XAUUSDK trade ideas
Next week's gold trend analysis strategy:
1. News interpretation: Fed policy and market sentiment dominate the direction
✦ Review of key factors:
The situation in the Middle East has eased
The safe-haven demand for gold has declined, which is bearish for gold prices.
Fed Focus: PCE Price Index
If PCE data rises → Strengthen interest rate hike expectations → Gold prices are under pressure
If personal spending is weak → Interest rate hike expectations slow down → Favorable gold price rebound
Investors' wait-and-see sentiment heats up
→ There is no panic selling in the market, and it tends to fluctuate downward rather than plummet.
2. Technical analysis: Bearish dominance, pay attention to key support areas
Daily structure:
The bearish trend is clear, and the moving average system turns downward;
The price is running near the lower track of the Bollinger band, and there is a suspicion of short-term oversold;
The 3280-3295 area constitutes a pressure zone, which has not been broken after multiple tests.
Key points at the 4-hour level:
A step-down channel is clearly formed;
Support levels gradually move downward, a typical bearish pattern;
Lower support: 3270 → 3263 → 3250-3245
Upper pressure: 3280 → 3300 → 3310
III. Gold trend forecast for next week
📉 Main trend: bearish, short-term or bottoming out
If it falls to the 3245-3250 area, a short-term technical rebound can be expected;
After the rebound, it may be blocked again in the 3280-3295 range, suitable for short selling;
Unless it strongly recovers above 3310, it will be difficult to reverse the downward trend.
IV. Operation strategy suggestions (core)
Sell on highs 3285 - 3295 Stop loss 3310 Target 3255 / 3245 Layout short orders near resistance
Trend bottom-picking 3245 - 3250 Stop loss 3238 Target 3275 / 3280 Oversold rebound expected, try to buy long with a light position
Aggressive short selling near 3310 Stop loss above 3336 Target 3280 / 3263 Top and bottom conversion resistance level, if the test is not broken, short
V. Summary and Outlook
✅ Conclusion: Next week, the trend of gold will still be "high-short as the main and low-long as the auxiliary", focusing on the game between 3250 support and 3295 pressure level.
Gold has not yet broken out of the short structure, and the inertial decline after breaking 3295 will continue. It is recommended that traders avoid chasing ups and downs, strictly implement stop losses, and remain flexible.
ELLIOTT WAVE XAUUSD H4 update
EW Trade Set Up H4
monitoring the end of subminuette wave ii
subminuette wave ii is going to end in a double zigzag.
Waiting for an accumulation in the price range 3250/3315 before subminuette iii starts.
daily key levels (area)
3315
3275 POC
3250
XAUUSD - Breakdown: Israel-Iran Conflict - RISK OFF Part III missed to Publish my Idea here, I frequently share charts on my X handle for those who would like to follow, @JOHNDOUGHFX
OK let get into it.. I will publish my entire Idea as I did from the start of the sells, it has been quiet accurate but with terrible choppy PA.
FOMC likely a no move event. Rates to stay high due to tariff risks, Gold has been sentiment driven from last week-so Risk ON/OFF dominates.
Israel-Iran talks ongoing → expect noise + fake escalations before a “Deal"
Gold Order Flow zones at 3409 / 3450
Israel–Iran conflict = main wildcard.
Expect sudden headline moves: escalation threats → quick spikes.
But watch for fake outs followed by a “deal” headlines.
That’s your Risk ON trigger.
Buy the rumor, sell the news.
Key levels for OANDA:XAUUSD :
⚠️ Liquidity trap zone: 3409–3415
⚠️ Double top watch: 3448–3450 (psy level)
Below 3400, we could fade toward:
🔻 3350
🔻 3330
🔻 3322
Plan both sides, don’t chase breakouts.
For today's Analysis, Yesterday we have closed a bullish Doji Candle, signaling buyers, even though we broke below today, there was no selling pressure breaking the previous Daily low, and it has reacted close to As we have tapped the 39 Area, and pulled back, 43-45 if defended, will see price push higher into the high 65-70-75 extended Price Points before we can look for sells again.
As Iran - US tensions are now extended for 2 weeks, I believe the typical news escalations will keep price action on the edge, at present the market is sentiment driven with Risk OFF, so plan your trades accordingly. Risk ON can come with any optimistic news, especially a "DEAL"
Cheers and have a good last trading day!!
