Gold Long Trade Setup Analysis (5H Timeframe - IGSB)📍Gold has made significant moves upwards since January, climbing an additional $300.
📍Currently Gold is showing signs of a reversal, however technicals inform us that this is not yet time for a larger retracement.
📍Below is our previous Gold idea, executed in January 2025 at the break out of a long term triangle pattern. Our entry was $2695, with a target (determined by the triangles range) falls at $3100, just slightly above a key psychological level of $3000.
📍At the moment Gold has not yet tested $3000, an we expect to see this happen before a deeper retracement occurs.
📍As of Friday Gold hit our Entry target of $2840, which was identified by higher timeframe dynamic support (high validity) which falls inline with lower timeframe price structure. The confluence adds confidence to our trade execution. We can, as a result of precise, high validity higher time frame dynamic support add another position onto our original from January. We can do so with a very tight stop just slightly below this dynamic support of 2840 as it is very unlikely to be broken at this time.
Current Outlook:
Risk/Reward = 1:15.8
📈 Bullish Scenario (Breakout Play)
- 🟢 Entry: Price has tested our higher timeframe dynamic support, which represents a significant, highly valid resistance level that is likely to hold its weight. This sits at $2840.
- A bounce from this level would see Gold return to the all-time high price, likely moving beyond this to $3000, $3050, $3100 before a potential larger retracement is seen.
✅ Justification:
- 🔹 Gold broke out of a long term triangle structure which formed between October 2024 and January 2025. This significant price consolidation range once broken gives a rough estimate of a future price target, determined by the height of the range. This when plotted from the breakout point gives us a rough target of $3100, which falls in line with key psychological levels and a more recent fib extension.
📍 Key Resistance Levels (Potential Rejection Zones):
- 🎯 $2880, $2919, $2942 (Previous horizontal structure)
- 📍 Key Support Levels:
- ❗ $2840 (higher timeframe dynamic support)
- 🔻 $2800 (key psychological level)
- 📉 Deeper Target: $3000 - $3100 (Projected based on Fibonacci extensions, previous long term triangle breakout and key psychological levels)
📉 Bearish Scenario (Does not fit our strategy)
- ❌ Invalidation Level: Below $2800
- 🔻 Downside Targets:
We are not shorting Gold at this time. We would wait for another buy, aligning our direction with higher timeframe trend direction.
✅ Justification:
⚡ Key Takeaways:
- 🔹 Gold is yet to test the key psychological level of $3000 which has multiple confluecing endpoints.
- 🔹 The recent fall gives us an opportunity to add to our previous position after testing a high validity higher timeframe dynamic support of $2840.
- 🔹 Gold still remains in a long term bullish direction, therefore we will not consider any shorts.
- 🔹 Expect price to move upwards to test $3000 before a potential higher timeframe reversal.
Previous idea: Gold breaks long term triangle
❗ Fundamental outlook: ❗
📍The recent meeting between former U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy revealed key geopolitical tensions that could have significant implications for gold prices.
❗ 1. Geopolitical Uncertainty and Safe-Haven Demand
The discussions between Trump and Zelenskyy highlighted the ongoing instability in Ukraine. Trump's comments suggested that Ukraine is in a vulnerable position and reliant on U.S. support, while Zelenskyy pushed back against the notion of "playing cards" with his country’s fate. This kind of uncertainty, combined with threats of a broader conflict (Trump warning about "World War III"), increases global investor anxiety, leading to greater demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
❗ 2. U.S. Policy Shifts and Potential Impact on Gold
Trump's remarks indicated that if he returns to power, U.S. support for Ukraine may be conditional or reduced. This could have ripple effects on global markets:
If the U.S. withdraws or reduces military aid to Ukraine, Russia could gain more leverage, intensifying the conflict and causing further instability in Europe.
Increased geopolitical risk would push investors toward gold, historically a hedge against uncertainty.
❗ 3. Economic and Trade Factors Affecting Gold Prices
The second and third images describe how U.S. trade policies, particularly Trump's tariffs, have influenced gold markets.
Key points include:
The threat of tariffs on European goods led to a price drop in London’s gold market, while New York prices surged, creating arbitrage opportunities.
JPMorgan and other major banks are capitalizing on this price discrepancy by moving billions in gold from London to New York.
This suggests that U.S. economic policies, particularly those under Trump, could further impact gold's valuation. If he resumes a protectionist trade stance, increased economic uncertainty could drive gold prices even higher.
❗ 4. Central Bank and Institutional Moves
With banks like JPMorgan and HSBC heavily involved in gold arbitrage, it’s evident that financial institutions are positioning themselves ahead of potential major economic shifts. This increased activity in gold markets often signals expectations of rising prices.
Fundamental Analysis Conclusion
📍Increased geopolitical tensions (Trump’s stance on Ukraine, potential shift in U.S. foreign policy) add uncertainty, boosting gold demand.
📍Trade and tariff policies under Trump could further impact global economic stability, leading to gold being a preferred hedge.
📍Institutional involvement in gold arbitrage suggests smart money is already betting on future price increases.
📍Macroeconomic risks such as potential wars, inflationary pressures, and central bank gold accumulation reinforce a bullish gold outlook.
Outlook: Bullish for Gold
📈Given the combination of political instability, economic policy uncertainty, and institutional gold positioning, the fundamentals point toward continued strength in gold prices. Investors should monitor how U.S. policy under a potential Trump administration could further impact global markets and gold's role as a hedge against volatility.
