Gold: Short-Term Elliott Wave OutlookGold: Short-Term Elliott Wave Outlook
Gold is currently displaying a classic Elliott wave pattern, specifically an ABC correction. In this case, the C wave appears to be overextended.
Looking closer, the C wave has completed a five-wave sequence, which often signals the end of the correction. This suggests that Gold could be ready to resume its bullish trend.
In strong trends, these wave patterns create deep pullbacks before the price continues moving in the main direction.
Key price levels to watch:
3356
3405
You may find more details in the chart!
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XAUUSDK trade ideas
XAUUSD at Critical Support – Bullish Continuation or Pullback 🔍 Market Overview
The chart shows a technical setup with clear support and resistance zones, alongside key Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) to guide directional bias.
📊 Key Technical Levels
Resistance Zone: ~$3,445–$3,460
This is a historically reactive area where price has reversed sharply in the past. A breakout above this zone would suggest strong bullish continuation.
Strong Supporting Zone: ~$3,375–$3,390
Currently being tested. If the price holds here, it could act as a launchpad for a bullish move toward resistance.
Support Zone: ~$3,320–$3,340
If the strong support breaks, the next downside target would be this zone, which aligns with the 200 EMA (blue line) — a dynamic support level.
📈 Moving Averages
50 EMA (Red): Currently at $3,345.60, serving as a short-term dynamic support.
200 EMA (Blue): Currently at $3,304.13, marking a critical longer-term support. Price staying above this EMA reflects a bullish bias.
🔀 Probable Scenarios
Bullish Case (Preferred Scenario)
If price holds the strong supporting zone and breaks above current highs (~$3,395), it could rally toward the resistance zone at $3,445–$3,460.
Break and close above resistance may open the door for further upside continuation.
Bearish Case
A rejection from current levels or a break below $3,375 would likely lead to a retracement toward the support zone ($3,320–$3,340).
A break below the support zone and the 200 EMA would shift the structure into bearish territory.
✅ Bias & Recommendation
Current Bias: Cautiously Bullish
As long as the price remains above the strong supporting zone and 50 EMA, bulls have the upper hand.
Look for confirmation with a higher low or bullish engulfing candle before entering long.
Trade Idea:
Long Entry: On bullish confirmation above $3,395
Target: $3,445–$3,460
Stop Loss: Below $3,375 (support break)
THE KOG REPORT - FOMCTHE KOG REPORT – FOMC
This is our view for FOMC, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile, and these events can cause aggressive swings in price.
Our NFP KOG Report worked pretty well apart from it being a Friday and us closing out positions for the weekend only for the move to complete on Monday. For this FOMC we’ll share the levels and potential reaction points on the red boxes as well as the red box target levels. Due to the range, it’s best to wait for the break and also for them to move the price to where they want, then hunt the trade once price has settled.
We have the immediate support level below 3360-55 which if held can push this upside to break the recent high and that 3480-90 level again. Break of that level we have red box region 3330-20 which is where we could get a RIP but that will give us the flip with potential for the order region 3350-55 to turn into resistance unless broken. For that reason, a down move for now could only give scalps for decent captures on tap and bounces.
3320 is the line in the sand, if broken below we’ll get the long from the 3290-95 region which will come next week.
Note, these days it’s only Trump that manages to move the markets aggressively, so this FOMC is most likely already priced in. Not worth attempting the immediate levels so we’ll rather wait for the extreme levels.
RED BOXES INDI LEVELS:
Break above 3395 for 3406, 3410, 3420, 3430 and 3435 in extension of the move
Break below 3375 for 3370, 3366, 3356, 3351 and 3345 in extension of the move
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As always, trade safe.
KOG
Lingrid | GOLD complex PULLBACK from RESISTANCE zoneOANDA:XAUUSD is maintaining its structure above a key upward trendline after a higher low formed near support. The market remains technically bullish while staying above this level, with the recent pullback looking corrective rather than impulsive. Buyers may step in for a renewed attempt toward the upper resistance area. Watch for a bullish breakout continuation above 3,326 toward 3,380 if buyers hold the current support line.
