XAUUSD observationGold's current state
How should we view this?
Personal opinion：Retracement after the Triangle Convergence Breakout
Bearish expectations
The first Target is to complete AB=CD.
XAUUSDK trade ideas
gold shortHTF strong selling pressure.
15min supply zone.
If this area can hold, then short till the very bottom
Weekly Outlook | XAUUSD June 30 – July 4, 2025Welcome to a new trading week. Let’s break down the gold chart from a clean, high-timeframe perspective. No setups, no noise – just structure, momentum, and zones that matter.
🌐 Macro Overview
This week concentrates all key USD events into one tight window:
Tuesday: ISM Manufacturing + Fed Chair Powell speech
Wednesday: ADP Employment
Thursday: NFP, Unemployment Rate, ISM Services PMI
Friday: US holiday – markets closed
📌 This means liquidity and momentum will peak by Thursday, then fade into the weekend.
Expect gold to stay in range until macro data breaks direction.
🧠 Weekly Structure & Momentum
Gold remains in a bullish macro structure, but price is hesitating below 3300.
Last two weekly candles printed long upper wicks with no body follow-through – clear sign of distribution, not continuation.
We’re still trading above the 21EMA Weekly, which maintains the uptrend’s integrity.
RSI (14): sitting at ~59 → no real momentum breakout, just consolidation.
📌 The chart is not reversing, but it’s also not trending anymore. We’re in a decision zone.
📍 Key Weekly Areas of Interest
3430 – 3500 → W1 Imbalance + March High Sweep
This is a wide weekly imbalance left unfilled since March, paired with the prior 2024 swing high. 3500 is also a psychological round number. If price pushes into this area, it becomes a liquidity target, not an entry – unless a clear rejection forms.
3330 – 3230 → Weekly Decision Block
This is the current consolidation range. It includes multiple W1 candle bodies, wick highs/lows, and volume cluster.
– Weekly close above 3330 = likely bullish continuation toward 3430+
– Weekly close below 3230 = confirms weakness and opens path to the next major support
3080 – 2970 → Weekly Demand + Fib 38%
Clean block of accumulation from April–May, aligned with the 38.2% retracement of the 2024 rally. This is where we’d expect institutional buying interest on a deeper pullback.
A weekly candle with a long wick into this zone + strong close would reset bullish structure.
2850 – 2720 → Last Macro Demand Zone
This zone includes the 50EMA weekly, a weekly FVG from late 2023, and unmitigated demand before the full 2024 breakout. If price ever gets here, we’re no longer in a healthy uptrend – we’re correcting structurally. But this zone will matter if that happens.
🧭 Summary & Expectations
Gold is still inside a large weekly range.
Until we break above 3330 or below 3230, it’s just consolidation on the HTF.
Thursday’s data will decide the candle.
Don’t predict direction — let the W1 close speak.
📌 Final Notes:
Above 3330 = room toward 3430–3500
Below 3230 = risk opens toward 3080–2970
Inside = no directional edge — stay reactive, not biased
🔥 If you enjoy this clean breakdown: hit that 🚀, follow & drop your thoughts below!
Stay sharp traders — we execute with precision.
— GoldFxMinds
XAU/USD Analysis – June 30, 2025✅ Primary Scenario (Bearish Bias):
Short-term move up expected:
Price is expected to fill the Fair Value Gap (FVG) around 3,305 – 3,306.
This level aligns with a key resistance zone and also the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement, making it a strong area for a potential bearish reaction.
Downtrend continuation:
If price reacts from the resistance zone, we expect the downtrend to continue, targeting:
📍 3,256 – liquidity zone
📍 3,245 – additional liquidity below
📍 3,228 – unfilled FVG
GOLD ANALYSIS FOR MONDAY MARKET OPEN, 30TH JUNE, 2025Gold looks bearish heading into the new week. We had the formation of a weekly engulfing candle last week. I expect a pullback buy at market open from the current level to a take-profit level of 3316.
After that, I expect a sell-off from the 3318 level down to the 3000 level for the rest of the week.
I will be posting daily updates here, cheers!
30/06 WILL WE SEE A RECOVERY ON THE LAST DAY OF THE MONTH? ↗️GOLD PLAN – 30/06: WILL WE SEE A RECOVERY ON THE LAST DAY OF THE MONTH? ☄️
✅ Macro Context – Focus on USD Debt and Political Pressure
Today marks the final trading day of June, and the U.S. faces a $6 trillion debt maturity from Covid-era borrowings, which may impact USD liquidity and market sentiment.
During the Asian session, gold experienced a sharp drop to the 32xx area before bouncing back and is now hovering near last week's close.
While the medium-term structure remains bearish, short-term signals suggest a potential reversal and recovery.