XAUUSD - Breakdown: Israel-Iran Conflict - RISK OFF Part III 🚨 Trump announces a ceasefire
This likely kills any chance for TVC:GOLD to retest higher sell zones.
No more upside, just continuation plays for the bears, watch for momentum to pick up on the downside. More market optimism means RISK ON - Gold Bearish , DXY Bounce, Stocks Rally.
Watching the markets today, It was like it wants optimism but the drama with escalations and uncertainty kept it where it was all day, I usually avoid Mondays, but now that this has been announced, we will see Market Optimistic and sentiment drive Gold Lower if there are no further escalations than what has already happened, which simply means the US or Iran would have to do more severe damage beyond what has already happened.
We will be back to Fundamentals driving Gold if there is no other major event!
#XAUUSD #Gold #Ceasefire #RiskOn #TradingView #MarketUpdate #Commodities
XAUUSD - Breakdown: - RISK OFF - Gold BearsGOLD has reached my previous analysis target ✅
Now seeing a pullback wave before potential continuation to the downside, keep in mind it is End of Month.
🎯 Pullback Zones:
1️⃣ 3340
2️⃣ Extended: 3350–3356
📉 If no new bullish fundamentals:
Next targets: 3293–3280
#XAUUSD #Gold #TechnicalAnalysis #Forex #Commodities #TradingLevels #MarketOutlook
GOLD - SHORT TO $2,800 (UPDATE)As expected last week Gold climbed into our 'Supply Zone' of $3,347 & rejected as I said it would on our video analysis. It even managed to close below our 'BOS' zone.
The game plan this week is to keep an eye on market structure for further sells. With every pump up we should be looking at how price can sell off again & how we can join the sell trend to profit off it.
6.30 Safe haven disappears, gold loses its luster!Gold did not break through the upper pressure at midnight last Friday. Gold fell directly after opening in the morning on Friday. The bears broke through the previous 3295 support line, and the lowest reached 3255 in the evening. It closed at around 3274, and the daily line also closed in the form of a big Yin line.
From the 4-hour analysis, the upper short-term resistance focuses on the 3295-3301 line, and the 3316 line is focused on. In terms of operation, it is still rebounding and continuing to be short and follow the trend to fall. The short-term support below focuses on the 3250-3255 line. The overall high-altitude participation tone remains unchanged relying on this range. I will remind you of the specific operation strategy during the session, and pay attention to it in time.
Gold operation strategy:
1. Short gold rebounds at the 3295-3301 line, and short gold rebounds at the 3314-16 line, stop loss at 3326, target 3255-3260 line, and continue to hold if it breaks;
GOLD SHORT FROM RESISTANCE
GOLD SIGNAL
Trade Direction: long
Entry Level: 3,380.73
Target Level: 3,335.74
Stop Loss: 3,410.56
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 3h
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
XAUUSD 📉 XAUUSD Technical Overview (15-min TF)
Recommendation: Bearish.
The pair is showing clear downside momentum, with price having broken below recent intraday highs and forming a series of lower highs and lower lows on the 15‑minute chart.
Target:
We are targeting the prior intraday low around 3295, which represents a logical short-term support area and likely liquidity target before price could consolidate or correct.
Bullish TiqGPT setup todayMARKET NARRATIVE: Analyzing the Gold Spot (XAUUSD) across multiple timeframes, we observe a consistent pattern of recovery from a recent downtrend. The 1D chart shows a series of declining peaks, but recent candles indicate a potential reversal or pullback. The 4H and 1H charts confirm this with a clear recovery from the lows, suggesting a shift in market sentiment. The 15m, 5m, and 1m charts show a more granular view of this recovery, with price action forming higher lows and higher highs, indicative of a short-term bullish momentum.
INSTITUTIONAL THESIS: Institutions appear to be in a phase of accumulation after a significant sell-off, targeting liquidity above previous highs to trap late bearish entries. The recent bullish candles across lower timeframes suggest an engineered push to create a bullish sentiment, likely to induce retail traders into the market before a potential larger move.
LEARNING POINT: "1H and 4H show recovery with potential liquidity sweeps above recent highs indicating a shift from bearish to bullish sentiment."
