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GOLD / US DOLLAR KILOGOLD / US DOLLAR KILOGOLD / US DOLLAR KILO

GOLD / US DOLLAR KILO

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XAUUSDK trade ideas

Gold Update – The Reversal Is Still in PlayYesterday’s price action confirmed what we’ve been discussing in recent updates: the upside is vulnerable, and the real move could be lower. Gold did push toward the 3400 zone, as expected — but that test was short-lived. Sellers stepped in aggressively, and price dropped back toward the 3350 support zone, closing the day with a bearish engulfing candle on the daily chart. Will we have a new leg down? That’s the big question now. While bulls are hoping for continuation, the current rebound is weak and seems to be shaping into a bear flag. Why I Expect More Downside: - Strong rejection from 3400 key level - Daily chart printed a bearish engulfing - Rebound structure looks corrective, not impulsive Trading Plan: I continue to look for selling opportunities on spikes, especially near resistance levels like 3375–3385. If the 3340-3350 zone falls, I expect down acceleration and a drop even to 3200 zone. Disclosure: I am part of TradeNation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
TRADENATION:XAUUSDShort
by Mihai_Iacob
10
Lingrid | GOLD trend Continuation Targets April High RetestOANDA:XAUUSD has reclaimed the 3,350 level following a successful retest of the upward trendline, sustaining a bullish channel structure. After multiple breakouts and a clean consolidation above previous resistance, price is setting up for a potential move toward the 3,500 mark. A pullback and bounce near 3,330 would reinforce this bullish continuation scenario. 📈 Key Levels Buy zone: 3,338–3,345 Buy trigger: strong bullish candle above 3,365 Target: 3,500 Sell trigger: break below 3,338 with volume 💡 Risks Rejection near 3,365 could delay breakout Breakdown below 3,338 weakens bullish trend Consolidation flattening may reduce momentum burst potential Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩‍💻
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Lingrid
18
Gold rises to 3400 and becomes the next breakthrough pointGold continued to rise during the day, then fell sharply and entered a clear upward trend after a wave of wash-out. The expected target for the week was gradually realized - the 3370 line has been broken, and the next core target is the 3400 mark. From a technical perspective, the daily line closed with a large positive column on Wednesday and stood firmly on the Bollinger middle track. The moving average system is in an upward divergent state. Under the strong pattern, it is expected to further challenge the Bollinger upper track high point near 3400; the H4 cycle is due to the current round of Bollinger opening enlarged, or continue the unilateral upward rhythm. Gold recommendation: light position long at the current price of 3360, and cover the position when it falls back to around 3350. Stop loss 3343 target 3390
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by CamilleIsaiah
1
High-level chasing risk warningObservation of the hourly gold K-line pattern shows that the current price is still in a fluctuating upward channel. Based on this technical feature, if subsequent data is favorable and pushes gold prices further up, it may form a trading opportunity to arrange short orders at a staged high level. It is important to note that although the gold price surged rapidly after the data was released, it has shown a significant first-line resistance effect in the historical trading intensive range of 3400-3410. Considering that the bullish momentum has not yet broken through the technical conditions of this key pressure zone at this stage, the technical correction of the price after the surge is in line with the logic of price behavior. At the specific operational level, it is recommended to adopt a trading strategy of low-long and high-short with the trend. In the short term, it is recommended to establish short orders when the gold price rebounds to the 3405-3410 area Operation strategy: 1. It is recommended to short gold near the rebound of 3405-3410, with a stop loss at 3418 and a target of 3380-3360;
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by BarnettWolf
1
