Oil Analysis: Correction Before Uptrend with a Target of $85 mallicast :In the upcoming week, oil is expected to experience a corrective movement, but the overall trend remains bullish. The target price for this upward movement is $85.
XBRUSD trade ideas
Brent oil and the global recessionConsidering the events in the Middle East and the possibility of the involvement of oil-rich countries, and on the other hand, the economic policies of the United States and the growth of emerging countries in the economic field and the increase in demand from the behavioral financial point of view, oil has the potential to reach the range of $125 per barrel and after that. It has the construction of historical prices in 2025.
Weekly Market Wrap With Gary Thomson: Sept 30 - Oct 4Weekly Market Wrap With Gary Thomson: Brent Crude Oil, GBP/CAD, US Dollar, Lockheed Martin Stock
Welcome to the 100th edition of our Weekly Market Wrap video series!
Get the latest scoop on the week's hottest headlines, all in one convenient video. Join Gary Thomson, the COO of FXOpen UK, as he breaks down the most significant news reports and shares his expert insights.
– XBR/USD Analysis: Brent Oil Price Soars After Attack on Israel
– Analysis of GBP/CAD: Price Falls Below 1.800 Level
– Dollar Strengthens Ahead of Employment Data Release
– Lockheed Martin (LMT) Stock Price Surpasses $600 for the First Time
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CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing your money.
Petrolio in declino dal 2022: quali le prospettive adesso? Da inizio anno il petrolio sta guadagnando solo il 2% ma se ci concentriamo sui massimi di aprile 2024, dove il prezzo del petrolio ha raggiunto gli 88$ al barile, i prezzi sono scesi di oltre il 25%.
Nel 2022, post pandemia, abbiamo assistito a picchi che non si registravano dal 2008, intorno ai 120$ al barile per poi cominciare una lenta discesa fino ai giorni nostri.
Cosa sta causando questa tendenza di lungo periodo di deprezzamento del petrolio?
I CFD/Spread Bets sono strumenti complessi e comportano un rischio significativo di perdere denaro rapidamente a causa della leva finanziaria. 82,67% di conti di investitori al dettaglio perdono denaro nelle negoziazioni in CFD con questo fornitore. Valuta se comprendi il funzionamento dei CFD/Spread Bets e se puoi permetterti di correre l'elevato rischio di perdere il tuo denaro. Si prega di notare che gli Spread Bets sono disponibili solo per i residenti in UK.
Andiamo ad analizzare i 2 fattori principali:
OPEC+
L’OPEC è l’organizzazione dei principali paesi esportatori di Petrolio ed è stata fondata nel 1960. L’organizzazione inizialmente era composta da Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, Arabia Saudita e Venezuela ma successivamente ha accolto altri membri, fino a raggiungere l’attuale composizione di13 partecipanti.
Nel 2016, gli stati membri hanno firmato un accordo con altri 10 paesi produttori di petrolio per creare quello che ora è noto come OPEC+ (OPEC PLUS).
L'obiettivo di questa organizzazione è di gestire la produzione petrolifera e coordinare la produzione, governando, in parte, i prezzi globali del petrolio.
I risultati passati non sono indicativi dei risultati futuri.
Il prezzo di un bene o di una materia prima, come il petrolio, si basa sulla domanda e sull’offerta.
Controllando l’offerta, i paesi OPEC possono determinare i prezzi del petrolio? La risposta è NO! L’organizzazione non è in grado di controllare la domanda mondiale di petrolio, che dipende principalmente dall’andamento delle maggiori economie.
La diminuzione della domanda è proprio il motivo del calo dei prezzi del petrolio degli ultimi anni.
Da febbraio 2024, otto membri dell’OPEC+, tra cui Arabia Saudita e Russia (i più grandi produttori di petrolio), hanno volontariamente ridotto la loro produzione di circa 2,2 milioni di barili al giorno (riduzione dell’offerta).
Sebbene inizialmente l’OPEC avesse pianificato di diminuire questi tagli a partire da ottobre 2024, il calo attuale dei prezzi del petrolio ha portato a un’estensione dei tagli volontari per altri due mesi (almeno fino a dicembre 2024).