SIGNAL: WAIT SYMBOL: XAUUSD ENTRY PRICE: $3,290.25 STOP LOSS: $3,280.00 (just below the recent swing low on the 15m chart) TARGET PRICE: $3,310.00 (near the previous high on the 1H chart) CONDITION: Buy limit order at $3,290.25 after confirming a bullish continuation pattern on the 15m chart. **RATIONALE: Calculated risk/reward ratio of 1:1.9 (Risk=**0.25, Reward=**9.75) does not meet minimum 2:1 requirement. Waiting for better institutional setup with improved risk parameters.
Market Structure: Recovery from lows on higher timeframes with higher lows and higher highs on lower timeframes.
Momentum: Bullish candles forming consistently across multiple timeframes.
Liquidity: Targeting stops above $3,300, a psychological resistance and previous high.
Strategies Used: Multi-timeframe recovery analysis, liquidity targeting above recent highs.
URGENCY: MEDIUM
TIMEFRAME: Short-term
CONFIDENCE SCORE: 85% (based on current bullish momentum and institutional activity)
**RISK/REWARD RATIO: Risk=$10.25, Reward=$19.75, Ratio=1:1.9 (Below 2:1 minimum)
RISK/REWARD CALCULATION:
Risk = Entry Price - Stop Loss = $3,290.25 - $3,280.00 = $10.25
Reward = Target Price - Entry Price = $3,310.00 - $3,290.25 = $19.75
Ratio = Reward ÷ Risk = $19.75 ÷ $10.25 ≈ 1.93
FINAL DECISION: WAIT The calculated risk/reward ratio is slightly below the minimum threshold of 2:1. Therefore, while the setup shows bullish potential, the current positioning does not offer sufficient reward relative to the risk. Awaiting a better entry point or adjustment in stop loss/target prices could enhance the trade's viability.
XAU/USD (Gold) Breakout or Breakdown Setup – Key Decision ZoneThe Gold Spot (XAU/USD) price action is currently at a crucial inflection point after consolidating in a rising wedge pattern between ascending support and horizontal resistance. This type of structure typically indicates a strong directional breakout is likely, and the current daily candle shows a close below the ascending support, signaling a potential bearish breakdown confirmation.
🔽 Bearish Breakdown Scenario (Confirmed Below 3250)
If price sustains below the 3250 support breakdown level, it confirms a bearish breakdown from the wedge. The height of the wedge (distance between the base of the move and the resistance) is used to project the downside target, giving us key levels to monitor:
Breakdown Confirmation: Below 3250.00
Target 1: 3111.67
Target 2: 2990.31
Projected Downside Target: 2861.24
This move suggests that gold could enter a deeper correction if buyers fail to reclaim the ascending structure quickly.
🔼 Bullish Breakout Scenario (Above 3500)
On the flip side, if bulls manage to push price back above the 3500 level, it would invalidate the current bearish momentum and confirm a bullish breakout. The projected upside targets are based on the same measured move logic:
Breakout Confirmation: Above 3500.00
Target 1: 3621.90
Target 2: 3741.84
Projected Upside Target: 3855.78
A close above 3500 with volume would set the tone for a fresh rally toward new highs.
🧭 Strategy Outlook
Short Bias (active): Entry below 3250; SL above 3300; TP at 3110 / 2990 / 2860
Long Bias (if reversal): Entry above 3500; SL below 3460; TP at 3620 / 3740 / 3850
Always wait for a strong daily candle close beyond the breakout/breakdown levels before initiating any trades
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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XAUUSD – Bearish Setup Following Liquidity Trap and Channel BreaGold has confirmed a bearish setup after breaking down from the ascending trend channel and trapping buyers near 3,390.
Technical breakdown:
Price engineered a liquidity trap above equal highs, inducing breakout longs near 3,390.
The rejection from that level triggered a clear change of character (CHoCH) and subsequent breaks of structure (BOS) to the downside.
The ascending channel, respected since early June, has now been invalidated with strong bearish momentum.
Lower highs are forming beneath key supply zones around 3,340, reinforcing institutional sell pressure.
Bearish bias:
Price is currently retesting a minor supply zone with signs of weakness.
As long as price holds below 3,340, bearish continuation is likely.
Targeting the strong low at 3,261, followed by the next demand at 3,205 if momentum persists.
