrace to 3295-3303 line to add more positions, stop loss 3293, target 3340-45 line, continue to hold if broken;
TVC:GOLDLong
by AIan_Gold
1
Byt setup tiqgpt MARKET NARRATIVE: Analyzing the provided charts for Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar (XAUUSD) across multiple timeframes, we observe a consistent uptrend from the 1D to the 1m timeframe. The 1D chart shows a recent bullish candle following a series of indecisive movements, indicating potential accumulation by institutions. The 4H and 1H charts display a clear impulsive move upwards, suggesting strong buying pressure. The 15m, 5m, and 1m charts further confirm this momentum with successive bullish candles and minimal retracement, indicating ongoing demand and limited supply. INSTITUTIONAL THESIS: Institutions appear to be in an accumulation phase, driving the price upwards through consistent buying. The lack of significant pullbacks across lower timeframes suggests a strong institutional commitment to higher prices, likely targeting liquidity above recent highs. LEARNING POINT: The consistent bullish momentum across all timeframes without significant retracement indicates a strong institutional presence and a potential continuation of the uptrend. SIGNAL: WAIT SYMBOL: XAUUSD ENTRY PRICE: $3,330.50 STOP LOSS: $3,325.00 (just below the recent minor pullback on the 1m chart, which can act as a short-term liquidity area) TARGET PRICE: $3,340.00 (just below the next psychological round number, providing a reasonable target for institutional profit-taking) CONDITION: Buy on a slight retracement to $3,330.50, confirming continued demand. RATIONALE: Calculated risk/reward ratio of 1:1.7 (Risk=$5.50, Reward=$9.50) does not meet minimum 2:1 requirement. Waiting for better institutional setup with improved risk parameters. STRATEGIES USED: Multi-timeframe momentum trading, targeting minor pullbacks for entry. URGENCY: MEDIUM TIMEFRAME: Short-term CONFIDENCE SCORE: 85% (based on the alignment of bullish signals across multiple timeframes) RISK/REWARD RATIO: Risk=$5.50, Reward=$9.50, Ratio=1:1.7 (Below 2:1 minimum) Risk = Entry Price - Stop Loss = $3,330.50 - $3,325.00 = $5.50 Reward = Target Price - Entry Price = $3,340.00 - $3,330.50 = $9.50 Ratio = Reward ÷ Risk = $9.50 ÷ $5.50 ≈ 1.73 Given that the risk/reward ratio is less than 2:1, the recommendation is to WAIT for a better entry point or adjust the target/stop to improve the ratio.
FXOPEN:XAUUSDLong
by Mistermoriarty