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GOLD / US DOLLAR KILOGOLD / US DOLLAR KILOGOLD / US DOLLAR KILO

GOLD / US DOLLAR KILO

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XAUUSDK trade ideas

XAUUSD Gold Approaching Critical Turning Point Elliott Wave Analysis: Extended Subwaves and Final Leg In this chart, the Elliott Wave structure appears to be at the latter stages of a complex Wave 5. The following points summarize the current wave count and structure: Wave V (5th Wave Completion): The market is nearing the completion of Wave V in the higher-degree structure, which consists of five smaller waves (denoted as 1 through 5). The upper resistance zones (around 2,750 - 2,779) signal the end of the impulsive move and the onset of a potential correction. Wave (5) is subdivided into minor sub-waves, with the final minor sub-wave likely pushing the price slightly higher before reversing. Corrective ABC Pattern Expected: Post Wave V, a corrective ABC pattern is anticipated. The chart already shows the ABC structure, and the final leg C could soon begin. The corrective structure might target levels near 2,605 - 2,653, as indicated by the Fibonacci retracement levels (50% at 2,653.535 and 61.8% at 2,649.894). Price Targets and Fibonacci Levels: The Fibonacci levels between 2,605 and 2,653 act as significant retracement zones, providing a roadmap for potential price pullbacks once the 5th wave completes. A price correction to these levels could confirm the start of the ABC correction phase. Resistance Levels to Watch: Key resistance remains around 2,750.091 and 2,779, indicating a potential topping zone for the final wave push. If the market fails to push past these levels, it would reinforce the corrective outlook. Wyckoff Analysis: Distribution and Signs of Weakness In conjunction with Elliott Wave, the Wyckoff Method emphasizes market psychology and supply/demand dynamics. The following insights are derived from Wyckoff's perspective: Upthrust (UT) in Phase B: The chart identifies a potential Upthrust (UT) in Phase B of a Wyckoff Distribution. This marks the final push higher before supply begins to exceed demand, typically leading to a price reversal. The distribution phase is a period when large market participants offload their positions, leading to increased selling pressure as the market tops out. Break of Structure (BOS) and Signs of Weakness (SOW): Multiple Breaks of Structure (BOS) indicate a waning bullish momentum, as prices begin to struggle to maintain higher highs. The Sign of Weakness (SOW) noted on the chart further emphasizes the potential for a bearish reversal, as this is an early signal that supply is overcoming demand. This supports the Elliott Wave view that a correction is imminent. Creek and Testing: The Wyckoff Creek represents a major price trend, and failure to hold above it could result in a return to lower levels, potentially retesting the breakout levels around 2,650. The chart’s suggestion of a Secondary Test (ST) in the distribution phase indicates the market is testing previous highs to assess the strength of the resistance. Short-Term and Medium-Term Outlook Final Upward Push: There may still be a minor upward push as Wave V completes. Expect price action to challenge the 2,750-2,779 resistance zone before reversing. Corrective Phase Likely: A correction is likely to unfold over the next 2 weeks, targeting the 2,605-2,653 zone. This aligns with both Elliott Wave and Wyckoff’s distribution phase indicators. The corrective move could evolve into a larger ABC correction over the coming weeks. Key Support Levels: Should the market correct, the 2,653.535 (50% retracement) and 2,649.894 (61.8% retracement) levels will serve as the first significant support areas. Deeper retracements could target 2,605.868 or even lower levels in case of strong selling pressure, with the 2,421.241 level acting as a major historical support. Conclusion: Both Elliott Wave Theory and the Wyckoff Method align to suggest that the current bullish momentum is losing steam. Traders should watch for a potential top around 2,750 - 2,779, followed by a corrective phase that may take the market back to the 2,600-2,650 area. Short-term opportunities may still exist for upside movement, but the medium-term outlook suggests downside risk as the market enters a correction.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by spacedevil
3
