XAU/USD finds support at $3,250 - Where to from here?The Gold price rally has halted, as “double-top” candle chart appears to be soon confirmed, which in reverse could send XAU/USD prices toward the $3,000 figure and beyond. Momentum shows that buyers' strength is fading and that sellers are stepping in following a softer-than-expected US inflation report and weaker global outlook as market awaits further confirmation on US-China trade deal.
For a reversal of trend double-top confirmation, sellers must clear the May 1 low of $3,202. Once cleared, the next stop would be $3,100 and $3,000 respectively. However, in the interim, short term support level of $3,250 is holding well with a provisional level of both, natural support and 50% fibonacci level adding an additional cluster zone within that last major range.
Conversely, break above $3,300 will most like add another level of conviction for buyers to face the next resistance at $3,350. If surpassed, the next ceiling level would be an all time high of $3,501 and beyond. However, for gold to appreciate and continue its long term uptrend, new macro catalyst would need to emerge, as markets anticipate and turns to this Thursdays Retail sales and Jerome Powell's Fed speech.
XAUUSDK trade ideas
Gold Surge Driven by Multiple FactorsDuring the last trading day and into today’s Asian session, gold has been rising steadily, driven by several key factors, breaking out of the strong consolidation zone at $3,250, signaling the potential for continued rallies toward the next psychological level at $3,350.
This move is further supported by rising geopolitical tensions and growing concerns over the U.S. fiscal deficit.
Reports indicating that Israel may be planning to strike Iranian nuclear facilities have escalated tensions in the Middle East, raising fears of a broader regional conflict.
Meanwhile, uncertainty remains over the Russia-Ukraine war, as both parties prepare for ceasefire talks. However, the U.S. is expected to take a more passive stance in the process, adding to the ambiguity.
Lastly, concerns over the fragile state of U.S. fiscal health, compounded by the Federal Reserve’s cautious economic outlook and the recent U.S. credit rating adjustment by Moody’s -- which was a one-notch downgrade, have increased investor appetite for gold, reinforcing the yellow metal’s role as a safe haven asset in times of uncertainty.
Gold Bounces Modestly from Trendline Support – But Is It Enough?Gold is holding just above rising trendline and 50-day SMA support (~$3,175), but the rebound has been tepid so far:
📉 Price action: Small-bodied candles reflect indecision
📊 RSI stuck near 50, suggesting a lack of directional momentum
📉 MACD still trending lower, though starting to flatten
📍Support:
Rising trendline and 50-day SMA: $3,175–$3,180
Below that: $3,100 (psychological + former resistance)
📍Resistance:
Initial resistance near $3,300
Heavier resistance back at $3,400+
⚠️ Big picture: The longer gold churns sideways near trendline support, the more vulnerable it becomes. Bulls need a strong move above $3,300 to reassert control.
-MW
Gold (XAU/USD) Intraday Short Setup –Rejection & Resistance PlayTimeframe: 30-Minute
Gold is showing signs of rejection near the resistance zone around $3,236, following a failure to break higher. Price action confirms a bearish reversal signal, aligning with technical resistance from the recent high and a potential overbought condition.
Sell Setup Details:
Entry: ~$3,236
Stop Loss: ~$3,253 (above resistance)
Target Zone: ~$3,204
Bias: Bearish (Short-Term)
Technical & Fundamental Confluence:
Resistance rejection confirmed by price action
Bearish engulfing pattern and failure to hold support
Stronger USD and rising Treasury yields continue to pressure gold
Traders cautious ahead of upcoming economic data (e.g., Fed minutes or inflation reports)
This setup targets a quick intraday move, ideal for short-term traders looking to capitalize on rejection from key levels.
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XAUUSD BULLISH OR BEARISH DETAILED ANALYSISXAUUSD is showing a textbook technical reaction from a well-defined support zone around the 3145–3170 range, which aligns perfectly with previous structure and demand zones. After a sharp retracement from recent highs, gold is now posting a strong bullish bounce, validating this level as a significant area of buyer interest. With today’s push above 3230, this bounce confirms our bullish thesis, and I now expect a continuation move toward the 3500 mark in the coming weeks.
Fundamentally, gold remains one of the most favored assets in 2025 due to ongoing global economic uncertainty, rising geopolitical risks, and persistent central bank demand. With US inflation cooling and the Fed signaling the potential for rate cuts later this year, real yields are slipping, giving gold the macro tailwind it needs to push higher. Moreover, recent data from China shows continued accumulation of gold reserves, reinforcing the long-term bullish case.
Technically, this correction appears to be a healthy retest in a strong uptrend. The market has respected the previous breakout level, and we are seeing early signs of momentum returning. The price action is starting to structure higher lows, and if price clears the 3250 level convincingly, it will likely trigger further momentum-based buying. I’m targeting 3500 as the next major resistance, where we could see some profit-taking.
This setup is one of the cleanest long opportunities on the board. With institutional positioning still net long, and technical and macro alignment pointing higher, I see this as a high-conviction trade. As long as price holds above 3145, the path of least resistance remains up. I’ll be closely watching for further confirmation as we build toward the 3500 target.
