Gold Market AnalysisI anticipate that gold will continue its bullish momentum. During the Asia session, I expect price accumulation around 3195–3206. Moving into the London session, we might see a manipulation towards the sell side, aiming to shake out early buyers—so stay vigilant and hold your positions. Finally, in the New York session, I predict a strong distribution phase, pushing prices to higher levels.
Buyers, stay confident and hold strong!
XAUUSDK trade ideas
Is there still a chance for short sellers to make a profit?At present, gold continues to rebound to around 3230, and the intraday rebound has reached $100. Today, both short trades have touched SL, giving back most of the profits of the long positions in the morning. So are there still opportunities for shorts to make profits?
I think there are still considerable profit opportunities for shorts. Although gold has rebounded strongly to around 3230, it will soon face the short-term resistance area of 3240-3245, which happens to be the 38.2% split area when it retreats from 3435 to 3120, so this area has a certain suppression effect on gold in the short term! Then there is the suppression effect of the area around 3260; so I think there are still considerable profit opportunities for gold shorts. As gold rebounds, the short-term support below is raised to 3200-3190, followed by 3175-3165.
Trading strategy:
Consider trying to short gold in the 3235-3245 area, TP: 3200-3190
THE KOG REPORT - Update End of day update from us here at KOG:
What a day on gold. We wanted this to go higher into the order region to enable us to short it in to the level we wanted following the path. Market glitched, we didn't get the move we wanted, completed all the bearish targets for the week but then....we managed to get a nice long trade from the lows into the resistance level above.
Now 3230 turns into resistance with many traders chasing the gap early session likely holding on to trades. As you can see, the red box broke early session, that was the signal to maintain the move into the levels. So we'll stick with it at the moment as long as that 3255 level holds us down. An undercut low takes us into 3190-5 which is where we may see price hold for CPI tomorrow.
All bearish targets done in one swoop!
KOG’s bias of the week:
Bullish above 3310 with targets above 3335, 3345, 3350, 3350, 3362 and 3370
Bearish below 3310 with targets below 3306✅, 3301✅, 3297✅, 3285✅ and 3274✅
RED BOXES (TAKE NOTE)
Break above 3335 for 3342, 3350, 3354, 3365, 3370. 3373 and 3385 in extension of the move
Break below 3320 for 3310✅, 3306✅, 3298✅, 3293✅, 3285✅ and 3279✅ in extension of the move
As always, trade safe.
KOG
It’s the right time to shortUS President Trump recently criticized Fed Chairman Powell again, calling him "slow to act" and emphasizing that the Fed should cut interest rates as soon as possible to support the economy. Trump believes that delaying interest rate cuts may lead to the risk of recession in the US economy, but the Fed still takes inflation and employment data as the core of decision-making, and the two sides have obvious differences in policy positions.
At present, the Fed's interest rate cut expectations have been postponed and the magnitude has been reduced. Coupled with the expectation of rising US bond yields, the gold market sentiment has weakened. The world's largest gold ETF recently reduced its holdings by 8.98 tons to 918.73 tons, reflecting the cooling of institutions' short-term bullish enthusiasm for gold. Technically, gold prices continued to weaken after breaking through key support last week, and the weekly closing was negative, suggesting that shorts were dominant; the daily level was constrained by the 20-day moving average, and the volatile downward trend may continue in the short term. Focus on the 3250-3265 line resistance during the day. If it cannot break through, the $3,200 mark below may face a test.
Gold recommendation: short sell when it rebounds to 3245-3252 range. Target 3230-3220.
Can a V-shaped reversal continue the bull market?🗞News side:
1. Hamas official: If a permanent ceasefire is achieved, control of the Gaza Strip can be handed over
2. Fed Chairman Powell: The Fed is adjusting its overall policy-making framework. Zero interest rates are no longer a basic situation. The wording of underemployment and average inflation rate needs to be reconsidered. PCE is expected to fall to 2.2% in April.