📌 Key Levels
Support zone: 3,305.583 (upward trendline and structure base)
Breakout target: 3,380.000 (resistance ceiling of range)
Invalidation level: Below 3,304.696 (would negate bullish setup)
⚠️ Risks
Breakdown below trendline could trigger deeper correction
Price consolidation may reduce momentum short term
Rejection near 3,326 could signal fading bullish strength
Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩💻
Gold New Update The chart you've shared is a 4-hour (4H) time frame of Gold Spot (XAUUSD) against the U.S. Dollar, showing some clear technical patterns and annotations. Here’s a breakdown and a suggested Trade Plan with Take Profit (TP) and Stop Loss (SL):
🧠 Technical Analysis:
Trend:
There is a strong bullish impulse (green arrow).
A potential bull flag or bullish pennant is forming.
A V-shaped recovery suggests momentum is back on the buyer’s side.
Fibonacci Levels:
0.382 retracement (3,352) was tested but not broken.
Current price is hovering around 3,325, close to 0.5 retracement.
Chart Pattern:
Consolidation after the impulse indicates accumulation phase.
Breakout from the consolidation could fuel another upward move.
Forecasted Move:
The blue arrow suggests bullish breakout continuation.
🧾 Trade Plan:
📈 Buy Setup (Bullish Continuation)
Entry: Around 3,325 (current level)
Take Profit (TP):
TP1: 3,383 (0.236 Fibonacci level / previous resistance)
TP2: 3,450 - 3,500 (next resistance / measured move target)
Stop Loss (SL):
SL: 3,290 (below recent swing low and consolidation support)
🔒 Risk Management:
Risk/Reward Ratio: ~1:2 or better.
Risking ~35 points for potential 60–175 point gain.
XAU/USD) Bullish trand line analysis Read The ChaptianSMC Trading point update
Technical analysis of Gold Spot (XAUUSD) on the 4-hour timeframe, featuring key support and resistance levels, price action projections, and RSI for momentum evaluation. Here's a breakdown of the idea:
Key Points in the Analysis:
1. Support & Resistance Zones:
Big Support / Buying Zone: Around 3,222 – 3,240. This zone has seen previous bullish reversals and is supported by the 200 EMA.
Intermediate Support Level: Around 3,270–3,290, where price might bounce before attempting a breakout.
Key Resistance Level: Around 3,350–3,365. Price must break this area to move toward higher targets.
2. Price Action Projections:
The analysis shows two bullish potential scenarios:
Scenario 1: Price breaks above the resistance level directly and moves toward the target point at 3,535.83.
Scenario 2: A retracement to the lower support or even the big buying zone before a bullish rally to the same target.
3. RSI (Relative Strength Index):
Currently near the neutral zone (around 49), suggesting there's room for movement in either direction.
No extreme overbought/oversold signals right now.
4. EMA (200):
The price is currently hovering above the 200 EMA (3,222.01), which acts as a long-term support and trend indicator.
Mr SMC Trading point
Summary of the Trading Idea:
Bias: Bullish
Entry Zones: Look for long entries at either the support level (3,270–3,290) or lower buying zone (around 3,222).
Target: 3,435.05 initially, then 3,535.83.
Invalidation: A clear breakdown below the 3,222 support level could invalidate the bullish bias.
Pelas support boost 🚀 analysis follow)
Gold next moveAs of May 13, 2025, XAU/USD (gold) has experienced significant volatility, influenced by U.S.-China trade developments, central bank policies, and shifting investor sentiment. Here’s an updated outlook based on recent market activity and expert analyses.
⸻
📉 Recent Market Movements
• May 12 Decline: Gold prices fell over 3% to $2,228 per ounce, marking the largest daily loss since April 23. This drop followed progress in U.S.-China trade talks, which reduced global trade tensions and diminished gold’s appeal as a safe haven. 
• May 13 Recovery: On May 13, gold prices rebounded to $3,254.39 per ounce, driven by bargain-buying as investors took advantage of lower prices. The earlier decline in gold was prompted by a temporary U.S.-China tariff truce that boosted demand for riskier assets and weakened gold’s safe-haven status. 