✅Political Catalyst:
→ Trump is pressuring the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates to 1%-2%, stating he won’t appoint anyone unwilling to ease policy.
→ This raises expectations of future rate cuts, which could support gold prices in the near term.
✅ Technical Outlook – Multi-timeframe Structure
On the higher timeframes, gold continues to correct lower.
However, short-term candles are showing recovery momentum, with buyers absorbing around the 327x zone.
Today’s strategy: prioritize short-term BUY setups aligned with the recovery wave.
✔️Key Resistance & Support Levels
🔺Resistance: 3283 – 3291 – 3301 – 3322
🔻Support: 3277 – 3271 – 3259 – 3247
🔖Trade Scenarios
✅Buy Scalping
🔺Entry: 3272 – 3274
🔹SL: 3268
✔️TP: 3282 – 3288 – 3298
✅Buy Zone
🔺Entry: 3249 – 3251
🔹SL: 3244
✔️TP: 3265 – 3282 – 3295 – 3310
💠Sell Scalping
🔺Entry: 3298 – 3300
🔹SL: 3304
✔️TP: 3292 – 3282 – 3270
💠Sell Zone
🔺Entry: 3327 – 3329
🔹SL: 3333
✔️TP: 3322 – 3310 – 3298 – 3282
⚡️ Final Note
As this is the month-end session, expect possible volatility driven by USD flows and institutional rebalancing.
GOLD/USD Bullish Reversal and Breakout Target GOLD/USD Bullish Reversal and Breakout Target 🎯 ✨📈
🔍 Technical Analysis Overview:
The chart illustrates a clear bullish reversal pattern following a strong downtrend, with price reacting from a key support zone (highlighted in blue).
Multiple bullish rejection wicks and confirmation candles (green arrows) indicate buying interest at this support.
The recent higher low formation confirms shift in market structure towards bullish bias.
📌 Key Zones:
🟦 Support Zone: Around 3,280 – 3,320 USD
Price respected this zone multiple times (marked with orange circles), confirming its strength.
🟥 Resistance Zone / Target: 3,430 – 3,460 USD
This area aligns with previous swing highs and is the projected target for this bullish move.
📈 Chart Structure:
Break of descending trendline and bullish momentum above support suggests potential continuation towards the marked target.
Falling wedge breakout also aligns with reversal logic.
🎯 Price Target:
3,438.515 USD (resistance area), as labeled on chart with arrow and breakout projection.
🛑 Invalidation Level:
A sustained break below the support zone (3,280 USD) would invalidate this bullish outlook.
📌 Conclusion:
Gold is exhibiting strong bullish behavior with confirmation from price action and structure break. As long as price sustains above support, the path toward 3,438 remains
PCE data week gold under pressure! Rebound high altitude strategFrom the analysis of the 4-hour trend of gold, the price of gold continued to decline after opening today. In view of the particularity of the closing stage of the weekly line, it is recommended that you avoid blindly chasing shorts and should adhere to the idea of swinging short trading. The technical level shows that the Bollinger Bands in the 4-hour cycle show a clear closing trend, and the price is constrained by the operation below the middle track, and the short-term weak pattern is established. In terms of operation strategy, it is recommended to adopt a rebound short-selling-dominated strategy, focusing on the key pressure range of 3311-3316. It is necessary to arrange short orders in batches according to the strength of the rebound, and the lower target is to look at the support area of 3265-3260. Based on the comprehensive technical indicators, gold currently maintains a short trend, and it is recommended to use a rebound short-selling strategy as the main operation.
Operation strategy:
Gold is recommended to rebound in the 3311-3316 area to short, stop loss at 3324, target 3300-3280
XAUUSD POSSIBLE SHORTOn the technical view, the instrument is trading in a global bull trend on D1. It recently rejected for the 3rd time near a key zone and is now testing a supporting bullish trendline. If this is broken below and the subsequent support, it will be a good indication of a bearish movement.
Please do your own analysis before taking any trades.
Cheers and happy trading !!!
ARE WE IN A BEAR MARKET, AT WHAT EXTENT?In this video, I attempt to explain the fractal similarities in the gold market five years apart and how we can use a best-fit model to predict the next stage of the current correction.
In the next video, I will investigate the results of our model.
Check back shortly
Overall Trajectory BullishEntering long positions on XAU/USD based on a confirmed 3-Drive pattern on the H4 timeframe, aligning with confluence from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement zone.
As long as price stays and holds above 3200 I will remain bullish, if there is a close below 3200 then my analysis will be subject to change. Strong resistance will be at 3400 if it holds then the target is 3641 with a minor pullback at 3548.
Short gold, it will fall again after reboundingToday, gold rebounded after hitting a low of around 3245, and rebounded all the way to a high of around 3296, with a rebound of more than $51. Although the strength of gold's rebound cannot be underestimated, since gold fell and broke through, the previous support has become a strong resistance under the top-bottom conversion effect. Under the influence of heavy resistance, the short trend of gold has become more obvious.