3. Russia and Ukraine reached a ceasefire at the technical level
📈Technical aspects:
Yesterday, the gold price staged a V-shaped reversal and once rose to close near 3244. Although the technical indicators in the hourly chart show a favorable situation, there has been no correction in the current round of gold price increase, and the rise is slow. In addition, the RSI has entered the overbought area, so we need to be alert to the possibility of gold price correction today. Focus on the 3250-3260 resistance on the top and the 3210-3200 support on the bottom.
SELL 3245-3250 TP 3210-3200
If you agree with this view, or have a better idea, please leave a message in the comment area. I look forward to hearing different voices.
OANDA:XAUUSD FX:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD FXOPEN:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
GOLD correction in progress Gold giant cup and handle formation in progress and price hit one of our internal resistance levels with price tagged at $3500 which currently acting at the current ATH, the plan now is to wait for the price correction towards the $2800 zone to complete the mini correction before further continuation towards the final setup target as shown on the chart.
Check out all the previous analysis on Gold that showcase cup and handle outlook.
THE KOG REPORTTHE KOG REPORT:
Last week’s KOG Report didn’t really go the way we wanted! We got the move we wanted initially into the low, then the long upside, but the levels we wanted to short from again were smashed through. We managed to navigate and adapt to the move and after changing the plan on the FOMC KOG Report we ended again with an extremely decent week on Gold.
As we’ve always said, when markets don’t go our way, don’t hold on to hope. If you're in the wrong way, accept your wrong and change your bias, this will not only save your account but together with the right risk management, you’ll be able to come out of the market in positive for the week.
So, what can we expect from the week ahead?
We have some news over the weekend that can open us up with gaps, otherwise Monday should be a ranging day and we’ll see some action Tuesday onwards. For this week we’ve added the red boxes for everyone, the indicator is working like a dream and allowing our traders to scalp, swing trade and day trade across the 15min/1h/4h timeframes. So please take note of them!
The problem we have this week is the structure entails two possible moves by the way they’ve set this up. For that reason, we’ll look at the key levels on the red boxes for the break and close together with KOG’s red box targets and bias of the week, before we commit to the market other than scalping.
We have the key level below 3306-10 support which if held again can push upside this time in attempt to break through the 3330 level and target the 3350-55 and above that 3365 region before a RIP. 3360 is the level to watch, if broken above and supported, we can start again with longs into that 3400+ region, but only on confirmation.
The ideal scenario here for us is a break of this symmetrical pattern in one direction, then applying our trading strategy to it which will confirm the move, we can only do this once it’s broken and then update you with the plan.
For now, we’ll play the red boxes and of course wait for our trusted algo Excalibur to guide us. As always, we will update the wider community as we go through the week.
KOG’s bias of the week:
Bullish above 3310 with targets above 3335, 3345, 3350, 3350, 3362 and 3370
Bearish below 3310 with targets below 3306, 3301, 3297, 3285 and 3274
RED BOXES (TAKE NOTE)
Break above 3335 for 3342, 3350, 3354, 3365, 3370. 3373 and 3385 in extension of the move
Break below 3320 for 3310, 3306, 3298, 3293, 3285 and 3279 in extension of the move
Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
Will the Market Continue to Sink or Rebound?Gold Price Volatility: Will the Market Continue to Sink or Rebound?
💥 Market Outlook:
Today’s market is seeing unpredictable movements, with gold making significant drops and then rebounding sharply in the last two days. Are the recent news developments aligning with the price action, or is it just a major coincidence?
🔍 Technical Analysis:
Looking at the D1 and H4 charts, you can clearly see the breakdown, but gold quickly bounced back to the 325x area and reacted. The 3254–3256 zone is a key level that holds strong for sellers on both daily and H4 candles. If gold continues to hold below this level, the bearish trend remains strong, and another sharp drop could happen before the weekend.
If the 3254–3256 level is broken, the price may push toward the 327x, possibly even the 328x levels. However, this will be dependent on whether this critical support is maintained.
Trend Continuation or Reversal?
From a technical perspective, gold is still in a downtrend, and the current bounce is likely just a retracement before continuing lower. However, in terms of macro news, the USD is continuously dealing with bad inflation data, affecting the recovery of DXY (USD). The market is very sensitive to trap candles, and there may be false breakouts, so proceed cautiously.