⸻
📈 Technical Outlook
• Resistance Levels: Key resistance is observed at $2,726 (December 12 high) and $2,790 (all-time high). A breach above these levels could signal a continuation toward $3,009, $3,123, and $3,288. 
• Support Levels: Immediate support is at $2,582 (December 19 low), followed by $2,536 (November low), and the 200-day SMA at $2,511. A deeper pullback might retest $2,471 (September low). 
⸻
🔮 Expert Forecasts
• Citi Group: Projects gold prices to consolidate between $3,000 and $3,300, with a short-term target of $3,150. 
• Jeff Gundlach (DoubleLine Capital): Anticipates a 20% rally, targeting $4,000 per ounce, citing increased market volatility and gold’s role as a safe-haven asset. 
• Société Générale: Identifies potential objectives at $2,250 and $2,360, with a target near $2,460, following a breakout above a multi-year rectangle pattern. 
⸻
🧭 Summary Outlook
Gold’s near-term direction hinges on several factors: 
• Trade Relations: Further developments in U.S.-China trade talks could impact gold’s safe-haven demand. 
• Central Bank Policies: Decisions by the Federal Reserve and other central banks regarding interest rates and monetary easing will influence gold’s appeal. 
• Geopolitical Events: Ongoing geopolitical tensions may drive investors toward gold as a protective asset. 
Given the current technical setup and expert forecasts, gold may continue to test higher resistance levels, especially if supportive economic and geopolitical conditions persist.
Gold delivering excellent Trading opportunitiesTechnical analysis: Gold is consolidating on Hourly 4 chart after it entered my expected #3,342.80 - #3,322.80 Neutral Rectangle zone with #3,342.80 as an possible stop and local High’s. Upper maximum extension can reach #3,352.80 benchmark / Hourly 4 chart’s extension if Resistance breaks. Both ways, I doubt that Neutral candles will last for long as Gold will be ready for another Buying or Selling sequence, where another slide might be in the aftertime. It is important to note that DX found the Support and engaged the spiral recovery (# +0.81%) which can add Selling pressure on Gold. I will use this configuration and observing market closing (closing below #3,312.80 confirms the downtrend extension), where Gold is Technically ready for #3,300.80 - #3,252.80 benchmark test. DX however remains merely Neutral on bigger charts however near Lower High’s peak, adding Volatility on Gold counterbalancing mixed values on Yields. This gives me the impression that Gold has at the moment more probabilities to a Short-term uptrend than break below the Support zone. Gold continues to be contained within parabolic uptrend however isolated within Neutral range for the last #1 - #2 consecutive sessions. Daily chart is on (# +0.58%) switch and represents an cautious fractal. Keep in mind that the Medium-term pattern on Daily chart is an Ascending Channel and Gold is on its Higher High’s decimal zone with Lower levels being a potential Lower High’s Target. Total Neutrality and balance between the Support and Resistance lines is consolidation phase of next major move ahead.
My position: I have expected #3,300.80 benchmark touch throughout yesterday's session where I engaged Selling order on #3,345.80 (entry point). Due news outcome, #3,352.80 was tested which triggered my Stop-loss and left me without any orders. Later on, Gold dipped towards #3,300.80 benchmark (what I did expect) as I managed to re-Sell Gold on #3,322.80 and close the order on #3,307.80. I am without any orders as Gold is Trading within Neutral Rectangle. I will Trade the break-out of values I explained above.
Will gold fall further after its rebound correction?The short-term market is still affected by geopolitical factors, the easing of the Russian-Ukrainian war, and the consensus reached between Trump and China on the tariff war. These factors are all bearish for gold. Gold has fallen rapidly in the short term and continued to fall last night. Yesterday's decline was more than one hundred US dollars, which has changed the short-term upward trend. It will still be the main market for shorts in the future. For our intraday operations, the direction is very clear. Rebound is short. The short-term pressure level focuses on the high point of 3265 as the watershed between strength and weakness. Gold has not been able to stand on 3265 in the short term, which means that the market is still in the rhythm of short-selling. Our intraday layout is also based on 3265. When the rebound reaches the pressure level and the top pattern appears, we boldly short! In view of the release of CPI data in the US market, the current volatility of gold prices has slowed down. On the whole, it is recommended to short on rebounds and long on pullbacks. The short-term focus on the upper resistance of 3265-3270 and the short-term focus on the lower support of 3200-3160.