CINA
La Cina è una delle economie più grandi al mondo, di conseguenza l’andamento della propria economia e in particolare la bilancia dell’import export è capace di influenzare i prezzi di materie prime e beni finali a livello globale, tra cui il petrolio.
Analizzando i dati ufficiali delle importazioni cinesi degli ultimi anni è possibile notare come sia stato registrato un calo importante dai massimi del 2021, andate addirittura in territorio negativo a metà 2023. Importazioni basse si traducono in offerta in eccesso (a parità di produzione), obbligando i produttori OPEC a dover tagliare la produzione per mantenere bilanciata la domanda e l’offerta.
L’OPEC sta attualmente tagliando la produzione di un totale di 5,8 milioni di barili al giorno, pari a circa il 5,7% della domanda globale. Nell’ultimo report ufficiale dell’OPEC, si nota come le proiezioni future della domanda di petrolio cinese per l’ultimo trimestre del 2024 e per tutto il 2025 non sono riviste a rialzo, ma anzi, rimangono in territorio estremamente basso.
I risultati passati non sono indicativi dei risultati futuri.
I risultati passati non sono indicativi dei risultati futuri.
La produzione industriale cinese rimane ai minimi annuali e il settore manifatturiero si trova in fase di rallentamento. Le proiezioni economiche cinesi non sono rosee e sarà difficile vedere una ripresa entro la fine 2024. Il governo cinese nelle ultime settimane ha attuato diverse politiche fiscali di stimolo, come il taglio dei tassi di interesse e l’iniezione di liquidità all’interno del mercato.Purtroppo per la Cina pesa molto il tracollo immobiliare visto nel 2023, con il default di Evergrande e altri istituti immobiliari.
GUERRE-GEOPOLITICA
Le guerre e le tensioni geopolitiche hanno sempre influenzato i prezzi del petrolio nella storia e proprio in questi mesi stiamo vivendo, purtroppo, due guerre coinvolgenti grandi potenze su due fronti diversi: Russia-Ucraina e Israele e Palestina/Libano.
Negli ultimi giorni le notizie di attacchi iraniani sopra Israele hanno riacceso i prezzi del petrolio, che guadagna oltre il 6% dai minimi del 12 settembre.
Attualmente scambia sopra i 70$ al barile.
I risultati passati non sono indicativi dei risultati futuri.
I motivi dell’aumento dei prezzi sono da ricercarsi nella paura che sorgano ulteriori problemi di approvvigionamento in caso di attacchi a siti di estrazioni o alle esportazioni tramite navi cargo o mezzi su ruote.
Nonostante le guerre e la geopolitica riescono a spingere al rialzo i prezzi del petrolio, solitamente ciò avviene sui periodi relativamente brevi, di conseguenza appena le tensioni si allentano i prezzi tendono a riprendere la tendenza principale.
Oltre ai punti citati in questo articolo ci sono tanti altri motivi e altri paesi che influenzano i prezzi del petrolio.
Disclaimer:La finalità del presente articolo è meramente informativa e didattica. Le informazioni qui riportate non costituiscono consulenza in materia di investimenti e non contemplano la situazione finanziaria o gli obiettivi individuali degli investitori. Le informazioni relative ai risultati passati non sono un indicatore affidabile dei risultati futuri. Per quanto permesso dalla legge, in nessun caso, Capital.com (o un suo affiliato o dipendente) assume responsabilità per qualsiasi perdita incorsa a causa dell’utilizzazione delle informazioni fornite. Chi agisce in base a tali informazioni lo fa a proprio rischio. Qualsiasi informazione che possa essere intesa come “ricerca di investimento” non è stata preparata in conformità ai requisiti legali stabiliti per promuovere l’indipendenza della ricerca di investimento e dunque deve essere considerata comunicazione di marketing.
