Trade negotiations and CPI data may trigger sharp volatility.Gold prices have maintained a consolidative pattern after completing retracement adjustments at the start of the week, with two key events today potentially breaking the calm:
1. China-US Trade Negotiation Outcome Pending
Chinese representative Li Chenggang disclosed that both sides have "reached a framework agreement in principle," characterizing the negotiations as "professional, rational, in-depth and candid." However, the market should be wary that this outcome may fall short of expectations—compared with previous talks, this round of consultations faces notably higher resistance. Specific clauses in the joint statement (such as the magnitude of tariff reductions and the scope of technical export restrictions relaxation) will directly influence risk sentiment. A dovish-leaning agreement may trigger short-term profit-taking in gold.
2. May CPI Data in Focus Tonight
The market expects inflation data to rebound month-on-month. If the actual figure exceeds expectations:
- Bullish scenario: Rising inflation suppresses consumption and drags on economic growth, with gold's inflation-hedging attribute likely to attract safe-haven buying;
- Bearish scenario: Elevated inflation may weaken expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts—if inflation persists above the 2% target, the Fed may pivot to contractionary policies (such as delaying rate cuts or balance sheet reduction), curbing gold's upside potential.
Trading Strategy Notes
The sustainability of the current gold rebound remains questionable, with investors advised to guard against the risk of "post-event reversal":
- Technical levels: Dense resistance at 3,330–3,350,with3,295 serving as the short-term support threshold;
- Trading advice: Avoid chasing rallies. Consider light short positions at resistance levels, or wait for data release to trade with the emerging volatility;
- Risk management: With two major events converging, volatility may surge. It is recommended to reduce position sizes and implement trailing stops.
XAU/USD
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