OIL MAY 2024 WEEK 2 OUTLOOK -
Daily - this is tricky. oil has fallen considerably since it's considerable run up which started in Feb. this seems like a healthy pullback though. as long as it holds above **82.98**, we can perhaps look to go long next week. NOT THIS WEEK
Origin - Bearish, in need of pullback. range to look out for is **83.18 - 85.47**. we'll be looking for price to reject this level as it moves up. but we have key zones above and below so we need one side clear in order to get involved. not going to participate in oil this week.
XBRUSD trade ideas
SL #63970/90cbS261h1
160cbS261h4
Bigger doesn't means always better. Time still playing the crucial timing here expecially in any big movement. Result could be differ from time to time. When and where playing the big role.
I could just end it within my trading hours, but wasting 3 more hours just to get stopped just wasting 6 hours of my time.
Recover with much more smaller structure in h1 and validation build up on tokyo next day.
Selling is still the best option but im still backtesting for continuation system.
Brent's Buyer Attraction Amidst Downturn Signals CautionHello Everyone,
Brent is currently drawing in many buyers who are entering the market despite the downturn. Long-term bullish projections remain solid. However, if the price stabilizes below the 1-year pivot point, we could witness further downside.
TradeWithTheTrend3344
Brent stopped out and Drawdown increasingIn this live trading session video,we look at the BRTUSD trade that got recently stopped out for a small loss on the 100k traders challenge account. We also look closely at the drawdown and why this is happening according to the strategy characteristics on both 50% OE and 20% OE strategy. Finally, we explore on what we should do about this by looking at 3 different options. The concepts and ideas in this video can be cross transferred onto any strategy.
Brent Crude Oil: A Closer Look at Bearish SignalsThe BCO/USD chart reveals a bearish divergence ; despite higher price highs, the CCI shows lower highs, signaling a potential reversal. Additionally, the CCI's presence in an overbought zone suggests the pair might be peaking.
April's monthly pivot at 85.66, like March's, remains untouched —a notable point for traders. This untouched pivot, combined with our technical indicators, hints at a possible retracement to 85.66.
In essence, the bearish divergence and overbought CCI, alongside unmet pivot points, suggest a downturn could be imminent. Traders might consider preparing for a move towards April's pivot, keeping an eye on evolving market dynamics.
CRUDE OIL Bullish Heist Plan to BuyDear Oil Robbers/Traders,
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CRUDE OIL Bullish Side Robbery Plan to make moneyMy Dear Robbers / Traders,
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TrendingTopic: Brent on the riseToday, the Brent crude oil price has experienced a turbulent opening upwards, turning around from $86.72 to reach its current price at $87.54. The truth is that the triple bounce in the middle zone of the channel represents that the oil price has come to stay at least in this price area, after the high correction it has suffered since Friday April 12 and 19 where it could not pierce its upward price zone. It seems that in spite of everything West Texas is following in the same wake. Partly it is due to the results of oil and gas extractive companies that have had poor quarterly results, partly it is also due to crude inventories being slightly lower as the gasoline report was at 600,000 barrels versus 778,000 barrels for the five year average.
Last week, refineries increased their inventory by 1.6 million barrels, 7% below the five-year average for this time of year. This is a clear sign that the United States has become a more reliable supplier of this commodity to Europe, especially since Europe no longer relies on Russia for its orders. There are clear doubts in the market that Biden and his restriction policies, especially on liquid gas, could leave them in a precarious state. In other words, the lack of diversification in an environment of geopolitical risk may be the determining factors that especially affect the Brent barrel and LNG with a view to the coming winters. This downward adjustment may create problems in Europe. While demand remains on pause, the region currently in spring has flagged at the Amsterdam conferences its concerns among the main players in this sector, especially if we have a cold winter on this side of the Atlantic, which may generate that the futures of such commodities are reflected upwards, since contracts for next winter may be more expensive than today, ahead of time.
All this comes in the wake of the conflicts in the Strait of Hormuz, the new Russian northern lane for Chinese cargo transports, and the new Venezuelan-US enmity that seems to be an addition to all the ills orchestrated by President Biden in that part of South America.
Merey crude oil was sold in China for $14 a barrel, at ICE Brent on purpose compared to $11 a barrel prior to the establishment of sanctions between the USA and Venezuela, and at $8 a barrel at the beginning of the year. In other words, China continues to buy more from Venezuela than Europe did through Washington, and in the end the Mexican and Russian reports are also presenting themselves as an additional reason to be bullish on these products.