I CFD/Spread Bets sono strumenti complessi e comportano un rischio significativo di perdere denaro rapidamente a causa della leva finanziaria. 82,67%% di conti di investitori al dettaglio perdono denaro nelle negoziazioni in CFD con questo fornitore. Valuta se comprendi il funzionamento dei CFD/Spread Bets e se puoi permetterti di correre l'elevato rischio di perdere il tuo denaro. Si prega di notare che gli Spread Bets sono disponibili solo per i residenti in UK.
BRENT OIL - Divergence Led break down from WedgeBrent Oil formed bearish divergence on MACD and then fell down rather aggressively from rising wedge formation. This indicates that bearish pressure will prevail for some time atleast.
Brent rises on geopolitical risks
Oil prices have seen a notable rise, driven by rising tensions in the Middle East that threaten to disrupt crude flows from one of the world's most productive regions. In recent sessions, Brent crude futures have risen 1.27% to $74.84 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) has also seen increases, trading at $71.09.
The escalation of hostilities between Israel and Iranian-backed armed groups, such as Hezbollah, has generated concern in global markets. Israel recently carried out bombings in Beirut, escalating tensions and increasing nervousness about the possible repercussions on the region's energy infrastructure.
However, despite the rise in prices, the oil market remains relatively stable, with U.S. crude inventories reporting an increase of 3.9 million barrels, suggesting adequate supply to cope with any disruption. This abundant supply limits Brent's gains, as many investors believe that OPEC's ability to offset any supply losses could moderate the impact of a prolonged conflict. It is appreciable that while prices could remain elevated in the short term, Iran's oil infrastructure would not be a primary target for Israel, as an attack on these facilities could drive oil prices towards unsustainable levels for the global economy.
In conclusion, as geopolitical tensions continue to affect the oil outlook, the market appears to be well supplied, limiting gains amid uncertainty. Investors are closely monitoring the situation, waiting for a development that could alter this dynamic.
Ion Jauregui - Analyst ActivTrades
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BRENT oilChart: Brent Crude Oil on the 15-minute time frame.
Key Elements:
The green channel shows the price oscillating downward, with the price breaking out of this channel to the upside.
Order blocks (in gray and red) are noted between the $71.5 - $72.5 range, which may act as zones of institutional buying or selling.
MY green prediction line indicates a belief that the price will rise significantly after it hits the liquidity zone around $70.04. This implies that the downward liquidity sweep has potentially completed and now buyers are likely to push the price higher.
Overall Analysis:
Daily: The price filled a liquidity zone around $70 and may be ready to reverse or retrace upward.
15-minute: On a shorter time frame, it seems like you're predicting a breakout from the order block and a bullish move.
This setup could indicate a potential opportunity for a long position if the price respects the order blocks and liquidity fill around the $70 zone
BCO💹
Outlook: Crude Oil has been looking really good breaking bullish since yesterday. We have this 30m Impulse Correction and I am currently waiting for the 6m to show a correction inside this 30m A. Then I will wait for the 1m to do the same Impulse and correct. Lets see if we show signs of bullishness that this thing wants to go up.
NY session bias: Bullish
XBR/USD Analysis: Brent Oil Price Soars After Attack on IsraelXBR/USD Analysis: Brent Oil Price Soars After Attack on Israel
Following Israel's military operation in Lebanon, Iran launched a missile strike on Israel on October 1. Financial markets reacted sharply as soon as the first reports of the attack emerged:
→ U.S. stock indices dropped significantly, and Bitcoin also fell, with BTC/USD nearing the psychological $60,000 mark at yesterday's low.
→ Gold surged to $2670, though supply forces have since curbed the panic buying, and XAU/USD has dropped back below $2650.
Oil prices also spiked. Unlike other financial assets, there has been no correction on the XBR/USD chart today, despite the end of the missile strike on Israel. This highlights oil's heightened sensitivity to Middle Eastern tensions.
According to today’s technical analysis of XBR/USD:
→ Brent oil price movements have formed an upward channel (shown in blue), beginning in early September. Following the news of the missile attack, the price has climbed into the upper half of the channel.
→ Interestingly, just before this surge, the price had hit a multi-week low with a false bearish breakout below the psychological $70 per barrel level.