XAU/USD Outlook: Technical Correction Near CompletionElliott Wave Analysis The chart appears to be utilizing Elliott Wave Theory, which breaks down market movements into impulsive and corrective waves. Here's how it plays out: Impulsive Wave (1)-(5): The first wave count indicates that XAU/USD completed an impulsive five-wave structure (labeled 1, 2, 3, 4, 5). In Elliott Wave Theory, impulsive waves align with the primary trend direction. This likely represents the upward movement, suggesting that the broader trend for gold has been bullish over the last few trading days. Corrective Wave A-B-C: After the impulsive wave, the market appears to be entering a corrective phase, labeled as Wave A-B-C. Corrective waves typically move against the main trend, so this correction is likely part of a retracement before another impulsive wave could develop. In the short term, a potential Wave C (the third wave of correction) could unfold, which typically retraces a portion of the impulsive move. This means that a temporary pullback in XAU/USD prices is expected. Break of Structure (BOS) The chart highlights a Break of Structure (BOS), which is a key price level where the market shows a significant reversal or shift in trend. This BOS likely aligns with key levels of support or resistance being broken, suggesting that sellers might have temporarily gained control, causing a retracement or consolidation. BOS on a High Timeframe (H): This could indicate that the long-term bullish structure remains intact, but short-term corrections might occur as the market consolidates around this level. Wyckoff Phase & Accumulation/Distribution The mention of Wyckoff Phase B suggests that the market could be in an accumulation or distribution phase, based on Wyckoff’s methodology. Accumulation typically occurs when large institutions (Smart Money) are quietly buying during periods of low volatility, pushing prices higher afterward. In contrast, distribution is when institutions sell during periods of relatively stable prices, signaling a potential downturn. Since it is labeled "Phase B," it could mean that gold is undergoing an accumulation or consolidation process. Watch for a breakout above the current range, which could lead to another impulsive wave upward. Harmonic Pattern Zones The shaded areas on the chart might indicate potential harmonic pattern completion zones, such as a Gartley or Butterfly pattern. These patterns typically signal reversal points based on Fibonacci ratios. The purple zone might represent an important Fibonacci retracement or extension level where a reversal or continuation of the trend could occur. This zone serves as a critical area for price reaction, either providing a reversal back up or a continuation to the downside. Support and Resistance Levels Several key price levels are noted in the chart that traders should watch for potential entry or exit opportunities: Buy Stop Level at 2,681.565: This could be a planned buy-stop order that triggers when the price breaks through a resistance level, possibly indicating a continuation of the upward movement if the corrective wave concludes and the impulsive trend resumes. Current Price around 2,673.096: The current price level represents a near-term point of decision. If the price breaks above, it could continue upward, confirming a bullish trend. Conversely, if it breaks below key support levels, we could see further downside as the corrective phase continues. Stop-Loss and Leg Protection: There are additional stop-loss recommendations around 2,645.655 and lower protected swing points that align with the previous structure. These stop levels likely coincide with recent lows or key Fibonacci levels, providing protection against adverse movements. Market Sentiment and Key Risk Events Gold’s price movement will likely be influenced by key economic data and Fed speeches next week. Here’s what to watch for: Hawkish Fed Commentary could pressure gold downward as the U.S. dollar strengthens and yields rise. Conversely, dovish signals or weak U.S. data (like disappointing retail sales or softer inflation data) could lead to a weaker dollar, making gold more attractive and pushing prices upward. Next Week’s Plan Short-Term View (Corrective Phase Completion): Expect XAU/USD to complete the current corrective A-B-C pattern, with a potential pullback before resuming the upward trend. This correction could offer buying opportunities around key Fibonacci levels or after price interacts with the identified support zones. Look for Breakout Confirmation: If the price breaks above 2,681.565, it could confirm the end of the correction and the start of the next impulsive wave up. Watch for any breakouts from the current consolidation range, especially if prices start closing above resistance levels. Risk Management: Manage risk by placing stop-loss orders below recent swing lows (like around 2,645.655) to protect against deeper corrections. Consider using the buy-stop setup noted in the chart to catch upward momentum. Long-Term View: If the upward impulsive trend continues after the corrective phase, the next significant price targets could be above 2,700 and potentially higher depending on the broader macroeconomic outlook. In summary, the next week’s outlook for XAU/USD focuses on the potential completion of a corrective wave, followed by a resumption of the bullish trend. Key levels to watch are 2,681.565 for breakout confirmation and 2,645.655 for potential downside protection. Stay updated on U.S. economic data and Fed speeches to gauge any shifts in market sentiment.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by spacedevil