Gold prices still maintain a wide range of fluctuations: 3300-33Gold prices still maintain a wide range of fluctuations: 3300-3360 Key points: Resistance level: 3338 (yesterday's high), 3350 (psychological barrier), 3360-3362 (Fibonacci 61.8% strong resistance level) Support level: 3315-3318 (Asian market retracement area), 3292 (yesterday's low), 3308 (stop loss reference) Intraday operation strategy 1. High-altitude is the main (priority strategy) Entry area: Near 3340-3350 (close to yesterday's high of 3338, initial resistance level) Above 3360 (opportunity to cover positions, strict stop loss) 3360-3362 (strong resistance area, ideal high-altitude position) Stop loss: 3365 Target: 3330→3320→3315 (gradually stop profit) 2: Low-level long positions as auxiliary (participate cautiously) Entry area: 3315-3318 (Asian session support range, light position try to go long) Near 3292 (yesterday's low, steady long position) Stop loss: 3308 (3315 long position) or 3285 (3292 long position) Target: 3335→3348 (rebound high point exit in batches) Logic and risk control points The core of the volatile market: Prices fluctuate in the range of 3292-3360, avoid chasing up and selling down, and wait for reversal operations near the boundary. If the Asian and European sessions rebound first, it is safer to go long at the highs before and after the US session; if it falls to the support level first, it can go long in the short term to rebound. Key signals: Break through 3362 points: may break through the oscillating pattern and turn strong, need to wait and see whether to follow up with long positions. Fall below 3290: beware of deep correction, long positions are temporarily suspended.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Emily990099
1
Gold hits 3400. What is Wall Street betting on?On Thursday (June 12), the U.S. Department of Labor released the Producer Price Index (PPI) for May and the initial jobless claims data for the week ending June 7. The data showed that the annual rate of PPI in May was 2.6%, in line with market expectations, and the previous value was 2.4%; the core PPI monthly rate only increased by 0.1%, lower than the expected 0.3%, and the previous value was -0.4%. The number of initial jobless claims remained unchanged at 248,000, slightly higher than the market expectation of 240,000, and the four-week average rose to 240,200, while the number of continued claims increased sharply by 54,000 to 1.956 million, setting a recent high. These data reflect that the U.S. labor market continues to cool, and inflationary pressures have eased but there are still uncertainties. The market's sensitivity to the Fed's expectations of rate cuts has further increased, coupled with the economic uncertainty caused by tariff remarks, investor sentiment has become cautious. Immediate market reaction: Risk aversion heats up, and the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields are under pressure After the data was released, the financial market reacted quickly, and the dollar index fell 1.02% to 97.63, reflecting market concerns about slowing inflation and a weak labor market. U.S. Treasury yields continued to fall, with the 10-year Treasury yield falling 6.7 basis points to 4.343%, a daily decline of 1.63%, showing investors' cautious attitude towards the economic outlook. Short-term interest rate futures prices rose, and traders further bet on the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates this year. The probability of a rate cut at the September 17 meeting rose from 76% before the data was released to nearly 80%. In the stock market, S&P 500 futures fell 0.25%, continuing the previous day's 0.3% drop. Market sentiment was affected by weak labor market data and sudden events in the aviation industry. Boeing's stock price plummeted 7% due to the crash of Air India's 787 Dreamliner, dragging down the performance of the Dow Jones Index. The gold market showed safe-haven appeal. Spot gold broke through $3,390/ounce to $3,390.13/ounce, up 1.05% on the day; the main contract of COMEX gold futures rose 1.97% to $3,410.40/ounce, reflecting the market's rising demand for safe-haven against economic uncertainty. In the foreign exchange market, the pound rose to 1.3600 against the US dollar, up 0.42% on the day. Compared with market expectations before the data was released, the mild performance of the PPI data slightly eased inflation concerns, but the high level of initial jobless claims and the significant increase in the number of continued claims intensified the market's concern about the weak labor market. Before the data was released, some institutions expected the PPI monthly rate to reach 0.2%, while the number of initial claims could fall back to 240,000. The actual data was lower than inflation expectations but higher than employment expectations, and market sentiment shifted from cautious optimism to risk aversion, and the decline in the US dollar and US Treasury yields reflected this shift. Data interpretation: Weak labor market and inflationary pressure coexist From the data details, the annual PPI rate of 2.6% in May was in line with expectations, slightly higher than the previous value of 2.4%, indicating a mild recovery in inflationary pressure on the production side, but the core PPI monthly rate increased by only 0.1%, lower than expected, indicating