MEDIUM TERM(XAUXAG): WAVE COUNT|BULLISH TARGETS+STRUCTURAL [TA]Commodity and Fixed Income Series : Part 1 Commodities ( Ratios+the most popular and widely traded Commodities )
The Essential note s from this chart are the following( Indicator analysis included in the comments ): {4.5 minute read}
To begin with the easiest part of the chart. The supports were identified on the quarterly chart which will be linked in the comments. There are 3 main support levels :1. ~80(RED LINE) 2. ~70-66(BLUE LINE) 3. ~58-60(GREEN LINE)
Somewhat more difficult part of the chart are the bullish targets . There are 2 main targets and 1 psychologica l. The 2 main targets were derived based on fibonacci extensions from the quarterly chart #1 ~94, #2 ~110 ; and the obvious psychological target is circa: 100 .
Q: What is the method used to label the Wave count?
-Following the ABC correction(2008-2011), gold has clearly outperformed silver. This is partially because of the new production methods that were introduced after 2012( more cost-effective extraction of silver as a byproduct while mining for other metals). In effect, this boosted the supply of silver relatively to gold; positively affecting the gold-to-silver ratio . Hence, the W-X-Y-X-Z Wave count fits the best into the current chart structure.
Q: Bullish on silver? - Not yet . As it can be observed from the chart, prior to the ABC correction(2008-2011) ; there was a boom in the demand for gold as the primary metal of value used as a protection against inflation . This pattern should occur during the next recession, yielding a potential target for the ratio of around ~110.
Other worthy notes: 2020 Election will have an impact on practically every market; Commodities are no exception . Nevertheless, in the medium term , I am relatively more bullish on silver in comparison to gold . This is supported by continuously downtrending volume as we progress through the bullish channel(pitchfork) . The ABC orange labelled correction is obviously a far fetched idea, since we do not know the timing nor the absolute top for the ratio yet. It's included just for the sake of general market principles.
P.S. I do realize the chart is quite hard to be understood, mostly because it is labelled to the smallest and extreme detail. If there are any poor understandings of the labels, I'd be able to answer any additional questions in the comment s.
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Step_Ahead_oftheMarket- {Make sure to check out my previous series on US(SPX) Sector including 11 episodes of the major US sectors}
This chart is a continuation to one of my most popular charts from last week:
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