DeGRAM | UKOIL stays below the resistance at 80.00UKOIL is trading in the descending channel.
The market keeps trading below the psychological level at 80.00.
Price is basically consolidating and coiling up before expansion.
We anticipate a rebound from the resistance at 80.00.
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XBRUSD trade ideas
Brent (ICE) may rise to 79.40 - 79.90Pivot
78.40
Our preference
Long positions above 78.40 with targets at 79.40 & 79.90 in extension.
Alternative scenario
Below 78.40 look for further downside with 77.70 & 77.10 as targets.
Comment
The RSI calls for a bounce.
Supports and resistances
80.60
79.90
79.40
79.07 Last
78.40
77.70
77.10
Number of asterisks represents the strength of support and resistance levels.
BRNUSD_4HBrent crude oil 4-hour and mid-term time frame analysis The possibility of the formation of ABC corrective wave, which is currently expected to be in wave B, and after the end of the range, it will continue to rise towards the number and range of $83 and $85 as wave C. The main and important support number and range is 76 and 77 dollars.
OPEC Forecasts an Increase in Oil Demand in 2024OPEC Forecasts an Increase in Oil Demand in 2024
Yesterday, the monthly oil market review was published:
→ OPEC expects global oil demand to increase by 2.25 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2024, representing a 2.2% increase compared to 2023.
→ In 2025, OPEC predicts a demand increase of 1.85 million barrels per day, reaching 106.21 million barrels per day. It is anticipated that the growth in oil consumption in 2025 will be driven by China, the Middle East, and India.
This aligns with Occidental Petroleum's perspective, where they anticipate a global oil shortage starting in 2025, as the pace of global oil demand growth is roughly four times higher than the volumes of new reserves.
However, according to Citi analysts, the price of Brent crude oil in 2025 is expected to be $60 per barrel due to oversupply.
As of today, the price of Brent crude oil is fluctuating in the consolidation zone around $77 per barrel. Market participants are closely monitoring the potential for an increase in the Brent oil price due to geopolitical tensions. For instance, Maersk has reported that escalation in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden will lead to disruptions in global logistics.
The Brent crude oil price chart indicates that
→ the new consolidation zone is lower than the previous one when the Brent price hovered around $81.
→ the price is near the crucial level of $73, which provided market support in 2023. At that time, OPEC+ countries announced a production cut to prevent further price decline. It is possible that they will take similar measures in 2024.
→ the rapid recovery of the price from December lows indicates the strength of demand for Brent oil below $74.
Given the provided information, if the Brent price falls below $74, it may lead to its subsequent increase.
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⚡️Strifor || BRENT-18/01/2024Preferred direction: SELL
Comment: Sell-deal by oil is also relevant. Recent events in the OPEC arena did not have a positive impact on oil, and the decline continued. At the moment, the transaction has been moved to breakeven, and part of the profit has been fixed. However, on Thursday, there is a good opportunity to take a closer look at short-term short. The main trigger for this will be the continued formation of balance.
The target for the fall of such a short-term deal coincides with the medium-term deal at the level of 72.36 . It should be noted that the instrument continues to trade near the minimum of last year, which is very dangerous for buyers since today, most likely, the long-term trend will be directed exactly below this threshold of last year.
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Brent (ICE) may rise to 78.60 - 79.15Pivot
77.50
Our preference
Long positions above 77.50 with targets at 78.60 & 79.15 in extension.
Alternative scenario
Below 77.50 look for further downside with 77.05 & 76.50 as targets.
Comment
The RSI calls for a bounce.
Supports and resistances
79.75
79.15
78.60
78.23 Last
77.50
77.05
76.50
Number of asterisks represents the strength of support and resistance levels.
⚡️Strifor || BRENT-11/01/2024Preferred direction: Neutral
Comment: There is no particularly interesting situation in the medium term for oil yet, but we can say that there are still more signs of sell. After all, the instrument is in a downward global trend. The current accumulation after a small downward impulse is filled with purchases (long-orders), that is, there is a resource for moving down.