Bullish Continuation Above $3300Hello, traders
GOLD has gone through a deep retracement in a very strong bullish trend! Currently price is trading below the resistance zone marked on the chart.
If GOLD regains and sustains the $3300 mark we are very likely to retest or even put in a new all time high!
Gold Analysis — TradingView Idea (13-May-2025)Chart Observation:
Gold is currently in a corrective downtrend, forming multiple Harmonic patterns.
The recent structure has created a bearish harmonic pattern again, indicating potential continuation of the fall.
Price has retraced into a supply zone but failed to create a bullish breakout.
Key Levels & Strategy:
Critical Breakdown Level: 3225 USD
Below this level, expect strong selling confirmation.
Breakdown of this support will likely trigger aggressive downside movement.
Target Level: 3135 USD
This is the next strong support zone.
Expect price to reach this level swiftly once breakdown is confirmed.
Pattern Behavior:
Historically, such breakdowns lead to impulsive and sharp declines.
Aggressive sellers dominate after confirmation, leading to quick price drops.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Trading and investing involve substantial risk. Please do your own research or consult with a financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
GOLD🟡 GOLD (XAUUSD) Analysis Update – May 13, 2025
Initial setup published on May 8:
Main bias: Bearish from the resistance level at 3421
Targets:
🎯 1st target: 3288
🎯 2nd target: 3250
🎯 3rd target: 3124
🔍 Current Situation:
Price is bouncing off last week's weekly low (red line at 3241).
A technical rebound up to the 3285 area is possible, which could act as a retest before a continuation to the downside.
The downtrend that started on May 7 is still in play, but a daily close below 3241 is needed to confirm continuation towards 3124.
📌 Key Levels to Monitor:
Main resistance: 3421
Intermediate zones: 3288 / 3250
Critical support levels:
3241 (weekly low – confirmation for further downside if broken)
3124 (extended target if breakdown occurs)
🧭 Possible Strategies:
Aggressive short entry on rejection around 3285, with a stop above 3295–3300
More conservative short if there's a confirmed break and close below 3241
Gold's Zigzag Retreat: Shorts' Comeback LoomsOn Friday, gold rebounded slightly and regained the $3,330 mark during the North American trading session. However, it showed an overall volatile trend throughout the week and closed near the middle band of the Bollinger Bands at $3,325.54. The market interpreted the US-UK trade agreement as an "empty-shell agreement". Coupled with Trump's tariff remarks ahead of the upcoming high-level talks among major economies over the weekend, the risk aversion sentiment has risen again, providing support for the gold price.
The real-time trading signals we provided have been profitable every day. If you don't know how to get started, you can refer to my strategies. 👉🏼👉🏼👉🏼
Judging from the current market structure, during the upward trend that started from $3,200, gold has not experienced an obvious central consolidation and has accumulated strong retracement momentum. Combining with the small-scale trend, the current adjustment is more likely to unfold in the form of a falling zigzag pattern or a rectangular consolidation pattern rather than a strong breakout, as the weekly resistance level has not been effectively digested and there has been no new positive driving force in the market.
Next week, we need to be cautious about blindly chasing long positions and especially give up the illusion of "breaking through the previous high". In the short term, the probability of a retracement is much higher than that of a continuous unilateral upward movement.
XAUUSD
sell@3330-3340
tp:3300-3280
Investment itself is not risky; it is only when investment is out of control that risks occur. When trading, always remember not to act on impulse. I will share trading signals every day. All the signals have been accurate without any mistakes for a whole month. No matter what gains or losses you've had in the past, with my help, you have the hope of achieving a breakthrough in your investment.👇🏽👇🏽👇🏽