At present, gold faces resistance in the 3300-3310 area in the short term. Before breaking through this area upward, gold shorts still have an advantage, and it is possible to test the support of the 3260-3250 area again. Moreover, before the NFP market this week, gold may maintain a volatile trend, so after a sharp rebound in gold, the short force may be more expressive.
Therefore, in trading, we can appropriately consider shorting gold in the 3295-3305 area, and look at the target area: 3275-3265-3255
OANDA:XAUUSD TVC:DXY FOREXCOM:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD
How to make accurate layout during gold volatility?Gold maintained a small range of fluctuations and consolidation rhythm today. In the morning, we arranged long orders at 3330-3331 and successfully exited at 3343. Affected by the ADP data, the gold price broke through 3345 and hit 3351. We also arranged short orders in the 3350-3351 area in time and are still holding positions. The focus of the support below is 3325-3315, which is the key position today. As long as this position is maintained, the long position will rebound and rise. Otherwise, it will fall into the battle for support at 3305-3295. In terms of operation, we continue to step back and do more.
From the current analysis of gold trend, the support below focuses on 3325-3315. The main bullish trend remains unchanged. Focus on the long-short watershed position of 3305-3295. The daily level stabilizes above this position and continues to step back and do more bullish rhythm.
GOLD LIQUIDITY MASTERCLASS: The Smart Money Playbook Revealed🧠 INSTITUTIONAL MINDSET
At $3,365: "Perfect! Time to sell into retail buying"
At $3,337: "Let's see how this plays out"
At $3,318: "Preparing for the hunt"
At $3,270: "Starting to accumulate"
At $3,245: "Loading the truck! This is what we've been waiting for"
🔍 LIQUIDITY ZONES DECODED: The Hidden Treasure Map
🎯 BELLOW SELL IF CLOSE CONFIRMED: $3,318
Significance: Close below = bears take control
Time Frame: 4H close confirmation needed
________________
🛡️ BUY ZONE & 1H OB: $3,270
The Fortress: Major institutional buy zone
Order Block Significance: 1H order block provides additional support
Risk/Reward Sweet Spot: Excellent entry for swing positions
_______________
⚡ BUY ZONE + ADD CONFIRMATION LIQUIDITY SWEEP: $3,245
The Ultimate Accumulation Zone: Where smart money loads up
_________ 🎯 STRATEGY _________
Entry: $3,238-$3,2440 (after liquidity sweep confirmation)
Stop Loss: $3,230 (below the sweep low)
Target 1: $3,290 (Risk:Reward 1:3)
Target 2: $3,320 (Risk:Reward 1:5)
Target 3: $3,365 (Risk:Reward 1:8)
🚨 RISK WARNING 🛡️ DYOR 🚨 DISCLAIMER - JUST FOR EDUCATION PROPOSAL ⚠️
Gold price analysis July 2As expected, after the D1 candle showed the return of buying power, yesterday's trading session saw the price continue its upward trend and reach 3357.
Currently, the market is in an accumulation phase with a fairly wide range, fluctuating from 3328 to 3344. This is an important price zone, acting as a "sideway box" waiting for a breakout.
The priority strategy at this time is still trend trading - activated when the price breaks out of the above accumulation zone.
BUY orders will have a high probability of success if the price adjusts and retests the Support or Resistance zones that have just been broken, then forms a confirmation signal.
Meanwhile, SELL orders around resistance should only be considered a recovery strategy in an uptrend - requiring strict risk management and short-term profit expectations.
Breakout Range: 3328 – 3344
Support: 3310 – 3298
Resistance: 3368 – 3386
XAUUSD Update after NFP July 2025After NFP of July 2025 data released, Gold has a minor drop and it seen to moving upside to continue the major trend.
Still watching a fundamental news such as a geopolitical, war, global economic to drive it move.
Technical support now is on 3310 level.
Good Luck !
Potential NFP tonightThe markets are currently bracing for a softer-than-expected NFP print, driven by weak ADP data and U.S. demographic headwinds. If the numbers come in below consensus, it would open the door for USD‑short trades and entries into gold or equity indices. Conversely, a stronger release would warrant watching for a rebound in the dollar and Treasury yields. This report will also shape expectations around Fed policy and the likelihood of a rate cut in September.
XAUUSD Traders – The ONLY Timeframes That Matter🎓 XAUUSD Traders – The ONLY Timeframes That Matter
If you want to stop being a liquidity snack for the big players, you must know which timeframes actually reveal what the market makers are doing.
Here’s your complete educational guide for XAUUSD:
⸻
🔍 1️⃣ The 4-Hour (4H) – The Market Maker Blueprint
✅ Why Watch It?