Gold Slips with Ceasefire HopesGold declined below $3,320 per ounce as hopes for a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine reduced the appeal of safe-haven assets. The drop followed a statement by US President Donald Trump announcing that both nations had agreed to "immediate" talks, potentially without US involvement, after a conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
On Monday, gold had gained 0.6% in response to Moody’s downgrade of the US credit rating to Aa1 from Aaa, which raised concerns about long-term debt sustainability. However, with geopolitical tensions easing and investors awaiting fresh comments from Federal Reserve officials, gold reversed course.
XAU/USD now finds resistance at $3,250, with further levels at $3,300 and $3,350. On the downside, support is seen at $3,120, followed by $3,030 and $2,956.
XAU/USD 20 May 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 23 April 2025
Price has now printed a bearish CHoCH according to my analysis yesterday.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,500.200.
Note:
The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively.
Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 15 May 2025.
In my analysis from 12 May 2025, I noted that price had yet to target the weak internal high, including on the H4 timeframe. This aligns with the ongoing corrective bearish pullback across higher timeframes, so a bearish internal Break of Structure (iBOS) was a likely outcome.
As anticipated, price targeted strong internal low, confirming a bearish iBOS.
While a bullish Change of Character (CHoCH) has printed, I am exercising discretion and not marking it as such, given the shallow nature of the pullback.
Additionally, another bullish CHoCH has printed, with price now trading within a defined internal range. I will continue monitoring this closely, particularly in relation to the depth of pullback.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to continue bullish, react at either premium of internal 50% EQ or M15 demand level before targeting weak internal low priced at 3,120.765
Note:
Gold remains highly volatile amid the Federal Reserve's continued dovish stance and persistent geopolitical uncertainties. Traders should implement robust risk management strategies and remain vigilant, as price swings may become more pronounced in this elevated volatility environment.
Additionally, President Trump’s recent tariff announcements are expected to further amplify market turbulence, potentially triggering sharp price fluctuations and whipsaws.
M15 Chart:
GOLD: Absolute Price Collapse Ahead! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse GOLD together☺️
The recent price action suggests a shift in mid-term momentum. A break below the current local range around 3,233.07 will confirm the new direction downwards with the target being the next key level of 3,221.68 and a reconvened placement of a stop-loss beyond the range.
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XAU/USD 19-23 May 2025 Weekly AnalysisWeekly Analysis:
Swing Structure -> Bullish.
Internal Structure -> Bullish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 16 March 2025.
In my analysis dated 27 October 2024 I mentioned (below) that price could potentially print higher-highs in order to reposition CHoCH. This is exactly how price printed. CHoCH positioning has been brought significantly closer to current price action. CHoCH positioning is denoted with a shortened blue dotted horizontal line.
The remainder of my analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 09 February 2025.
Price has printed a further bullish iBOS.
Price is currently trading within an internal low and fractal high. CHoCH positioning is denoted with a blue dashed line.
Price Action Analysis:
In my analysis dated 27 October 2024, it was noted that the first sign of a pullback would be a bearish Change of Character (CHoCH), indicated by a blue dotted line. Price's consistent upward momentum had repositioned previous CHoCH much closer to recent price levels as expected for weeks. Current CHoCH positioning is quite a distance away from price, therefore, it would be viable if price continued bullish to reposition ChOCH.
Note:
It is highly unlikely price will "crash" as many analysts are predicting. My view is this is merely a corrective wave of the primary trend.
Given the Federal Reserve's dovish policy stance alongside heightened geopolitical risks, market volatility is likely to remain elevated, influencing intraday price swings.
Price could also be driven by President Trump's policies, geopolitical moves and economic decisions which are sparking uncertainty and potential repricing of Gold.
Weekly Chart:
Daily Analysis:
Swing -> Bullish.
Internal -> Bullish.
Analysis and Bias remains the same as Analysis dated 11 May 2025.
Since my last weekly analysis price has finally printed a bearish CHoCH.
This is the first indication, but not confirmation of bearish pullback phase initiation.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
Price should now technically trade down to either discount of 50% internal EQ, or Daily demand zone before targeting weak internal high, priced at 3,500.200.
Note:
The Federal Reserve’s continued dovish stance, coupled with escalating geopolitical uncertainties, is expected to sustain elevated market volatility, influencing both intraday and broader trend developments.
Additionally, price action may be further shaped by U.S. policy decisions, including measures enacted under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic policymaking could introduce further uncertainty, contributing to the ongoing repricing dynamics within the gold market.
Daily Chart:
H4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 23 April 2025
Price has now printed a bearish CHoCH according to my analysis yesterday.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,500.200.
Note:
The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively.
Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics.
H4 Chart:
Gold(XAUUSD) bearish Friday 16 may 2025Gold relatively moving back to liquidity in my opinion, if you catch this post early you may be able to capitalize on entry at supply area.
If price enters our liquidity zone I will start looking for a reversal pattern. ChoCh, retest, break, entry. Downward continuation to sweep liquidity.