XAU/USD Gold H1 Chart BreakdownElliott Wave Progression: The chart indicates a completed 5-wave Elliott Wave progression. Wave 3 had peaked at 2,702.967, and a corrective phase has begun, following the completion of Wave 5. An ABC corrective wave is likely in progress, where price will retrace toward support levels before resuming its next move. Fibonacci Retracement Levels: The retracement is expected to hit key Fibonacci levels, which act as support areas during corrective waves: 0.34 level at 2,698.043 0.5 level at 2,681.565 These levels act as potential reaction points where buyers could step in for the next bullish wave. A further critical support lies at equilibrium (2,645.655), which represents the 50% retracement of a prior bullish leg. Break of Structure (BOS): On a higher timeframe, there was a Bullish BOS, indicating that despite the current corrective phase, the overall bias remains bullish in the long term. The corrective move should be seen as a retracement, where price seeks equilibrium before continuing its trend. Order Blocks & Liquidity: A bullish order block is identified just below 2,645.655. If price reaches this level and holds, it could serve as a solid base for another bullish leg. Short-term Outlook: A correction toward 2,645.655 is likely before resuming the uptrend. However, if price fails to hold above 2,604.390, deeper corrections could occur, invalidating the bullish setup.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by spacedevil
1
XAU/USD Outlook: Technical Key Resistance in Focus.1. Elliott Wave Theory: Wave Analysis Wave 5 Completion (Top of Impulsive Move): End of Wave 5 marks the peak of the bullish phase, followed by a corrective move (ABC correction). Wave 5 Targets and Invalidations: Expected completion around 2,749 - 2,750 (resistance zone). Further upward movement could trigger profit-taking, invalidating further upward thrusts if price breaks below 2,742. Wave 4 Retracement Level: Key Fibonacci levels: 0.34 (2,707.143) and 0.382 (2,707.749). Price reversal after Wave 5 could retest these levels as a critical buy zone. 2. Wyckoff Method: Distribution and Range Structure Distribution Phase: Smart money is preparing to offload positions, leading to markdown in prices. Phase A to Phase B: Phase A (Initial Selling Pressure): Signs of distribution occur; strong resistance met. Phase B (Distribution): Establishes a range with Upthrust (UT) and Upthrust After Distribution (UTAD) leading to false breakouts. Preliminary Supply (PSY): Key resistance area where institutions sell, creating initial downward pressure. Automatic Rally (AR): Price rebounds within the range, marked around 2,718.091 (support line if market turns bearish). Sign of Weakness (SOW): Early indication of the distribution phase completing; marked near Wednesday or Thursday. Phase C (Expected Breakout): Final test or false break of resistance (UTAD) before a sharper decline. 3. Smart Money Concepts (SMC): Market Structure and Liquidity Change of Character (CHoCH): Potential shift from bullish to bearish expected next week after breaking highlighted structure level near AR. Market Structure Break (MSB): Expected below PSY and AR levels, confirming distribution. Liquidity Grab & Trap Setup: Areas highlighted for liquidity grabs around upthrust points (UT), likely early in the week with potential sharp reversal around 2,750. 4. Key Technical Levels & Patterns Upper Resistance Zone: 2,742 - 2,750 area serves as strong resistance; potential for false breakout (upthrust). Strong sell-off expected if price fails to hold above 2,742. Support Levels: 2,718.091 (AR Distribution Line): First significant support; break confirms markdown phase. 2,707 - 2,700 (Wave 4 Retracement Levels): Critical support for bullish bounce; breach leads to significant decline. Lower Target Levels: Expect price to reach 2,645.655 and potentially 2,638.105 after markdown. 5. Time-Based Projections Monday-Tuesday (Range-Bound, Liquidity Grab): Price may test liquidity above the UT area, hitting 2,742-2,750 range with potential false breakout. Wednesday (Sign of Weakness in Phase B): Price expected to weaken, testing AR levels, signaling a bearish market structure. Thursday-Friday (Bearish Breakout Expected): Anticipate a decisive break lower, entering Phase C and marking clear distribution. 6. Risk Management Strategy Invalidation Point: Bullish scenario invalidated if price breaks and closes below 2,707. Stop-Loss Placement: For short positions, place stop-loss above 2,750 to avoid traps. Take-Profit Zones: First target at 2,718, further downside at 2,645. Next Week’s Trading Plan Short Setup: Look for selling opportunities around 2,742-2,750, especially after false breakouts or upthrusts. Use SOW and CHoCH to confirm bearish entries. Target Levels: Expect price drop to 2,718, followed by 2,707 and possibly 2,645 if markdown is strong. Timing: Watch for reversal around midweek (Wednesday-Thursday) when bearish momentum likely takes control.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by spacedevil