that the inflation momentum after excluding food, energy and trade was limited. This is consistent with the recent trend of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, suggesting that inflation has stabilized overall, but has not yet fully returned to the Fed's 2% target range. In terms of the labor market, the number of initial unemployment claims has continued to run high, with the four-week average rising to 240,200 and the number of continued claims increasing to 1.956 million, indicating that it is more difficult for the unemployed to find jobs. Although the median unemployment duration has dropped from 10.4 weeks in April to 9.5 weeks in May, there has been no large-scale layoffs in the labor market, but the growth momentum has slowed significantly. Analysts from well-known institutions pointed out that part of the reason for the cooling of the labor market is related to the economic uncertainty caused by tariff rhetoric, and companies tend to hoard labor rather than actively expand. In addition, the White House's recent tightening of immigration restrictions has further compressed the labor supply. The Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) data indicate that job growth from April 2024 to May 2025 may be overestimated, and Barclays economist Jonathan Millar expects that the benchmark revision in 2025 may reduce job growth by 800,000 to 1.125 million, an average monthly decrease of 65,000 to 95,000. This forecast further reinforces market concerns about an economic slowdown. Institutional and retail views also reflect similar sentiments. Before the data was released, retail investors expected that if the PPI increase was lower than expected and the initial claims data was higher than expected, the Fed would be under more pressure to cut interest rates. After the data was released, the PPI data was moderate and the initial claims data was high. The market's expectations for the Fed's September rate cut were further heated up, and the trend of gold and US Treasury yields has already said it all. Some retail traders believe that both the initial claims data and PPI are weak, the US dollar index fell below 98, and they are bearish on the US dollar in the short term, and gold bulls have opportunities. Compared with the optimistic expectations before the data was released, retail sentiment turned cautious, and some investors began to pay attention to the allocation opportunities of safe-haven assets. Expectations of Fed rate cuts and changes in market sentiment After the data was released, the market's expectations for the Fed's monetary policy changed subtly. Before the data was released, the market's probability of a rate cut at the Fed meeting on July 30 was only 23%, and the probability of a meeting on September 17 was 76%. After the release of PPI and initial claims data, the probability of a rate cut in September rose to nearly 80%, reflecting the market's comprehensive judgment on slowing inflation and a weak labor market. Traders have fully digested the possibility of two rate cuts this year, and the rise in short-term interest rate futures further confirms this expectation. However, tariff rhetoric and potential fiscal stimulus policies (such as the Republican tax cut plan) may put upward pressure on inflation, limiting the Fed's room for rate cuts. From the perspective of market sentiment, before the data was released, investors' expectations for PPI and initial claims data were relatively divided. Some institutions expected that inflation might exceed expectations, while labor market data might improve. The mild performance of actual data dispelled concerns about overheating inflation, but the weakness of employment data exacerbated expectations of an economic slowdown. Outlook for future trends Looking ahead, market trends will remain volatile under the combined influence of the Fed's monetary policy expectations, tariff rhetoric and the global macro environment. In the short term, the mild performance of PPI data provides the Fed with greater policy flexibility, but the weakness of initial and renewal data indicates that the labor market may slow down further, and the probability of a rate cut in September will remain high. However, the upward risk of inflation caused by tariff rhetoric and potential fiscal stimulus policies may limit the extent of rate cuts. The market needs to pay close attention to the July non-farm payrolls data and June CPI data to further confirm the trend. From a historical perspective, the S&P 500 index often shows a volatile pattern against the backdrop of mild inflation data and weak employment data. The current index is 2% lower than the historical high on February 19, and may continue to be under pressure in the short term. Gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset is increasing, and a breakthrough of $3,390/ounce may indicate further upside. The weakness of the US dollar index may continue, but we need to be wary of the support for the US dollar from safe-haven demand caused by tariff policies or geopolitical risks (such as the situation between Russia and Ukraine). In the long run, continued weakness in the labor market may prompt the Fed to adopt a more accommodative policy in the second half of 2025, but the uncertainty of inflationary pressure will keep the policy path cautious. Investors should pay attention to the guidance of subsequent economic data, especially the revision of QCEW data, to judge the true situation of the job market.