XAUUSD Multi-Timeframe Analysis (1H + 4H Continuation)🔍 1H Structure Recap:
BOS at $3205, followed by a bearish drop to $3120
CHoCH at $3193 signaled a potential shift
We marked a demand zone at $3120–$3140, expecting a buy reaction
🔍 4H Expanded View (Current Chart):
Price gave us a CHoCH, indicating the break of the bullish structure
A clear Supply Zone formed at $3260–$3285
Price recently tapped this zone and got rejected, confirming supply dominance
There’s a larger demand zone around $2950–$3000, which price could target if bearish pressure continues
⚠️ What This Tells Us:
✅ The market is now bearish on the higher timeframe (4H), even though short-term (1H) showed a bullish correction
✅ The supply zone held strong, rejecting price and keeping the bearish trend intact
✅ There’s no strong bullish BOS on 4H yet, so we focus on selling from premium zones
🔮 Trade Outlook:
🔽 Sell Setup (High Probability):
Wait for price to revisit the $3260–$3285 supply zone
Look for rejection or bearish confirmation patterns (like bearish engulfing or M-patterns)
TP levels:
First target: $3120 (1H demand)
Final target: $3000–$2950 (4H demand zone)
🔼 Buy Setup (Lower Probability unless structure shifts):
If price breaks $3285 and forms BOS on 4H, we shift bias to bullish
Then wait for a retest to go long
🎯 Key Levels:
Supply Zone: $3260–$3285
Demand Zone (1H): $3120–$3140
Demand Zone (4H): $2950–$3000
CHoCH Confirmation: Already printed – market is in a correction or downtrend
📌 Summary:
Stay with the bearish bias until structure tells us otherwise. The supply zone is in control for now. Smart traders are patient – let price come to your zone and react.
Daily Analysis: 15‑05‑2025
The easing of uncertainty surrounding tariffs—despite the absence of a final agreement but with parties showing willingness to negotiate—continues to weigh on gold, which typically gains strength during times of uncertainty. Additionally, the decline in geopolitical tensions has influenced price movement.
This morning, gold continues its downward trend, trading around the 3,140 level.
Technically, if the price settles below 3,120, the decline could deepen toward the 3,072 level. On the upside, 3,190 and 3,210 are seen as key resistance levels.
Risk Appetite Weighs on GoldGold hovers near $3,155, attempting to stabilize after falling more than 2% the previous day. The metal trades below $3,200, pressured by improved risk appetite following U.S.-China tariff reductions and upcoming U.S. data releases, including PPI and Retail Sales.
Fed Chair Powell’s speech is also in focus, as markets seek clues on interest rate policy. While the weaker Dollar has lent gold some support, traders remain cautious ahead of potential rate-cut signals.
Key resistance is seen at $3,235, followed by $3,300 and $3,350. On the downside, support begins at $3,120, then $3,030 and $2,956.
GOLD XAUUSD Trade Plan for coming week Chart Analysis Overview:
🔹 Key Level: 3280-3270
> This level acts as the decision point for the next move.
> The price is currently hovering just above it, making it crucial for short-term direction.
📉 Bearish Scenario (Sell Setup)
Trigger: Break below 3270
: Entry Zone: Around or shortly after the break
Targets:
>> TP1: 3225 <<
>> Final TP: 3200 <<
A clean break below 3270 indicates bearish momentum and could signal continuation to the downside, aligning with the previous low structure.
✅ Notes:
Enter only after a 1H candle closes below 3270.
Watch for a possible retest of 3270 as resistance before the drop.
📈 Bullish Scenario (Buy Setup)
: Trigger: Price holds above 3270 and forms a higher low.
: Pattern Forecasted: A retracement followed by an impulse wave upward.
: Targets:
>> TP1: 3350
>> Final TP: 3400
Rationale: If support holds at 3270, a reversal pattern is expected, targeting the previous resistance areas.
✅ Notes:
Look for bullish candlestick patterns (e.g., engulfing, hammer) near 3270.
Avoid chasing if the price shoots up without a clean pullback.
XAUUSD... 4H CHAT PATTERN Here’s a breakdown of your **XAU/USD (Gold vs US Dollar)** **buy trade setup**:
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### 📊 **Trade Setup (Long Position)**
* **Buy Entry**: 3,245
* **Take Profit Targets**:
* **1st Target**: 3,288
* **2nd Target**: 3,330
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### 🧮 **Potential Risk-Reward (Assuming SL at 3,220 for example)**
* **Risk**: 3,245 – 3,220 = **25 points**
* **Reward**:
* 1st Target: 3,288 → +43 points → **Risk/Reward ≈ 1.72**
* 2nd Target: 3,330 → +85 points → **Risk/Reward ≈ 3.4**
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### ✅ **Considerations Before Entering Trade**
* **Trend**: Is XAUUSD in a clear uptrend? Buying the dip or breakout?
* **Support/Resistance**: Is 3,245 a breakout above a key level?
* **Fundamentals**: Any macroeconomic drivers (like inflation, Fed policy, USD strength)?
* **News**: Check for upcoming economic data that could impact gold (e.g., CPI, NFP, Fed minutes).
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### ⚠️ **Recommendation**
Since you didn’t provide a **stop loss**, I recommend setting one to manage risk. If you'd like, I can help you identify a logical stop level based on recent price action or support zones