AMD, Worst Case Scenario and it still suggests making a new ATH!It seems madness to talk about making a new ATH these days with such a panic in the market due to FED's decision to raise the rates .Please follow the analysis to see if this is really a madness or just being realistic without caring to much about emotions , feelings and NEWS !.
What I am proposing here on the chart as wave count is what I can see as worst case scenario however, I welcome and embrace any more pessimistic wave count which anyone can suggest. So, If you have such a wave count please let me know and let us share our ideas.
I divided the chart into two sections with a vertical line to keep the chart clean and being focused on details of latest moves. I called the left side of the chart as territory of cycle degree wave 1 and 2 which means we are currently in cycle degree wave 3 started on 27th July 2015 at 1.61 USD.
Why I call this wave count as WORST CASE SCENARIO? Since, I considered a completed cycle with start point at 9.04 USD on 4th Apr 2018 and end point at ATH with extended wave 5s in all subdivisions ! As we know extended wave 5 is usual in commodity not stock market . What is common in stock market is extended wave 3 . I remarked extended wave 5s in different wave degrees on the chart. It is really a pessimistic wave count. Yet it is valid .
Considering this wave count as a true one , We are in primary degree correcting wave 4 (circled) and still there is one leg up to new ATH around 180 USD to make cycle degree wave 3 complete. Possible buy zone for this scenario is shown on the chart by green box. If this scenario happens , We will have a big correction at new ATH, Then another massive bull run and after that a big crash ! but, It is to soon to talk about.
In upper left corner of the right side of the chart , I showed a schematic drawing of an extended wave 5 with it's typical retracement. Typically, retracement of an extended wave 5 ends is top of wave 3 or wave 1 of 5. This guideline makes our suggested buy zone even stronger.
WORST CASE SCENARIO implies that we may have more optimistic scenario . Is there any? Of course there is . Since bodies of candles of current down going wave more than likely will enter to the territory of what labeled as wave 3 of (5) of circled 3 in daily time frame, we can consider wave cycle started at 72.5 USD on 13th May 2021 to be completed at ATH on 30th Nov 2021 with extended wave 5 .( There is alternative wave count which also considers this cycle a completed one but makes no difference in terms of price target in broader view). Also , extended minor degree wave 5 for intermediate degree wave (1) can be acceptable since both retracement and correcting pattern satisfies extended wave 5 pattern (See schematic drawing once more ).
But , What about extended wave 5 of (3) starting at 36.75 on 18th Mar 2021 and ending at 99.23 at on 11th Jan 2021? Neither amount of retracement nor the correcting pattern confirms this to be extended wave 5 !. If so, It can be considered as wave 3 of a different cycle with last up going wave (from 72.5 to ATH) being extended wave 5 of same degree and up going wave from 27.43 to 59.27 being wave 1 of same degree. In even more optimistic wave count this can be wave 1 of a new starting smaller degree up going wave cycle ! Try not to be confused ! All of these means that we may have more optimistic scenario with more up going waves with successive new ATHs one after another.
All in All, I assume that in worst case scenario, cycle degree wave 3 is yet to be completed. There are even more optimistic scenarios. Please let me know if you can make a more pessimistic yet valid wave count. As I previously emphasized , I believe AMD will see unbelievable targets in long term.
Hope this analysis to be helpful.