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Charlie_Analyst
1
High-level shock, pay attention to the upper suppression levelFrom the 4-hour analysis, the support below is around 3315-20. If it falls back to this position, we will continue to look at the rebound and upward continuation. The resistance above is around 3345-50. The overall gold price remains the main tone of high-altitude low-multiple cycles. I will remind you of the specific operation strategy in the channel, please pay attention to it in time. Gold operation strategy: 1. If gold falls back to 3315-20, buy more. If it falls back to 3295-3003, buy more. Stop loss 3285, target 3345-3350, and continue to hold if it breaks;
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by BarnettWolf
1
Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD Trading Plan for June 13, 2025🌀 Wave Structure Overview As anticipated in previous plans, a strong bullish move has unfolded. Unfortunately, wave 2 within wave 3 was extremely sharp, triggering our stop loss — but that’s part of trading. Not every market movement will go perfectly as planned. Currently, by closely observing wave 3, we can see that each bullish leg has shown similar length. This suggests a high probability of an extended wave, possibly wave 3 or wave 5. In Elliott Wave theory, extended waves are the most difficult to predict in terms of where they will end. That’s why selling against the trend (“standing in front of the train”) is discouraged. Instead, we should rely on corrective structures to find buy opportunities in line with the main trend. On the chart, the price is showing a 5-wave structure (i ii iii iv v) in purple. There’s also a possibility that wave iii itself is extending, forming 5 smaller waves, making a total of 9 subwaves — all with similar bullish momentum. This reinforces the potential for an extended wave in progress. 🎯 Target Zone for Wave iv Correction (Purple) Watch levels: 3419 and 3411 This is the ideal zone to look for buying opportunities aligned with the prevailing uptrend. 📉 Momentum Analysis - Daily (D1): Momentum remains bullish, which supports the continuation of the upward trend — a key requirement for a sustained wave move. - H4: Momentum is currently in the overbought zone and may remain there for a while, waiting for D1 to also reach overbought. However, this also signals a potential risk of reversal that should not be ignored. - H1: Momentum has turned downward, which supports the idea that wave iv is forming. ✅ Trade Plan BUY ZONE: 3415 – 3412 STOP LOSS: 3405 TAKE PROFITS: TP1: 3428 TP2: 3444 TP3: 3480 📌 Note: Stick to trend-following trades and avoid counter-trend positions that try to "catch the top." Be patient, wait for clear confirmation signals around wave iv’s zone, and manage your risk carefully.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by WavePoint_FX
2
XAU/USD Forming Lower Lows – Waiting for Pullback to ShortPrice just broke structure to the downside and formed a new lower low on gold. I’m currently watching for a pullback into the previous structure level or a supply zone before entering shorts. If price gives rejection in that zone, I’ll be looking for confirmation entries to ride the trend down. Trend = bearish, and I’m just waiting for the market to come to me. 📉 Not financial advice — just sharing how I’m approaching the setup.
VANTAGE:XAUUSDShort
by fxwizy
1
Gold Breaks $3400 – Targets $3500 Amid Tensions (READ)By analyzing the gold chart on the lower timeframe, we can see that today, following Israel's missile and airstrike attacks on Iran, gold experienced a sharp rally. As anticipated last night, gold finally managed to break through the strong $3400 resistance, surging over 600 pips to reach $3447. Currently, gold is trading around $3438, and given the escalation in geopolitical tensions, I expect further upside movement. The next potential targets are $3449, $3469, and possibly $3500. ⚠️ Due to ongoing conflict and extreme volatility, it's advised to avoid trading or proceed only with minimal risk exposure. Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by ArmanShabanTrading
1