There are also some news reports indicating that the US and China have reached a minor détente, but tensions remain around trade restrictions, imports, exports, and the use of rare earth minerals. Things are unpredictable with these two powers. Today, there are updates on tariffs, so keep an eye out!
📊 Key Resistance Levels:
3237
3251
3261
3276
3287
📉 Key Support Levels:
3205
3188
3170
3143
🎯 Trading Plan:
🔵 BUY SCALP:
Entry: 3172 – 3170
SL: 3166
TP: 3176 → 3180 → 3184 → 3188 → 3192 → 3196 → 3200
🔵 BUY ZONE:
Entry: 3142 – 3140
SL: 3136
TP: 3146 → 3150 → 3154 → 3158 → 3162 → 3170 → 3180 → 3190
🔴 SELL SCALP:
Entry: 3160 – 3162
SL: 3166
TP: 3156 → 3152 → 3148 → 3144 → 3140 → 3130 → 3120
🔴 SELL ZONE:
Entry: 3276 – 3278
SL: 3282
TP: 3272 → 3268 → 3264 → 3260 → 3255 → 3250 → 3240
⚠️ Risk Management:
With strong volatility today, manage your risk carefully. It’s essential to adhere to your TP/SL to protect your account. Stay cautious, as there is a lot of unpredictability in the market with the upcoming news.
Conclusion:
Given the unpredictability of the market and geopolitical tensions, it’s wise to trade with caution today. Watch the critical support and resistance levels closely and stay flexible, adapting your strategy based on how the market evolves.
📣 Stay tuned for more updates and trade smart!
Gold (XAU/USD) Analysis: Short Setups Shine in a Tight Market! Hey everyone, Skeptic here! After checking out the market today, I’m zeroing in on XAU/USD (Gold) for some prime short opportunities. 😊 Let’s dive into the charts and unpack why this could be a sweet setup. We’ll start with the Daily Timeframe to get the big picture. 📊
Daily Timeframe: The Big Picture
Gold’s been riding a strong major uptrend, but we’re now in a corrective phase. Here’s what’s going on:
Trend Context: We’ve had a robust bullish trend, with weak corrections and sharp, high-momentum rallies.
Double Top Formation: A double top formed, and after breaking its neckline, we’ve entered a secondary corrective trend.
Key Levels:
Bullish Continuation: A break above the ceiling at 3416.19 confirms the major uptrend’s continuation.
Deeper Correction: A break below support at 3126.75 could push us down to 3019.98.
Recent Candles: They’re getting smaller and tighter, signaling market indecision. The next few days could define Gold’s direction—up or down.
This compression means we need to be ready for a breakout in either direction. Let’s zoom into the 4-Hour Timeframe to find our long and short triggers and understand why this tightness matters.
4-Hour Timeframe: Long & Short Setups
After the first corrective wave hit the 3126.75 support, we’ve entered a continuation triangle pattern. Here’s the plan:
Short Setup:
Trigger: A break below the triangle’s floor at 3206.32 is a solid short opportunity.
Why It Works: This is a continuation pattern, so no extra confirmation is needed—price action leads the way.
Outlook: Red candles have shown more strength than green ones, and the pattern supports bearish momentum from the prior wave, making a downward break more likely.
Long Setup:
Trigger: Wait for a break above the resistance at 3249.68 .
Confirmation: Look for support from RSI or SMA to boost confidence.
Risk Management: Keep position risk low, as the bearish momentum is stronger right now.
My Take: I’m leaning toward a bearish move due to stronger red candles and the pattern’s bearish bias. For shorts, use reasonable risk, but for longs, tighten your risk to stay safe. 😎
💬 Let’s Talk!
If this analysis sparked some ideas, give it a quick boost—it really helps! 😊 Got a pair or setup you want me to dive into next? Drop it in the comments, and I’ll tackle it. Thanks for joining me—see you in the next one. Keep trading smart! ✌️
High probability bullish setup forming (Bullish Market) - ICTPrice has just aggressively tapped into my Daily OTE (Optimal Trade Entry) zone, indicating a potential reaction from institutional players within a clear imbalance area.