If we go back to the chart, both Brent and Crude are showing a clear upward trend, its trading bell is marking a possible return to $89.34 dollars although on the other hand its RSI started in oversold 38.22% is currently in the middle zone at 44.73, so it has a long stretch to fulfill the forecast of being bullish again. What is clear is that the candlestick pattern shows a clear upward trend.
Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst
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BRENT CRUDE OIL POTENTIAL LONG OPPORTUNITY (SWING TRADE)Hey everyone! What's going on! Hope you guys are having an amazing week so far. Just wanted to get on here and post analysis for a potential setup I see on Brent Oil here on the daily timeframe. So let's dive in!
OK so what made me actually see this as potential was first off on the weekly chart. Price had pushed down from the $96 dollar range falling to the low $70's in price; BUT price had failed to come reach the previous weekly lows...actually forming a higher low in price. Showing buyer power at a "worse" price for oil so to speak. So for me this displays to me that oil has an upside target to still be reach and based on the daily timeframe being in a strong demand driven, bullish trend. I see opportunity.
You can see on my chart a nice, clear demand (buyer) zone on this daily data chart. Something I really also like about this is the technical confluence it is giving me with the 200 EMA aligning within this demand zone as well as a 61.8% fib retracement (discount) level for price. With these alignments and my technical alignments with price I see a higher likelihood of prices rising even potentially to next weekly supply zone of the $97 range again taking previous highs and also fulfilling the -27% Fibonacci extension confluence that also aligns with this level.
OK so that is what I see here on Brent Crude Oil so let's keep an eye on the seller momentum and the buyer from this level! Cheers!
BCOUSD in the first half of 2024A glimpse of the BCOUSD in the first half of 2024
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Ukoil Target long position The chart wave structure is suitable for long positions. The psychological basis and the world conjuncture will bring the position target shown on the chart. It points to the change in dynamics that cause prices to remain under pressure for a long time. Ignoring the fluctuations, the strategy was determined in the direction of the target
Bullish scenario!Esteemed analysts and traders,
I hope this correspondence finds you in good health and high spirits, prepared to tackle the upcoming week with renewed energy. I extend my best wishes for your continued success in all your business endeavors. It is worth noting that success in trading is largely dependent on the consistent definition and adherence to one's own rules.
As a supporter of the Elliott Wave Principle, I consider this methodology an invaluable tool for market analysis. After three years of personal experience, I have developed my approach by combining this principle with meticulous consideration of different market scenarios. I strive to avoid market surprises by maintaining a range of market prospects, which enables me to recognize the market structure forming with 100% accuracy.
I am pleased to share my analysis with you, with the caveat that I do not provide buy or sell signals. My perspective on idea analysis is entirely impartial, and if my analysis meets your standards, it may serve as a guide to making an informed decision.
For your reference and comparison, I have attached my previous analysis of the same market. All the details of my analysis are clearly labeled for ease of comprehension. Nonetheless, familiarity with the Elliott Wave Principle theory would facilitate an understanding of the analytical idea.
My study of the Elliott Wave Principle took nearly three years, during which my understanding and experience with this invaluable tool have grown. My progress thus far is a testament to the legacy of Ralph Nelson Eliot, whose genius has provided the foundation for my achievements. May he rest in peace.
I express my gratitude for your continued support and kindness, and welcome your comments and critiques.
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The bearish scenario of any corrective pattern and trend continuation
Jump on the Oil Swings with Confidence!I am excited to share some positive news with you regarding the recent developments in the oil industry.
According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), crude inventories took a significant dip last week, falling by a whopping 6.37 million barrels. This decline has sparked a wave of optimism in the market, with WTI prices hovering around $83 a barrel and swinging between gains and losses.
As we navigate through this risk-off mood and witness the US stockpile decline, now is the perfect time to consider going long on oil. The potential for further price increases is certainly within reach, and this could be a lucrative opportunity for all of us.
So, let's not hesitate and take advantage of these oil swings with confidence. Trust your instincts, do your research, and make informed decisions. Together, we can ride the wave of success in the oil market.
Quick Market Update: Navigating Current Trends!#MarketInsights #GlobalEconomy #InterestRates
🌐 Quick Market Update: Navigating Current Trends!