Given Israel’s vow to retaliate for Iran's strike, it’s reasonable to assume that oil demand may remain high, potentially pushing XBR/USD towards the upper boundary of the channel, surpassing the current resistance at $75.
Brent oil could find support at the median line of the blue channel and the $72.50 level.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Will it break trendline - BRENT?Break above on declining trendline can give huge upside, may or not.. because this is news/event driven rally.. Wait n watch ...
Análise de Mercado: BRENT e GOLD - DiárioPETRÓLEO
Os preços do petróleo caíram no início da sessão europeia, enquanto os mercados descartam as preocupações sobre a escalada de tensões no Médio Oriente e o seu potencial impacto nas reservas de crude, focando-se em vez disso no excesso de oferta e na fraca procura. A China, o maior importador de crude do mundo, tem mostrado uma procura retraída, já que o seu crescimento económico continua a abrandar. Entretanto, a OPEC+, liderada pela Arábia Saudita, parece pronta para aumentar a produção em dezembro. Tendo em conta estes fatores, os preços do Brent deverão permanecer em torno dos níveis atuais, cerca de 70 dólares por barril, com a possibilidade de uma nova descida.
OURO
Os preços do ouro subiram ligeiramente no início desta terça-feira, recuperando parte das perdas das duas sessões anteriores. A procura pelo metal precioso mantém-se forte, com os preços a oscilar abaixo dos máximos históricos da semana passada, devido ao seu estatuto como ativo de refúgio e à perspetiva de taxas de juro mais baixas nos EUA. No entanto, o pacote de estímulos recentemente anunciado pelo banco central da China limitou, em parte, a valorização do ouro. As medidas, que visam revitalizar a enfraquecida economia chinesa, aumentaram o apetite pelo risco nos mercados financeiros, impulsionando especialmente as ações chinesas e desviando algum investimento do ouro. Neste contexto, os traders estão agora atentos a uma série de dados que serão divulgados até ao final da semana, incluindo os números do emprego e os indicadores PMI nos EUA. Leituras fortes podem trazer obstáculos adicionais para o ouro, enquanto dados mais fracos podem reacender a sua trajetória ascendente.
Ricardo Evangelista – Analista Sénior, ActivTrades
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#Gold #Xau #Oil #Brent #Commodities #China #MiddleEastConflict #DolarizeJá
Brent Oil - Potential Upside After Resistance BreakoutBrent is currently testing a key resistance level. If we see a breakout above this resistance, there is a high chance the price will continue upward towards the next target resistance level. It’s important to watch for confirmation signals, such as a close above the resistance or increasing volume, to validate this bullish scenario.
Brent Crude OilBrent is beginning to rise once more in the market. What strategies or actions will you consider to navigate this shift effectively? Will you adjust your investments, analyze market trends, or perhaps explore new opportunities? Your approach could significantly influence your financial decisions moving forward.
BRENT CRUDE OIL may drop in price by as much as -65%Today we would like to share my opinion on the possible price of Brent Crude Oil in the coming years, analyzing the chart on a monthly timeframe
The war in Ukraine is not just a war between the two countries, it is a geopolitical problem that will affect all world economies.
The world's economies have not yet recovered from the Covid-19, and here is another blow.
Expensive energy will stop buying due to the excessive cost of production of "everything", the purchasing power of the population falls. Declining demand for oil will bring down the price.
The fall in the price of Brent oil -25% in the coming months in the area of $78-80 per barrel will be just the beginning.
But looking at the schedule, is striking the price zone of $36-46 to be a strong mirror level and this is -65% of the current price
Maybe this is a fair price for oil, from where a total restart of the world economy can take place by purchasing cheap energy resources.
Perhaps this is symbolic, but for the first time on the historical price chart of Brent, the zone of $36-46 was established as important when there were powerful geopolitical world changes: 1979-1980 - the Islamic Revolution and 1990-1991 - the collapse of the USSR
Brent Crude Oil Price Drops to Yearly LowBrent Crude Oil Price Drops to Yearly Low
When analysing the oil market on the XBR/USD chart on 4th September, with Brent crude trading near its yearly low, we:
→ noted the formation of a descending channel (marked in red);
→ highlighted key support (marked in yellow), which has now been broken;
→ suggested the likelihood of an interim upward correction, potentially rising to $74.50.