As a target, we can consider the support level of 72.36, which is the minimum of the previous year. Regarding the longer term, most likely we will see updates to this low in 2023, and then an attempt to recover above this level.
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Brent - D1Brent
D1 - Update*
After breaking through the trend line, the price was unable to gain a foothold behind the line, which may lead to further downward movement when the lower line is broken.
For shopping, nothing changes dramatically.
Globally, the levels that the price can reach are 92.04
If a downward movement is realized, the levels can be considered at a price of 63.36
What can you expect?
Long - You can consider entering from the current levels of ~79.21 or wait for the price to fix behind the trend line and then consider entering.
Cancel if the price breaks the minimum - 75.34, if you are considering the entry from W1 and the formation of a 3-wave structure, the stop can be set at the minimum of the 1st wave at the level of 72.00
Short - When the level of 75.43 is broken, you can consider selling or wait for the price to fix behind the trend line and then consider entering.
Cancel if the price breaks the minimum - 79.33
Long
Target 81.41 - 82.78 - 85.51 - 87.98 - 92.04
Short
Target 72.36 - 70.61 - 66.79 - 63.36
The Critical Zone for #UKOIL (#Brent_Oil_CFD)The depicted zones are critical for #UKOIL (#Brent_Oil_CFD) .The price can react to them and can be entered in short position. Up to your entry type and risk management set TP/SL. Do not forget that you cannot succeed in this market without proper risk management.01/15/2024
Brent (ICE) may rise to 78.80 - 79.35Pivot
77.85
Our preference
Long positions above 77.85 with targets at 78.80 & 79.35 in extension.
Alternative scenario
Below 77.85 look for further downside with 77.05 & 76.40 as targets.
Comment
Intraday technical indicators are mixed.
Supports and resistances
79.90
79.35
78.80
78.09 Last
77.85
77.05
76.40
Number of asterisks represents the strength of support and resistance levels.
Oil Outlook: Rising Tensions versus Saudi Price CutsConflicting Factors Cause Volatile Start to the Year
The global oil market faces a turbulent start to 2024, navigating a complex interplay of factors that have sent prices on a rollercoaster ride. Saudi Arabia's unexpected price cuts, causing a nearly 4% drop in Brent crude on January 8th, hinted at the world's largest oil exporter's commitment to maintaining market share.
Just days later, Houthi threats, coupled with US and UK military strikes in Yemen, briefly pushed oil prices above $80 a barrel on January 12th. The redirection of oil tankers from the Red Sea intensified uncertainty, challenging earlier assumptions about market stability.
Analysts are divided on the medium-term trajectory of oil prices. While some focus on softening global demand and robust US supply growth, attributing the decline since September, others underscore the geopolitical landscape's role in swiftly altering market dynamics. The recent surge, driven by Houthi threats, highlights the delicate balance between global forces and market sentiment.
Technical Backdrop: Wedge Starts to Form
In the midst of conflicting market forces, technical analysis emerges as a crucial tool to contextualise January's volatility.
The daily candle chart for Brent crude reveals a persistent downtrend, with prices remaining over 18% below their September highs. Anchored volume-weighted average prices (VWAPs) from the autumn swing highs act as dynamic resistance points as the trend continues downward.
However, having retested key support in December, we have seen prices start to carve out a small series of higher swing lows – ‘funnelling’ the market into a ‘wedge’ pattern.
We can use this consolidation pattern as a canary in the coal mine – a decisive break above the wedge could set the stage for change in trend while a break below could finally trigger long-held support to be breached.
Brent Crude Daily Candle Chart
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OIL - 4hDue to the inability to break the resistance of 81.5 points upwards, if the upward trend of the price breaks down and the price stabilizes below the range of 78.0 units, there is a possibility of the price falling to the range of 76.8 units and in case of strength, there is a range of 75.0 units.
Otherwise, the possibility of price increase up to the range of 81.5 units.