▪️ Euro Strengthens: Robust business activity in Europe paired with cooling economic indicators in the U.S. have pushed the euro past $1.07.
▪️ Tesla's Rally: Despite a dip in profits and revenue-per-vehicle, Tesla's promise of new models next year spurred a 13% jump in its shares after-hours, recovering from a tough 2024 with a 42% drop earlier.
▪️ Aussie Recovery: Surprising inflation figures in Australia have revived the Australian dollar, bringing it back to its 200-day moving average against the U.S. dollar.
▪️ Yen at Decade Lows: The yen remains weak at 34-year lows, stirring market anticipation of potential Japanese government interventions, especially after significant forex market actions post a dovish Bank of Japan meeting. The yen traded around 154.85 against the dollar.
▪️ Global Focus: Upcoming are German business sentiment data, European policy maker speeches, and key earnings from companies like Meta and Boeing. Also, watch out for the U.S. core PCE data on Friday which could provide crucial rate clues.
▪️ China's Bond Market: After a record rally, China's long-dated bond yields spiked following central bank warnings about market risks.
🔍 Key Events to Monitor:
Economics: German Ifo survey.
Earnings: Reports from Electrolux, Eni, Orange, Meta, Ford, Bunge, AT&T, Hilton, Boeing.
Policy Talks: Speeches by ECB's Tuominen
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Escalation in Iran and Israel: How the Price of Brent Oil ReactsEscalation Between Iran and Israel: How the Price of Brent Oil Reacts
On the night of Thursday into Friday, reports emerged that Israel had attacked Iran following Iran's attack on Israel over the weekend.
Let's remember that we wrote on Monday that after a 300 drone and missile attack on Israel over the weekend, the price of Brent oil did not rise. Perhaps this happened because Iran's attack was then expected after the attack on its diplomatic mission, and warnings were published in the media.
And the initial reaction of financial markets to the escalation tonight looked more dramatic - there was a jump in prices for protective assets:
→ gold rose in price to USD 2,410 and above;
→ the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen have risen in price;
→ oil and US Treasury bonds rose in price.
There was also a sale of risky assets — Bitcoin, for example, fell below the USD 60k level. Moh Siong Sim, currency strategist at the Bank of Singapore, told Reuters: "It's pretty obvious the market is nervous. I think markets are at this stage in a flight-to-safety mode.”
As the morning approached, new information began to appear in Europe:
→ An Iranian official told Reuters that there was no missile attack;
→ CNN writes that Iranian air defenses intercepted three drones, and the United States did not approve of the Israeli attack;
→ According to the IAEA, there was no damage to Iran’s nuclear facilities after the Israeli strike.
→ According to ABC News, air traffic has resumed in Iran.
As a result, prices moved towards the closing levels of yesterday's trading — V-like patterns formed on the charts of the mentioned instruments.
The oil market can be considered the most susceptible to the influence of nightly news, since Iran is one of the top 10 countries in oil production.
Technical analysis of the Brent oil chart shows that:
→ the price rebounded from the level of the lower border of the ascending black channel (as we wrote yesterday);
→ however, supply forces intensified and returned the price closer to the lower border;
→ at the same time, a bearish inverted V pattern has formed on the Brent price chart today, and the median line of the channel shows signs of resistance;
→ it is also acceptable to expect that the former support at USD 88.50 will provide resistance when the price attempts to rise.
If a further round of escalation between Iran and Israel does not occur, it is possible that the Brent price will break down the current black ascending channel. And this may be welcomed by the US administration, where presidential elections are getting closer and closer.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Strifor || BRENT-18/04/2024Preferred direction: SELL
Comment: An excellent situation has formed for oil in the short term. After the price falls below level 89 , the continuation of the downward trend towards level 85 is considered, where we set a target for this trading idea. Buyers are trying in vain to buy off the “bottom” of the market, but today the limit buyer dominates the market and pushes the price down.
We are considering two scenarios, where scenario №1 is more likely, but in no case do we forget about scenario №2 , in which there will be a preliminary liquidation of “extra passengers”, and this will also allow us to attract new buyers as “fuel” for the trip down. One can also consider targets below level 85 .
Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us!
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Crude OIL: Bearish scenarioIf current and next 4h candle close behind the trend line we are in bearish trend. The main reason is inflation, nobody needs so expensive oil, it is very bad for economy. Many of us expected the conflict on middle east will push the price higher but as you see it doesn't happen.