Currently, price is interacting with a significant bullish orderblock, and is only a few pips away from a breaker block, adding further weight to the potential for a Smart Money-driven reversal.
Additionally, a BISI (Balanced Imbalance) is present just below, offering structural support and further validating a possible bullish continuation.
This confluence of factors — OTE, Orderblock, Breaker, and BISI — creates a high-probability context for a bullish scenario, with the expectation that price will seek out the liquidity resting above previous structural highs.
I’m now actively monitoring lower timeframes for a Market Structure Shift (MSS) or a confirmed Change of Character (CHoCH) to execute a precise long entry aligned with institutional flow.
GOLD 4H CHART DEEP ANALYSIS - TRADE IDEA📊 XAU/USD Chart Update – 4H Structure
🕓 May 20 – Session Outlook
Current Price: ~3,224.75
Gold is currently ranging just below key resistance at 3,239.97, holding support at 3,210.00.
🔍 Key Levels
🔹 Resistance:
– 3,239.97 (current ceiling)
– 3,264.60
– 3,290.55
🔹 Support:
– 3,210.87
– 3,179.59
-3,154.92
⚖️ Market Read
Price is ranging between 3,210 and 3,240 with higher lows forming, showing bullish pressure building up. EMAs are stacked slightly bullish (5 EMA above 21 EMA), but momentum is still waiting for a breakout.
🔮 What to Watch For:
🟢 Bullish Scenario
– Break and retest above 3,240
– Target: 3,264 – 3,290
– SL below 3,220
🔴 Bearish Scenario
– Rejection from 3,240
– Short idea back to 3,210 or 3,179
– SL above 3,240
🧠 Let the market decide — don’t force anything inside the range.
Breakout or rejection will give the next clean opportunity.
– Sensei 🥋
Gold XAUUSD Possible Move 15.05.2025Key Supply Zones to Watch for Short Opportunities:
3170–3175 Zone:
→ Strong supply area.
→ If price rejects this zone with confirmation (e.g., bearish engulfing, M5/M15 BOS or CHoCH), enter sell.
3150–3155 Zone:
→ Mid-level supply.
→ If price fails to reach 3170 and breaks below this level, wait for a break & retest of this zone for potential sell entries.
📉 Trade Signal (Sell Bias):
Scenario 1 – Rejection at 3170–3175:
Sell Entry: On confirmation at 3170–3175
SL: Above 3178
TP1: 3155
TP2: 3145
TP3: 3125 (final target – next demand zone)
Scenario 2 – Break of 3150–3155:
Sell Entry: On retest of 3150–3155 zone after breakdown
SL: Above 3160
TP1: 3135
TP2: 3125
✅ Confirmation Tools:
Candlestick pattern (e.g., bearish engulfing / M15 BOS)
Lower timeframe structure shift (M5-M15 CHoCH)
Volume spike or momentum fade at zone
Kindly follow, comment, like and share.
Gold - Bearish Scenario Still in Play
🟡 GOLD INTRADAY – Phase-Based Strategy
🔴 Current Zone: Below $3,205
📉 Price is reacting to a key resistance area, indicating a potential short-term corrective phase.
🔍 Multi-Zone Analysis
🟣 Resistance Zone
↗️ $3,265 – $3,425
Several rejection attempts at this zone — strong selling pressure detected.
🟢 Support Zones
↘️ $3,050 – $3,080 (Phase 1)
↘️ $2,890 – $2,930 (Phase 2 – potential extension if broken)
📊 Intraday Scenario
🔽 If rejection below $3,205 is confirmed:
Phase 1: Short-term target towards $3,050 – $3,080
Phase 2: Further downside potential if this zone breaks
🔼 On the other hand, a move back above $3,265 would invalidate the bearish pressure and reopen the path towards $3,320 – $3,425
⚠️ Stay cautious of macroeconomic events and USD movements.
Gold remains highly sensitive to major economic announcements.