This setup reflects smart money principles: engineered liquidity, structure shift, and supply-driven order flow.
Invalidation:
A clean break and close above 3,390 with BOS to the upside would invalidate this setup.
30/06 WILL WE SEE A RECOVERY ON THE LAST DAY OF THE MONTH? ↗️GOLD PLAN – 30/06: WILL WE SEE A RECOVERY ON THE LAST DAY OF THE MONTH? ☄️
✅ Macro Context – Focus on USD Debt and Political Pressure
Today marks the final trading day of June, and the U.S. faces a $6 trillion debt maturity from Covid-era borrowings, which may impact USD liquidity and market sentiment.
During the Asian session, gold experienced a sharp drop to the 32xx area before bouncing back and is now hovering near last week's close.
While the medium-term structure remains bearish, short-term signals suggest a potential reversal and recovery.
✅Political Catalyst:
→ Trump is pressuring the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates to 1%-2%, stating he won’t appoint anyone unwilling to ease policy.
→ This raises expectations of future rate cuts, which could support gold prices in the near term.
✅ Technical Outlook – Multi-timeframe Structure
On the higher timeframes, gold continues to correct lower.
However, short-term candles are showing recovery momentum, with buyers absorbing around the 327x zone.
Today’s strategy: prioritize short-term BUY setups aligned with the recovery wave.
✔️Key Resistance & Support Levels
🔺Resistance: 3283 – 3291 – 3301 – 3322
🔻Support: 3277 – 3271 – 3259 – 3247
🔖Trade Scenarios
✅Buy Scalping
🔺Entry: 3272 – 3274
🔹SL: 3268
✔️TP: 3282 – 3288 – 3298
✅Buy Zone
🔺Entry: 3249 – 3251
🔹SL: 3244
✔️TP: 3265 – 3282 – 3295 – 3310
💠Sell Scalping
🔺Entry: 3298 – 3300
🔹SL: 3304
✔️TP: 3292 – 3282 – 3270
💠Sell Zone
🔺Entry: 3327 – 3329
🔹SL: 3333
✔️TP: 3322 – 3310 – 3298 – 3282
⚡️ Final Note
As this is the month-end session, expect possible volatility driven by USD flows and institutional rebalancing.
Gold 1H: Potential Rejection or Continuation PlayGold (XAUUSD) Technical Outlook – 1H Timeframe
Price is currently reacting near 3275, with a potential scenario for either a bullish continuation toward the 3287–3290 zone or a rejection that could push the market back down toward the 3250–3245 support area.
Key levels to monitor:
🔹 Resistance: 3287–3290
🔹 Mid-support: 3270
🔹 Lower support: 3250–3245
I will wait for price confirmation around these levels before considering new entries.
Gold: Resistance Validated, Short at 3340-3350 Tomorrow📈 Gold Trading Recap & Tomorrow's Strategy: Resistance Holds, Short Opportunities Persist
💎 Today's newly updated live short strategy hit the TP target successfully! As mentioned earlier, when gold failed to break the support level, we anticipated it to range around 3330—today's trades were precisely centered on this logic. The 3350 resistance was also validated firmly during the session.
💎 Expect further upside in tomorrow's Asian session—recommend continuing short positions within the 3340-3350 range 🚀
🚀 Sell@3350 - 3345
🚀 TP 3335 - 3325 - 3315
Accurate signals are updated every day 📈 If you encounter any problems during trading, these signals can serve as your reliable guide 🧭 Feel free to refer to them! I sincerely hope they'll be of great help to you 🌟 👇
XAUUSD Technical Outlook – Rebound or Trap?1. Market Overview
After a sharp rejection near the 0.618 Fibonacci level, XAUUSD has pulled back and is now trading around 3,323 USD. Although price has stabilized somewhat, technical indicators suggest this is likely a corrective move within a prevailing downtrend.
2. Technical Analysis
Price Action
XAUUSD is currently hovering near 3,323 USD after a failed attempt to break above the resistance zone at 3,373–3,392 USD — an area marked by:
The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement from the recent downtrend
Repeated historical rejections.
The upper boundary of a sideways consolidation range from early June.
Recent candlesticks show indecision and rejection from higher levels, suggesting sellers are still in control.
Support Zone Behavior
The price recently bounced from the 3,294–3,317 USD range, where strong historical support and the 0.382 Fibonacci level align.