Since then, Brent crude oil:
→ climbed to $75;
→ tested the yellow line from below;
→ then reversed downwards, reaffirming the relevance of the red descending channel (as the bullish breakout attempt failed).
Bearish sentiment was fuelled by reports of a potential increase in global oil supply, particularly due to higher production in Libya and Saudi Arabia.
Could Brent crude prices continue to fall?
From a technical analysis perspective of the XBR/USD chart today:
→ The price is in the upper half of the descending channel, indicating that while bears may control the market, it may not be enough to expect a sustained downward trend.
→ Bulls appear to be active as the price nears the psychological level of $70. This was evident with yesterday’s halt in the price decline around $70.60.
→ Price dynamics are revealing clearer signs of an upward channel (shown by the purple lines).
Considering the above, we cannot rule out the possibility of Brent crude making another attempt to break through the upper boundary of the red channel in the near future.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
#BRENT #Bullish_butterfly #buy#1D #buy #r/r=1/2
#In the daily time frame, we see the formation of an ascending butterfly pattern.
BEARISH BIAS ON BRENT CRUDE The market's direction bullish trend reversed at that 1H Supply at $76 per barrel respecting the zone. The previously tested 1H Demand at $72.854 was invalidated at the second touch of the zone breaking structure to the downside making it a probable 1H Bearish breaker block anticipating a retracement back to $72.854 and continuation of sells towards $70.0 as my profit targe.t
BRENT - Potential ShortThere is a potential short coming up on BRENT based on the turning downwards of the stochastic and the crossing of the EMAs. The MACD hasn't crossed yet, but it will if it continues downwards.
It is currently trading at a support level from all the way back to last year between March and June. If it breaks through this level successfully, I am pretty sure we will have a nice downward move, but it might just test it again and move slightly upward. If breached, we are aiming for a target at around the 60 level.
UKOIL TF W 25924wait till price come into the zone and breakup with bid green/red candles
entry (TF 2h,4h)
SL at previous low/high
TP at Fibonacci
Continuation patternWhat we have here is market that is trending up, now we have an expanding triangle pattern followed by a breakout, now we have an opportunity to enter the market after the pullback and go long
WE ONLY TRADE PULLBACKS
LoVE Affair with Black GoldFrom the Castle to the Markets: A Nobleman's Love Affair with Black Gold
Ah, black gold , the very lifeblood of nations—how you move with such power, shaping the world and our fortunes with each fluctuation.
We find ourselves now 20 days deep into our grand BCOUSD trade, and due to recent geopolitical stirrings, the fruits of our patience are beginning to ripen. With barrels of this earth’s precious lubricant secured at the princely sums of $72 and $73, our hedge has proven most fortuitous.
Oh, Oil, you are my sanctuary, my steadfast companion in the turbulent tides of commerce. I understand you, I hear you, I feel you. I know well that you are ascending toward $85 with purpose, driven by forces beyond mere markets.
Though I had anticipated parting ways at 25 days, I now sense that our journey must extend a while longer. You have yet more to offer, and I am not ready to release you from my grasp. I shall remain in this trade, for your allure is undeniable, and I do not wish to part before reaping the full bounty you so generously bestow.
Ah, how fitting it is that I, from the serene halls of my ancestral estate, should be engaged in such noble pursuits. The grand windows of my castle overlook vast lands, but it is the boundless ocean of crude oil where my fortune truly lies. In these hallowed chambers, where portraits of my forebears gaze down with approval, I contemplate each rise and fall of the market with the precision of a master chess player.
Oh, Oil, you are no mere commodity to me—you are the very pulse of the earth, and I, your devoted steward. As you climb toward the glorious $85, I remain vigilant, savoring each movement as one would a fine vintage, knowing that the winds of geopolitics blow in our favor. Though I may tarry longer in this trade than first expected, it is a small price to pay for the rewards that await, as we ascend together toward new heights of wealth and glory.