2
XAU/USD Weekly Outlook: Brace for Bearish Momentum Current Market Structure and Phases Primary Phase: We’re in a Wyckoff Distribution Phase moving from Phase B (Testing of supply) towards Phase C (Market confirmation of weakness). Phase B: This phase contains a SOW (Sign of Weakness), where the price has broken support levels, indicating a strong selling interest. Phase C: Expected to confirm this distribution phase as prices break further down, suggesting continuation of bearish momentum. Key Levels Resistance Line (BC Distribution Line) at approximately 2,740.6 - This acts as a ceiling for price; any rally towards this level is likely to encounter significant selling pressure. Support Line (AR Distribution Line) at around 2,714.9 - A key level to watch; if breached, it signals further downside. Elliott Wave Structure Wave 5 Completion: The chart suggests the end of Wave 5 in multiple timeframes, which often leads to a corrective phase. ABC Correction Pattern: Following the Wave 5 peak, an ABC corrective wave is anticipated. The chart projects Wave A downwards with expected retracement up to Wave B around 2,713.32 level, followed by a further drop in Wave C. Harmonic and Smart Money Concepts Bearish Order Block (1H): A sell zone established from previous bearish action, likely to restrict upward movements and signal more sell-offs if revisited. CHoCH (Change of Character): A shift in price behavior from a bullish to a bearish trend, observed in this distribution structure. Retail Stop Loss Zone (4H): Located around 2,705, this is a liquidity zone where retail traders are likely to have stop losses. A move below this level could trigger more selling. Indicators and Oscillators MACD: Currently showing bearish momentum with potential for continued downside pressure. Bearish Divergence: Observed on the oscillator, aligning with the end of Wave 5 and confirming a potential downtrend. Weekly Outlook Summary (Mon-Fri) Monday (M): Expect a potential retest of the resistance line near 2,740.6 before a further drop. Tuesday (T): The beginning of Phase C should confirm bearish momentum with a breakdown below 2,714.9 if selling pressure persists. Wednesday (W): Continuation of the downtrend as the market completes Wave B correction, with a downward bias toward Retail Stop Loss zones. Thursday (T): Expect some consolidation before another leg down to complete Wave C. Friday (F): A probable low for the week as Wave C reaches completion around 2,695-2,700. In summary, the overall sentiment for XAU/USD next week leans bearish, with key levels providing resistance and support cues.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by spacedevil
XAU/USD Intraday Trading Plan: Key Price Levels and Scenarios1. Immediate Key Price Levels Primary Resistance (2,790.115): This is the near-term resistance level to watch. Price approaching this area without breaking it could signal a potential short setup. If broken with strength, this level may act as new support. Point of Control - POC (2,782.227): This level is today's pivot point due to high trading volume in this zone. Price holding above this level suggests bullish sentiment; a drop below signals potential bearish control. Secondary Support (2,773.665): This is the critical support level in case of a downtrend. If price reaches this area and holds, it may provide a buying opportunity; however, a break below indicates strong bearish momentum. 2. Scenarios for Today Scenario 1: Bullish Breakout (Continuation) Trigger: Price breaks and closes above Primary Resistance (2,790.115) with increasing volume, indicating buyers are in control. Target Price Levels: Short-Term Target: 2,795.051 (minor resistance from Fibonacci level 0.272) as the initial upside target. Extended Target: 2,803.705 (High Invalidation Point for Wave 5) – this is a major resistance level with possible volume divergence. It is crucial to monitor volume here, as lower volume at this level could suggest an imminent pullback or trend reversal. Stop-Loss: Set below 2,782.227 (POC), since a move back below this level would invalidate the bullish breakout. Invalidation Point: POC (2,782.227) – a drop below this level may indicate a false breakout. Scenario 2: Reversal at Resistance (Bearish) Trigger: Price rejects near 2,790.115 (Primary Resistance) with weak volume, indicating that sellers are stepping in. Entry Point: Initiate short positions near 2,790.115, ideally after observing bearish candlestick patterns or volume declining near this level. Target Price Levels: First Target: 2,782.227 (POC), where price might find some support. Partial profits could be taken here, as POC often serves as a consolidation zone. Secondary Target: 2,773.665 (Secondary Support) – the next significant support level below the POC. Stop-Loss: Above 2,803.705 (High Invalidation Point). If price surpasses this level, the bearish reversal scenario is invalidated. Invalidation Point: A confirmed break above 2,790.115 would indicate potential upside continuation and invalidate this short position. 