This zone continues to hold, but if broken, could open the door to deeper declines toward the 3,250 or even 3,224 USD levels.
RSI Indicator
RSI remains flat around the neutral zone, indicating a lack of bullish momentum.
No significant divergence or breakout signals are currently visible on the daily RSI chart.
3. Key Technical Levels
Resistance:
3,373 – 3,392 USD: Confluence resistance zone (0.618 Fib + historical supply).
3,435 – 3,453 USD: Previous swing high – key medium-term benchmark
Support:
3,294 – 3,317 USD: Immediate support, holding for now.
3,250 – 3,224 USD: Potential next target zone if bearish pressure resumes.
4. Trade Setup Scenarios.
Scenario 1 – Buy if support holds and bullish confirmation appears
Entry: 3,295 – 3,305 USD.
Stop-loss: Below 3,289 USD.
Take-profit: 3,340 – 3,355 – 3,370 USD.
Condition: Look for bullish reversal patterns (e.g., Bullish Engulfing, Pin Bar) on H1–H4.
Scenario 2 – Sell on rejection from resistance zone
Entry: 3,370 – 3,375 USD.
Stop-loss: Above 3,392 USD.
Take-profit: 3,330 – 3,310 – 3,290 USD.
Condition: Clear bearish rejection candlestick with diminishing volume
Note:
XAUUSD remains in a vulnerable state. The current move may be a technical rebound rather than a true reversal. Traders should watch closely how price behaves around the 3,373–3,392 USD zone in the coming sessions. A breakout could signal a new bullish leg, while another rejection would likely confirm a continuation of the bearish trend.
GOLD GOLD ,different broker different candle close on different time frame, this is dishonesty and it will affect the structure of the market.
GOLD GOLD ,different broker different candle close on different time frame, this is dishonesty and it will affect the structure of the market.
GOLD WATCH buy floor at 3200-3214 and the sell zone which will retest the broken ascending trendline is 3330-3345 zone
GOLD Expected Bearish TrendXAUUSD Gold Bearish Trend Outlook
Gold remains in a bearish trend, with technical weakness confirmed as support was tested on Friday. The metal continues to trade under pressure, driven by investor caution ahead of the upcoming U.S. Core PCE Index — a key inflation gauge.
If the data comes in higher than expected, it could delay Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, further weighing on gold prices. However, if the Core PCE data disappoints to the downside, rate cut hopes in July may resurface, providing a potential support base for gold.
Key Levels to Watch:
Immediate Support: 3365
Major Support Zone: 3350
Resistance: 3295 / 3305
Keep Eye on all data share your idea about this analysis we need support from you Guys.
"The Great Gold Heist" – XAU/USD Master Plan🏆 "The Great Gold Heist" – XAU/USD Master Plan (High-Risk, High-Reward Loot!) 🚨💰
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🎯 The Heist Plan (Long Entry Setup)
Entry Point 📈: *"The vault is UNLOCKED! Swipe bullish loot at any price—but for a cleaner steal, set Buy Limits within 15-30M recent swing lows/highs. ALERT UP! ⏰"*
Stop Loss 🛑: "Thief’s SL hides at the nearest swing low (3H TF: 3250.00) OR below the last daily candle wick. Adjust based on your risk appetite & lot size!"
Target 🏴☠️: 3490.00 (or escape early if the cops—err, bears—show up!)
⚡ Scalper’s Quick Loot Guide:
"Only scalp LONG! Rich? Go all-in. Broke? Join the swing traders & rob slow ‘n’ steady. Use Trailing SL to lock profits!"
📊 Market Status:
XAU/USD (GOLD) – Neutral (But Bullish Sneak Attack Likely! 🐂💥)
"The heist is ON, but watch for traps—overbought zones, consolidation, and bearish robbers lurking!"
🔍 Pro Thief Moves:
✅ Fundamentals Matter! (COT Reports, Geopolitics, Macro Data, Sentiment—check our BIO0 for the full loot list!) 🔗👉🏻☝🏻
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XAUUSD STILL GOING DOWN Look Gold now its start to move on wave 3, so the it going to break the channel and finish wave micro wave 3 (3226) and then and retest to form wave 4 (3254) and then continue down up to 3100 before to start to buy, so keep watching