This is where the real accumulation and distribution happens.
Market makers build and unwind positions over multiple sessions—London and New York.
If you want to see the big plan, this is your chart.
✅ What to Look For:
• Strong rejection candles near key resistance (3330–3350).
• Fake breakouts with no follow-through.
• EMA21 and SMA50 acting as dynamic resistance.
• High-volume candles marking where the big boys stepped in.
🎯 Tip: If the 4H chart is bearish, every bounce on smaller timeframes is suspect.
⸻
⏰ 2️⃣ The 1-Hour (1H) – Timing the Trap
✅ Why Watch It?
1H is perfect for seeing the moment the trap is set.
This is when price pumps into resistance or dumps below support—just enough to trigger stops.
✅ What to Look For:
• Quick rallies on low volume (pump phase).
• Reversal candles forming right after a breakout.
• Delta flipping negative as price pushes higher (hidden selling).
🎯 Tip: Combine 4H structure with 1H confirmation—this is where precision timing happens.
⸻
🎯 3️⃣ The 15-Minute (15M) – Entry Execution
✅ Why Watch It?
15M shows micro-structure and liquidity hunts.
This is where you confirm whether that big 1H candle was real—or just a head fake.
✅ What to Look For:
• Sharp wicks that stop out traders (liquidity flush).
• Tight consolidation after a failed breakout.
• Rejection patterns before price reverses.
🎯 Tip: Use the 15M to pull the trigger—not to overthink.
⸻
📅 4️⃣ The Daily – Bias Confirmation
✅ Why Watch It?
Daily sets the macro tone.
You must know whether you’re fighting the bigger wave.
✅ What to Look For:
• Where price closed relative to EMA21 and SMA50.
• Big bearish engulfing candles.
• Volatility expanding or contracting.
🎯 Tip: If daily is bearish, you have extra confirmation to fade pumps.
⸻
⚔️ How to Combine These Timeframes
Here’s the professional workflow:
1️⃣ Daily – Define bullish or bearish bias.
2️⃣ 4H – Spot the setup zone (accumulation or distribution).
3️⃣ 1H – Watch the trap unfold.
4️⃣ 15M – Execute your entry with surgical precision.
✅ This is how you stop chasing noise and start trading structure.
⸻
💡 Pro Wisdom:
“Retail traders react to price. Professionals react to price and context.”
— Technical Analysis and Stock Market Profits
⸻
🚀 Trade smart. Study structure. Outsmart the herd.
#XAUUSD #ForexEducation #PriceActionTrading #MarketMakerSecrets #LearnToTrade
GOLD/USD 1H – Bullish Reversal SetupLiquidity Collected. Demand Activated. Gold Set to Fly.
🔽 Buy Zone (Demand Area)
Range: 3,235 – 3,245
Liquidity sweep below lows suggests smart money accumulation
Watch for bullish confirmation within this zone
Take-Profit Levels
TP1 ~3,260 Minor structure break
TP2 ~3,280 Liquidity retest zone
TP3 ~3,329 FVG fill & supply mitigation
🧠 Setup Highlights
FVG between 3,295 – 3,310
Smart Money Concepts in play
Ideal reversal timing after June 27 news event
✅ Trade Plan
Entry: Inside demand zone (on confirmation)
Stop Loss: Below 3,222.75
Targets: 3,260 → 3,280 → 3,329
R:R: Favorable if entered near demand base
GOLD WILL FALL|SHORT|
✅GOLD is trading in a
Downtrend and the price is
Making a typical rebound but
After the horizontal resistance
Level above around 3,300$ is
Retested we will be expecting
A further bearish move down
SHORT🔥
✅Like and subscribe to never miss a new idea!✅
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
XAUUSD:Sharing of the Latest Trading StrategyAll the trading signals this week have resulted in profits!!! Check it!!!👉👉👉
Early Session Dynamics:
Gold rebounded in today’s early trading after finding support at the prior low of 3245, aligning with our weekly forecast. The intraday strategy prioritizes a low-level rebound correction, with short positions to be initiated at resistance levels.
Key Technical Levels:
Resistance: 3295–3308
Support: 3250–3240
4-Hour Chart Perspective:
The market remains weak with high volatility. The double-bottom effect at 3245 is unconfirmed, and no bottoming pattern has emerged. Thus, the week’s initial outlook is for a range-bound oscillation between 3308 and 3240:
A rebound opportunity exists as long as 3240 holds.
A break above 3308 could trigger upward momentum.
Intraday Trading Strategy:
Lacking follow-through in the European session, the short-term trend is viewed as range-bound
Sell@3305-3295
TP:3285-3250
buy@3250-3260
TP:3285-3300
so we tried buying last week so expecting longs this week it sweeps liquidity once more and gentlt wait for longs