3. Additional Key Terms and Concepts Volume Divergence: Monitor for volume divergence at the 1.236 (around 2,802) level, as this could indicate reduced buying interest and signal a potential reversal. Break of Structure (BOS): If the price breaks below POC (2,782.227), it signals a BOS (Break of Structure), favoring bearish momentum. This would confirm a downtrend for the rest of the day. Inducement Wave 3: Part of the current wave structure suggests an inducement, which might attract buyers at Primary Resistance only to see a potential reversal if it fails to break. Point of Control (POC): This is the area with the highest traded volume (2,782.227). If price holds above this level, it acts as a bullish pivot point, while a breakdown signals bearish sentiment. 4. Summary of Today's Plan Bullish Bias if price breaks and holds above 2,790.115, aiming for 2,803.705 as an extended target. Bearish Bias if 2,790.115 is rejected, targeting 2,782.227 (POC) initially and 2,773.665 (Secondary Support) as an extended target. Risk Management: Tight Stop-Losses: Use key levels such as 2,803.705 for shorts and 2,782.227 (POC) for longs to manage risk. Volume Monitoring: Pay close attention to volume behavior, especially near resistance and support levels, to gauge the strength of any breakout or rejection.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by spacedevil
2
XAUUSD 12M 1. Elliott Wave Structure Overview Wave 1 to Wave 5 (Impulse Waves): The chart outlines a classic five-wave impulse structure, indicating a long-term uptrend for XAU/USD. This sequence suggests a series of strong moves up, with each wave climbing to higher price levels. Wave 5 Completion: The fifth wave appears to have reached its final stages, potentially signaling the invalidation extension above Wave 5 if the price moves higher than 3,187.83. This marks the end of the impulsive phase and could lead to a corrective phase (A-B-C pattern). 2. Corrective Phase (A-B-C Waves) Wave A (Initial Decline): If Wave 5 is complete, we may see an initial decline in prices, marking the start of Wave A in the corrective phase. This move typically retraces the preceding impulse and could lead prices toward lower support levels. Wave B (Corrective Rally): Wave B is often a short-lived rally within the larger downtrend and may present a false breakout or inducement for retail traders. This rally can lure traders into buying prematurely, only for the market to resume its decline. Wave C (Continuation of Decline): Following Wave B, Wave C typically resumes the downtrend. This final corrective wave might present a significant buying opportunity as it reaches strong support levels, such as the Point of Control (POC) around the 1,400.00 area, a common zone of equilibrium in the market. 3. Key Fibonacci Levels and Their Importance 0.618 Retracement: Fibonacci retracement levels like 0.618 are crucial for identifying support zones during corrections. This level, marked at around 890.62, is annotated as MUST NOT PASS WAVE 1 INVALIDATION, indicating a strong support area in the corrective phase. 1.236 and 1.618 Extensions: The 1.236 and 1.618 Fibonacci extensions are key indicators of possible trend exhaustion. Specifically, 1.618 at 2,778.78 is noted as the potential maximum for Wave 5, signaling an area of volume divergence where momentum might start to weaken. 4. Volume Divergence and Implications Divergence in Volume on Wave 5: A decrease in volume while prices continue rising (volume divergence) in Wave 5 implies that buyer momentum may be fading. This could be a signal of an upcoming reversal or correction phase, aligning with the start of Wave A in the corrective structure. 5. Break of Structure (BOS) Key BOS Levels: Break of Structure (BOS) marks areas where the market structure changes direction, signaling potential trend shifts. For example, BOS MSS Wave 1 (12M) indicates a structural shift in the first wave that could influence future trend changes. BOS in Wave 3 (Potential Trend Shift): The BOS in Wave 3 may guide the corrective phase. If these BOS levels hold, they serve as critical areas of support or resistance during corrections, guiding potential entry or exit points. 