💬 Drop a boost if you agree with the setup & share your plan, preferred levels, or alternative scenario below 👇
Moody's downgrade hits the US dollar!In today's Asian session, gold rose slightly after opening and then turned down, falling to a low of $3204/ounce before rebounding, and consolidating in a narrow range of 3210-3220. After entering the European session, gold strengthened, reaching a high of around $3239. Technically, the 2-hour MACD indicator formed a golden cross, and the gold price has stabilized on the middle track on the 3-hour chart, but the 2-hour Bollinger band opening narrowed, indicating that the price fluctuation space is limited. Based on the current trend, it is recommended to adopt a buy on dip strategy.
Operation strategy:
Gold is recommended to buy near 3225 when it falls back, with a stop loss at 3202, and a target of 3235-3245. Hold if it breaks.
GOLD 21/05 – FED'S HAWKISH STANCE VS. TECHNICAL LEVELSGOLD MARKET UPDATE 21/05 – FED'S HAWKISH STANCE VS. TECHNICAL LEVELS – BIG MOVE AHEAD?
Gold’s recent rally has paused as traders weigh the latest signals from the Federal Reserve. Despite geopolitical tensions and softer U.S. economic data, the Fed is sticking with a "higher-for-longer" interest rate policy, which has kept the U.S. dollar strong and put pressure on gold’s price action.
📉 However, the technical outlook suggests a different story.
⚙️ TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Is It A Bearish Trap Or A Hidden Bullish Opportunity?
Looking at the 1H timeframe, XAU/USD is consolidating after reaching a major Fair Value Gap (FVG) between 3328–3356. This zone reveals significant volatility and potential liquidity grabs, with two key FVG zones forming above and below the current price levels.
There’s a potential bullish scenario if gold retraces to the 3250–3252 support zone, where strong trendline confluence and dynamic support are likely to drive demand.
On the flip side, any rejection from the 3354–3356 SELL ZONE could initiate a bearish trend, pushing gold lower to test key structural support levels.
💹 TRADING STRATEGY FOR TODAY:
🔵 BUY ZONE
Entry: 3252–3250
Stop Loss: 3246
Take Profit:
3256 – 3260 – 3264 – 3268 – 3272 – 3280 – 3300 – ???
🔵 BUY SCALP
Entry: 3277–3275
Stop Loss: 3272
Take Profit:
3280 – 3284 – 3288 – 3292 – 3296 – 3300
🔻 SELL ZONE
Entry: 3354–3356
Stop Loss: 3360
Take Profit:
3350 – 3346 – 3342 – 3338 – 3334 – 3330 – 3320
🔻 SELL SCALP
Entry: 3328–3330
Stop Loss: 3334
Take Profit:
3324 – 3320 – 3316 – 3310 – 3305 – 3300
🌍 MACRO INSIGHT
The Fed’s hawkish stance continues to weigh on gold, but geopolitical uncertainty and ongoing de-dollarization trends maintain gold’s appeal.
China, along with other central banks, is still actively accumulating gold, signaling that long-term bullish pressure remains intact.
Keep an eye on U.S. data this week, especially PMI and jobless claims, as these could act as short-term catalysts for gold.
📌 KEY NOTES
Volatility is increasing, so stay disciplined. Stick to your key levels and manage risk effectively. Patience and strategy will be key as the market moves in the coming days.
Stay alert and trade wisely!
GOLD - Price can break support level and continue to declineHi guys, this is my overview for XAUUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Recently price entered to triangle, where it at once bounced from support line, which coincided with support level.
Price rose to resistance line, breaking $3400 level, but soon turned around and dropped below, breaking this level again.
Next, Gold made a gap and continued to fall in a triangle, and later it reached $3215 level, after which bounced up.
Then price exited from triangle, rose to $3400 level and made fake breakout, after which started to decline in falling channel.
In channel, price fell to $3215 level, where at the moment continued to trades close and trying to break this level.
I think Gold can break this level and continue to fall in a falling channel to $3140
If this post is useful to you, you can support me with like/boost and advice in comments❤️