6. Price Levels of Interest Point of Control (POC): The POC, a high-volume node around 1,400.00, represents a point of interest and a key equilibrium area. In corrective phases, prices often return to this level, serving as strong support and a potential buy zone. Premium and Discount Zones: The chart uses premium and discount zones to signify favorable buying and selling areas. The discount zone reflects levels where prices are seen as relatively low, and a buy opportunity might arise. Conversely, the premium zone signals overbought conditions and potential sell opportunities. 7. Market Psychology and Retail Traps Inducement and False Breakouts: Terms like inducement Wave 4 (12M) highlight areas where retail traders may be led to buy or sell at suboptimal times. The fake breakout in Wave 4 suggests that traders might be lured into taking long positions, only for the market to reverse downward. Markup Phase (12M): The markup phase typically occurs when institutional players drive prices higher, accumulating positions at lower levels before pushing the market up. The return to the flip zone indicates where institutional interest often lies, triggering rallies as it becomes a point of interest. 8. Next Week’s Trading Plan Based on the analysis above, here’s a structured plan: Primary Strategy: Seek short-selling opportunities if the chart is entering Wave A of the corrective phase, with the expectation that the market may decline in the short term. Target Levels: Wave A Support Zone: Watch for reactions at the 0.618 retracement level, around 890.62, which is annotated as a must-not-pass zone for invalidation. This area could attract buying interest if the price dips. Wave B Resistance Zone: If Wave B forms, consider this a temporary rally. Short positions might be ideal if the price reaches the premium zone, signaling overbought conditions. Wave C Completion: Look for a significant buy zone if prices reach key levels, such as the Point of Control (POC) near 1,400.00, marked as a point of interest and equilibrium zone. Risk Management: Place stop-loss orders above the invalidation extension above Wave 5 at 3,187.83 to control risk if the wave count is proven wrong. Volume and Price Action: Monitor volume spikes and price action during corrective moves to confirm trend reversals or trend continuations. Summary of Key Points The analysis suggests that Wave 5 may have peaked, with a corrective A-B-C structure likely to follow. The corrective phase provides potential sell opportunities in Wave A and B, while Wave C could mark an ideal buy zone. Use premium and discount zones to identify favorable buying and selling areas, and watch for retail traps like inducement and false breakouts. Equilibrium areas like the POC (around 1,400.00) serve as potential support zones for longer-term buy positions.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by spacedevil
XAUUSD 4H Key Considerations for the 2024 U.S. Election High-Level Observations and Zones Dealing Range (12M-3M) and PMH: This range, marked at the top, represents a high timeframe dealing range and a recent swing high (PMH). The upper boundary, around 2,790, coincides with the inducement wave, suggesting that a strong resistance or potential reversal point could be located near this level if the price reaches it. Inducement and Buy Side BSL: Similar to the previous chart, this inducement level suggests a point where liquidity can be captured, potentially triggering a short-term reversal as retail traders get trapped. The Buy Side BSL (Buy Stop Liquidity) above this range marks where buy-side liquidity rests, which could fuel further upside if price breaks through convincingly. Low Resistance Liquidity Run (LRLR): This zone, around 2,745.95, indicates a low-resistance liquidity area where price may move smoothly, suggesting that any breach here could lead to a rapid price movement until encountering the next major liquidity pool. Psychological Level (PSY): This area likely serves as a psychological threshold where traders' sentiment may shift, offering potential support or resistance. Here, it’s positioned near the lower boundary of the recent range. Point of Control (POC) and Volume Profile Analysis: The POC at 2,731.95 represents the price level with the most traded volume in this range, acting as a significant support or resistance. The volume profile shows a high concentration of trading activity around this level, suggesting it’s a key point for institutional interest. Market Structure and Wave Counts Corrective Structure (Elliott Wave): The chart illustrates an ongoing corrective structure with multiple subwaves labeled (w), (x), (y), etc., suggesting a potential W-X-Y correction. The recent downward movement aligns with this corrective wave, pointing to an extended consolidation phase within a larger bullish setup. Projection of the Motive Phase: After the corrective wave completes, the projected structure on the right shows a potential 5-wave upward sequence (i, ii, iii, iv, v). This projected path, indicated by the labeled wave counts, implies that once the corrective wave completes, a motive phase might drive the price upwards to new highs within the current dealing range. Motive Phase Label: The lower right part of the chart points to a "Motive Phase" which suggests that if the corrective structure plays out and holds above the invalidation point, a bullish impulse might start. This phase typically indicates stronger, trend-aligned moves as opposed to corrective, choppy price action. Key Levels and Fibonacci Zones Discount and Premium Zones: The equilibrium (0.5 Fib) is marked at 2,733.89, a midpoint for potential reversion within this corrective structure. The chart labels a “Discount” zone above this equilibrium level, suggesting a favorable buying opportunity for bulls as long as price remains above key support. 0.382 Fibonacci Level (2,731.95): This level acts as a significant retracement target within the corrective wave structure. Positioned close to the POC, it reinforces this level as a critical area for potential buy-side interest if price revisits it. Premium and Invalidation Levels: The premium area is below the 0 level (2,724.70), which aligns with the invalidation point. A drop below this point would negate the bullish setup and signal potential downside continuation, making it a key reference for managing risk. Strategic Levels for Trading Decisions Bullish Entry Zone: The POC and 0.382 level serve as attractive points for entering long positions, with tight risk management below the invalidation level. These levels, backed by volume and Fibonacci retracement, provide a favorable risk-reward setup. Upside Targets: The primary target for bullish continuation is the Buy Side BSL and Dealing Range high at 2,790.08. If this level is broken, further upside toward the psychological level around 2,803.68 (near the top of the chart) could be expected. Potential Triggers for Reversals: If price hits the inducement level near 2,790 and shows signs of rejection, a short-term reversal could occur. This would provide an opportunity for traders to either exit long positions or potentially enter shorts with stops above recent highs. Additional Notes Volume and Market Sentiment: The volume bars show higher activity at key reversal points, especially during wave transitions, highlighting areas of potential institutional interest. Structural Patterns: The corrective nature of the current price action, combined with the projection for a motive phase, indicates that the market is consolidating within a bullish trend, awaiting a breakout. In summary, this chart outlines a bullish structure with corrective waves currently in play. Traders may look for long entries around the POC (2,731.95) or upon the breakout of key liquidity zones (2,790.08), targeting the dealing range highs. However, the invalidation level at 2,724.70 must hold to maintain this bullish outlook.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by spacedevil
2
XAUUSD: The Rebound Is Not Over YetDue to the impact of the news, gold prices have fallen significantly. When gold prices approached around 2660, I suggested buying within the 2660-2652 range to capture the rebound after the sharp drop. The first wave of the rebound reached a high of around 2678, with a gain of over $20, and those who followed the signal made very decent profits. Currently, gold prices are oscillating in the bottom range, with volatility gradually decreasing. However, the rebound has not ended yet, and there is still room to buy. This rebound should at least push prices above 2680. Tomorrow, we have the interest rate decision, and the market widely expects a 25 basis point rate cut. After today’s drop, gold should not see much more downside in the short term. Therefore, tomorrow’s trading should focus on buying at lower levels. The first key support levels to watch are the 2652-2648 range, followed by around 2639. Overall, the current market environment still holds opportunities, but it's crucial to stay flexible and adjust strategies according to market movements. Patience and risk management will be the keys to successful trading.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Mia-Signal
Bullish bounce?XAU/USD is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and the 78.6% Fibonacci projection and could bounce from this level to our take profit. Entry: 2,714.83 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and the 78.6% Fibonacci projection. Stop loss: 2,685.84 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level that is slightly above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit: 2,759.77 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
VANTAGE:XAUUSDLong
by VantageMarkets